经济增长与人力资本积累研究
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摘要
对于一个国家或地区,经济增长是首要问题,人力资本积累是最为基础保障。而驱动经济增长和人力资本积累最为重要的力量之一是科技进步。当今世界,科学技术突飞猛进,以信息技术为主要标志的科学技术日新月异,高科技成果向现实生产力的转化越来越快。知识经济预示人类社会生活将发生新的巨大变化,许多国家都已经把发展科学技术作为抢占发展经济的制高点。
本文首先从古典经济学到现代经济增长理论,再到新经济增长理论梳理了经济增长理论;从古典经济学时期到新古典经济学时期,再到现代人力资本理论梳理了人力资本思想。不难发现,经济增长理论从不同角度指出了技术进步对经济的影响和作用,但并没有引起人力资本理论研究者的足够重视。科学研究和技术创新在人力资本积累中的地位和作用受到了明显的忽视。
正因为如此,本文依次考察了科学技术对史前人类的影响,对欧美工业革命的影响,以及对第一次和第二次工业革命的影响。通过考察科学技术的发展历程,对比经济增长阶段和人力资本积累阶段,发现科学技术的前进对于社会进步的贡献都是有目共睹的。
进而,本文探索了科技进步与经济增长、人力资本积累的作用机制,从科技进步的角度出发,建立了科技驱动经济增长与人力资本积累的模型。模型以科技财力投入和科技人力投入为起点,通过知识增长和技术创新促进科技进步;科技进步带来人力资本积累和经济增长;与此同时,人力资本积累和经济增长之后可以反过来进一步加大科技财力投入和科技财力投入,形成了促进社会进步的良性循环系统。
实证分析研究检验了科技驱动模型。分别从“科技进步环境”、“科技活动投入”、“科技活动产出”、“高新技术产业化”以及“科技促进经济社会发展”五个方面构建了贵州科技进步综合指数。
在贵州科技进步与经济增长的相关性研究中,分别考察了科技进步与贵州人均GDP、贵州三次产业产值之间关的系。结果表明,在其他条件不变情况下,科技进步综合指数每增加1个百分点,可带来贵州人均GDP增加67.92元;或第一产业产值增加6.32亿元;或第二产业产值增加30.86亿元;或第三产业产值增加30.23亿元。
在科技进步与人力资本积累的相关性研究中,分别与科技人力资源中三支最重要的力量(专业技术人员、科技活动人员和R&D人员)进行了实证分析,其中主要考察了科技进步综合指数与专业技术人员的相关性。结果表明,在其他条件不变情况下,科技进步综合指数每增加1个百分点,可带来高级职称专业技术人员增加609人;或中级职称专业技术人员增加2481人;或具有本科及本科以上学历专业技术人员增加2810人;或具有中专学历专业技术人员增加7074人。
在政策建议部分,致力于构建科技进步促进贵州经济可持续发展的政策体系。为此,以科学发展观为指导,制定了该政策体系的指导思想和基本原则,然后分别从促进科技进步的五个指标出发,提出有利于各指标值提升的建议,为贵州科技人力资本积累和经济实现可持续发展建言献策。
For a country or region, economic growth is the primary problem. Human capital accumulation are the most basic protection. But scientific and technological progress is one of the most important strength of driving economic growth and human capital accumulation.
Today, science and technology are rapidly advancing. Information technology as the main indicator of science and technology is passing each day;high-tech achievements into practical productive forces are more and more rapidly. Knowledge-based economy indicates social life of mankind will be tremendous changed.Many countries have put the development of science and technology as to seize the commanding heights of economic development.
First of all, from classical economics to modern economic growth theory, and then to the new economic growth theory, this paper sorts out the economic growth theory. From classical economics to the new classical economics during the period, and then to modern human capital theory, this paper cards the idea of human capital. It's not difficult to find that economic growth theory pointed out the technological advances impact on the economy and the role from different angles, but it did not cause the researchers of human capital theory a great importance. The status and role of scientific research and technological innovation in human capital accumulation have been clearly neglected.
Based on this reason, this article studied the course of development of science and technology from prehistoric to modern scientific and technological revolution. By comparing the phase of economic growth and human capital accumulation phase, this article found that the advance of science and technology made enormous contributions to social progress.
