对中国电力系统建立RPS及REC交易市场的研究
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摘要
电力行业是国民经济的重要基础产业之一,是社会公用事业的重要组成部分。我国历来十分重视电力工业的改革和发展,并多次对电力体制进行变革。经过2002年的电力体制改革,电力系统出现了重构,原先的可再生能源激励政策与现阶段的发展需求对接出现问题,因而建立符合我国国情和发展阶段的新型可再生能源激励政策是当务之急。
现在越来越多的发达国家开始采用可再生能源配额制(RPS),或正在做相关的基础研究和应用研究,以期在不远的将来能够逐步应用这种新型的可再生能源制度,或者将RPS作为一项补充政策。RPS最大的优势是充分发挥市场机制的作用,最大程度减少政府干预。总结发达国家的应用经验,分析我国电力系统的特点,寻找适合我国国情和发展程度的RPS,以及相关配套政策制度,这对推动我国电力系统改革是非常重要的。
本文以我国现阶段积极发展可再生能源面临的现状为背景,考察中国可再生能源发电技术和电力市场的现阶段状况,运用SPSS模型预测我国未来十年的电力消费量。选择适合中国的可再生能源激励政策,引入可再生能源发电配额制政策(RPS)和可再生能源证书(REC)的概念。在总结国内外实践经验的基础上,依据我国电力市场现状,初步设计可再生能源发电配额制政策。建立数学模型,定量分析REC市场的供求均衡、价格机制和敏感性分析,初步设计可再生能源证书交易市场。
最后本文分析RPS制度的实施对我国电力制度改革带来的效益,以及该政策模式实施过程中可能遇到的障碍,并分别提出了建议,对今后相关研究和政策选择具有一定的参考意义。
The Chinese government has kept attention on the reform of electrical power industry and taken action to promote reform, as it is one of the most important national economically foundamental industries and key part of public utilities. However, the previous policies for renewable energy development could not any more meet the emerging requirements right now, after the reform of the electrical power system in 2002 when the restructure of the power industry has been carried out. Therefore, it becomes a top priority to make the appropriate policies to promote renewable energy development.
More and more developed countries are doing the fundamental research and applied research, in order to establish the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) as the leading reneawable energy policy or as supplementary policy, which can minimize the government's involvement and maximize the market advantage. According to the practical experience of the implementation of RPS policies in developed countries, considering characteristics of electric power industry in China, it is significant to carry out the study of RPS and relevant policies which are adoptive to the conditions in China as well as the reform of the electrical power system.
This paper introduces Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Renewable Energy Credits (REC) which is in line with the renewable energy incentive policies on status of renewable energy development in China. On the base of the practical experience in domestic and abroad, as well as the forecast of the electric power consumption in ten years through SPSS software, it preliminarily designs Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) which is suitable for the electrical power market in China, as well as Renewable Energy Credits (REC) market by means of quantitatively analyzing supply-and-demand equilibrium, price mechanism and sensitivity analysis.
Finally, this paper analyzes the benefits brought by RPS to electrical power system, as well as some possible obstacles in practical operation, and puts forward relevant suggestions for future study and policy making.
现在越来越多的发达国家开始采用可再生能源配额制(RPS),或正在做相关的基础研究和应用研究,以期在不远的将来能够逐步应用这种新型的可再生能源制度,或者将RPS作为一项补充政策。RPS最大的优势是充分发挥市场机制的作用,最大程度减少政府干预。总结发达国家的应用经验,分析我国电力系统的特点,寻找适合我国国情和发展程度的RPS,以及相关配套政策制度,这对推动我国电力系统改革是非常重要的。
本文以我国现阶段积极发展可再生能源面临的现状为背景,考察中国可再生能源发电技术和电力市场的现阶段状况,运用SPSS模型预测我国未来十年的电力消费量。选择适合中国的可再生能源激励政策,引入可再生能源发电配额制政策(RPS)和可再生能源证书(REC)的概念。在总结国内外实践经验的基础上,依据我国电力市场现状,初步设计可再生能源发电配额制政策。建立数学模型,定量分析REC市场的供求均衡、价格机制和敏感性分析,初步设计可再生能源证书交易市场。
最后本文分析RPS制度的实施对我国电力制度改革带来的效益,以及该政策模式实施过程中可能遇到的障碍,并分别提出了建议,对今后相关研究和政策选择具有一定的参考意义。
The Chinese government has kept attention on the reform of electrical power industry and taken action to promote reform, as it is one of the most important national economically foundamental industries and key part of public utilities. However, the previous policies for renewable energy development could not any more meet the emerging requirements right now, after the reform of the electrical power system in 2002 when the restructure of the power industry has been carried out. Therefore, it becomes a top priority to make the appropriate policies to promote renewable energy development.
More and more developed countries are doing the fundamental research and applied research, in order to establish the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) as the leading reneawable energy policy or as supplementary policy, which can minimize the government's involvement and maximize the market advantage. According to the practical experience of the implementation of RPS policies in developed countries, considering characteristics of electric power industry in China, it is significant to carry out the study of RPS and relevant policies which are adoptive to the conditions in China as well as the reform of the electrical power system.
This paper introduces Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and Renewable Energy Credits (REC) which is in line with the renewable energy incentive policies on status of renewable energy development in China. On the base of the practical experience in domestic and abroad, as well as the forecast of the electric power consumption in ten years through SPSS software, it preliminarily designs Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) which is suitable for the electrical power market in China, as well as Renewable Energy Credits (REC) market by means of quantitatively analyzing supply-and-demand equilibrium, price mechanism and sensitivity analysis.
Finally, this paper analyzes the benefits brought by RPS to electrical power system, as well as some possible obstacles in practical operation, and puts forward relevant suggestions for future study and policy making.
引文
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