内蒙古电网负荷特性分析及其预测
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摘要
近几年,内蒙古电网的电力市场变化很大,进入“十五”以来,随着内蒙古经济突飞猛进的增长,内蒙古电力负荷增长迅速,负荷结构和特性也发生了很大的变化,2008年8月以后,受国际金融危机的影响,内蒙古电网负荷出现大幅下滑,负荷发展趋势突变,未来负荷发展的趋势和恢复的过程受各种因素影响变数很大,本文通过对内蒙古电网历史数据的分析研究,合理预测内蒙古电网未来负荷的发展趋势,为有关部门提供决策依据。本文首先介绍了内蒙古电网的发展状况和内蒙古经济发展特点,然后对内蒙古电网2000-2008年的负荷特性及其变化进行分析,研究影响负荷特性的主要因素,最后结合内蒙古电网的实际状况对未来几年的负荷发展进行了预测。
In recent years, Inner Mongolia Power Grid's electricity market has changed dramatically, Since 10th 5-year Plan, along with rapid economic growth in the growth of Inner Mongolia, the rapid growth of power load, load structure and characteristics of great changes have taken place.After August 2008, by the international financial crisis, There is a sharp decline in Inner Mongolia power grid load, load trends transform。the future load trend of development and recovery process is affected by various factors, variables large, this paper, the Inner Mongolia Power Grid analysis of historical data and reasonable Inner Mongolia Power Grid load forecasting future trends for the relevant departments to provide basis for decision making. This article describes the development of Inner Mongolia and Inner Mongolia Power Grid features of economic development. Inner Mongolia Power Grid 2000-2008 and then the load characteristics and changes in analysis, research load characteristics of the main factors affecting the end, combining the actual situation of Inner Mongolia Power Grid load on the development of the next few years was predicted.
In recent years, Inner Mongolia Power Grid's electricity market has changed dramatically, Since 10th 5-year Plan, along with rapid economic growth in the growth of Inner Mongolia, the rapid growth of power load, load structure and characteristics of great changes have taken place.After August 2008, by the international financial crisis, There is a sharp decline in Inner Mongolia power grid load, load trends transform。the future load trend of development and recovery process is affected by various factors, variables large, this paper, the Inner Mongolia Power Grid analysis of historical data and reasonable Inner Mongolia Power Grid load forecasting future trends for the relevant departments to provide basis for decision making. This article describes the development of Inner Mongolia and Inner Mongolia Power Grid features of economic development. Inner Mongolia Power Grid 2000-2008 and then the load characteristics and changes in analysis, research load characteristics of the main factors affecting the end, combining the actual situation of Inner Mongolia Power Grid load on the development of the next few years was predicted.
引文
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[3]王宝乐.电力统计工作指南.北京：中国统计出版社,2002.97-133
[4]成巧.陕西电网负荷特性研究.陕西电力,2007.39-43
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[6]杨宗麟.华东电网负荷特性分析预测.华东电力2008,36(5)：50-52
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[9]K. Methaprayoon, W. Lee, S. Rasmiddattaa, J. Lia and R. Ross, "Multistage Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecasting Engine With Front-End Weather Forecast," IEEE Industrial Applications, vol.43, no.6, pp.1410-1416,2007.
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[11]I. Moghram and S. Rahman, "Analysis and evaluation of five short-term loadforecasting techniques," IEEE Trans Power Syst., vol.4, no.4, pp. 1484-1491, Nov.1989.
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[13]李钷,李敏,刘涤尘.基于改进回归法的电力负荷预测[J].电网技术,2006,30(1)：99-104.
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[15]霍成军.电力系统负荷特性分析研究：[硕士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2007
[16]卢兆军.山东省近期电力市场研究：[硕士学位论文].上海：复旦大学,2008
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[18]王俊梅,杨海峰.重庆电网电力负荷特性分析.重庆电力,2007,2(2)：1-6
[19]赵锡平,宋岱,张国庆,等.山东省气温与最大负荷和用电量的关联性分析.电网技术,2004,28(17)：37-39
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[24]A. D. Papalexopoulos and T. C. Hesterberg, "A regression-based approach to short-term system load forecasting," IEEE Trans Power Syst., vol.5, no.4, pp.1535-1547, Nov.1990.
[25]N. Amjady, "Short-term hourly load forecasting using time-series odelingwith peak load estimation capability," EEE Trans Power Syst., vol.15, no.3, pp.498-505, Aug.2001.
