国内结构与制度影响：国际气候制度在中、美两国的影响研究（1990-2010）
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摘要
全球气候危机的日益加剧催生了国际气候谈判的开启。由于进行温室气体减排涉及到各国的历史和代际间的公平、发展权益的保护、新能源和环保节能技术的开发以及资金的转移等问题,这导致了气候变化问题经历了一个从“科学”到“政治”的“政治化”进程。本文认为,应当以辩证的态度来看待全球公共问题的“政治化”现象。全球气候变化问题的“政治化”既会产生消极的影响,也有其积极的一面,不应予以全面否定。
作为世界上最大的两个温室气体排放国,中国和美国在全球气候治理中扮演着至关重要的角色。本文借鉴现有研究成果,将国家参与国际制度划分为两种情形——正向参与和反向参与。前者反映了国家与国际制度之间的一种积极关系；后者反映的是国家与国际制度之间的消极关系。通过对中、美两国参与国际气候制度的实践梳理和国际气候制度在两国的影响评判,本文研究发现：总体上而言,中国正向参与了国际气候制度,并且国际气候制度在中国国内发挥了积极的影响,产生了内化效应。美国反向参与了国际气候制度,后者在美国虽然也产生了一定影响,但美国国内的回应多半是消极被动的。换言之,国际气候制度在美国并没有产生明显的内化效应。
而对相似的气候变化挑战和温室气体减排压力,中、美两国除了基于国家利益的不同考量之外,作为一种干预变量的国内结构在国际气候制度产生差异性影响的过程中发挥着不可忽视的作用。本文将国家的国内结构类型划分为国家主导型和社会主导型两类,前者以中国为代表,后者以美国为典型。本文研究认为,在中国的国主导型国内结构中,国家权相对集中,国家领导层一旦接受某项国际制度,会很容易在国内自上而下的实施制度。而在美国的社会主导型国内结构中,有效的政策制定总是需要不同部门和机构“权力妥协”和“利益纷争”,这是一个艰难而复杂的博弈过程,无疑会降低国际制度进入国内几率或者令前者产生积极效应的可能性大打折扣。上述解释是构成国际气候制度在中国产生积极影响和内化效应,而在美国则受到某种程度的抵制,未产生内化效应的重要原因之一。需要特别强调的是,本项研究中所涉及的国内结构类型并无任何褒贬色彩,也不能根据本文的研究结论就此断定国家主导型国内结构比社会主导型国内结构具有所谓的“优越性”。最后,论文就本项研究对中国的政策启示作了粗浅的分析,并指出了未来有待进一步探讨的问题。
The aggravating global climate crisis facilitates the emergence of international negotiations over climate governance. Cutting the Green House Gas emissions will definitely involve many countries'interest, such as the historical and intergenerational equality, the protection of development rights, the development of new energy and environment-friendly technology, and the transfer of funds. The above-mentioned concerns make the climate change issue——originally scientific problem and later political dispute——fall into a process of politicization. This study takes a dialectical approach to treat the phenomenon of politicization in the field of global public issues. As a typical global public issue, the politicization of climate change issue has both its positive and negative effects, and this cannot be completely negated.
As the two biggest Green House Gas emitters in the world, China and the United States play critical roles in the global climate governance. Based on current studies, this dissertation divides countries'engagement with international institutions into two circumstances, namely active engagement and passive engagement. The former reflects active relations between the participants and international institutions. However, the latter reflects a kind of negative relations. By respectively studying the engagement of China and the United States with the international climate institutions and evaluating the effects of international climate institutions in the two countries' domestic circle, this dissertation finds that China takes an active engagement and the international climate institutions have made a positive influence and produced the internalization effects domestically. However, the United States takes a passive engagement with the international climate institutions. The international climate institutions do make an impact on the United States, but its response to the international climate institutions is generally negative. In other words, the international climate institutions do not produce apparent internalization effects in the United States.
China and the United States are facing the similar climate change challenge and the pressure of reducing Green House Gas emissions. There is no doubt that the two countries'climate change policies are based on their own national interest. Besides that, the domestic structure, as an intervening variable, also plays a critical role in the process of affecting the domestic politics mad by international climate institutions. This study generally makes the domestic structure into two types, namely state-dominated and society-dominated. Typically, China maintains a state-dominated structure and the United States holds a society-dominated one. In the state-dominated structure of China, the power of state is relatively concentrated. Once the state leaders accept some international institution, it would be easier for China to take top-down implementations domestically. In the society-dominated structure of the United States, however, the effective policies always need power compromise or struggles for interest among different institutions and agencies. It is a kind of complex bargaining with great difficulty. This will undoubtedly lower the possibility for international institutions entering into the domestic circle, or let the former's effect discount. This will partly explain why the international climate institutions have made active influences and internalization effects in China, but failed in the United States. It should be stressed in particular that the types of domestic structure mentioned in this study have no commendatory or derogatory meaning. No one could make a conclusion that the state-dominated structure has advantages over society-dominated structure through this study. Finally, this study shortly discusses the policy implications for China and the issues to be further explored.
作为世界上最大的两个温室气体排放国,中国和美国在全球气候治理中扮演着至关重要的角色。本文借鉴现有研究成果,将国家参与国际制度划分为两种情形——正向参与和反向参与。前者反映了国家与国际制度之间的一种积极关系；后者反映的是国家与国际制度之间的消极关系。通过对中、美两国参与国际气候制度的实践梳理和国际气候制度在两国的影响评判,本文研究发现：总体上而言,中国正向参与了国际气候制度,并且国际气候制度在中国国内发挥了积极的影响,产生了内化效应。美国反向参与了国际气候制度,后者在美国虽然也产生了一定影响,但美国国内的回应多半是消极被动的。换言之,国际气候制度在美国并没有产生明显的内化效应。
而对相似的气候变化挑战和温室气体减排压力,中、美两国除了基于国家利益的不同考量之外,作为一种干预变量的国内结构在国际气候制度产生差异性影响的过程中发挥着不可忽视的作用。本文将国家的国内结构类型划分为国家主导型和社会主导型两类,前者以中国为代表,后者以美国为典型。本文研究认为,在中国的国主导型国内结构中,国家权相对集中,国家领导层一旦接受某项国际制度,会很容易在国内自上而下的实施制度。而在美国的社会主导型国内结构中,有效的政策制定总是需要不同部门和机构“权力妥协”和“利益纷争”,这是一个艰难而复杂的博弈过程,无疑会降低国际制度进入国内几率或者令前者产生积极效应的可能性大打折扣。上述解释是构成国际气候制度在中国产生积极影响和内化效应,而在美国则受到某种程度的抵制,未产生内化效应的重要原因之一。需要特别强调的是,本项研究中所涉及的国内结构类型并无任何褒贬色彩,也不能根据本文的研究结论就此断定国家主导型国内结构比社会主导型国内结构具有所谓的“优越性”。最后,论文就本项研究对中国的政策启示作了粗浅的分析,并指出了未来有待进一步探讨的问题。
The aggravating global climate crisis facilitates the emergence of international negotiations over climate governance. Cutting the Green House Gas emissions will definitely involve many countries'interest, such as the historical and intergenerational equality, the protection of development rights, the development of new energy and environment-friendly technology, and the transfer of funds. The above-mentioned concerns make the climate change issue——originally scientific problem and later political dispute——fall into a process of politicization. This study takes a dialectical approach to treat the phenomenon of politicization in the field of global public issues. As a typical global public issue, the politicization of climate change issue has both its positive and negative effects, and this cannot be completely negated.
As the two biggest Green House Gas emitters in the world, China and the United States play critical roles in the global climate governance. Based on current studies, this dissertation divides countries'engagement with international institutions into two circumstances, namely active engagement and passive engagement. The former reflects active relations between the participants and international institutions. However, the latter reflects a kind of negative relations. By respectively studying the engagement of China and the United States with the international climate institutions and evaluating the effects of international climate institutions in the two countries' domestic circle, this dissertation finds that China takes an active engagement and the international climate institutions have made a positive influence and produced the internalization effects domestically. However, the United States takes a passive engagement with the international climate institutions. The international climate institutions do make an impact on the United States, but its response to the international climate institutions is generally negative. In other words, the international climate institutions do not produce apparent internalization effects in the United States.
China and the United States are facing the similar climate change challenge and the pressure of reducing Green House Gas emissions. There is no doubt that the two countries'climate change policies are based on their own national interest. Besides that, the domestic structure, as an intervening variable, also plays a critical role in the process of affecting the domestic politics mad by international climate institutions. This study generally makes the domestic structure into two types, namely state-dominated and society-dominated. Typically, China maintains a state-dominated structure and the United States holds a society-dominated one. In the state-dominated structure of China, the power of state is relatively concentrated. Once the state leaders accept some international institution, it would be easier for China to take top-down implementations domestically. In the society-dominated structure of the United States, however, the effective policies always need power compromise or struggles for interest among different institutions and agencies. It is a kind of complex bargaining with great difficulty. This will undoubtedly lower the possibility for international institutions entering into the domestic circle, or let the former's effect discount. This will partly explain why the international climate institutions have made active influences and internalization effects in China, but failed in the United States. It should be stressed in particular that the types of domestic structure mentioned in this study have no commendatory or derogatory meaning. No one could make a conclusion that the state-dominated structure has advantages over society-dominated structure through this study. Finally, this study shortly discusses the policy implications for China and the issues to be further explored.
引文
1 李少军：《当代全球问题》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2006年版,第29页。2 伊拉克冲突死亡人数已超卢旺达大屠杀http://world.people.com.cn/GB/1029/42361/6274260.html,2007年9月17日,人民网。
3 有关恐怖主义的详细研究,参见王逸舟等著《恐怖主义溯源：中国人的视角》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2010年版；张家栋：《恐怖主义论》,北京：时事出版社,2007年版；张家栋：《全球化时代的恐怖主义及其治理》,是海：上海三联书店2007年版。
4 关于非传统安全的详细介绍,参见陆忠伟主编：《非传统安全论》,北京：时事出版社,2003年版：余潇枫等：《非传统安全概论》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2006年版。
5 有关全球公共卫生治理的研究,参见晋继勇：《全球公共卫生治理中的国际机制分析》,复旦大学2009年博士论文,未出版。
6 联合国开发计划署：《2003年人类发展报告》,北京：中国财政经济出版社2003年版,第44页。
7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurrity in the World 2004, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla,00100 Rome, Italy,2004转移自李少军：《当代全球问题》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2006年版,第139页。
8 蔡拓：《全球问题与当代国际关系》,天津：天津人民出版社,2002年版,第116页。
9 Robert O. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, pp.3-4.
10 转引自Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge press, 1996, p.17.
11 Svante Arrhenius, "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air on the temperature of the ground", Philosophical Magazine, No.41,1896, p.266.转引自Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge press,1996, p.19-20.
12 Svante Arrhenius, Words in the Making:the Evolution of the Universe, New York:Harper Press, 1908, p.54.
13 Revelle, R. and Suess, H., "Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean, and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2, during the past decades", Tellus, Vol9, No.18,1957, p.19.
14 参见该组织官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
15 参见IPCC第四次综合评估报告：http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
16 潘家华、凯利·西蒙斯·加拉格尔：《全球变暖——呼唤节制之路》,载[美]理查德·罗斯科兰斯、顾国良主编：《力量与克制：中美关系的共同愿景》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2010年版,第125页。
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20 美国知名中国问题专家李侃如(Kenneth Lieberthal)特别强调中美两国在全球关键问题上(例如气候变化)进行合作对双边关系和全球问题治理的重要性。参见李侃如＆戴维·桑德罗(David Sandalow):《客服中美气候变化合作的障碍》,美国布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心专题论文系列一号,2009年1月,第9页。Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/～/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/01_climate_change_lieberthal sandalow/ 01 climate_change_cn.pdf
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24 哈丁和奥尔森的集体行动的困境实际上是从联合供给联合消费之类的公共物品角度出发的,但也有的公共物品是以个体供给但联合消费形式或联合供给但却是以个体消费形式表现出来。不同的供给——消费表现形式面临的问题和解决的途径是有所不同的,这是研究全球公共事务合作问题所不能忽视和混淆的重要方面。参见：苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第14页
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62 Duncan Brack, Michael Grubb and Craig Windram, International Trade and Climate Change Policies, London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,2000.
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69 关于气候变化与国家安全的研究报告和论文,参见Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (2003); Joshua W. Busby:Climate Change and National Security:An Agenda for Action (2007); "Climate Change and International Security", Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council(2008); Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole Magnus Theisen:Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict (2008); Oli Brown and Alec Crawford:Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa(2008); Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix:The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change (2007); John Podesta and Peter Ogden, "The Security Implications of Climate Change," The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-08, pp.115-138; Busby J W., "Who cares about the weather? Climate Change and U.S. National Security," Security Studies,2008,17 (3):468-504; Salehyan I, "From climate change to conflict? no consensus yet," Journal of Peace Research,2008,45 (3):315-326; Paris R. Human security:paradigm shift or hot air? [C]//Brown M E, Cote O R, Jr. New Global Dangers:Changing Dimensions of International Security. London:The MIT Press,2004; Climate Change & Security, Conference Report. CERI, Paris-20 January 2009; Heinz-Dieter Jopp and Roland Kaestner. Climate Change and Security in the 21st Century; Dr. Lassi Heininen:Climate Change causing Changes in Problem Definition on Security, The 49th Annual Convention of ISA San Francisco, USA, March 26th-29th of 2008; Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal:Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, Paper presented to the 47th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA,22-25 March 2006; Ragnhild Nordas & Nils Petter Gleditsch:Climate Conflict:Common Sense or Nonsense? (2005); Michael C. Maccracken, Eric J. Barron, David R. Easterling, Benjamin S. Felzer, and Thomas R. Karl, "Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment," American Meteorological Society, December 2003; The CAN Corporation:National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007), http://www.npr.org/documents/2007/apr/security climate.pdf Fingar T. National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 [R/OL], http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20080625_testimony.pdf
张海滨：《美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评》,载《气候变化研究进展》,2009年第3期,第145-150页。
70 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (2003). http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
71 The CAN Corporation:National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007). http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
72 http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
73 Mark J. Lacy, Security and Climate Change:International Relations and the Limits of Realism, Abingdon:Routledge 2005.
74 Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008.
75 Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008, pp.217-220.
76 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆,2003年版。
77 潘家华、庄贵阳、陈迎：《减缓气候变化的经济分析》,北京：气象出版社,2003年版。
78 庄贵阳、陈迎：《国际气候制度与中国》,北京：世界知识出版社,2005年版。
79 林云华：《国际气候合作与排放权交易制度研究》,北京：中国经济出版社,2007年版。
80 杨兴：《<气候变化框架公约研究>——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社,2007年版。
81 薄燕：《国际谈判与国内政治：美国与<京都议定书>谈判的实例》,上海：上海三联书店,2007年版。
82 陈刚：《<京都议定书>与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社,2008年版。
83 张利军：《中美关于应对气候变化的协商与合作》,北京：世界知识出版社,2008年版。
84 庄贵阳、朱仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2009年版。
85 杨洁勉主编：《世界气候外交和中国的应对》,北京：时事出版社,2009年版。86 唐颖侠：《国际气候变化条约的遵守机制研究》,北京：人民出版社,2009年版。
87 唐张侠：《国际气候变化条约的遵守机制研究》,北京：人民出版社,2009年版,第269页。
88 于宏源：《环境变化和权势转移：制度、博弈和应对》,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版。
89 除了本文直接提及的《气候变化与中国国家安全》一书外,国内学者王丹还专门就气候变化对中国的粮食安全的影响和对策进行了研究。限于篇幅,本文不再赘述。参见王丹：《气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响和对策研究》,武汉：湖北人民出版社,2011年版。
90 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社,2010年版。
91 张焕波：《中国、美国和欧盟气候政策分析》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010年版。
92 陈鹤：《气候危机与中国应对——全球暖化背景下的中国气候软战略》,北京：人民出版社,2010年版,第209页。
93 庄贵阳：《低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路》,北京：气象出版社,2007年版。
94 张坤民、潘家华、崔大鹏主编：《低碳经济论》北京：中国环境科学出版社,2008年版。
95 例如,《国家利益的科学论证与国际政治妥协——联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(关于减缓气候变化社会经济分析评估报告)述评》、《减缓气候变化的经济与政治影响及其地区差异》、《试析国际气候谈判中的国家集团及其影响》、《环境容量与能源创新——国际气候变化谈判的二元博弈视角》等。
96 例如,《<京都议定书>的前途及其国际经济和政治影响》、《后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考》、
97 例如,《中国与欧洲在能源和气候安全领域的相互依存性》、《陆克文政府气候变化与能源政策评析——兼论其对中国的启示》、《美国温室气体减排新方案及其影响》、《日本应对气候变化的战略、措施与困难》等。
98 例如,《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》、《气候变化国际制度议价和中国》、《中国与国际环境机制：从国际履约角度进行的分析》、《中国应对气候变化谈判的几点思考》、《<联合国气候变化框架公约>与中国气候变化政策协调的发展》、《国际制度和中国气候变化软能力建设——基于两次问卷调查的结果分析》等。
99 阎学通、孙学峰,《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京：人民出版社,2007年版,第20-21页。
100 朱明权：《政策、理论和历史的三位一体：也谈国际关系的研究方法》,载于苏长和等主编：《国际关系研究：理论、视角与方法》,上海：文汇出版社,2002年版,第287-301页。
101 陈波等编著：《社会科学方法论》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,1989年版,第121-122页。
102 [美]吴量福：《政治学研究方法与论文撰写》,天津：天津人民出版社,2007年版,第6页。
103 阎学通、孙学峰：《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京：人民出版社,2007年版,第118页。
104 李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第128页。
105 李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第99页。
106 参见资中筠：《理论创新从研究新问题中来》,载《世界经济与政治》(卷首语),2003年第3期。
1 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations:the Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1973, p.8-27.有关政治现实主义的论述,还可参见Roger D. Spegele, Political Realism in International Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996. 2 Joseph M. Grieco, "Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation:A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism", in David A. Baldwin eds., Neorealism and neoliberalism:the contemporary debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993, p.116.
3 [美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著,门洪华译：《权力与相互依赖》(第三版),北京：北京大学出版社,2002年版,第3页。
4 这方面的代表作有：Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, 1984; Robert 0 · Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1986; Kenneth Oye, eds., Cooperation under Anarchy, Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press,1986; Robert O · Keohane, International Institutions and State Power, Boulder:Westview,1989; David A·Baldwin, ed, Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993. Lisa L. Martin & Beth A. Simmons, ed., International Institutions:An International Organization Reader, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001.
5 Lisa L. Martin and Beth A. Simmons eds., International Institutions:An InternationalOrganization Reader, Boston:The MIT Press,2001, p.1.
6 陈晓进：《国际制度的概念辨析》,载《国际观察》2000年第6期,第6页
7 Charles Pcntland, "Building Global Institutions", in Gavin Boyd and Charles Pentland, eds., Issues in Global Politics, London:the Free Press,1981, pp.326-365.
8 Robert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?", Foreign Policy, No.110, Spring 1998, p.82.
9 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海： 上海人民出版社2009年版,第63-66页。
10 罗竹风主编：《汉语大词典》(第二卷,上册,第2版),上海：汉语大词典出版社2001年版,第664-665页。
11 中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编：《现代汉语词典》(增补本),商务印书馆2002年版,第1622页。
12 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第61页。
13 [美]杰克·谱拉诺等著,胡杰译：《政治学分析辞典》,北京：中国社会科学出版社1986年版,第77页。需要说明的是,本词典属于早期译作,其将institutionsi译成了机构。为了与当下的研究接轨,本文一律将英文中的institutions 译成制度。
14 Frank Bealey, The Blackwell Dictionary of Political Science, Oxford:Blackwell Publishing Ltd.,1999, p.166.
15 [美]罗伯特·默顿：《制度化的社会逻辑》,载《中国社会学刊》(台湾),1988年第12期。 转引自陈晓进：《国际制度的概念辨析》,载《国际观察》2000年第6期,第7页。
16 Webster's Third New International Dictionary, Springfield:Merrian-Webster Inc., Publishers, 1993, p.1911.
17 参见王杰主编：《国际机制论》,北京：新华出版社2002年版,第2页；王逸舟：《当代国际政治析论》,上海：上海人民出版社1995年版,第369页。
18 Susan Strange, "Cave! Hic Dragones:A Critique of Regime Analysis", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2,1982, pp.344-345.
19 Ernst B. Hass, "On Systems and International Regimes", World Politics, Vol.27, No.2,1975, Pp.147-174.
20 John G. Ruggie, "International Responses to Technology:Concept and Trends," International Organization, Vol.29, No.3,1975, pp.557-583.
21 Oran R. Young, "International Regimes:Problems of Concept Formation", World Politics, Vol. 32, No.3 (Apr.,1980), pp.331-356.
22 Stephen D. Krasner, "Structural Causes and Regime Consequences:Regimes as Intervening Variables", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2,1982, p.186.该文后来被收入克拉斯纳主编的《国际机制》一书中,参见Stephen D. Krasner eds., International Regimes, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1983, pp.1-22.
23 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984, p.64.基欧汉在《国际制度与国家权力》一书中将国际机制进一步定义为“具有明确规则,得到政府同意,适合于国际关系中特定领域的制度”。参见Robert Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.4.这种解释又被称为国际机制定义中的“简单定义”,因为这种定义方式只使用“规则”一个因素来描述国际机制的规范系统,与克拉斯纳的定义形成对比,后者因此也被称为“复杂的定义”。关于这方面的论述,参见Andreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, Theories of International Regimes, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997, pp.11-14.
24 Oran R. Young, "International Regimes:Toward a New Theory of Institutions", World Politics, Vol.39, No.1,1986, p.106.
Oran Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1989, p.32.
26 [美]道格拉斯·诺斯著,刘守英译：《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》.上海：上海人民出版社1994年版,第5-6页。
27 张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第156页。
2“这山被称之为国际组织研究的第一波浪潮,参见苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,前言第2页。
29 Melquiades J. Gamboa eds., A Dictionary of International Law and Diplomacy, New York: Oceana Publications,1973, p.156.
30 Union of International Association, Yearbook of International Organization, Union of International Association,1990/91,28th edition:pp.16-45.
31 刘金质、梁守德、杨淮生主编：《国际政治大辞典》,北京：中国社会科学出版社1994年版,第31页。
32 参见Yearbook of International Organization
33 不可否认的是,早期的国际组织带有霸权国家,尤其是美国谋求控制其他国家的工具色彩,有学者称之为“制度霸权”。参见门洪华：《霸权之翼：美国国际制度战略》,北京：北京大学出版社2005年版。
34 张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第131页。35 Robert 0. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.3.
Robert 0. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.3-4.
37 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一咱制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第85-86页。
38 John Gerard Ruggie, "International responses to technology:Concepts and trends", International Organization, Vol.29,1975, pp.569-574.
John Gerard Ruggie, "International responses to technology:Concepts and trends", International Organization, Vol.29,1975, p.573.
40 田野：《国际制度与国家自主性——一项研究框架》,载《国际观察》,2008年第2期,第26页。
41 张宇燕、李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第137-138页。
42 Hedley Bull, "How is Order Maintained in World Politics", in Oran R. Young eds., The International Political Economy and International Institutions (Volume Ⅱ), Cheltenham, UK: Brookfield, Vt.:E. Elgar Pub. Co.,1996, p.267.
43 有关国家主权理论的详细研究,参见肖佳灵：《国家主权论》,北京：时事出版社2003年版。
44 Ian Hurd, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics", International Organization, Vol. 53, No.2 (Spring,1999), p.393.
45 Robert O. Keohane, "The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International Economic Regimes,1967-1977", in Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alexander L. George eds., Change in the international system, Boulder, Colo.:Westview Press,1980, p.132.实际上,“霸权稳定论”这个词最早就是出自该文章。对霸权稳定论的批评性文章,参见Duncan Snidal, "The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory", International Organization, Vol.39, No.4 (Autumn,1985), pp.579-614.
46 参见Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1981.
47 参见张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第142页。
48 Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action:Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1971, p.51.
49 Hedley Bull, The anarchical society:a study of order in world politics (3rd edition), New York: Columbia University Press,2002, p.13.
50 Arthur Stein, "Coordination and Collaboration:Regimes in an Anarchic World", in David Baldwin eds., Neorealism and Neoliberalism:the Contemporary Debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993, p.47.
51 “囚徙困境”博弈最早由Merrill Flood和Melvin Dresher于1950年提出并由A.W. Tucker最终界定。参见Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers,1984, p.3-24.
52 Kenneth A. Oye, "Explaining Cooperation under Anarchy:Hypothesis and Strategies", in Kenneth A. Oye eds., Cooperation under Anarchy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1986, p.20.
53 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1984, p.101.
54[冰]思拉思·埃格特森：《新制度经济学》,吴经帮等译,北京：商务印书馆1996年版,第16-17页。
55 Todd Sandier and Jon Cauley, "The Design of Supernational Structure:an Economic Perspective", in Todd Sandier eds., The Theory and Structure of International Political Economy, Boulder:Westview,1980, p.42.
56 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1984, p.107-108.
57 参见Michael Barnett and Martha Finnemore, Rules for the World:International Organizations in Global Politics, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2004, pp.121-135.
Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy:Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.7.
59 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4 (Autumn,1978), pp.881-912.
60 其中的代表作品有Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-state Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995. Robert O. Keohane and Helen V. Milner, eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
61 秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第5页；吴征宇：《关于层次分析的若干问题》,载《欧洲》,2001年第6期,第1-6页。
Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959.
63 Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959, pp.159-223.
64秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第5页。
65 参见Morton Kaplan, System and process in international politics, New York:Wiley,1957.
66 Barry Buzan, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered", in Ken Booth and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Theory Today, Cambridge:Dolity Press, 1995, p.201. 57 J. David Singer, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.l,1961, pp.77-92.
68 J. David Singer, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, p.89.
69 倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海：复旦大学出版社2001年版,第100页。
70 James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy, London:Frances Printer,1980, pp.115-169.
71 Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics:A Menu for Choice, New York:W. H. Freeman, 1992, pp.11-17.
Andrew Moravcsik, "The New Liberalism'", in Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal, eds. The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2008, p.249.
73 J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, pp.81-82.
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Reading, Massachusetts:Addison-Wesley, 1979, pp.93-97.
75 J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, p.80.
76 Kenneth N. Waltz, "Reflections on Theory of International Politics:A Response to My Critics", in Robert O. Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics, New York:Columbia University Press 1986, p.340.
J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", p.83;秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第9-10页。
78 Glenn D. Paige, The Korean decision, June 24-30,1950, New York:Free Press,1968.
Graham Allison, Philip Zelikow, Essence of decision:explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis,2nd ed, New York:Longman,1999.
80 参见Andrew Moravcsik, "Taking Preferences Seriously:A Liberal Theory of International Politics", International Organization, Vol.51, No.4,1997, pp.522-523.
81 左希迎：《层次分析的反思与研究领域的拓展》,载《世界经济与政治》2008年第7期, 第63页。
82 朱天飚：《比较政治经济学》,北京：北京大学出版社2006年版,第8页。
83 王逸舟：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第510页。
84 在英语言文献中,层次互动或跨层光华分析(cross-level-analysis)有诸多表达方式,如links between/interaction between/connection between/interdependence of international and domestic politics等。参见吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89页。
85 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第88页。
86 参见吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89-90页。
Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games," International Organization, Vol.42, No.3,1988, pp.427-460.
88 薄燕：《双层次博弈理论：内在逻辑及其评价》,载《现代国际关系》,2003年第6期,第54页。
89 Peter B. Evans, "Building an Integrative Approach to International and Domestic Politics: Reflections and Projections," in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam ed., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.397.
90 Jeffrey W. Knopf; "Beyond Two-Level Games:Domestic-International Interaction in the Intermediate-Range NuclearForces Negotiations," International Organization, Vol.47, No.4, (Autumn 1993), pp.599-600. Daniel W. Drezner, "Introduction; The Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions," in Daniel W. Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:the Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions, Michigan:the University of Michigan Press,2003, p.4-7. 91 James E. Dougherty, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr, Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, New York:Longman,1997, pp.492-493.
92 后续的研究成果主要是论文集《双面外交：国际淡判和国内政治》,参见Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993.
93 Andrew Moravcsik, "Introduction:Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining," in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D.Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.5-9.
94 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.881-912
95 Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959.
96 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.881.李巍：《国际政治经济学的演进逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》,2009年第1期,第73页。
97 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.881.
98 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.911.
99 苏长如：《国内——国际互动与中国对外关系展开》, 载《教学与研究》2009年第10期,第38页。
100 曲博：《国内政治、国际关系与国际政治经济学研究》,载《世界经济与政治》,2006年第2期,第69页
101 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89页。
102 李巍：《国际政治经济学的演进逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》,2009年第10期,第77页。
103 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.881-911.
104 田野：《国际制度对国内政治的影响机制——来自理性选择制度主义的解释》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第7页。
105 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第93页。
106 Daniel W. Drezner, "Introduction; The Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions," in Daniel W. Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:the Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions, Michigan:the University of Michigan Press,2003, p.9.需要指出的是,全球化对各国的影响是不平衡的。拥有广阔的国内市场和强大的安全力量的国家对全球市场变动的脆弱性较小,而欠发达国家由于缺乏独立的资源来应对全球化的冲击,因此更倾向于寻求国际组织的支持。
107 Andrew Moravcsik, "Introduction:Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Relations", in Peter Evans, Harold Jacobson and Robert Putnam, eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.30.
108 Helen Milner, "Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics:Research Frontiers," in Helen Milner and Andrew Moravcsik, eds., Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009, pp.4-5.
109 Lisa L. Martin and Beth A. Simmons, "Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions," International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, pp.747-749.
110 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第95页。
111 国际上致力于这方面研究的学者主要有彼得·卡赞斯坦(Peter J. Katzenstein),查尔斯·蒂(Charles Tilly)、彼得·霍尔(Peter A. Hall)、罗伯特·普特南(Robert D. Putnam)、彼得·古雷维奇(Peter Gourevitch)、罗纳德·罗戈夫斯基(Ronald Rogowsky)、罗伯特·基欧汉(Robert O. Keohane)、海伦·米尔纳(Helen Milner)、乔安妮·高娃(Joanne Gowa)贝思·西蒙斯(Beth Simmons)、利萨·马丁(Lisa L. Martin)迈克尔·西斯考克斯((Michael J. Hiscox)等。
112 可参见Peter Gourevitch, "Domestic Politics and International Relations". Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, Handbook of International Relations, London:Sage Publications,2002, p.321. Jeffry A. Frieden, and Lisa L. Martin, "International Political Economy: Global and Domestic Interactions", Ira Katznelson, and Helen V. Milner, eds., Political Science: the State of the Discipline, New York:W. W. Norton &Company, Inc.,2002, p.120.
113 [美]非利普斯·夏夫利著：《政治科学研究方法》(第六版),新知译,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第18页。
114 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第94页。
115 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.20.
116 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic
Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, pp.454.
117 李巍：《制度变迁与美国国际经济政策》,上海：上海人民出版社2010年版,第63页。
118 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》,载《美国研究》2003年第4期,第117页。
119 Pamela S. Chasek, "U.S. Policy in the UN Environmental Area:Powerful Laggard or Constructive Leader?" International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, Vol.7, No.4,2007, p.366.
