湖南湘西龙山莲花洞近2000年来气候变化石笋记录研究
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摘要
在全球变暖,极端天气频发的气候背景下,中国各地极端天气频发,如2009-2010年的西南大旱、2012年7月21日北京地区的特大暴雨等,给人民的生产生活、生命财产带来了巨大的威胁,也引起了国家领导层面的关注,所以应对极端天气／气候成为目前亟待解决的问题,但是由于气象记录相对较短,对极端天气的研究和分析有限,所以很有必要加强对过去历史时期极端天气变化规律的研究,探索其形成原因。因此作者提出利用洞穴石笋研究过去2000年来极端事件这个课题。通过对莲花洞LHD1和LHD3两根石笋的230Th年代学、碳氧同位素、微量元素、沉积结构的系统研究,得出以下主要认识：
(1)莲花洞石笋LHD1和LHD3石笋均为文石石笋,有着高的U含量(238U>3ppm),相对高的沉积速率(约0.1mm/yr),适合精确定年。通过230Th精确定年,比较目前使用较多的3种年代模型：线性内插、多项式拟合、StalAge模型,在年龄数据较准确、年龄数据相对较少、沉积速率存在变化的莲花洞石笋,应用最适合建立年代模式的线性内插模型建立LHD1石笋顶部30mm的生长时间为1548-2011AD, LHD3石笋的生长时间为154BC-1510AD,主要生长时段均位于近2000年,满足了近2000年来极端事件研究的要求。
(2)通过对莲花洞石笋进行XRD物相分析、氧同位素和元素沉积结构证据相互验证发现,莲花洞石笋δ180的变化在大趋势上响应夏季风强弱的变化,但是在年际、年代际尺度上反映区域降水量的变化,区域上表现为旱涝程度的变化。但是1950年以来由于石笋δ18O严重偏正,而当地大气降水量只呈现微弱减少趋势,在亚洲夏季风减弱的趋势下,可能还叠加了其他因素的作用,导致了石笋δ18O的偏正。
(3)莲花洞石笋所揭示的莲花洞周边的气候变化显示,中世纪暖期以前,当地降水量随着太阳辐射的减弱呈现减少的趋势,在中世纪暖期表现为温暖背景下相对干旱的气候特征,在小冰期为寒冷背景下干旱的特征,现代暖期在1850-1950AD表现为降水量较多的阶段,1950年以来,由于叠加了其他因素的作用,在降水量变化不大的情况下,石笋δ18O大幅度偏正,如何剥离出其他因素的作用,准确反映当地降水量变化,需要进一步研究。
(4)莲花洞石笋记录到小冰期以来4次极端干旱事件,分别为明末清初干旱事件、1680-1697AD干旱事件、1771-1827AD干旱事件、1896-1902AD干旱事件,四次干旱事件在当地的历史文献中都有记载,且表现为大范围的干旱事件,通过比较研究发现,4次极端事件的发生与2009-2010年西南大旱的发生均有着同样的大气环流背景,即太阳活动强度较弱,中东太平洋海温异常升高,表现为El Nino状态,中北太平洋温度负异常,PDO表现为正异常,西太平洋暖池海平面温度负异常,夏季风系统较弱,同时西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏南、偏西,这样的环流背景造成了中国季风区大范围极端干旱事件的发生,这可能对预测阶段事件的发生有一定指导意义。
As the global warming, the frequency of extreme events shows a higher tendency than before, many places have suffered the extreme events in the recent years in China. Such as the extreme drought happened at southwest China between2009and2010, the extreme precipitation in Beijing, July21th,2012, which threatened peoples' lives, property, and it has also received attention from Chinese leaders. So how to deal with the extreme events is an urgent problem to our Chinese. Due to the fact that the atmospheric records are short, most of them started at1957, to research the extreme events is limited, so we need to search effective record which can reflect the extreme events in history, and the author point out using stalagmite to research the extreme events in the past2000years. After the research on230Th chronology, carbon and oxygen isotopes, elements, sedimentology of stalagmites LHD1and LHD3in Lianhua Cave, Longshan county, Hunan, China, we achived the following conclusions,
(1) the stalagmites LHD1and LHD3are all aragonite, with high uranium concentration (238U>3ppm), relative high growth rate (about0.1mm/yr), and they are fit for230Th dating. After the precisely dating, the top30mm of stalagmite LHD1grows from1548AD to2011AD, the year we collected. Stalagmite LHD3grows from154BC to1510AD, the main growth time are in past2000years, so we can use these two stalagmites to research the extreme events in the past2000years.
