我国城乡结构与城镇化研究
|
摘要
随着外需对于我国经济高速增长的支撑作用日益减退,内需将成为推动我国经济保持高速增长最重要的驱动力。国家总理李克强曾说过：“城镇化是扩大内需的最大潜力”。改革开放三十多年来,我国的城镇化率从不足20%提高到了超过50%,城镇化速度很快,大量的农民涌入城镇,为我国经济发展源源不断地贡献着廉价劳动力,“人口红利”成为我国经济腾飞的重要支柱,但是我国城镇化的质量并不高,城镇化进程没有带来城乡差距的缩小,反而使得城乡矛盾更加尖锐。为了有利于从质和量两方面全面推进我国的城镇化进程,本文对城镇化的内生机制和影响因素进行深入的分析。
通过对相关理论的回顾,本文以新经济地理学理论以及城乡二元结构理论作为理论基础,把我国国情作为现实基础,构建适用于分析我国城镇化进程的理论模型。并利用我国的现实数据对结论进行了实证检验。通过理论分析和实证检验,本文得到了下列结论：
第一,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的提高、工业品交易成本的降低、耕地的减少以及农业生产的规模化程度的提高是城镇化的推动力：而居民对住房重视程度的提高和房价水平的上升、城镇土地规模的扩张、农产品交易成本的降低以及户籍歧视则构成了城镇化的阻碍。在推动力中,居民消费结构变化的影响举足轻重,而其他因素影响较小。
第二,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的上升、居民对住房重视程度的提高、农村居住环境改善、工农业品交易成本的降低、房价水平的降低、农业生产规模化程度的提高以及工农业生产技术的进步提高了居民福利水平；而人口的增加、耕地的减少和城镇土地规模的扩张则降低了居民的福利水平。
第三,城乡居民之间的实际福利差距略小于名义收入差异。户籍歧视提高城镇居民的福利水平,但是降低农民和农民工的福利水平；对于后者的降低效果远大于对于前者的提高效果,并且对于前者的提高效果日益减弱,而对于后者的降低效果则逐渐增强。相对于城镇居民,农民和农民工对于户籍歧视更为敏感,从而通过自身的调整,在一定程度上削弱了户籍歧视的影响。
第四,按照2011年水平估算,如果完全消除城乡体制造成的户籍歧视,将提高实际城镇化率超过约二十个百分点,并提高农民和农民工福利水平近一倍,但会降低城镇居民福利水平约四分之一。
第五,城镇体系的变化对于城镇化水平的影响较小；城镇的扩张模式受到居民消费结构、企业的市场势力以及工农业品的交易成本的影响,当前我国大多数地区的城镇对于企业的聚集力并不够强。
最后,本文以这些结论为基础,逐一给出了相应的政策建议。通过总结,本文认为城镇化是一项系统工程,推进城镇化不能割裂城乡之间的联系,要兼顾城镇和农村的发展,此外还需要考虑城镇体系建设和城镇发展模式。
本文在理论研究中,创新性地引入了农业生产的规模收益递减和耕地规模有限假设,从而使得理论分析框架更符合我国等发展中国家的情况。此外,通过对于现实中物流运输过程的考察,本文总结出了产品运输的经济体模式,并在此模式下尝试把理论研究的空间视角拓展到二维。
城镇化是一个非常重要同时也是非常复杂的研究主题。本文的研究得到了许多有意义的结论,但还有很多尚待挖掘之处,对这一主题的研究需要继续并深入探索。
As the supporting role of external demands for China's high economic growth increasingly reduced, domestic demand will become the most important driving force to keep China's economy growing at a good clip.Premier Li Keqiang once said that the urbanization is the greatest potential to expand domestic demand. For the last30years of reform and opening-up, China's urbanization rate has risen from less than20%to more than50%, and the urbanization progress is significantly fast with a large number of fanners rushing into cities and towns, who continuously provide cheap labors to our country's economic development. Demographic dividend has become the important pillar of China's economic take-off. But the quality of urbanization in our country is deficiency. The process of urbanization did not narrow the gaps between the urban areas and rural areas;on the contrary, it made contradictions become increasingly acute. In order to advance the urbanization process from the aspects of both quality and quantity, this paper will analyzes both the mechanism and influence factors of urbanization deeply.
After reviewing the relevant theories, this paper builds a theoretical model which is suitable to analyze the urbanization process in China, on the base of the new economic geography theory and the urban&rural dual structure theory as well as on the base of the situation of our country. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper obtained the following conclusions:
Firstly, the driving forces of the urbanization come from four aspects, that is, the increasing of the share of industrial goods in residents' consumption structure, the decreasing of industrial products'transaction costs, the reduction of arable land and the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production. On the other side, there are five aspects that block the process of urbanization, that is, more residents' attentions paid on living houses, a higher level of house prices, the expansion of the urban lands'scale, the reduction of agricultural products'transaction costs and the discrimination on the household registration. Within the driving powers, the most considerable factor is the change of resident consumption structure and the others' influences are relatively small.
