印度利用外国直接投资问题研究
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摘要
1991年以来,随着印度引资政策的调整和投资环境的改善,流入印度的外国直接投资(FDI)持续增长。目前,印度已经成为仅次于中国的最具吸引力的FDI东道国。在利用FDI问题上,印度存在许多独特之处,尤其体现在引资质量与吸收能力上。一方面,印度吸引的FDI技术含量较高;另一方面,印度国内高水平的技术人才提供了较强的吸收能力。两方面共同决定FDI在促进印度产业升级与技术提升方面发挥着更加积极的作用。与印度相比,虽然中国吸引了更多的FDI,但其对FDI的使用效率明显低于印度。因此,中国有必要借鉴印度的经验——通过政策引导、加强知识产权保护以及培养高素质人力资本来提高FDI的质量与吸收能力,争取在利用FDI过程中获取更多的收益。
With the adjustment on foreign investments policy and the improvement of investment environment in India, FDI flowing into India has increased continually since 1991. In recent years, India has become the most attractive FDI host country after China. It should be noted that India has much uniqueness on the utilization of FDI, especially on the environment and the policy of attracting foreign investments and the absorption capacity, etc. In-depth study on this issue not only helps to understand the advantages of attracting foreign investments in India, but also helps to recognize the certain deficiencies of utilizing FDI in China, so as to provide some references on the policy establishment and adjustment for China.
In this article, normal and empirical methods have been used to analysis the above issue from the following aspects: (1) Investment environment in India; (2) FDI policy and its evolution in India; (3) The determinative factors of utilizing FDI in India; (4) The impact of FDI on the growth of Indian economy; (5) The comparison on utilizing of FDI between India and China.
At present, the overall investment environment in India is not quite considerable. Such as the poor quality of infrastructures, too higher tariffs, complex tax structure, low work efficiency of the government and a high degree of corruption and bureaucracy, which all can prevent FDI to inflow deeply in India. But what I want to stress is that India is a country that has great potential for investment, for there are rich natural resources, the continuous expanding domestic market, skilled and well-educated workforce in India. Furthermore, financial system in India is perfect for investors to provide more facilities, and strong intellectual property protection is an important guarantee when attracting TNCs to invest in the field of science and technology and to carry out R & D activities in India. And the much more important thing is that the Indian Government has pursued a pragmatic economic reform on optimizing the investment environment.
The most unique on the utilization of FDI in India is its policy of attracting investment. Since independence, India's FDI policies have kept on basing on national conditions. Concretely, under the premise of adapting to the country's overall economic strategy, those policies have been adjusted in accordance with the national economy especially the different development stages of the industrialization. India's FDI policy attaches great importance to technology transfer and technical cooperation. On this basis, India laid emphasis on the digestion and absorption to adapt to their national conditions, so as to realize the goal of localization. India's FDI policy has obvious tendencies. For instance, India's key industries on attracting foreign investments include those that India is priority to develop, knowledge and technical trades, especially those that are prone to produce technology spillovers. Similarly, the backward areas are the focus where India government advocates that FDI should flow. The government of India provides special support on the FDI policy to those above industries and regions. In addition, India's FDI policy paid a great attention to Indian economic security. India government has either restricted or prohibited FDI to flow into the sectors which are related to the lifeline of the national economy, the people's livelihood or the national defense and security for a long time.
In recent years, with the adjustment of the policy of attracting foreign investments and the improvement of investment environment, the utilization of FDI in India has changed largely both number and structure. Judging from the quantity aspect, India's FDI inflows have increased gradually, which make FDI more important in the use of foreign capital and make India improve its position in the countries that FDI inflow into; judging from the structure, the developed countries in Europe and America become India's largest FDI sources and these FDI inflows into India's main capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. At the same time, the states which own the largest number of FDI approval have generally a higher degree of urban.
In order to investigate the determinative factors of FDI inflows and the impact of FDI on the Indian economy, multiple regression and co-integration test have been used to carry out the empirical study. Empirical studies showed that the stock of human capital, the real exchange rate fluctuations and the average tax rate in India are the decisive factors to attract FDI. Though the inflow of FDI is to promote the growth of India's GDP, FDI has not played an obvious role on improving India's exports.
Next, this article compared and analyzed the differences in the use of FDI between China and India on the volume and the structure of foreign investments. In volume terms, FDI that India attracts is equivalent to only one tenth that China attracts. Judging from the structure, FDI that China attracts is mainly from East Asian and flowing into China's major labor-intensive industries, then these industries will be taken as an export processing base to promote China's labor-intensive products exports. By contrast, the majority of FDI that India attracts is from developed countries and mainly flowing into capital and knowledge-intensive industries, which pay more attention to Indian domestic market. In fact, there are many reasons leading to the differences in the number and structure of using FDI, which include resource endowments, cultural background, development strategy and policy, etc. Different models to attract investment make China and India receive different economic performance from FDI inflows. What China benefits from the process of using FDI includes the increase in employment effect, the capital accumulation effect, trade and increasing efficiency effect , economic growth effect, while India get more obvious benefits from technology spillover effect and the industrial upgrading effect . Compared to China, India obtains less negative effects from FDI.
