中国经济增长与收入分配差异的空间统计分析
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摘要
本文旨在从地理空间和多维要素出发，建立经济增长与收入分配差异的理论框架，并以之为基础，分析中国经济增长与收入分配差异的关系、增长差异的空间格局、趋同(Convergence)趋势及其形成原因。文中提出了地理空间效应和多维要素协同作用两个命题，讨论了地理空间效应与经济增长的关系，建立了纳入地理空间效应的区域增长和收入分配差异的空间统计模型框架。利用1978-2002年的省域、城乡及2000年的县域数据，应用多种数理统计方法模型，对中国经济增长和收入分配差异进行了实证空间统计分析。描述了中国区域经济增长和收入分配差异的现状，刻画了增长趋同(趋异，Divergence)的格局和趋势，揭示了省域、三大地带、城乡经济增长与收入分配差异的长期均衡和因果关系，详细探讨了经济增长差异及增长趋同机制的形成原因。
第一章提出了本论文研究的必要性和意义，评述了国内外相关研究，指出了目前研究中存在的问题；然后在此基础上，提出了本研究的选题依据和思路方法，介绍了论文的主要内容和创新之处。国内外研究中比较普遍地存在忽视地理空间效应和多维要素对经济增长协同作用的问题，缺乏对空间维度的考察。本研究的逻辑起点就是经济增长的地理空间效应和多维要素协同作用。在理论上，引进空间联系和异质性假设，在地理空间效应的基础上展开理论框架的构建；在方法上，除了采用经典的数理统计方法外，还引进空间统计和空间计量经济学以及动态计量经济学的方法；在分析要素方面，将多维要素引入研究框架，强调多要素的综合作用；在数据方面，本文采用时间序列数据(Time Series Data)、横截面数据(Cross-section Data)及合成数据(Panel Data)；在研究的空间尺度方面，笔者尝试深入到县域层次进行探索性分析。
第二章提出了中国经济增长与收入分配差异研究的理论基础，然后从基本前提、理论框架、理论模型思路及方法模型和变量数据等方面阐述了本论文的研究框架。新古典经济增长理论、新经济增长理论和新经济地理学理论是经济增长绩效与收入分配差异研究的基本理论基础。基于地理信息系统平台的空间分析支持功能，沿着这三个理论及空间计量经济学的分析思路和方法，构建基于新古典增长理论的截面空间分析理论框架及基于新增长理论的空间过滤合成数据(Spatial Filtering Panel Data)分析理论框架，对中国经济增长和收入分配差异研究具有重要意义。
第三章采用多种数理统计方法，在地理信息系统平台支持下，对省域、地带、县域、城
华东师范大学博士学位论文
中国经济增长与收入分配差异的空间统计分析
乡经济增长和收入分配差异的格局进行多尺度统计描述和图形分析，刻画了中国区域经济增
长与收入分配差异的发展现状、时空格局及演变趋势，以揭示改革开放以来中国经济增长和
地区收入分配差异的典型事实，对中国区域增长和收入分配差异有一个概念性的认识和把
握。改革开放以后，尤其是进入，990年代以来，地区间的初期经济发展水平和经济增长率
都沿东中西三大地带的空间推移逐渐下降，全国总体经济增长差异呈现为先趋同后趋异的非
线性过程;省域经济增长差距重新扩大，东部地区和中西部地区之间的绝对和相对差距都在
拉大;城乡收入差异呈现出持续趋异态势，是导致中国目前收入分配不平等最主要的来源。
第四章采用协整关系和格兰杰因果关系模型，实证分析了经济增长和收入分配差异之间
的均衡关系和因果关系。中国经济要保持长期增长，全国总体、东中西部地区和城乡差距将
继续保持下去:从格兰杰意义上讲，经济增长导致了全国总体收入差异的扩大，而经济增长
与三大地带之间呈现出复杂的相互交错的单项因果关系，经济增长分别是城镇和农村收入分
配差异的原因，城镇收入差异是农村收入差异的稳健性成因。
第五章在巴罗与萨拉一伊一马丁新古典增长模型的基础上，提出了区域经济增长刀趋同的
空间统计分析模型框架，采用，953一，978、，978一2002年的截面数据，分析了地理溢出效应
和刀趋同效应及其成因。中国省域经济经过改革开放25年的发展，在地理上的集聚性明显
增强的同时，空间联系也在变得不断密切，考虑空间自相关的空间误差趋同刀模型是目前
研究中国省域经济增长截面趋同比较合适的模型，趋同速度约为2%，这与目前跨国截面研
究的结果基本一致。地理因素和空间溢出效应一起对经济增长和收入差距产生重要影响。劳
动力、人力资本、对外开放(国际贸易、FDI)、企业制度改革、公路网络密度等对各省的
经济增长从不同的角度对经济增长率产生正面作用，而人力资本投资、国内贸易(地区分割)、
人口密度、邮电通讯的作用为负;工业化进程、政府消费的影响不显著，工业化和政府行为
在经济增长过程中的作用值得关注。
第六章提出了中国省域和城乡经济增长差异研究的理论模型，构建了一个针对合成数据
的空间过滤动态合成数据模型，实证研究结果表明:空间过滤是去除经济增长变量间空间自
相关性的有效方法，省域经济增长表现出了条件趋同的趋势;省域经济增长差异和条件趋同
机制的形成原因比较复杂，起正面作用的因素主要有总储蓄率、人力资本积累?
This dissertation reconsiders the question of Chinese economic convergence club from a spatial econometric perspective and aims at two central objectives. The first is to delineates the trend of Chinese regional disparities and its spatial dynamics over the 1978-2002 period, based on recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as well as the decomposition techniques of Theil and Gini indices. The second objective is to apply a set of spatial econometric models to examine the growth convergence over the sample period and to explain the performance and mechanism of recent Chinese economic growth from a new growth theory and new economic geography perspective.