120 Glen Sussman, "The USA and Global Environmental Policy:Domestic Constraints on Effective Leadership," International Political Science Review, Vol.25, No.4,2004, pp.349-369.
121 李志永,张月英：《国际制度的国内影响》，载《国际关系学学报》2010年第2期，第8-9页。
1:2 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.901-902.
123 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, p.455. 124 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.23-25.
125 有关国内结构类型与功能的详细论述，参见林民旺、朱立群：《国际规范的国内化化：国内结构的影响及传播机制》，载《当代亚太》，20ll年第1期，第136-160页。
126 Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Ideas do not Float Freely:Transnational Coalitions, Domestic Structures, and the End of the Cold War", International Organization, Vol.48, No.2 (Spring, 1994), p.187.
127 James Rosenau, "Toward the Study of National2International Linkage", in James Rosenau ed., Linkage Politics, New York:The Free Press,1969, p.45.
128 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》，载《美国研究》2003年第4期，第120页。
129 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》，载《美国研究》2003年第4 期，第121页。
130 参见Joseph S. Nye, Jr., "Nuclear leaning and U.S-Soviet Security Regimes", International Organization, Vol.41, No.3,1987, pp.371-402; Ethan A. Nadelmann, "Global Prohibition Regimes:The Evolution of Norms in International Society", International Organization, Vol.44, No.4,1990, pp.479-526; John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior: Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.819-855.
131 参见Martha Finnemore. National Interests in International Society, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1996. Martha Finnemore, "International Organizations as Teachers of Norms:The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and Science Policy", International Organization, Vol.47, No.4 (Autumn,1993), pp.565-597.
132 参见 Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy:Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, pp.300-302.黄河：《跨国公司与当代国际关系》，上海：上海人民出版社2008年版，第六章。
Joseph S. Nye, Jr., "Nuclear leaning and U.S-Soviet Security Regimes", International Organization, Vol.41, No.3,1987, pp.371-402; John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior:Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.819-855; Oran R. Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1989.
134 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, pp.451-478.
135 Herbert C. Kelman, "Compliance, Identification, and Internalization:Three Processes of Attitude Change", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.2, No.l, Studies on Attitudes and Communication (Mar.,1958), p.53.
136 Ernest Q. Campbell, "The Internalization of Moral Norms", Sociometry, Vol.27, No.4,1964, p.392.
137 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,前言第6页。
138 唐永胜、徐弃郁：《寻求复杂的平衡：国际安全机制与主权国家的参与》,北京：世界知识出版社2004年版,第32-40页。
139 Andrew P. Cortell, James W. Davis, J r, "Understanding the Domestic Impact of International Norms:A Research Agenda", International Studies Review, Vol.2, No.1 (Spring,2000), pp.70-72.
140 于宏源：《国际制度与政府决策转型》,载《国际政治科学》2007年第1期,第37页。
141 Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy Making: Broading Perspectives and Policies But Only to a Point," in David Lampton, eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.236.
142 李志永,张月英：《国际制度的国内影响》,载《国际关系学院学报》2010年第2期,第10页。
143 Frederick Schauer, "The Politics and Incentives of Legal Transplantation", in Joseph S. Nye Jr., John D. Donahue eds., Governance in a Globalizing World, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2000, p.253.
144 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, Dec., 1998, p.809.
145 中华人民共和国外交部政策研究室编：《中国外交》,北京：世界知识出版社2003年版,第66-67页
146 参见梁长平：《从“强制遵约”到“自主遵约”：关于联邦德国对<不扩散核武器条约>的政策研究》,复旦大学2009年博士论文,未出版。
1 该组织的官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
2国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室、中国21世纪议程管理中心：《全球气候变化——人类面临的挑战》,北京：商务印书馆,2005年版,第16页。
3 朱炳海：《气象学词典》,上海：上海辞书出版社,1985年版,第180页。
4 朱炳海：《气象学词典》,上海：上海辞书出版社,1985年版,第123页。
5 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)], Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.368.
6 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
7 潘家华、庄贵阳、陈迎：《减缓气候变化的经济分析》,北京：气象出版社,2003年版,第21页。
8 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.234.
9 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.206.
10 英国学者雷特·哈丁(Garrett Hardin)在1968年即用“公地的悲剧”(The Tragedy of the Commons)揭示了环境的负外部性问题。哈丁认为,由于环境资源的非排他性和竞争性特点,使得人们有动机在他人获准使用该资源之前汲取它所能带来的好处。其结果是,与此社会最优情形相比,人们过度地使用了该资源。参见Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, Vol.168,1968, pp.1243-1248.
11 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.213.
12 Spencer R. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 2003, p.2-3.
Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.3.
Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.4.
Spencer R. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 2003, p.3-4.
Svante Arrhenius, "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground", Philosophical Magazine,41,1896, pp.237-276.
Svante Arrhenius, Words in the Making:the Evolution of the Universe, New York:Harper Press, 1908.
18 所谓“间冰期”是指两个冰期之间气候比较温l暖的时期。此时高纬度地区的大冰盖面积缩小,中、低纬度山岳冰川大规模后退,高山雪线大幅度升高,冰缘作用衰退,全球自然地理带向两极方向推移,世界海平面上升。
19 Thomas C. Chamberlin, "An Attempt to Frame a Working Hypothesis of the Cause of Glacial Periods on an Atmospheric Basis", Journal of Geology,7,1899, pp.545-561.
20 “水团”是指源地和形成机制相近,具有相对均匀的物理、化学和生物特征及大体一致的变化趋势,而与周围海水存在明显差异的宏大水体。绝大多数水团是一定时期内在海洋表面获得其初始特征(主要取决于水团源地的地理纬度、气候条件、海陆分布及该区域的环流特征)后,因混合或下沉、扩散而逐渐形成的。此后,水团特征因外界环境的改变而变化,终因动力或热力效应而离开表层,下沉到与其密度相当的水层。通过扩散及与周围海水不断混合,继而形成表层以下的各种水团。
21 Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge,1996, p.21.
22 William W. Kellogg, Mankind's Impact on Climate:the Evolution of Awareness, Climatic Change, Vol10, No.2,1987, p.116.
23 Revelle, R. and Suess, H. E., "Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades", Tellus 9,1957, pp.18-27.
24 ppm (parts per million)是体积浓度表法,意指百分之一。v址指体积,ppmv是指一百万体积中含1体积。
23 Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.8.
26 PSAC, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment, Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President's Science Advisory Committee, The White House, Washington, D. C.1965.
27 National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Atmospheric Sciences Panel on Weather and Climate Modification, Weather and Climate Modification:Problems and Prospects,2 Vols. Washington, D.C.:National Academy of Sciences,1966, vol.1, p.10.
28 Hubert H. Lamb, "Climatic Fluctuations", in General Climatology, H. Flohn ed., Amesterdam Elsevier,1969, p.178.
29 参见世界气象组织历年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate), http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/statement/wmostatement_en.html2010年3月18日登录。
30 “全球气候变暖导致极端高温出现频率增加”,中国气象网,http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/article/20091218/167407_l.shtml2010年3月18日登录。
31 John T. Hardy, Climate Change:Causes, Effects and Solutions, New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2003, pp.48-49.
32 姜冬梅、张孟衡、陆根法主编：《应对气候变化》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007年版,第5页。
33 当某地的天气、气候出现不容易发生的“异常”现象,或者说当某地的天气、气候严重偏离其平均状态时,即意味着发生“极端事件”。世界气象组织规定,如果某个(些)气候要素的时、日、月、年值达到25年以上一遇,或都与其相应的30年平均值的“差”超过了一倍均方差时,这个(些)气候要素值就属于“异常”气候值。出现“异常”气候值的事件就是“气候极端事件”。干旱、洪涝、高温热浪和低温冷害等事件都可以以看成极端气候事件。气候极端事件分为中效尺度和大尺度两类,前都特点为持续时间短、破坏力强;后者特点为覆盖面积广、持续时间长,可能给大范围地区或全球社会经济带来影响。参见：姜冬梅、张孟衡、陆根法主编：《应对气候变化》,北京：中国环境科学学出版社,2007年版,第6页。
34 骆高远,冯利华：《气候变化及其影响究》,北京：中国科学技术出版社,2004年版,第页。
35 Bruce E. Johansen, Global warming in the 21st Century (Volume 1), London:PraegerPublishers,2006,p.195.
36 参见世界气象组织2009年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2008). http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/WMO1039_EN_web.pdf,2010年3月19日登录。
37 参见世界气象组织2010年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2009), http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/showcase/documents/1055_en.pdf,2010年5月20日登陆。
38 国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室、中国21世纪议程管理中心：《全球气候变化—人类面临的挑战》,北京：商务印书馆,2005年版,第71页。
39 刘俊主编：《关注全球气候变化》,北京：军事科学出版社,2009年版,第44页。
40 [美]罗斯·格尔布斯潘：《炎热的地球：气候危机,掩盖真相还是寻求对策》,戴星翼、张真、程远译,上海：上海译文出版社,2001年版,第133-134页。
41 Pim Martens, Jan Rotmans eds., Climate Change:an Integrated Perspective, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999, p.223.
42 John T. Hardy, Climate Change:Causes, Effects and Solutions, New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd,2003, pp.120-121.
43 Pim Martens, Jan Rotmans eds., Climate Change:an Integrated Perspective, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999, p.217.
44 Marc A. Levy, "Is t he Environment a National Security Issue?" International Security, Fall 1995,p.54.
45 Tony Blair,'Prime Minister's Speech on Sustainble Development",24 February 2003, http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.numberl0.gov.uk/Page3073 46 John Houghton, "Global warming is now a weapon of mass destruction", Guardian,28 July 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/jul/28/environment.greenpolitics
47 Chris Buckley, "EU makes climate change centre of foreign policy", Reuters,18 January 2007, http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/01/18/idUSPEK343678 and "In warmer world, threat of cold war", International Herald Tribune,24 October 2007, p.l.另外,欧盟委员会2008年发布的报告再次声称气候变化是一个严重的政治和安全问题,并且“直接威胁到了欧盟的利益”。参见European Council,'Climate Change and International Security', European Council S113/08,14 March 2008, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/reports/99387.pdf.
48 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
49 The CAN Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,2007, available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
30 Alan Dupont, East Asia Imperilled:Transnational Challenges to Security, Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.117.
51 Alan Dupont, "The Strategic Implications of Climate Change", Survival, Vol.50, No.3, June-July 2008, p.33.
52 United Nations Environment Programme, Sudan:Post-conflict Environment Assessment, Nairobi:UNEP,2007, p.75. http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf有关苏丹达尔富尔地区的“环境冲突”事件,可参见Jeffrey Mazo, Climate Conflict:How Global Warming Threatens Security and What to Do about It, New York:Routledge,2010, pp.73-86; Christian Webersik, Climate Change and Security:A Gathering Storm of Global Challenges, Santa Barbara, California:Praeger,2010, pp.39-42.
53 International Energy Agency,'World Energy Outlook 2007:Executive Summary', p.4, available at http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2007.asp; see also Energy Task Force, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Canberra:Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet,2006, http://www.dpmc.gov.au/publications/energy_future/.
54 Santiago Olmos, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change:Concepts, Issues, Assessment Methods, Foundation Paper, Climate Change Knowledge Network, July 2001, pp.8-9. http://www.iisd.org/cckn/pdf/va_foundation_final.pdf
55 IPCC特别列举了三种引起环境移民/难民产生的“气候因素”：干旱事件、热带旋风(飓风和台风)、海平面上升。参见"1PCC 2007:Summary for Policymakers," in Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva:IPCC,2007, p.4, 12.
56 Paul J. Smith, "Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response", Orbis, Fall 2007, p.618.
57 在20世纪70年代早期,关于气候问题的争论不只是局限于由二氧化碳导致的全球变暖的可能性。事实上,当时许多科学家止在探究全球变冷的可能性。从1945年到1970年间,全球平均气温下降,这使许多科学家担心新的冰川时代的来临。参见Ian H. Rowland, The Politics of Global Atmospheric Change, Manchester:Manchester University Press,1994, pp.66-67.
58 Ian H. Rowland, The Politics of Global Atmospheric Change, Manchester:Manchester University Press,1994, p.106.
59 The South Commission, The Challenge of the South, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1990, p.183.
John Horel, Jack Geisler, Global Environmental Change:An Atmospheric Perspective, New York:John Wiley & Sons,1997, p.95.
61 John Horel, Jack Geisler, Global Environmental Change:An Atmospheric Perspective, New York:John Wiley & Sons,1997, p.123.
62 参见IPCC官方网站介绍, http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm; 其中文介始参 见:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-faq/ipcc-introduction-ch.pdf
63 Hammond, T.H., "Agenda Control, Organization Structure and Bureaucratic Politics" American Journal of Political Science, Vol.30, No.379,1986, pp.379-420.
¨本部分参见IPCC官方网站组织结构中文版介绍,http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-faq/ipcc-who-is-who-ch.pdf
65 截至2010年3月22日,IPCC主席团成员来源国家分别为印度、塞拉利昂、比利时、韩国、瑞士、美国、德国、日本、中国、阿根廷、古巴、巴西(2位)、马里、摩洛哥、马达加斯加、苏丹、伊朗、马尔代夫、加拿大、秘鲁、马来西亚、澳大利亚、意大利、新西兰、西班牙、英国、法国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。参见IPCC官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_bureau.htm
66 第一份《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》于1994年编写并于1996年作了修订。目前最新的一期的《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》是2006年经过修订后的版本。
67 第一次报告主要包括三个部分,分别为IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990; IPCC, Climate Change and Impact, Cambridge:Cambridge University Pres,1990; IPCC, Climate change:the IPCC response strategies, Washington, D.C.:Island Press,1991.
68 IPCC, Climate Change 1992:The Supplement Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Honghton J T, Callander BA, Varney SK eds. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992; IPCC, Climate Change 1992:The supplementary report to the IPCC impacts assessment, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992.
69 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1996; IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996; IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
70 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
71 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,2007; IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007; IPCC, Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007:Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group Ⅲ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,2007; 其结合报告版本参见IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment report synthesis_report.htm
72 IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990, p.365.
73 参见IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990; IPCC, Climate Change and Impact, Cambridge:Cambridge University Pres,1990; IPCC, Climate change:the IPCC response strategies, Washington, D.C.:Island Press,1991.
74 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.572.
75 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
76 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
77 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, pp.153-163.
78 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.228.
79 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, pp.306-347.
80 参见IPCC, Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.5.
81 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_cn.pdf, p.2.
82 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_cn.pdf, p.5.
83 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007, pp.8-22. 84 Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review:Final Report, Cambtidge:Cambridge University Press,2008该书的中文版已经于2009年12月出版。参见[澳大利亚]郜若素：《郜若素气候变化报告》,张征译,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009年版。
85 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf The CAN Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,2007, available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
86 Stern N, The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,2006.
87 该 报告的获得地址,http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/
88 参见IPCC官方网站http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization procedures.htm,
"principles governing the IPCC work"和"Procedures for the Preparation, Review, Acceptance, Adoption, Approval and Publication of IPCC Reports" 部分。Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf
89 Dr. Keith, Shine of Reading University, Reuters,20 Dec1995.转引自庄贵阳、朱仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社2009年版,第243页。
90 UN Climate Summary Designed to Dupe, Critics Say", Kevin Mooney, CNSNews.com Staff Writer, February 02,2007, available at: http://globalwarminghoax.wordpress.com/2007/02/02/un-climate-summary-designed-to-dupe-criti cs-sav/
91 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.493.
92 “气候门”(Climate Gate)是指2009年11月多位世界顶级气候学家的邮件和文件被黑客公开的事件。邮件和文件显示,一些科学家在操纵数据,伪造科学流程来支持他们有关气候变化的说法。“气候门”事件一度引起人们对全球气候变暖的质疑。
93[美]詹姆斯·布坎南：《民主过程中的财政》,唐寿宁译,上海：上海三联书店1992年版,第13页。
94 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第4页。
95 蔡拓等：《全球问题与当代国际关系》,天津：天津人民出版社2002年版,第2页。需要 特别提及的是,国内学者苏长和指出,全球公共问题既可能是公害问题.如生态危机和环境污染等；也可能是公益问题,如和平的维持和全球福利的提高等。参见：苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第5页。本文研究的气候变化问题主要是一个公害问题。
96 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第5页。
97 俞可平主编：《全球化：全球治理》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第13页。
98[英]戴维·赫尔德等：《全球大变革：全球化时代的政治、经济与文化》,杨雪冬等译,北京：社会科学文献出版社2001年版,第70页。
99 Jacques Ellul, "Politicization and Political Solutions", in The Politicization of Society by Kenneth S. Templeton J r, Indianapolis:Liberty Press,1979, p.220.
100 [英]安德鲁·海伍德：《政治学核心概念》,吴勇译,天当：天津人民出版社,2008年版,第39页。
101 Hans Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, New York:Alfred Knopf,1978, p.29.
102 Gene M. Lyons, David A. Baldwin, Donald W. McNemar, "The'Politicization'Issue in the UN Specialized Agencies", Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science, Vol.32, No.4, The Changing United Nations:Options for the United States (1977), pp.84-85.
103 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,"International Interdependence and Integration", in Handbook of Political Science, vol.8, ed., by Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson Polsby, Reading, Mass.:Addison-Wesley,1975, p.397
104 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.152.
105 Philop Shabecoff, "Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate," New York Times, June 24,1988,p.1; Bill McKibben, "Climate Change", Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb,2009, p.33.
106 Bill McKibben, The End of Nature, New York:Random House,1989, p.24.
107 Joe Barnett, "Security and Climate Change", Global Environmental Change, Vol.13, Issuel, April 2003, p.9.
108 Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge,1996, pp.35-40.
109 Norman J. Vig, Regina S. Axelrod. The Global Environment:Institutions, Law, and Policy, Washington, D. C.:CQ Press,1999, p.109.
110 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphl Series,1996, p.153.
111 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.163.
112 I. M. Mintzer, J.A. Leonard, Negotiating Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1994, p.86.
113 “哥本哈根学派”(Copenhagen School)这一术语首先是由比尔·马克斯威尼(BillMcSweeney)提出的,他认为前哥本哈根和平研究所出版了“多部与安全有关的著作,安全可被授予学派称号”。参见Bill McSweeney, "Identity and Security:Buzan and the Copenhagen School", Review of International Studies, Vol.22, No.2,1996, p.81.
114 朱宁：《安全与非安全化——哥本哈根学派安全研究》,载《世界经济与政治》,2003年第10期,第22页。
115 Barry Buzan, Ole Wμver and Jaap de Wilde, Security:A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder, Colo.:Lynne Rienner Publishers.,1998, p.26.
116 Barry Buzan, Ole Wμver and Jaap de Wilde, Security:A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder, Colo.:Lynne Rienner Publishers.,1998, p.26.
117 Security Council Holds First-Ever Debate on Impact of Climate Change", Security Council SC/9000, April 17,2007. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm
118 Hans Gunter Brauch, "Securitizing Climate Change", Paper Presented at the 50th ISA Annual Convention, New York,15-18 February,2008. http://www.afes-press.de/html/Brauch_ISA_NY_2.2.2009.pdf, pp.26-27.
119 [美]保罗·肯尼迪：《大国的兴衰——1500～2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突》,王保存等译、朱贵生校,北京：求实出版社1988年版,第213-324页。
120 “低碳经济”概念最早正式出现在2003年的英国能源白皮书《我们能源的未来——创建低碳经济》当中。参见DT(Department of Trade and Industry), Energy White Paper:Our Energy Future—Create a Low Carbon Economy, London:TSO,2003, Available at: http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file10719.pdf
121 这里的国际制度议价指的是自利团体之间为了处理集体行为问题而进行的协商,主要建立在利益取向的概念之上。参见Young Oran, "The Politics of International Regime Formation: Managing Natural Resources and the Environment," International Organization, Vol.43,1989, pp.331-356.
1 有关外交的诸多定义,参见Harold Nicolson, Diplomacy, London, Oxford:Oxford University Press, Third Edition,1963, p.5. R.P. Barston, Modern Diplomacy, New York:Addison Wesley Longman Inc, (second edition),1997, p.l. G. R. Berridge and Alan James, A Dictionary of Diplomacy, New York:Palgrave Publishers,2001, pp.62-63.金正昆：《现代外交学概论》,北京：中国人民大学出版社1999年,第6页。鲁毅等：《外交学概论》,北京：世界知识出版社,2004年,第5页。张历历：《外交决策》,北京：世界知识出版社,2007年,第43页。陈志敏等：《当代外交学》,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年,第5-6页。
2 David A. Wirth, "Climate Chaos", Foreign Policy, No.74 (Spring,1989), pp.3-22.
3 该研究所的网址：http://www.wupperinst.org/en/home/index.html
4 Hermann E. Ott, "Climate Change:An Important Foreign Policy Issue", International Affairs, Vol.77, No.2 (Apr.,2001), pp.295-296.
5 Andre Stochniol, Case Study for Innovation in Climate Change Diplomacy, paper presented in International Conference of Climate Change Diplomacy, Malta,7-8 February,2008. http://www.diplomacy.edu/conferences/ClimateChange/abstracts.asp
Paul Samuelson, "The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure", Review of Economics and Statistics, XXXVI, Nov.1954, pp.387-389.
7 Inge Kaul, Global Public Goods:International Cooperation in the 21stCentury, New York: Oxford University Press,1999, pp.509-510.
8 Inge Kaul, Global Public Goods:International Cooperation in the 21stCentury, New York: Oxford University Press,1999, p.13.
9 Daniel Bouille and Osvaldo Girardin, "Learning from the Argentine Voluntary Commitment", in Kevin A. Baumert, Odile Blanchard, Silvia Llosa, James Perkaus, eds., Building on the Kyoto Protocol:Options for Protecting the Climate, Washington:World Resources Institute,2002, p.135.
10 I. Kickbusch, "Global Health Governance:Some New Theoretical Considerations on the New Political Space", in K. Lee, ed., Globalization and Health, London:Palgrave,2003, p.192.
11 德国Ecofys公司的网站上列出了世界上主要能源、环境与气候变化研究机构的不完全汇总,参见该公司网址：http://www.fiacc.net/
12 参见该组织的官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
13 See IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf.
14 陆忠伟主编：《非传统安全论》,北京：时事出版社,2003年版,第20页。
15 Richard Ullman, "Redefining Security", International Security, Vol.8, No.1,1983, p.129.
Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008, pp.217-220.
" Smith S, Baylis J., The Globalization of World Politics. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1997 p.2.
18 Raymond Aron, The Industrial Society:Three Essays on Ideology and Development, New York: Praeger Press,1967, p.7.
David Fidler, "The Globalization of Public Health:Emerging Infectious Diseases and International Relations," Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, Vol.15, No.11,1997, p.14.
20 参见Gordon R. Walker, Mark A. Fox, "Globalization:An Analytical Framework", Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, Vol.3, No.2,1996.21 [美j布鲁斯·琼斯等著,秦亚青等译：《权力与责任：构建跨国威胁时代的国际秋序》,北京：世界知识出版社,2009年版,第76页。
22 [德]米夏埃尔·齐恩：《黑、红、绿、棕对非民族国家化的反应方式》,载乌·贝克、哈贝马斯等著,王学东等译：《全球化与政治》,北京：中央编译出版社,2000年版,第162页。
23 The Commission on Global Governance, Our Global Neighborhood:the report of the Commission on Global Governance, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, pp.2-3.
24 俞可平主编：《全球化：全球治理》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第13页。
25 [美]丹尼斯·米都斯等著,李宝恒译：《增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告》,长春：吉林人民出版社,1997年版。
26 World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, New York: Oxford University Press,1987.
See Stern N, The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,2006.
Pamela S. Chasek, Earth Negotiation:Analyzing Thirty Years of Environmental Diplomacy, Washington:United National University Press,2001, p.125.
29 Pamela S. Chasek, Earth Negotiation:Analvzing Thirty Years of Environmental Diplomacy, Washington:United National University Press,2001, p.125.
30 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
31 参见《京都议定书》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpchinese.pdf
32 参见《京都议定书》文本附件B。
33 UNFCCC, "Total aggregate greenhouse gas emissions of individual Annex I Parties,1990-2006 (excluding LULUCF)", http://unfccc.int/files/inc/graphics/image/gif/total_excluding_2008.gif
34 联合国开发计划署：“富国没有尽到帮助穷国的责任”,《新华社中文新闻》,2007年12月11日。
35 Duncan Brack, Michael Grubb and Craig Windram, International Trade and Climate Change Policies, London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,2000, p.48.
36 王俊：《从制度设想到贸易政策：美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第78页。有关“碳关税”相关概念的辨析,参见黄文旭：《碳关税相关概念辨析》,载《岭南学刊》,2011年第1期,第70-75页。
37 Katrin Bennhold, "France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax," New York Times, Feb. 1,2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/europe/01climate.html
38 Katrin Bennhold, "France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax," New York Times, Feb. 1,2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/europe/01climate.html
39 例如,2007年参议院提出的《低碳经济法案》(Low Carbon Economy Act, S1766)、《美国气候安全法案》(Lieberman-Warner, America's Climate Security Act, S2191)以及2009年众议院提出的《美国清洁能源与安全法》(American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, H. R.2454)等法案都包含有对第三国产品征税的建议。
40 本文的新能源既包括风能、太阳能、氢能等可再生能源,也包括铀矿、氦-3和清洁煤等能源。
41 于宏源：《权力转移中的能源链及其挑战》,载《世界经济研究》,2008年第2期,第29-34页。
42 [美]曼瑟尔·奥尔森著,陈郁等译：《集体行动的逻辑》,上海：上海人民出版社,1995年,第2页。
43 俞正樑、陈玉刚等：《21世纪全球政治范式》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2005年,第178页：俞正樑、陈玉刚：《全球共治理论初探》,载《世界经济与政治》,2005年第2期,第8-15页。
44 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/rcsource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
45 [法]亚历山大·基斯：《国际环境法》,张若思北京：法律出版社2000 年版,第109页。
46 王曦：《论现代国际法中的“对一切”义务概念》,载王曦主编：《国际环境法与比较境法评论》,北京：法律出版社2002年版,第95页。
47 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本“序”部分：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
48 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本。
49 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第51页。
50 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本。
51 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》正文第11条资金机制第1款的规定。
52 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京:中国法制出版社2007年版,第55页。有关全球环境基金与中国环保政策协调关系的研究,参见于宏源：《全球环境基金与中国环境外交》,载《当代亚太》2006年第2期,第38-43页。
53 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》。54 Kenneth W. Abbott and Duncan Snidal, "Hard and Soft Law in International Governance,' International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,2000, p.421.
R. Bernhardt ed., Encyclopedia of Public International Law, Instalment 7, Netherland:Elscvier Science Publishers B. V.,1984, p.62.
56 Kenneth W. Abbott and Duncan Snidal, "Hard and Soft Law in International Governance," International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,2000, pp.422-455.
57 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第58页。
58 Christine Chinkin, "International Environmental Law in Evolution", in Tim Jewell and Jenny
Steele eds., Law in Environmental Decision-Making:National, European and International Perspective, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.245.
59 Tom Athanaslou and Paul Baer, Dead Heat:Global Justice and Global Warming, New York: Seven Stories Press,2002.
60 郭冬梅：《应对气候变化法律制度研究》,北京：法律出版社2010年版,第69页。
61 参见《京都议定书》文本。
62 参见《京都议定书》文本。
63 欧盟成员国作为一个整体参与减排行动。欧盟通过内部谈判将议定书规定的8%的减排任务分解到各成员国。如德国承诺减排21%、英国减排12.5%、丹麦减排21%、荷兰减排6%,而希腊、葡萄牙的排放量增长为25%和27%,爱尔兰也被允许增长13%的排放量。欧洲理事会环境部长级会议已于1998年7月对各成员国的减排任务做出了决定。参见M.Wenning,Climate Change:The Road to Ratification and Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Presented on the 663ed Wiston Park Conference, Wilton Park, May 2002, pp.13-17. David Pocklington, "European Emissions Trading:The Business Perspective", European Environmental Law Review, July 2002, p.210. Michael Bothe, "Tradable Emission Certificates as a Mechanism for National Compliance under the UNFCCC", in Tao Zhenhua and Rudiger Wolfrum eds., Implementing International Environmental Law in Germany and China, The Hague;Boston:Kluwer Law International,2001, p.128.
64 参见《京都议定书》文本。
65 参见《京都议定书》第12条。其中,“附件一所列缔约方”指《公约》附件一所列缔约方,包括可能作出的修正或指根据《公约》第四条第2款(g)项作出通过的缔约方。《公约》附件一所包括的缔约方共37个,由1992年时的经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员国、欧盟以及11个经济转型国家组成。相应地,非附件一缔约方是指未列入附件一的所有其他缔约方。
66 庄贵阳：《从公平与效率原则看清洁发展机制及其实施前景》,载《世界经济与政治》,2001年第2期,第64页。
67 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.7.
68 Joanna Depledge, "From Kyoto to Buenos Aires and Beyond", in W. Bradnee Chambers ed., Inter-linkages:The Kyoto Protocol and the International Trade and Investment Regimes, Tokyo: The United Nations University Press,2001, p.12.
69 鲁传一,刘德顺：《减缓全球气候变化的京都机制的经济学分析》,载《世界经济》,2002年第8期,第73页。
70 碳汇一般是指从空气中清除二氧化碳的过程、活动、机制。它主要是指森林吸收并储存二氧化碳的多少,或者说是森林吸收储存二氧化碳的能力。与此相关,森林碳汇是指森林植物吸收大气中的二氧化碳并将其固定在植被或土壤中,从而减少该气体在大气中的浓度。森林是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库,在降低大气中温室气体浓度、减缓全球气候变暖中,具有十分重要的独特作用。与碳汇相对应的概念是碳源,它是指自然界中向大气释放碳的母体。
71 《京都议定书》文本。
72 Abram Chayes, Antonia Handler Chayes, and Ronald B. Mitchell, "Managing Compliance:A Comparative Perspective", in Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson ed, Engaging Countries: Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Boston:MIT Press,1998, p.39.
73 [法]亚历山大·基斯：《国际环境法》,张若思译,北京：法律出版社2000年版,第223 页。
74 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第70-71页。
75 杜群：“气候变化的国际法发展：《<联合国气候变化框架公约>京都议定书》述评”,载韩德培主编,《环境资源法论丛》(第3卷),北京：法律出版社2003年版,第256-257页。
76 杜群：“气候变化的国际法发展：《<联合国气候变化框架公约)京都义定书》述评”,载韩德培主编,《环境资源法论丛》(第3卷),北京：法律出版社2003年版,第257页。
77 三重目标具体是①为温室气体减排提供国际法律基础和保障：②附件一缔约国在2008到2012年期间,将温室气体的总排放量在1990年的基础上削减5.2%；③通过附件缔约国率先减排的示范作用,说服发展中国家参与全球减排行行动。参见Benito Muller, "Does US Ratification Really Matter?", Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2000, available at: http://associnst.ox.ac.uk/energy/13.html
78 陈迎：《(京都议定书>的前途及其国际经济和政治影响》,载《世界经济与政治》,2001年第6期,第42页。
79 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.33. 80 Brett Simpson, "Participation of Developing Countries in a Climate Change Convention Protocol," Asia Pacific Journal of Environmental Law, Vol.7, Issue 1,2002, p.44.
