基于生态安全与农业安全目标下的农业水资源利用与管理研究
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摘要
从1979年改革开放以来,我国经济持续高速增长已有30年。虽然这种高速增长对我国经济和社会发展来说十分必要,但无可否认的是,它是建立在过量消耗资源的基础之上的。水资源作为一种十分重要的特殊资源,我们必须高度关注经济增长所产生的水资源承载力问题。现阶段,我国农业用水占社会总用水量的70%以上,农业用水过多地挤占了工业用水和生态用水,成为制约农业和整个国民经济发展的突出问题。在经济高速发展的转型时期,水资源数量短缺和质量下降已经成为制约经济发展的“瓶颈”,水资源的利用与配置失当在一定程度上影响着农业安全和社会稳定,而且波及到了生态系统的循环效率。如何高效管理农业用水,提高其利用效率是当前迫切需要解决的问题。
整个论文着眼于生态安全和农业安全双重目标,用资源可持续利用的思想来研究农业水资源管理问题。本文试图运用经济学的分析范式,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,以农业经济学、资源与环境经济学、可持续发展理论为理论基础,对中国农业水资源利用与管理问题进行研究。主要研究内容包括生态安全和农业安全状态评价,农业水资源利用效率,农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets关系拟合,微观主体水资源利用分析和农业用水管理政策等。论文主要从农户的节水决策、农户降低化肥施用决策、用水管理组织模式变革绩效、灌溉投资节水替代作用和水价补贴的角度深入探讨提升农业水资源利用效率、增进农民乃至社会福利的具体政策和实施路径,确保在生态和农业双重安全目标下,农业水资源向工业和生活用水转移。
论文通过分析得出如下结论:
(1) 1997-2006年的10年间,中国农业安全呈现稳定上升趋势,农业水资源生态安全总体上呈下降趋势,截至2006年,中国农业水资源利用状态离双重安全目标的实现距离有所拉大。
(2) 1999年以来,中国农业水资源利用整体上并没有表现出较高的技术效率水平,前沿面省份和其他省份之间效率的差距相对较大,大多数省份的效率水平较低,目前的低效率水平保障了农业安全,而损害了生态安全。同一时间跨度内水资源利用的低效率、下降的生态安全和上升的农业安全同时存在,证实了提高农业水资源利用效率,发展生态农业,减少农业生产对水资源面源污染是调整农业安全和生态安全目标冲突的重要模式。
(3)产业比重、人口密度、城市化都是影响农业用水总量的重要外生变量。农业用水与经济增长之间呈稳定性的N型曲线关系,全国大部分省份区目前处于N型曲线的下降阶段,但也要警惕农业用水量出现反弹趋势。要遏制农业用水量的上升趋势,则进一步推进水资源管理制度的改革深化以及大力普及节水技术便显得十分必要,并迫在眉睫。
(4)从农户的技术采纳和持续使用决策来看,个人特征、家庭特征、农户所处的外部环境特征、技术自身特征都是重要的影响变量。论文通过分析还得出户主年龄、科学施肥意愿、经营规模、耕地细碎化程度、耕地离家距离、农业劳动力比例和技术培训均对农户化肥施用量构成显著的影响。
(5)论文还认为,管理制度是提升用水效率不可或缺的手段,变革灌溉管理模式,参与式灌溉管理使灌溉水资源管理更有效率和持续性;灌溉投资与灌溉用水之间存在较大的替代弹性,增加灌溉资金的财政支持力度可起到节约灌溉用水的作用;两部制水价情况下“暗补改明补”的补贴制度目前具有节水激励作用。
本文可能的创新点在于:
(1)构建了一个新的分析框架,论文共同关注生态安全和农业安全双重目标研究农业水资源利用与管理问题。目前关于生态安全和农业安全的研究成果颇多,但从同一角度,关联并整合研究生态安全和农业安全的文献却很鲜见,即使存在,也大多是在文章之中零散地提及。本文从理论上探寻生态安全、农业安全和农业水资源利用之间的互动关系,并实证评价中国生态安全和农业安全的状态,拟合双安全的压力、状态和响应之间的耦合关系,进而对微观主体的用水行为和农业水资源管理的经济政策进行实证分析,构建了一个生态安全和农业安全双重目标下农业水资源利用与管理的系统分析框架。
(2)扩展了实证方法的应用范围,论文以全要素生产率理论为理论框架,引入DEA方法,在省际层面上评价农业水资源利用效率,并沿用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论假说,验证中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说。已有文献多用比值分析法来评价水资源效率,计算的是单要素生产率,忽视了区域内资本、劳动力等要素的相互替代和对生产率的贡献作用,DEA方法允许多指标投入和多指标产出,考虑了实际生产中所投入的其他生产要素。农业用水Kuznets假说验证是在经济增长的框架下考察农业用水量变动的阶段性趋势,虽然对于环境污染与经济增长、工业用水与经济增长之间的关系成为近年来学者探讨的热点,但针对农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说开展实证研究,却较少发现有价值的研究文献。
(3)取得了一系列有价值的研究结论。通过理论和实证的系统分析得出了“我国农业安全呈逐年上升趋势,生态安全程度有所降低,农业水资源利用效率整体偏低;未来应考虑如何更有效地改革农业用水管理机制,普及节水技术;农户的个人特征、家庭禀赋特征、外部环境特征是影响其节水决策的重要因素;灌溉投资和水价‘暗补改明补'等经济手段具有明显的节水激励效应”的系列结论,根据分析结果,提出了多项具有可操作性的政策建议,这对提升农业用水效率以保障生态与农业双重安全目标具有重要的理论和实践指导价值。
Since the reform and opening-up in 1979, China's economy has been growing at high speed continuously for more than 30 years. Although high-speed growth is very important for China's economic and social development, it is beyond question that we must also recognize that such high-speed growth to some extent, is built on the basis of excessive consumption of resources. Water resources is the quite valuable and unique one in all of the resources, so we must pay