突发公共事件应急管理过程及能力评价研究
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摘要
全文以突发公共事件应急管理系统和过程分析为基础,按突发公共事件应急系统建构——事前应急管理——事中应急管理——事后应急管理——应急综合能力评价的主线来展开研究工作。全文总体上可分为五大部分:
(1)突发公共事件应急管理的理论基础
在总结前人研究成果的基础上,对应急管理的定义及相关概念进行了界定和分析;基于复杂系统理论和免疫学理论,为突发公共事件应急管理系统寻找到一个理论上的参照系——生物免疫系统;探讨了利用模糊集理论方法制定风险减缓决策方案、评估突发公共事件风险水平的可行性,归纳总结了模糊预测、决策和综合评价的基本原理和方法。
(2)应急管理“免疫”系统建构
分析了各国应急管理的组织机构设置和实务操作,并就此作了比较研究;在此基础上提出了应急管理“仿生”系统的概念,进而研究了应急管理“免疫”系统中“激活”机制的实现问题;最后借鉴用于生物免疫模拟仿真的“细胞自动机”,构建了突发公共卫生事件演化过程的模拟模型框架。
(3)事前应急管理
分析了突发公共事件风险减缓原理,在此基础上利用模糊概率构建了风险减缓备选方案评估和相关决策模型;探讨了突发公共事件风险水平评估原理,并运用模糊聚类和模糊模式识别方法建立了风险预测模型,并进行了相关实证分析。
(4)事中事后应急管理
解决了包括公安、消防、医疗等应急救援力量、社区应急救援队、应急联动中心、相关专业部门在内的应急处置力量的建设及其运作问题;提出了突发公共事件应对和处置系统;并从恢复重建目标定位、恢复重建方案决策、恢复重建规划和基本内容等方面研究了如何开展灾后恢复与灾区重建工作。
(5)应急综合能力评价系统
引介了“应急准备能力评估报告”(CAR),归纳、总结了相关的研究成果,在此基础上研究并提炼出了我国应急综合能力评价指标体系,建立了4级模糊综合评判模型,最后提出了实现应急综合能力评价系统“自学习”机制的设想。并就此进行了实证分析。
On the basis of analyzing public emergency management modes and procedures, this dissertation has conducted researches along such a technical route as construction of public emergency management system→procedures of pre-emergency management→procedures of emergency management in process→procedures of post-emergency management→assessment on emergency operation capability.The paper is composed of five parts.
(1) Theoretic foundamentals of public emergency management.The term "emergency management" and several relevant concepts are defined and analyzed; Based on the theory of complex systems and that of immunology,the author identifies a reference frame for the public emergency management system—biological immune system;And the feasibility is explored to apply Fuzzy Set theory to risk mitigation decision making and public incident risk level estimition,and the foundamentals of fuzzy prediction,decision and fuzzy comprehensive assessment are summarized.
(2) Construction of public emergency immune system.The emergency management agencies system and practices of typical countries are analyzed and compared,based on which a concept of biomimetic system for emergency management is put forth.Besides,the author studies the way to realize "activation" mechanism within the public emergency immune system.
(3) Procedures of pre-emergency management.The principle underlying public incident risk mitigation is analyzed,based on which a model for risk mitigation alternatives evaluation and decision making is developed with employment of fuzzy probability.Besides,the author explores the principle underlying public incident risk assessment,and develops a risk forcasting model applying the fuzzy clustering algorithm.Ultimately,an empirical analysis is conducted.
(4) Procedures of emergency management in process and of post-emergency management.The problems are solved concerning construction and operation of such emergency disposal forces as police,fire protection and medical staff,neighborhood search & rescue teams,the central emergency response station and the concerned professional departments;A public incident response and disposal system is suggested; And the author also studies how to carry out poat-disaster recoery and reconstruction.
(5) Emergency operation capability assessment system."Capability Assessment for Readiness" is introduced and the relevant researches are summarized,based on which an emergency operation capability assessment indicator system for China is put forth and a 4-hierachy fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is developed.And it is also suggested to realize "self-learning" mechanism of the assessment system. Ultimately,an empirical analysis is conducted.