The dissertation is organized as follows: Chapter 1 indicates the necessity and significance of the research, provides a concise literature review, lists the problematic issues in the existing literature.
Chapter 2 is for development of a theoretical framework. The theorizing work begins with the so-called Solow-Swan core model of growth from neoclassical theory, and then it moves beyond the neoclassical model to incorporate the novel ideas of new growth theory and new economic geography. In order to take account of spatial effects as prescribed in the First Law of Geography by Tobler, a GfS-SA platform is devised and a panel database is constructed to facilitate a time-space empirical analysis of Chinese economic growth and convergence patterns.
Chapter 3 is devoted to a Chinese regional convergence study from a a-convergence perspective, followed with an exploratory spatial data analysis based on the recent developed methods in the area.
Chapter 4 tries to determine the cointegration and causal-effect relationship of economic growth and income disparities using a cointegration model and a Granger causal-effect model, with the results being as expected.
In Chapter 5, based on a B -convergence model of Barro and
Salad-I-Martin neoclassical theory of growth, the convergence rate of Chinese regional economic growth over the 1978-2002 period is estimated first by ordinary least squares and, then, due to the presence of spatial dependence in the population residual terms, a spatial error model in the line of Anselin's spatial econometrics is specified and re-estimated with maximum likelihood method.
Chapter 6 examines the provincial convergence issue and its cause, urban-rural issue and its widening economic gap. Following a Getis-Griffith's approach, a spatial autoregressive filtering technique is adopted and the spatial effects embedded in the panel dataset are filtered out according to a local Gi* measure of each observation. As consequences, a best linear unbiased estimator of ordinary least squares is used in estimating on the panel data. Results show that there is an evidence of conditional convergence in China's provincial economic growth. In other words, regional per capita GDP growth rate is negatively correlated with its initial year's per capita GDP level. Another finding is that the estimated convergence rate of panel data is higher than that estimated using cross-sectional data, implying the possible bias with the cross-sectional data estimation.