81 经济合作与发展组织：《国际经济手段和气候变化》,曹东等译,北京：中国环境科学出版社1996年版,第100页。
82参见王洛林：《2002-2003年：世界经济形势分析与预测》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版。
83 Michael Grubb, Christiaan Vrolijk and Duncan Brack, The Kyoto Protocol:A Guide and Assessment, London:The Royal Institute of International Affairs & Earth-scan Publication Ltd, 1999, p.33.
84 参见“巴厘路线图”文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/chi/06a01c.pdf#page=3
85 “中到专家解渎‘巴厘路线图’”,http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2007-12/15/content_9387694.htm,中国网,2007-12-15。
86 参见《哥本哈根协议》文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/chi/11a01c.pdf
87 “凝聚共识,构筑新的起点——中国气候局局长郑国国光解读《哥本哈根协议》”,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2009-12/22/content_1494124.htm,中国政府网,2009-12-22。
88 参见《坎昆协议》文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/chi/07a01c.pdf#page=2
89 参见United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Press Release,11 December 2010.http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/pr 20 101211_copl6_closing.pdf
90 Alexander Kiss, Dinah Shelton, International Environmental Law, New York:Transnationa Publishers, Inc.,2000, p.39.
Rajendra Ramlogan, The Developing World and the Environment, Washington:University Press of America Inc.,2004, p.247.
92 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第291页。
93 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第292页。
94 Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games" International Organization, Vol.42, No.3 (Summer 1988), pp.427-460.或者参见薄组：《双层次博弈理论：内在逻辑及其评价》,载《现代国际关系》,2003年第6期,第54-60页。
95 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第294页。
96 Lawrence E. Susskind, Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating More Effective Global Agreements, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1994, pp.30-37.
97 郭冬梅：《应对气候变化法律制度研究》,北京：法律出版社2010年版,第86-87页。
98 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第4条第2款(a)项的规定。
99 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第4条第2款(b)项的规定。
100 [美]希拉里·弗伦奇著：《消失的边界》,李丹译,上海：上海译文出版社2002年版,第120-123页。
101 参见《京都议定书》第3条第1款的规定。
102 [美]希拉里·弗伦奇：《消火的边界》,李丹译,上海：上海译文出版社2002年版,第121页。
103 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.3.
104 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第11条第3款(d)项的规定。
105 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第11条第5款的规定。
106 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第61页。
107 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第107页。
108 Izrael, Yu et al., "Mitigation Analysis for Energy System and Forestry Sector of the Russian Federation", in Global Climate Change Mitigation Assessment:Results for 14 Transitioning and Developing Countries, Washington, D.C.:US-Country Studies Program, August 1997, p.139.
109 Chris Rolfe, "Undermining the Kyoto Protocol:Will Weaknesses and Loopholes in the Kyoto Protocol Negate Its Environmental Effectiveness?" http://wcel.org/sites/default/files/Undermining%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol-%20Will%20weak nesses%20and%201oopholes%20in%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20negate%20its%20environ mental%20effectiveness.pdf
110 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.30.
111 Sangmin Shim, "Korea's Leading Role in Joining the Kyoto Protocol with the Flexibility Mechanism as'Side-Payments'", The Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Issue2,2003, p.217.
112 陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社 2008年版,第73页。
113 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第76-77页。
114 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第106页。
115 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第7条第2款以及该款(e)项的规定。
116 参见《京都议定书》第18条的规定。
117 Michael Bothe, "Tradable Emission Certificates as a Mechanism for National Compliance under the UNFCCC", in Tao Zhenhua and Rudiger Wolfrum eds., Implementing International Environmental Law in Germany and China, The Hague;Boston:Kluwer Law International,2001, p.127.
118 Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discard in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,2005, P.240.
119 Jack Donnelly, "International Human Rights:A Regime Analysis", International Organization, Vol.40, No.3, Summer 1986, p.638.
120 [美]德沃金著：《法律帝国》,李常青译,北京：中国大百科全书出版社1996年版,第325页。
121 [德]沃尔夫·刚格拉夫·魏智通主编：《国际法》,吴越等泽,北京：法律出版社2002年版,第572页。
122 赵汀阳：《博弈问题的哲学分析》,载《读书》2003年第2期,第80-81页。
123 H. E. Ott, et al, South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse:A proposal for an adequate and equitable global climate agreement, Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH Postfach, May 2004, http://www.wupperinst.org/
124 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第7页。
125 参见潘家华：《后京都国际所候博定的的谈判趋势与对策思考》,载《气候变化研究进展》.2005年第1期,第11页。
126 庄贤阳：《哥本哈根气候博弈与中国角色的再认识》,载《外交评论》,2009年第6期,第16页。
127 Fabian Wagner and Markus Amann, "Analysis of the Proposals for GHG Reductions in 2020 Made by UNFCCC Annex I Countries by Mid-August 2009", International Institute for Applied System Analysis, September 19,2009.
128 Kelly Levin, "Comparison of 2020 Targets and Ranges Pledged by Developed Countries" World Resources Institute, December 2009, http://www.wri.org/publications
129 See Copenhagen Accord, available at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/107.pdf
130 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
131 Taryn Fransen, "Summary of GHG Reduction Pledges Put Forward by Developing Countries", World Resources Institute, December 9,2009, http://pdf.wri.org/summary_of_non_annexl_pledges_2009-12.pdf
1 这18个城市为鞍山、北京、长春、成都、重庆、贵阳、哈尔滨、济南、昆明、兰州、南吕、上海、沈阳、太原、天津、武汉、郑州和淄博。参见The World Bank, World development indicators 2010, pp.206-207. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/defaultA/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2010/04/27/000333 037_20100427005935/Rendered/PDF/542510PUB0WDI0101Official0Use0Onlyl.pdf
2 国家环保总局中国环境规划院课题组：《2020年中国能源与环境面临的挑战与对策》,载于《经济参考报》2005年11月10日。
3 WHO (World Health Organization), Environmental Health Country Profile-China, WHO: Geneva,2004.
4 张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》1998年第11期,第12-13页。
5 参见联合国环境规划署(UNEP)官方网站《联合国人类环境宣言》第5条,http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/default.asp?DocumentID=97&ArticleID=1503&1=e n
6 高宇声主编：《<环境保护>十年选编》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1985年版,第4页。
7 丁金光：《中国环境外交的开端：成就与问题》,载《甘肃社会科学》,2007年第5期,第170页；张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》1998年第11期,第13页。
8 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1990》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1990年版,第6页。
9 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1990》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1990年版,第7-8页。
10 王之佳：《中国环境外交》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1999年版,第222页。
11 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处编：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》(二),北京：中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第72页。
12 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第108-109页。
13 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第21页。
14 该机构的官方网址：http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/node_7039793.htm
15 张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》,1998年第11期,第14页。
16 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1993》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1993年版,第43页。
17 孟浪编著：《环境保护事典》,长沙：湖南大学出版社1999年版,第827页。
18 丁金光：《国际环境外交》,北京：中国社会科学出版社2007年版,第231页。
19 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1994》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1994年版,第380-384页。
20《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1995》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第5页。
21参见《中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告》编写组：《中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告》,北京：中国环境科学出版社2002年版,第46-47页。
22《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1996》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社1996年版,第233页。
23 《江泽民再次发表讲话强调,科技和环保合作事关亚太未来》,载《中国青年报》,1996年11月26日。24 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1998》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社1998
年版,第308页。
25 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue:China's Environment (Dec.,1998), pp.814-815.
26 参见《中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会报告》,2007年10月25日。
27 尤其是2005年以来,中国参加的环境会议、签署的环境协议和相关的交流活动每年都在40次以上。参见《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴》(2006-2010年份),北京： 中国环境年鉴出版社2006-2010年版,国际交流与合作部分。
28 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2003》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2003年版,第291页。
29 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2006》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2006年版,第294页。
30 国务院新闻办公室：《中国的环境保护(1996-2005)》,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2006-06/05/content_4646674_5.htm,2010年11月17日登陆。
31 朱新光、齐峰：《浅析中国——东盟气候合作》,载《国际问题研究》,2009年第2期,第4页。
32 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2008》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2008年版,第396页。
33 中国国家环保总局,《国际合作》,http:PPwww.zhb.gov. cnPeicP65161786920051968Pindex.shtml,2005-10-25。
34 王绍武,赵宗慈,唐国利：《中国的气候变暖》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第1页。
35 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第12页。
36 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第3页。
37 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第3-4页。
38 Eun-Shik Kim, Dong Kyun Park, Xueyong Zhao, Sun Kee Hong, Kang Suk Koh, Min Hwan Shu and Young Sun Kim, "Sustainable management of grassland ecosystems for controlling Asian dusts and desertification in Asian continent and a suggestion of eco-village study in China", Ecological Research 21:6, Nov.2006, pp.907-911.
39 中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第17-18页。
40 中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第17页。
41 Fan Daidu and Li Congxian, "Complexities of China's coast in response to climate change", Advances in Climate Change Research 2,2006, pp.54-58; C. X. Li, D. D. Fan, B. Deng and D. J. Wang, "Some problems of vulnerability assessment in the coastal zone of China", in N. Mimura and H. Yokoki, eds, Global change and Asian Pacific coasts, Proceedings of APN/SURVAS/LOICZ joint conference on "Coastal impacts of climate change and adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region", Kobe, Japan,14-16 Nov.2000, pp.49-56.
42 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第18页。《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第295页。
43 World Health Organization, Climate change and human health:risks and responses, Geneva: WHO,2003. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf
44 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第19页。
45 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学国版社2007年版,第4页。
46 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第16-17页。
47刘玲、沙奕卓、白玉明：《中国主要农业气象灾害区域分布与减灾对策》,载《自然灾害学学报》,2003年第2期,第92-97页。
48 成福云：《干旱灾害对21世纪初我国农业发展的影响探讨》,载《水利发展研究》,2002年第10期,第31-33页。
49 居煇等著：《气候变化与中国粮食安全》,北京：学苑出版社2008年版,第26-27页。
50 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,序言第2页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
51 Abigail Jones, Vinca Lafleur, and Nigel Purvis, "Double Jeopardy:Climate Crisis Means for the Poor", in Lael Brainard, Abigail Jones, and Nigel Purvis eds., Climate Change and Global Poverty, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2009, p.10.
52 参见乐施会中国官方网站：http.//www.oxfam.org.cn/down_s.php?id=89
53 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,第18页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
54 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,第18页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
55 左书华、李蓓：《近20年中国海洋灾害特征、危害及防治对策》,载《气象与减灾研究》,2008年第4期,第28-33页。
56 参见《2008年中国国防白皮书》,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-01/20/content_10688192.htm
57 “中国成立军队气候变化专家委员会”,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-11/07/content_10323151.htm,2008年11月07日。
58 吴青柏、程国栋、马巍：《多年冻土变化对青藏铁路工程的影响》,载《中国科学》D辑,2003年总第33期,第115-122页。
59 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第153页。
60 Jin Hunjun, et al., "Chinese Grocryology at the Turn of the Twentieth Century", Permafrost Periglacial Processes,2000,11(1), pp.23-33.
61 吴青柏等：《青藏高原多年冻土监测及近期变化》,载《气候变化研究进展》,2005年第1期,第26-28页。
62 参见张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第174-177页。
63 Joanna I. Lewis, "Climate change and security:examining China's challenges in a warming world", International Affairs,85:6 (2009), pp.1203-1205.
64 王铁崖主编：《国际法》,北京：法律出版社1984年版,第67页。
65 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第150页。
Bayer J. Linnerooth, "Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness", in Ference L. Toth (ed), Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change, London:Earthscan,1999, p.59.
67 参见中国国家统计局：《中国统计年鉴2010》,
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexch.htm
68 参见Walt W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1960.,
69 参见潘家华：《我国能源发展的战略误区与选择》,载《中国能源》,2009年第7期,第16页。中国国家人口和计划生育委员会：《人口“十一五”规划和2020年发展思路》,参见中国国家人口和计划生育委员会官方网站：http://www.chinapop.gov.cn/tzgg/200806/P020080619552889682813.doc。
70 World Energy Outlook 2010, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_es_chinese.pdfo
71 参见BP Statistical Review of World energy 2010, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications /statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdfo
72 IEA Statistics, CO2 Emissions from fuel Combustion, Highlights,2009 Edition, http://ccsl.iccip.net/co2highlights.pdfo
73 World Energy Outlook 2009, http://www.worldenergyoutIook.org/docs/weo2009/WEO2009_es_chinese.pdf。
74 例如,自20世纪90年代参与气候变化谈判以来,中国“强调以人均排放量为基准”的基本立场始终未有重大改变。参见张海滨：《中国在国际气候变化谈判中的立场：连续性与变化及其原因探析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2006年第10期,第39页。
75 参见Karl Hallding, Guoyi Han, and Marie Olsson, A Balancing Act:China's Role in Climate Change, Stockholm:Swedish Commission on Sustainable Development,2009。
76 杨洁勉主编：《世界气候外交和中国的应对,北京：时事出版社2009年版,第265页。
77 John M. Broder, "In Obama's Team, Two Camps on Climate Change," The New York Times, January 2,2009.
78 参见严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国与G77在国际气候谈判中的分歧》,载《现代国际关系》,2010年第4期,第22-23页。张磊：《国际气候政治的中国困境——一种微观层次的梳理》,载《教学与研究》,2010年第2期,第69-70页。
79 AOSIS, Declaration on Climate Change 2009, http://www.sidsnet.org/aosis/documents/AOSIS%20Summit%20Declaration%20Sept%2021%20F INAL.pdf
80 AOSIS, Declaration on Climate Change 2009, http://www.sidsnet.org/aosis/documents/AOSIS%20Summit%20Declaration%20Sept%2021%20F INAL.pdf
81 Jianjun Tu, "Future Prospects of China's Policy on Climate Change", The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume IX, Issue 1,2009, pp.13-14.
82 有关国家参与国际制度的详细阐述,参见史明涛：《国家正向和反向参与国际制度：一·个国际——国内制度互动的解释》,载《国际观察》,2009年第2期,第57-64页。
83 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第53页。
84 Detlef Sprinz, Tapani vaahtoranta, "The Interest-Based Explanation of International Environmental Policy", International Organization, Vol.48, No.1,1994, pp.80-81.
75 参见陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第54页。庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第11页。
86 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第1期,第66-83页。
87 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第1期,第78页。
88 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第54-55页。
89 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第12页。
90 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第55页。这一分析视角类似于“以知识为基础”(knowledge-based)的分析模式,See Hongyuan Yu, "Knowledge and Climate Change Policy Coordination in China," East Asia, Vol.21, No.3,2004, pp.58-77.
91 就现有成果而言,2003年,Zhang Zhihong(?)分析了影响中国国际气候变化谈判政策的三个因素：国家利益、主权和国际形象。参见Zhang Zhihong, "The Forces behind China As Climate Change Policy:Interests, Sovereignty, and Prestige", in Paul G. Harris, ed., Global Warming and East Asia:The Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, London:Routledge,2003,p.66.2007年,中国社会科学院城市与发展研究中心的陈迎博士提出了减缓成本、脆弱性、国际转移支付和国际碳市场、与其他问题挂钩、其他因素(如国际形象)等要素来理解中国参与国际气候谈判的立场。参见陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载 《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第56-59页。北京大学国际关系学院的张海滨博士则主张用减缓成本、生态脆弱性和公平原则三个变量来解释中国的气候变化立场。参见张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第26-34页。
92 张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第30页。
93 国家环保总局中国环境规划院课题组：《2020年中国能源与环境面临的挑战与对策》,http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/xxfw/hyyw/t20051107_48390.htm
94 Z. Zhang, The Ecomics of Energy Policy in China:Implications for Global Climate Change, Edward Elgar,1997.转引自崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第205页。
95 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第57页。
96[美]曼瑟尔·奥尔森著,陈郁等译：《集体行动的逻辑》,上海：上海人民出版社1995年版,第2页。
97 陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社2008年版,第18页。
98 庄贵阳、米仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社2009年版,第205页。
99 有关《京都议定书》所提供的选择性激励研究,参见陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社2008年版,第81-151页。
100 International Institute for Sustainable Development, "A Daily Report on the Eleventh Session of the NC for the Framework Convention on Climate Change," Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol.12, No.5,1995, http://www.iisd.ca/download/asc/enb1205e.txt。
101 参见国家发展和改革委员会副主任姜伟新在中国清洁发展机制(CDM)大会开幕式上的讲话,2005年10月20日,http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/UpFile/File506.PDFo
102 相关讨论,参见：徐玉高、何建坤：《气候变化问题上的平等权利准则》,载《世界环境》,2002年第2期,第17-21页：陈迎、潘家华：《温室气体排放中的公平问题》,http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3963:郑艳、梁帆：《气候公平原则与国际气候制度构建》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第6期,第69-90页Henry Shue, "Equity in an International Agreement on Climate Change," in Equity and Social Considerations Related to Climate Change, ed., Richard Samson Odingo et al, Nairobi:ICIPE Science Press,1995; Mathew Paterson, "International Justice and Global Warming," in The Ethical Dimensions of Global Change, Barry Holden ed., London:Macmillan Press,1996; Adam Rose, Brandt Stevens, Jae Edmonds and Marshall Wise, "International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy:An Application to Tradable Emission Permits", Environmental and Resource Economics 12:25-51,1998. Paul G. Harris, International Equity and Global Environmental Politics, Aldershot:Ashgate,2001; Elle Wiegandt, "Climate Change, Equity, and International Negotiations", in Urs Luterbacher and Detlef F. Sprinz, eds., International Relations and Global Climate Change, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001.
103 Duncan French, "Developing States and International Environmental Law:The Importance of Differentiated Responsibilities", The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol.49, No. 1 (Jan.,2000), pp.35-60. Paul G. Harris, "Global Warming in Asia-Pacific:Environmental Change vs. International Justice", Asia-Pacific Review, Vol.9, No.2,2002, pp.130-149.
104 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三条。
105 张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第32-34页。
106 关于中国在国际制度中谋求声誉的研究及其争论,参见王学东：《外交战略中的声誉因素 研究——冷战后中国参与国际制度的解释》,天津：天津人民出版社2007年版：陈寒溪：《中,国如何在国际制度中谋求声誉》,载《当代亚太》,2008年第4期,第143-158页； 王学东：《中国参与国际制度的声誉考量》,载《当代亚太》,2009年第2期,第147-160页。
107 Hyung-Kwon Jeon and Seong-Suk Yoon, "From International Linkages to Internal Divisions in China:the Political Response to Climate Change Negotiations", Asian Survey, November/December 2006, Vol.46, No.6, p.852.
108 “中国批准京都议定书,联合国称树立一个良好榜样”,中国新闻网,2002-08-31,http://news.china.com/zh_cn/domestic/945/20020831/11319837.html
109 中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室：《中国的能源状况与政策》(白皮书),http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-12/26/content844159.htm
110 Bo Wang, "Understanding China's Climate Change Policy—From Both International and Domestic Perspectives", American Journal of Chinese Studies, volume 16, issue 2, October 2009, pp.87-104. Gorild Heggelund, "China's Climate Change Policy:Domestic and International Development", Asian Perspective, Vol.31, No.2,2007, p.178.
111 根据研究视角和目的的不同,可以将中国参与国际气候制度的历程划分为不同的阶段。例如,有国外学者将中国参与国际气候谈判的立场分为3个阶段：《联合国气候变化框架公约》签订及生效阶段(1990～1994年左右)；《京都议定书》的签订及生效阶段(1995～2005年左右);以及后京都谈判阶段(2005～)。参见[挪威]唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第35-37页。还有学者将中国的立场演变分为“被动却积极参与阶段”(1990-1994年);“谨慎保守参与阶段”(1995-2001年)；“活跃、开放参与阶段”(2002-)。参见严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第80-90页。本文在借鉴上述研究成果的基础上将中国参与国际气候制度的谈判分为四个阶段。
112 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第522页。
113 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第254页。
114 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科…版社1995年版,第255页。
115 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际所治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第9-10页。
116 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第82页。
117 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第249页。
118 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第359页。
119 唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第36页。
120 参见"Earth Negotiation Bulletin", Vol.12, No.5, p.9, p.55, Http://www.iisd.ca/linkages/vo112/
121 唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第36页。
122 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第83页。
123 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第10页。
124 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1 期,第84页。
125 参见中国清洁发展机制网,http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CDM/UpFile/File2560.pdf
126 中国国务院新闻办公室：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》(2008年),http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-10/29/content_1134378.htm
127 参见中国代表团团长刘江部长在气候变化公约第六次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网,http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3875
128 参见胡锦涛2008年7月9目在经济大国能源安全和气候变化领导人会议上的讲话,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-07/10/content_8519929.htm
129 康晓琴、刘振宏、徐淑媛：《中国清洁发展机制项目现状分析》,载《中外能源》,2009年第8期,第25页。
130 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第89页。
1 Harris, P.G., "International Environmental Affairs and U.S. Foreign Policy," in P.G. Harris (ed.), The Environment, International Relations, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington, DC:Georgetown University Press,2001, p.34.
Bryner, G., From Promises to Performance:Achieving Global Environmental Goals, New York: W.W. Norton,1997, p.9.
3 Brett D. Schaefer, "Green Creep:the Increasing Influence of Environmentalism in U.S. Foreign Policy", in Terry L. Anderson and Henry I. Miller eds., The Greening of U.S. Foreign Policy, Stanford:Hoover Institution Press,2000, p.41.
Terry L. Anderson and Henry I. Miller eds., the Greening of U.S. Foreign Policy, Stanford: Hoover Institution Press,2000.
5 David Brian Robertson and Dennis R. Judd, The Development of American Public Policy:The Structure of Policy Restraint, Glenview,I11.:Scott, Foresman and Co.,1989, p.323.
0 Tom Wicker, One of Us:Richard and the American Dream, New York:Random House,1991, p.509. Micheal R. Vickery, "Conservative Politics and the Politics of Conservation:Richard Nixon and the Environmental Protection Agency", in Tarla Rai Peterson eds., Green Talk in the White House:the Ehrtorical Presidency Encounters Ecology, Texas:Texas A&M University Press,2004, p.116.
Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford: Oxford University Press,1998, p.86.
8 Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford: Oxford University Press,1998, p.86.
John McCormick, Reclaiming Paradise:The Global Environmental Movement, Bloomington: Indiana University Press,1991, p.110.
10 Memo, "United States International Environmental Initiative", Rogers to Nixon,12 Jan.1972, annex 6, p.2.
11 于宏源、汤伟：《美国环境外交：发展、动因和手段研究》,载《教学与研究》,2009年第9期,第62-63页。
12 Don Munton, et al., "A ir, Water, and Political Fire:Building a North American Environmental Regime", in Chaire Cutler, et al., eds., Canadian Foreign Policy and International Economic Regimes, Vancouver:The University of British Columbia Press,1992, p.319.
13 杨令侠：《加拿大与美国关于酸雨的环境外交》,载《南开学报》,2002年第3期,第119页。
14 Kraft and Vig, "Environmental Policy from the Seventies to the Nineties", in Vig and Kraft eds., Environmental Policy in the 1990s, Washington DC:Congressional Quarterly Press,1994, p.15.
15 Michael E. kraft, "U. S. Environmental Policy and Politics:From the 1960s to 1990s", in Otic L. Graham J r eds., Environmental Politics and Policy:1960s—1990s, Pennsylvania:The Pennsylvania State University Press,2000, p.30.
16 参见Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.129. Paul G. Garris, "International Environmental Affairs and U.S. Foreign Policy", in Paul G. Garris eds., The Environment, International Relations and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington DC:Georgetown University Press,2001, p.5.
17 Vig N.J., "Presidential Leadership and the Environment:From Reagan and Bush to Clinton", in Vig and Kraft eds., Environmental Policy in the 1990s, Washington DC:Congressional Quarterly Press,1994, p.83.
18 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第29页。
Benedick, Richard Elliot., Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, the 2ed edition, Cambridge, Massachusetts:Harvard University Press,1998, p.159.
20 参见楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第29-30页。
21 Clinton Bill and Al Gore, Putting People First:How We Can AH Change America, New York: Times Books,1992, p.93.
22 J. Robert Cox, "The (Re) Making of the 'Environmental President':Clinton/Gore and the Rhetoric of U.S. Environmental Politics,1992—1996", in Tarla Rai Peterson eds., Green Talk in the White House:the Rhetorical Presidency Encounters Ecology, Texas:Tesxs A&M University Press,2004, p.160.
23 薄燕：《环境问题与美国国家安全战略》,载《美国研究》,2002年第2期,第79-92页。
24 The White House, "A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement", February 1995, Introduction, p.l. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss-95.pdf
25 Gareth Porter, "International Security Resources Planning:The Next Step for Environmental Security," ECSP Report 2,1996, pp.32-37.
26 The White House, "1996 U. S. National Security Strategy Report," http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm
27 参见美国1997年《环境外交报告》,http://cryptome.org/jya/dos042297.htm
28 参见美国1997年《环境外交报告》, http://cryptome.org/jya/dos042297.htm
29 "Clinton Lays out Environmental Program", http://www.loe.org/shows/shows.htm?programID=93-P 13-00017
30 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第30页。
31 参见丁金光：《国际环境外交》,北京：中国社会科学出版社2007年版,第148页。.
32 United States Department of State, "Environmental Diplomacy:The Environment and U.S. Foreign Policy", available at:http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/earth.html
33 于宏源、汤伟：《美国环境外交：发展、动因和手段研究》,载《教学与研究》,2009年第9期,第67页。
34 [美]沃伦·克里斯托弗：《美国新外交：经济、防务、民主——美国前国务卿克里斯托弗回忆录》,苏广辉、张林宏、符晓等译,北京：新华出版社1999年版,第151页。
35 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第43页。
36 [美]赫伯特·斯坦：《美国总统经济史：从罗斯福到克林顿》,金清、郝黎莉译,长春：吉林人民出版社1997年版,第68页。
37 Richard N. L. Andrews, Managing the Environment, Managing Ourselves:A History of American Environmental Policy,2ed Edition, New Haven:Yale University Press,2006, pp.385-389.
Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraff, eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century,6th Edition, Washington, D.C.:CO Press,2006, p.112.
Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraff, eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century,6th Edition, Washington, D.C.:CO Press,2006, p.114-115.
Dick-Cheney, National Energy Policy:Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, available at:http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyReport/National-Energy-Policy.pdf
41 Glenn Kessler and Amy Goldstein, "First Bush Budget Makes Modest Cuts", Washington Post, April 10,2001; "Bush Budget:The Losers", Washington Post, April 10,2001; "Who Gets What Slice of the President's First Federal Budget Pie," New York Times, April 10,2001.
Diana Jean Schemo and Lynette Clemtson, "Domestic Gains for Education but Not Much Else", New York Times, February 3,2004; David Stout, "Bush Seeks Sweeping Budget Cuts to Rein in Federal Deficit", New York Times, February 8,2005.
43 "The Bush Record:More than 300 Crimes against Nature", available at: http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/200409/bush_record_print.asp
44 Jaroslaw Anders and Staff Writer, "Environmental Protection Vital Part of U.S. Trade Policy", available at: http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2007/April/20070416144949zjsredna0.9548761.html
45 Amanda Little, "Obama leads bipartisan effort to raise fuel-economy standards", available at: http://www.grist.org/article/fuel-econ/
46 Micheline Maynard, "Obama Criticizes Automakers on Fuel Economy", May 8,2007.
47 "Barack Obama and Joe Biden:Promoting a Healthy Environment",available at: http://www.barackobama.com/pdfissues/Environment FaclSheet.pdf
48 参见美国白宫官方网站环境和能源部分,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/energy-and-environment 49 U.S. Department of Energy:http://www.pi.energy.gov/usa_china_energy_cooperation.htm; 有
关中美环境外交的研究,参见丁金光、史卉：《中美环境外交的回顾与展望》,载《现代国际关系》2010年第4期,第27-31页。
50 "Summit of Americas Leaders Pledge Environmental Cooperation", April 20,2009. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2009/2009-04-20-01.html
51 Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009, p.9.
52 See IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and_data/publications and data_reports.shtml#1
53 Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," p.71.
54 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, pp.852-856.
55 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.862; Thomas R. Karl and Gerald A. Meehl, "Executive Summary," in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.: Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, pp.4,8; Claudia Tebaldi and others, "Going to the Extremes:An Inter-comparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events," Climatic Change, vol.79,2007, p.22.这种变化已经在北美的大部分地区发生,其中很大程度上与人类活动对气候的影响有关。
56 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections,'" in Susan Solomon and others, eds.. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.887.
Backlund, Janetos, and Schimel, The Effects of Climate Change, p.149; Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009, p.42.
58 Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," p.75; J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press, 2007, p.890.
59 Meehl and others, "Global Climate Projections," in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus:North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, pp.750, 782; Claudia Tebaldi and others, "Going to the Extremes:An Inter-comparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events," Climatic Change, vol.79, 2007, pp.185-211.
60 Field and others, "North America", in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus:North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, p.629; and National Science and Technology Council, Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States.
61 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the United States, A Report by Congressional Budget Office, May 2009, pp.12-13. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/101xx/doc10107/05-04-ClimateChange_forWeb.pdf
Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, p.9.
Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, p.178.
64 See Field and others, "North America," pp.631-632; Michael Fogarty and others, "Potential Climate Change Impacts on Atlantic Cod (Gadus Morhua) off the Northeastern U.S.A.," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol.13, no.5-6 (June 2008), pp. 453-466; and Heinz G. Stefan, Xing Fang, and John G. Eaton, "Simulated Fish Habitat Changes in North American Lakes in Response to Projected Climate Warming," Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, vol.130, no.3 (May 2001), pp.459-477.
65 Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009, p.80.
“66 可参见John Reilly and others, "U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change:New Results," Climatic Change, vol.57.2003, pp.43-69.
67 所谓CO2的施肥效应是指CO2浓度增加对植物生长的助长作用。CO2浓度上升对粮食作物产量产生的影响将直接关系到气候变化背景下的的全球粮食供应安全及人类适应对策。
See John Reilly and others, Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests Due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone, Report No.149 (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change,2007), http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt 149.pdf.
69 参见Allison M. Thomson and others, "Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment," Climatic Change, vol.69, no.1, March 2005.
70 See Raymond P. Motha and Wolfgang Baier, "Impacts of Present and Future Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture in the Temperate Regions:North America," Climatic Change, Vol.70, No.1-2 (May 2005), pp.137-164; Robert Mendelsohn and Michelle Reinsborough, "A Ricardian Analysis of U.S. and Canadian Farmland," Climatic Change, vol.81. No.1 (March 2007), pp.9-17.
71 Cynthia Rosenzweig and others, "Increased Crop Damage in the US from Excess Precipitation Under Climate Change," Global Environmental Change, Vol.12, No.3 (October 2002), pp. 197-202.
72 Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, pp.21-74.