Further, this article found one mechanism between scientific and technological progress, economic growth and human capital accumulation. From the perspective of scientific and technological progress, this article has established the model of technology-driven economic growth and human capital accumulation. The model is based on the inputs that financial and human resources as a starting point, through knowledge growth and technological innovation to promote scientific and technological progress. Scientific and technological progress brought about by human capital accumulation and economic growth, thereby promoting social progress.
An empirical analysis of research has tested the technology-driven model. This article builds a composite index of Guizhou from the five areas of scientific and technological progress those are "Progress of science and technology environment," "Technology investment activity", "Technology of output activity," "high-tech industrialization" and "science and technology for economic and social development".
On the relevance study between scientific and technological progress with economic progress, it respectively visites the scientific and technological progress and "the GDP per capita in Guizhou", "Guizhou three industries". In case of other conditions remaining unchanged, the results show that technology advances composite indexs which improve for each 1% can lead to increase 67.92 yuan per capita GDP in Guizhou; or increase in the primary industry output value 632 million yuan; or increase in secondary industry output value of 3.086 billion; or increase in tertiary industry output value of 3.023 billion.
On the relevance study between scientific and technological progress with human capital accumulation, it carried out an empirical model analysis separately with the science and technology human resources in the three most important forces (professional and technical personnel, science and technology activities and R & D staffs) . It main studied between the composite index of scientific and technological progress with technical personnel and professional relevance. The results show that technology advances composite indexs which improve for each 1% can lead to increase 609 people of advanced professional and technical personnel; or 2,481 people of intermediate professional and technical personnel; or 2,810 people with undergraduate and graduate from college or higher professional and technical personnel; or 7,074 people with vocational education has a professional and technical personnel.
In the policy recommendations, it committed to building a scientific and technological progress to promote sustainable development in Guizhou's economic policy system. Thereby, guided by the scientific development concept, this article formulated the guiding ideology and basic principles for the policy system. Then separately from the promotion of scientific and technological progress of the five indicators, it proposed recommendations which benefits for all of the indicators to enhance for Guizhou technology human capital accumulation and achieving sustainable development.
本文首先从古典经济学到现代经济增长理论,再到新经济增长理论梳理了经济增长理论;从古典经济学时期到新古典经济学时期,再到现代人力资本理论梳理了人力资本思想。不难发现,经济增长理论从不同角度指出了技术进步对经济的影响和作用,但并没有引起人力资本理论研究者的足够重视。科学研究和技术创新在人力资本积累中的地位和作用受到了明显的忽视。
正因为如此,本文依次考察了科学技术对史前人类的影响,对欧美工业革命的影响,以及对第一次和第二次工业革命的影响。通过考察科学技术的发展历程,对比经济增长阶段和人力资本积累阶段,发现科学技术的前进对于社会进步的贡献都是有目共睹的。
进而,本文探索了科技进步与经济增长、人力资本积累的作用机制,从科技进步的角度出发,建立了科技驱动经济增长与人力资本积累的模型。模型以科技财力投入和科技人力投入为起点,通过知识增长和技术创新促进科技进步;科技进步带来人力资本积累和经济增长;与此同时,人力资本积累和经济增长之后可以反过来进一步加大科技财力投入和科技财力投入,形成了促进社会进步的良性循环系统。
实证分析研究检验了科技驱动模型。分别从“科技进步环境”、“科技活动投入”、“科技活动产出”、“高新技术产业化”以及“科技促进经济社会发展”五个方面构建了贵州科技进步综合指数。
在贵州科技进步与经济增长的相关性研究中,分别考察了科技进步与贵州人均GDP、贵州三次产业产值之间关的系。结果表明,在其他条件不变情况下,科技进步综合指数每增加1个百分点,可带来贵州人均GDP增加67.92元;或第一产业产值增加6.32亿元;或第二产业产值增加30.86亿元;或第三产业产值增加30.23亿元。
在科技进步与人力资本积累的相关性研究中,分别与科技人力资源中三支最重要的力量(专业技术人员、科技活动人员和R&D人员)进行了实证分析,其中主要考察了科技进步综合指数与专业技术人员的相关性。结果表明,在其他条件不变情况下,科技进步综合指数每增加1个百分点,可带来高级职称专业技术人员增加609人;或中级职称专业技术人员增加2481人;或具有本科及本科以上学历专业技术人员增加2810人;或具有中专学历专业技术人员增加7074人。
在政策建议部分,致力于构建科技进步促进贵州经济可持续发展的政策体系。为此,以科学发展观为指导,制定了该政策体系的指导思想和基本原则,然后分别从促进科技进步的五个指标出发,提出有利于各指标值提升的建议,为贵州科技人力资本积累和经济实现可持续发展建言献策。
For a country or region, economic growth is the primary problem. Human capital accumulation are the most basic protection. But scientific and technological progress is one of the most important strength of driving economic growth and human capital accumulation.
