时空异质条件下的大气CO_2施肥效应对全球碳水循环影响的模拟研究
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摘要
大气CO2浓度的持续增加及气候变化对全球陆地生态系统相关过程产生了重要影响,已经成为陆地生态系统中碳循环和水循环研究的重要内容。在气候变化的大环境下,全球各国面临着严峻挑战。本研究旨在利用ENVISAT卫星SCIAMACHY传感器反演大气CO2柱浓度数据与集成生物圈模型IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator)研究和探讨在大气CO2浓度时空异质性及其上升带来的施肥效应条件下,历史时期全球陆地生态系统的碳收支与碳水循环耦合的动态变化及发展趋势。基于这一研究目的,论文首先分析了卫星反演的大气CO2平均柱浓度混合比(XCO2)的数据特点及其全球时空动态特征,并对比本底大气CO2浓度观测网络(GLOBALVIEW)的结果,建立了大气XCO2浓度与近地面浓度经验转换模型；制作了气象数据集、植被、土壤和地形等下垫面数据作为IBIS模型的输入,同时收集了大量碳收支与水平衡数据建立了模型验证数据集,整理近二十年大型生态控制实验结果,验证模型模拟的CO2施肥效应；最后在对模型进行部分改进及充分验证的基础上,结合SCIAMACHY反演XCO2获得的近地面大气CO2浓度时空动态,分析了异质性大气CO2施肥效应及气候变化对全球陆地生态系统碳收支与水分利用效率格局的动态变化及发展趋势,研究的主要结论如下：
1) SCIAMACHY反演卫星观测大气CO2平均柱浓度数据的季节性变化与不同植被类型之间碳源/汇能力的差异有关；SCIAMACHY反演结果与本底数据相关系数可以达到0.75以上,证明该传感器观测大气CO2浓度具有较高的近地面敏感性,但因大气本底观测网缺乏在热带地区的观测因而无法验证在该地区的敏感性；纬向的大气CO2浓度不是呈现从北半球高纬度向南半球逐渐递减的趋势,而是在赤道纬度存在一个相对持续较高的高浓度的空间格局；南半球中纬度地区存在逐渐增加的大气CO2浓度；北半球高纬度地区(30。-60。N)则因人类活动频繁,人为CO2排放较多,导致该区域大气CO2浓度的遥感观测存在极端高值较多的情况；全球大气CO2浓度上升主要与北半球的排放有关；通过GLOBALVIEW的对比,建立了XCO2浓度与近地面浓度的线性经验转换模型,其精度约为2.7±2.0ppm,并设计一种有效的针对大气CO2浓度的空间插值方法,结果显示：CO2近地面浓度的空间插值结果在非生长季(11月-2月)的模拟效果较好,而在生长季(如4月到9月)的效果不佳,总体上空间插值的结果平均相对误差为0.74%,标准误差为4.05ppm,基本满足陆面过程模型模拟的要求。
2)除去植被类型匹配、空间尺度匹配等因素的影响外,IBIS模型模拟的碳收支结果在全球大部分区域取得了较好的效果,模型模拟的NPP格局与其他研究结果较为接近,但碳源/汇总量的估算要略高于其他研究结果,这与IBIS模型目前未将土地覆盖变化因素加入模型有关；从对蒸散发的模拟结果比较来看,中纬和高纬度地区的模拟效果较好,热带地区的模拟差异较大。冬季和夏季差异较大,春秋两季的效果较好：通过对主要碳水循环变量的验证,IBIS模拟结果在空间格局及值域范围上与现有研究结果较为吻合,模型精度较高。
3) IBIS模型模拟的全球NPP及NEP与传统使用均质背景模拟的全球碳收支总量分别存在0.5%和7%的差异。其中大气CO2均质背景对亚马逊、热带非洲等热带森林主要覆盖的地区的碳收支存在约15Gg C/yr/grid的低估,而对世界其他大部分地区有约为0-3Gg C/yr/grid的轻微高估。气候变化及大气C02浓度变化是影响全球碳收支变化的重要因素。气候变化因素分别平均降低全球陆地生态系统NPP和NEP约0.4Tg C/yr和0.3TgC/yr。异质性背景CO2施肥效应对陆地生态系统的NPP和NEP分别带来平均约0.1TgC/yr和0.07Tg C/yr的正向影响,总量上异质性背景与均质背景结果差异不大,但异质性背景下全球碳收支的年际波动更为平缓。全球约有60%-70%的非冰原覆盖地表与气温因子存在显著的相关关系,而约有70-80%的陆地表面与降水因子存在显著的相关关系。在全球尺度上,大气CO2浓度(包括人源因素引起的)并不会对陆地生态系统碳收支的基本空间格局产生显著的影响。
4) IBIS模型模拟的生态系统WUE大小顺序为温带常绿林>热带森林>寒温带森林>热带稀树草原>密灌丛>草地>苔原>沙漠。WUE的高值区主要分布在美国东部、加拿大东部、以及欧洲和俄罗斯西部等温带常绿林覆盖的区域；低值区主要分布在格陵兰、北非、澳大利亚中部、以及中亚地区。全球陆地生态系统的WUE利用效率总量比传统估计水平低约0.3%,这意味着陆地生态系统的碳收支对干旱等气候变化事件的响应比以往估计的要大。CO2均质背景下,亚马逊、热带非洲、以及东南亚和中国东南的部分地区存在5mgC mm-1m-2的低估；北半球高纬度大部分地区、美国东南部、以及中国青藏高原地区存在约5mgC mm-1m-2的高估；而世界其他地区的差异在1mgC mm-1m-2以内。气候变化因素是影响陆地生态系统WUE变化最为重要的因素,影响约3.9%的全球WUE总量,而异质性大气CO2浓度及均质大气CO2浓度施肥效应分别影响0.36%和0.7%的WUE总量。全球约有27%的地表与气温因子存在显著的相关关系,而约有30%的陆地表面与降水因子存在显著的相关关系。从总量上看,CO2浓度上升带来的对碳水循环耦合的影响要小于气候变化带来的影响。从地理分布上看,大气CO2浓度(包括人源因素引起的)并不会对陆地生态系统WUE的空间分布基本格局产生显著的影响。
