区域经济非线性投入产出模型及其应用研究
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摘要
由于在过去几十年的发展期间过分强调经济效益,我国出现了许多区域发展问题,地区内经济中部门价格的合理性也是其中的一个问题,某些部门的价格与本地区经济的发展不协调,呈现不合理性,因此对区域经济中的价格的合理性进行分析是非常有必要的。投入产出技术作为一种经济数量分析方法,自产生以来已在经济领域的各个方面取得了广泛的应用,本文使用投入产出方法对价格合理性问题进行了研究。
本文首先对投入产出分析相关理论进行了介绍,包括投入产出表的介绍,投入产出行模型、投入产出列模型、投入产出行模型与列模型的关系介绍,对非线性投入产出模型、价格理论、区域经济模型的理论发展进行了综述,为后文研究工作的开展做了准备。
其次,我们讨论了直接消耗系数的主要修订方法,包括专家调查法、RAS法、各种主要元素修订法、马尔科夫链法等,并在传统RAS法的基础上首次提出了两阶段RAS法。
然后,我们建立了一类非线性投入产出模型,重点考虑了部门产品合理价格问题。根据河北省2005年投入产出延长表和《河北经济统计年鉴》(2001-2005)相关数据,利用模型计算出河北省国民经济十部门产品的合理价格水平。通过对房地产业进行了分析,得出河北省房地产业2005年并不存在泡沫现象,房地产实际总体价格略微偏低,应该上调13%左右的结论。
文章最后利用计算结果对十部门中的房地产业进行了分析研究,指出了河北省房地产业总体不存在泡沫现象。
It experienced a number of regional development issues in our country because in the past several decades we emphasis on economic benefits, the reasonableness of the price in the economic sector of region is one of the issues. The price of certain sectors in the region is not accord with the economic development, so the analysis of the reasonableness of the price in the regional economy is very necessary. Using mathematic model to do research on economic problems both on theory and reality becomes the key indicator of economic developing to modern science. Wide application of input-output technology in economic field since it has been generated as it is a kind of number economic analysis method. In this paper, reasonable price issues have been studied by the input and output method.
We introduce Input-output analysis related theories firstly in this paper, and describe the theory of the Non-linear input-output model, the price theory and the theory of regional economic model in summary.
Secondly, we discuss the major revision method of direct consumption coefficient, including expert survey, RAS method, major elements reversion method, Markov method, ect. And developed the two steps RAS method based on the traditional RAS method.
Then, we pay more attention on doing research on reasonable price using Non-linear input-output model. We calculated the reasonable prices of the ten sectors products according the data from Input-output extension table of Hebei province in 2005 and Hebei Economic Statistics Yearbook (2001-2005) by the model. There was no real estate bubble in Hebei Province in 2005 according to the analysis of the real estate industry. The real estate prices is actually slightly lower, should rise about 13% .
We use the calculated results to do the analysis on real estate industry of the ten departments products in the last of the paper, and indicate that there is no bubble phenomenon in real estate industry of Hebei province.
本文首先对投入产出分析相关理论进行了介绍,包括投入产出表的介绍,投入产出行模型、投入产出列模型、投入产出行模型与列模型的关系介绍,对非线性投入产出模型、价格理论、区域经济模型的理论发展进行了综述,为后文研究工作的开展做了准备。
其次,我们讨论了直接消耗系数的主要修订方法,包括专家调查法、RAS法、各种主要元素修订法、马尔科夫链法等,并在传统RAS法的基础上首次提出了两阶段RAS法。
然后,我们建立了一类非线性投入产出模型,重点考虑了部门产品合理价格问题。根据河北省2005年投入产出延长表和《河北经济统计年鉴》(2001-2005)相关数据,利用模型计算出河北省国民经济十部门产品的合理价格水平。通过对房地产业进行了分析,得出河北省房地产业2005年并不存在泡沫现象,房地产实际总体价格略微偏低,应该上调13%左右的结论。
文章最后利用计算结果对十部门中的房地产业进行了分析研究,指出了河北省房地产业总体不存在泡沫现象。
It experienced a number of regional development issues in our country because in the past several decades we emphasis on economic benefits, the reasonableness of the price in the economic sector of region is one of the issues. The price of certain sectors in the region is not accord with the economic development, so the analysis of the reasonableness of the price in the regional economy is very necessary. Using mathematic model to do research on economic problems both on theory and reality becomes the key indicator of economic developing to modern science. Wide application of input-output technology in economic field since it has been generated as it is a kind of number economic analysis method. In this paper, reasonable price issues have been studied by the input and output method.