Robert Mendelsohn and James E. Neumann, eds., The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2004, p.25.
74 Mills, E., "2005:Insurance in a climate of change," Science, Vol.309, No.5737, pp.1040-1044.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, Climate Change:Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers in Coming Decades are Potentially Significant, Report to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Washington, DC,2007, p.l. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07285.pdf
76 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
" U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010, http://www.defense.gov/qdr/QDR%20as%20of%2029JAN10%201600.pdf
78 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
The CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, April 2007, http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%2 0Climate%20Change.pdf
Joshua W. Busby JW. Climate Change and National Security:An Agenda for Action, Council Special Reports,2007, No.32, p.l. http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/ClimateChange_CSR32.pdf
Joshua William Busby, "Who Cares about the Weather? Climate Change and U.S. National Security," Security Studies, Vol.17, No.3,2008, p.492.
82 White House, Arctic Region Policy, National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-66, Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-25, Washington, D.C.:Office of the Press Secretary,12 January 2009. Available at: http://www.nsf.gov/od/opp/opp;advisory/briefings/may2009/nspd66_hspd25.pdf;该文件的中文版可参见：中国极地研究中心编：《国外极地考察信息汇编》,2009年第14期,第34-39页。有关气候变化与北极地缘政治博弈的研究,参见何奇松：《气候变化与北极地缘政治博弈》,载《外交评论》,2010年第5期,第113-122页。
http://www.gechs.org/downloads/holmen/Busby.pdf
84 Letitia Lawson, "U.S. Africa Policy since the Cold War," Strategic Insights 6, No.1,2007, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2007/Jan/lawsonJan07.pdf
Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," pp.35-54; Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,2008, p.3.
86 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.173.
87 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil", available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/energy in brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm
88 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "AEO2011 Early Release Overview", available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383er(2011).pdf
89 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "DRAFT-Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:1990-2009", http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads11/US-GHG-Inventory-2011-Executive-S
ummary.pdf 90 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.174.
91 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.174.
92 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "AEO2011 Early Release Overview", available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383er(2011).pdf
93 "PNG's PM criticises US climate change policy as irresponsible, "http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=50602
94 关于是欧盟,而不是美国在京都进程中扮演“领导者”角色的原因分析,参见薄燕：《“京都进程”的领导者：为什么是欧盟不是美国》,载《国际论坛》,2008年第5期,第1-7页。95 参见刘慧、陈欣荃：《美欧气候变化政策的比较分析》,载《国际论坛》,2009年第6期,第22页。
96 钱皓：《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第59页。
97 有关环境决策过程中科学与伦理关系的讨论,参见John Lemons and Donald Brown, "The Role of Science in Sustainable Development and Environmental Decision-making", in John Lemons and Donald Brown eds., Sustainable Development; Science, Ethics, and Public Policy, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995, pp.11-35.
98 Donald A. Brown, American Heat:Ethical Problems with the United States' Response to Global Warming, Boston:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,2002, p.138.
99 国际关系中的“祖父原则”(Grandfathering Principles)最初可追溯至二战结束后,战胜国和后来的发达国家在重新设置国际制度时已经考虑将以“祖父原则”为基础,以制度规范认可发达国家和发展中国家在各个领域的权利差异。参见钱皓《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第63-64页
100 Paul G. Harris, World Ethics and Climate Change:from International to Global Justice, Edinburgh:Edinburgh University Press,2010, p.82.
101 钱皓：《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第68页。
102 European Parliament, "United States Climate Change Policy", http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies/download.do?file=19959
103 Donald A. Brown, American Heat:Ethical Problems with the United States' Response to Global Warming, Boston:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,2002, p.71.
104 王维、周睿：《美国气候政策的演进及其析因》,载《国际观察》,2010年第5期,第73页。
105 Bill McKibben, The End of Nature, New York:Random House,1989, p.29.
106 Tom Athanasiou, US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J.:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.163.
107 Larry B. Stammer, "Geopolitical Effects of Global Heating Gauged," Los Angeles Times, February 10,1992, p.1.
108 Karen Schmidt, Industrial Countries' Response to Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C.: Environment and Energy Study Institute,1991, p.95.
109 Scott A. Hajost, "The Role of the United States", in The Environment After Rio:International Law and Economics, edited by Luigi Campiglio, London:Graham and Trotman,1994, p.18.
110 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约议定书》文本。
111 Paul R. Brewer and Andrew Pease, "Federal Climate Politics in the United States:Polarization and Paralysis", in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey eds., Turning down the Heat:the Politics of Climate Policy in Affluent Democracies, England:Palgrave Macmillan,2008, p.86.
112 Paul R. Brewer and Andrew Pease, "Federal Climate Politics in the United States:Polarization and Paralysis", in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey eds., Turning down the Heat:the Politics of Climate Policy in Affluent Democracies, England:Palgrave Macmillan,2008, p.86. Paul G. Harris, "Climate Change:Is the United States Sharing the Bueden?" in Paul G. Harris edit., Climate Change and American Foreign Policy, New York:St. Martin's Press,2000, p.38.
113 President Clinton, "Address to the Joint Sessions of Congress", Feb.17,1993, available at http://clinton6.nara.gov/1993/0211993-02-17-address-by-the-president-tothe-joint-session-of-con gress.html.环境组织帮助起草了此份协议,参见Thomas W. Lippman, "Energy Tax Proposal Has 'Green'Tint; Environmentalists Back Plan They Helped Draft", Washington Post, Mar.2, 1993, Dl.
114 White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by the President in Earth Day Speech (Apr.21,1993), available at http://clinton6.nara.gov/1993/0411993-04-21-presidents-remarks-in-earth-day-speech.html
115 Agrawala and Andresen, "U.S. Climate Policy:Evolution and Future Prospects," Energy and Environment, Summer 2001, p.6. 116 David S. Hilzenrath, "Politics Overtakes Policy in Energy Tax Debate", Washington Post, July 20,1993, C1.
117 National Research Council, "Effects of Past Global Change on Life Panel on Effects of Past Global Change on Life," Washington, D.C:National Academies Press,1995.
118 President Clinton, Address at National Geographic Society, paragraphs 9 and 13 (Oct.22, 1997), http://clinton6.nara.gov/1997/10/1997-10-22-remarks-onglobal-climate-change.html
119 Al Gore, "Keynote Address by U.S. Vise-President Al Gore," Environmental Policy and Law, Vol.23, No.3/4,1993, pp.183-185.
120 该方案的内容,参见：President William J. Clinton and Vice President Albert Gore, Jr., "The Climate Change Action Plan" (Oct.1993), available at http://www.gcrio.org/USCCAP/toc.html
121 Paul G. Harris, "Climate Change:Is the United States Sharing the Bueden?" in Paul G. Harris edit., Climate Change and American Foreign Policy, New York:St. Martin's Press,2000, p.39.
122 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinlon:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.429.
123 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinton:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.429.
124 薄燕：《国际谈判与国内政治：美国与<京都议定书>谈判的实例》,上海：上海三联书店2007年版,第113页。
125 参见S. Res.98,105th Cong (1997), "Byrd-Hagel Resolution", Sponsored by Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), available at: http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html
126 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinton:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.437.
127 President Clinton's Climate Change Proposal (Oct.22,1997), available at http://www.state.govlwww/globallglobal_issueslclimatelbackground.html
128 "U.S. Rejection of Kyoto Protocol Process", The American Journal of International Law, Vol.95, No.3,2001, p.648. 129 Amy Goldstein &Eric Pianin, "Hill Pressure Fueled Bush's Emission Shift, Washington Post, Mar.15,2001, at Al.
130 "U.S. Rejection of Kyoto Protocol Process", The American Journal of International Law, Vol.95, No.3,2001, p.649.
131 "Bush Speech on Global Climate Change'", available at: http://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2001/010611/epf103.htm
132 参见White House Climate Change Review--Interim Report, June 11,2001, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/4584.pdf; "Bush Speech on Global Climate Change", available at: http://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2001/010611/epf103.htm
133 U.S. Department of State, "U.S. Pledges Continued Support for Climate Change Convention.' International Information Programs, July 19,2001,参见美国国务院网网站：http://www.usinfo.state.gov/topical/global/climate/01031401.htm.
134 美国国家海洋与国际环境、科学事务局：http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/4149.htm 135 See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Clear Sky Act of 2003", http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/fact2003.html
136 U.S. EPA, President Bush Announces Clear Skies & Global Climate Change Initiatives, February 14,2002. http://www.epa.gov/epahome/headline2_021402.htm.
137 庄贵阳：《举步维艰的<京都议定书>》,载《全球政治安全报告》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第116页。
138 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第32页。
139 例如,2007年4月,海军分析中心(Center for Naval Analysis)就发表了名为《国家安全与气候变化的威胁》的报告,并且得到数十位退役美军高级将领的支持。参见Center for Naval Analysis, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA:CAN Corportation,2007), available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%2 0Climate%20Change.pdf See also Alan Dupont, "The Strategic Implications of Climate Change," Survival, Vol.50, No.3, June/July 2008, p.30.
140 例如,2008年5月28日,美国科学家学会(Union of Concerned Scientist s)公布了首次由全美顶尖的1700多名科学家与经济学家联合签署的《美国科学家与经济学家关于迅速及深入减少温室体排放的呼吁书》,旨在请求美国领导人立即采取措施大幅度减少导致全球变暖的气体排放。参见"U.S. Scientists and Economists'Call for Swift and Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions", http://www.env-econ.net/2008/04/us-scienlists-a.html
141 参见李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第33页。
142 Caroline Daniel, "Bush Admits to Role of Humans in Global Warming," Financial Times, July 7,2005, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb0c3b94-ee84-11d9-98e5-00000e2511c8.html#axzzlIF9r4kIX
143 Stephen Lacey, Staff Writer, "Bush Addresses Climate Change in State of the Union Address, " Jan24,2007, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/01/bush-addresses-climate-change-i n-state-of-the-union-address-47216144 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第34页。
145 "Remarks by President Bush on Climate Change",16 April,2008, http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/April/20080416165403eaifas0.1469843.html
146 Barack H. Obama, Inaugural Address, January 20,2009, available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2009/01/21/president-barack-obamas-inaugural-address
147 参见马建英：《奥巴马政府的气候政策分析》,载《和平与发展》,2009年第5期,第45-50页。
Larry West, "Green Initiatives, Tax Incentives are at Core of 2009 Economic Stimulus Package", http://environment.about.com/od/environmentallawpolicy/a/econ stimulus.htm
Jason Bordoff, Lael Brainard, Carola McGiffert and Isaac Sorkin, "Strengthening American Competitiveness:Regaining Our Competitive Edge- Four Priorities and 20 New Ideas", Report of Brookings,2009, p.16. http://www.brookings.edu/-/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/02_american_competitiveness_brainard/ 02_american_competitiveness_brainard.pdf
150 马建英：《奥巴马政府的气候政策分析》,载《和平与发展》,2009年第5期,第46页。151 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中信出版社 2009年版,第45页。
152 John M. Broder, "In Obama's Team, Two Camps on Climate Change," The New York Times, Jan.2,2009.
153 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中,信出版社2009年版,第48-49页。
154 2009年4月27日,该论坛在美国召开了首次会议。
155 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中信出版社2009年版,第51页。
156 美国国会预算局官方网站："CBO's Baseline and Estimate of the President's Budget", March 2009. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10014/Chapterl.5.1.shtm1#1098869
157 “美国气候变化问题特使要求国会通过清洁能源法案”,2009年11月4日,http://www.america.gov/st/energy-chinese/2009/November/20091106141716dmslahrellek0.59418 89.html
158 参见李海东：《奥巴马政府的气候变化政策与根本哈根世界气候大会》,载《外交评论》,2009年第6期,第28页。
159 陈迎：《迈向哥本哈根之路不平坦》,载王伟光、郑国光主编：《应对气候变化报告(2009)：迈向哥本哈根》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2009年版,第338页。
160 “美国附苛刻条件提出中期气候融资方案”,新华网,2009年12月17日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-12/17/content_12663625.htm
1 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", in Richard Louis Edmonds eds., Managing the Chinese Environment, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.83.
2 分别参见中国代表团团长刘江在气候变化公约第五次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3876;中国代表团团长王金祥在
气候变化公约第十一次缔约方会议暨京都议定书第一次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3836
3 这一点体现于朱镕基在2003年3月5日所做的政府工作报告中,参见朱镕基：《2003年政府工作报告》,http://www.gov.cn/test/2006-02/16/content_201173.htm
4 温家宝在第六次全国环境保护大会上的讲话：《全面落实科学发展观加快环境友好型社会建设》,参见中国环境网：http://www.cenews.com.cn/historynews/06 07/200712/t20071229_24479.html
5 参见胡锦涛在2009 年9月22日纽约联合国气候变化峰会上的讲话,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-09/23/content_2098929.htm。
6 The World Bank, "Public Attitudes Toward Climate Change:Findings from A Multi-Country Poll," http://siteresources.worldbank.org/1NTWDR2010/Resources/Background-report.pdfo
'Elizabeth Economy and Miranda A. Schreurs, "Domestic and International Linkages in Environmental Politics", in Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy eds., The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, New York:Cambridge University Press,1997, p.6.
Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Broading Perspectives and Policies but only to A Point", in David Lampton eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.251.
9 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第651页。
10 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, Vol.156, December 1998, p.818.
11 参见《世界环境》网站：http://www.wem.org.cn/news/view.asp?id=165&cataid=27
12 《国务院关于成立国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组的通知》,载中国政府网,http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-06/18/content_652460.htm;另可参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/column.asp?ColumnId= 12
13 “外交部建立应对气候变化对外工作机制”,2007/09/03,参见中国外交部官方网站：http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/wjbxw/t358121.htm
14 《法<欧洲时报>评环保总局升为环保部：亮点中的亮点》,载中国网,http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/2008-03/15/content 12702315.htm
15 Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Broading Perspectives and Policies but only to A Point", in David Lampton eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.236.
16 劳特派特修订：《奥本海国际法》上卷,第1分册,(第八版),王铁崖、陈体强译,北京：商务印书馆1981年版,第24-25页。
17 所谓气候变化立法,是指一国制定的以温室气体的排放控制为导向,以气候变化问题的应对为目的的法律、法规和其他规范性文件的总和。参见杨兴、刘最跃《我国气候变化立法的缺陷及其对策分析》,《时代法学》2006年第2期,第68页。另外,中国专门的气候变化立法工作已经启动,参见“专家版气候变化应对立法启动,2012年年底定稿”,中国新闻网,2010-11-11, http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2010/11-11/2648628.shtml
18 参见《中华人民共和国固体废物污染环境防治法》第四十三条。
19 参见《中华人民共和国清洁生产促进法》第十六条第一款。
20 参见《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》第九条。
21 参见《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》第二十五条。
22 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第5页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
23 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第21页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
24 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
25国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动—2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第8页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
26 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
27 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,《世界经济与政治》2010年第1期,第81页。
28 Gorild Heggelund, "China's Climate Change Policy:Domestic and International Development", Asian Perspective, Vol.31, No.2,2007, p.163-164.
29 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
30 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
31 《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,前沿第2页。32 “我国第二次气候变化国家评估报告完成编写”,参见：中国气候变化网：http://www.ipcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=15&NewsID=852
33 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月。
34 参见中国科技部、国家发改委等联合发布：《中国应对气候变化科技专项行动》,2007年6月,第1页。中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File 198.pdf
35 2008—2010年的《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》文本,参见中国气候变化信息网： http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/column.asp?ColumnId=31
36 《我国于30日正式启动省级应对气候变化方案项目》,中国环境与发展国际合作委员会网站,http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/2008-07/01/content_15915198.htm。
37 该立场文件参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbqt/2009qt/t20090521_280387.htm
38 国家林业局：《应对气候变化林业行动计划》,北京：中国林业出版社2010年版。
39 “国务院关于做好建设节约型社会近期重点工作的通知”,中国政府网,2005-09-08,http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-09/08/content_30265.htm
40 《国务院关于加快发展循环经济的若干意见》,《中国环境年鉴2005》),北京：中国环境年鉴社2005年版,第31-32页。
41 “四个不批”：即对于国家明令淘汰、禁止建设、不符合国家产业政策的项目,一律不批；环境污染重,产品质量低,能耗、物耗高,污染物不能达标排放的项目,一律不批；环境质量不能满足环境功能区要求,没有总量指标的项目,一律不批;位于自然保护区核心区、缓冲区内的项目,一律不批。”“三个严格”,即严格限制审批涉及饮用水水源保护区、自然保护区、风景名胜区以及重要生态功能区的项目;严格限制审批能耗、物耗、污染物排放量大的项目,并且要坚决杜绝已被淘汰的项目以所谓技术改造、拉动内需等名义重新上马；严格按照总量控制的要求,把污染物排放总量指标作为区域、行业、企业发展的约束条件。参见中国环境保护部副部长吴晓青在第十一届全国人大二次会议新闻中心举行的“当前环境保护形势和任务”专题采访上的回答,中国环保部官方网站,2009-03-12,http://www.zhb.gov.cn/zhxx/hjyw/200903/t20090312_135225.htm
42 《胡锦涛吴邦国温家宝贾庆林习近平李克强贺国强周永康参观2009中国国际节能减排和新能源科技博览会》,载《人民日报》,2009年3月21日。
43 “国务院常务会研究决定我国控制温室气体排放目标”,中国政府网,2009年11月26日,http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/26/content_1474016.htm
44 温家宝：《推进应对气候变化历史进程》,载《人民日报》,2009年12月19日。
45 “国家发展与改革委员会关于批准武汉城市圈和长株潭城市群为全国资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设综合配套改革试验区的通知”,参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/gzdt/t20071221_180138.htm
46 “国家发展改革委关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知”,参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2010tz/t20100810_365264.htm
47 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第28页。
48 Norman J. Vig, "Presidential Powers and Environmental Policy", in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, p.82.
49 President William J. Clinton, Vice President Al Gore, J r., "The Climate Change Action Plan,"October 1993, available at:http://www.gcrio.org/USCCAP/index.html
30 "Remarks As Prepared for Delivery for Vice President Al Gore:Kyoto Climate Change Conference", December 8,1997, http://clinton2.nara.gov/WH/EOP/OVP/speeches/kyotofin.html
51 Beth Daley, "Obama urged to create'Green New Deal'", http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2008/11/24/obama_urged_to_create_green_new_dea 1/
52 例如,2010年7月22日,美国参议院多数党领袖哈里·里德宣布,在参议院夏季休会前付诸全体讨论表决的能源议案中舍弃限制碳排放的气候条款。这基本上宣告了第111届美国国会关于限定温室气体排放的气候立法努力的失败,对奥巴马政府限制温室气体排放的努力无疑是一个打击。参见杨强、梅仁毅：《奥巴马政府气候政策遇挫及影响》,载《现代国际关系》,2010年第11期,第59-62页。
53 Christopher P. Borick, "American Public Opinion and Climate Change", in Barry G. Rabe ed., Greenhouse Governance:Addressing Climate Change in America, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2010, pp.27-28.
54 Pew Environment Group:http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/poll/index.html.
55 The Yale. Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Communication, "Global Warming's Six Americas", May 14,2010 to June 1,2010, http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/images/files/Six_Americas_June_2010(1).pdf
56 由于美国第101届国会起始于1989-1990年,本文将1989年国会有关气候变化议题的立法提案也列入了本项统计研究中。
57 David M. Driesen, "The Changing Climate for United States Law," Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol.1, No.1,2007, p.34.
58 American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, the 111th Congress HR.3036. EH
59 参见中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所＆气候组织主办,《美国应对气候变化的战略和立法——分析发展动向及其对中国的启示》,载《气候变化展望》,2009年第1期,第7页。
60 高翔、牛晨：《美国气候变化立法进展及启示》,载《美国研究》,2010年第3期,第49页。
61 参见高翔、牛晨：《美国气候变化立法进展及启示》,载《美国研究》,2010第3期,第50页。
62 Barry G. Rabe, "Can Congress Govern the Climate", in Barry G. Rabe ed., Greenhouse Governance:Addressing Climate Change in America, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2010, p.282.
63 有关美国50个州应对气候变化问题的举措,参见Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, pp.371-405.
"History of California's Involvement in Air Pollution and Climate Change," available at: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/background/history.html
65 John C. Dernbach and Seema Kakade, "Climate Change Law:An Introduction," Energy Law Journal, Vol.29, No.l,2008, p.15.
66 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Model Rule (2007), http://www.rggi.org/docs/model_rule_corrected_1_5_07.pdf
67 Western Climate Initiative, Work Plan October 2007-August 2008 (2007), http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/ewebeditpro/items/O104F13792.pdf.
68 有关此报告的详细信息,参见National Assessment Synthesis Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program, published in 2000, available at: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/first-national-assessment
69 该报告的文本,参见http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/140636.pdf
70 历年年报的详细文本,可参见http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/
71 参见李威：《碳关税的国际法与国际机制研究》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第41-42页。
Economics Focus, "Emissions Suspicions, " The Economist, June 19,2008, http://www.economist.com/node/11581408?story_id=11581408
73 Ian Talley and Tom Barkley, "Energy Chief Says U.S. Is Open to Carbon Tariff, "The Wall Street Journal, March 18,2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123733297926563315.html74 该法案的文本,参见：http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-111hr2454ih/pdf/BILLS-111hr2454ih.pdf
75 黄文旭：《碳关税相关概念辨析》,载《岭南学刊》,2011年第1期,第74页。
76 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本第四条第一款规定。基中,第十二条是要求“提供有关履行的信息”,具体参见《公约》文本。
Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, p.73.
78 例如,在制定《2005年能源政策法案》过程中,国会就承认：(1)温室气体在大气层中 的聚集会引起海平面上升和极端气候灾害的出现：(2)越来越多的科学事实显示人类活动是引起温室气体积聚的主主原因；(3)有必要采取强制措施米减缓和阻止这种聚集。参见Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, p.85.
79 谢来辉,陈迎：《中国对碳关税问题过度担忧了吗?》,载《国际经济评论》,2010年第4期,第139页。
80 有关美国国内因素对“碳关税”政策的影响分析,参见王俊：《从制度设想到贸易政策：美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第87-90页。
81 林民旺、朱立群：《国际规范的国内化：国内结构的影响及传播机制》,载《当代亚太》,2011年第1期,第141页。
82 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.25-27.
83 苏长和：《中国与国际制度——一项研究议程》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第10期,第9页。
Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.25.
85 Norman J. Vig, "Presidential Powers and Environmental Policy," in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, pp.76-77.
86 Michael E. Kraft, "Environmental Policy in Congress," in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, p.101.
1 下逸舟：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第509-510页。
2 [美]英吉.考尔等编：《全球化之道——全球公共产品的提供与管理》,张春波、高静译,北京：人民出版社2006年版,第83页。
3 苏长和：“新制度主义与旧制度主义——国际政治生活中的制度因素”, 《复旦国际政治研究论丛》第1卷,2001年,第15页。
4 杨洁勉：《中国对软实力的探索：作为公共产品的国际体系观》,载《国际问题论坛》,2007年秋季号,第9页。
5 [美]英吉·考尔编：《全球化之道：全球公共产品的提供与管理》,张春波、高静译,北京： 人民出版社,2006年版,第284页。
6 目前的新能源有太阳能、风能、地热能、海洋能、生物质能和核聚变能等。
7 有关能源与国际权势关系的论述,可参见赵宏图：“国际能源转型现状与前景”,载《现代国际关系》,2009年第6期,第35-42页。于宏源：“权力转移中的能源链及其挑战”,载《世界经济研究》,2008年第2期,第29-34页。于宏源：《环境变化和权势转移：制度、博弈和应对》,上海：上海人民版社2011年版。
8 本部分的论述,参见马建英：《浅析中美清洁能源合作》,载《现代国际关系》,2009年第12期,第49页。
9 《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年3月16日,参见中国政府网：http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/2006-03/16/content_228841.htm,2009年11月29日访问。
10 “国务院常务会研究决定我国控制温室气体排放目标”,中国政府网,2009年11月26日,http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/26/content_1474016.htm
11 “中国国际科技合作优先清洁能源、先进核能”,载《第一财经日报》,2006年12月4日,第A3版。
12 参见中国科技部、发改委等联合发布：《中国应对气候变化科技专项行动》,2007年6月。http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File198.pdf
13 “中国气象局局长郑国光建议尽快立法应对气候变化”,中国气象局官方网站：http://www.cma.gov.cn/ztbd/2010zt/20100205/201002051/201003/t20100315_61879.html
14 胡鞍钢、管清友：《中国应对全球气候变化》,北京：清华大学出版社,2009年版,第141页。
15 David Held, "Democratic Accountability and Political Effectiveness from a Cosmopolitan Perspective," Government and Opposition, Vol.39, Issue 2,2004, p.377.
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[1]国际能源网：http://www.in-en.com/
[2]国家海洋局：www.soa.gov.cn
[3]国家气候中心：http://ncc.cma.gov.cn/cn/
[4]世界自然基金会中国网站：http://www.wwfchina.org/
[5]水利部因对气候变化研究中心：http://rccc.nhri.cn/
[6]中国国家能源局：http://nyj.ndrc.gov.cn/
[7]中国国家统计局：http://www.stats.gov.cn/
[8]中国环保部：http://www.zhb.gov.cn/
[9]中国环境网：http://www.cenews.com.cn/
[10]中国环境与发展国际合作委员会：http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/node_7039793.htm
[11]中国能源法律网：http://www.energylaw.org.cn/
[12]中国能源网：http://www.china5e.com/
[13]中国气候变化进展研究：http://www.climatechange.cn/
[14]中国气候变化网：http://www.ipcc.cma.gov.cn/cn/
[15]中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/index.asp
[16]中国气象网局：http://www.cma.gov.cn/
[17]中国清洁发展机制网：http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/web/
[18]中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心：http://www.rcsd.org.cn/index.php
[19]中国新能源网：http://www.ncwcnergy.org.cn/
[20]中美清洁能源论坛：http://www.cleanenergyforum.org/index.cfm
[1]国际能源机构(IEA):www.iea.org
[2]国际能源组织温室气体研究项目：www.ieagreen.org.uk
[3]联合国环境规划署(UNEP):www.unep.org
[4]联合国环境规划署能源与环境合作中心(UCCEE):www.uccee.org
[5]联合国开发计划署(UNDP):www.undp.org
[6]联合国贸易与发展大会(UNCTAD):温室气体排放交易：http://r0.unctad.org/ghg
[7]联合国气候变化框架公约清洁发展机制：http://unfccc.int/cdm
[8]联合国气候变化框架公约组织：www.unfccc.int
[9]美国发展中心：http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/energy
[10]美国国国务院海洋和国际环境科学事务局：http://www.state.gov/g/ocs/
[11]美国国家海洋和大气管理局：http://www.noaa.gov/indcx.html
[12]美国国家航天局气候变化项目：http://climate.nasa.gov/
[13]美国环保局：http://www.epa.gov/
[14]美国加州环保局空气资源委员会：http://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm
[15]美国能源部：www.energy.gov
[16]美国气候变化研究信息办公室：http://www.gcrio.org/
[17]美国全球变化研究计划：http://www.globalchange.gov/
[18]美国全球气候变化科学研究计划：www.climatescience.gov
[19]皮尔全球气候变化中心：http://www.pewclimate.org/
[20]气候变化和能源再利用组织：www.climateark.org
[21]气候变化行动网：www.climnet.org
[22]气候技术倡议(CTI):www.climatetech.net
[23]乔治·梅森大学气候变化传媒中心：http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/index.cfm
[24]全球发展中心气候变化项目：http://www.cgdev.org/section/topics/climate_change
[25]全球公共政策研究所：http://www.gppi.net/
[26]全球环境基金组织(GEF):www.gefweb.org
[27]世界气象组织(WMO):www.wmo.ch
[28]世界银行：www.worldbank.org
[29]世界资源研究所：http://www.wri.org/
[30]廷德尔气候变化研究中心：http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/index.html
[31]英国气候变化委员会：http://www.theccc.org.uk/
[32]政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC):www.ipcc.ch
3 有关恐怖主义的详细研究,参见王逸舟等著《恐怖主义溯源：中国人的视角》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2010年版；张家栋：《恐怖主义论》,北京：时事出版社,2007年版；张家栋：《全球化时代的恐怖主义及其治理》,是海：上海三联书店2007年版。
4 关于非传统安全的详细介绍,参见陆忠伟主编：《非传统安全论》,北京：时事出版社,2003年版：余潇枫等：《非传统安全概论》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2006年版。
5 有关全球公共卫生治理的研究,参见晋继勇：《全球公共卫生治理中的国际机制分析》,复旦大学2009年博士论文,未出版。
6 联合国开发计划署：《2003年人类发展报告》,北京：中国财政经济出版社2003年版,第44页。
7 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurrity in the World 2004, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla,00100 Rome, Italy,2004转移自李少军：《当代全球问题》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2006年版,第139页。
8 蔡拓：《全球问题与当代国际关系》,天津：天津人民出版社,2002年版,第116页。
9 Robert O. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, pp.3-4.
10 转引自Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge press, 1996, p.17.
11 Svante Arrhenius, "On the influence of carbonic acid in the air on the temperature of the ground", Philosophical Magazine, No.41,1896, p.266.转引自Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge press,1996, p.19-20.
12 Svante Arrhenius, Words in the Making:the Evolution of the Universe, New York:Harper Press, 1908, p.54.
13 Revelle, R. and Suess, H., "Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean, and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2, during the past decades", Tellus, Vol9, No.18,1957, p.19.
14 参见该组织官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
15 参见IPCC第四次综合评估报告：http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
16 潘家华、凯利·西蒙斯·加拉格尔：《全球变暖——呼唤节制之路》,载[美]理查德·罗斯科兰斯、顾国良主编：《力量与克制：中美关系的共同愿景》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2010年版,第125页。
17 IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2007/weo_2007.pdf, p.199.
18 庄贵阳、陈迎：《国际气候制度与中国》,北京：世界知识出版社,2005年版,第250-251页。
19 "Remarks of President Barack Obama:Address to Joint Session of Congress," Feb.24,2009. http://www.whitehouse.gov/thepress_office/
20 美国知名中国问题专家李侃如(Kenneth Lieberthal)特别强调中美两国在全球关键问题上(例如气候变化)进行合作对双边关系和全球问题治理的重要性。参见李侃如＆戴维·桑德罗(David Sandalow):《客服中美气候变化合作的障碍》,美国布鲁金斯学会约翰·桑顿中国中心专题论文系列一号,2009年1月,第9页。Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/～/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/01_climate_change_lieberthal sandalow/ 01 climate_change_cn.pdf
21 Elinor Ostrom, Governing the Commons:The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action, New York:Cambridge University Press,1990, p.2.
22 Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, Vol.168,1968, pp.1243-1248.
