城市住宅价格的动力因素及其实证研究
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摘要
自1998年我国取消福利分房以来，城市住宅投资规模迅速扩大，住宅销售面积逐年增加，与此同时城市住宅价格也迅速增长，有的城市甚至以每年20％的速度上涨，引起了政府、企业、专家学者和媒体舆论的高度重视。但遗憾的是，目前我国住宅市场和住宅价格的研究还只是停留在宽泛性的定性分析上，缺乏定量分析与实证研究，也缺乏可靠的分析工具和模型模拟，因而也无法知道城市住宅价格对哪些因素是敏感的，这些因素的影响力是多少。理论研究的不足造成了政府政策和企业决策缺乏有效的科学依据和技术支撑，购房者投资缺乏有效的指导，这无疑影响了我国住宅产业健康、持续的发展。因此，在我国的住宅市场研究中，十分需要全面分析住宅供需关系，构建可以进行政策分析和投资分析的城市住宅价格模型。在此背景下，论文以城市住宅价格为研究对象，试图探讨哪些主要动力因素对住宅价格产生影响，并通过实证的方法进一步研究其内在运行机制，希望在发展我国住宅价格模型的同时，为政府调控、企业经营、银行信贷管理和购房者投资提供分析方法和工具。
论文首先研究了国外关于住宅价格实证研究的文献，对住宅价格的主要动力因素从理论和实证角度进行了论证，还对住宅价格模型的实证结果进行了分析，归纳出住宅价格的6个主要动力因素是：收入、利率、信用可靠性、税收结构、住宅供给和人口结构。文献研究还发现，住宅市场的融资水平高低与住宅价格变化存在着显著的正相关，住宅价格在高、低融资条件下对家庭收入的变化反应也是不同的。
在文献研究的基础上，论文从需求、供给及其他社会经济因素等方面对中国城市住宅价格的主要动力因素进行了实证研究，主要内容包括以下5个方面：
(1)城市住宅价格水平的动力因素分析。以市区非农业人口、国内生产总值、人均可支配收入、商品住宅销售面积、人均住房使用面积、恩格尔系数为解释变量，对城市住宅价格进行了建模和实证研究。我们分别采用1998—2000年全国30个大、中城市和浙江省8个主要城市的相关数据进行建模，实证结果显示，市区非农业人口和人均可支配收入对城市住宅价格产生显著的影响，这和国外的研究结果基本一致。利用回归模型对2001年全国8个城市和浙江省4个城市的理论住宅价格进行了测算，并与实际住宅价格作了比较分析。
(2)引入住宅抵押贷款因素后的融资效应对家庭住宅需求价格的影响。我们首先设计了跨期预算约束条件下的家庭住宅需求价格模型，然后采用2001年度杭州市区300户城镇居民调查数据资料进行实证研究。实证研究发现引入住宅抵押贷款因素后，贷款成数、贷款利率、贷款期限对家庭住宅需求价格产生显著影响，降低贷款利率、延长贷款期限均可以提高居民的支付能力，扩大住宅市场的有效需求，从而提升家庭住宅需求价格。实证研究还发现在模型中加入收入增
浙江大学博士学位论文
长率这个变量后，模型更具实际意义，家庭住宅需求价格对收入增长率这一变量
非常敏感。基于未来收入的增长预期，我国住宅需求价格的上涨空间是广阔的。
此外，实证研究还发现引入住宅抵押贷款因素后，目前杭州中、高收入家庭已经
具备住宅商品化的条件，完全可以从市场上购买与自己支付能力相适应的住宅，
而低收入家庭的支付能力与相适应的住宅价格还有一定的差距，这一结果也与国
际惯例相符合。利用我们2003年对杭州市1200位市民的问卷调查资料，进一步
分析了杭州住宅市场持续繁荣的经济原因。
(3)住宅建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响。论文利用深圳1984一2000年和
上海1996一2000年的统计数据，研究了建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响。从实
证分析来看，建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响要分长期和短期分别考虑。在短期
内，影响住宅建安综合费用的因素基本是固定的，如人工工资、建筑材料价格等，
同类住宅的建安综合费用水平基本稳定，短期内建安综合费用对住宅价格影响不
显著。从长期来看，随着经济发展和居民生活水平的提高，影响住宅建安综合费
用因素的价格也不断上涨，如人工工资、建筑材料价格都在不断上涨，还有住宅
建设标准也不断提高。因此，就长期而言，住宅建安综合费用仍是住宅价格的重
要动力因素之一。
(4)土地成本与住宅价格的关系。在理论上，土地成本对一个城市的住宅
价格水平的作用不明显，土地价格可能是住宅供求关系派生出来的。论文利用杭
州市区2002年在售的96个楼盘样本数据进行实证分析，结果显示，土地成本对
住宅价格的解释力达到615%，土地成本的弹性系数估计值为0.328。也就是说，
土地成本变动1%，住宅价格就会有0.328%的变动。因此，就开发项目个案而言，
土地成本是住宅价格的主要动力因素。
(5)住宅租金与住宅价格的关系。从理论分析来看，住宅租金应和住宅价
格具有良好的一致性。’论文利用杭州主城区2002年6月一12月期间住宅市场住
宅租金与住宅价格的615对交易样本数据进行了实证研究，结果表明，虽然杭州
的住宅价格和住宅租金的相关性为0.652，说明住宅价格和住宅租金具有良好的
相关性，但是从回归方程分析来看，贷二0.425说明住宅
China's house market has experienced great changes since its cancellation of the welfare housing policy in 1998, with an overall increase in urban house investment, house sales, as well as house price of which, in some cities, the accelerating speed amounts to 20 per cent annually. The changes have received enough attention from the government, enterprises, professionals and specialists, and mass media. Unfortunately, however, recent studies on the country's house market and house price have confined themselves to general qualitative analysis. The lack of quantitative analysis and empirical study, and the resulting absence of reliable analyzing tools and modeling simulation have made it hardly possible for people to know clearly what factors house price is sensitive to and how these factors influence house price. Even worse, as a result of such theoretical deficiency, decision making becomes rather difficult in departments concerned and real estate developing companies due to unavailability of effective scie
ntific grounds and technical support. At the same time, effective instructions are not available to investors in the market. All these have brought negative effects on the healthy and sustainable development of the nation's house industry, and therefore have pressed an urgent need for the establishment of an urban house price model which helps to analyze house investment and house policies based on a comprehensive study of the relations between house demand and house supply. The dissertation presented is just one of the attempts to establish such a model as well as to solve the above problems. Targeting urban house price, it tries to find out the main influential and dynamical factors on house price. It also adopts empirical approaches so as to explore the inherent mechanism of house price. By doing this, an effective house price model may be developed and the departments concerned, the real estate companies, banks, and consumers may find it helpful as one of the analyzing approaches and tools in their regul
