热带太平洋风应力场和海温场相互作用的诊断分析和数值试验研究
|
摘要
本文根据NCEP/NCAR再分析海温、850hpa风场资料以及FSU风应力资料，利用诊断分析和数值模拟方法研究了热带太平洋风应力(风)场和海温的相互作用的关系。研究结果表明，前期风应力距平场与Nino3区SSTA有很好的相关关系，这种相关性超前8个月时就有所显现。影响Nino3区SSTA的纬向风应力区域的位置随风应力超前的时间缩短由东太平洋向中太平洋扩展，经向风应力区域的位置由东太平洋和西太平洋向中太平洋移动。数值试验试验结果表明，强相关区域的风应力对形成和维持热带太平洋SST的气候场的作用不明显，而对SST的年际变率有重要贡献；相反，强相关区域以外的风应力对形成和维持热带太平洋SST的气候场起重要作用，但是对SST的年际变率所起的作用很不理想。在风应力场和海温场SVD分析的基础上所作的数值试验证实，只在协方差平方和贡献最大的前4个风应力场的强迫下就可形成与实际相符的气候平均海温场和海温异常。对El Nino类型的研究中发现，80年代以前以东部型为主，80年代以后以中部型为主，并且两类El Nino前期的低层风场的特征也有很大的不同。此外，平均而言，风应力场对两类El Nino作用的关键区也有所不同，而且纬向风应力对东部型El Nino有重要作用，经向风应力对中部型El Nino的产生则起着至关重要的作用。
This paper studies the interaction relationship between the Wind Stress (wind) field over the tropical Pacific and SST by use of the diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation on the basis of SST,850hpa wind data from NCEP/NCAR and FSU wind stress data. The results show that the leading wind stress anomalies field is correlated well with Nino3 SSTA and the correlation has appeared when the wind stress is prior to Nino3 SSTA by 8 months. With the reduction of the leading time, the location of the zonal wind stress area influencing Nino3 SSTA expands toward the middle Pacific from the eastern Pacific, as well as the meridional wind stress in the eastern Pacific and the western Pacific. Numerical studies suggest that the wind stress over strong correlation areas which contributes to the interannual variance of SST is of little role on the development and maintenance of climatological state of the tropical Pacific, Instead of the wind stress over non-strong correlation areas. The numerical tests on the basis of SVD analysis between the wind stress over the tropical Pacific and SST demonstrate that the tropical Pacific only forced by the first 4 wind stress with the biggest percentage of the sum of square covariance can form climatological field and SST anomalies almost coincident with the practical cases. Also find that there mainly occur the eastern El Nino before 1980s, instead , mainly occurring the middle El Nino before 1980s, and there are obvious differences for the leading wind field pattern associated with the two kinds of El Nino events. Moreover, as for average state, the crucial areas of wind stress acting on the two kinds of El Nino exist different sites, and the zonal wind stress play a important role on eastern El Nino models, the meridional wind stress ,however, play a significant effect on the middle El Nino models.
This paper studies the interaction relationship between the Wind Stress (wind) field over the tropical Pacific and SST by use of the diagnostic analysis and numerical simulation on the basis of SST,850hpa wind data from NCEP/NCAR and FSU wind stress data. The results show that the leading wind stress anomalies field is correlated well with Nino3 SSTA and the correlation has appeared when the wind stress is prior to Nino3 SSTA by 8 months. With the reduction of the leading time, the location of the zonal wind stress area influencing Nino3 SSTA expands toward the middle Pacific from the eastern Pacific, as well as the meridional wind stress in the eastern Pacific and the western Pacific. Numerical studies suggest that the wind stress over strong correlation areas which contributes to the interannual variance of SST is of little role on the development and maintenance of climatological state of the tropical Pacific, Instead of the wind stress over non-strong correlation areas. The numerical tests on the basis of SVD analysis between the wind stress over the tropical Pacific and SST demonstrate that the tropical Pacific only forced by the first 4 wind stress with the biggest percentage of the sum of square covariance can form climatological field and SST anomalies almost coincident with the practical cases. Also find that there mainly occur the eastern El Nino before 1980s, instead , mainly occurring the middle El Nino before 1980s, and there are obvious differences for the leading wind field pattern associated with the two kinds of El Nino events. Moreover, as for average state, the crucial areas of wind stress acting on the two kinds of El Nino exist different sites, and the zonal wind stress play a important role on eastern El Nino models, the meridional wind stress ,however, play a significant effect on the middle El Nino models.