Chapter 7 is an examination on the sources of Chinese economic growth at a more disaggregated county level from a theoretical perspective of endogenous growth and increasing returns. Empirical estimates show that investment in a county's human capital, urbanization, industrialization and information not only contribute that county's economic growth performance, but also diffuses the momentum of growth to nearby county in the form of economically positive spillovers.
Chapter 8 is conclusion, the research results are summarized, conclusions are made, and suggestions for future study are proposed.
第一章提出了本论文研究的必要性和意义，评述了国内外相关研究，指出了目前研究中存在的问题；然后在此基础上，提出了本研究的选题依据和思路方法，介绍了论文的主要内容和创新之处。国内外研究中比较普遍地存在忽视地理空间效应和多维要素对经济增长协同作用的问题，缺乏对空间维度的考察。本研究的逻辑起点就是经济增长的地理空间效应和多维要素协同作用。在理论上，引进空间联系和异质性假设，在地理空间效应的基础上展开理论框架的构建；在方法上，除了采用经典的数理统计方法外，还引进空间统计和空间计量经济学以及动态计量经济学的方法；在分析要素方面，将多维要素引入研究框架，强调多要素的综合作用；在数据方面，本文采用时间序列数据(Time Series Data)、横截面数据(Cross-section Data)及合成数据(Panel Data)；在研究的空间尺度方面，笔者尝试深入到县域层次进行探索性分析。
第二章提出了中国经济增长与收入分配差异研究的理论基础，然后从基本前提、理论框架、理论模型思路及方法模型和变量数据等方面阐述了本论文的研究框架。新古典经济增长理论、新经济增长理论和新经济地理学理论是经济增长绩效与收入分配差异研究的基本理论基础。基于地理信息系统平台的空间分析支持功能，沿着这三个理论及空间计量经济学的分析思路和方法，构建基于新古典增长理论的截面空间分析理论框架及基于新增长理论的空间过滤合成数据(Spatial Filtering Panel Data)分析理论框架，对中国经济增长和收入分配差异研究具有重要意义。
第三章采用多种数理统计方法，在地理信息系统平台支持下，对省域、地带、县域、城
华东师范大学博士学位论文
中国经济增长与收入分配差异的空间统计分析
乡经济增长和收入分配差异的格局进行多尺度统计描述和图形分析，刻画了中国区域经济增
长与收入分配差异的发展现状、时空格局及演变趋势，以揭示改革开放以来中国经济增长和
地区收入分配差异的典型事实，对中国区域增长和收入分配差异有一个概念性的认识和把
握。改革开放以后，尤其是进入，990年代以来，地区间的初期经济发展水平和经济增长率
都沿东中西三大地带的空间推移逐渐下降，全国总体经济增长差异呈现为先趋同后趋异的非
线性过程;省域经济增长差距重新扩大，东部地区和中西部地区之间的绝对和相对差距都在
拉大;城乡收入差异呈现出持续趋异态势，是导致中国目前收入分配不平等最主要的来源。
第四章采用协整关系和格兰杰因果关系模型，实证分析了经济增长和收入分配差异之间
的均衡关系和因果关系。中国经济要保持长期增长，全国总体、东中西部地区和城乡差距将
继续保持下去:从格兰杰意义上讲，经济增长导致了全国总体收入差异的扩大，而经济增长
与三大地带之间呈现出复杂的相互交错的单项因果关系，经济增长分别是城镇和农村收入分
配差异的原因，城镇收入差异是农村收入差异的稳健性成因。
第五章在巴罗与萨拉一伊一马丁新古典增长模型的基础上，提出了区域经济增长刀趋同的
空间统计分析模型框架，采用，953一，978、，978一2002年的截面数据，分析了地理溢出效应
和刀趋同效应及其成因。中国省域经济经过改革开放25年的发展，在地理上的集聚性明显
增强的同时，空间联系也在变得不断密切，考虑空间自相关的空间误差趋同刀模型是目前
研究中国省域经济增长截面趋同比较合适的模型，趋同速度约为2%，这与目前跨国截面研
究的结果基本一致。地理因素和空间溢出效应一起对经济增长和收入差距产生重要影响。劳
动力、人力资本、对外开放(国际贸易、FDI)、企业制度改革、公路网络密度等对各省的
经济增长从不同的角度对经济增长率产生正面作用，而人力资本投资、国内贸易(地区分割)、
人口密度、邮电通讯的作用为负;工业化进程、政府消费的影响不显著，工业化和政府行为
在经济增长过程中的作用值得关注。
第六章提出了中国省域和城乡经济增长差异研究的理论模型，构建了一个针对合成数据
的空间过滤动态合成数据模型，实证研究结果表明:空间过滤是去除经济增长变量间空间自
相关性的有效方法，省域经济增长表现出了条件趋同的趋势;省域经济增长差异和条件趋同
机制的形成原因比较复杂，起正面作用的因素主要有总储蓄率、人力资本积累?