Today, science and technology are rapidly advancing. Information technology as the main indicator of science and technology is passing each day;high-tech achievements into practical productive forces are more and more rapidly. Knowledge-based economy indicates social life of mankind will be tremendous changed.Many countries have put the development of science and technology as to seize the commanding heights of economic development.
First of all, from classical economics to modern economic growth theory, and then to the new economic growth theory, this paper sorts out the economic growth theory. From classical economics to the new classical economics during the period, and then to modern human capital theory, this paper cards the idea of human capital. It's not difficult to find that economic growth theory pointed out the technological advances impact on the economy and the role from different angles, but it did not cause the researchers of human capital theory a great importance. The status and role of scientific research and technological innovation in human capital accumulation have been clearly neglected.
Based on this reason, this article studied the course of development of science and technology from prehistoric to modern scientific and technological revolution. By comparing the phase of economic growth and human capital accumulation phase, this article found that the advance of science and technology made enormous contributions to social progress.
Further, this article found one mechanism between scientific and technological progress, economic growth and human capital accumulation. From the perspective of scientific and technological progress, this article has established the model of technology-driven economic growth and human capital accumulation. The model is based on the inputs that financial and human resources as a starting point, through knowledge growth and technological innovation to promote scientific and technological progress. Scientific and technological progress brought about by human capital accumulation and economic growth, thereby promoting social progress.
An empirical analysis of research has tested the technology-driven model. This article builds a composite index of Guizhou from the five areas of scientific and technological progress those are "Progress of science and technology environment," "Technology investment activity", "Technology of output activity," "high-tech industrialization" and "science and technology for economic and social development".
On the relevance study between scientific and technological progress with economic progress, it respectively visites the scientific and technological progress and "the GDP per capita in Guizhou", "Guizhou three industries". In case of other conditions remaining unchanged, the results show that technology advances composite indexs which improve for each 1% can lead to increase 67.92 yuan per capita GDP in Guizhou; or increase in the primary industry output value 632 million yuan; or increase in secondary industry output value of 3.086 billion; or increase in tertiary industry output value of 3.023 billion.
On the relevance study between scientific and technological progress with human capital accumulation, it carried out an empirical model analysis separately with the science and technology human resources in the three most important forces (professional and technical personnel, science and technology activities and R & D staffs) . It main studied between the composite index of scientific and technological progress with technical personnel and professional relevance. The results show that technology advances composite indexs which improve for each 1% can lead to increase 609 people of advanced professional and technical personnel; or 2,481 people of intermediate professional and technical personnel; or 2,810 people with undergraduate and graduate from college or higher professional and technical personnel; or 7,074 people with vocational education has a professional and technical personnel.
In the policy recommendations, it committed to building a scientific and technological progress to promote sustainable development in Guizhou's economic policy system. Thereby, guided by the scientific development concept, this article formulated the guiding ideology and basic principles for the policy system. Then separately from the promotion of scientific and technological progress of the five indicators, it proposed recommendations which benefits for all of the indicators to enhance for Guizhou technology human capital accumulation and achieving sustainable development.
引文
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31《贵州2007年公民科学素质调查》显示具备基本科学素质的男性公民比例为1.5%,而女性为0.7%。
32科技三项费用是指为支持科技事业发展而设立的新产品试制费、中间试验费和重大科研项目补助费。
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