Secondly, the factors which can improve the social welfares are the share of industrial goods in residents' consumption structure, more residents'attentions paid on living houses, the improvement of the living environment in rural areas, the decreasing of industrial products' transaction costs, the reduction of household price level the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production, and technology advancements. Conversely, the increasing of populations, the reduction of arable land, and the expansion of the urban lands'scale can reduce the welfare of the residents.
Thirdly, the gaps of actual welfare are slightly less than the differences of the nominal incomes between urban and rural residents. The discrimination on the household registration can increase the urban citizens'welfares while it reduces the migrant workers'and peasants'welfares, and the reduction of the later are far above the increasing the former. At the same time, the increasing effect is becoming weakened and more badly, the decreasing effect of the later gradually becomes enhanced. Compared to urban citizens, migrant workers and peasants are more sensitive to the discrimination on the household registration, and the adjustment by their own weakens the influence of the household register discrimination.
Fourthly, according to the year of2011's level, if the discrimination on the household registration can totally eliminated, the actual urbanization rate will increase by more than twenty percent, and the level of farmers and migrant workers' welfares can be nearly doubled, but the urban citizens'welfare will reduce by about one quarter.
Fifthly, the change of the urban system has little effect on the urbanization level. Urban expansion mode can be affected by the residents' consumption structure, enterprises' market forces as well as the industrial and agricultural products transaction costs. Currently the towns'gather forces for enterprises are not strong enough in most areas of China.
Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations. By summarizing, this paper fingers out that the urbanization is a systematic project, and when we promote urbanization, we need to consider both the development of urban and rural development as well as the connection between the two. In addition we also need to take into account urban system construction and urban development pattern.
During the theoretical research, this paper creatively introduces the hypothesis of the decreasing return to scale of agricultural production and of the limited cultivated land. As a result, it makes the theoretical analysis framework more suitable for the analysis of the conditions in the developing countries such as our country. Furthermore, through the investigation of the logistics transportation patterns in the real world, this paper concludes the new economy model to deal with problem of the production transportation, under which the economic space in the theoretical research is extended from1-dimensional to2-dimensional.
Urbanization is a very important and very complex research topic. This paper obtains many meaningful conclusions on this topic. But there are still plenty of conclusions that can be researched and more studies on this subject are needed to be done in the future.
通过对相关理论的回顾,本文以新经济地理学理论以及城乡二元结构理论作为理论基础,把我国国情作为现实基础,构建适用于分析我国城镇化进程的理论模型。并利用我国的现实数据对结论进行了实证检验。通过理论分析和实证检验,本文得到了下列结论：
第一,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的提高、工业品交易成本的降低、耕地的减少以及农业生产的规模化程度的提高是城镇化的推动力：而居民对住房重视程度的提高和房价水平的上升、城镇土地规模的扩张、农产品交易成本的降低以及户籍歧视则构成了城镇化的阻碍。在推动力中,居民消费结构变化的影响举足轻重,而其他因素影响较小。
第二,居民消费结构中工业品所占份额的上升、居民对住房重视程度的提高、农村居住环境改善、工农业品交易成本的降低、房价水平的降低、农业生产规模化程度的提高以及工农业生产技术的进步提高了居民福利水平；而人口的增加、耕地的减少和城镇土地规模的扩张则降低了居民的福利水平。
第三,城乡居民之间的实际福利差距略小于名义收入差异。户籍歧视提高城镇居民的福利水平,但是降低农民和农民工的福利水平；对于后者的降低效果远大于对于前者的提高效果,并且对于前者的提高效果日益减弱,而对于后者的降低效果则逐渐增强。相对于城镇居民,农民和农民工对于户籍歧视更为敏感,从而通过自身的调整,在一定程度上削弱了户籍歧视的影响。
第四,按照2011年水平估算,如果完全消除城乡体制造成的户籍歧视,将提高实际城镇化率超过约二十个百分点,并提高农民和农民工福利水平近一倍,但会降低城镇居民福利水平约四分之一。
第五,城镇体系的变化对于城镇化水平的影响较小；城镇的扩张模式受到居民消费结构、企业的市场势力以及工农业品的交易成本的影响,当前我国大多数地区的城镇对于企业的聚集力并不够强。
最后,本文以这些结论为基础,逐一给出了相应的政策建议。通过总结,本文认为城镇化是一项系统工程,推进城镇化不能割裂城乡之间的联系,要兼顾城镇和农村的发展,此外还需要考虑城镇体系建设和城镇发展模式。
本文在理论研究中,创新性地引入了农业生产的规模收益递减和耕地规模有限假设,从而使得理论分析框架更符合我国等发展中国家的情况。此外,通过对于现实中物流运输过程的考察,本文总结出了产品运输的经济体模式,并在此模式下尝试把理论研究的空间视角拓展到二维。
城镇化是一个非常重要同时也是非常复杂的研究主题。本文的研究得到了许多有意义的结论,但还有很多尚待挖掘之处,对这一主题的研究需要继续并深入探索。
As the supporting role of external demands for China's high economic growth increasingly reduced, domestic demand will become the most important driving force to keep China's economy growing at a good clip.Premier Li Keqiang once said that the urbanization is the greatest potential to expand domestic demand. For the last30years of reform and opening-up, China's urbanization rate has risen from less than20%to more than50%, and the urbanization progress is significantly fast with a large number of fanners rushing into cities and towns, who continuously provide cheap labors to our country's economic development. Demographic dividend has become the important pillar of China's economic take-off. But the quality of urbanization in our country is deficiency. The process of urbanization did not narrow the gaps between the urban areas and rural areas;on the contrary, it made contradictions become increasingly acute. In order to advance the urbanization process from the aspects of both quality and quantity, this paper will analyzes both the mechanism and influence factors of urbanization deeply.