We can get some inspiration from the contrast of using FDI between India and China as followings: during the short term, various economic performances that a country can gain from the inflow of FDI are difficult to meet the maximum and sometimes even constrict with each other. Under such conditions, the goal of using FDI for a country should have its essential points. In the short term, since we can conclude from the Barrel Theory that the benefits that a policy brought us usually depend on the initial weaker restrictions which restrain the issues urgently needed to solute, FDI should mainly address the problems that must be faced immediately in term of national development. In the long term, the goal of using FDI is to increase national competitiveness, so as to make a country maintain economic growth in the long-term. Since China's current domestic and international environment is different from the early stage before reform, the author believes that the adjustment of the foreign investment policies in China is imperative. In details, China's domestic environment has undergone tremendous changes. After 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has achieved rapid economic growth and national income expansion significantly. The funding issue is no longer the most important constraint on economic growth and China has become the world's third largest trading nation. The trade surplus grows year after year and foreign exchange shortage problem has been resolved already. In addition, China has also eased the unemployment problem. However, when the above-mentioned pressures are reduced, some other issues are becoming prominent, such as the relatively small benefits from export processing trade, the inefficient use of capital; the immature labor skills; the weak industry competition, and so on. Obviously, the only way to solve above issues is to improve the technological level of China continuously. Moreover, considered from the international environment, the focus of international industrial has transferred from the manufacturing to the service industries. Nevertheless, Low-cost labor force, which is continually disappearing though has been taken as an advantage, attracts little high-quality FDI. On the whole, China's short-term goal of using FDI has been consistent with the long-term goal, which is to attract more high-technology FDI and actively improve national absorptive capacity in order to gain more technology overflow, and then enhance China's industries competitive power. Therefore, China must learn from India's experience of using FDI. Starting with the increase of the quality and absorptive capacity of using FDI, we should adjust policies of attracting investment, so as to make China obtain more benefits from the process of using FDI.
With the adjustment on foreign investments policy and the improvement of investment environment in India, FDI flowing into India has increased continually since 1991. In recent years, India has become the most attractive FDI host country after China. It should be noted that India has much uniqueness on the utilization of FDI, especially on the environment and the policy of attracting foreign investments and the absorption capacity, etc. In-depth study on this issue not only helps to understand the advantages of attracting foreign investments in India, but also helps to recognize the certain deficiencies of utilizing FDI in China, so as to provide some references on the policy establishment and adjustment for China.
In this article, normal and empirical methods have been used to analysis the above issue from the following aspects: (1) Investment environment in India; (2) FDI policy and its evolution in India; (3) The determinative factors of utilizing FDI in India; (4) The impact of FDI on the growth of Indian economy; (5) The comparison on utilizing of FDI between India and China.
At present, the overall investment environment in India is not quite considerable. Such as the poor quality of infrastructures, too higher tariffs, complex tax structure, low work efficiency of the government and a high degree of corruption and bureaucracy, which all can prevent FDI to inflow deeply in India. But what I want to stress is that India is a country that has great potential for investment, for there are rich natural resources, the continuous expanding domestic market, skilled and well-educated workforce in India. Furthermore, financial system in India is perfect for investors to provide more facilities, and strong intellectual property protection is an important guarantee when attracting TNCs to invest in the field of science and technology and to carry out R & D activities in India. And the much more important thing is that the Indian Government has pursued a pragmatic economic reform on optimizing the investment environment.
The most unique on the utilization of FDI in India is its policy of attracting investment. Since independence, India's FDI policies have kept on basing on national conditions. Concretely, under the premise of adapting to the country's overall economic strategy, those policies have been adjusted in accordance with the national economy especially the different development stages of the industrialization. India's FDI policy attaches great importance to technology transfer and technical cooperation. On this basis, India laid emphasis on the digestion and absorption to adapt to their national conditions, so as to realize the goal of localization. India's FDI policy has obvious tendencies. For instance, India's key industries on attracting foreign investments include those that India is priority to develop, knowledge and technical trades, especially those that are prone to produce technology spillovers. Similarly, the backward areas are the focus where India government advocates that FDI should flow. The government of India provides special support on the FDI policy to those above industries and regions. In addition, India's FDI policy paid a great attention to Indian economic security. India government has either restricted or prohibited FDI to flow into the sectors which are related to the lifeline of the national economy, the people's livelihood or the national defense and security for a long time.
In recent years, with the adjustment of the policy of attracting foreign investments and the improvement of investment environment, the utilization of FDI in India has changed largely both number and structure. Judging from the quantity aspect, India's FDI inflows have increased gradually, which make FDI more important in the use of foreign capital and make India improve its position in the countries that FDI inflow into; judging from the structure, the developed countries in Europe and America become India's largest FDI sources and these FDI inflows into India's main capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. At the same time, the states which own the largest number of FDI approval have generally a higher degree of urban.
In order to investigate the determinative factors of FDI inflows and the impact of FDI on the Indian economy, multiple regression and co-integration test have been used to carry out the empirical study. Empirical studies showed that the stock of human capital, the real exchange rate fluctuations and the average tax rate in India are the decisive factors to attract FDI. Though the inflow of FDI is to promote the growth of India's GDP, FDI has not played an obvious role on improving India's exports.