great attention to the water resources carrying capacity problem caused by economic growth. At present, the agricultural water accounts for more than 70 percents in the total consumption of national economy in China. Too much industrial water and ecological water was occupied by agricultural water, which has become a prominent problem restricting the development of agriculture and the entire national economy. In the transition period of high-speed economic development, the quantity shortages and the quality decline of water resources has become the "bottleneck" restricting economic development. The inappropriate utilization and allocation of water resources has affected the agricultural security and social stability in a way, also has spread to the ecosystem system and even influence its cycle efficiency. How to manage the agricultural water efficiently and improve the utilization efficiency is an urgent problem needs to be resolved as quickly as possible.
The whole dissertation focuses on the dual goals of ecological security and agricultural security, using the guideline of sustainable utilization to study the issue of agricultural water resources management. Based on the theoretical basis of the Agricultural Economics, Resources and Environmental Economics, Sustainable Development Theory, this dissertation attempts to use analysis standard model of economics and adopts the way of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis to study the utilization and management issues of China's agricultural water. The main research contents include the state evaluation of ecological and agricultural security, the utilization efficiency of agricultural water, the Kuznets curve fitting between agricultural water use and economic growth, the micro-analysis of water resources use, and the management policies of agricultural water, etc. In order to ensure that agricultural water resources can be transferred to industrial and domestic water under the dual goal of ecological security and agricultural security, the dissertation search for the implementation path and specific policies to enhance the efficiency of water use in agriculture and to promote farmers and society welfare by deep analysis, mainly from these prospective, such as the farmers' water-saving decision-making, the farmers' reducing fertilizer amount decision-making, the performance of reform in water management organizational model, the subsititution function of water-saving irrigation investment, the water price subsidies, and so on.
Through analysis, the conclusions of the dissertation are as follows. Firstly, from 1997 to 2006, China's agriculture security has taken on a stable upward trend; ecological security of agricultural water resources trends to deterioration in the overall. Up to 2006, the distance of ecological and agricultural security from their target is enlarged under agricultural water use condition at present.