After reviewing the relevant theories, this paper builds a theoretical model which is suitable to analyze the urbanization process in China, on the base of the new economic geography theory and the urban&rural dual structure theory as well as on the base of the situation of our country. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper obtained the following conclusions:
Firstly, the driving forces of the urbanization come from four aspects, that is, the increasing of the share of industrial goods in residents' consumption structure, the decreasing of industrial products'transaction costs, the reduction of arable land and the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production. On the other side, there are five aspects that block the process of urbanization, that is, more residents' attentions paid on living houses, a higher level of house prices, the expansion of the urban lands'scale, the reduction of agricultural products'transaction costs and the discrimination on the household registration. Within the driving powers, the most considerable factor is the change of resident consumption structure and the others' influences are relatively small.
Secondly, the factors which can improve the social welfares are the share of industrial goods in residents' consumption structure, more residents'attentions paid on living houses, the improvement of the living environment in rural areas, the decreasing of industrial products' transaction costs, the reduction of household price level the advancement in the degree of scale of agricultural production, and technology advancements. Conversely, the increasing of populations, the reduction of arable land, and the expansion of the urban lands'scale can reduce the welfare of the residents.
Thirdly, the gaps of actual welfare are slightly less than the differences of the nominal incomes between urban and rural residents. The discrimination on the household registration can increase the urban citizens'welfares while it reduces the migrant workers'and peasants'welfares, and the reduction of the later are far above the increasing the former. At the same time, the increasing effect is becoming weakened and more badly, the decreasing effect of the later gradually becomes enhanced. Compared to urban citizens, migrant workers and peasants are more sensitive to the discrimination on the household registration, and the adjustment by their own weakens the influence of the household register discrimination.
Fourthly, according to the year of2011's level, if the discrimination on the household registration can totally eliminated, the actual urbanization rate will increase by more than twenty percent, and the level of farmers and migrant workers' welfares can be nearly doubled, but the urban citizens'welfare will reduce by about one quarter.
Fifthly, the change of the urban system has little effect on the urbanization level. Urban expansion mode can be affected by the residents' consumption structure, enterprises' market forces as well as the industrial and agricultural products transaction costs. Currently the towns'gather forces for enterprises are not strong enough in most areas of China.
Finally, based on the above conclusions, this paper gives the corresponding policy recommendations. By summarizing, this paper fingers out that the urbanization is a systematic project, and when we promote urbanization, we need to consider both the development of urban and rural development as well as the connection between the two. In addition we also need to take into account urban system construction and urban development pattern.
During the theoretical research, this paper creatively introduces the hypothesis of the decreasing return to scale of agricultural production and of the limited cultivated land. As a result, it makes the theoretical analysis framework more suitable for the analysis of the conditions in the developing countries such as our country. Furthermore, through the investigation of the logistics transportation patterns in the real world, this paper concludes the new economy model to deal with problem of the production transportation, under which the economic space in the theoretical research is extended from1-dimensional to2-dimensional.
Urbanization is a very important and very complex research topic. This paper obtains many meaningful conclusions on this topic. But there are still plenty of conclusions that can be researched and more studies on this subject are needed to be done in the future.