ation and control, business management, management of credit, and investment decisions respectively.
To achieve its goal, two major efforts have been made in the dissertation: a careful study of related overseas documents and an empirical analysis of the house price. The first one involves the following steps: first, inference of the main dynamical factors which influence house price from both the theoretical and empirical angles; second, analysis of the results of the empirical study on the house price model; and third, presentation of the six major dynamical factors, namely, income, interest rate, credit reliability, tax structure, house supply and population structure. Other findings include: a remarkable positive relation between financing level and house price changes in the house market, and also, house price's different reactions towards family income changes under different financing conditions.
Based on the above theoretical study, the second effort, that is, an empirical analysis of the dynamical factors influencing China's urban house price, has been made, taking into consideration the impacts of house demand, house supply, and other social and economic factors. It includes the following five aspects:
(1) Analysis of the dynamical factors affecting urban house price level. Attempts have been made to establish a house price model and to study empirically the urban house price with such illustrative variables as urban non-agricultural population, GNP, per capita disposable income, floorage of commercial house sold, per capita house coverage, and Engle coefficient. Statistics used are those of 30 big and medium-sized cities of the country from 1998 to 2000 and of 8 cities of Zhejiang province in the same period, and models are established accordingly. Results of the empirical study indicate that two factors, i.e., urban non-agricultural population and per capita disposable income, exercise significant influence over urban house price, which is identical to the overseas analytical fin
论文首先研究了国外关于住宅价格实证研究的文献，对住宅价格的主要动力因素从理论和实证角度进行了论证，还对住宅价格模型的实证结果进行了分析，归纳出住宅价格的6个主要动力因素是：收入、利率、信用可靠性、税收结构、住宅供给和人口结构。文献研究还发现，住宅市场的融资水平高低与住宅价格变化存在着显著的正相关，住宅价格在高、低融资条件下对家庭收入的变化反应也是不同的。
在文献研究的基础上，论文从需求、供给及其他社会经济因素等方面对中国城市住宅价格的主要动力因素进行了实证研究，主要内容包括以下5个方面：
(1)城市住宅价格水平的动力因素分析。以市区非农业人口、国内生产总值、人均可支配收入、商品住宅销售面积、人均住房使用面积、恩格尔系数为解释变量，对城市住宅价格进行了建模和实证研究。我们分别采用1998—2000年全国30个大、中城市和浙江省8个主要城市的相关数据进行建模，实证结果显示，市区非农业人口和人均可支配收入对城市住宅价格产生显著的影响，这和国外的研究结果基本一致。利用回归模型对2001年全国8个城市和浙江省4个城市的理论住宅价格进行了测算，并与实际住宅价格作了比较分析。
(2)引入住宅抵押贷款因素后的融资效应对家庭住宅需求价格的影响。我们首先设计了跨期预算约束条件下的家庭住宅需求价格模型，然后采用2001年度杭州市区300户城镇居民调查数据资料进行实证研究。实证研究发现引入住宅抵押贷款因素后，贷款成数、贷款利率、贷款期限对家庭住宅需求价格产生显著影响，降低贷款利率、延长贷款期限均可以提高居民的支付能力，扩大住宅市场的有效需求，从而提升家庭住宅需求价格。实证研究还发现在模型中加入收入增
浙江大学博士学位论文
长率这个变量后，模型更具实际意义，家庭住宅需求价格对收入增长率这一变量
非常敏感。基于未来收入的增长预期，我国住宅需求价格的上涨空间是广阔的。
此外，实证研究还发现引入住宅抵押贷款因素后，目前杭州中、高收入家庭已经
具备住宅商品化的条件，完全可以从市场上购买与自己支付能力相适应的住宅，
而低收入家庭的支付能力与相适应的住宅价格还有一定的差距，这一结果也与国
际惯例相符合。利用我们2003年对杭州市1200位市民的问卷调查资料，进一步
分析了杭州住宅市场持续繁荣的经济原因。
(3)住宅建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响。论文利用深圳1984一2000年和
上海1996一2000年的统计数据，研究了建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响。从实
证分析来看，建安综合费用对住宅价格的影响要分长期和短期分别考虑。在短期
内，影响住宅建安综合费用的因素基本是固定的，如人工工资、建筑材料价格等，
同类住宅的建安综合费用水平基本稳定，短期内建安综合费用对住宅价格影响不
显著。从长期来看，随着经济发展和居民生活水平的提高，影响住宅建安综合费
用因素的价格也不断上涨，如人工工资、建筑材料价格都在不断上涨，还有住宅
建设标准也不断提高。因此，就长期而言，住宅建安综合费用仍是住宅价格的重
要动力因素之一。
(4)土地成本与住宅价格的关系。在理论上，土地成本对一个城市的住宅
价格水平的作用不明显，土地价格可能是住宅供求关系派生出来的。论文利用杭
州市区2002年在售的96个楼盘样本数据进行实证分析，结果显示，土地成本对
住宅价格的解释力达到615%，土地成本的弹性系数估计值为0.328。也就是说，
土地成本变动1%，住宅价格就会有0.328%的变动。因此，就开发项目个案而言，
土地成本是住宅价格的主要动力因素。
(5)住宅租金与住宅价格的关系。从理论分析来看，住宅租金应和住宅价
格具有良好的一致性。’论文利用杭州主城区2002年6月一12月期间住宅市场住
宅租金与住宅价格的615对交易样本数据进行了实证研究，结果表明，虽然杭州
的住宅价格和住宅租金的相关性为0.652，说明住宅价格和住宅租金具有良好的
相关性，但是从回归方程分析来看，贷二0.425说明住宅