This dissertation reconsiders the question of Chinese economic convergence club from a spatial econometric perspective and aims at two central objectives. The first is to delineates the trend of Chinese regional disparities and its spatial dynamics over the 1978-2002 period, based on recently developed methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as well as the decomposition techniques of Theil and Gini indices. The second objective is to apply a set of spatial econometric models to examine the growth convergence over the sample period and to explain the performance and mechanism of recent Chinese economic growth from a new growth theory and new economic geography perspective.
The dissertation is organized as follows: Chapter 1 indicates the necessity and significance of the research, provides a concise literature review, lists the problematic issues in the existing literature.
Chapter 2 is for development of a theoretical framework. The theorizing work begins with the so-called Solow-Swan core model of growth from neoclassical theory, and then it moves beyond the neoclassical model to incorporate the novel ideas of new growth theory and new economic geography. In order to take account of spatial effects as prescribed in the First Law of Geography by Tobler, a GfS-SA platform is devised and a panel database is constructed to facilitate a time-space empirical analysis of Chinese economic growth and convergence patterns.
Chapter 3 is devoted to a Chinese regional convergence study from a a-convergence perspective, followed with an exploratory spatial data analysis based on the recent developed methods in the area.
Chapter 4 tries to determine the cointegration and causal-effect relationship of economic growth and income disparities using a cointegration model and a Granger causal-effect model, with the results being as expected.
In Chapter 5, based on a B -convergence model of Barro and
Salad-I-Martin neoclassical theory of growth, the convergence rate of Chinese regional economic growth over the 1978-2002 period is estimated first by ordinary least squares and, then, due to the presence of spatial dependence in the population residual terms, a spatial error model in the line of Anselin's spatial econometrics is specified and re-estimated with maximum likelihood method.
Chapter 6 examines the provincial convergence issue and its cause, urban-rural issue and its widening economic gap. Following a Getis-Griffith's approach, a spatial autoregressive filtering technique is adopted and the spatial effects embedded in the panel dataset are filtered out according to a local Gi* measure of each observation. As consequences, a best linear unbiased estimator of ordinary least squares is used in estimating on the panel data. Results show that there is an evidence of conditional convergence in China's provincial economic growth. In other words, regional per capita GDP growth rate is negatively correlated with its initial year's per capita GDP level. Another finding is that the estimated convergence rate of panel data is higher than that estimated using cross-sectional data, implying the possible bias with the cross-sectional data estimation.
Chapter 7 is an examination on the sources of Chinese economic growth at a more disaggregated county level from a theoretical perspective of endogenous growth and increasing returns. Empirical estimates show that investment in a county's human capital, urbanization, industrialization and information not only contribute that county's economic growth performance, but also diffuses the momentum of growth to nearby county in the form of economically positive spillovers.
Chapter 8 is conclusion, the research results are summarized, conclusions are made, and suggestions for future study are proposed.
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