[26]Julio G.Mayordomo, Load and Voltage Balancing in Harnonic Power Flow by Means of Static Var Compensators, IEEE Trans on Power Delivery, vol.17, No.3, July 2002.
[27]宗慧敏,腾欢.电力系统负荷预测技术.四川电力技术,2009,32(1)：36-39
[28]李新炜,王子琦,方鸣,等.基于分区逐时气象信息的全网负荷预测研究.电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(3)：36-40
[29]熊会林,刘子伟,张立树.大用户法在电力负荷预测中的应用.湖北电力,2009,33(1)：66-68
[30]尹琦,刘青丽.地区级电网负荷特性及其影响因素分析.四川电力技术,2009,32(1)：65-68
[31]J. W. Taylor, "Evaluating volatility and interval forecasts," J. Forecast., vol.18, pp.111-128,1999.
[32]王琦.负荷特性分析预测与需求侧管理研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[33]洪志鹏.基于响应空间的负荷特性研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2007
[34]张春明.无锡市电力负荷特性及DSM分析：[硕士学位论文].南京：东南大学,2006
[35]黄宗彬.组合预测方法在电力系统负荷预测中的应用研究.电气开关,2009,09(5)64-66
[36]王晓婷,张亮如,王晓萍.临汾电网负荷预测分析与探讨.山西电力,2009,156(5)：8-12
[37]崔凯,李敬如,陈伟.城市电网负荷预测方法研究.电力技术经济,2009,21(4)：33-38
[38]黄元生,张惠娟. 灰色关联度组合权在电力负荷预测中的应用.华东电力,2009,37(2)0226-0228
[39]杨克,刘杨. 城南电网负荷预测的影响因素及预测方法浅析.江西电力职业技术学院学报,2009,22(1)33-38
[40]周星明. 银川城市电力负荷特点分析与中长期预测.供用电,2009,26(5)33-36
[41]邓纭. 常用电力负荷预测方法简议.海南电力技术,2009,09(2)10-13
[42]Palacio D R. Simple model for load forecast weather sensitive[J]. cired.16th International Conference and Exhibition on (IEE Conf. Publ No.482).2001.4 (3):18-21
[43]Contaxi E G.Kavatza S.Application of a weather-sensitive peak load forecasting modle to the Hellenic system [C]. In:Electrotechnical Conference.2004. MELECON 2004. Proceedings of the 12th IEEE Mediterranean.2004(3):819-822
[44]Chen C S.Hwang J C. Tzeng Y M et al.Determination of customer load characteristics by load survey system at Taipower[J]. TIEEE PD-11 (3). July 1996:1430-1436
[45]Chen C S, Kang C S, Hwang J C.et al.Temperature adaptive switching operation for distribution systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery.2001.16(4):694-699
[46]周泉,鲍茜,牛艳君.电力负荷预测方法及应用实例分析.湖此电力,32卷增刊：88-90
[47]陈爽.城市区域电网负荷预测的实践.供用电,25(6)：20-23
[48]常延明,邓丽敏.黑河城区“十一五”期间电量负荷预测.黑龙江电力,29(6)：430-432
[49]李小锐,黎灿兵,袁彦.基于下级负荷预测的短期负荷预测新算法.江西电力职业技术学院学报,21(2)：22-25
[50]周俊.电力市场预测及分析系统可行性研究.贵州电力技术,109(7)：72-73
[51]Li Ying, Flynn P C. Power in deregulated markets [C]//Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Genneral Meeting, Hong Kong,2003:874-879
[52]Huang Kaizhu, Yang Haiqin, King Irwin. Learning classifiers from imbalanced data based on biased minimax probability machine[C]//Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Patten Recognition, San Francisco, USA,2004(30):903-908
[53]Lanckriet G R G, Ghaoui L E, Bhattacharyya C. Minimax probability machine[C]//Proccedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing System:Berkley,USA,2002:1-7
[54]Strohmann T, Grudic G Z. A formulation for minimax probability machine[C]//Neural Information Processing System:Natural and Synthetic, Vancouver, Canada:2002
[55]Shcolkope B, Smola A. Learning with Kernels:Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization and Beyond[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Pres,2002
[56]陈伟,周峰,韩新阳.国家电网负荷特性分析研究.电力技术经济,20(4)：25-29
[57]赵娟.西北电网负荷特性分析.陕西电力,09(04)：76-79
[58]唐永红,郑晓雨.基于多曲线拟合的负荷模型综合研究.现代电力,26(5)：7-10
[59]刘达,戚庆茹,叶艳.京津唐电网负荷特性分析.电力需求侧管理,11(3)：34-37
[60]骆正义,贝宇,李如琦等.桂林电网负荷特性分析及探讨,广西电力,07(6)：49-51
[2]原媛,电力负荷特性分析及中长期负荷预测方法：[硕士学位论文].上海：上海交通大学,2008
[3]王宝乐.电力统计工作指南.北京：中国统计出版社,2002.97-133
[4]成巧.陕西电网负荷特性研究.陕西电力,2007.39-43
[5]李旭前、孙士云.云南电网负荷特性研究初探. 云南电力技术,2007,35(1)：10-11
[6]杨宗麟.华东电网负荷特性分析预测.华东电力2008,36(5)：50-52
[7]冯沛儒,朱刘柱,陈煜.安徽电网“十五”时期及2006年负荷特性分析.电力市场与预测,2007,19(4)：32-35
[8]J. W. Taylor and R. Buizza, "Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting," Int. J. Forecast.,2002, to be published.