23 曼瑟尔·奥尔森著,陈郁等译：《集体行动的逻辑》,上海：上海人民出版社,1995年版,第2页。
24 哈丁和奥尔森的集体行动的困境实际上是从联合供给联合消费之类的公共物品角度出发的,但也有的公共物品是以个体供给但联合消费形式或联合供给但却是以个体消费形式表现出来。不同的供给——消费表现形式面临的问题和解决的途径是有所不同的,这是研究全球公共事务合作问题所不能忽视和混淆的重要方面。参见：苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社,2000年版,第14页
25 Paul G. Harris ed., Climate Change and American Foreign Policy, New York:St. Martin's Press, 2000.另外两本著作是：Paul G. Harris ed., The Environment, International Relations and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington, D.C.:Georgetown University Press,2001. Paul G. Harris ed., International Equity and Global Environmental Politics:Power and Principles in U.S. Foreign Policy, Aldershot, Burlington USA, Singapore, Sydney:Ashgate Publishing Limited.2001.
26 Lyn Jaggard, Climate Change:Politics in Europe:Germany and the International Relations of the Environment. London:Tauris Academic Studies Press.2007.
27 Loren R. Cass, The Failures of American and European Climate Policy:International Norms, Domestic Politics and Unachievable Commitments, New York:State University of New York Press.2006. 28 Shizuka Oshitani, Global Warming Policy in Japan and Britain:Interactions between Institutions and Issue Characteristics, Manchester:Manchester University Press,2006.
29 Shizuka Oshitani, Global Warming Policy in Japan and Britain:Interactions between Institutions and Issue Characteristics, Manchester:Manchester University Press,2006, p.7.
30 Arild Moe and Kristian Tangen, The Kyoto Mechanisms and Russian Climate Politics, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs,2000.
31 Michael Grubb, Anna Korppoo and Jacqueline Karas, Russia And the Kyoto Protocol: Opportunities And Challenges, London:Chatham House,2006.
32 Marjan Peeters and Kurt Dekelelaere eds., EU Climate Change Policy:the Challenge of New Regulatory Initiatives, Cornwall:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2006.
Paul Harris ed., Europe and Global Climate Change:Politics, Foreign Policy and Regional Cooperation, Cornwall:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2007.
34 Irving M. Mintzer and J. Amber Leonard ed., Negotiating Climate Change:The Inside Story of the Rio Convention, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1994.
35 Stern Nilsson and David Pitt, Protecting the Atmosphere:The Climate Change Convention and Its Context, London:Earthscan Publications Limited Press,1994.
36 Michael Grubb with Christiaan Vrolijk and Duncan Brack, The Kyoto Protocol:A Guide and Assessment, London:The Royal Institute of International Affairs & Earth-scan Publication Ltd,
1999. Sebastian Oberthur and Hermann E. Ott, The Kyoto Protocol:International Climate Policy for the 21st Century, Berlin:Springer,1999.
38 Robert K. Dixon ed., The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) Pilot:experiences and lessons learned, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers.1999.
39 Peter d. Cameron and Donald Zillman ed., Kyoto:from Principles to Practice, the Hague: Kluwer Law International Press.2001.
David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton and Oxford:Princeton University Press,2001, p.viii.
41 David G Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton and Oxford:Princeton University Press,2001, p.ix.
42 David G Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton and Oxford:Princeton University Press,2001, pp.110-114.
43 Warwick J. McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen, Climate Change Policy after Kyoto:Blueprint for a Realistic Approach, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institute Press,2002.
44 Farhana Yamin and Joanna Depledge, The International Climate Change Regime:A Guide to Rules, Institutes and Procedures, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2004.
45 Velma I. Grover ed., Climate Change:Five Years after Kyoto, New Hampshire:Sciense Publishers,2004.
46 Olav Schram Stokke, Jon Hovi and Geir Ulfstein, Implementing the Climate Regime: International Compliance, London:Earthscan Press,2005.
W. Th. Douma, L. Massai and M. Montini ed., The Kyoto Protocol and Beyond:Legal and Policy Challenges of Climate Change, the Hague:2007.这两次会议分别是于2006年6月在意大利锡耶大学和2007年3 月在荷兰海牙阿瑟尔研究所(T.M.C. Asser Institute)
Ernesto Zedillo ed., Global Warming:Looking Beyond Kyoto, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2008.
Donald A. Brown, American Heat:Ethical Problems with the United States'Response to Global Warming, Oxford:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,2002.
50 Tom Athanaslou and Paul Baer, Dead Heat:Global Justice and Global Warming, New York: Seven Stories Press,2002.
51 Barry Holden, Democracy and Global Warming, London:Continuum,2002.
52 Etienne Vermeersch ed., Reading the Kyoto Protocol:Ethical Aspects of the Convention on Climate Change, Delft:Eburon Academic Publishers,2005.
53 W. Neil Adger, Jouni Paavola, Saleemul Huq and M. J. Mace ed., Fairness in Adaptation to Climate Change, Cambridge:the MIT Press,2006.
34 Edward A. Page, Climate Change, Justice and Future Generations, Chltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2006.
55 J. Timmons Roberts and Bradley C. Parks, A Climate of Injustice:Global Inequality, North-South Politics and Climate Policy, Cambridge:MIT Press,2007.
56 World Resources Institute in collaboration with the United Nations Environment Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, and the World Bank, World Resources 1996-97, New York:Oxford University Press,1996, pp.328-330.
57 Thomas R. Caster, Turning off the Heat:Why America Must Double Energy Efficiency to Save Money and Reduce Global Warming, New York:Prometheus Books,1998.
Behram N. Kursunoglu, Stephan L. Mintz and Arnold Perlmutter ed., Global Warming and Energy Polity, New York:Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers,2001.
Jon Birger Skjarscth and Tora Skodvin, Climate Change and the Oil Industry:Common Problem, Varying Strategies, Manchester:Manchester University Press,2003.
60 William Sweet, Kicking the Carbon Habit:Global Warming and the Case for Renewable and Nuclear Energy, New York:Columbia University Press,2006.
61 John Deutch, Anne Lauvergeon and Widhyawan Prawiraatmadja, Energy Security and Climate Change, Brussels:The Trilateral Commission,2007.
62 Duncan Brack, Michael Grubb and Craig Windram, International Trade and Climate Change Policies, London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,2000.
63 Michael A. Toman, Climate Change:Economics and Policy, Washington:Resources for the Future,2001.
64 Carlo Carraro and Christian Egenhofer, Climate and Policy,. Cheltenham:Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,2007.
65 Michael H. Glantz, The Role of Regional Organizations in the Context of Climate Change, Berlin:Springer-Verlag,1994.
66 Peter Newell, Climate for Change:Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2000.
67 Meinhard Doelle, From Hot Air to Action:Climate Change, Compliance and the Future of International Environmental Law, Toronto:Thomson Canada Limited,2005.
68 David Freestone and Charlotte Streck ed., Legal Aspects of Implementing the Kyoto Protocol Mechanisms:Making Kyoto Work,2005.
69 关于气候变化与国家安全的研究报告和论文,参见Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (2003); Joshua W. Busby:Climate Change and National Security:An Agenda for Action (2007); "Climate Change and International Security", Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council(2008); Halvard Buhaug, Nils Petter Gleditsch and Ole Magnus Theisen:Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict (2008); Oli Brown and Alec Crawford:Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa(2008); Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix:The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change (2007); John Podesta and Peter Ogden, "The Security Implications of Climate Change," The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007-08, pp.115-138; Busby J W., "Who cares about the weather? Climate Change and U.S. National Security," Security Studies,2008,17 (3):468-504; Salehyan I, "From climate change to conflict? no consensus yet," Journal of Peace Research,2008,45 (3):315-326; Paris R. Human security:paradigm shift or hot air? [C]//Brown M E, Cote O R, Jr. New Global Dangers:Changing Dimensions of International Security. London:The MIT Press,2004; Climate Change & Security, Conference Report. CERI, Paris-20 January 2009; Heinz-Dieter Jopp and Roland Kaestner. Climate Change and Security in the 21st Century; Dr. Lassi Heininen:Climate Change causing Changes in Problem Definition on Security, The 49th Annual Convention of ISA San Francisco, USA, March 26th-29th of 2008; Clionadh Raleigh and Henrik Urdal:Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict, Paper presented to the 47th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, CA,22-25 March 2006; Ragnhild Nordas & Nils Petter Gleditsch:Climate Conflict:Common Sense or Nonsense? (2005); Michael C. Maccracken, Eric J. Barron, David R. Easterling, Benjamin S. Felzer, and Thomas R. Karl, "Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S. National Assessment," American Meteorological Society, December 2003; The CAN Corporation:National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007), http://www.npr.org/documents/2007/apr/security climate.pdf Fingar T. National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 [R/OL], http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20080625_testimony.pdf
张海滨：《美国关于气候变化对国家安全影响的研究述评》,载《气候变化研究进展》,2009年第3期,第145-150页。
70 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall:An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (2003). http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
71 The CAN Corporation:National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (2007). http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
72 http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
73 Mark J. Lacy, Security and Climate Change:International Relations and the Limits of Realism, Abingdon:Routledge 2005.
74 Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008.
75 Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008, pp.217-220.
76 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆,2003年版。
77 潘家华、庄贵阳、陈迎：《减缓气候变化的经济分析》,北京：气象出版社,2003年版。
78 庄贵阳、陈迎：《国际气候制度与中国》,北京：世界知识出版社,2005年版。
79 林云华：《国际气候合作与排放权交易制度研究》,北京：中国经济出版社,2007年版。
80 杨兴：《<气候变化框架公约研究>——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社,2007年版。
81 薄燕：《国际谈判与国内政治：美国与<京都议定书>谈判的实例》,上海：上海三联书店,2007年版。
82 陈刚：《<京都议定书>与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社,2008年版。
83 张利军：《中美关于应对气候变化的协商与合作》,北京：世界知识出版社,2008年版。
84 庄贵阳、朱仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社,2009年版。
85 杨洁勉主编：《世界气候外交和中国的应对》,北京：时事出版社,2009年版。86 唐颖侠：《国际气候变化条约的遵守机制研究》,北京：人民出版社,2009年版。
87 唐张侠：《国际气候变化条约的遵守机制研究》,北京：人民出版社,2009年版,第269页。
88 于宏源：《环境变化和权势转移：制度、博弈和应对》,上海：上海人民出版社,2010年版。
89 除了本文直接提及的《气候变化与中国国家安全》一书外,国内学者王丹还专门就气候变化对中国的粮食安全的影响和对策进行了研究。限于篇幅,本文不再赘述。参见王丹：《气候变化对中国粮食安全的影响和对策研究》,武汉：湖北人民出版社,2011年版。
90 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社,2010年版。
91 张焕波：《中国、美国和欧盟气候政策分析》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010年版。
92 陈鹤：《气候危机与中国应对——全球暖化背景下的中国气候软战略》,北京：人民出版社,2010年版,第209页。
93 庄贵阳：《低碳经济：气候变化背景下中国的发展之路》,北京：气象出版社,2007年版。
94 张坤民、潘家华、崔大鹏主编：《低碳经济论》北京：中国环境科学出版社,2008年版。
95 例如,《国家利益的科学论证与国际政治妥协——联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(关于减缓气候变化社会经济分析评估报告)述评》、《减缓气候变化的经济与政治影响及其地区差异》、《试析国际气候谈判中的国家集团及其影响》、《环境容量与能源创新——国际气候变化谈判的二元博弈视角》等。
96 例如,《<京都议定书>的前途及其国际经济和政治影响》、《后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考》、
97 例如,《中国与欧洲在能源和气候安全领域的相互依存性》、《陆克文政府气候变化与能源政策评析——兼论其对中国的启示》、《美国温室气体减排新方案及其影响》、《日本应对气候变化的战略、措施与困难》等。
98 例如,《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》、《气候变化国际制度议价和中国》、《中国与国际环境机制：从国际履约角度进行的分析》、《中国应对气候变化谈判的几点思考》、《<联合国气候变化框架公约>与中国气候变化政策协调的发展》、《国际制度和中国气候变化软能力建设——基于两次问卷调查的结果分析》等。
99 阎学通、孙学峰,《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京：人民出版社,2007年版,第20-21页。
100 朱明权：《政策、理论和历史的三位一体：也谈国际关系的研究方法》,载于苏长和等主编：《国际关系研究：理论、视角与方法》,上海：文汇出版社,2002年版,第287-301页。
101 陈波等编著：《社会科学方法论》,北京：中国人民大学出版社,1989年版,第121-122页。
102 [美]吴量福：《政治学研究方法与论文撰写》,天津：天津人民出版社,2007年版,第6页。
103 阎学通、孙学峰：《国际关系研究实用方法》,北京：人民出版社,2007年版,第118页。
104 李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第128页。
105 李少军：《国际关系学研究方法》,北京：中国社会科学出版社,2008年版,第99页。
106 参见资中筠：《理论创新从研究新问题中来》,载《世界经济与政治》(卷首语),2003年第3期。
1 Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations:the Struggle for Power and Peace, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc.,1973, p.8-27.有关政治现实主义的论述,还可参见Roger D. Spegele, Political Realism in International Theory, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996. 2 Joseph M. Grieco, "Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation:A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism", in David A. Baldwin eds., Neorealism and neoliberalism:the contemporary debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993, p.116.
3 [美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著,门洪华译：《权力与相互依赖》(第三版),北京：北京大学出版社,2002年版,第3页。
4 这方面的代表作有：Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, 1984; Robert 0 · Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1986; Kenneth Oye, eds., Cooperation under Anarchy, Princeton, N.J.:Princeton University Press,1986; Robert O · Keohane, International Institutions and State Power, Boulder:Westview,1989; David A·Baldwin, ed, Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993. Lisa L. Martin & Beth A. Simmons, ed., International Institutions:An International Organization Reader, Cambridge:MIT Press,2001.
5 Lisa L. Martin and Beth A. Simmons eds., International Institutions:An InternationalOrganization Reader, Boston:The MIT Press,2001, p.1.
6 陈晓进：《国际制度的概念辨析》,载《国际观察》2000年第6期,第6页
7 Charles Pcntland, "Building Global Institutions", in Gavin Boyd and Charles Pentland, eds., Issues in Global Politics, London:the Free Press,1981, pp.326-365.
8 Robert O. Keohane, "International Institutions:Can Interdependence Work?", Foreign Policy, No.110, Spring 1998, p.82.
9 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海： 上海人民出版社2009年版,第63-66页。
10 罗竹风主编：《汉语大词典》(第二卷,上册,第2版),上海：汉语大词典出版社2001年版,第664-665页。
11 中国社会科学院语言研究所词典编辑室编：《现代汉语词典》(增补本),商务印书馆2002年版,第1622页。
12 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第61页。
13 [美]杰克·谱拉诺等著,胡杰译：《政治学分析辞典》,北京：中国社会科学出版社1986年版,第77页。需要说明的是,本词典属于早期译作,其将institutionsi译成了机构。为了与当下的研究接轨,本文一律将英文中的institutions 译成制度。
14 Frank Bealey, The Blackwell Dictionary of Political Science, Oxford:Blackwell Publishing Ltd.,1999, p.166.
15 [美]罗伯特·默顿：《制度化的社会逻辑》,载《中国社会学刊》(台湾),1988年第12期。 转引自陈晓进：《国际制度的概念辨析》,载《国际观察》2000年第6期,第7页。
16 Webster's Third New International Dictionary, Springfield:Merrian-Webster Inc., Publishers, 1993, p.1911.
17 参见王杰主编：《国际机制论》,北京：新华出版社2002年版,第2页；王逸舟：《当代国际政治析论》,上海：上海人民出版社1995年版,第369页。
18 Susan Strange, "Cave! Hic Dragones:A Critique of Regime Analysis", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2,1982, pp.344-345.
19 Ernst B. Hass, "On Systems and International Regimes", World Politics, Vol.27, No.2,1975, Pp.147-174.
20 John G. Ruggie, "International Responses to Technology:Concept and Trends," International Organization, Vol.29, No.3,1975, pp.557-583.
21 Oran R. Young, "International Regimes:Problems of Concept Formation", World Politics, Vol. 32, No.3 (Apr.,1980), pp.331-356.
22 Stephen D. Krasner, "Structural Causes and Regime Consequences:Regimes as Intervening Variables", International Organization, Vol.36, No.2,1982, p.186.该文后来被收入克拉斯纳主编的《国际机制》一书中,参见Stephen D. Krasner eds., International Regimes, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1983, pp.1-22.
23 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1984, p.64.基欧汉在《国际制度与国家权力》一书中将国际机制进一步定义为“具有明确规则,得到政府同意,适合于国际关系中特定领域的制度”。参见Robert Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.4.这种解释又被称为国际机制定义中的“简单定义”,因为这种定义方式只使用“规则”一个因素来描述国际机制的规范系统,与克拉斯纳的定义形成对比,后者因此也被称为“复杂的定义”。关于这方面的论述,参见Andreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, Volker Rittberger, Theories of International Regimes, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1997, pp.11-14.
24 Oran R. Young, "International Regimes:Toward a New Theory of Institutions", World Politics, Vol.39, No.1,1986, p.106.
Oran Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1989, p.32.
26 [美]道格拉斯·诺斯著,刘守英译：《制度、制度变迁与经济绩效》.上海：上海人民出版社1994年版,第5-6页。
27 张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第156页。
2“这山被称之为国际组织研究的第一波浪潮,参见苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,前言第2页。
29 Melquiades J. Gamboa eds., A Dictionary of International Law and Diplomacy, New York: Oceana Publications,1973, p.156.
30 Union of International Association, Yearbook of International Organization, Union of International Association,1990/91,28th edition:pp.16-45.
31 刘金质、梁守德、杨淮生主编：《国际政治大辞典》,北京：中国社会科学出版社1994年版,第31页。
32 参见Yearbook of International Organization
33 不可否认的是,早期的国际组织带有霸权国家,尤其是美国谋求控制其他国家的工具色彩,有学者称之为“制度霸权”。参见门洪华：《霸权之翼：美国国际制度战略》,北京：北京大学出版社2005年版。
34 张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第131页。35 Robert 0. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.3.
Robert 0. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power:Essays in International Relations Theory, Boulder:Westview Press,1989, p.3-4.
37 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一咱制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第85-86页。
38 John Gerard Ruggie, "International responses to technology:Concepts and trends", International Organization, Vol.29,1975, pp.569-574.
John Gerard Ruggie, "International responses to technology:Concepts and trends", International Organization, Vol.29,1975, p.573.
40 田野：《国际制度与国家自主性——一项研究框架》,载《国际观察》,2008年第2期,第26页。
41 张宇燕、李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第137-138页。
42 Hedley Bull, "How is Order Maintained in World Politics", in Oran R. Young eds., The International Political Economy and International Institutions (Volume Ⅱ), Cheltenham, UK: Brookfield, Vt.:E. Elgar Pub. Co.,1996, p.267.
43 有关国家主权理论的详细研究,参见肖佳灵：《国家主权论》,北京：时事出版社2003年版。
44 Ian Hurd, "Legitimacy and Authority in International Politics", International Organization, Vol. 53, No.2 (Spring,1999), p.393.
45 Robert O. Keohane, "The Theory of Hegemonic Stability and Changes in International Economic Regimes,1967-1977", in Ole R. Holsti, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alexander L. George eds., Change in the international system, Boulder, Colo.:Westview Press,1980, p.132.实际上,“霸权稳定论”这个词最早就是出自该文章。对霸权稳定论的批评性文章,参见Duncan Snidal, "The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory", International Organization, Vol.39, No.4 (Autumn,1985), pp.579-614.
46 参见Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1981.
47 参见张宇燕,李增刚：《国际经济政治学》,上海：上海人民出版社2008年版,第142页。
48 Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action:Public Goods and the Theory of Groups, Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1971, p.51.
49 Hedley Bull, The anarchical society:a study of order in world politics (3rd edition), New York: Columbia University Press,2002, p.13.
50 Arthur Stein, "Coordination and Collaboration:Regimes in an Anarchic World", in David Baldwin eds., Neorealism and Neoliberalism:the Contemporary Debate, New York:Columbia University Press,1993, p.47.
51 “囚徙困境”博弈最早由Merrill Flood和Melvin Dresher于1950年提出并由A.W. Tucker最终界定。参见Robert Axelrod, The Evolution of Cooperation, New York:Basic Books, Inc., Publishers,1984, p.3-24.
52 Kenneth A. Oye, "Explaining Cooperation under Anarchy:Hypothesis and Strategies", in Kenneth A. Oye eds., Cooperation under Anarchy, Princeton:Princeton University Press,1986, p.20.
53 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1984, p.101.
54[冰]思拉思·埃格特森：《新制度经济学》,吴经帮等译,北京：商务印书馆1996年版,第16-17页。
55 Todd Sandier and Jon Cauley, "The Design of Supernational Structure:an Economic Perspective", in Todd Sandier eds., The Theory and Structure of International Political Economy, Boulder:Westview,1980, p.42.
56 Robert Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1984, p.107-108.
57 参见Michael Barnett and Martha Finnemore, Rules for the World:International Organizations in Global Politics, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,2004, pp.121-135.
Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy:Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.7.
59 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4 (Autumn,1978), pp.881-912.
60 其中的代表作品有Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-state Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995. Robert O. Keohane and Helen V. Milner, eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
61 秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第5页；吴征宇：《关于层次分析的若干问题》,载《欧洲》,2001年第6期,第1-6页。
Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959.
63 Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959, pp.159-223.
64秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第5页。
65 参见Morton Kaplan, System and process in international politics, New York:Wiley,1957.
66 Barry Buzan, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations Reconsidered", in Ken Booth and Steve Smith, eds., International Relations Theory Today, Cambridge:Dolity Press, 1995, p.201. 57 J. David Singer, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.l,1961, pp.77-92.
68 J. David Singer, "The Level of Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, p.89.
69 倪世雄等著：《当代西方国际关系理论》,上海：复旦大学出版社2001年版,第100页。
70 James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy, London:Frances Printer,1980, pp.115-169.
71 Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics:A Menu for Choice, New York:W. H. Freeman, 1992, pp.11-17.
Andrew Moravcsik, "The New Liberalism'", in Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal, eds. The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford:Oxford University Press,2008, p.249.
73 J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, pp.81-82.
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics, Reading, Massachusetts:Addison-Wesley, 1979, pp.93-97.
75 J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", World Politics, Vol.14, No.1,1961, p.80.
76 Kenneth N. Waltz, "Reflections on Theory of International Politics:A Response to My Critics", in Robert O. Keohane, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics, New York:Columbia University Press 1986, p.340.
J. David Singer, "The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations", p.83;秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》,载《欧洲》,1998年第3期,第9-10页。
78 Glenn D. Paige, The Korean decision, June 24-30,1950, New York:Free Press,1968.
Graham Allison, Philip Zelikow, Essence of decision:explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis,2nd ed, New York:Longman,1999.
80 参见Andrew Moravcsik, "Taking Preferences Seriously:A Liberal Theory of International Politics", International Organization, Vol.51, No.4,1997, pp.522-523.
81 左希迎：《层次分析的反思与研究领域的拓展》,载《世界经济与政治》2008年第7期, 第63页。
82 朱天飚：《比较政治经济学》,北京：北京大学出版社2006年版,第8页。
83 王逸舟：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第510页。
84 在英语言文献中,层次互动或跨层光华分析(cross-level-analysis)有诸多表达方式,如links between/interaction between/connection between/interdependence of international and domestic politics等。参见吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89页。
85 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第88页。
86 参见吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89-90页。
Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games," International Organization, Vol.42, No.3,1988, pp.427-460.
88 薄燕：《双层次博弈理论：内在逻辑及其评价》,载《现代国际关系》,2003年第6期,第54页。
89 Peter B. Evans, "Building an Integrative Approach to International and Domestic Politics: Reflections and Projections," in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam ed., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.397.
90 Jeffrey W. Knopf; "Beyond Two-Level Games:Domestic-International Interaction in the Intermediate-Range NuclearForces Negotiations," International Organization, Vol.47, No.4, (Autumn 1993), pp.599-600. Daniel W. Drezner, "Introduction; The Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions," in Daniel W. Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:the Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions, Michigan:the University of Michigan Press,2003, p.4-7. 91 James E. Dougherty, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr, Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, New York:Longman,1997, pp.492-493.
92 后续的研究成果主要是论文集《双面外交：国际淡判和国内政治》,参见Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D. Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993.
93 Andrew Moravcsik, "Introduction:Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining," in Peter B. Evans, Harold K. Jacobson, Robert D.Putnam eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.5-9.
94 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.881-912
95 Kenneth N. Waltz, Ma, the State and War:A Theoretical Analysis, New York:Columbia University Press,1959.
96 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.881.李巍：《国际政治经济学的演进逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》,2009年第1期,第73页。
97 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.881.
98 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, p.911.
99 苏长如：《国内——国际互动与中国对外关系展开》, 载《教学与研究》2009年第10期,第38页。
100 曲博：《国内政治、国际关系与国际政治经济学研究》,载《世界经济与政治》,2006年第2期,第69页
101 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第89页。
102 李巍：《国际政治经济学的演进逻辑》,载《世界经济与政治》,2009年第10期,第77页。
103 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.881-911.
104 田野：《国际制度对国内政治的影响机制——来自理性选择制度主义的解释》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第7页。
105 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第93页。
106 Daniel W. Drezner, "Introduction; The Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions," in Daniel W. Drezner ed., Locating the Proper Authorities:the Interaction of International and Domestic Institutions, Michigan:the University of Michigan Press,2003, p.9.需要指出的是,全球化对各国的影响是不平衡的。拥有广阔的国内市场和强大的安全力量的国家对全球市场变动的脆弱性较小,而欠发达国家由于缺乏独立的资源来应对全球化的冲击,因此更倾向于寻求国际组织的支持。
107 Andrew Moravcsik, "Introduction:Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Relations", in Peter Evans, Harold Jacobson and Robert Putnam, eds., Double-Edged Diplomacy:International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, California:University of California Press,1993, p.30.
108 Helen Milner, "Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics:Research Frontiers," in Helen Milner and Andrew Moravcsik, eds., Power, Interdependence, and Nonstate Actors in World Politics, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2009, pp.4-5.
109 Lisa L. Martin and Beth A. Simmons, "Theories and Empirical Studies of International Institutions," International Organization, Vol.52, No.4, pp.747-749.
110 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第95页。
111 国际上致力于这方面研究的学者主要有彼得·卡赞斯坦(Peter J. Katzenstein),查尔斯·蒂(Charles Tilly)、彼得·霍尔(Peter A. Hall)、罗伯特·普特南(Robert D. Putnam)、彼得·古雷维奇(Peter Gourevitch)、罗纳德·罗戈夫斯基(Ronald Rogowsky)、罗伯特·基欧汉(Robert O. Keohane)、海伦·米尔纳(Helen Milner)、乔安妮·高娃(Joanne Gowa)贝思·西蒙斯(Beth Simmons)、利萨·马丁(Lisa L. Martin)迈克尔·西斯考克斯((Michael J. Hiscox)等。
112 可参见Peter Gourevitch, "Domestic Politics and International Relations". Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, Handbook of International Relations, London:Sage Publications,2002, p.321. Jeffry A. Frieden, and Lisa L. Martin, "International Political Economy: Global and Domestic Interactions", Ira Katznelson, and Helen V. Milner, eds., Political Science: the State of the Discipline, New York:W. W. Norton &Company, Inc.,2002, p.120.
113 [美]非利普斯·夏夫利著：《政治科学研究方法》(第六版),新知译,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第18页。
114 吴其胜：《国际关系研究中的跨层次分析》,载《外交评论》2008年第1期,第94页。
115 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.20.
116 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic
Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, pp.454.
117 李巍：《制度变迁与美国国际经济政策》,上海：上海人民出版社2010年版,第63页。
118 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》,载《美国研究》2003年第4期,第117页。
119 Pamela S. Chasek, "U.S. Policy in the UN Environmental Area:Powerful Laggard or Constructive Leader?" International Environmental Agreements:Politics, Law and Economics, Vol.7, No.4,2007, p.366.
120 Glen Sussman, "The USA and Global Environmental Policy:Domestic Constraints on Effective Leadership," International Political Science Review, Vol.25, No.4,2004, pp.349-369.
121 李志永,张月英：《国际制度的国内影响》，载《国际关系学学报》2010年第2期，第8-9页。
1:2 Peter Gourevitch, "The Second Image Reversed:The International Sources of Domestic Politics", International Organization, Vol.32, No.4,1978, pp.901-902.
123 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, p.455. 124 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.23-25.
125 有关国内结构类型与功能的详细论述，参见林民旺、朱立群：《国际规范的国内化化：国内结构的影响及传播机制》，载《当代亚太》，20ll年第1期，第136-160页。
126 Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Ideas do not Float Freely:Transnational Coalitions, Domestic Structures, and the End of the Cold War", International Organization, Vol.48, No.2 (Spring, 1994), p.187.
127 James Rosenau, "Toward the Study of National2International Linkage", in James Rosenau ed., Linkage Politics, New York:The Free Press,1969, p.45.
128 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》，载《美国研究》2003年第4期，第120页。
129 苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治——比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》，载《美国研究》2003年第4 期，第121页。
130 参见Joseph S. Nye, Jr., "Nuclear leaning and U.S-Soviet Security Regimes", International Organization, Vol.41, No.3,1987, pp.371-402; Ethan A. Nadelmann, "Global Prohibition Regimes:The Evolution of Norms in International Society", International Organization, Vol.44, No.4,1990, pp.479-526; John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior: Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.819-855.
131 参见Martha Finnemore. National Interests in International Society, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1996. Martha Finnemore, "International Organizations as Teachers of Norms:The United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization and Science Policy", International Organization, Vol.47, No.4 (Autumn,1993), pp.565-597.
132 参见 Robert Gilpin, Global Political Economy:Understanding the International Economic Order, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, pp.300-302.黄河：《跨国公司与当代国际关系》，上海：上海人民出版社2008年版，第六章。
Joseph S. Nye, Jr., "Nuclear leaning and U.S-Soviet Security Regimes", International Organization, Vol.41, No.3,1987, pp.371-402; John S. Duffield, "International Regimes and Alliance Behavior:Explaining NATO Conventional Force Levels", International Organization, Vol.46, No.4,1992, pp.819-855; Oran R. Young, International Cooperation:Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment, Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1989.
134 Andrew Cortell and James Davis, "How Do International Institutions Matter:The Domestic Impact of International Rules and Norms", International Studies Quarterly, Vol.40,1996, pp.451-478.
135 Herbert C. Kelman, "Compliance, Identification, and Internalization:Three Processes of Attitude Change", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol.2, No.l, Studies on Attitudes and Communication (Mar.,1958), p.53.
136 Ernest Q. Campbell, "The Internalization of Moral Norms", Sociometry, Vol.27, No.4,1964, p.392.
137 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,前言第6页。
138 唐永胜、徐弃郁：《寻求复杂的平衡：国际安全机制与主权国家的参与》,北京：世界知识出版社2004年版,第32-40页。
139 Andrew P. Cortell, James W. Davis, J r, "Understanding the Domestic Impact of International Norms:A Research Agenda", International Studies Review, Vol.2, No.1 (Spring,2000), pp.70-72.
140 于宏源：《国际制度与政府决策转型》,载《国际政治科学》2007年第1期,第37页。
141 Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy Making: Broading Perspectives and Policies But Only to a Point," in David Lampton, eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.236.