We introduce Input-output analysis related theories firstly in this paper, and describe the theory of the Non-linear input-output model, the price theory and the theory of regional economic model in summary.
Secondly, we discuss the major revision method of direct consumption coefficient, including expert survey, RAS method, major elements reversion method, Markov method, ect. And developed the two steps RAS method based on the traditional RAS method.
Then, we pay more attention on doing research on reasonable price using Non-linear input-output model. We calculated the reasonable prices of the ten sectors products according the data from Input-output extension table of Hebei province in 2005 and Hebei Economic Statistics Yearbook (2001-2005) by the model. There was no real estate bubble in Hebei Province in 2005 according to the analysis of the real estate industry. The real estate prices is actually slightly lower, should rise about 13% .
We use the calculated results to do the analysis on real estate industry of the ten departments products in the last of the paper, and indicate that there is no bubble phenomenon in real estate industry of Hebei province.
引文
1陈为毅.价格理论新探.经济师,2002(9):42-43
2姜爱林,包纪祥.区域经济规划的模型设计.贵州财经学院学报,2002(5):46-48
3王玉潜.投入产出分析的理论与方法.广州:广东高教出版社,2002:14-25
4许宪春,刘起运.中国投入产出理论与实践(2004).北京:中国统计出版社,2005:31-36
5陈锡康.投入占用产出的理论及其应用.北京:中国统计出版社,1999:17-25
6雷明.绿色投入产出核算—理论与应用.北京:北京大学出版社,2000:53-67
7 R.Dorfman,P.A.Sameulson,R.M.Solow.Liner programming and Analysis. International Journal of Logistics Management,1958:25-36
8 Haeeis.T.R,Goicoechea.A,An interindustry economic model with stochastic parameters,Management Science., 2003,11(2):177-191
9吴和成.投入产出模型若干问题的研究.河海大学技术经济与管理博士学位论文, 2004:11-14
10张红霞,唐焕文.多目标投入产出优化模型应用研究.大连理工大学学报,2001,41(5):514-517
11 Chonghui Guo,Huanwen Tang. Stability Analysis of the Dynamic Input-Output System. Appl.Math .J . Chinese Univ.Ser.B ,2002:46-51
12何剑鸣,王冬.全国种植业非线性投入产出模型的研究.系统工程理论与实践,2002(6):64-72
13李桥兴,刘思峰.多项式形的静态非线性投入产出模型解的存在性研究.运筹与管理,2006(2):91-93
14姜超,张金水.考虑税收的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型及其参数设定.系统工程理论与实践,2004(8):32-37
15刘秀丽,陈锡康.主系数非线性投入占用产出模型.南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2005(3):371-374
16李桥兴,刘思峰.灰色直接消耗系数可拓调整的正特征矢量法.广西大学学报(自然科学版),2007(4):346-349
17胡发胜,王明栋.直接消耗系数最优调整的研究.山东大学学报(理学版),2004(2):47-49
18唐小我.RAS方法的改进算法.电子科技大学学报,2002(1):98-103
19唐焕文,张红霞.RAS方法的一种改进算法.中国投入产出理论与实践,2002(1):99-104
20郭崇慧,唐焕文.修订直接消耗系数的熵优化模型及算法.系统工程学报,2003(5): 431-437
21张恒江,李仲学.投入产出直接消耗系数修订的神经网络方法.系统工程,1997(3): 54-58
22韩东.一种修订直接消耗系数矩阵的新方法.系统工程,1997(2):66-67
23周鹏,唐焕文.列昂惕夫逆阵修订方法研究.经济数学,2003(2):33-40
24 Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nation,Bantam Classics,2003:254-307,
25大卫.李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理.北京:华夏出版社,2005:1-5
26马歇尔著,朱志泰等译.经济学原理.北京:商务印书馆,2005:614-685
27 Meek,R.,Studies in the Labor Theory of Value,Lawrence and Wishart,London Edition,1997:93-115
28 Dean,J.,Decentralization and intercompany pricing,Harvard Business Review,2000,33(4):65-74
29米尔顿.弗里德曼著,鲁晓龙,李黎等译.价格理论.北京:中国商务出版社,1999: 145-170
30傅劲锋.房地产价格决定因素分析.新经济杂志,2007(11):116-120
31江枫.房地产的价格模型及其投资的最优时机选择.宁德师专学报(自然科学学版),2007(4):102-105
32 Jalili.A.R. Evaluating relative performances of four non-survey techniques of updating input -output coefficients. Economics of Planning,2000:315-378
33钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运.投入产出分析.北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993:23-36
34董承章.投入产出分析.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2002:41-75
35王嘉谟.实用非线性动态投入产出模型.北京:国防工业出版社,2003:71-95
36 Mok,H.M.K..A Hedonic Approach to Pricing of Residential Properities in HongKong.HongKong Journal of Business Management,1995, (8):1-15
