影响会计盈余稳健性的三因素分析
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摘要
本文以会计盈余的稳健性作为切入点,试图揭示会计信息与其背后的制度安排之间的关系。在近十多年来的会计改革和资本市场改革中,会计盈余在资本市场中的地位举足轻重。它作为投资者决策参考的重要指标,不仅成为证券监管的手段,而且也是会计准则制定者精心打造的对象。本文探讨的主要内容,正是会计制度的变迁、公司控制权和上市公司监管环境的演进如何对会计盈余稳健性产生影响。
     基于这一思路,本文选取2000至2007年沪市A股上市公司作为样本,采用理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,在参阅大量国内外关于会计盈余稳健性文献的基础上,定性分析中国上市公司会计盈余稳健性影响因素,并运用Basu(1997)模型,对会计准则、公司控制权、证券监管与会计盈余稳健性进行了实证检验,分析各因素对会计盈余稳健性的影响。
     本文以此为主线,主要有以下六章内容:
     第一章导论。本章阐述了本文的研究背景、选题目的及意义、文献综述、本文研究方法与结构以及本文的主要贡献与不足。
     第二章盈余稳健性的理论分析和制度背景。本章着重从三个方面进行了分析:稳健性的定义、会计盈余稳健性产生的理论解释、会计盈余稳健性在我国相关制度中的体现。
     第三章研究设计。先指出本研究的样本及取样期间,并对主要数据进行了初步的描述,再通过对稳健性原则的分析,结合前面的制度背景,提出了三个假设,并在理论上分析了它的可能。最后给出本文所采用的Basu(1997)模型,然后讨论了本文所采用的其他模型。
     第四章实证结果与分析。本章选取了沪市A股2000-2007年的上市公司财务数据,就本文提出的三个假设分别进行回归分析,从实证上进行检验。
     第五章结论和对策建议。对本文的主要发现进行了总结,并结合所得的结论提出了一些对策建议。
     本文研究结果表明:(1)会计盈余的稳健性在总体上是存在的,而且不同年度也不尽相同。(2)积极贯彻国际通行的稳健会计政策的《企业会计制度》实施显著提升了上市公司会计盈余的稳健性,新准则的实施反而使稳健性有所下降。然而,单独对盈利公司所作的进一步研究却表明,2001-2007年会计盈余显示的稳健性特征主要是亏损公司“洗大澡”造成的。此结论与曲晓辉(2006)结论相同。(3)当大股东持股达到一定的比例即可以控制上市公司时,上市公司会计盈余的稳健性较差。这主要是由于大股东在掌握了一定的控制权以后,导致了剩余控制权大于剩余收益索取权,使得控股股东产生以合法或者法庭很难证实的方式谋取私人利益的动机。而且,他们也具有影响会计信息形成和发布的能力,使得会计信息成了他们谋取私人利益的工具。因此,大股东对上市公司的控制权越强,公司会计盈余的稳健性就越差。(4)2001年之后,随着证券监管力度的加大,良性的盈余稳健性在一定程度上得以释放。
     这些研究结论表明:(1)单纯转变会计准则并不能改善会计信息的质量,除非附以相配套的强有力的法律和执行机制。例如,加大对操纵盈余的上市公司的处罚力度,强化审计师的责任,加强上市公司管理层面临的法律责任。只有加强和完善与会计准则相配套的法律和执行机制,才能使会计准则的改进真正起到提高上市公司会计信息质量的作用。(2)会计信息与上市公司的监管环境之间的紧密联系。对于一个健康有效的资本市场,运转机制的核心在于让所有的投资者都能公开、公平的享受到任何一个有关的信息。信息披露的及时性、可靠性,反过来会推动上市公司自身质量的改善和融资机制健康的运行。因此,以信息披露特别是会计信息的及时准确披露为切入点进行证券监管,不仅抓住了公司治理机制的核心元素,更是抓住了资本市场有效运行的核心元素。
     本研究最后的启示是,会计的稳健性并不是改善会计信息质量的工具,它只是为资本市场的利益相关方解决利益不对称而存在的工具。高质量的会计准则是高质量会计信息的必要条件而非充分条件,只要市场的供给方并未产生对制造稳健性的动机,单纯的会计准则的变更不仅会加剧麻烦,而且会使稳健性原则失去原本的意义。目前当务之急是完善与新准则相配套的强有力的法律和执行机制,以确保企业会计准则体系的实施能够切实提高我国会计信息的有用性,这需要证券监管者、会计准则制定者和其他相关机构的紧密配合。
     本文的主要贡献在于:1、系统性的对我国会计盈余的稳健性进行了研究。本文采用了2000至2007年的数据来分析这种稳健性的变化。并对Basu(1997)模型在我国运用的可行性进行了检验。2、通过对我国会计制度的强制变迁与会计盈余稳健性关系的分析,本文清晰的指出了单纯转变会计准则并不能提升会计信息的稳健性,除非附以相配套的强有力的法律和执行机制。3、本文通过对我国上市公司监管环境与会计盈余稳健性关系的分析,明确指出了会计信息质量和制度安排之间的紧密联系。
     本文的研究,对于监管者、会计准则制定者、大股东理解会计信息在资本市场中的重要性,以及理解会计信息与监管环境之间的相互作用,进而努力培育供给和需求高质量会计信息的市场机制,具有重要意义。
This thesis tries to reveal the relationship between accounting numbers and regulations arrangement by research on earnings conservatism. As an important reference, accounting earnings, which has played a vital role in the reformation of both accounting systems and capital market, become not only the means of security supervision, but also the objectives of standard-setters' efforts. What the thesis works on is to find out how the special regulations background of listed firms affects earnings conservatism.
     Based on that, my sample consists of all firm-year observations from 2000 to 2007 in the CSMAR database. The paper uses and broaden the view of Basu(1997)model to make three inspections on the changes of earnings conservatism:(1) Compulsory institutional change; (2) Control power of the corporation;(3) Security regulations.