引文
① 世界银行《东亚经济发肫报告(2006)》提出了“中等收入陷阱"(Middle Income Trap)的概念,基本涵义是指：鲜有中等收入的经济体成功地跻身为高收入国家,这些国家往往陷入了经济增长的停滞期,既无法在工资方面与低收入国家竞争,又无法在尖端技术研发方面与富裕裕家抗衡。
① 参考安虎森等编著的《新经济地理学原理》(经济科学出版社,2009)第一章。
② 库兹涅茨.《现代经济增长》.北京经济学院出版社,1989年。
① 这些称谓不同的分支学科的研究内容是十分相近的,虽然各有侧重点。对这些相关学科概念的评析吖参见殷广卫(2009)。
① 集群是在相对较小的地理区域内,大量集中功能上有关联的专业化厂商而成的相对较大的一种集团(关键是密集)。
① 在现代绎济学中,一种经济思想能台用数学工具模型化似乎是其能否被广泛接受和重视的一个重要因素。这反映了经济学科学化的发展路径,当然也可能使人们忽视了一些非常重要的可能暂时难以模型化的思想。
② Krugman (1979)的题目如实地反映了新贸易理论的这三个关鍵要素,虽然缸得何些死板：“收益递增、垄断竞争与国际贸易”(Increasing returns, monopolistic competition and international trade)。
① 西托夫斯基(Scitovsky,1954)最先区分了金钱外部性与技术外部性。
① 由于这一模型最为基础,因此为视为新经济地理学诞生的标志。其他模型在不同的研究背景下延续着CP模型的核心思想,丰富了新经济地理学的内容。
② 这一部分的理论评述参考了藤田和森(Fujita & Mori,2005)对新经济地理学理论的一个出色的综述。
市场潜能的概念最初来自于哈坐斯(Harris,1954),城市体系模型赋予新的生命力。
① Boeke, J. H., Economics and Economic Policy of Dual Societies as Exemplified by Indonesia. New York: Institute of Pacific Relations,1953.
① Lewis, W. A., Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School Studies,1954.
① Jorgenson, D. W., The Development of a Dual Economy. Economic Journal,1961.
① Harris, J. R. Todaro, M. P. Migration. Unemployment and Development:A Two-sector Analysis. American Economic Review,1970
② 叶普万.贫困经济学研究.西安：西北大学经济管理学院，2003.
① [美]舒尔茨(Theodore W. Schultz)著,梁小民译.改造传统农业.北京：商务印书馆,1987.
① 肖冬连,《中国二元社会结构形成的历史考察》,《中共党史研究》,2005(1)
② 王春光,《大城市在我国社会经济发展中的地位和作用》,《经济研究参考》,1996(2)
① 王本兵.我国城镇化发展的制度创新研究.中国海洋大学,2011
王放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发胜的影响.人口号发展，2011(2)
① 开放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国铖市化发展的影响.人口发展,2011(2)
① 海天,肖炜.我的大学：1970-1976工农兵大学生回忆录.中国友谊出版公司,2009
① 参考《新中国五十五年统计资料汇编》,但是《中国统计年鉴》本项数据为3.6。
中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结.http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
① [日]藤田等著,梁琦等译.《空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易》.中国人民大学出版社,2005
① 可以参考《空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易》(藤旧等兽,梁琦等译,中国人民大学出版社)第八前
② 这里省略了消费抒效用函数的具仆表达式,表达式形式与第二节的式(4-2)相同
当然,经济空间边界没有达到这个水平，新的城镇可能就已经形成了。
① 吕昌文,渐长光,齐灵,修德仁.我国农产品保鲜产业的现状和发展趋势.天津农业科学,1995(4)
① 袁开智,中国农业技术进步率测算及分解[D],中国农业科学院,2008
② 规模弹性又称作生产力弹性,反映了生产力水平的变化。
③ 按1996年统计口径折算。
① 城镇登记失业率计算的是城镇人口中登记失业的比例,在进行剔除时我们假设农民工也存在相同的失业率。当然,现实中农民工的失业情况可能比城镇居民严重。而农民不存在失业问题
① 蔡昉,王炎艳,为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小戢乡差距，《终济学动态》2009年第8期
② 马少晔,皋于劳动力流动视角的城乡收入差距及影响因素再检验，南京农业大学,2011
蔡昉,王美艳,为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小城乡差距,《经济学动态》2009年第8期
[1]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔.经济学原理,朱志泰,陈良璧译.北京：商务印书馆,1981.
[2]阿尔弗雷德·韦伯.工业区位论,李刚剑等译.北京：商务印书馆,2010.