Climate change is one of the biggest major concerns in our time, with great impacts on the carbon and water cycle of global terrestrial ecosystems. As atmospheric CO2substantially increase, understanding the CO2dynamic and the carbon sources and sinks at global scale is a prerequisite for a climate change control strategy. This study aims to discuss the global carbon budget and its interactions with water cycle under climate change and heterogeneous atmospheric CO2enrichment effect by using Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) retrievals of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2(denoted XCO2) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). For these purposes, this paper investigated the spatial-temporal patterns of atmospheric XCO2and its relationship with ground-based background monitoring network (GLOBALVIEW), establishing a linear regression model between XCO2and near surface CO2. Several global datasets with spatial resolution of0.5degree were built up as input of the model such as climate datasets, land surface characteristic datasets, and environmental factors. Numerous field data were collected for model validation, including the results of Free Air CO2enrichment experiment (FACE) across major ecosystems. Based on the combination of the near surface CO2variations under heterogeneous scenario which were established from SCIAMACHY XCO2retrievals and the simulated results with reasonable validation, several conclusions were drawn as below:
1) The seasonal amplitudes of atmospheric XCO2retrieved from SCIAMACHY have relationship with local vegetation types which determine the carbon sinks and sources capability. The correlation coefficient between XCO2and ground CO2were larger than0.75, indicating the high near surface sensitivity of SCIAMACHY XCO2, albeit of the undetectability in Amazon regions. Latitudinal distribution of XCO2has three differences with comparison to ground CO2:(1) substantial high concentration in equatorial regions;(2) extreme high value occurred in mid-and high latitude (30°N-60°N) regions of Northern Hemisphere;(3) disturbances from anthropogenic emission, dust, ice cover, and aerosol. From the relationship between GLOBALVIEW and SCIAMACHY XCO2, the linear regression model had been established. The precision of the model was validated by independent ground observations with the accuracy of2.7±2.0ppm. The processes of spatial extrapolation have a relative mean bias of0.74%and standard error of4.05ppm.