Next, this article compared and analyzed the differences in the use of FDI between China and India on the volume and the structure of foreign investments. In volume terms, FDI that India attracts is equivalent to only one tenth that China attracts. Judging from the structure, FDI that China attracts is mainly from East Asian and flowing into China's major labor-intensive industries, then these industries will be taken as an export processing base to promote China's labor-intensive products exports. By contrast, the majority of FDI that India attracts is from developed countries and mainly flowing into capital and knowledge-intensive industries, which pay more attention to Indian domestic market. In fact, there are many reasons leading to the differences in the number and structure of using FDI, which include resource endowments, cultural background, development strategy and policy, etc. Different models to attract investment make China and India receive different economic performance from FDI inflows. What China benefits from the process of using FDI includes the increase in employment effect, the capital accumulation effect, trade and increasing efficiency effect , economic growth effect, while India get more obvious benefits from technology spillover effect and the industrial upgrading effect . Compared to China, India obtains less negative effects from FDI.
We can get some inspiration from the contrast of using FDI between India and China as followings: during the short term, various economic performances that a country can gain from the inflow of FDI are difficult to meet the maximum and sometimes even constrict with each other. Under such conditions, the goal of using FDI for a country should have its essential points. In the short term, since we can conclude from the Barrel Theory that the benefits that a policy brought us usually depend on the initial weaker restrictions which restrain the issues urgently needed to solute, FDI should mainly address the problems that must be faced immediately in term of national development. In the long term, the goal of using FDI is to increase national competitiveness, so as to make a country maintain economic growth in the long-term. Since China's current domestic and international environment is different from the early stage before reform, the author believes that the adjustment of the foreign investment policies in China is imperative. In details, China's domestic environment has undergone tremendous changes. After 30 years of reform and opening-up, China has achieved rapid economic growth and national income expansion significantly. The funding issue is no longer the most important constraint on economic growth and China has become the world's third largest trading nation. The trade surplus grows year after year and foreign exchange shortage problem has been resolved already. In addition, China has also eased the unemployment problem. However, when the above-mentioned pressures are reduced, some other issues are becoming prominent, such as the relatively small benefits from export processing trade, the inefficient use of capital; the immature labor skills; the weak industry