[9]K. Methaprayoon, W. Lee, S. Rasmiddattaa, J. Lia and R. Ross, "Multistage Artificial Neural Network Short-Term Load Forecasting Engine With Front-End Weather Forecast," IEEE Industrial Applications, vol.43, no.6, pp.1410-1416,2007.
[10]W. Charytoniuk and M. Chen, "Very Short-term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks," IEEE Trans. Power Systems, vol.15, no.1, pp. 263-268,2000.
[11]I. Moghram and S. Rahman, "Analysis and evaluation of five short-term loadforecasting techniques," IEEE Trans Power Syst., vol.4, no.4, pp. 1484-1491, Nov.1989.
[12]权轶.电网负荷与温度关系研究：[硕士学位论文].武汉：华中科技大学,2006
[13]李钷,李敏,刘涤尘.基于改进回归法的电力负荷预测[J].电网技术,2006,30(1)：99-104.
[14]刘勇.河北南网负荷特性分析与负荷预测研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2007
[15]霍成军.电力系统负荷特性分析研究：[硕士学位论文].天津：天津大学,2007
[16]卢兆军.山东省近期电力市场研究：[硕士学位论文].上海：复旦大学,2008
[17]候雪波.湖南电网“十五”期间负荷特性分析.华中电力,2007,20(4)：32-35
[18]王俊梅,杨海峰.重庆电网电力负荷特性分析.重庆电力,2007,2(2)：1-6
[19]赵锡平,宋岱,张国庆,等.山东省气温与最大负荷和用电量的关联性分析.电网技术,2004,28(17)：37-39
[20]辛刚,韩德顺,张健.山东电网负荷特性分析.山东电力技术,2009
[21]王颖,彭澎.考虑不确定性的城市电网空间负荷预测方法.电力科学与工程,2009,25(2)：24-26
[22]刘达,牛东晓,杨光.电力市场中的电价影响因素.陕西,陕西电力,2009
[23]H. S. Hippert, C. E. Pedreira, and R. C. Souza, "Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: A review and evaluation," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol.16, pp.44-55, 2001.
[24]A. D. Papalexopoulos and T. C. Hesterberg, "A regression-based approach to short-term system load forecasting," IEEE Trans Power Syst., vol.5, no.4, pp.1535-1547, Nov.1990.
[25]N. Amjady, "Short-term hourly load forecasting using time-series odelingwith peak load estimation capability," EEE Trans Power Syst., vol.15, no.3, pp.498-505, Aug.2001.
[26]Julio G.Mayordomo, Load and Voltage Balancing in Harnonic Power Flow by Means of Static Var Compensators, IEEE Trans on Power Delivery, vol.17, No.3, July 2002.
[27]宗慧敏,腾欢.电力系统负荷预测技术.四川电力技术,2009,32(1)：36-39
[28]李新炜,王子琦,方鸣,等.基于分区逐时气象信息的全网负荷预测研究.电力系统保护与控制,2009,37(3)：36-40
[29]熊会林,刘子伟,张立树.大用户法在电力负荷预测中的应用.湖北电力,2009,33(1)：66-68
[30]尹琦,刘青丽.地区级电网负荷特性及其影响因素分析.四川电力技术,2009,32(1)：65-68
[31]J. W. Taylor, "Evaluating volatility and interval forecasts," J. Forecast., vol.18, pp.111-128,1999.