[3]阿瑟·刘易斯.二元经济论.北京经济学院出版社,1983
[4]安虎森等.新区域经济学.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2008
[5]安虎森等.新经济地理学原理.北京：经济科学出版社,2009
[6]皮埃尔-菲利普·库姆斯,蒂里·迈耶,雅克-弗朗索瓦·蒂斯.经济地理学：区域和国家一体化,安虎森等译.中国人民大学出版社,2011
[7]奥古斯特·勒施.经济空间秩序,王守礼译.北京：商务印邓馆,1995
[8]蔡叻,王美艳.为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小城乡差距.经济学动态,2009(8)
[9]杜岩.我国农产品营销渠道优化研究[博士学位论文].泰安：山尔农业大学,2009
[10]费景汉、拉尼斯.增长和发展：演进观点,洪银兴等泽.北京：商务印书馆,2004
[11]海天、肖炜.我的大学：1970-1976 工农兵大学生回忆录.中国友谊出版公司,2009
[12]黄奕.我国农产品物流问题研究[博十学位论文].福州：福建师范大学,2009
[13]李实,罗楚亮.中国城乡居民收入差距的重新估计[J].北京大学学报,2007(2)
[14]李晓西.中国地区间居民收入分配差距研究.北京：人民出版社,2010
[15]李建超.跨越拐点：城镇化加速阶段我国地方政府风险与对策研究[博士学位论文].长沙：湖南师范大学,2008
[16]刘国新.中国特色城镇化制度变迁与制度创新研究[博士学位论文].长春：东北师范大学,2009
[17]刘永红.我国城镇化中的制度变迁研究[博士学位论文].武汉：华中农业大学,2002
[18]陆锦周.中国二元经济结构与城乡统筹发展研究[陴十学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学,2012
[19]吕昌文,蒲长光,齐灵,修德仁.我国农产品保鲜产业的现状和发展趋势.天津农业科学,1995(4)
[20]马少晔.基于劳动力流动视角的城乡收入差距及影u向因素再检验[博十学位论文].南京：南京农业大学,2011
[21]任太增.城市偏向制度下的城乡收入筹距研究[博士学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学,2008
[22]孙华臣.城镇化进程中的城乡收入差距演变及其对经济增长的门限效应[博十学位论文].济南：山东大学,2012
[23]藤田等.空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易,梁琦等泽.北京：中国人民大学出版’社,2005
[24]王本兵.我国城镇化发展的制度创新研究[博士学位论文].青岛：中国海洋大学,2011
[25]王春光.大城市在我国社会经济发展中的地位和作用.经济研究参考,1996(2)
[26]王春光.城乡结构http://wenku.baidu.com/view/b77e972a3169a4517723a326.html
[27]王放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发展的影响.人口与发展,2011(2)
[28]王素善.新中国户籍制度形成和演变过程的历史考察(1949-1978)[博十学位论文].北京：中共中央党校,2002
[29]西奥多.W.舒尔茨.改造传统农业,梁小民泽.北京：商务印书馆,1987.
[30]肖冬连.中国二元社会结构形成的历史考察.中共党史研究,2005(1)
[31]严小龙.“两个反哺”与社会主义新农村建设.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2008(11)
[32]叶普万.贫困经济学研究.西安：西北大学经济管理学院,2003
[33]殷广卫.新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制研究[博士学位论文].天津：南开大学,2009
[34]袁开智.中国农业技术进步率测算及分解[硕士学位论文].北京：中国农业科学院,2008
[35]约翰·冯·杜能.孤立国同农业和国民经济的关系.北京：商务印书馆,1986.
[36]约翰·伊特韦尔,默立·米尔盖特,彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.北京：经济科学出版社,1996.
[37]张弛月.我国居民住房承受力之房价收入比研究[博士学位论文].成都：西南财经大学,2011
[38]张丽凤.中国城镇住房制度变迁中政府行为目标的逻辑演进(1949-2008)[博士学位论文].沈阳：辽宁大学,2009
[39]赵冬辉.中国农村基础设施建设融资问题研究[博士学位论文].哈尔滨：东北林业大学,2012
[40]郑娟尔.土地供应模式和供应量影响房价的理论探索与实证研究[博士学位论文].杭州：浙江大学,2008
[41]中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结.http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
[42]中国科学院国情分析研究小组编.城市与乡村：中国城乡矛盾与协调发展研究.北京：科学,1994
[43]周伟,李想,濮晓鹏,张剑波,王江坤.2011年我国农产品流通状况及特点分析.中国农村科技,2012(6)
[44]Abdel.Rahman H. Product differentiation, monopolistic competition and city size. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1988,18:69-86.
[45]Abdel.Rahman H, Fujita M. Product variety, Marshallian externalities, and city sizes. Journal of Regional Science,1990,30:165-183.
[46]Baldwin R E, Forslid R, Martin P, et al. Economic geography and public policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2003.
[47]Baldwin R E, Martin P, Ottaviano G I P. Global income divergence, trade and industrialization:The geography of growth take.off. Journal of Economic Growth,2001,6: 5-37.
[48]Boeke, J. H., Economics and Economic Policy of Dual Societies as Exemplified by Indonesia. New York:Institute of Pacific Relations.1953.
[49]Cronon W. Nature's megalopolis:Chicago and the Great West [M]. New York; Norton,1991.
[50]Dixit A K, Stiglitz J E. Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. American Economic Review,1977,67:297-308.
[51]Fujita M. A monopolistic competition model of spatial agglomeration. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1988,8:87-124.
[52]Fujita M, Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric?:von Thunen and Chamberlin unified. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:508-528.
[53]Fujita M, Krugman P. The new economic geography:Past, present and the future. Papers in Regional Science,2003,83:139-164.
[54]Fujita M, Krugman P, Mori T.On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems, European Economic Review,1999,43:209-251.
[55]Fujita M, Krugman P, Venables A J. The spatial economy:Cities, regions and international Trade. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1999.
[56]Fujita M, Mori T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27:399-442.
[57]Fujita M, Mori T. Frontiers of the new economic geography. Papers in Regional Science, 2005,84(3):377-405.
[58]Harris, J. R. Todaro, M. P. Migration, "Unemployment and Development:A Two.sector Analysis". American Economic Review.1970.