142 李志永,张月英：《国际制度的国内影响》,载《国际关系学院学报》2010年第2期,第10页。
143 Frederick Schauer, "The Politics and Incentives of Legal Transplantation", in Joseph S. Nye Jr., John D. Donahue eds., Governance in a Globalizing World, Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2000, p.253.
144 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, Dec., 1998, p.809.
145 中华人民共和国外交部政策研究室编：《中国外交》,北京：世界知识出版社2003年版,第66-67页
146 参见梁长平：《从“强制遵约”到“自主遵约”：关于联邦德国对<不扩散核武器条约>的政策研究》,复旦大学2009年博士论文,未出版。
1 该组织的官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
2国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室、中国21世纪议程管理中心：《全球气候变化——人类面临的挑战》,北京：商务印书馆,2005年版,第16页。
3 朱炳海：《气象学词典》,上海：上海辞书出版社,1985年版,第180页。
4 朱炳海：《气象学词典》,上海：上海辞书出版社,1985年版,第123页。
5 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.)], Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.368.
6 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
7 潘家华、庄贵阳、陈迎：《减缓气候变化的经济分析》,北京：气象出版社,2003年版,第21页。
8 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.234.
9 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.206.
10 英国学者雷特·哈丁(Garrett Hardin)在1968年即用“公地的悲剧”(The Tragedy of the Commons)揭示了环境的负外部性问题。哈丁认为,由于环境资源的非排他性和竞争性特点,使得人们有动机在他人获准使用该资源之前汲取它所能带来的好处。其结果是,与此社会最优情形相比,人们过度地使用了该资源。参见Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons", Science, Vol.168,1968, pp.1243-1248.
11 N.Gregory Mankiw, Principles of Economics (5th), South-Western, Div of Thomson Learning, 2008, p.213.
12 Spencer R. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 2003, p.2-3.
Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.3.
Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.4.
Spencer R. Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming, Cambridge:Harvard University Press, 2003, p.3-4.
Svante Arrhenius, "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground", Philosophical Magazine,41,1896, pp.237-276.
Svante Arrhenius, Words in the Making:the Evolution of the Universe, New York:Harper Press, 1908.
18 所谓“间冰期”是指两个冰期之间气候比较温l暖的时期。此时高纬度地区的大冰盖面积缩小,中、低纬度山岳冰川大规模后退,高山雪线大幅度升高,冰缘作用衰退,全球自然地理带向两极方向推移,世界海平面上升。
19 Thomas C. Chamberlin, "An Attempt to Frame a Working Hypothesis of the Cause of Glacial Periods on an Atmospheric Basis", Journal of Geology,7,1899, pp.545-561.
20 “水团”是指源地和形成机制相近,具有相对均匀的物理、化学和生物特征及大体一致的变化趋势,而与周围海水存在明显差异的宏大水体。绝大多数水团是一定时期内在海洋表面获得其初始特征(主要取决于水团源地的地理纬度、气候条件、海陆分布及该区域的环流特征)后,因混合或下沉、扩散而逐渐形成的。此后,水团特征因外界环境的改变而变化,终因动力或热力效应而离开表层,下沉到与其密度相当的水层。通过扩散及与周围海水不断混合,继而形成表层以下的各种水团。
21 Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge,1996, p.21.
22 William W. Kellogg, Mankind's Impact on Climate:the Evolution of Awareness, Climatic Change, Vol10, No.2,1987, p.116.
23 Revelle, R. and Suess, H. E., "Carbon Dioxide Exchange Between Atmosphere and Ocean and the Question of an Increase of Atmospheric CO2 During the Past Decades", Tellus 9,1957, pp.18-27.
24 ppm (parts per million)是体积浓度表法,意指百分之一。v址指体积,ppmv是指一百万体积中含1体积。
23 Bert Bolin, A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change:the Role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.8.
26 PSAC, Restoring the Quality of Our Environment, Report of the Environmental Pollution Panel, President's Science Advisory Committee, The White House, Washington, D. C.1965.
27 National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Atmospheric Sciences Panel on Weather and Climate Modification, Weather and Climate Modification:Problems and Prospects,2 Vols. Washington, D.C.:National Academy of Sciences,1966, vol.1, p.10.
28 Hubert H. Lamb, "Climatic Fluctuations", in General Climatology, H. Flohn ed., Amesterdam Elsevier,1969, p.178.
29 参见世界气象组织历年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate), http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/statement/wmostatement_en.html2010年3月18日登录。
30 “全球气候变暖导致极端高温出现频率增加”,中国气象网,http://www.weather.com.cn/static/html/article/20091218/167407_l.shtml2010年3月18日登录。
31 John T. Hardy, Climate Change:Causes, Effects and Solutions, New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2003, pp.48-49.
32 姜冬梅、张孟衡、陆根法主编：《应对气候变化》,北京：中国环境科学出版社,2007年版,第5页。
33 当某地的天气、气候出现不容易发生的“异常”现象,或者说当某地的天气、气候严重偏离其平均状态时,即意味着发生“极端事件”。世界气象组织规定,如果某个(些)气候要素的时、日、月、年值达到25年以上一遇,或都与其相应的30年平均值的“差”超过了一倍均方差时,这个(些)气候要素值就属于“异常”气候值。出现“异常”气候值的事件就是“气候极端事件”。干旱、洪涝、高温热浪和低温冷害等事件都可以以看成极端气候事件。气候极端事件分为中效尺度和大尺度两类,前都特点为持续时间短、破坏力强;后者特点为覆盖面积广、持续时间长,可能给大范围地区或全球社会经济带来影响。参见：姜冬梅、张孟衡、陆根法主编：《应对气候变化》,北京：中国环境科学学出版社,2007年版,第6页。
34 骆高远,冯利华：《气候变化及其影响究》,北京：中国科学技术出版社,2004年版,第页。
35 Bruce E. Johansen, Global warming in the 21st Century (Volume 1), London:PraegerPublishers,2006,p.195.
36 参见世界气象组织2009年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2008). http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/WMO1039_EN_web.pdf,2010年3月19日登录。
37 参见世界气象组织2010年《全球气候状况报告》(WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2009), http://www.wmo.int/pages/publications/showcase/documents/1055_en.pdf,2010年5月20日登陆。
38 国家气候变化对策协调小组办公室、中国21世纪议程管理中心：《全球气候变化—人类面临的挑战》,北京：商务印书馆,2005年版,第71页。
39 刘俊主编：《关注全球气候变化》,北京：军事科学出版社,2009年版,第44页。
40 [美]罗斯·格尔布斯潘：《炎热的地球：气候危机,掩盖真相还是寻求对策》,戴星翼、张真、程远译,上海：上海译文出版社,2001年版,第133-134页。
41 Pim Martens, Jan Rotmans eds., Climate Change:an Integrated Perspective, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999, p.223.
42 John T. Hardy, Climate Change:Causes, Effects and Solutions, New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd,2003, pp.120-121.
43 Pim Martens, Jan Rotmans eds., Climate Change:an Integrated Perspective, the Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999, p.217.
44 Marc A. Levy, "Is t he Environment a National Security Issue?" International Security, Fall 1995,p.54.
45 Tony Blair,'Prime Minister's Speech on Sustainble Development",24 February 2003, http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.numberl0.gov.uk/Page3073 46 John Houghton, "Global warming is now a weapon of mass destruction", Guardian,28 July 2003, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2003/jul/28/environment.greenpolitics
47 Chris Buckley, "EU makes climate change centre of foreign policy", Reuters,18 January 2007, http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/01/18/idUSPEK343678 and "In warmer world, threat of cold war", International Herald Tribune,24 October 2007, p.l.另外,欧盟委员会2008年发布的报告再次声称气候变化是一个严重的政治和安全问题,并且“直接威胁到了欧盟的利益”。参见European Council,'Climate Change and International Security', European Council S113/08,14 March 2008, http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/reports/99387.pdf.
48 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
49 The CAN Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,2007, available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
30 Alan Dupont, East Asia Imperilled:Transnational Challenges to Security, Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.117.
51 Alan Dupont, "The Strategic Implications of Climate Change", Survival, Vol.50, No.3, June-July 2008, p.33.
52 United Nations Environment Programme, Sudan:Post-conflict Environment Assessment, Nairobi:UNEP,2007, p.75. http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf有关苏丹达尔富尔地区的“环境冲突”事件,可参见Jeffrey Mazo, Climate Conflict:How Global Warming Threatens Security and What to Do about It, New York:Routledge,2010, pp.73-86; Christian Webersik, Climate Change and Security:A Gathering Storm of Global Challenges, Santa Barbara, California:Praeger,2010, pp.39-42.
53 International Energy Agency,'World Energy Outlook 2007:Executive Summary', p.4, available at http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/2007.asp; see also Energy Task Force, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Canberra:Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet,2006, http://www.dpmc.gov.au/publications/energy_future/.
54 Santiago Olmos, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change:Concepts, Issues, Assessment Methods, Foundation Paper, Climate Change Knowledge Network, July 2001, pp.8-9. http://www.iisd.org/cckn/pdf/va_foundation_final.pdf
55 IPCC特别列举了三种引起环境移民/难民产生的“气候因素”：干旱事件、热带旋风(飓风和台风)、海平面上升。参见"1PCC 2007:Summary for Policymakers," in Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva:IPCC,2007, p.4, 12.
56 Paul J. Smith, "Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response", Orbis, Fall 2007, p.618.
57 在20世纪70年代早期,关于气候问题的争论不只是局限于由二氧化碳导致的全球变暖的可能性。事实上,当时许多科学家止在探究全球变冷的可能性。从1945年到1970年间,全球平均气温下降,这使许多科学家担心新的冰川时代的来临。参见Ian H. Rowland, The Politics of Global Atmospheric Change, Manchester:Manchester University Press,1994, pp.66-67.
58 Ian H. Rowland, The Politics of Global Atmospheric Change, Manchester:Manchester University Press,1994, p.106.
59 The South Commission, The Challenge of the South, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1990, p.183.
John Horel, Jack Geisler, Global Environmental Change:An Atmospheric Perspective, New York:John Wiley & Sons,1997, p.95.
61 John Horel, Jack Geisler, Global Environmental Change:An Atmospheric Perspective, New York:John Wiley & Sons,1997, p.123.
62 参见IPCC官方网站介绍, http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm; 其中文介始参 见:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-faq/ipcc-introduction-ch.pdf
63 Hammond, T.H., "Agenda Control, Organization Structure and Bureaucratic Politics" American Journal of Political Science, Vol.30, No.379,1986, pp.379-420.
¨本部分参见IPCC官方网站组织结构中文版介绍,http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-faq/ipcc-who-is-who-ch.pdf
65 截至2010年3月22日,IPCC主席团成员来源国家分别为印度、塞拉利昂、比利时、韩国、瑞士、美国、德国、日本、中国、阿根廷、古巴、巴西(2位)、马里、摩洛哥、马达加斯加、苏丹、伊朗、马尔代夫、加拿大、秘鲁、马来西亚、澳大利亚、意大利、新西兰、西班牙、英国、法国、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯。参见IPCC官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_bureau.htm
66 第一份《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》于1994年编写并于1996年作了修订。目前最新的一期的《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》是2006年经过修订后的版本。
67 第一次报告主要包括三个部分,分别为IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990; IPCC, Climate Change and Impact, Cambridge:Cambridge University Pres,1990; IPCC, Climate change:the IPCC response strategies, Washington, D.C.:Island Press,1991.
68 IPCC, Climate Change 1992:The Supplement Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Honghton J T, Callander BA, Varney SK eds. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992; IPCC, Climate Change 1992:The supplementary report to the IPCC impacts assessment, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992.
69 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1996; IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996; IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
70 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001.
71 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group Ⅰ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,2007; IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007; IPCC, Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007:Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group Ⅲ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,2007; 其结合报告版本参见IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment report synthesis_report.htm
72 IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990, p.365.
73 参见IPCC, Climate Change:The Scientific Assessment, Houghton JT, Jenkins G J, Ephraums J J, eds., Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.1990; IPCC, Climate Change and Impact, Cambridge:Cambridge University Pres,1990; IPCC, Climate change:the IPCC response strategies, Washington, D.C.:Island Press,1991.
74 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996, p.572.
75 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
76 IPCC, Climate Change 1995:Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1996.
77 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, pp.153-163.
78 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, p.228.
79 IPCC, Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2001, pp.306-347.
80 参见IPCC, Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.5.
81 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_cn.pdf, p.2.
82 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Geneva, Switzerland, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_cn.pdf, p.5.
83 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007, pp.8-22. 84 Ross Garnaut, The Garnaut Climate Change Review:Final Report, Cambtidge:Cambridge University Press,2008该书的中文版已经于2009年12月出版。参见[澳大利亚]郜若素：《郜若素气候变化报告》,张征译,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2009年版。
85 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security,2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf The CAN Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,2007, available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/SecurityandClimate_Final.pdf
86 Stern N, The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,2006.
87 该 报告的获得地址,http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/
88 参见IPCC官方网站http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization procedures.htm,
"principles governing the IPCC work"和"Procedures for the Preparation, Review, Acceptance, Adoption, Approval and Publication of IPCC Reports" 部分。Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf
89 Dr. Keith, Shine of Reading University, Reuters,20 Dec1995.转引自庄贵阳、朱仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社2009年版,第243页。
90 UN Climate Summary Designed to Dupe, Critics Say", Kevin Mooney, CNSNews.com Staff Writer, February 02,2007, available at: http://globalwarminghoax.wordpress.com/2007/02/02/un-climate-summary-designed-to-dupe-criti cs-sav/
91 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.493.
92 “气候门”(Climate Gate)是指2009年11月多位世界顶级气候学家的邮件和文件被黑客公开的事件。邮件和文件显示,一些科学家在操纵数据,伪造科学流程来支持他们有关气候变化的说法。“气候门”事件一度引起人们对全球气候变暖的质疑。
93[美]詹姆斯·布坎南：《民主过程中的财政》,唐寿宁译,上海：上海三联书店1992年版,第13页。
94 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第4页。
95 蔡拓等：《全球问题与当代国际关系》,天津：天津人民出版社2002年版,第2页。需要 特别提及的是,国内学者苏长和指出,全球公共问题既可能是公害问题.如生态危机和环境污染等；也可能是公益问题,如和平的维持和全球福利的提高等。参见：苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第5页。本文研究的气候变化问题主要是一个公害问题。
96 苏长和：《全球公共问题与国际合作：一种制度的分析》,上海：上海人民出版社2009年版,第5页。
97 俞可平主编：《全球化：全球治理》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第13页。
98[英]戴维·赫尔德等：《全球大变革：全球化时代的政治、经济与文化》,杨雪冬等译,北京：社会科学文献出版社2001年版,第70页。
99 Jacques Ellul, "Politicization and Political Solutions", in The Politicization of Society by Kenneth S. Templeton J r, Indianapolis:Liberty Press,1979, p.220.
100 [英]安德鲁·海伍德：《政治学核心概念》,吴勇译,天当：天津人民出版社,2008年版,第39页。
101 Hans Morgenthau, Politics among Nations, New York:Alfred Knopf,1978, p.29.
102 Gene M. Lyons, David A. Baldwin, Donald W. McNemar, "The'Politicization'Issue in the UN Specialized Agencies", Proceedings of the Academy of Political Science, Vol.32, No.4, The Changing United Nations:Options for the United States (1977), pp.84-85.
103 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr.,"International Interdependence and Integration", in Handbook of Political Science, vol.8, ed., by Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson Polsby, Reading, Mass.:Addison-Wesley,1975, p.397
104 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.152.
105 Philop Shabecoff, "Global Warming Has Begun, Expert Tells Senate," New York Times, June 24,1988,p.1; Bill McKibben, "Climate Change", Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb,2009, p.33.
106 Bill McKibben, The End of Nature, New York:Random House,1989, p.24.
107 Joe Barnett, "Security and Climate Change", Global Environmental Change, Vol.13, Issuel, April 2003, p.9.
108 Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics, London:Routledge,1996, pp.35-40.
109 Norman J. Vig, Regina S. Axelrod. The Global Environment:Institutions, Law, and Policy, Washington, D. C.:CQ Press,1999, p.109.
110 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphl Series,1996, p.153.
111 Tom Athanasiou. US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J,:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.163.
112 I. M. Mintzer, J.A. Leonard, Negotiating Climate Change, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1994, p.86.
113 “哥本哈根学派”(Copenhagen School)这一术语首先是由比尔·马克斯威尼(BillMcSweeney)提出的,他认为前哥本哈根和平研究所出版了“多部与安全有关的著作,安全可被授予学派称号”。参见Bill McSweeney, "Identity and Security:Buzan and the Copenhagen School", Review of International Studies, Vol.22, No.2,1996, p.81.
114 朱宁：《安全与非安全化——哥本哈根学派安全研究》,载《世界经济与政治》,2003年第10期,第22页。
115 Barry Buzan, Ole Wμver and Jaap de Wilde, Security:A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder, Colo.:Lynne Rienner Publishers.,1998, p.26.
116 Barry Buzan, Ole Wμver and Jaap de Wilde, Security:A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder, Colo.:Lynne Rienner Publishers.,1998, p.26.
117 Security Council Holds First-Ever Debate on Impact of Climate Change", Security Council SC/9000, April 17,2007. http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm
118 Hans Gunter Brauch, "Securitizing Climate Change", Paper Presented at the 50th ISA Annual Convention, New York,15-18 February,2008. http://www.afes-press.de/html/Brauch_ISA_NY_2.2.2009.pdf, pp.26-27.
119 [美]保罗·肯尼迪：《大国的兴衰——1500～2000年的经济变迁与军事冲突》,王保存等译、朱贵生校,北京：求实出版社1988年版,第213-324页。
120 “低碳经济”概念最早正式出现在2003年的英国能源白皮书《我们能源的未来——创建低碳经济》当中。参见DT(Department of Trade and Industry), Energy White Paper:Our Energy Future—Create a Low Carbon Economy, London:TSO,2003, Available at: http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file10719.pdf
121 这里的国际制度议价指的是自利团体之间为了处理集体行为问题而进行的协商,主要建立在利益取向的概念之上。参见Young Oran, "The Politics of International Regime Formation: Managing Natural Resources and the Environment," International Organization, Vol.43,1989, pp.331-356.
1 有关外交的诸多定义,参见Harold Nicolson, Diplomacy, London, Oxford:Oxford University Press, Third Edition,1963, p.5. R.P. Barston, Modern Diplomacy, New York:Addison Wesley Longman Inc, (second edition),1997, p.l. G. R. Berridge and Alan James, A Dictionary of Diplomacy, New York:Palgrave Publishers,2001, pp.62-63.金正昆：《现代外交学概论》,北京：中国人民大学出版社1999年,第6页。鲁毅等：《外交学概论》,北京：世界知识出版社,2004年,第5页。张历历：《外交决策》,北京：世界知识出版社,2007年,第43页。陈志敏等：《当代外交学》,北京：北京大学出版社,2008年,第5-6页。
2 David A. Wirth, "Climate Chaos", Foreign Policy, No.74 (Spring,1989), pp.3-22.
3 该研究所的网址：http://www.wupperinst.org/en/home/index.html
4 Hermann E. Ott, "Climate Change:An Important Foreign Policy Issue", International Affairs, Vol.77, No.2 (Apr.,2001), pp.295-296.
5 Andre Stochniol, Case Study for Innovation in Climate Change Diplomacy, paper presented in International Conference of Climate Change Diplomacy, Malta,7-8 February,2008. http://www.diplomacy.edu/conferences/ClimateChange/abstracts.asp
Paul Samuelson, "The Pure Theory of Public Expenditure", Review of Economics and Statistics, XXXVI, Nov.1954, pp.387-389.
7 Inge Kaul, Global Public Goods:International Cooperation in the 21stCentury, New York: Oxford University Press,1999, pp.509-510.
8 Inge Kaul, Global Public Goods:International Cooperation in the 21stCentury, New York: Oxford University Press,1999, p.13.
9 Daniel Bouille and Osvaldo Girardin, "Learning from the Argentine Voluntary Commitment", in Kevin A. Baumert, Odile Blanchard, Silvia Llosa, James Perkaus, eds., Building on the Kyoto Protocol:Options for Protecting the Climate, Washington:World Resources Institute,2002, p.135.
10 I. Kickbusch, "Global Health Governance:Some New Theoretical Considerations on the New Political Space", in K. Lee, ed., Globalization and Health, London:Palgrave,2003, p.192.
11 德国Ecofys公司的网站上列出了世界上主要能源、环境与气候变化研究机构的不完全汇总,参见该公司网址：http://www.fiacc.net/
12 参见该组织的官方网站：http://www.ipcc.ch/
13 See IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf.
14 陆忠伟主编：《非传统安全论》,北京：时事出版社,2003年版,第20页。
15 Richard Ullman, "Redefining Security", International Security, Vol.8, No.1,1983, p.129.
Kurt M. Campbell ed., Climatic Cataclysm:The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Climate Change, Washington:Brookings Institution Press,2008, pp.217-220.
" Smith S, Baylis J., The Globalization of World Politics. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1997 p.2.
18 Raymond Aron, The Industrial Society:Three Essays on Ideology and Development, New York: Praeger Press,1967, p.7.
David Fidler, "The Globalization of Public Health:Emerging Infectious Diseases and International Relations," Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, Vol.15, No.11,1997, p.14.
20 参见Gordon R. Walker, Mark A. Fox, "Globalization:An Analytical Framework", Indiana Journal of Global Legal Studies, Vol.3, No.2,1996.21 [美j布鲁斯·琼斯等著,秦亚青等译：《权力与责任：构建跨国威胁时代的国际秋序》,北京：世界知识出版社,2009年版,第76页。
22 [德]米夏埃尔·齐恩：《黑、红、绿、棕对非民族国家化的反应方式》,载乌·贝克、哈贝马斯等著,王学东等译：《全球化与政治》,北京：中央编译出版社,2000年版,第162页。
23 The Commission on Global Governance, Our Global Neighborhood:the report of the Commission on Global Governance, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1995, pp.2-3.
24 俞可平主编：《全球化：全球治理》,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第13页。
25 [美]丹尼斯·米都斯等著,李宝恒译：《增长的极限——罗马俱乐部关于人类困境的报告》,长春：吉林人民出版社,1997年版。
26 World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, New York: Oxford University Press,1987.
See Stern N, The Economics of Climate Change:The Stern Review, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press,2006.
Pamela S. Chasek, Earth Negotiation:Analyzing Thirty Years of Environmental Diplomacy, Washington:United National University Press,2001, p.125.
29 Pamela S. Chasek, Earth Negotiation:Analvzing Thirty Years of Environmental Diplomacy, Washington:United National University Press,2001, p.125.
30 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
31 参见《京都议定书》文本：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpchinese.pdf
32 参见《京都议定书》文本附件B。
33 UNFCCC, "Total aggregate greenhouse gas emissions of individual Annex I Parties,1990-2006 (excluding LULUCF)", http://unfccc.int/files/inc/graphics/image/gif/total_excluding_2008.gif
34 联合国开发计划署：“富国没有尽到帮助穷国的责任”,《新华社中文新闻》,2007年12月11日。
35 Duncan Brack, Michael Grubb and Craig Windram, International Trade and Climate Change Policies, London:Earthscan Publications Ltd,2000, p.48.
36 王俊：《从制度设想到贸易政策：美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第78页。有关“碳关税”相关概念的辨析,参见黄文旭：《碳关税相关概念辨析》,载《岭南学刊》,2011年第1期,第70-75页。
37 Katrin Bennhold, "France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax," New York Times, Feb. 1,2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/europe/01climate.html
38 Katrin Bennhold, "France Tells U.S. to Sign Climate Pacts or Face Tax," New York Times, Feb. 1,2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/europe/01climate.html
39 例如,2007年参议院提出的《低碳经济法案》(Low Carbon Economy Act, S1766)、《美国气候安全法案》(Lieberman-Warner, America's Climate Security Act, S2191)以及2009年众议院提出的《美国清洁能源与安全法》(American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, H. R.2454)等法案都包含有对第三国产品征税的建议。
40 本文的新能源既包括风能、太阳能、氢能等可再生能源,也包括铀矿、氦-3和清洁煤等能源。
41 于宏源：《权力转移中的能源链及其挑战》,载《世界经济研究》,2008年第2期,第29-34页。
42 [美]曼瑟尔·奥尔森著,陈郁等译：《集体行动的逻辑》,上海：上海人民出版社,1995年,第2页。
43 俞正樑、陈玉刚等：《21世纪全球政治范式》,上海：复旦大学出版社,2005年,第178页：俞正樑、陈玉刚：《全球共治理论初探》,载《世界经济与政治》,2005年第2期,第8-15页。
44 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本：http://unfccc.int/rcsource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
45 [法]亚历山大·基斯：《国际环境法》,张若思北京：法律出版社2000 年版,第109页。
46 王曦：《论现代国际法中的“对一切”义务概念》,载王曦主编：《国际环境法与比较境法评论》,北京：法律出版社2002年版,第95页。
47 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本“序”部分：http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/convchin.pdf
48 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本。
49 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第51页。
50 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本。
51 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》正文第11条资金机制第1款的规定。
52 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京:中国法制出版社2007年版,第55页。有关全球环境基金与中国环保政策协调关系的研究,参见于宏源：《全球环境基金与中国环境外交》,载《当代亚太》2006年第2期,第38-43页。
53 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》。54 Kenneth W. Abbott and Duncan Snidal, "Hard and Soft Law in International Governance,' International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,2000, p.421.
R. Bernhardt ed., Encyclopedia of Public International Law, Instalment 7, Netherland:Elscvier Science Publishers B. V.,1984, p.62.
56 Kenneth W. Abbott and Duncan Snidal, "Hard and Soft Law in International Governance," International Organization, Vol.54, No.3,2000, pp.422-455.
57 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第58页。
58 Christine Chinkin, "International Environmental Law in Evolution", in Tim Jewell and Jenny
Steele eds., Law in Environmental Decision-Making:National, European and International Perspective, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.245.
59 Tom Athanaslou and Paul Baer, Dead Heat:Global Justice and Global Warming, New York: Seven Stories Press,2002.
60 郭冬梅：《应对气候变化法律制度研究》,北京：法律出版社2010年版,第69页。
61 参见《京都议定书》文本。
62 参见《京都议定书》文本。
63 欧盟成员国作为一个整体参与减排行动。欧盟通过内部谈判将议定书规定的8%的减排任务分解到各成员国。如德国承诺减排21%、英国减排12.5%、丹麦减排21%、荷兰减排6%,而希腊、葡萄牙的排放量增长为25%和27%,爱尔兰也被允许增长13%的排放量。欧洲理事会环境部长级会议已于1998年7月对各成员国的减排任务做出了决定。参见M.Wenning,Climate Change:The Road to Ratification and Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Presented on the 663ed Wiston Park Conference, Wilton Park, May 2002, pp.13-17. David Pocklington, "European Emissions Trading:The Business Perspective", European Environmental Law Review, July 2002, p.210. Michael Bothe, "Tradable Emission Certificates as a Mechanism for National Compliance under the UNFCCC", in Tao Zhenhua and Rudiger Wolfrum eds., Implementing International Environmental Law in Germany and China, The Hague;Boston:Kluwer Law International,2001, p.128.
64 参见《京都议定书》文本。
65 参见《京都议定书》第12条。其中,“附件一所列缔约方”指《公约》附件一所列缔约方,包括可能作出的修正或指根据《公约》第四条第2款(g)项作出通过的缔约方。《公约》附件一所包括的缔约方共37个,由1992年时的经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员国、欧盟以及11个经济转型国家组成。相应地,非附件一缔约方是指未列入附件一的所有其他缔约方。
66 庄贵阳：《从公平与效率原则看清洁发展机制及其实施前景》,载《世界经济与政治》,2001年第2期,第64页。
67 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.7.
68 Joanna Depledge, "From Kyoto to Buenos Aires and Beyond", in W. Bradnee Chambers ed., Inter-linkages:The Kyoto Protocol and the International Trade and Investment Regimes, Tokyo: The United Nations University Press,2001, p.12.
69 鲁传一,刘德顺：《减缓全球气候变化的京都机制的经济学分析》,载《世界经济》,2002年第8期,第73页。
70 碳汇一般是指从空气中清除二氧化碳的过程、活动、机制。它主要是指森林吸收并储存二氧化碳的多少,或者说是森林吸收储存二氧化碳的能力。与此相关,森林碳汇是指森林植物吸收大气中的二氧化碳并将其固定在植被或土壤中,从而减少该气体在大气中的浓度。森林是陆地生态系统中最大的碳库,在降低大气中温室气体浓度、减缓全球气候变暖中,具有十分重要的独特作用。与碳汇相对应的概念是碳源,它是指自然界中向大气释放碳的母体。
71 《京都议定书》文本。
72 Abram Chayes, Antonia Handler Chayes, and Ronald B. Mitchell, "Managing Compliance:A Comparative Perspective", in Edith Brown Weiss and Harold K. Jacobson ed, Engaging Countries: Strengthening Compliance with International Environmental Accords, Boston:MIT Press,1998, p.39.
73 [法]亚历山大·基斯：《国际环境法》,张若思译,北京：法律出版社2000年版,第223 页。
74 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第70-71页。
75 杜群：“气候变化的国际法发展：《<联合国气候变化框架公约>京都议定书》述评”,载韩德培主编,《环境资源法论丛》(第3卷),北京：法律出版社2003年版,第256-257页。
76 杜群：“气候变化的国际法发展：《<联合国气候变化框架公约)京都义定书》述评”,载韩德培主编,《环境资源法论丛》(第3卷),北京：法律出版社2003年版,第257页。
77 三重目标具体是①为温室气体减排提供国际法律基础和保障：②附件一缔约国在2008到2012年期间,将温室气体的总排放量在1990年的基础上削减5.2%；③通过附件缔约国率先减排的示范作用,说服发展中国家参与全球减排行行动。参见Benito Muller, "Does US Ratification Really Matter?", Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, May 2000, available at: http://associnst.ox.ac.uk/energy/13.html
78 陈迎：《(京都议定书>的前途及其国际经济和政治影响》,载《世界经济与政治》,2001年第6期,第42页。
79 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.33. 80 Brett Simpson, "Participation of Developing Countries in a Climate Change Convention Protocol," Asia Pacific Journal of Environmental Law, Vol.7, Issue 1,2002, p.44.
81 经济合作与发展组织：《国际经济手段和气候变化》,曹东等译,北京：中国环境科学出版社1996年版,第100页。
82参见王洛林：《2002-2003年：世界经济形势分析与预测》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版。
83 Michael Grubb, Christiaan Vrolijk and Duncan Brack, The Kyoto Protocol:A Guide and Assessment, London:The Royal Institute of International Affairs & Earth-scan Publication Ltd, 1999, p.33.