37 Rosen.S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy. 1974,(4)35-55.
38曹振良等.房地产经济学通论.北京:北京大学出版社.2003:25-44
39 Silva M.S.Looking for Non-negative Solution of a Leontief Dynamic Model.Linear Algebra and Its Application,2003:281-316
40 Gurgul H..Two-sector Dynamic Model of Input-Output Type.System Modelling Simulation,1994(16):71-78
41唐小我.投入产出模型直接消耗系数修订的进一步研究.系统工程,2000(2):62-66
42 Luptacik Mikulas,Bohm Bernhard.Reconsideration of Non-negative Solutions for the Augmented Leontief Model.Input-Output Analysis,1998(2):34-37
43成思危.大型线性目标规划及其应用.郑州:河南科学技术出版社,2000:112-137
44 Simonovits A..A Note on the Underestimation and Overestimation of the Leontief Inverse.Econometrica,1995(3):490-498
45 Lynch.An Assessment of the RAS Method for Updating Input-Output Tables.Readings in Input-Output Analysis,1996(3):271-284
46 Chonghui Guo,Huanwen Tang.Optimization models and algorithms of inverse problem for Input-Output analysis.2002(2):1-8
47 Linden,J.A.vander.The determinants of structural change in the European Union:a new application of RAS.SOM Research Reports,1995(6):16-22
48 Jalili A.R.Evaluating relative performance of four non-survey techniques of updating Input-Output coefficients.Economics of planning,2000(33):221-231
49唐焕文.大连经济开发区1995年价值型投入产出表的编制与应用研究.当代中国投入产出实践与研究,北京:中国统计出版社,1999:42-67
50 [日]新饭田宏著,林贤郁,齐舒畅等译.投入产出分析入门.北京:中国统计出版,2001: 300-311
51 Ghosh A.,Sarkar H..An Input-Output Matrix as a Spatial Configuration.Economic of Planning,1990(2):133-142
52 Leontief W..Quantitative Input-Output relations in the Economic Systems of the United States.Review of Economics and Statistics,1986(18):105-125
53 Sraffa P..The Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities.Cambridge University Press,1986:32-47
54曾力生.关于投入产出模型的比较静态分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2000(4):25-29
55付雪.基于生产函数和投入产出技术的两阶段模型应用.管理评论,2005(5):17-25
56张永岳.国际房地产概述.上海:上海人民出版社. 2004:21-30
57鲍丽香.房地产价格影响因素研究评述.边疆经济文化.2005(9):57-63
58范如国.房地产投资与管理.武汉:武汉大学出版社.2004:56-70
2姜爱林,包纪祥.区域经济规划的模型设计.贵州财经学院学报,2002(5):46-48
3王玉潜.投入产出分析的理论与方法.广州:广东高教出版社,2002:14-25
4许宪春,刘起运.中国投入产出理论与实践(2004).北京:中国统计出版社,2005:31-36
5陈锡康.投入占用产出的理论及其应用.北京:中国统计出版社,1999:17-25
6雷明.绿色投入产出核算—理论与应用.北京:北京大学出版社,2000:53-67
7 R.Dorfman,P.A.Sameulson,R.M.Solow.Liner programming and Analysis. International Journal of Logistics Management,1958:25-36
8 Haeeis.T.R,Goicoechea.A,An interindustry economic model with stochastic parameters,Management Science., 2003,11(2):177-191
9吴和成.投入产出模型若干问题的研究.河海大学技术经济与管理博士学位论文, 2004:11-14