Secondly, China's agricultural water use overall has not shown a higher level of technical efficiency since 1999. The gap of efficiency between provinces on frontier surface and other provinces is widening, and the efficiency in most of provinces is low. The current low efficiency level can protect agricultural security but can not ensure ecological security. In the same time span, the low utilization efficiency of water, the descending ecological security and increasing agricultural security testify that improving utilization efficiency, developing eco-agriculture and reducing non-point water pollution caused by agricultural production are important pattern to adjust the goal conflict between agricultural security and ecological security.
Thirdly, industrial proportion, population density, urbanization are the important exogenous variables influencing agricultural water total quantity. There exists stable N shaped relationship between agricultural water use and economic growth. Most of provinces are located at falling phase of N shaped curve now, but the rebound of water use quantity should be on guard. In order to hold back the rebound, it is quite necessary and urgent to promote the management system reform further and popularize water-saving technology.
Fourthly, characteristics of personal, family, external environment and technology itself are important affecting variables in the farmers' decision-making of adopting and sustainable using technology. By analyzing, the dissertation finds out householder's age, scientific fertilizer willingness, operating scale, arable land fragmentation, distance between land and home, agricultural labor proportion and technical training have significant impacts on the chemical fertilizer application amount.
Fifthly, the dissertation educes the conclusion that management system is an indispensable means to improve water use efficiency. The irrigation manage mode should be reformed to SIDD, which is more efficient and sustainable. There is great substitute elasticity between irrigation investment and irrigation water amount. There is a larger elasticity of substitution exists between irrigation investment and irrigation water, increasing financial support to irrigation funds can play the role of water-saving irrigation. In the case of two-part water price, the subsidy system of 'Implicit Subsidy Changed into Explicit Subsidy' has a water-saving incentive at present.
The innovative points of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the research perspective is relative novel. The dissertation study agricultural water resources under the dual target of agricultural security and ecological security. There are many papers on this topic, however, they study agricultural security and ecological security separately, and papers which take agricultural security and ecological security as dual target is lack. The interaction among agricultural water use patterns, ecological security and agricultural security is described by theoretical analysis, and their security states are empirical studied. At the same time, coupling relationship among pressure, state, response of agricultural security and ecological security is simulated. Furthermore, the dissertation makes empirical analysis on household's water-saving behavior and economic policies of water resources management. In a word, the dissertation builds the analytical framework of the agricultural water resources use and management under the dual targets of ecological security and agricultural security.
The second innovative point lies in the empirical method. Under the theoretical framework of Total Factor Productivity, the dissertation evaluates sub-provinces' utilization efficiency by DEA method and validates the Kuznets hypothesis between agricultural water use and economic growth. Other papers usually evaluate water resources efficiency by ratio method which calculates the single factor productivity and ignores the capital and labor factors' substitute and contribution function to productivity. Multiple input indexes and output indexes are allowed in DEA method, so other production factors could be included. The validation of Kuznets hypothesis of agricultural water use reviews the stage trend of water quantity under the framework of economic growth. Although the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth, and the one between industrial water use and economic growth become the research focus recently, the valuable papers on empirical analysis on hypothesis of Kuznets between agricultural water resources and economic growth is lack.
Thirdly, the dissertation obtains a series of valuable conclusion. China's agriculture security has taken on a stable upward trend, while ecological security of agricultural water resources trends to deterioration in the overall. Utilization efficiency is low on the whole. How to reform agricultural water management mechanism effectively and popularize water-saving technology should be considered in future. Characteristics of personal, family endowment, external environment are all important affecting variables in household's water-saving decision-making. Irrigation funds and subsidy system of 'Implicit Subsidy Changed into Explicit Subsidy' can play the role of water-saving. According to these conclusions, many operable measures are put forward. These measures have important theoretical and practical guiding value for enhancing water utilization efficiency to ensure ecological security and agricultural security.