2) As to carbon balance, the model simulated NPP and NEP well in most regions of the world. The amount of annual carbon sinks from terrestrial ecosystem in IBIS was higher than other studies'results. This is because the land cover and land use change did not considered into model simulations. The simulations of evaportranspiration captured the yearly and monthly variations well. The simulated carbon budget results showed reasonable variety and spatial patterns compared with other works.
3) Under the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric CO2scenario, the estimation of global mean annual NPP and NEP were0.5%and7%differ from traditional C sequestration assessments, respectively. The Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Africa showed higher C sequestration than traditional assessment with about15Gg C/yr/grid, and the rest of areas around the world showed slightly lower C sequestration than traditional assessment with about0-3Gg C/yr/grid. Climate change had great negative effects on global NPP and NEP with0.3Tg C/yr decline respectively, while spatial heterogeneous CO2had positive effects on NPP and NEP with0.1Tg C/yr and0.07Tg C/yr respectively. The spatial variation of NPP is associated with temperature in60to70%of the area of nonpolar terrestrial ecosystems, while70to80%of terrestrial land is colimited by precipitation. The spatial variations of atmospheric CO? have limited effects on spatial patterns of NPP, indicating that anthropogenic emission did not lead to significant effets on carbon budget at global scale.
4) The Water Use Efficiency (WUE) showed a decreasing order for terrestrial vegetation types:Warm Temperate Forest>Temperate Forest>Tropical Forest> Boreal Forest>Savanna>Dense Shrubland>Grassland>Tundra>Desert.The high WUE distributed in southeastern US,eastern Canada, and Eurpoe and Russia where boreal forest mainly covered.In contrast,the low WUE distributed in Greenland, North Africa, and Central Asia. The estimation of global total WUE was0.3%lower than traditional C sequestration assessments, indicating larger response of global carbon budget to extreme event such as drought. The Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Africa showed higher WUE (～5mgC mm-1m-2yr-1) than traditional assessment, and the rest of areas around the world showed slightly lower C sequestration than traditional assessment within about1mgC mm-1m-2yr-1. Climate change, spatial heterogeneous CO2and uniform CO2scenarios had positive effects on global total WUE with3.9%,0.36%, and0.7%, respectively. The spatial pattern of WUE is associated with temperature and precipitation in27%and30%areas of terrain respectively. The spatial variations of atmospheric CO2did not have considerable effects on spatial patterns of WUE.
1) SCIAMACHY反演卫星观测大气CO2平均柱浓度数据的季节性变化与不同植被类型之间碳源/汇能力的差异有关；SCIAMACHY反演结果与本底数据相关系数可以达到0.75以上,证明该传感器观测大气CO2浓度具有较高的近地面敏感性,但因大气本底观测网缺乏在热带地区的观测因而无法验证在该地区的敏感性；纬向的大气CO2浓度不是呈现从北半球高纬度向南半球逐渐递减的趋势,而是在赤道纬度存在一个相对持续较高的高浓度的空间格局；南半球中纬度地区存在逐渐增加的大气CO2浓度；北半球高纬度地区(30。-60。N)则因人类活动频繁,人为CO2排放较多,导致该区域大气CO2浓度的遥感观测存在极端高值较多的情况；全球大气CO2浓度上升主要与北半球的排放有关；通过GLOBALVIEW的对比,建立了XCO2浓度与近地面浓度的线性经验转换模型,其精度约为2.7±2.0ppm,并设计一种有效的针对大气CO2浓度的空间插值方法,结果显示：CO2近地面浓度的空间插值结果在非生长季(11月-2月)的模拟效果较好,而在生长季(如4月到9月)的效果不佳,总体上空间插值的结果平均相对误差为0.74%,标准误差为4.05ppm,基本满足陆面过程模型模拟的要求。