[59]Helpman E, Krugman P. Market structure and foreign trade:Increasing returns, imperfect competition and the international economy. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1985.
[60]Henderson J V. The sizes and types of cities. American Economic Review,1974,64: 640-656.
[61]Henderson J V. The impact of government policies on urban concentration. Journal of Urban Economics,1982a,12:280-303.
[62]Henderson J V. Systems of cities in closed and open economies. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1982b,12:325-350.
[63]Hirschman A O. The strategy of economic development. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1958.
[64]Hochman O. Land rents, optimal taxation, and local fiscal independence in an economy with local public goods. Journal of Public Economics,1981,15(1):59-85.
[65]Jorgenson, D. W., The Development of a Dual Economy. Economic Journal (71).1961.
[66]Koopmans T C. Three essays on the state of economic science. New York:McGraw.Hill, 1957.
[67]Krugman P. First nature, second nature, and metropolitan location. Journal of Regional Science,1993,33:129-144.
[68]Krugman P. Increasing return, monopolistic competitions and international trade. Journal of International Economics,1979,9:467-479.
[69]Krugman P. Geography and trade. Cambridge:MIT Press,1991a.
[70]Krugman P. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy, 1991b,99(3):483-499.
[71]Krugman P, Venables A J. Globalization and the inequality of nations. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,60:857-880.
[72]Krugman P. What's new about the new economic geography?. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998,14(2):7.17.
[73]Mori T. A modelling of megalopolis formation:the maturing of city systems. Journal of Urban Economics,1997,42:133-157.
[74]Pred A R. The spatial dynamics of U.S. urban.industrial growth,1800.1914:Interpretive and theoretical essays. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1966.
[75]Scitovsky T. Two concepts of external economies. Journal of Political Economy,1954,62(2): 143-151.
[76]Upton C. An equilibrium model of city sizes. Journal of Urban Economics,1981,10:15-36.
① 参考安虎森等编著的《新经济地理学原理》(经济科学出版社,2009)第一章。
② 库兹涅茨.《现代经济增长》.北京经济学院出版社,1989年。
① 这些称谓不同的分支学科的研究内容是十分相近的,虽然各有侧重点。对这些相关学科概念的评析吖参见殷广卫(2009)。
① 集群是在相对较小的地理区域内,大量集中功能上有关联的专业化厂商而成的相对较大的一种集团(关键是密集)。
① 在现代绎济学中,一种经济思想能台用数学工具模型化似乎是其能否被广泛接受和重视的一个重要因素。这反映了经济学科学化的发展路径,当然也可能使人们忽视了一些非常重要的可能暂时难以模型化的思想。
② Krugman (1979)的题目如实地反映了新贸易理论的这三个关鍵要素,虽然缸得何些死板：“收益递增、垄断竞争与国际贸易”(Increasing returns, monopolistic competition and international trade)。
① 西托夫斯基(Scitovsky,1954)最先区分了金钱外部性与技术外部性。
① 由于这一模型最为基础,因此为视为新经济地理学诞生的标志。其他模型在不同的研究背景下延续着CP模型的核心思想,丰富了新经济地理学的内容。
② 这一部分的理论评述参考了藤田和森(Fujita & Mori,2005)对新经济地理学理论的一个出色的综述。
市场潜能的概念最初来自于哈坐斯(Harris,1954),城市体系模型赋予新的生命力。
① Boeke, J. H., Economics and Economic Policy of Dual Societies as Exemplified by Indonesia. New York: Institute of Pacific Relations,1953.
① Lewis, W. A., Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School Studies,1954.
① Jorgenson, D. W., The Development of a Dual Economy. Economic Journal,1961.
① Harris, J. R. Todaro, M. P. Migration. Unemployment and Development:A Two-sector Analysis. American Economic Review,1970
② 叶普万.贫困经济学研究.西安：西北大学经济管理学院，2003.
① [美]舒尔茨(Theodore W. Schultz)著,梁小民译.改造传统农业.北京：商务印书馆,1987.