competition, and so on. Obviously, the only way to solve above issues is to improve the technological level of China continuously. Moreover, considered from the international environment, the focus of international industrial has transferred from the manufacturing to the service industries. Nevertheless, Low-cost labor force, which is continually disappearing though has been taken as an advantage, attracts little high-quality FDI. On the whole, China's short-term goal of using FDI has been consistent with the long-term goal, which is to attract more high-technology FDI and actively improve national absorptive capacity in order to gain more technology overflow, and then enhance China's industries competitive power. Therefore, China must learn from India's experience of using FDI. Starting with the increase of the quality and absorptive capacity of using FDI, we should adjust policies of attracting investment, so as to make China obtain more benefits from the process of using FDI.
引文
① 根据世界银行分类,发展中国家和地区的外资政策,在 1999 年的 140 项 FDI 政策变化中,有131 项是放松对外国投资者的限制,为 FDI 创造更有利的环境。在 1991—1999 年期间的 1035项政策变化中,有 94%是有利于投资者的。
② Sj?holm(1999)提出:技术差距与溢出之间可能存在非线性关系。显然,溢出的发生要求有某种技术差距。在初级阶段,溢出水平的确随着技术差距的增加而增加。然而,当差距增大到某一水平以至于当地厂商无法在现有的经验、教育水平及技术知识基础上对国外先进技术加以吸收时,溢出将与技术差距的变化背道而驰。Borenztein 等人(1998)和 Bl?mstrom 等人(1994)称这一转折点称为发展门槛(development threshhold),认为东道国应具备一定的劳动技术水平和基础设施水平才能跨过这一门槛,享受 FDI 带来的人力资本扩张的益处。
① 根据印度的官方统计资料,毛里求斯是印度最大的 FDI 来源地,但由于毛里求斯是一个自由港,一些外国投资者通过在该国注册再向印度投资,可以享受印度与毛里求斯之间避免双重税的优惠,投资来源复杂,因而毛里求斯并不是一个 FDI 的真正来源国,印度的官方文件也一直将美国视为印度 FDI 最大来源国(Dijik,2003)。
② 中国吸引的 FDI 主要多来自海外华人。而海外华人所传授的技能多为营销型而非生产型技能 (Buckley et al,2002;Buckley and Chen 2005)。
③ 吸收能力的研究涉及很多内容。本文采取周剑(2006)的定义——东道国对外商 FDI 的现有技术进行模仿、学习并加以商业化运用的能力。而这种能力一般通过东道国人力资本的数量进行衡量。
① 黄亚生(2003)指出,在中国赋予外国公司的产权已经在 1982 年实施,而中国企业家却在 1999年获得这种权利。
② 20 世纪 50 年代以前,中印两国曾同为农业世界的核心国家;在近代,两国又经历了经济从衰落到复兴的过程,在饱经经济低效增长的困扰后,两国又均在 20 世纪末进行了市场经济改革,并实现了经济的高速增长。
① 埃绍克·古哈和艾米特·S·雷(2002)指出,印度自由化改革后的 FDI 流入数量与中国改革开放初期的 FDI 流入数量极其相似。但是,两国在 FDI 流入的主导产业与 FDI 经济绩效方面存在着显著不同。在中国,FDI 主要流入制造业,并促进了出口导向行业的发展。在印度,FDI 主要流向服务业,它并没有将印度构建成一个出口加工基地。此外,根据一些学者的测算,FDI 对印度技术进步的推动作用明显超过中国。
① 参见:Nayak(2006)。
① 参见:唐以今(2005)、李大伟等人(2006)、葛秋颖和李卫(2006)、李纲领(2006)、冯媛媛(2007)、李凡和王巾英(2006)、任强(2006)、张四平和李文贵(2006)。
② 他认为,中国吸引的 FDI 实际仅有 200 亿美元,为其官方统计量的 1/2。印度利用的 FDI 实际数值为 80 亿美元,远高于其官方统计数据(20-30 亿美元)。
① 利用最小二乘回归方法无法解释 FDI 与 GDP 间的因果关系。考察二者间的关系,应使用格兰杰因果检验等方法。
② 一些学者并未对相关数据进行处理,尤其是分析中未排除汇率、通胀的影响。此种情况下,很多不必要的因素将影响实证结果,甚至误导分析结论。
① Phillips(2006)认为,治理包含腐败,透明的司法制度,有利于竞争的政策等特性;基础设施包含硬基础设施(灌溉系统,港口,道路,桥梁,机场等)和软基础设施(电话,其他技术等)两部分。
① IFC(2004)认为,好的投资环境表现在合理的法律制度,高度的宏观稳定性,不过多并且都集中在公共物品上的政府支出,对外贸易的开放以及投资的比较恰当的一揽子政策上,并能够保障私人合法权益。
② 在寻求经济增长和减少贫困过程中,企业是关键。而投资环境是决定企业贡献的主导因素。
① 印度政府称其领土为 328.78 万平方公里。
② 亚洲开发银行,时间截止为 2006 年 7 月 1 日。
③ 世界银行(2005)。世界银行计算印度的基尼系数使用的是人均消费支出指标。一些学者测算,如果用人均收入指标计算基尼系数,印度收入差距的基尼系数有可能是 0.6~0.7。
① 事实上,老德里和新德里现在已完全联在一起,印度老百姓说起首都时也通常是称“德里”,而非“新德里”。所以,称印度首都为“德里”似乎更符合现实。
① 参见:第三章《印度的 FDI 政策及其演变》。
② 不属于自动审批的项目,需要由外商投资促进局(FIPB)或外商投资委员会审批。
① 李了文等人(1982),第 174 页。
① 鲁达尔.达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 272 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 17 页。
② 高鲲、张敏秋(1996),第 197 页。