China's house market has experienced great changes since its cancellation of the welfare housing policy in 1998, with an overall increase in urban house investment, house sales, as well as house price of which, in some cities, the accelerating speed amounts to 20 per cent annually. The changes have received enough attention from the government, enterprises, professionals and specialists, and mass media. Unfortunately, however, recent studies on the country's house market and house price have confined themselves to general qualitative analysis. The lack of quantitative analysis and empirical study, and the resulting absence of reliable analyzing tools and modeling simulation have made it hardly possible for people to know clearly what factors house price is sensitive to and how these factors influence house price. Even worse, as a result of such theoretical deficiency, decision making becomes rather difficult in departments concerned and real estate developing companies due to unavailability of effective scie
ntific grounds and technical support. At the same time, effective instructions are not available to investors in the market. All these have brought negative effects on the healthy and sustainable development of the nation's house industry, and therefore have pressed an urgent need for the establishment of an urban house price model which helps to analyze house investment and house policies based on a comprehensive study of the relations between house demand and house supply. The dissertation presented is just one of the attempts to establish such a model as well as to solve the above problems. Targeting urban house price, it tries to find out the main influential and dynamical factors on house price. It also adopts empirical approaches so as to explore the inherent mechanism of house price. By doing this, an effective house price model may be developed and the departments concerned, the real estate companies, banks, and consumers may find it helpful as one of the analyzing approaches and tools in their regul
ation and control, business management, management of credit, and investment decisions respectively.
To achieve its goal, two major efforts have been made in the dissertation: a careful study of related overseas documents and an empirical analysis of the house price. The first one involves the following steps: first, inference of the main dynamical factors which influence house price from both the theoretical and empirical angles; second, analysis of the results of the empirical study on the house price model; and third, presentation of the six major dynamical factors, namely, income, interest rate, credit reliability, tax structure, house supply and population structure. Other findings include: a remarkable positive relation between financing level and house price changes in the house market, and also, house price's different reactions towards family income changes under different financing conditions.
Based on the above theoretical study, the second effort, that is, an empirical analysis of the dynamical factors influencing China's urban house price, has been made, taking into consideration the impacts of house demand, house supply, and other social and economic factors. It includes the following five aspects:
(1) Analysis of the dynamical factors affecting urban house price level. Attempts have been made to establish a house price model and to study empirically the urban house price with such illustrative variables as urban non-agricultural population, GNP, per capita disposable income, floorage of commercial house sold, per capita house coverage, and Engle coefficient. Statistics used are those of 30 big and medium-sized cities of the country from 1998 to 2000 and of 8 cities of Zhejiang province in the same period, and models are established accordingly. Results of the empirical study indicate that two factors, i.e., urban non-agricultural population and per capita disposable income, exercise significant influence over urban house price, which is identical to the overseas analytical fin
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