(2) the tendency of δ18O of stalagmites in Lianhua Cave reflect the summer monsoon change in hundred to thousand years scale, in annual to multi decadal scale, the δ18O reflects the precipitation in this area, and the drought-flood level in this area. Since1950s, the δ18O of stalagmite LHD1show a dramatic heavier tendency, but the precipitation changed little, so with the Asian monsoon decrease, there may be some other factors affect the δ18O of stalagmite LHD1.
(3) the climate change revealed by stalagmite from the Lianhua Cave shows, before the medieval warm period, the precipitation in this area showed a decreased trend as the solar insolation decreased, in the medieval warm period, in the background of warm, this area was dominated by dry, and in the Little Ice Age, this area also showed a dry condition as the climate was cool,1850-1950AD the precipitation in this area is high, but the converse phase between δ18O and precipitation in this area since1950make us can't use δ18O of stalagmite to construct the precipitation in this area.
(4) the stalagmite in Lianhua Cave has recorded four extreme drought since the Little Ice age, the drought in the end of Ming dynasty,1680-1697AD drought,1771-1827AD drought and1896-1902AD drought, All these four drought are widely spreaded and recorded by the historical document. After compared with the drought happened in southwest China between2009and2010, we have found the same mechanism behind. When the extreme events happened, the solar activity was weak, the SST in middle east Pacific was positive anomaly, which expressed the condition of El Nino, the SST in basin of Pacific showed a negative anomaly, the PDO index was positive, and the SST in west Pacific warm pool also negative, and the summer monsoon system was weak, the west Pacific subtropical high was strong, which the position towarded south and west, so all the above circulation conditions make the extreme event happened in China monsoon area. So maybe we can use this to forecast the extreme event in the future.
(1)莲花洞石笋LHD1和LHD3石笋均为文石石笋,有着高的U含量(238U>3ppm),相对高的沉积速率(约0.1mm/yr),适合精确定年。通过230Th精确定年,比较目前使用较多的3种年代模型：线性内插、多项式拟合、StalAge模型,在年龄数据较准确、年龄数据相对较少、沉积速率存在变化的莲花洞石笋,应用最适合建立年代模式的线性内插模型建立LHD1石笋顶部30mm的生长时间为1548-2011AD, LHD3石笋的生长时间为154BC-1510AD,主要生长时段均位于近2000年,满足了近2000年来极端事件研究的要求。
(2)通过对莲花洞石笋进行XRD物相分析、氧同位素和元素沉积结构证据相互验证发现,莲花洞石笋δ180的变化在大趋势上响应夏季风强弱的变化,但是在年际、年代际尺度上反映区域降水量的变化,区域上表现为旱涝程度的变化。但是1950年以来由于石笋δ18O严重偏正,而当地大气降水量只呈现微弱减少趋势,在亚洲夏季风减弱的趋势下,可能还叠加了其他因素的作用,导致了石笋δ18O的偏正。
(3)莲花洞石笋所揭示的莲花洞周边的气候变化显示,中世纪暖期以前,当地降水量随着太阳辐射的减弱呈现减少的趋势,在中世纪暖期表现为温暖背景下相对干旱的气候特征,在小冰期为寒冷背景下干旱的特征,现代暖期在1850-1950AD表现为降水量较多的阶段,1950年以来,由于叠加了其他因素的作用,在降水量变化不大的情况下,石笋δ18O大幅度偏正,如何剥离出其他因素的作用,准确反映当地降水量变化,需要进一步研究。
(4)莲花洞石笋记录到小冰期以来4次极端干旱事件,分别为明末清初干旱事件、1680-1697AD干旱事件、1771-1827AD干旱事件、1896-1902AD干旱事件,四次干旱事件在当地的历史文献中都有记载,且表现为大范围的干旱事件,通过比较研究发现,4次极端事件的发生与2009-2010年西南大旱的发生均有着同样的大气环流背景,即太阳活动强度较弱,中东太平洋海温异常升高,表现为El Nino状态,中北太平洋温度负异常,PDO表现为正异常,西太平洋暖池海平面温度负异常,夏季风系统较弱,同时西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏南、偏西,这样的环流背景造成了中国季风区大范围极端干旱事件的发生,这可能对预测阶段事件的发生有一定指导意义。