引文
[1] Bjerkness. J. Atmosphere teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1969, 97(3): 163～172
[2] 王绍武，赵宗慈．冬半年海洋与大气的相互作用．海洋学报，1980，2(2)：27～40
[3] 赵宗慈，王绍武，陈振华．大气与海洋相互作用的季节变化．长期天气预报论文集，66～73，北京，气象出版社，1982
[4] Wyrtki.k. El Nino-the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing, J.Phys. Oceanogr., 1975, 5(5): 572～584
[5] Rasmusson E M,Carpenter T H. Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nino. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1982, 110(5): 354～384
[6] Philander. S.G..H, T.Yamagata and Pacanowski.R.C. Unstable air-sea interactions in the tropics. J.Atmos. Sci., 1984, 41(4): 604～613
[7] 巢纪平，王彰贵．简单的海气耦合波-Rossby和Kelvin波的相互作用．气象学报，1990，48(1)：46～53
[8] Battisti.D.S and A.C.Hirst. Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J.Atmos. Sci., 1989, 46(12): 1687～1712
[9] Dewitt, David.G. The tropical ocean response to a change in solar forcing. J. climate, 2000, 13(6): 1137～1149
[10] 陈克明，张学洪，曾庆存．IAP CGCM模拟的热带区域年际气候变化的特征．气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文，第二辑，107～122，北京，气象出版社，1996
[11] Wan Bin. Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades. J.Climate, 1995, 8(2): 267～285
[12] Barnett. T.P. Variations in near-global sea level pressure. J.Atmos. Sci. 1985, 42(5): 478～501
[13] Meehl.G.A. The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1987,115(1): 27～50
[14] Yasunari.T Impact of Indian Monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean
system in the tropical Pacific. Meteor. Atmos.Phys 1990, 44(1): 29～41
[15] 施能，鲁建军，朱乾根，东亚冬、夏季风百年强度之书及其气候变化．南京气象学院学报，1996，19(2)：168～177
[16] 徐建军、朱乾根，施能．近百年东亚季风长期变化中主周期振荡的奇异谱分析．气象学报，1997，55(5)：620～627
[17] 徐建军，朱乾根，施能．近百年东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互关系及其年代际异常．大气科学，1997，2l(6)：641～648
[18] Cane.M.A. Modeling sea level during El Nino. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 1984, 14(3): 586～606
[19] Barnett. T.P. Prediction of El Nino 1982～1983. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1984, 112(7): 1403～1407
[20] 张人禾，黄荣辉．El Nino事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用Ⅰ，资料诊断和理论分析，大气科学，1998，22(4)：587～599
[21] 严帮良，张人禾．热带西太平洋风应力异常在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验．大气科学，2002，26(3)：315～329
[22] 管兆勇，刘宣飞．风应力的旋转和辐散分量在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验研究．南京气象学院学报，2001，24(4)：447～456
[23] Bruno Blanke, J. David Neelin, David Gutzler. Estimating the Effect of Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing on ENSO Irregularity. J. Climate. 1997, 10(7): 1473～1486
[24] 杨修群，邵慧．与ENSO相联系的热带太平洋典型风应力异常结构．热带气象学报，1998，14(1)：1～9
[25] Kutsuwada. K. Quasi-periodic variabilities of wind-stress fields over the Pacific Ocean related to ENSO events. J.Meteor. Soc.Japan, 1991, 69(6): 687～700
[26] 王盘兴，周伟灿等．气象向量场奇异值分解方法及其应用，南京气象学院学报，1997，20(2)：152～157
[27] J.D.Neelin, D.S.Battisti, A.C.Hirst 等. ENSO theory. J. Geo. Res. 1998, 103(C7): 14261～14290
[28] Koberle C, Philander S.G.H. On the process that control seasonal variations of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific ocean. Tellus, 1994, 46A(4): 481～496
[29] Goswmi. B.N, Rajendran K, Sengupta. D. Source of seasonality and scale
dependence of predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1997, 125(4): 846～858
[30] 严邦良，张人禾．热带西太平洋风应力异常在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验．大气科学，2002，26(3)：315～329
[31] M.A.Balmaseda, David.L.T.A and Michael. K.D. ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 1994, 46A(4): 497～511
[32] 蔡怡．ENSO知识讲座．海洋预报，2002，19(3)：73～77
[33] 张勤，丁一汇，山崎信雄．用一个简单海气耦合模式对20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺事件的预报试验．气象学报，1999，57(4)：397～407
[34] 吴洪宝．奇异谱和多通道奇异谱分析．气象教育与科技，1997，第4期，总第44期：1～10
[35] 施能．气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法．第二版，北京，气象出版社，2002
[36] Barnett. T.P. The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system. J.Climate., 1991, 4(3): 269～285
[37] Zou Li, Ni Yunqi. Diagnosis of low frequency component of ENSO variability—Part I: Global-scale dynamic characteristics of the component. Acta. Meteorologica.Sinica, 1996, 10(4): 419～429
[38] 符淙斌，全小伟，苏炳凯．用复EOF分析El Nino增暖的振幅和位相变化．科学通报，1987，32(16)：1241～1244
[39] Philander. S.G.H, R.C.Pacanowski. The oceanic response to cross-equatorial winds with application to coastal upwelling on low latitudes. Tellus, 1981, 33A(2): 201～210
[40] Xie.S.P. On the genesis of the equatorial annual cycle. J.Climate. 1994, 7(12): 2008～2013
[41] 徐建军．东亚季风-ENSO的年际与年代际变化及其相互作用．[学位论文]．南京：南京气象学院，1997，50～100
[42] Gill A. E and Rasmusson E.M. The 1982～1983 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature, 1983, 306(5940): 229～234.