84 参见“巴厘路线图”文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/chi/06a01c.pdf#page=3
85 “中到专家解渎‘巴厘路线图’”,http://www.china.com.cn/news/txt/2007-12/15/content_9387694.htm,中国网,2007-12-15。
86 参见《哥本哈根协议》文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/chi/11a01c.pdf
87 “凝聚共识,构筑新的起点——中国气候局局长郑国国光解读《哥本哈根协议》”,http://www.gov.cn/jrzg/2009-12/22/content_1494124.htm,中国政府网,2009-12-22。
88 参见《坎昆协议》文本,http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/chi/07a01c.pdf#page=2
89 参见United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Press Release,11 December 2010.http://unfccc.int/files/press/news_room/press releases_and_advisories/application/pdf/pr 20 101211_copl6_closing.pdf
90 Alexander Kiss, Dinah Shelton, International Environmental Law, New York:Transnationa Publishers, Inc.,2000, p.39.
Rajendra Ramlogan, The Developing World and the Environment, Washington:University Press of America Inc.,2004, p.247.
92 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第291页。
93 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第292页。
94 Robert D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Politics:The Logic of Two-Level Games" International Organization, Vol.42, No.3 (Summer 1988), pp.427-460.或者参见薄组：《双层次博弈理论：内在逻辑及其评价》,载《现代国际关系》,2003年第6期,第54-60页。
95 张小平：《全球环境治理的法律框架》,北京：法律出版社2008年版,第294页。
96 Lawrence E. Susskind, Environmental Diplomacy:Negotiating More Effective Global Agreements, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1994, pp.30-37.
97 郭冬梅：《应对气候变化法律制度研究》,北京：法律出版社2010年版,第86-87页。
98 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第4条第2款(a)项的规定。
99 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第4条第2款(b)项的规定。
100 [美]希拉里·弗伦奇著：《消失的边界》,李丹译,上海：上海译文出版社2002年版,第120-123页。
101 参见《京都议定书》第3条第1款的规定。
102 [美]希拉里·弗伦奇：《消火的边界》,李丹译,上海：上海译文出版社2002年版,第121页。
103 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.3.
104 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第11条第3款(d)项的规定。
105 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第11条第5款的规定。
106 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第61页。
107 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第107页。
108 Izrael, Yu et al., "Mitigation Analysis for Energy System and Forestry Sector of the Russian Federation", in Global Climate Change Mitigation Assessment:Results for 14 Transitioning and Developing Countries, Washington, D.C.:US-Country Studies Program, August 1997, p.139.
109 Chris Rolfe, "Undermining the Kyoto Protocol:Will Weaknesses and Loopholes in the Kyoto Protocol Negate Its Environmental Effectiveness?" http://wcel.org/sites/default/files/Undermining%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol-%20Will%20weak nesses%20and%201oopholes%20in%20the%20Kyoto%20Protocol%20negate%20its%20environ mental%20effectiveness.pdf
110 David G. Victor, The Collapse of the Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming, Princeton:Princeton University Press,2001, p.30.
111 Sangmin Shim, "Korea's Leading Role in Joining the Kyoto Protocol with the Flexibility Mechanism as'Side-Payments'", The Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Issue2,2003, p.217.
112 陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社 2008年版,第73页。
113 杨兴：《气候变化框架公约研究——国际法与比较法的视角》,北京：中国法制出版社2007年版,第76-77页。
114 崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第106页。
115 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第7条第2款以及该款(e)项的规定。
116 参见《京都议定书》第18条的规定。
117 Michael Bothe, "Tradable Emission Certificates as a Mechanism for National Compliance under the UNFCCC", in Tao Zhenhua and Rudiger Wolfrum eds., Implementing International Environmental Law in Germany and China, The Hague;Boston:Kluwer Law International,2001, p.127.
118 Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony:Cooperation and Discard in the World Political Economy, New Jersey:Princeton University Press,2005, P.240.
119 Jack Donnelly, "International Human Rights:A Regime Analysis", International Organization, Vol.40, No.3, Summer 1986, p.638.
120 [美]德沃金著：《法律帝国》,李常青译,北京：中国大百科全书出版社1996年版,第325页。
121 [德]沃尔夫·刚格拉夫·魏智通主编：《国际法》,吴越等泽,北京：法律出版社2002年版,第572页。
122 赵汀阳：《博弈问题的哲学分析》,载《读书》2003年第2期,第80-81页。
123 H. E. Ott, et al, South-North Dialogue on Equity in the Greenhouse:A proposal for an adequate and equitable global climate agreement, Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH Postfach, May 2004, http://www.wupperinst.org/
124 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第7页。
125 参见潘家华：《后京都国际所候博定的的谈判趋势与对策思考》,载《气候变化研究进展》.2005年第1期,第11页。
126 庄贤阳：《哥本哈根气候博弈与中国角色的再认识》,载《外交评论》,2009年第6期,第16页。
127 Fabian Wagner and Markus Amann, "Analysis of the Proposals for GHG Reductions in 2020 Made by UNFCCC Annex I Countries by Mid-August 2009", International Institute for Applied System Analysis, September 19,2009.
128 Kelly Levin, "Comparison of 2020 Targets and Ranges Pledged by Developed Countries" World Resources Institute, December 2009, http://www.wri.org/publications
129 See Copenhagen Accord, available at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/107.pdf
130 IPCC, Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report, Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press, 2007.
131 Taryn Fransen, "Summary of GHG Reduction Pledges Put Forward by Developing Countries", World Resources Institute, December 9,2009, http://pdf.wri.org/summary_of_non_annexl_pledges_2009-12.pdf
1 这18个城市为鞍山、北京、长春、成都、重庆、贵阳、哈尔滨、济南、昆明、兰州、南吕、上海、沈阳、太原、天津、武汉、郑州和淄博。参见The World Bank, World development indicators 2010, pp.206-207. http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/defaultA/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2010/04/27/000333 037_20100427005935/Rendered/PDF/542510PUB0WDI0101Official0Use0Onlyl.pdf
2 国家环保总局中国环境规划院课题组：《2020年中国能源与环境面临的挑战与对策》,载于《经济参考报》2005年11月10日。
3 WHO (World Health Organization), Environmental Health Country Profile-China, WHO: Geneva,2004.
4 张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》1998年第11期,第12-13页。
5 参见联合国环境规划署(UNEP)官方网站《联合国人类环境宣言》第5条,http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/default.asp?DocumentID=97&ArticleID=1503&1=e n
6 高宇声主编：《<环境保护>十年选编》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1985年版,第4页。
7 丁金光：《中国环境外交的开端：成就与问题》,载《甘肃社会科学》,2007年第5期,第170页；张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》1998年第11期,第13页。
8 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1990》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1990年版,第6页。
9 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1990》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1990年版,第7-8页。
10 王之佳：《中国环境外交》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1999年版,第222页。
11 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处编：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》(二),北京：中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第72页。
12 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第108-109页。
13 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第21页。
14 该机构的官方网址：http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/node_7039793.htm
15 张海滨：《中国环境外交的演变》,载《世界经济与政治》,1998年第11期,第14页。
16 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1993》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1993年版,第43页。
17 孟浪编著：《环境保护事典》,长沙：湖南大学出版社1999年版,第827页。
18 丁金光：《国际环境外交》,北京：中国社会科学出版社2007年版,第231页。
19 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1994》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1994年版,第380-384页。
20《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1995》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第5页。
21参见《中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告》编写组：《中华人民共和国可持续发展国家报告》,北京：中国环境科学出版社2002年版,第46-47页。
22《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1996》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社1996年版,第233页。
23 《江泽民再次发表讲话强调,科技和环保合作事关亚太未来》,载《中国青年报》,1996年11月26日。24 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1998》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社1998
年版,第308页。
25 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, No. 156, Special Issue:China's Environment (Dec.,1998), pp.814-815.
26 参见《中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会报告》,2007年10月25日。
27 尤其是2005年以来,中国参加的环境会议、签署的环境协议和相关的交流活动每年都在40次以上。参见《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴》(2006-2010年份),北京： 中国环境年鉴出版社2006-2010年版,国际交流与合作部分。
28 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2003》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2003年版,第291页。
29 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2006》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2006年版,第294页。
30 国务院新闻办公室：《中国的环境保护(1996-2005)》,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2006-06/05/content_4646674_5.htm,2010年11月17日登陆。
31 朱新光、齐峰：《浅析中国——东盟气候合作》,载《国际问题研究》,2009年第2期,第4页。
32 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴2008》,北京：中国环境年鉴出版社2008年版,第396页。
33 中国国家环保总局,《国际合作》,http:PPwww.zhb.gov. cnPeicP65161786920051968Pindex.shtml,2005-10-25。
34 王绍武,赵宗慈,唐国利：《中国的气候变暖》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第1页。
35 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第12页。
36 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第3页。
37 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第3-4页。
38 Eun-Shik Kim, Dong Kyun Park, Xueyong Zhao, Sun Kee Hong, Kang Suk Koh, Min Hwan Shu and Young Sun Kim, "Sustainable management of grassland ecosystems for controlling Asian dusts and desertification in Asian continent and a suggestion of eco-village study in China", Ecological Research 21:6, Nov.2006, pp.907-911.
39 中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第17-18页。
40 中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第17页。
41 Fan Daidu and Li Congxian, "Complexities of China's coast in response to climate change", Advances in Climate Change Research 2,2006, pp.54-58; C. X. Li, D. D. Fan, B. Deng and D. J. Wang, "Some problems of vulnerability assessment in the coastal zone of China", in N. Mimura and H. Yokoki, eds, Global change and Asian Pacific coasts, Proceedings of APN/SURVAS/LOICZ joint conference on "Coastal impacts of climate change and adaptation in the Asia-Pacific region", Kobe, Japan,14-16 Nov.2000, pp.49-56.
42 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第18页。《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,第295页。
43 World Health Organization, Climate change and human health:risks and responses, Geneva: WHO,2003. http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climchange.pdf
44 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第19页。
45 参见《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学国版社2007年版,第4页。
46 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月,第16-17页。
47刘玲、沙奕卓、白玉明：《中国主要农业气象灾害区域分布与减灾对策》,载《自然灾害学学报》,2003年第2期,第92-97页。
48 成福云：《干旱灾害对21世纪初我国农业发展的影响探讨》,载《水利发展研究》,2002年第10期,第31-33页。
49 居煇等著：《气候变化与中国粮食安全》,北京：学苑出版社2008年版,第26-27页。
50 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,序言第2页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
51 Abigail Jones, Vinca Lafleur, and Nigel Purvis, "Double Jeopardy:Climate Crisis Means for the Poor", in Lael Brainard, Abigail Jones, and Nigel Purvis eds., Climate Change and Global Poverty, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2009, p.10.
52 参见乐施会中国官方网站：http.//www.oxfam.org.cn/down_s.php?id=89
53 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,第18页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
54 参见由绿色和平与国际扶贫组织乐施会于2009年6月发布的报告《气候变化与贫困——中国案例研究》,第18页。http://www.oxfam.org.cn/userfiles/report/CC.poverty.report.pdf
55 左书华、李蓓：《近20年中国海洋灾害特征、危害及防治对策》,载《气象与减灾研究》,2008年第4期,第28-33页。
56 参见《2008年中国国防白皮书》,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2009-01/20/content_10688192.htm
57 “中国成立军队气候变化专家委员会”,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-11/07/content_10323151.htm,2008年11月07日。
58 吴青柏、程国栋、马巍：《多年冻土变化对青藏铁路工程的影响》,载《中国科学》D辑,2003年总第33期,第115-122页。
59 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第153页。
60 Jin Hunjun, et al., "Chinese Grocryology at the Turn of the Twentieth Century", Permafrost Periglacial Processes,2000,11(1), pp.23-33.
61 吴青柏等：《青藏高原多年冻土监测及近期变化》,载《气候变化研究进展》,2005年第1期,第26-28页。
62 参见张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第174-177页。
63 Joanna I. Lewis, "Climate change and security:examining China's challenges in a warming world", International Affairs,85:6 (2009), pp.1203-1205.
64 王铁崖主编：《国际法》,北京：法律出版社1984年版,第67页。
65 张海滨：《气候变化与中国国家安全》,北京：时事出版社2010年版,第150页。
Bayer J. Linnerooth, "Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness", in Ference L. Toth (ed), Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change, London:Earthscan,1999, p.59.
67 参见中国国家统计局：《中国统计年鉴2010》,
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2009/indexch.htm
68 参见Walt W. Rostow, The Stages of Economic Growth:A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 1960.,
69 参见潘家华：《我国能源发展的战略误区与选择》,载《中国能源》,2009年第7期,第16页。中国国家人口和计划生育委员会：《人口“十一五”规划和2020年发展思路》,参见中国国家人口和计划生育委员会官方网站：http://www.chinapop.gov.cn/tzgg/200806/P020080619552889682813.doc。
70 World Energy Outlook 2010, http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_es_chinese.pdfo
71 参见BP Statistical Review of World energy 2010, http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications /statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdfo
72 IEA Statistics, CO2 Emissions from fuel Combustion, Highlights,2009 Edition, http://ccsl.iccip.net/co2highlights.pdfo
73 World Energy Outlook 2009, http://www.worldenergyoutIook.org/docs/weo2009/WEO2009_es_chinese.pdf。
74 例如,自20世纪90年代参与气候变化谈判以来,中国“强调以人均排放量为基准”的基本立场始终未有重大改变。参见张海滨：《中国在国际气候变化谈判中的立场：连续性与变化及其原因探析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2006年第10期,第39页。
75 参见Karl Hallding, Guoyi Han, and Marie Olsson, A Balancing Act:China's Role in Climate Change, Stockholm:Swedish Commission on Sustainable Development,2009。
76 杨洁勉主编：《世界气候外交和中国的应对,北京：时事出版社2009年版,第265页。
77 John M. Broder, "In Obama's Team, Two Camps on Climate Change," The New York Times, January 2,2009.
78 参见严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国与G77在国际气候谈判中的分歧》,载《现代国际关系》,2010年第4期,第22-23页。张磊：《国际气候政治的中国困境——一种微观层次的梳理》,载《教学与研究》,2010年第2期,第69-70页。
79 AOSIS, Declaration on Climate Change 2009, http://www.sidsnet.org/aosis/documents/AOSIS%20Summit%20Declaration%20Sept%2021%20F INAL.pdf
80 AOSIS, Declaration on Climate Change 2009, http://www.sidsnet.org/aosis/documents/AOSIS%20Summit%20Declaration%20Sept%2021%20F INAL.pdf
81 Jianjun Tu, "Future Prospects of China's Policy on Climate Change", The Jamestown Foundation, China Brief, Volume IX, Issue 1,2009, pp.13-14.
82 有关国家参与国际制度的详细阐述,参见史明涛：《国家正向和反向参与国际制度：一·个国际——国内制度互动的解释》,载《国际观察》,2009年第2期,第57-64页。
83 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第53页。
84 Detlef Sprinz, Tapani vaahtoranta, "The Interest-Based Explanation of International Environmental Policy", International Organization, Vol.48, No.1,1994, pp.80-81.
75 参见陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第54页。庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第11页。
86 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第1期,第66-83页。
87 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第1期,第78页。
88 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第54-55页。
89 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第12页。
90 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第55页。这一分析视角类似于“以知识为基础”(knowledge-based)的分析模式,See Hongyuan Yu, "Knowledge and Climate Change Policy Coordination in China," East Asia, Vol.21, No.3,2004, pp.58-77.
91 就现有成果而言,2003年,Zhang Zhihong(?)分析了影响中国国际气候变化谈判政策的三个因素：国家利益、主权和国际形象。参见Zhang Zhihong, "The Forces behind China As Climate Change Policy:Interests, Sovereignty, and Prestige", in Paul G. Harris, ed., Global Warming and East Asia:The Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, London:Routledge,2003,p.66.2007年,中国社会科学院城市与发展研究中心的陈迎博士提出了减缓成本、脆弱性、国际转移支付和国际碳市场、与其他问题挂钩、其他因素(如国际形象)等要素来理解中国参与国际气候谈判的立场。参见陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载 《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第56-59页。北京大学国际关系学院的张海滨博士则主张用减缓成本、生态脆弱性和公平原则三个变量来解释中国的气候变化立场。参见张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第26-34页。
92 张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第30页。
93 国家环保总局中国环境规划院课题组：《2020年中国能源与环境面临的挑战与对策》,http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/xxfw/hyyw/t20051107_48390.htm
94 Z. Zhang, The Ecomics of Energy Policy in China:Implications for Global Climate Change, Edward Elgar,1997.转引自崔大鹏：《国际气候合作的政治经济学分析》,北京：商务印书馆2003年版,第205页。
95 陈迎：《国际气候制度的演进及对中国谈判立场的分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2007年第2期,第57页。
96[美]曼瑟尔·奥尔森著,陈郁等译：《集体行动的逻辑》,上海：上海人民出版社1995年版,第2页。
97 陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社2008年版,第18页。
98 庄贵阳、米仙丽、赵行妹：《全球环境与气候治理》,杭州：浙江人民出版社2009年版,第205页。
99 有关《京都议定书》所提供的选择性激励研究,参见陈刚：《京都议定书与国际气候合作》,北京：新华出版社2008年版,第81-151页。
100 International Institute for Sustainable Development, "A Daily Report on the Eleventh Session of the NC for the Framework Convention on Climate Change," Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol.12, No.5,1995, http://www.iisd.ca/download/asc/enb1205e.txt。
101 参见国家发展和改革委员会副主任姜伟新在中国清洁发展机制(CDM)大会开幕式上的讲话,2005年10月20日,http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/UpFile/File506.PDFo
102 相关讨论,参见：徐玉高、何建坤：《气候变化问题上的平等权利准则》,载《世界环境》,2002年第2期,第17-21页：陈迎、潘家华：《温室气体排放中的公平问题》,http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3963:郑艳、梁帆：《气候公平原则与国际气候制度构建》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第6期,第69-90页Henry Shue, "Equity in an International Agreement on Climate Change," in Equity and Social Considerations Related to Climate Change, ed., Richard Samson Odingo et al, Nairobi:ICIPE Science Press,1995; Mathew Paterson, "International Justice and Global Warming," in The Ethical Dimensions of Global Change, Barry Holden ed., London:Macmillan Press,1996; Adam Rose, Brandt Stevens, Jae Edmonds and Marshall Wise, "International Equity and Differentiation in Global Warming Policy:An Application to Tradable Emission Permits", Environmental and Resource Economics 12:25-51,1998. Paul G. Harris, International Equity and Global Environmental Politics, Aldershot:Ashgate,2001; Elle Wiegandt, "Climate Change, Equity, and International Negotiations", in Urs Luterbacher and Detlef F. Sprinz, eds., International Relations and Global Climate Change, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press,2001.
103 Duncan French, "Developing States and International Environmental Law:The Importance of Differentiated Responsibilities", The International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol.49, No. 1 (Jan.,2000), pp.35-60. Paul G. Harris, "Global Warming in Asia-Pacific:Environmental Change vs. International Justice", Asia-Pacific Review, Vol.9, No.2,2002, pp.130-149.
104 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三条。
105 张海滨：《中国与国际气候变化谈判》,载《国际政治研究》,2007年第1期,第32-34页。
106 关于中国在国际制度中谋求声誉的研究及其争论,参见王学东：《外交战略中的声誉因素 研究——冷战后中国参与国际制度的解释》,天津：天津人民出版社2007年版：陈寒溪：《中,国如何在国际制度中谋求声誉》,载《当代亚太》,2008年第4期,第143-158页； 王学东：《中国参与国际制度的声誉考量》,载《当代亚太》,2009年第2期,第147-160页。
107 Hyung-Kwon Jeon and Seong-Suk Yoon, "From International Linkages to Internal Divisions in China:the Political Response to Climate Change Negotiations", Asian Survey, November/December 2006, Vol.46, No.6, p.852.
108 “中国批准京都议定书,联合国称树立一个良好榜样”,中国新闻网,2002-08-31,http://news.china.com/zh_cn/domestic/945/20020831/11319837.html
109 中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室：《中国的能源状况与政策》(白皮书),http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-12/26/content844159.htm
110 Bo Wang, "Understanding China's Climate Change Policy—From Both International and Domestic Perspectives", American Journal of Chinese Studies, volume 16, issue 2, October 2009, pp.87-104. Gorild Heggelund, "China's Climate Change Policy:Domestic and International Development", Asian Perspective, Vol.31, No.2,2007, p.178.
111 根据研究视角和目的的不同,可以将中国参与国际气候制度的历程划分为不同的阶段。例如,有国外学者将中国参与国际气候谈判的立场分为3个阶段：《联合国气候变化框架公约》签订及生效阶段(1990～1994年左右)；《京都议定书》的签订及生效阶段(1995～2005年左右);以及后京都谈判阶段(2005～)。参见[挪威]唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第35-37页。还有学者将中国的立场演变分为“被动却积极参与阶段”(1990-1994年);“谨慎保守参与阶段”(1995-2001年)；“活跃、开放参与阶段”(2002-)。参见严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第80-90页。本文在借鉴上述研究成果的基础上将中国参与国际气候制度的谈判分为四个阶段。
112 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第522页。
113 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第254页。
114 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科…版社1995年版,第255页。
115 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际所治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第9-10页。
116 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第82页。
117 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第249页。
118 国务院环境保护委员会秘书处：《国务院环境保护委员会文件汇编》,中国环境科学出版社1995年版,第359页。
119 唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第36页。
120 参见"Earth Negotiation Bulletin", Vol.12, No.5, p.9, p.55, Http://www.iisd.ca/linkages/vo112/
121 唐更克、何秀珍、本约朗：《中国参与全球气候变化国际协议的立场与挑战》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第8期,第36页。
122 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第83页。
123 庄贵阳：《后京都时代国际气候治理与中国的战略选择》,载《世界经济与政治》,2008年第8期,第10页。
124 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1 期,第84页。
125 参见中国清洁发展机制网,http://cdm.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CDM/UpFile/File2560.pdf
126 中国国务院新闻办公室：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》(2008年),http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-10/29/content_1134378.htm
127 参见中国代表团团长刘江部长在气候变化公约第六次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网,http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3875
128 参见胡锦涛2008年7月9目在经济大国能源安全和气候变化领导人会议上的讲话,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-07/10/content_8519929.htm
129 康晓琴、刘振宏、徐淑媛：《中国清洁发展机制项目现状分析》,载《中外能源》,2009年第8期,第25页。
130 严双伍、肖兰兰：《中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变》,载《当代亚太》,2010年第1期,第89页。
1 Harris, P.G., "International Environmental Affairs and U.S. Foreign Policy," in P.G. Harris (ed.), The Environment, International Relations, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington, DC:Georgetown University Press,2001, p.34.
Bryner, G., From Promises to Performance:Achieving Global Environmental Goals, New York: W.W. Norton,1997, p.9.
3 Brett D. Schaefer, "Green Creep:the Increasing Influence of Environmentalism in U.S. Foreign Policy", in Terry L. Anderson and Henry I. Miller eds., The Greening of U.S. Foreign Policy, Stanford:Hoover Institution Press,2000, p.41.
Terry L. Anderson and Henry I. Miller eds., the Greening of U.S. Foreign Policy, Stanford: Hoover Institution Press,2000.
5 David Brian Robertson and Dennis R. Judd, The Development of American Public Policy:The Structure of Policy Restraint, Glenview,I11.:Scott, Foresman and Co.,1989, p.323.
0 Tom Wicker, One of Us:Richard and the American Dream, New York:Random House,1991, p.509. Micheal R. Vickery, "Conservative Politics and the Politics of Conservation:Richard Nixon and the Environmental Protection Agency", in Tarla Rai Peterson eds., Green Talk in the White House:the Ehrtorical Presidency Encounters Ecology, Texas:Texas A&M University Press,2004, p.116.
Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford: Oxford University Press,1998, p.86.
8 Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford: Oxford University Press,1998, p.86.
John McCormick, Reclaiming Paradise:The Global Environmental Movement, Bloomington: Indiana University Press,1991, p.110.
10 Memo, "United States International Environmental Initiative", Rogers to Nixon,12 Jan.1972, annex 6, p.2.
11 于宏源、汤伟：《美国环境外交：发展、动因和手段研究》,载《教学与研究》,2009年第9期,第62-63页。
12 Don Munton, et al., "A ir, Water, and Political Fire:Building a North American Environmental Regime", in Chaire Cutler, et al., eds., Canadian Foreign Policy and International Economic Regimes, Vancouver:The University of British Columbia Press,1992, p.319.
13 杨令侠：《加拿大与美国关于酸雨的环境外交》,载《南开学报》,2002年第3期,第119页。
14 Kraft and Vig, "Environmental Policy from the Seventies to the Nineties", in Vig and Kraft eds., Environmental Policy in the 1990s, Washington DC:Congressional Quarterly Press,1994, p.15.
15 Michael E. kraft, "U. S. Environmental Policy and Politics:From the 1960s to 1990s", in Otic L. Graham J r eds., Environmental Politics and Policy:1960s—1990s, Pennsylvania:The Pennsylvania State University Press,2000, p.30.
16 参见Stephen Hopgood, American Foreign Environmental Policy and the Power of the State, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.129. Paul G. Garris, "International Environmental Affairs and U.S. Foreign Policy", in Paul G. Garris eds., The Environment, International Relations and U.S. Foreign Policy, Washington DC:Georgetown University Press,2001, p.5.
17 Vig N.J., "Presidential Leadership and the Environment:From Reagan and Bush to Clinton", in Vig and Kraft eds., Environmental Policy in the 1990s, Washington DC:Congressional Quarterly Press,1994, p.83.
18 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第29页。
Benedick, Richard Elliot., Ozone Diplomacy:New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, the 2ed edition, Cambridge, Massachusetts:Harvard University Press,1998, p.159.
20 参见楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第29-30页。
21 Clinton Bill and Al Gore, Putting People First:How We Can AH Change America, New York: Times Books,1992, p.93.
22 J. Robert Cox, "The (Re) Making of the 'Environmental President':Clinton/Gore and the Rhetoric of U.S. Environmental Politics,1992—1996", in Tarla Rai Peterson eds., Green Talk in the White House:the Rhetorical Presidency Encounters Ecology, Texas:Tesxs A&M University Press,2004, p.160.
23 薄燕：《环境问题与美国国家安全战略》,载《美国研究》,2002年第2期,第79-92页。
24 The White House, "A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement", February 1995, Introduction, p.l. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/nss/nss-95.pdf
25 Gareth Porter, "International Security Resources Planning:The Next Step for Environmental Security," ECSP Report 2,1996, pp.32-37.
26 The White House, "1996 U. S. National Security Strategy Report," http://www.fas.org/spp/military/docops/national/1996stra.htm
27 参见美国1997年《环境外交报告》,http://cryptome.org/jya/dos042297.htm
28 参见美国1997年《环境外交报告》, http://cryptome.org/jya/dos042297.htm
29 "Clinton Lays out Environmental Program", http://www.loe.org/shows/shows.htm?programID=93-P 13-00017
30 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第30页。
31 参见丁金光：《国际环境外交》,北京：中国社会科学出版社2007年版,第148页。.
32 United States Department of State, "Environmental Diplomacy:The Environment and U.S. Foreign Policy", available at:http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/earth.html
33 于宏源、汤伟：《美国环境外交：发展、动因和手段研究》,载《教学与研究》,2009年第9期,第67页。
34 [美]沃伦·克里斯托弗：《美国新外交：经济、防务、民主——美国前国务卿克里斯托弗回忆录》,苏广辉、张林宏、符晓等译,北京：新华出版社1999年版,第151页。
35 楼庆红：《美国环境外交的的三个发展阶段》,载《社会科学》,1997年第10期,第43页。
36 [美]赫伯特·斯坦：《美国总统经济史：从罗斯福到克林顿》,金清、郝黎莉译,长春：吉林人民出版社1997年版,第68页。
37 Richard N. L. Andrews, Managing the Environment, Managing Ourselves:A History of American Environmental Policy,2ed Edition, New Haven:Yale University Press,2006, pp.385-389.
Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraff, eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century,6th Edition, Washington, D.C.:CO Press,2006, p.112.
Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraff, eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century,6th Edition, Washington, D.C.:CO Press,2006, p.114-115.
Dick-Cheney, National Energy Policy:Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, available at:http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyReport/National-Energy-Policy.pdf
41 Glenn Kessler and Amy Goldstein, "First Bush Budget Makes Modest Cuts", Washington Post, April 10,2001; "Bush Budget:The Losers", Washington Post, April 10,2001; "Who Gets What Slice of the President's First Federal Budget Pie," New York Times, April 10,2001.
Diana Jean Schemo and Lynette Clemtson, "Domestic Gains for Education but Not Much Else", New York Times, February 3,2004; David Stout, "Bush Seeks Sweeping Budget Cuts to Rein in Federal Deficit", New York Times, February 8,2005.
43 "The Bush Record:More than 300 Crimes against Nature", available at: http://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/200409/bush_record_print.asp
44 Jaroslaw Anders and Staff Writer, "Environmental Protection Vital Part of U.S. Trade Policy", available at: http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2007/April/20070416144949zjsredna0.9548761.html
45 Amanda Little, "Obama leads bipartisan effort to raise fuel-economy standards", available at: http://www.grist.org/article/fuel-econ/
46 Micheline Maynard, "Obama Criticizes Automakers on Fuel Economy", May 8,2007.
47 "Barack Obama and Joe Biden:Promoting a Healthy Environment",available at: http://www.barackobama.com/pdfissues/Environment FaclSheet.pdf
48 参见美国白宫官方网站环境和能源部分,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/energy-and-environment 49 U.S. Department of Energy:http://www.pi.energy.gov/usa_china_energy_cooperation.htm; 有
关中美环境外交的研究,参见丁金光、史卉：《中美环境外交的回顾与展望》,载《现代国际关系》2010年第4期,第27-31页。
50 "Summit of Americas Leaders Pledge Environmental Cooperation", April 20,2009. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2009/2009-04-20-01.html
51 Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009, p.9.
52 See IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications and_data/publications and data_reports.shtml#1
53 Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," p.71.
54 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, pp.852-856.
55 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.862; Thomas R. Karl and Gerald A. Meehl, "Executive Summary," in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.: Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, pp.4,8; Claudia Tebaldi and others, "Going to the Extremes:An Inter-comparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events," Climatic Change, vol.79,2007, p.22.这种变化已经在北美的大部分地区发生,其中很大程度上与人类活动对气候的影响有关。
56 J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections,'" in Susan Solomon and others, eds.. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, p.887.
Backlund, Janetos, and Schimel, The Effects of Climate Change, p.149; Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2009, p.42.
58 Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," p.75; J. H. Christensen and others, "Regional Climate Projections," in Susan Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press, 2007, p.890.
59 Meehl and others, "Global Climate Projections," in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus:North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, pp.750, 782; Claudia Tebaldi and others, "Going to the Extremes:An Inter-comparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events," Climatic Change, vol.79, 2007, pp.185-211.
60 Field and others, "North America", in Thomas R. Karl and others, eds., Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus:North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data Center,2008, p.629; and National Science and Technology Council, Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States.
61 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the United States, A Report by Congressional Budget Office, May 2009, pp.12-13. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/101xx/doc10107/05-04-ClimateChange_forWeb.pdf
Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, p.9.
Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, p.178.
64 See Field and others, "North America," pp.631-632; Michael Fogarty and others, "Potential Climate Change Impacts on Atlantic Cod (Gadus Morhua) off the Northeastern U.S.A.," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol.13, no.5-6 (June 2008), pp. 453-466; and Heinz G. Stefan, Xing Fang, and John G. Eaton, "Simulated Fish Habitat Changes in North American Lakes in Response to Projected Climate Warming," Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, vol.130, no.3 (May 2001), pp.459-477.