As the global warming, the frequency of extreme events shows a higher tendency than before, many places have suffered the extreme events in the recent years in China. Such as the extreme drought happened at southwest China between2009and2010, the extreme precipitation in Beijing, July21th,2012, which threatened peoples' lives, property, and it has also received attention from Chinese leaders. So how to deal with the extreme events is an urgent problem to our Chinese. Due to the fact that the atmospheric records are short, most of them started at1957, to research the extreme events is limited, so we need to search effective record which can reflect the extreme events in history, and the author point out using stalagmite to research the extreme events in the past2000years. After the research on230Th chronology, carbon and oxygen isotopes, elements, sedimentology of stalagmites LHD1and LHD3in Lianhua Cave, Longshan county, Hunan, China, we achived the following conclusions,
(1) the stalagmites LHD1and LHD3are all aragonite, with high uranium concentration (238U>3ppm), relative high growth rate (about0.1mm/yr), and they are fit for230Th dating. After the precisely dating, the top30mm of stalagmite LHD1grows from1548AD to2011AD, the year we collected. Stalagmite LHD3grows from154BC to1510AD, the main growth time are in past2000years, so we can use these two stalagmites to research the extreme events in the past2000years.
(2) the tendency of δ18O of stalagmites in Lianhua Cave reflect the summer monsoon change in hundred to thousand years scale, in annual to multi decadal scale, the δ18O reflects the precipitation in this area, and the drought-flood level in this area. Since1950s, the δ18O of stalagmite LHD1show a dramatic heavier tendency, but the precipitation changed little, so with the Asian monsoon decrease, there may be some other factors affect the δ18O of stalagmite LHD1.
(3) the climate change revealed by stalagmite from the Lianhua Cave shows, before the medieval warm period, the precipitation in this area showed a decreased trend as the solar insolation decreased, in the medieval warm period, in the background of warm, this area was dominated by dry, and in the Little Ice Age, this area also showed a dry condition as the climate was cool,1850-1950AD the precipitation in this area is high, but the converse phase between δ18O and precipitation in this area since1950make us can't use δ18O of stalagmite to construct the precipitation in this area.
(4) the stalagmite in Lianhua Cave has recorded four extreme drought since the Little Ice age, the drought in the end of Ming dynasty,1680-1697AD drought,1771-1827AD drought and1896-1902AD drought, All these four drought are widely spreaded and recorded by the historical document. After compared with the drought happened in southwest China between2009and2010, we have found the same mechanism behind. When the extreme events happened, the solar activity was weak, the SST in middle east Pacific was positive anomaly, which expressed the condition of El Nino, the SST in basin of Pacific showed a negative anomaly, the PDO index was positive, and the SST in west Pacific warm pool also negative, and the summer monsoon system was weak, the west Pacific subtropical high was strong, which the position towarded south and west, so all the above circulation conditions make the extreme event happened in China monsoon area. So maybe we can use this to forecast the extreme event in the future.
引文
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