① 肖冬连,《中国二元社会结构形成的历史考察》,《中共党史研究》,2005(1)
② 王春光,《大城市在我国社会经济发展中的地位和作用》,《经济研究参考》,1996(2)
① 王本兵.我国城镇化发展的制度创新研究.中国海洋大学,2011
王放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发胜的影响.人口号发展，2011(2)
① 开放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国铖市化发展的影响.人口发展,2011(2)
① 海天,肖炜.我的大学：1970-1976工农兵大学生回忆录.中国友谊出版公司,2009
① 参考《新中国五十五年统计资料汇编》,但是《中国统计年鉴》本项数据为3.6。
中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结.http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
① [日]藤田等著,梁琦等译.《空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易》.中国人民大学出版社,2005
① 可以参考《空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易》(藤旧等兽,梁琦等译,中国人民大学出版社)第八前
② 这里省略了消费抒效用函数的具仆表达式,表达式形式与第二节的式(4-2)相同
当然,经济空间边界没有达到这个水平，新的城镇可能就已经形成了。
① 吕昌文,渐长光,齐灵,修德仁.我国农产品保鲜产业的现状和发展趋势.天津农业科学,1995(4)
① 袁开智,中国农业技术进步率测算及分解[D],中国农业科学院,2008
② 规模弹性又称作生产力弹性,反映了生产力水平的变化。
③ 按1996年统计口径折算。
① 城镇登记失业率计算的是城镇人口中登记失业的比例,在进行剔除时我们假设农民工也存在相同的失业率。当然,现实中农民工的失业情况可能比城镇居民严重。而农民不存在失业问题
① 蔡昉,王炎艳,为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小戢乡差距，《终济学动态》2009年第8期
② 马少晔,皋于劳动力流动视角的城乡收入差距及影响因素再检验，南京农业大学,2011
蔡昉,王美艳,为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小城乡差距,《经济学动态》2009年第8期
[1]阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔.经济学原理,朱志泰,陈良璧译.北京：商务印书馆,1981.
[2]阿尔弗雷德·韦伯.工业区位论,李刚剑等译.北京：商务印书馆,2010.
[3]阿瑟·刘易斯.二元经济论.北京经济学院出版社,1983
[4]安虎森等.新区域经济学.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2008
[5]安虎森等.新经济地理学原理.北京：经济科学出版社,2009
[6]皮埃尔-菲利普·库姆斯,蒂里·迈耶,雅克-弗朗索瓦·蒂斯.经济地理学：区域和国家一体化,安虎森等译.中国人民大学出版社,2011
[7]奥古斯特·勒施.经济空间秩序,王守礼译.北京：商务印邓馆,1995
[8]蔡叻,王美艳.为什么劳动力流动没有能够缩小城乡差距.经济学动态,2009(8)
[9]杜岩.我国农产品营销渠道优化研究[博士学位论文].泰安：山尔农业大学,2009
[10]费景汉、拉尼斯.增长和发展：演进观点,洪银兴等泽.北京：商务印书馆,2004
[11]海天、肖炜.我的大学：1970-1976 工农兵大学生回忆录.中国友谊出版公司,2009
[12]黄奕.我国农产品物流问题研究[博十学位论文].福州：福建师范大学,2009
[13]李实,罗楚亮.中国城乡居民收入差距的重新估计[J].北京大学学报,2007(2)
[14]李晓西.中国地区间居民收入分配差距研究.北京：人民出版社,2010
[15]李建超.跨越拐点：城镇化加速阶段我国地方政府风险与对策研究[博士学位论文].长沙：湖南师范大学,2008
[16]刘国新.中国特色城镇化制度变迁与制度创新研究[博士学位论文].长春：东北师范大学,2009
[17]刘永红.我国城镇化中的制度变迁研究[博士学位论文].武汉：华中农业大学,2002
[18]陆锦周.中国二元经济结构与城乡统筹发展研究[陴十学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学,2012
[19]吕昌文,蒲长光,齐灵,修德仁.我国农产品保鲜产业的现状和发展趋势.天津农业科学,1995(4)
[20]马少晔.基于劳动力流动视角的城乡收入差距及影u向因素再检验[博十学位论文].南京：南京农业大学,2011
[21]任太增.城市偏向制度下的城乡收入筹距研究[博士学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学,2008
[22]孙华臣.城镇化进程中的城乡收入差距演变及其对经济增长的门限效应[博十学位论文].济南：山东大学,2012
[23]藤田等.空间经济学：城市、区域与国际贸易,梁琦等泽.北京：中国人民大学出版’社,2005
[24]王本兵.我国城镇化发展的制度创新研究[博士学位论文].青岛：中国海洋大学,2011
[25]王春光.大城市在我国社会经济发展中的地位和作用.经济研究参考,1996(2)
[26]王春光.城乡结构http://wenku.baidu.com/view/b77e972a3169a4517723a326.html
[27]王放.市镇设置标准及城镇人口统计口径对中国城市化发展的影响.人口与发展,2011(2)
[28]王素善.新中国户籍制度形成和演变过程的历史考察(1949-1978)[博十学位论文].北京：中共中央党校,2002
[29]西奥多.W.舒尔茨.改造传统农业,梁小民泽.北京：商务印书馆,1987.
[30]肖冬连.中国二元社会结构形成的历史考察.中共党史研究,2005(1)
[31]严小龙.“两个反哺”与社会主义新农村建设.北京：社会科学文献出版社,2008(11)
[32]叶普万.贫困经济学研究.西安：西北大学经济管理学院,2003
[33]殷广卫.新经济地理学视角下的产业集聚机制研究[博士学位论文].天津：南开大学,2009
[34]袁开智.中国农业技术进步率测算及分解[硕士学位论文].北京：中国农业科学院,2008
[35]约翰·冯·杜能.孤立国同农业和国民经济的关系.北京：商务印书馆,1986.