65 Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a State of Knowledge Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,2009, p.80.
“66 可参见John Reilly and others, "U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change:New Results," Climatic Change, vol.57.2003, pp.43-69.
67 所谓CO2的施肥效应是指CO2浓度增加对植物生长的助长作用。CO2浓度上升对粮食作物产量产生的影响将直接关系到气候变化背景下的的全球粮食供应安全及人类适应对策。
See John Reilly and others, Global Economic Effects of Changes in Crops, Pasture, and Forests Due to Changing Climate, Carbon Dioxide, and Ozone, Report No.149 (MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change,2007), http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Rpt 149.pdf.
69 参见Allison M. Thomson and others, "Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment," Climatic Change, vol.69, no.1, March 2005.
70 See Raymond P. Motha and Wolfgang Baier, "Impacts of Present and Future Climate Change and Climate Variability on Agriculture in the Temperate Regions:North America," Climatic Change, Vol.70, No.1-2 (May 2005), pp.137-164; Robert Mendelsohn and Michelle Reinsborough, "A Ricardian Analysis of U.S. and Canadian Farmland," Climatic Change, vol.81. No.1 (March 2007), pp.9-17.
71 Cynthia Rosenzweig and others, "Increased Crop Damage in the US from Excess Precipitation Under Climate Change," Global Environmental Change, Vol.12, No.3 (October 2002), pp. 197-202.
72 Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, "The effects of climate change on agriculture land resources water resources and biodiversity in the united states", U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3, May 2008, pp.21-74.
Robert Mendelsohn and James E. Neumann, eds., The Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2004, p.25.
74 Mills, E., "2005:Insurance in a climate of change," Science, Vol.309, No.5737, pp.1040-1044.
U.S. Government Accountability Office, Climate Change:Financial Risks to Federal and Private Insurers in Coming Decades are Potentially Significant, Report to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Washington, DC,2007, p.l. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07285.pdf
76 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
" U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, February 2010, http://www.defense.gov/qdr/QDR%20as%20of%2029JAN10%201600.pdf
78 Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security",2003, available at: http://www.edf.org/documents/3566_AbruptClimateChange.pdf
The CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, April 2007, http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%2 0Climate%20Change.pdf
Joshua W. Busby JW. Climate Change and National Security:An Agenda for Action, Council Special Reports,2007, No.32, p.l. http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/ClimateChange_CSR32.pdf
Joshua William Busby, "Who Cares about the Weather? Climate Change and U.S. National Security," Security Studies, Vol.17, No.3,2008, p.492.
82 White House, Arctic Region Policy, National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-66, Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-25, Washington, D.C.:Office of the Press Secretary,12 January 2009. Available at: http://www.nsf.gov/od/opp/opp;advisory/briefings/may2009/nspd66_hspd25.pdf;该文件的中文版可参见：中国极地研究中心编：《国外极地考察信息汇编》,2009年第14期,第34-39页。有关气候变化与北极地缘政治博弈的研究,参见何奇松：《气候变化与北极地缘政治博弈》,载《外交评论》,2010年第5期,第113-122页。
http://www.gechs.org/downloads/holmen/Busby.pdf
84 Letitia Lawson, "U.S. Africa Policy since the Cold War," Strategic Insights 6, No.1,2007, http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2007/Jan/lawsonJan07.pdf
Solomon and others, eds., Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, U.K.:Cambridge University Press,2007, "Technical Summary," pp.35-54; Peter Backlund, Anthony Janetos, and David Schimel, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, D.C.:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,2008, p.3.
86 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.173.
87 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "How Dependent Are We on Foreign Oil", available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/energy in brief/foreign_oil_dependence.cfm
88 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "AEO2011 Early Release Overview", available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383er(2011).pdf
89 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "DRAFT-Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:1990-2009", http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/downloads11/US-GHG-Inventory-2011-Executive-S
ummary.pdf 90 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.174.
91 Sophie Meritet and Fabienne Salaun, "The United States Energy Policy:At a Turning Point", in Jean-Marie Chevalier eds., The New Energy Crisis:Climate, Economics and Geopolitics, Hampshire:Palgrave Macmillan,2009, p.174.
92 U.S. Energy Information Agency, "AEO2011 Early Release Overview", available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383er(2011).pdf
93 "PNG's PM criticises US climate change policy as irresponsible, "http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=50602
94 关于是欧盟,而不是美国在京都进程中扮演“领导者”角色的原因分析,参见薄燕：《“京都进程”的领导者：为什么是欧盟不是美国》,载《国际论坛》,2008年第5期,第1-7页。95 参见刘慧、陈欣荃：《美欧气候变化政策的比较分析》,载《国际论坛》,2009年第6期,第22页。
96 钱皓：《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第59页。
97 有关环境决策过程中科学与伦理关系的讨论,参见John Lemons and Donald Brown, "The Role of Science in Sustainable Development and Environmental Decision-making", in John Lemons and Donald Brown eds., Sustainable Development; Science, Ethics, and Public Policy, Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995, pp.11-35.
98 Donald A. Brown, American Heat:Ethical Problems with the United States' Response to Global Warming, Boston:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,2002, p.138.
99 国际关系中的“祖父原则”(Grandfathering Principles)最初可追溯至二战结束后,战胜国和后来的发达国家在重新设置国际制度时已经考虑将以“祖父原则”为基础,以制度规范认可发达国家和发展中国家在各个领域的权利差异。参见钱皓《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第63-64页
100 Paul G. Harris, World Ethics and Climate Change:from International to Global Justice, Edinburgh:Edinburgh University Press,2010, p.82.
101 钱皓：《正义、权利和责任——关于气候变化问题的伦理思考》,载《世界经济与政治》,2010年第10期,第68页。
102 European Parliament, "United States Climate Change Policy", http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies/download.do?file=19959
103 Donald A. Brown, American Heat:Ethical Problems with the United States' Response to Global Warming, Boston:Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,2002, p.71.
104 王维、周睿：《美国气候政策的演进及其析因》,载《国际观察》,2010年第5期,第73页。
105 Bill McKibben, The End of Nature, New York:Random House,1989, p.29.
106 Tom Athanasiou, US Politics and Global Warming, Westfield, N.J.:Open Magazine Pamphlet Series,1996, p.163.
107 Larry B. Stammer, "Geopolitical Effects of Global Heating Gauged," Los Angeles Times, February 10,1992, p.1.
108 Karen Schmidt, Industrial Countries' Response to Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C.: Environment and Energy Study Institute,1991, p.95.
109 Scott A. Hajost, "The Role of the United States", in The Environment After Rio:International Law and Economics, edited by Luigi Campiglio, London:Graham and Trotman,1994, p.18.
110 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约议定书》文本。
111 Paul R. Brewer and Andrew Pease, "Federal Climate Politics in the United States:Polarization and Paralysis", in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey eds., Turning down the Heat:the Politics of Climate Policy in Affluent Democracies, England:Palgrave Macmillan,2008, p.86.
112 Paul R. Brewer and Andrew Pease, "Federal Climate Politics in the United States:Polarization and Paralysis", in Hugh Compston and Ian Bailey eds., Turning down the Heat:the Politics of Climate Policy in Affluent Democracies, England:Palgrave Macmillan,2008, p.86. Paul G. Harris, "Climate Change:Is the United States Sharing the Bueden?" in Paul G. Harris edit., Climate Change and American Foreign Policy, New York:St. Martin's Press,2000, p.38.
113 President Clinton, "Address to the Joint Sessions of Congress", Feb.17,1993, available at http://clinton6.nara.gov/1993/0211993-02-17-address-by-the-president-tothe-joint-session-of-con gress.html.环境组织帮助起草了此份协议,参见Thomas W. Lippman, "Energy Tax Proposal Has 'Green'Tint; Environmentalists Back Plan They Helped Draft", Washington Post, Mar.2, 1993, Dl.
114 White House Office of the Press Secretary, Remarks by the President in Earth Day Speech (Apr.21,1993), available at http://clinton6.nara.gov/1993/0411993-04-21-presidents-remarks-in-earth-day-speech.html
115 Agrawala and Andresen, "U.S. Climate Policy:Evolution and Future Prospects," Energy and Environment, Summer 2001, p.6. 116 David S. Hilzenrath, "Politics Overtakes Policy in Energy Tax Debate", Washington Post, July 20,1993, C1.
117 National Research Council, "Effects of Past Global Change on Life Panel on Effects of Past Global Change on Life," Washington, D.C:National Academies Press,1995.
118 President Clinton, Address at National Geographic Society, paragraphs 9 and 13 (Oct.22, 1997), http://clinton6.nara.gov/1997/10/1997-10-22-remarks-onglobal-climate-change.html
119 Al Gore, "Keynote Address by U.S. Vise-President Al Gore," Environmental Policy and Law, Vol.23, No.3/4,1993, pp.183-185.
120 该方案的内容,参见：President William J. Clinton and Vice President Albert Gore, Jr., "The Climate Change Action Plan" (Oct.1993), available at http://www.gcrio.org/USCCAP/toc.html
121 Paul G. Harris, "Climate Change:Is the United States Sharing the Bueden?" in Paul G. Harris edit., Climate Change and American Foreign Policy, New York:St. Martin's Press,2000, p.39.
122 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinlon:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.429.
123 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinton:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.429.
124 薄燕：《国际谈判与国内政治：美国与<京都议定书>谈判的实例》,上海：上海三联书店2007年版,第113页。
125 参见S. Res.98,105th Cong (1997), "Byrd-Hagel Resolution", Sponsored by Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), available at: http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html
126 Amy Royden, "U.S. Climate Change Policy under President Clinton:A Look Back," Golden Gate University Law Review, Volume 32, Issue 4,2002, p.437.
127 President Clinton's Climate Change Proposal (Oct.22,1997), available at http://www.state.govlwww/globallglobal_issueslclimatelbackground.html
128 "U.S. Rejection of Kyoto Protocol Process", The American Journal of International Law, Vol.95, No.3,2001, p.648. 129 Amy Goldstein &Eric Pianin, "Hill Pressure Fueled Bush's Emission Shift, Washington Post, Mar.15,2001, at Al.
130 "U.S. Rejection of Kyoto Protocol Process", The American Journal of International Law, Vol.95, No.3,2001, p.649.
131 "Bush Speech on Global Climate Change'", available at: http://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2001/010611/epf103.htm
132 参见White House Climate Change Review--Interim Report, June 11,2001, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/4584.pdf; "Bush Speech on Global Climate Change", available at: http://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2001/010611/epf103.htm
133 U.S. Department of State, "U.S. Pledges Continued Support for Climate Change Convention.' International Information Programs, July 19,2001,参见美国国务院网网站：http://www.usinfo.state.gov/topical/global/climate/01031401.htm.
134 美国国家海洋与国际环境、科学事务局：http://www.state.gov/g/oes/rls/rm/4149.htm 135 See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Clear Sky Act of 2003", http://www.epa.gov/air/clearskies/fact2003.html
136 U.S. EPA, President Bush Announces Clear Skies & Global Climate Change Initiatives, February 14,2002. http://www.epa.gov/epahome/headline2_021402.htm.
137 庄贵阳：《举步维艰的<京都议定书>》,载《全球政治安全报告》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2003年版,第116页。
138 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第32页。
139 例如,2007年4月,海军分析中心(Center for Naval Analysis)就发表了名为《国家安全与气候变化的威胁》的报告,并且得到数十位退役美军高级将领的支持。参见Center for Naval Analysis, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA:CAN Corportation,2007), available at: http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%2 0Climate%20Change.pdf See also Alan Dupont, "The Strategic Implications of Climate Change," Survival, Vol.50, No.3, June/July 2008, p.30.
140 例如,2008年5月28日,美国科学家学会(Union of Concerned Scientist s)公布了首次由全美顶尖的1700多名科学家与经济学家联合签署的《美国科学家与经济学家关于迅速及深入减少温室体排放的呼吁书》,旨在请求美国领导人立即采取措施大幅度减少导致全球变暖的气体排放。参见"U.S. Scientists and Economists'Call for Swift and Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions", http://www.env-econ.net/2008/04/us-scienlists-a.html
141 参见李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第33页。
142 Caroline Daniel, "Bush Admits to Role of Humans in Global Warming," Financial Times, July 7,2005, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb0c3b94-ee84-11d9-98e5-00000e2511c8.html#axzzlIF9r4kIX
143 Stephen Lacey, Staff Writer, "Bush Addresses Climate Change in State of the Union Address, " Jan24,2007, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2007/01/bush-addresses-climate-change-i n-state-of-the-union-address-47216144 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第34页。
145 "Remarks by President Bush on Climate Change",16 April,2008, http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2008/April/20080416165403eaifas0.1469843.html
146 Barack H. Obama, Inaugural Address, January 20,2009, available at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2009/01/21/president-barack-obamas-inaugural-address
147 参见马建英：《奥巴马政府的气候政策分析》,载《和平与发展》,2009年第5期,第45-50页。
Larry West, "Green Initiatives, Tax Incentives are at Core of 2009 Economic Stimulus Package", http://environment.about.com/od/environmentallawpolicy/a/econ stimulus.htm
Jason Bordoff, Lael Brainard, Carola McGiffert and Isaac Sorkin, "Strengthening American Competitiveness:Regaining Our Competitive Edge- Four Priorities and 20 New Ideas", Report of Brookings,2009, p.16. http://www.brookings.edu/-/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/02_american_competitiveness_brainard/ 02_american_competitiveness_brainard.pdf
150 马建英：《奥巴马政府的气候政策分析》,载《和平与发展》,2009年第5期,第46页。151 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中信出版社 2009年版,第45页。
152 John M. Broder, "In Obama's Team, Two Camps on Climate Change," The New York Times, Jan.2,2009.
153 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中,信出版社2009年版,第48-49页。
154 2009年4月27日,该论坛在美国召开了首次会议。
155 [美]巴拉克·奥巴马：《我们相信变革——重塑美国未来希望之路》,孟宪波译,北京：中信出版社2009年版,第51页。
156 美国国会预算局官方网站："CBO's Baseline and Estimate of the President's Budget", March 2009. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10014/Chapterl.5.1.shtm1#1098869
157 “美国气候变化问题特使要求国会通过清洁能源法案”,2009年11月4日,http://www.america.gov/st/energy-chinese/2009/November/20091106141716dmslahrellek0.59418 89.html
158 参见李海东：《奥巴马政府的气候变化政策与根本哈根世界气候大会》,载《外交评论》,2009年第6期,第28页。
159 陈迎：《迈向哥本哈根之路不平坦》,载王伟光、郑国光主编：《应对气候变化报告(2009)：迈向哥本哈根》,北京：社会科学文献出版社2009年版,第338页。
160 “美国附苛刻条件提出中期气候融资方案”,新华网,2009年12月17日,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-12/17/content_12663625.htm
1 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", in Richard Louis Edmonds eds., Managing the Chinese Environment, Oxford:Oxford University Press,1998, p.83.
2 分别参见中国代表团团长刘江在气候变化公约第五次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3876;中国代表团团长王金祥在
气候变化公约第十一次缔约方会议暨京都议定书第一次缔约方会议上的发言,中国气候变化信息网http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=3836
3 这一点体现于朱镕基在2003年3月5日所做的政府工作报告中,参见朱镕基：《2003年政府工作报告》,http://www.gov.cn/test/2006-02/16/content_201173.htm
4 温家宝在第六次全国环境保护大会上的讲话：《全面落实科学发展观加快环境友好型社会建设》,参见中国环境网：http://www.cenews.com.cn/historynews/06 07/200712/t20071229_24479.html
5 参见胡锦涛在2009 年9月22日纽约联合国气候变化峰会上的讲话,新华网,http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2009-09/23/content_2098929.htm。
6 The World Bank, "Public Attitudes Toward Climate Change:Findings from A Multi-Country Poll," http://siteresources.worldbank.org/1NTWDR2010/Resources/Background-report.pdfo
'Elizabeth Economy and Miranda A. Schreurs, "Domestic and International Linkages in Environmental Politics", in Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy eds., The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, New York:Cambridge University Press,1997, p.6.
Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Broading Perspectives and Policies but only to A Point", in David Lampton eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.251.
9 《中国环境年鉴》编辑委员会：《中国环境年鉴1991》,北京：中国环境科学出版社1991年版,第651页。
10 Lester Ross, "China:Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms", The China Quarterly, Vol.156, December 1998, p.818.
11 参见《世界环境》网站：http://www.wem.org.cn/news/view.asp?id=165&cataid=27
12 《国务院关于成立国家应对气候变化及节能减排工作领导小组的通知》,载中国政府网,http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007-06/18/content_652460.htm;另可参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/column.asp?ColumnId= 12
13 “外交部建立应对气候变化对外工作机制”,2007/09/03,参见中国外交部官方网站：http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/gxh/tyb/wjbxw/t358121.htm
14 《法<欧洲时报>评环保总局升为环保部：亮点中的亮点》,载中国网,http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/2008-03/15/content 12702315.htm
15 Elizabeth Economy, "The Impact of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Broading Perspectives and Policies but only to A Point", in David Lampton eds., The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001, p.236.
16 劳特派特修订：《奥本海国际法》上卷,第1分册,(第八版),王铁崖、陈体强译,北京：商务印书馆1981年版,第24-25页。
17 所谓气候变化立法,是指一国制定的以温室气体的排放控制为导向,以气候变化问题的应对为目的的法律、法规和其他规范性文件的总和。参见杨兴、刘最跃《我国气候变化立法的缺陷及其对策分析》,《时代法学》2006年第2期,第68页。另外,中国专门的气候变化立法工作已经启动,参见“专家版气候变化应对立法启动,2012年年底定稿”,中国新闻网,2010-11-11, http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2010/11-11/2648628.shtml
18 参见《中华人民共和国固体废物污染环境防治法》第四十三条。
19 参见《中华人民共和国清洁生产促进法》第十六条第一款。
20 参见《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》第九条。
21 参见《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》第二十五条。
22 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第5页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
23 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第21页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
24 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
25国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动—2009年度报告》,2009年11月,第8页。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File572.pdf
26 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
27 康晓：《利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例》,《世界经济与政治》2010年第1期,第81页。
28 Gorild Heggelund, "China's Climate Change Policy:Domestic and International Development", Asian Perspective, Vol.31, No.2,2007, p.163-164.
29 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
30 国家发展和改革委员会：《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动——2010年度报告》,2010年11月。参见中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File927.pdf
31 《气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会：《气候变化国家评估报告》,北京：科学出版社2007年版,前沿第2页。32 “我国第二次气候变化国家评估报告完成编写”,参见：中国气候变化网：http://www.ipcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=15&NewsID=852
33 参见中国国家发展和改革委员会组织编制：《中国应对气候变化国家方案》,2007年6月。
34 参见中国科技部、国家发改委等联合发布：《中国应对气候变化科技专项行动》,2007年6月,第1页。中国气候变化信息网：http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File 198.pdf
35 2008—2010年的《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》文本,参见中国气候变化信息网： http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/column.asp?ColumnId=31
36 《我国于30日正式启动省级应对气候变化方案项目》,中国环境与发展国际合作委员会网站,http://www.china.com.cn/tech/zhuanti/wyh/2008-07/01/content_15915198.htm。
37 该立场文件参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbqt/2009qt/t20090521_280387.htm
38 国家林业局：《应对气候变化林业行动计划》,北京：中国林业出版社2010年版。
39 “国务院关于做好建设节约型社会近期重点工作的通知”,中国政府网,2005-09-08,http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-09/08/content_30265.htm
40 《国务院关于加快发展循环经济的若干意见》,《中国环境年鉴2005》),北京：中国环境年鉴社2005年版,第31-32页。
41 “四个不批”：即对于国家明令淘汰、禁止建设、不符合国家产业政策的项目,一律不批；环境污染重,产品质量低,能耗、物耗高,污染物不能达标排放的项目,一律不批；环境质量不能满足环境功能区要求,没有总量指标的项目,一律不批;位于自然保护区核心区、缓冲区内的项目,一律不批。”“三个严格”,即严格限制审批涉及饮用水水源保护区、自然保护区、风景名胜区以及重要生态功能区的项目;严格限制审批能耗、物耗、污染物排放量大的项目,并且要坚决杜绝已被淘汰的项目以所谓技术改造、拉动内需等名义重新上马；严格按照总量控制的要求,把污染物排放总量指标作为区域、行业、企业发展的约束条件。参见中国环境保护部副部长吴晓青在第十一届全国人大二次会议新闻中心举行的“当前环境保护形势和任务”专题采访上的回答,中国环保部官方网站,2009-03-12,http://www.zhb.gov.cn/zhxx/hjyw/200903/t20090312_135225.htm
42 《胡锦涛吴邦国温家宝贾庆林习近平李克强贺国强周永康参观2009中国国际节能减排和新能源科技博览会》,载《人民日报》,2009年3月21日。
43 “国务院常务会研究决定我国控制温室气体排放目标”,中国政府网,2009年11月26日,http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/26/content_1474016.htm
44 温家宝：《推进应对气候变化历史进程》,载《人民日报》,2009年12月19日。
45 “国家发展与改革委员会关于批准武汉城市圈和长株潭城市群为全国资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设综合配套改革试验区的通知”,参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/gzdt/t20071221_180138.htm
46 “国家发展改革委关于开展低碳省区和低碳城市试点工作的通知”,参见中国国家发展和改革委员会官方网站：http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/2010tz/t20100810_365264.htm
47 李海东：《从边缘到中心：美国气候变化政策的演变》,载《美国研究》,2009年第2期,第28页。
48 Norman J. Vig, "Presidential Powers and Environmental Policy", in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, p.82.
49 President William J. Clinton, Vice President Al Gore, J r., "The Climate Change Action Plan,"October 1993, available at:http://www.gcrio.org/USCCAP/index.html
30 "Remarks As Prepared for Delivery for Vice President Al Gore:Kyoto Climate Change Conference", December 8,1997, http://clinton2.nara.gov/WH/EOP/OVP/speeches/kyotofin.html
51 Beth Daley, "Obama urged to create'Green New Deal'", http://www.boston.com/news/science/articles/2008/11/24/obama_urged_to_create_green_new_dea 1/
52 例如,2010年7月22日,美国参议院多数党领袖哈里·里德宣布,在参议院夏季休会前付诸全体讨论表决的能源议案中舍弃限制碳排放的气候条款。这基本上宣告了第111届美国国会关于限定温室气体排放的气候立法努力的失败,对奥巴马政府限制温室气体排放的努力无疑是一个打击。参见杨强、梅仁毅：《奥巴马政府气候政策遇挫及影响》,载《现代国际关系》,2010年第11期,第59-62页。
53 Christopher P. Borick, "American Public Opinion and Climate Change", in Barry G. Rabe ed., Greenhouse Governance:Addressing Climate Change in America, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2010, pp.27-28.
54 Pew Environment Group:http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/poll/index.html.
55 The Yale. Project on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Communication, "Global Warming's Six Americas", May 14,2010 to June 1,2010, http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/images/files/Six_Americas_June_2010(1).pdf
56 由于美国第101届国会起始于1989-1990年,本文将1989年国会有关气候变化议题的立法提案也列入了本项统计研究中。
57 David M. Driesen, "The Changing Climate for United States Law," Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol.1, No.1,2007, p.34.
58 American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, the 111th Congress HR.3036. EH
59 参见中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所＆气候组织主办,《美国应对气候变化的战略和立法——分析发展动向及其对中国的启示》,载《气候变化展望》,2009年第1期,第7页。
60 高翔、牛晨：《美国气候变化立法进展及启示》,载《美国研究》,2010年第3期,第49页。
61 参见高翔、牛晨：《美国气候变化立法进展及启示》,载《美国研究》,2010第3期,第50页。
62 Barry G. Rabe, "Can Congress Govern the Climate", in Barry G. Rabe ed., Greenhouse Governance:Addressing Climate Change in America, Washington D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2010, p.282.
63 有关美国50个州应对气候变化问题的举措,参见Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, pp.371-405.
"History of California's Involvement in Air Pollution and Climate Change," available at: http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/background/history.html
65 John C. Dernbach and Seema Kakade, "Climate Change Law:An Introduction," Energy Law Journal, Vol.29, No.l,2008, p.15.
66 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Model Rule (2007), http://www.rggi.org/docs/model_rule_corrected_1_5_07.pdf
67 Western Climate Initiative, Work Plan October 2007-August 2008 (2007), http://www.westernclimateinitiative.org/ewebeditpro/items/O104F13792.pdf.
68 有关此报告的详细信息,参见National Assessment Synthesis Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program, published in 2000, available at: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/first-national-assessment
69 该报告的文本,参见http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/140636.pdf
70 历年年报的详细文本,可参见http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/
71 参见李威：《碳关税的国际法与国际机制研究》,载《国际政治研究》,2009年第4期,第41-42页。
Economics Focus, "Emissions Suspicions, " The Economist, June 19,2008, http://www.economist.com/node/11581408?story_id=11581408
73 Ian Talley and Tom Barkley, "Energy Chief Says U.S. Is Open to Carbon Tariff, "The Wall Street Journal, March 18,2009, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123733297926563315.html74 该法案的文本,参见：http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-111hr2454ih/pdf/BILLS-111hr2454ih.pdf
75 黄文旭：《碳关税相关概念辨析》,载《岭南学刊》,2011年第1期,第74页。
76 参见《联合国气候变化框架公约》文本第四条第一款规定。基中,第十二条是要求“提供有关履行的信息”,具体参见《公约》文本。
Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, p.73.
78 例如,在制定《2005年能源政策法案》过程中,国会就承认：(1)温室气体在大气层中 的聚集会引起海平面上升和极端气候灾害的出现：(2)越来越多的科学事实显示人类活动是引起温室气体积聚的主主原因；(3)有必要采取强制措施米减缓和阻止这种聚集。参见Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and U.S. Law, Chicago:American Bar Association,2007, p.85.
79 谢来辉,陈迎：《中国对碳关税问题过度担忧了吗?》,载《国际经济评论》,2010年第4期,第139页。
80 有关美国国内因素对“碳关税”政策的影响分析,参见王俊：《从制度设想到贸易政策：美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析》,载《世界经济与政治》,2011年第1期,第87-90页。
81 林民旺、朱立群：《国际规范的国内化：国内结构的影响及传播机制》,载《当代亚太》,2011年第1期,第141页。
82 Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, pp.25-27.
83 苏长和：《中国与国际制度——一项研究议程》,载《世界经济与政治》,2002年第10期,第9页。
Thomas Risse-Kappen, ed., Bringing Transnational Relations Back in:Non-State Actors, Domestic Structure and International Institutions, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1995, p.25.
85 Norman J. Vig, "Presidential Powers and Environmental Policy," in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, pp.76-77.
86 Michael E. Kraft, "Environmental Policy in Congress," in Norman J. Vig and Michael E. Kraft eds., Environmental Policy:New Directions for the Twenty-First Century, Washington DC.:CQ Press,2010, p.101.
1 下逸舟：《西方国际政治学：历史与理论》,上海：上海人民出版社2006年版,第509-510页。
2 [美]英吉.考尔等编：《全球化之道——全球公共产品的提供与管理》,张春波、高静译,北京：人民出版社2006年版,第83页。
3 苏长和：“新制度主义与旧制度主义——国际政治生活中的制度因素”, 《复旦国际政治研究论丛》第1卷,2001年,第15页。
4 杨洁勉：《中国对软实力的探索：作为公共产品的国际体系观》,载《国际问题论坛》,2007年秋季号,第9页。
5 [美]英吉·考尔编：《全球化之道：全球公共产品的提供与管理》,张春波、高静译,北京： 人民出版社,2006年版,第284页。
6 目前的新能源有太阳能、风能、地热能、海洋能、生物质能和核聚变能等。
7 有关能源与国际权势关系的论述,可参见赵宏图：“国际能源转型现状与前景”,载《现代国际关系》,2009年第6期,第35-42页。于宏源：“权力转移中的能源链及其挑战”,载《世界经济研究》,2008年第2期,第29-34页。于宏源：《环境变化和权势转移：制度、博弈和应对》,上海：上海人民版社2011年版。
8 本部分的论述,参见马建英：《浅析中美清洁能源合作》,载《现代国际关系》,2009年第12期,第49页。
9 《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年3月16日,参见中国政府网：http://www.gov.cn/ztzl/2006-03/16/content_228841.htm,2009年11月29日访问。
10 “国务院常务会研究决定我国控制温室气体排放目标”,中国政府网,2009年11月26日,http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2009-11/26/content_1474016.htm
11 “中国国际科技合作优先清洁能源、先进核能”,载《第一财经日报》,2006年12月4日,第A3版。
12 参见中国科技部、发改委等联合发布：《中国应对气候变化科技专项行动》,2007年6月。http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/WebSite/CCChina/UpFile/File198.pdf
13 “中国气象局局长郑国光建议尽快立法应对气候变化”,中国气象局官方网站：http://www.cma.gov.cn/ztbd/2010zt/20100205/201002051/201003/t20100315_61879.html
14 胡鞍钢、管清友：《中国应对全球气候变化》,北京：清华大学出版社,2009年版,第141页。
15 David Held, "Democratic Accountability and Political Effectiveness from a Cosmopolitan Perspective," Government and Opposition, Vol.39, Issue 2,2004, p.377.
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[5]联合国开发计划署(UNDP):www.undp.org
[6]联合国贸易与发展大会(UNCTAD):温室气体排放交易：http://r0.unctad.org/ghg
[7]联合国气候变化框架公约清洁发展机制：http://unfccc.int/cdm
[8]联合国气候变化框架公约组织：www.unfccc.int
[9]美国发展中心：http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/energy
[10]美国国国务院海洋和国际环境科学事务局：http://www.state.gov/g/ocs/
[11]美国国家海洋和大气管理局：http://www.noaa.gov/indcx.html
[12]美国国家航天局气候变化项目：http://climate.nasa.gov/
[13]美国环保局：http://www.epa.gov/
[14]美国加州环保局空气资源委员会：http://www.arb.ca.gov/homepage.htm
[15]美国能源部：www.energy.gov
[16]美国气候变化研究信息办公室：http://www.gcrio.org/
[17]美国全球变化研究计划：http://www.globalchange.gov/
[18]美国全球气候变化科学研究计划：www.climatescience.gov
[19]皮尔全球气候变化中心：http://www.pewclimate.org/
[20]气候变化和能源再利用组织：www.climateark.org
[21]气候变化行动网：www.climnet.org
[22]气候技术倡议(CTI):www.climatetech.net
[23]乔治·梅森大学气候变化传媒中心：http://www.climatechangecommunication.org/index.cfm
[24]全球发展中心气候变化项目：http://www.cgdev.org/section/topics/climate_change
[25]全球公共政策研究所：http://www.gppi.net/
[26]全球环境基金组织(GEF):www.gefweb.org
[27]世界气象组织(WMO):www.wmo.ch
[28]世界银行：www.worldbank.org
[29]世界资源研究所：http://www.wri.org/
[30]廷德尔气候变化研究中心：http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/index.html
[31]英国气候变化委员会：http://www.theccc.org.uk/
[32]政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC):www.ipcc.ch