整个论文着眼于生态安全和农业安全双重目标,用资源可持续利用的思想来研究农业水资源管理问题。本文试图运用经济学的分析范式,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,以农业经济学、资源与环境经济学、可持续发展理论为理论基础,对中国农业水资源利用与管理问题进行研究。主要研究内容包括生态安全和农业安全状态评价,农业水资源利用效率,农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets关系拟合,微观主体水资源利用分析和农业用水管理政策等。论文主要从农户的节水决策、农户降低化肥施用决策、用水管理组织模式变革绩效、灌溉投资节水替代作用和水价补贴的角度深入探讨提升农业水资源利用效率、增进农民乃至社会福利的具体政策和实施路径,确保在生态和农业双重安全目标下,农业水资源向工业和生活用水转移。
论文通过分析得出如下结论:
(1) 1997-2006年的10年间,中国农业安全呈现稳定上升趋势,农业水资源生态安全总体上呈下降趋势,截至2006年,中国农业水资源利用状态离双重安全目标的实现距离有所拉大。
(2) 1999年以来,中国农业水资源利用整体上并没有表现出较高的技术效率水平,前沿面省份和其他省份之间效率的差距相对较大,大多数省份的效率水平较低,目前的低效率水平保障了农业安全,而损害了生态安全。同一时间跨度内水资源利用的低效率、下降的生态安全和上升的农业安全同时存在,证实了提高农业水资源利用效率,发展生态农业,减少农业生产对水资源面源污染是调整农业安全和生态安全目标冲突的重要模式。
(3)产业比重、人口密度、城市化都是影响农业用水总量的重要外生变量。农业用水与经济增长之间呈稳定性的N型曲线关系,全国大部分省份区目前处于N型曲线的下降阶段,但也要警惕农业用水量出现反弹趋势。要遏制农业用水量的上升趋势,则进一步推进水资源管理制度的改革深化以及大力普及节水技术便显得十分必要,并迫在眉睫。
(4)从农户的技术采纳和持续使用决策来看,个人特征、家庭特征、农户所处的外部环境特征、技术自身特征都是重要的影响变量。论文通过分析还得出户主年龄、科学施肥意愿、经营规模、耕地细碎化程度、耕地离家距离、农业劳动力比例和技术培训均对农户化肥施用量构成显著的影响。
(5)论文还认为,管理制度是提升用水效率不可或缺的手段,变革灌溉管理模式,参与式灌溉管理使灌溉水资源管理更有效率和持续性;灌溉投资与灌溉用水之间存在较大的替代弹性,增加灌溉资金的财政支持力度可起到节约灌溉用水的作用;两部制水价情况下“暗补改明补”的补贴制度目前具有节水激励作用。
本文可能的创新点在于:
(1)构建了一个新的分析框架,论文共同关注生态安全和农业安全双重目标研究农业水资源利用与管理问题。目前关于生态安全和农业安全的研究成果颇多,但从同一角度,关联并整合研究生态安全和农业安全的文献却很鲜见,即使存在,也大多是在文章之中零散地提及。本文从理论上探寻生态安全、农业安全和农业水资源利用之间的互动关系,并实证评价中国生态安全和农业安全的状态,拟合双安全的压力、状态和响应之间的耦合关系,进而对微观主体的用水行为和农业水资源管理的经济政策进行实证分析,构建了一个生态安全和农业安全双重目标下农业水资源利用与管理的系统分析框架。
(2)扩展了实证方法的应用范围,论文以全要素生产率理论为理论框架,引入DEA方法,在省际层面上评价农业水资源利用效率,并沿用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论假说,验证中国农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说。已有文献多用比值分析法来评价水资源效率,计算的是单要素生产率,忽视了区域内资本、劳动力等要素的相互替代和对生产率的贡献作用,DEA方法允许多指标投入和多指标产出,考虑了实际生产中所投入的其他生产要素。农业用水Kuznets假说验证是在经济增长的框架下考察农业用水量变动的阶段性趋势,虽然对于环境污染与经济增长、工业用水与经济增长之间的关系成为近年来学者探讨的热点,但针对农业用水与经济增长的Kuznets假说开展实证研究,却较少发现有价值的研究文献。
(3)取得了一系列有价值的研究结论。通过理论和实证的系统分析得出了“我国农业安全呈逐年上升趋势,生态安全程度有所降低,农业水资源利用效率整体偏低;未来应考虑如何更有效地改革农业用水管理机制,普及节水技术;农户的个人特征、家庭禀赋特征、外部环境特征是影响其节水决策的重要因素;灌溉投资和水价‘暗补改明补'等经济手段具有明显的节水激励效应”的系列结论,根据分析结果,提出了多项具有可操作性的政策建议,这对提升农业用水效率以保障生态与农业双重安全目标具有重要的理论和实践指导价值。
Since the reform and opening-up in 1979, China's economy has been growing at high speed continuously for more than 30 years. Although high-speed growth is very important for China's economic and social development, it is beyond question that we must also recognize that such high-speed growth to some extent, is built on the basis of excessive consumption of resources. Water resources is the quite valuable and unique one in all of the resources, so we must pay great attention to the water resources carrying capacity problem caused by economic growth. At present, the agricultural water accounts for more than 70 percents in the total consumption of national economy in China. Too much industrial water and ecological water was occupied by agricultural water, which has become a prominent problem restricting the development of agriculture and the entire national economy. In the transition period of high-speed economic development, the quantity shortages and the quality decline of water resources has become the "bottleneck" restricting economic development. The inappropriate utilization and allocation of water resources has affected the agricultural security and social stability in a way, also has spread to the ecosystem system and even influence its cycle efficiency. How to manage the agricultural water efficiently and improve the utilization efficiency is an urgent problem needs to be resolved as quickly as possible.