2)除去植被类型匹配、空间尺度匹配等因素的影响外,IBIS模型模拟的碳收支结果在全球大部分区域取得了较好的效果,模型模拟的NPP格局与其他研究结果较为接近,但碳源/汇总量的估算要略高于其他研究结果,这与IBIS模型目前未将土地覆盖变化因素加入模型有关；从对蒸散发的模拟结果比较来看,中纬和高纬度地区的模拟效果较好,热带地区的模拟差异较大。冬季和夏季差异较大,春秋两季的效果较好：通过对主要碳水循环变量的验证,IBIS模拟结果在空间格局及值域范围上与现有研究结果较为吻合,模型精度较高。
3) IBIS模型模拟的全球NPP及NEP与传统使用均质背景模拟的全球碳收支总量分别存在0.5%和7%的差异。其中大气CO2均质背景对亚马逊、热带非洲等热带森林主要覆盖的地区的碳收支存在约15Gg C/yr/grid的低估,而对世界其他大部分地区有约为0-3Gg C/yr/grid的轻微高估。气候变化及大气C02浓度变化是影响全球碳收支变化的重要因素。气候变化因素分别平均降低全球陆地生态系统NPP和NEP约0.4Tg C/yr和0.3TgC/yr。异质性背景CO2施肥效应对陆地生态系统的NPP和NEP分别带来平均约0.1TgC/yr和0.07Tg C/yr的正向影响,总量上异质性背景与均质背景结果差异不大,但异质性背景下全球碳收支的年际波动更为平缓。全球约有60%-70%的非冰原覆盖地表与气温因子存在显著的相关关系,而约有70-80%的陆地表面与降水因子存在显著的相关关系。在全球尺度上,大气CO2浓度(包括人源因素引起的)并不会对陆地生态系统碳收支的基本空间格局产生显著的影响。
4) IBIS模型模拟的生态系统WUE大小顺序为温带常绿林>热带森林>寒温带森林>热带稀树草原>密灌丛>草地>苔原>沙漠。WUE的高值区主要分布在美国东部、加拿大东部、以及欧洲和俄罗斯西部等温带常绿林覆盖的区域；低值区主要分布在格陵兰、北非、澳大利亚中部、以及中亚地区。全球陆地生态系统的WUE利用效率总量比传统估计水平低约0.3%,这意味着陆地生态系统的碳收支对干旱等气候变化事件的响应比以往估计的要大。CO2均质背景下,亚马逊、热带非洲、以及东南亚和中国东南的部分地区存在5mgC mm-1m-2的低估；北半球高纬度大部分地区、美国东南部、以及中国青藏高原地区存在约5mgC mm-1m-2的高估；而世界其他地区的差异在1mgC mm-1m-2以内。气候变化因素是影响陆地生态系统WUE变化最为重要的因素,影响约3.9%的全球WUE总量,而异质性大气CO2浓度及均质大气CO2浓度施肥效应分别影响0.36%和0.7%的WUE总量。全球约有27%的地表与气温因子存在显著的相关关系,而约有30%的陆地表面与降水因子存在显著的相关关系。从总量上看,CO2浓度上升带来的对碳水循环耦合的影响要小于气候变化带来的影响。从地理分布上看,大气CO2浓度(包括人源因素引起的)并不会对陆地生态系统WUE的空间分布基本格局产生显著的影响。
Climate change is one of the biggest major concerns in our time, with great impacts on the carbon and water cycle of global terrestrial ecosystems. As atmospheric CO2substantially increase, understanding the CO2dynamic and the carbon sources and sinks at global scale is a prerequisite for a climate change control strategy. This study aims to discuss the global carbon budget and its interactions with water cycle under climate change and heterogeneous atmospheric CO2enrichment effect by using Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) retrievals of column-averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2(denoted XCO2) and Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). For these purposes, this paper investigated the spatial-temporal patterns of atmospheric XCO2and its relationship with ground-based background monitoring network (GLOBALVIEW), establishing a linear regression model between XCO2and near surface CO2. Several global datasets with spatial resolution of0.5degree were built up as input of the model such as climate datasets, land surface characteristic datasets, and environmental factors. Numerous field data were collected for model validation, including the results of Free Air CO2enrichment experiment (FACE) across major ecosystems. Based on the combination of the near surface CO2variations under heterogeneous scenario which were established from SCIAMACHY XCO2retrievals and the simulated results with reasonable validation, several conclusions were drawn as below:
1) The seasonal amplitudes of atmospheric XCO2retrieved from SCIAMACHY have relationship with local vegetation types which determine the carbon sinks and sources capability. The correlation coefficient between XCO2and ground CO2were larger than0.75, indicating the high near surface sensitivity of SCIAMACHY XCO2, albeit of the undetectability in Amazon regions. Latitudinal distribution of XCO2has three differences with comparison to ground CO2:(1) substantial high concentration in equatorial regions;(2) extreme high value occurred in mid-and high latitude (30°N-60°N) regions of Northern Hemisphere;(3) disturbances from anthropogenic emission, dust, ice cover, and aerosol. From the relationship between GLOBALVIEW and SCIAMACHY XCO2, the linear regression model had been established. The precision of the model was validated by independent ground observations with the accuracy of2.7±2.0ppm. The processes of spatial extrapolation have a relative mean bias of0.74%and standard error of4.05ppm.