③ 陈峰君(2000),第 346 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 55 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 57 页。
② 鲁达尔.达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 315 页。
① 李晓(2007)将印度民主政治的特殊性解释为政治体制的宗教化和政治体制的种姓化。
② 在“示范压力”作用下,公众提出的政治参与要求超过了政治制度能够满足的程度,于是导致政治不稳定。挑战稳定的力量主要是大城市的知识分子,特别是大学生、政府中的改革派以及军队。
③ 普沃斯基用一个二维矩阵证明,政府和民间的强硬派与温和派的组合格局决定了政治变迁的模式。
④ 哈贝马斯揭示了在现代资本主义发展过程中“公共领域”的作用及其演变。团结工会、天主教会等非政府组织在东欧剧变中发挥的作用,促成了“市民社会兴起理论”。
⑤ 社会运动理论强调政治机会、动员和组织资源的方式、群体意识、对社会问题的感知、对通过集体行动解决共同面对的问题的信心、有效的意识形态的重要性。
⑥ 参见:康晓光(2002)。
① BBC(2004)进行了一项调查,在被访者中,有 55%的人认为种姓制度是社会和谐的一种障碍。
② 在议会选举中,政党和选举联盟争夺的是人民院的议席。因为,只有获得人民院多数席位(即272 席)的政党才有权组阁,成为执政党,其领袖出任政府总理。如果在选举中出现没有一个政党超过半数席位的情况,结果只有两种情况:要么获得议席较多的政党联合其他党派和独立人士,使议席超过半数,从而建立政府;要么某一政党在其他党派的支持下组阁,但提供支持的党派不参加政府。
① http://cqtnzx.bokee.com/2784236.html。
① www.singtaonet.com。
① “透明国际”(Transparency International)是一个国际反腐败的非政府组织,它发布的腐败印象指数(CPI)也被称作“清廉指数”,是测量腐败程度的一个重要指标。
② 在印度的一些外商企业代表认为,印度腐败的关键包括:治理缺乏透明度,极为繁琐的官方手续,以及在政府的政客和官僚手中掌握着过度和无管制的自由裁量权。
① Arjunan(2005)的观点认为,印度成为世贸组织的成员后,被迫向世贸组织的条件低头。印度是世界知识产权组织和联合国教科文组织的成员之一。知识产权组织的协议要求印度制定新的法例,并对现行商标,专利和著作权的法规作出重大调整。印度政府随后颁布了广泛的保护知识产权法律和法规,与世界贸易组织规定的标准相一致。
② 过去,在印度审批一项专利需要 5 到 7 年时间,现在则不到 3 年。
③ 在知识产权法律的保护和激励下,印度信息技术产业实现了迅速增长。1999 年至 2002 年,印度软件出口年均增长率达到 48%,而之前 5 年的年均增长率只有 35%。此外,在过去 15 年里,印度的专利申请增加了 400%。2004 年有将近 800 家印度公司向世界知识产权组织提交了国际专 利 申 请 , 比 2000 年 印 度 的 国 际 专 利 申 请 数 量 翻 了 一 番 。 转 引 自 : 新 华 网(http://www.chinaeclaw.com/readArticle.asp?id=6804,2006-8-1)。
① 参见:Lockett 等人(2007)。
① http://biz.163.com/41215/9/17KPGTQQ00020QF2.html 2004-12-15。
② 参见:戴维·史密斯(2007)。
③ http://gb.cri.cn/2201/2004/12/13/ 1062@390141_1.htm。
④ http://finance.sina.com.cn。
① http://www.caijing.com.cn/home/todayspec/2006- 10-20/12498.shtml。
② http://www.ccer.edu.cn/cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=5766。
① http://www.ccer.edu.cn/cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=5766。
① 参见 Arjunan(2005)。
② 鲁达尔·达特、K·P·M·桑达拉姆(1994.),第 572 页。
③ 在独立前,在印度国内的外国公司占用了大量的经济资源,并将巨额利润和利息汇出印度,根据米切尔基德隆教授的估计,1948-1961 年间,外国投资者汇出的现金为他们 FDI 的 3 倍。同时,多数外国公司歧视印度人,让其从事卑微的、收入低的工作,并且很难得到外国公司的专门培训。
① 独立后,印度政府接收了英国人留在印度储备银行的硬币和英镑结余以及归还印度的战争债务约合 345 亿卢比,加上印度在两次世界大战中积存于英国国家银行的约合 154 亿卢比的存款,共计 499 亿卢比。
② 印度计划委员会:《第一个五年计划》,德里,1952 年,第 92 页。转引自:杨洪斌(2003)。
③ 李了文等人(1982),第 201 页。
① 根据米切尔·基德隆教授的估计,转引自鲁达尔·达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 585 页。
① 参见:Nayak(2006)。
① 近 1 亿美元的 NRI 外逃。
① 赵鸣岐(2005),第 190 页。
② 鲁达尔·达特、K·P·M·桑达拉姆(1994.),第 588 页。
① 参见:第四章《印度利用 FDI 的新趋势》。
① 参见:中国驻印度大使馆(2003)。
① 实际上,这一变化从 2004 年就已经出现(参见表 1)。
① 参见:Bhah(2006)。
① 参见:中国驻印度大使馆(2003)。
① Bhagwati(1975)认为举借外债对印度经济的影响微乎其微。
① http://www.chinanews.com.cn/news/2005/2005-10-27/8/643670.shtml。
① Mandi Dabwali ,Distt Sirsa, Haryana(2006) Foreign Direct Investment Contemporary Issues. New delhi: Deep&Deep Publications PVT.LTD, pp.100.
① http://market.c114.net/220/a155249.html。
① Bhah(2006),第 84-85 页。
①Bhah(2006),第 85 页。
① 这一指标是衡量电、煤、钢铁、水泥、天然气、石油生产能力的综合指标。
① 这一计算方法主要借鉴多数学者对平均关税率的计算方法。多数学者在衡量东道国平均关税率时,一般以东道国关税总额除以 GDP。
① 由于印度官方机构并没有给出 M2 的具体数值,因此本文用 M3 代替了 M2。
① 参见:蒋鲁鸣(2006):《中国国防经济学:2005》,北京:中国财政经济出版社。
① 前向和后向联系效应是指,当通讯和运输费用很高时,外企通常从当地生产商购买中间产品,通常他们会对内地企业进行技术帮助或培训以保证中间产品的质量,即使外企不直接参与,内企也被迫提高质量、及时送货或进行更多的革新,这是后向联系效应;当后向联系效应发生使技术难度提高后,内地供应商会转向外国供应商购买中间产品,这是前向联系。