The whole dissertation focuses on the dual goals of ecological security and agricultural security, using the guideline of sustainable utilization to study the issue of agricultural water resources management. Based on the theoretical basis of the Agricultural Economics, Resources and Environmental Economics, Sustainable Development Theory, this dissertation attempts to use analysis standard model of economics and adopts the way of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis to study the utilization and management issues of China's agricultural water. The main research contents include the state evaluation of ecological and agricultural security, the utilization efficiency of agricultural water, the Kuznets curve fitting between agricultural water use and economic growth, the micro-analysis of water resources use, and the management policies of agricultural water, etc. In order to ensure that agricultural water resources can be transferred to industrial and domestic water under the dual goal of ecological security and agricultural security, the dissertation search for the implementation path and specific policies to enhance the efficiency of water use in agriculture and to promote farmers and society welfare by deep analysis, mainly from these prospective, such as the farmers' water-saving decision-making, the farmers' reducing fertilizer amount decision-making, the performance of reform in water management organizational model, the subsititution function of water-saving irrigation investment, the water price subsidies, and so on.
Through analysis, the conclusions of the dissertation are as follows. Firstly, from 1997 to 2006, China's agriculture security has taken on a stable upward trend; ecological security of agricultural water resources trends to deterioration in the overall. Up to 2006, the distance of ecological and agricultural security from their target is enlarged under agricultural water use condition at present.
Secondly, China's agricultural water use overall has not shown a higher level of technical efficiency since 1999. The gap of efficiency between provinces on frontier surface and other provinces is widening, and the efficiency in most of provinces is low. The current low efficiency level can protect agricultural security but can not ensure ecological security. In the same time span, the low utilization efficiency of water, the descending ecological security and increasing agricultural security testify that improving utilization efficiency, developing eco-agriculture and reducing non-point water pollution caused by agricultural production are important pattern to adjust the goal conflict between agricultural security and ecological security.
Thirdly, industrial proportion, population density, urbanization are the important exogenous variables influencing agricultural water total quantity. There exists stable N shaped relationship between agricultural water use and economic growth. Most of provinces are located at falling phase of N shaped curve now, but the rebound of water use quantity should be on guard. In order to hold back the rebound, it is quite necessary and urgent to promote the management system reform further and popularize water-saving technology.
Fourthly, characteristics of personal, family, external environment and technology itself are important affecting variables in the farmers' decision-making of adopting and sustainable using technology. By analyzing, the dissertation finds out householder's age, scientific fertilizer willingness, operating scale, arable land fragmentation, distance between land and home, agricultural labor proportion and technical training have significant impacts on the chemical fertilizer application amount.
Fifthly, the dissertation educes the conclusion that management system is an indispensable means to improve water use efficiency. The irrigation manage mode should be reformed to SIDD, which is more efficient and sustainable. There is great substitute elasticity between irrigation investment and irrigation water amount. There is a larger elasticity of substitution exists between irrigation investment and irrigation water, increasing financial support to irrigation funds can play the role of water-saving irrigation. In the case of two-part water price, the subsidy system of 'Implicit Subsidy Changed into Explicit Subsidy' has a water-saving incentive at present.