2) As to carbon balance, the model simulated NPP and NEP well in most regions of the world. The amount of annual carbon sinks from terrestrial ecosystem in IBIS was higher than other studies'results. This is because the land cover and land use change did not considered into model simulations. The simulations of evaportranspiration captured the yearly and monthly variations well. The simulated carbon budget results showed reasonable variety and spatial patterns compared with other works.
3) Under the spatial heterogeneity of atmospheric CO2scenario, the estimation of global mean annual NPP and NEP were0.5%and7%differ from traditional C sequestration assessments, respectively. The Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Africa showed higher C sequestration than traditional assessment with about15Gg C/yr/grid, and the rest of areas around the world showed slightly lower C sequestration than traditional assessment with about0-3Gg C/yr/grid. Climate change had great negative effects on global NPP and NEP with0.3Tg C/yr decline respectively, while spatial heterogeneous CO2had positive effects on NPP and NEP with0.1Tg C/yr and0.07Tg C/yr respectively. The spatial variation of NPP is associated with temperature in60to70%of the area of nonpolar terrestrial ecosystems, while70to80%of terrestrial land is colimited by precipitation. The spatial variations of atmospheric CO? have limited effects on spatial patterns of NPP, indicating that anthropogenic emission did not lead to significant effets on carbon budget at global scale.
4) The Water Use Efficiency (WUE) showed a decreasing order for terrestrial vegetation types:Warm Temperate Forest>Temperate Forest>Tropical Forest> Boreal Forest>Savanna>Dense Shrubland>Grassland>Tundra>Desert.The high WUE distributed in southeastern US,eastern Canada, and Eurpoe and Russia where boreal forest mainly covered.In contrast,the low WUE distributed in Greenland, North Africa, and Central Asia. The estimation of global total WUE was0.3%lower than traditional C sequestration assessments, indicating larger response of global carbon budget to extreme event such as drought. The Amazon, Southeast Asia, and Tropical Africa showed higher WUE (～5mgC mm-1m-2yr-1) than traditional assessment, and the rest of areas around the world showed slightly lower C sequestration than traditional assessment within about1mgC mm-1m-2yr-1. Climate change, spatial heterogeneous CO2and uniform CO2scenarios had positive effects on global total WUE with3.9%,0.36%, and0.7%, respectively. The spatial pattern of WUE is associated with temperature and precipitation in27%and30%areas of terrain respectively. The spatial variations of atmospheric CO2did not have considerable effects on spatial patterns of WUE.
引文
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