     The results show that in this paper: (1) earnings conservatism of the whole, there is, and different years are not the same. (2) actively carry out the stability of the international accounting policies of "enterprise accounting system" and the "new enterprise accounting system" significantly improve the implementation of the Public Company Accounting earnings conservatism. However, the profitability of individual companies but further studies showed that 2001-accounting surplus in 2007 showed that the conservatism of the main characteristics of the loss is "big bath wash". Qu Xiao-hui with this conclusion (2006) the same conclusion. (3) When the stock reaches a certain major shareholders that control the ratio of listed companies, listed companies accounting for the conservatism of poor earnings. This was mainly due to large shareholders have a certain amount of control, leading to the control of the remainder is greater than the remainder of the proceeds obtained from the right, making controlling shareholder to have a legitimate court or difficult to prove that the way to seek personal interests of the motive. In addition, they also have an impact on the formation of accounting information and the ability to publish so that they are seeking accounting information has become a private gain. As a result, major shareholders of listed companies, the stronger control over the company's accounting surplus on the stability of the worse. (4) in 2001, with the supervision of the securities increased stability of the healthy surplus to a certain extent, to be released.
     These findings show that: (1) changes in accounting standards alone will not improve the quality of accounting information, unless matched by a strong legal and enforcement mechanisms. For example, increase the earnings of listed companies to manipulate the punishment, to strengthen auditor's responsibility to strengthen the management of listed companies facing liability. Only by strengthening and improvement of accounting standards and match the legal and enforcement mechanisms in order to make real improvements in accounting standards play to improve the quality of accounting information of listed companies. (2) accounting information of listed companies and the regulatory environment in close contact. For a healthy and efficient capital markets, is the core of the operating mechanism so that all investors can open and fair access to any relevant information. Disclosure of information in a timely manner, reliability, in turn, will promote its listed companies to improve the quality of health financing mechanisms and the operation. As a result, the disclosure of information especially timely and accurate accounting information as a starting point for disclosure of securities regulation, corporate governance not only to seize a mechanism for the core elements, but also to seize the capital markets for the efficient functioning of the core elements.
     These findings could help the regulators or standard-setters get better understanding of the importance of accounting numbers in capital market and their mutual effects so as to make endeavors to foster the market mechanism by which high-quality accounting numbers are provided and demanded.
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