碳关税对苏州工业园区企业出口的影响及其对策研究
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摘要
随着全球化的发展,国际贸易对环境的影响越来越显著,近年来碳排放的影响及减排责任分配成为国际上较为关注的话题。尽管在国家层面开展碳减排行动的议题已随着2012年京都议定书第一期的结束而有所消减,但是,以保护气候或者环境为名的条款仍旧受到支持和拥护,其中,“碳关税”受到一些欧美发达国家和地区的追捧。根据欧盟航空碳税政策,从2012年1月1日起,所有在欧盟境内飞行的航空公司的碳排放量都将受限;与此同时,美国未来也将向发展中国家如中国、印度、巴西等征收碳关税。综合当前的国际贸易形式、碳减排现状及未来的发展趋势等多方因素,中国作为第一碳排放大国以及主要的劳动密集型和能源密集型出口国家,为出口国承担了大量的碳排放。在碳关税发展走向尚不明确的当下,中国的国家和地方层面亟需在贸易碳排放及贸易碳关税问题上及早做好理论研究,以便提供充足的博弈基础和政策应对措施。
     本文以此中心为出发点,以苏州工业园区这一国家综合排名前三、出口经济占据重要地位的生态工业园为研究案例,在“碳关税”量化的基础上通过分析碳关税对当地出口贸易、重点出口行业的外贸出口影响,着重研究地方外贸出口企业的应对管措施。首先,本文介绍了隐含碳及碳关税的相关机理;其次,以工业园区相关部门获得的生产、出口数据计算了2008-2011年园区因出口贸易出口而产生的碳排放及在三种不同碳关税率下的碳关税,结果显示到2011年,园区因货物出口隐含碳排放而需要支付的碳关税达到4.1亿元,占当年出口总额的0.2%;再次,以情景分析方法推测了2012-2020年间的碳关税变化趋势及主要受影响的行业,包括造纸及纸制品业、纺织业、非金属矿物制品业等。最后,结合不同行业的影响程度不同,本论文分别从企业生产环节、管理环节等提出了碳关税的应对措施。一方面,企业需要积极秉承绿色发展理念,提高企业生产效率;同时,积极开拓新型市场,建立更为广阔的发展空间。
Along with globalization and its increasing impact on environment, greenhouse gas(GHG) emission and duty allocation of GHG mitigation are becoming hot topics forpoliticians and academics around the world. Although the international enthusiasm forGHG mitigation at country level has cooled down with the ending of Phase I of The Kyotoprotocol in2012, appeal for protecting climate and environment still arouse support,among which “carbon tax” was approved by Europe and America. According to Europeanaviation carbon tax policy, since January1,2012, all flights within the territory of theEuropean Union are granted with limited GHG emissions; whilst United State may chargedeveloping ocuntries, such as China, India and Brazil for carbon tariff. Consider multiplefactors including international trade status, GHG emission status and future trend, thatChina is the largest GHG contributor and labour-and energy-intensive exporter, it burdensmuch GHG emissions for those importers, which mean it has to pay carbon tariff for them.Thus, China state and local governments are in urgent needs to analyze the influence ofcarbon tariff and solutions to provide scientific and solid spport for internationalnegotiation and policy making.
     To analyze and solve the problem, the paper took Suzhou Industrial Park (SIP), whichranks first in China and rely heavily on export, as study case. We caculated local carbontariff, analyzed its influence on local economy and major export industries, to figure outthe relevant countermeasures for enterprises. First, the mechanism of carbon leakage andcarbon tariff were introduced, following which, we calculated embodied carbon and carbontariff with three kinds of tariff rate from2008to2011, results show that SIP should pay for0.41billion RMB as carbon triff in2011, the charge amount accounted for0.2%of thetotal export. Then, Scenario Analysis Method (SAM) was applied to predict thedevelopment trend of carbon tariff during2012and2020and major influenced industries,which include paper manufacturing, dye and nonmetallic mineral manufacturing industry.Finally, the paper provides different countermeasures to cope with carbon tariff from aspects of production and management, in accordance with the impact degree of differentindustries. Enterprises should improve production efficiency and explore new market.
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