[36]约翰·伊特韦尔,默立·米尔盖特,彼得·纽曼编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.北京：经济科学出版社,1996.
[37]张弛月.我国居民住房承受力之房价收入比研究[博士学位论文].成都：西南财经大学,2011
[38]张丽凤.中国城镇住房制度变迁中政府行为目标的逻辑演进(1949-2008)[博士学位论文].沈阳：辽宁大学,2009
[39]赵冬辉.中国农村基础设施建设融资问题研究[博士学位论文].哈尔滨：东北林业大学,2012
[40]郑娟尔.土地供应模式和供应量影响房价的理论探索与实证研究[博士学位论文].杭州：浙江大学,2008
[41]中国住房制度改革30年回顾与总结.http://news.hit.edu.cn/articles/2008/12-02/12163402.htm
[42]中国科学院国情分析研究小组编.城市与乡村：中国城乡矛盾与协调发展研究.北京：科学,1994
[43]周伟,李想,濮晓鹏,张剑波,王江坤.2011年我国农产品流通状况及特点分析.中国农村科技,2012(6)
[44]Abdel.Rahman H. Product differentiation, monopolistic competition and city size. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1988,18:69-86.
[45]Abdel.Rahman H, Fujita M. Product variety, Marshallian externalities, and city sizes. Journal of Regional Science,1990,30:165-183.
[46]Baldwin R E, Forslid R, Martin P, et al. Economic geography and public policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press,2003.
[47]Baldwin R E, Martin P, Ottaviano G I P. Global income divergence, trade and industrialization:The geography of growth take.off. Journal of Economic Growth,2001,6: 5-37.
[48]Boeke, J. H., Economics and Economic Policy of Dual Societies as Exemplified by Indonesia. New York:Institute of Pacific Relations.1953.
[49]Cronon W. Nature's megalopolis:Chicago and the Great West [M]. New York; Norton,1991.
[50]Dixit A K, Stiglitz J E. Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. American Economic Review,1977,67:297-308.
[51]Fujita M. A monopolistic competition model of spatial agglomeration. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1988,8:87-124.
[52]Fujita M, Krugman P. When is the economy monocentric?:von Thunen and Chamberlin unified. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1995,25:508-528.
[53]Fujita M, Krugman P. The new economic geography:Past, present and the future. Papers in Regional Science,2003,83:139-164.
[54]Fujita M, Krugman P, Mori T.On the Evolution of Hierarchical Urban Systems, European Economic Review,1999,43:209-251.
[55]Fujita M, Krugman P, Venables A J. The spatial economy:Cities, regions and international Trade. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1999.
[56]Fujita M, Mori T. Structural stability and evolution of urban systems. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1997,27:399-442.
[57]Fujita M, Mori T. Frontiers of the new economic geography. Papers in Regional Science, 2005,84(3):377-405.
[58]Harris, J. R. Todaro, M. P. Migration, "Unemployment and Development:A Two.sector Analysis". American Economic Review.1970.
[59]Helpman E, Krugman P. Market structure and foreign trade:Increasing returns, imperfect competition and the international economy. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1985.
[60]Henderson J V. The sizes and types of cities. American Economic Review,1974,64: 640-656.
[61]Henderson J V. The impact of government policies on urban concentration. Journal of Urban Economics,1982a,12:280-303.
[62]Henderson J V. Systems of cities in closed and open economies. Regional Science and Urban Economics,1982b,12:325-350.
[63]Hirschman A O. The strategy of economic development. New Haven:Yale University Press, 1958.
[64]Hochman O. Land rents, optimal taxation, and local fiscal independence in an economy with local public goods. Journal of Public Economics,1981,15(1):59-85.
[65]Jorgenson, D. W., The Development of a Dual Economy. Economic Journal (71).1961.
[66]Koopmans T C. Three essays on the state of economic science. New York:McGraw.Hill, 1957.
[67]Krugman P. First nature, second nature, and metropolitan location. Journal of Regional Science,1993,33:129-144.
[68]Krugman P. Increasing return, monopolistic competitions and international trade. Journal of International Economics,1979,9:467-479.
[69]Krugman P. Geography and trade. Cambridge:MIT Press,1991a.
[70]Krugman P. Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy, 1991b,99(3):483-499.
[71]Krugman P, Venables A J. Globalization and the inequality of nations. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1995,60:857-880.
[72]Krugman P. What's new about the new economic geography?. Oxford Review of Economic Policy,1998,14(2):7.17.
[73]Mori T. A modelling of megalopolis formation:the maturing of city systems. Journal of Urban Economics,1997,42:133-157.
[74]Pred A R. The spatial dynamics of U.S. urban.industrial growth,1800.1914:Interpretive and theoretical essays. Cambridge and Massachusetts:MIT Press,1966.
[75]Scitovsky T. Two concepts of external economies. Journal of Political Economy,1954,62(2): 143-151.
[76]Upton C. An equilibrium model of city sizes. Journal of Urban Economics,1981,10:15-36.