[43] Cane.M.A.. Oceangraphic events during El Nino. Science, 1983, 222(4629): 1189～1195.
[44] 王绍武．1860～1979年期间的厄尔尼诺年．科学通报，1985，30(1)：
52～56．
[45]符淙斌，J．弗莱彻．“厄尔尼诺”(El Nino)时期赤道增暖的两种类型．科学通报，1985，30(8)：596～599．
[46]唐佑民，刘书华．两类El Nino事件太平洋海温异常时空结构的分析．热带气象学报，1994，10(2)：130～139．
[47]林学椿，于淑秋．厄尔尼诺与我国汛期降水．气象学报，1993，51(4)：434～441
[48]王绍武．1860—1979年的厄尔尼诺年．科学通报，1985，30(1)：52～56
[49]臧恒范，王绍武．1854—1987年期间的厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件．海洋学报，1991，13(1)：26～34
[50]战淑芸，杨淑瑞．1949—1987年间的厄尔尼诺现象分析．海洋学报，1989，11(4)：423～430
[2] 王绍武，赵宗慈．冬半年海洋与大气的相互作用．海洋学报，1980，2(2)：27～40
[3] 赵宗慈，王绍武，陈振华．大气与海洋相互作用的季节变化．长期天气预报论文集，66～73，北京，气象出版社，1982
[4] Wyrtki.k. El Nino-the dynamic response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to atmospheric forcing, J.Phys. Oceanogr., 1975, 5(5): 572～584
[5] Rasmusson E M,Carpenter T H. Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Nino. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1982, 110(5): 354～384
[6] Philander. S.G..H, T.Yamagata and Pacanowski.R.C. Unstable air-sea interactions in the tropics. J.Atmos. Sci., 1984, 41(4): 604～613
[7] 巢纪平，王彰贵．简单的海气耦合波-Rossby和Kelvin波的相互作用．气象学报，1990，48(1)：46～53
[8] Battisti.D.S and A.C.Hirst. Interannual variability in a tropical atmosphere-ocean model: influence of the basic state, ocean geometry and nonlinearity. J.Atmos. Sci., 1989, 46(12): 1687～1712
[9] Dewitt, David.G. The tropical ocean response to a change in solar forcing. J. climate, 2000, 13(6): 1137～1149
[10] 陈克明，张学洪，曾庆存．IAP CGCM模拟的热带区域年际气候变化的特征．气候变化规律及其数值模拟研究论文，第二辑，107～122，北京，气象出版社，1996
[11] Wan Bin. Interdecadal changes in El Nino onset in the last four decades. J.Climate, 1995, 8(2): 267～285
[12] Barnett. T.P. Variations in near-global sea level pressure. J.Atmos. Sci. 1985, 42(5): 478～501
[13] Meehl.G.A. The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean region. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1987,115(1): 27～50
[14] Yasunari.T Impact of Indian Monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean
system in the tropical Pacific. Meteor. Atmos.Phys 1990, 44(1): 29～41
[15] 施能，鲁建军，朱乾根，东亚冬、夏季风百年强度之书及其气候变化．南京气象学院学报，1996，19(2)：168～177
[16] 徐建军、朱乾根，施能．近百年东亚季风长期变化中主周期振荡的奇异谱分析．气象学报，1997，55(5)：620～627
[17] 徐建军，朱乾根，施能．近百年东亚冬季风与ENSO循环的相互关系及其年代际异常．大气科学，1997，2l(6)：641～648
[18] Cane.M.A. Modeling sea level during El Nino. J. Phys. Oceanogr, 1984, 14(3): 586～606
[19] Barnett. T.P. Prediction of El Nino 1982～1983. Mon. Wea. Rev. 1984, 112(7): 1403～1407
[20] 张人禾，黄荣辉．El Nino事件发生和消亡中热带太平洋纬向风应力的动力作用Ⅰ，资料诊断和理论分析，大气科学，1998，22(4)：587～599
[21] 严帮良，张人禾．热带西太平洋风应力异常在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验．大气科学，2002，26(3)：315～329
[22] 管兆勇，刘宣飞．风应力的旋转和辐散分量在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验研究．南京气象学院学报，2001，24(4)：447～456