[32]王琦.负荷特性分析预测与需求侧管理研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2006
[33]洪志鹏.基于响应空间的负荷特性研究：[硕士学位论文].北京：华北电力大学,2007
[34]张春明.无锡市电力负荷特性及DSM分析：[硕士学位论文].南京：东南大学,2006
[35]黄宗彬.组合预测方法在电力系统负荷预测中的应用研究.电气开关,2009,09(5)64-66
[36]王晓婷,张亮如,王晓萍.临汾电网负荷预测分析与探讨.山西电力,2009,156(5)：8-12
[37]崔凯,李敬如,陈伟.城市电网负荷预测方法研究.电力技术经济,2009,21(4)：33-38
[38]黄元生,张惠娟. 灰色关联度组合权在电力负荷预测中的应用.华东电力,2009,37(2)0226-0228
[39]杨克,刘杨. 城南电网负荷预测的影响因素及预测方法浅析.江西电力职业技术学院学报,2009,22(1)33-38
[40]周星明. 银川城市电力负荷特点分析与中长期预测.供用电,2009,26(5)33-36
[41]邓纭. 常用电力负荷预测方法简议.海南电力技术,2009,09(2)10-13
[42]Palacio D R. Simple model for load forecast weather sensitive[J]. cired.16th International Conference and Exhibition on (IEE Conf. Publ No.482).2001.4 (3):18-21
[43]Contaxi E G.Kavatza S.Application of a weather-sensitive peak load forecasting modle to the Hellenic system [C]. In:Electrotechnical Conference.2004. MELECON 2004. Proceedings of the 12th IEEE Mediterranean.2004(3):819-822
[44]Chen C S.Hwang J C. Tzeng Y M et al.Determination of customer load characteristics by load survey system at Taipower[J]. TIEEE PD-11 (3). July 1996:1430-1436
[45]Chen C S, Kang C S, Hwang J C.et al.Temperature adaptive switching operation for distribution systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery.2001.16(4):694-699
[46]周泉,鲍茜,牛艳君.电力负荷预测方法及应用实例分析.湖此电力,32卷增刊：88-90
[47]陈爽.城市区域电网负荷预测的实践.供用电,25(6)：20-23
[48]常延明,邓丽敏.黑河城区“十一五”期间电量负荷预测.黑龙江电力,29(6)：430-432
[49]李小锐,黎灿兵,袁彦.基于下级负荷预测的短期负荷预测新算法.江西电力职业技术学院学报,21(2)：22-25
[50]周俊.电力市场预测及分析系统可行性研究.贵州电力技术,109(7)：72-73
[51]Li Ying, Flynn P C. Power in deregulated markets [C]//Proceedings of the IEEE Power Engineering Society Genneral Meeting, Hong Kong,2003:874-879
[52]Huang Kaizhu, Yang Haiqin, King Irwin. Learning classifiers from imbalanced data based on biased minimax probability machine[C]//Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Patten Recognition, San Francisco, USA,2004(30):903-908
[53]Lanckriet G R G, Ghaoui L E, Bhattacharyya C. Minimax probability machine[C]//Proccedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing System:Berkley,USA,2002:1-7
[54]Strohmann T, Grudic G Z. A formulation for minimax probability machine[C]//Neural Information Processing System:Natural and Synthetic, Vancouver, Canada:2002
[55]Shcolkope B, Smola A. Learning with Kernels:Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization and Beyond[M]. Cambridge, MA:MIT Pres,2002
[56]陈伟,周峰,韩新阳.国家电网负荷特性分析研究.电力技术经济,20(4)：25-29
[57]赵娟.西北电网负荷特性分析.陕西电力,09(04)：76-79
[58]唐永红,郑晓雨.基于多曲线拟合的负荷模型综合研究.现代电力,26(5)：7-10
[59]刘达,戚庆茹,叶艳.京津唐电网负荷特性分析.电力需求侧管理,11(3)：34-37
[60]骆正义,贝宇,李如琦等.桂林电网负荷特性分析及探讨,广西电力,07(6)：49-51