(1)突发公共事件应急管理的理论基础
在总结前人研究成果的基础上,对应急管理的定义及相关概念进行了界定和分析;基于复杂系统理论和免疫学理论,为突发公共事件应急管理系统寻找到一个理论上的参照系——生物免疫系统;探讨了利用模糊集理论方法制定风险减缓决策方案、评估突发公共事件风险水平的可行性,归纳总结了模糊预测、决策和综合评价的基本原理和方法。
(2)应急管理“免疫”系统建构
分析了各国应急管理的组织机构设置和实务操作,并就此作了比较研究;在此基础上提出了应急管理“仿生”系统的概念,进而研究了应急管理“免疫”系统中“激活”机制的实现问题;最后借鉴用于生物免疫模拟仿真的“细胞自动机”,构建了突发公共卫生事件演化过程的模拟模型框架。
(3)事前应急管理
分析了突发公共事件风险减缓原理,在此基础上利用模糊概率构建了风险减缓备选方案评估和相关决策模型;探讨了突发公共事件风险水平评估原理,并运用模糊聚类和模糊模式识别方法建立了风险预测模型,并进行了相关实证分析。
(4)事中事后应急管理
解决了包括公安、消防、医疗等应急救援力量、社区应急救援队、应急联动中心、相关专业部门在内的应急处置力量的建设及其运作问题;提出了突发公共事件应对和处置系统;并从恢复重建目标定位、恢复重建方案决策、恢复重建规划和基本内容等方面研究了如何开展灾后恢复与灾区重建工作。
(5)应急综合能力评价系统
引介了“应急准备能力评估报告”(CAR),归纳、总结了相关的研究成果,在此基础上研究并提炼出了我国应急综合能力评价指标体系,建立了4级模糊综合评判模型,最后提出了实现应急综合能力评价系统“自学习”机制的设想。并就此进行了实证分析。
On the basis of analyzing public emergency management modes and procedures, this dissertation has conducted researches along such a technical route as construction of public emergency management system→procedures of pre-emergency management→procedures of emergency management in process→procedures of post-emergency management→assessment on emergency operation capability.The paper is composed of five parts.
(1) Theoretic foundamentals of public emergency management.The term "emergency management" and several relevant concepts are defined and analyzed; Based on the theory of complex systems and that of immunology,the author identifies a reference frame for the public emergency management system—biological immune system;And the feasibility is explored to apply Fuzzy Set theory to risk mitigation decision making and public incident risk level estimition,and the foundamentals of fuzzy prediction,decision and fuzzy comprehensive assessment are summarized.
(2) Construction of public emergency immune system.The emergency management agencies system and practices of typical countries are analyzed and compared,based on which a concept of biomimetic system for emergency management is put forth.Besides,the author studies the way to realize "activation" mechanism within the public emergency immune system.
(3) Procedures of pre-emergency management.The principle underlying public incident risk mitigation is analyzed,based on which a model for risk mitigation alternatives evaluation and decision making is developed with employment of fuzzy probability.Besides,the author explores the principle underlying public incident risk assessment,and develops a risk forcasting model applying the fuzzy clustering algorithm.Ultimately,an empirical analysis is conducted.
(4) Procedures of emergency management in process and of post-emergency management.The problems are solved concerning construction and operation of such emergency disposal forces as police,fire protection and medical staff,neighborhood search & rescue teams,the central emergency response station and the concerned professional departments;A public incident response and disposal system is suggested; And the author also studies how to carry out poat-disaster recoery and reconstruction.
(5) Emergency operation capability assessment system."Capability Assessment for Readiness" is introduced and the relevant researches are summarized,based on which an emergency operation capability assessment indicator system for China is put forth and a 4-hierachy fuzzy comprehensive assessment model is developed.And it is also suggested to realize "self-learning" mechanism of the assessment system. Ultimately,an empirical analysis is conducted.
引文
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