② 培训效应是指,外国企业对当地工人进行相应的培训,从而提高了当地的技术水平。
① http://www.stnn.cc/feitures/reform/reform2/t20070109_440227.html。
① http://www.stnn.cc/feitures/reform/reform2/t20070109_440227.html。
② Panagariya(2004)认为:除港台资金以外,中印不同的经济结构是导致中印 FDI 差距的另一原因。 中国经济以工业为主而印度经济以服务业为主。印度的信息工业远超中国, 但传统工业落后于中国。印度未来扩展 FDI 的根本之道在于刺激传统工业的增长。转引自:李大伟等人(2006)。
① 虽然有学者认为,印度对 FDI 开放时间更早,但是直至 1991 年之前,印度并没有针对改革提出广泛的具体的措施(Nagaraj,2003)。
① 从 2008 年 1 月 1 日起,中国开始实行“两税”并轨的的税收制度。
② 对外资的税收政策优惠不仅表现在法定的税率上,表现在外资企业一直享有低于中国企业的所得税税率、一定年限的所得税税收减免上,而且表现在操作层次上的税收征收方式上。对中国企业,超过一定数额的员工工资不能计入成本,而应当视为利润的一部分,从而不仅员工应当缴纳相应的个人所得税,企业还要为此缴纳相应的企业所得税。但是这种做法却没有适用于外资企业给其员工的工资,外资企业的员工工资就都可以不视为企业利润,从而不必缴纳相应的企业所得税。《中国吸引外商 FDI 对内资的需求效应》。转引自:http://oa.jlchina.cn/Article/ china/766_2.htm。
③ 毛里求斯是有名的低税地,对资本利得基本不征税。转移自: http://www.wztax.gov.cn/ Html/gjss/2006-08/1/0134308851708164063016013408.html
④ 这一结果是世界银行以中国的资本外逃数额为基础计算得出的,因此 Wei(2004)怀疑其精确性。
① 哈佛亚洲商业会议, 2001 年 2 月, www.fas.harvard.edu。
② 相关问题已经在第四章印度投资环境中有所表述,因此,在这里,笔者未进行具体比较。
① http://oa.jlchina.cn/Article/china/766_2.htm
① 不过, 并购投资往往伴随着对技术和人力资本的投资,而且只要项目运转顺利,可能会产生较大数额的后续投资。转引自:“促进跨国公司对华投资政策”课题组:跨国公司在华并购投资:意义、趋势及应对战略,管理世界,2001(3)。
① 参见:谢雯、陈曦、徐山鹰、汪寿阳:2006-2007 年中国部分主要商品进出口预测与分析,http://www.allol.net/com/cuiaimingg/ns_detail.php?id=13468&nowmenuid= 23846&cpath=
① 报告称,从中国改革开放初期到 2004 年 9 月止,中国共吸收外商 FDI5500 亿美元,外商 FDI 为GDP 的贡献超过 40%,但是 FDI 的主要载体跨国公司地位显露垄断苗头,大量 FDI 的引进造成的负面影响扩大,其中最主要的是“让出了市场却没有获得相应的技术提升,这同我们‘市场换技术’的初衷还有相当大的差距。” 转引自:经济学家网站,网址:www.jjxj.com.cn。
① 2008 年 1 月 1 日起中国实行的两税合一的税制改革既是这一政策的体现。
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② Sj?holm(1999)提出:技术差距与溢出之间可能存在非线性关系。显然,溢出的发生要求有某种技术差距。在初级阶段,溢出水平的确随着技术差距的增加而增加。然而,当差距增大到某一水平以至于当地厂商无法在现有的经验、教育水平及技术知识基础上对国外先进技术加以吸收时,溢出将与技术差距的变化背道而驰。Borenztein 等人(1998)和 Bl?mstrom 等人(1994)称这一转折点称为发展门槛(development threshhold),认为东道国应具备一定的劳动技术水平和基础设施水平才能跨过这一门槛,享受 FDI 带来的人力资本扩张的益处。
① 根据印度的官方统计资料,毛里求斯是印度最大的 FDI 来源地,但由于毛里求斯是一个自由港,一些外国投资者通过在该国注册再向印度投资,可以享受印度与毛里求斯之间避免双重税的优惠,投资来源复杂,因而毛里求斯并不是一个 FDI 的真正来源国,印度的官方文件也一直将美国视为印度 FDI 最大来源国(Dijik,2003)。
② 中国吸引的 FDI 主要多来自海外华人。而海外华人所传授的技能多为营销型而非生产型技能 (Buckley et al,2002;Buckley and Chen 2005)。
③ 吸收能力的研究涉及很多内容。本文采取周剑(2006)的定义——东道国对外商 FDI 的现有技术进行模仿、学习并加以商业化运用的能力。而这种能力一般通过东道国人力资本的数量进行衡量。
① 黄亚生(2003)指出,在中国赋予外国公司的产权已经在 1982 年实施,而中国企业家却在 1999年获得这种权利。
② 20 世纪 50 年代以前,中印两国曾同为农业世界的核心国家;在近代,两国又经历了经济从衰落到复兴的过程,在饱经经济低效增长的困扰后,两国又均在 20 世纪末进行了市场经济改革,并实现了经济的高速增长。
① 埃绍克·古哈和艾米特·S·雷(2002)指出,印度自由化改革后的 FDI 流入数量与中国改革开放初期的 FDI 流入数量极其相似。但是,两国在 FDI 流入的主导产业与 FDI 经济绩效方面存在着显著不同。在中国,FDI 主要流入制造业,并促进了出口导向行业的发展。在印度,FDI 主要流向服务业,它并没有将印度构建成一个出口加工基地。此外,根据一些学者的测算,FDI 对印度技术进步的推动作用明显超过中国。
① 参见:Nayak(2006)。
① 参见:唐以今(2005)、李大伟等人(2006)、葛秋颖和李卫(2006)、李纲领(2006)、冯媛媛(2007)、李凡和王巾英(2006)、任强(2006)、张四平和李文贵(2006)。
② 他认为,中国吸引的 FDI 实际仅有 200 亿美元,为其官方统计量的 1/2。印度利用的 FDI 实际数值为 80 亿美元,远高于其官方统计数据(20-30 亿美元)。
① 利用最小二乘回归方法无法解释 FDI 与 GDP 间的因果关系。考察二者间的关系,应使用格兰杰因果检验等方法。
② 一些学者并未对相关数据进行处理,尤其是分析中未排除汇率、通胀的影响。此种情况下,很多不必要的因素将影响实证结果,甚至误导分析结论。
① Phillips(2006)认为,治理包含腐败,透明的司法制度,有利于竞争的政策等特性;基础设施包含硬基础设施(灌溉系统,港口,道路,桥梁,机场等)和软基础设施(电话,其他技术等)两部分。
① IFC(2004)认为,好的投资环境表现在合理的法律制度,高度的宏观稳定性,不过多并且都集中在公共物品上的政府支出,对外贸易的开放以及投资的比较恰当的一揽子政策上,并能够保障私人合法权益。
② 在寻求经济增长和减少贫困过程中,企业是关键。而投资环境是决定企业贡献的主导因素。
① 印度政府称其领土为 328.78 万平方公里。