The innovative points of the dissertation are as follows.
Firstly, the research perspective is relative novel. The dissertation study agricultural water resources under the dual target of agricultural security and ecological security. There are many papers on this topic, however, they study agricultural security and ecological security separately, and papers which take agricultural security and ecological security as dual target is lack. The interaction among agricultural water use patterns, ecological security and agricultural security is described by theoretical analysis, and their security states are empirical studied. At the same time, coupling relationship among pressure, state, response of agricultural security and ecological security is simulated. Furthermore, the dissertation makes empirical analysis on household's water-saving behavior and economic policies of water resources management. In a word, the dissertation builds the analytical framework of the agricultural water resources use and management under the dual targets of ecological security and agricultural security.
The second innovative point lies in the empirical method. Under the theoretical framework of Total Factor Productivity, the dissertation evaluates sub-provinces' utilization efficiency by DEA method and validates the Kuznets hypothesis between agricultural water use and economic growth. Other papers usually evaluate water resources efficiency by ratio method which calculates the single factor productivity and ignores the capital and labor factors' substitute and contribution function to productivity. Multiple input indexes and output indexes are allowed in DEA method, so other production factors could be included. The validation of Kuznets hypothesis of agricultural water use reviews the stage trend of water quantity under the framework of economic growth. Although the relationship between environment pollution and economic growth, and the one between industrial water use and economic growth become the research focus recently, the valuable papers on empirical analysis on hypothesis of Kuznets between agricultural water resources and economic growth is lack.
Thirdly, the dissertation obtains a series of valuable conclusion. China's agriculture security has taken on a stable upward trend, while ecological security of agricultural water resources trends to deterioration in the overall. Utilization efficiency is low on the whole. How to reform agricultural water management mechanism effectively and popularize water-saving technology should be considered in future. Characteristics of personal, family endowment, external environment are all important affecting variables in household's water-saving decision-making. Irrigation funds and subsidy system of 'Implicit Subsidy Changed into Explicit Subsidy' can play the role of water-saving. According to these conclusions, many operable measures are put forward. These measures have important theoretical and practical guiding value for enhancing water utilization efficiency to ensure ecological security and agricultural security.
引文
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[2]资料来自中国环境科学研究院首席专家、生态所所长高吉喜2006年在“可持续农业:全球的挑战”论坛上的报告。
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[1]项目实施期为2004年9月至2008年12月。
[2]徐成波,中英农村水利改革项目农民用水户协会建设经验与体会,中国农村水利,2008-08-13,http://219.238.161.100/html/1222235049696.html。
[1]本节所用数据来自《利用英国国际发展部赠款实施“面向贫困人口的农村水利改革项目”(简称DFID项目)》资料,感谢甘肃省农业综合开发办公室提供相关资料。
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[2]利用英国政府赠款实施的“面向贫困人口的农村水利改革项目”,是在国际社会大力倡导参与式灌溉管理以及我国实施小型农村水利工程管理体制改革这一大环境下诞生的。该项目由世界银行负责监督管理,水利部负责组织实施。项目的主要目标是通过在项目区建立和完善农民用水户协会,总结经验,支持农村小型水利设施管理体制改革,并使贫困地区的农民特别是妇女等弱势群体受益。该项目以农民用水户协会建设为主要内容,具体包括政策研究与宣传、能力建设、用水户协会示范与推广、监测评价等内容。
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[2]资料来自中国环境科学研究院首席专家、生态所所长高吉喜2006年在“可持续农业:全球的挑战”论坛上的报告。
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[1]项目实施期为2004年9月至2008年12月。
[2]徐成波,中英农村水利改革项目农民用水户协会建设经验与体会,中国农村水利,2008-08-13,http://219.238.161.100/html/1222235049696.html。
[1]本节所用数据来自《利用英国国际发展部赠款实施“面向贫困人口的农村水利改革项目”(简称DFID项目)》资料,感谢甘肃省农业综合开发办公室提供相关资料。
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