[23] Bruno Blanke, J. David Neelin, David Gutzler. Estimating the Effect of Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing on ENSO Irregularity. J. Climate. 1997, 10(7): 1473～1486
[24] 杨修群，邵慧．与ENSO相联系的热带太平洋典型风应力异常结构．热带气象学报，1998，14(1)：1～9
[25] Kutsuwada. K. Quasi-periodic variabilities of wind-stress fields over the Pacific Ocean related to ENSO events. J.Meteor. Soc.Japan, 1991, 69(6): 687～700
[26] 王盘兴，周伟灿等．气象向量场奇异值分解方法及其应用，南京气象学院学报，1997，20(2)：152～157
[27] J.D.Neelin, D.S.Battisti, A.C.Hirst 等. ENSO theory. J. Geo. Res. 1998, 103(C7): 14261～14290
[28] Koberle C, Philander S.G.H. On the process that control seasonal variations of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific ocean. Tellus, 1994, 46A(4): 481～496
[29] Goswmi. B.N, Rajendran K, Sengupta. D. Source of seasonality and scale
dependence of predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1997, 125(4): 846～858
[30] 严邦良，张人禾．热带西太平洋风应力异常在ENSO循环中作用的数值试验．大气科学，2002，26(3)：315～329
[31] M.A.Balmaseda, David.L.T.A and Michael. K.D. ENSO prediction using a dynamical ocean model coupled to statistical atmospheres. Tellus, 1994, 46A(4): 497～511
[32] 蔡怡．ENSO知识讲座．海洋预报，2002，19(3)：73～77
[33] 张勤，丁一汇，山崎信雄．用一个简单海气耦合模式对20世纪90年代厄尔尼诺事件的预报试验．气象学报，1999，57(4)：397～407
[34] 吴洪宝．奇异谱和多通道奇异谱分析．气象教育与科技，1997，第4期，总第44期：1～10
[35] 施能．气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法．第二版，北京，气象出版社，2002
[36] Barnett. T.P. The interaction of multiple time scales in the tropical climate system. J.Climate., 1991, 4(3): 269～285
[37] Zou Li, Ni Yunqi. Diagnosis of low frequency component of ENSO variability—Part I: Global-scale dynamic characteristics of the component. Acta. Meteorologica.Sinica, 1996, 10(4): 419～429
[38] 符淙斌，全小伟，苏炳凯．用复EOF分析El Nino增暖的振幅和位相变化．科学通报，1987，32(16)：1241～1244
[39] Philander. S.G.H, R.C.Pacanowski. The oceanic response to cross-equatorial winds with application to coastal upwelling on low latitudes. Tellus, 1981, 33A(2): 201～210
[40] Xie.S.P. On the genesis of the equatorial annual cycle. J.Climate. 1994, 7(12): 2008～2013
[41] 徐建军．东亚季风-ENSO的年际与年代际变化及其相互作用．[学位论文]．南京：南京气象学院，1997，50～100
[42] Gill A. E and Rasmusson E.M. The 1982～1983 climate anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. Nature, 1983, 306(5940): 229～234.
[43] Cane.M.A.. Oceangraphic events during El Nino. Science, 1983, 222(4629): 1189～1195.
[44] 王绍武．1860～1979年期间的厄尔尼诺年．科学通报，1985，30(1)：
52～56．
[45]符淙斌，J．弗莱彻．“厄尔尼诺”(El Nino)时期赤道增暖的两种类型．科学通报，1985，30(8)：596～599．
[46]唐佑民，刘书华．两类El Nino事件太平洋海温异常时空结构的分析．热带气象学报，1994，10(2)：130～139．
[47]林学椿，于淑秋．厄尔尼诺与我国汛期降水．气象学报，1993，51(4)：434～441
[48]王绍武．1860—1979年的厄尔尼诺年．科学通报，1985，30(1)：52～56
[49]臧恒范，王绍武．1854—1987年期间的厄尔尼诺和反厄尔尼诺事件．海洋学报，1991，13(1)：26～34
[50]战淑芸，杨淑瑞．1949—1987年间的厄尔尼诺现象分析．海洋学报，1989，11(4)：423～430