② 亚洲开发银行,时间截止为 2006 年 7 月 1 日。
③ 世界银行(2005)。世界银行计算印度的基尼系数使用的是人均消费支出指标。一些学者测算,如果用人均收入指标计算基尼系数,印度收入差距的基尼系数有可能是 0.6~0.7。
① 事实上,老德里和新德里现在已完全联在一起,印度老百姓说起首都时也通常是称“德里”,而非“新德里”。所以,称印度首都为“德里”似乎更符合现实。
① 参见:第三章《印度的 FDI 政策及其演变》。
② 不属于自动审批的项目,需要由外商投资促进局(FIPB)或外商投资委员会审批。
① 李了文等人(1982),第 174 页。
① 鲁达尔.达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 272 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 17 页。
② 高鲲、张敏秋(1996),第 197 页。
③ 陈峰君(2000),第 346 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 55 页。
① 杨冬云(2005),第 57 页。
② 鲁达尔.达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 315 页。
① 李晓(2007)将印度民主政治的特殊性解释为政治体制的宗教化和政治体制的种姓化。
② 在“示范压力”作用下,公众提出的政治参与要求超过了政治制度能够满足的程度,于是导致政治不稳定。挑战稳定的力量主要是大城市的知识分子,特别是大学生、政府中的改革派以及军队。
③ 普沃斯基用一个二维矩阵证明,政府和民间的强硬派与温和派的组合格局决定了政治变迁的模式。
④ 哈贝马斯揭示了在现代资本主义发展过程中“公共领域”的作用及其演变。团结工会、天主教会等非政府组织在东欧剧变中发挥的作用,促成了“市民社会兴起理论”。
⑤ 社会运动理论强调政治机会、动员和组织资源的方式、群体意识、对社会问题的感知、对通过集体行动解决共同面对的问题的信心、有效的意识形态的重要性。
⑥ 参见:康晓光(2002)。
① BBC(2004)进行了一项调查,在被访者中,有 55%的人认为种姓制度是社会和谐的一种障碍。
② 在议会选举中,政党和选举联盟争夺的是人民院的议席。因为,只有获得人民院多数席位(即272 席)的政党才有权组阁,成为执政党,其领袖出任政府总理。如果在选举中出现没有一个政党超过半数席位的情况,结果只有两种情况:要么获得议席较多的政党联合其他党派和独立人士,使议席超过半数,从而建立政府;要么某一政党在其他党派的支持下组阁,但提供支持的党派不参加政府。
① http://cqtnzx.bokee.com/2784236.html。
① www.singtaonet.com。
① “透明国际”(Transparency International)是一个国际反腐败的非政府组织,它发布的腐败印象指数(CPI)也被称作“清廉指数”,是测量腐败程度的一个重要指标。
② 在印度的一些外商企业代表认为,印度腐败的关键包括:治理缺乏透明度,极为繁琐的官方手续,以及在政府的政客和官僚手中掌握着过度和无管制的自由裁量权。
① Arjunan(2005)的观点认为,印度成为世贸组织的成员后,被迫向世贸组织的条件低头。印度是世界知识产权组织和联合国教科文组织的成员之一。知识产权组织的协议要求印度制定新的法例,并对现行商标,专利和著作权的法规作出重大调整。印度政府随后颁布了广泛的保护知识产权法律和法规,与世界贸易组织规定的标准相一致。
② 过去,在印度审批一项专利需要 5 到 7 年时间,现在则不到 3 年。
③ 在知识产权法律的保护和激励下,印度信息技术产业实现了迅速增长。1999 年至 2002 年,印度软件出口年均增长率达到 48%,而之前 5 年的年均增长率只有 35%。此外,在过去 15 年里,印度的专利申请增加了 400%。2004 年有将近 800 家印度公司向世界知识产权组织提交了国际专 利 申 请 , 比 2000 年 印 度 的 国 际 专 利 申 请 数 量 翻 了 一 番 。 转 引 自 : 新 华 网(http://www.chinaeclaw.com/readArticle.asp?id=6804,2006-8-1)。
① 参见:Lockett 等人(2007)。
① http://biz.163.com/41215/9/17KPGTQQ00020QF2.html 2004-12-15。
② 参见:戴维·史密斯(2007)。
③ http://gb.cri.cn/2201/2004/12/13/ 1062@390141_1.htm。
④ http://finance.sina.com.cn。
① http://www.caijing.com.cn/home/todayspec/2006- 10-20/12498.shtml。
② http://www.ccer.edu.cn/cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=5766。
① http://www.ccer.edu.cn/cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=5766。
① 参见 Arjunan(2005)。
② 鲁达尔·达特、K·P·M·桑达拉姆(1994.),第 572 页。
③ 在独立前,在印度国内的外国公司占用了大量的经济资源,并将巨额利润和利息汇出印度,根据米切尔基德隆教授的估计,1948-1961 年间,外国投资者汇出的现金为他们 FDI 的 3 倍。同时,多数外国公司歧视印度人,让其从事卑微的、收入低的工作,并且很难得到外国公司的专门培训。
① 独立后,印度政府接收了英国人留在印度储备银行的硬币和英镑结余以及归还印度的战争债务约合 345 亿卢比,加上印度在两次世界大战中积存于英国国家银行的约合 154 亿卢比的存款,共计 499 亿卢比。
② 印度计划委员会:《第一个五年计划》,德里,1952 年,第 92 页。转引自:杨洪斌(2003)。
③ 李了文等人(1982),第 201 页。
① 根据米切尔·基德隆教授的估计,转引自鲁达尔·达特和桑达拉姆(1994),第 585 页。
① 参见:Nayak(2006)。
① 近 1 亿美元的 NRI 外逃。
① 赵鸣岐(2005),第 190 页。
② 鲁达尔·达特、K·P·M·桑达拉姆(1994.),第 588 页。
① 参见:第四章《印度利用 FDI 的新趋势》。
① 参见:中国驻印度大使馆(2003)。
① 实际上,这一变化从 2004 年就已经出现(参见表 1)。
① 参见:Bhah(2006)。
① 参见:中国驻印度大使馆(2003)。
① Bhagwati(1975)认为举借外债对印度经济的影响微乎其微。
① http://www.chinanews.com.cn/news/2005/2005-10-27/8/643670.shtml。
① Mandi Dabwali ,Distt Sirsa, Haryana(2006) Foreign Direct Investment Contemporary Issues. New delhi: Deep&Deep Publications PVT.LTD, pp.100.
① http://market.c114.net/220/a155249.html。
① Bhah(2006),第 84-85 页。
①Bhah(2006),第 85 页。
① 这一指标是衡量电、煤、钢铁、水泥、天然气、石油生产能力的综合指标。
① 这一计算方法主要借鉴多数学者对平均关税率的计算方法。多数学者在衡量东道国平均关税率时,一般以东道国关税总额除以 GDP。
① 由于印度官方机构并没有给出 M2 的具体数值,因此本文用 M3 代替了 M2。
① 参见:蒋鲁鸣(2006):《中国国防经济学:2005》,北京:中国财政经济出版社。
① 前向和后向联系效应是指,当通讯和运输费用很高时,外企通常从当地生产商购买中间产品,通常他们会对内地企业进行技术帮助或培训以保证中间产品的质量,即使外企不直接参与,内企也被迫提高质量、及时送货或进行更多的革新,这是后向联系效应;当后向联系效应发生使技术难度提高后,内地供应商会转向外国供应商购买中间产品,这是前向联系。
② 培训效应是指,外国企业对当地工人进行相应的培训,从而提高了当地的技术水平。
① http://www.stnn.cc/feitures/reform/reform2/t20070109_440227.html。
① http://www.stnn.cc/feitures/reform/reform2/t20070109_440227.html。
② Panagariya(2004)认为:除港台资金以外,中印不同的经济结构是导致中印 FDI 差距的另一原因。 中国经济以工业为主而印度经济以服务业为主。印度的信息工业远超中国, 但传统工业落后于中国。印度未来扩展 FDI 的根本之道在于刺激传统工业的增长。转引自:李大伟等人(2006)。
① 虽然有学者认为,印度对 FDI 开放时间更早,但是直至 1991 年之前,印度并没有针对改革提出广泛的具体的措施(Nagaraj,2003)。
① 从 2008 年 1 月 1 日起,中国开始实行“两税”并轨的的税收制度。
② 对外资的税收政策优惠不仅表现在法定的税率上,表现在外资企业一直享有低于中国企业的所得税税率、一定年限的所得税税收减免上,而且表现在操作层次上的税收征收方式上。对中国企业,超过一定数额的员工工资不能计入成本,而应当视为利润的一部分,从而不仅员工应当缴纳相应的个人所得税,企业还要为此缴纳相应的企业所得税。但是这种做法却没有适用于外资企业给其员工的工资,外资企业的员工工资就都可以不视为企业利润,从而不必缴纳相应的企业所得税。《中国吸引外商 FDI 对内资的需求效应》。转引自:http://oa.jlchina.cn/Article/ china/766_2.htm。
③ 毛里求斯是有名的低税地,对资本利得基本不征税。转移自: http://www.wztax.gov.cn/ Html/gjss/2006-08/1/0134308851708164063016013408.html
④ 这一结果是世界银行以中国的资本外逃数额为基础计算得出的,因此 Wei(2004)怀疑其精确性。
① 哈佛亚洲商业会议, 2001 年 2 月, www.fas.harvard.edu。
② 相关问题已经在第四章印度投资环境中有所表述,因此,在这里,笔者未进行具体比较。
① http://oa.jlchina.cn/Article/china/766_2.htm
① 不过, 并购投资往往伴随着对技术和人力资本的投资,而且只要项目运转顺利,可能会产生较大数额的后续投资。转引自:“促进跨国公司对华投资政策”课题组:跨国公司在华并购投资:意义、趋势及应对战略,管理世界,2001(3)。
① 参见:谢雯、陈曦、徐山鹰、汪寿阳:2006-2007 年中国部分主要商品进出口预测与分析,http://www.allol.net/com/cuiaimingg/ns_detail.php?id=13468&nowmenuid= 23846&cpath=
① 报告称,从中国改革开放初期到 2004 年 9 月止,中国共吸收外商 FDI5500 亿美元,外商 FDI 为GDP 的贡献超过 40%,但是 FDI 的主要载体跨国公司地位显露垄断苗头,大量 FDI 的引进造成的负面影响扩大,其中最主要的是“让出了市场却没有获得相应的技术提升,这同我们‘市场换技术’的初衷还有相当大的差距。” 转引自:经济学家网站,网址:www.jjxj.com.cn。
① 2008 年 1 月 1 日起中国实行的两税合一的税制改革既是这一政策的体现。
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