10张红霞,唐焕文.多目标投入产出优化模型应用研究.大连理工大学学报,2001,41(5):514-517
11 Chonghui Guo,Huanwen Tang. Stability Analysis of the Dynamic Input-Output System. Appl.Math .J . Chinese Univ.Ser.B ,2002:46-51
12何剑鸣,王冬.全国种植业非线性投入产出模型的研究.系统工程理论与实践,2002(6):64-72
13李桥兴,刘思峰.多项式形的静态非线性投入产出模型解的存在性研究.运筹与管理,2006(2):91-93
14姜超,张金水.考虑税收的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型及其参数设定.系统工程理论与实践,2004(8):32-37
15刘秀丽,陈锡康.主系数非线性投入占用产出模型.南京理工大学学报(自然科学版),2005(3):371-374
16李桥兴,刘思峰.灰色直接消耗系数可拓调整的正特征矢量法.广西大学学报(自然科学版),2007(4):346-349
17胡发胜,王明栋.直接消耗系数最优调整的研究.山东大学学报(理学版),2004(2):47-49
18唐小我.RAS方法的改进算法.电子科技大学学报,2002(1):98-103
19唐焕文,张红霞.RAS方法的一种改进算法.中国投入产出理论与实践,2002(1):99-104
20郭崇慧,唐焕文.修订直接消耗系数的熵优化模型及算法.系统工程学报,2003(5): 431-437
21张恒江,李仲学.投入产出直接消耗系数修订的神经网络方法.系统工程,1997(3): 54-58
22韩东.一种修订直接消耗系数矩阵的新方法.系统工程,1997(2):66-67
23周鹏,唐焕文.列昂惕夫逆阵修订方法研究.经济数学,2003(2):33-40
24 Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nation,Bantam Classics,2003:254-307,
25大卫.李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理.北京:华夏出版社,2005:1-5
26马歇尔著,朱志泰等译.经济学原理.北京:商务印书馆,2005:614-685
27 Meek,R.,Studies in the Labor Theory of Value,Lawrence and Wishart,London Edition,1997:93-115
28 Dean,J.,Decentralization and intercompany pricing,Harvard Business Review,2000,33(4):65-74
29米尔顿.弗里德曼著,鲁晓龙,李黎等译.价格理论.北京:中国商务出版社,1999: 145-170
30傅劲锋.房地产价格决定因素分析.新经济杂志,2007(11):116-120
31江枫.房地产的价格模型及其投资的最优时机选择.宁德师专学报(自然科学学版),2007(4):102-105
32 Jalili.A.R. Evaluating relative performances of four non-survey techniques of updating input -output coefficients. Economics of Planning,2000:315-378
33钟契夫,陈锡康,刘起运.投入产出分析.北京:中国财政经济出版社,1993:23-36
34董承章.投入产出分析.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2002:41-75
35王嘉谟.实用非线性动态投入产出模型.北京:国防工业出版社,2003:71-95
36 Mok,H.M.K..A Hedonic Approach to Pricing of Residential Properities in HongKong.HongKong Journal of Business Management,1995, (8):1-15
37 Rosen.S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition. Journal of Political Economy. 1974,(4)35-55.
38曹振良等.房地产经济学通论.北京:北京大学出版社.2003:25-44
39 Silva M.S.Looking for Non-negative Solution of a Leontief Dynamic Model.Linear Algebra and Its Application,2003:281-316
40 Gurgul H..Two-sector Dynamic Model of Input-Output Type.System Modelling Simulation,1994(16):71-78
41唐小我.投入产出模型直接消耗系数修订的进一步研究.系统工程,2000(2):62-66
42 Luptacik Mikulas,Bohm Bernhard.Reconsideration of Non-negative Solutions for the Augmented Leontief Model.Input-Output Analysis,1998(2):34-37
43成思危.大型线性目标规划及其应用.郑州:河南科学技术出版社,2000:112-137
44 Simonovits A..A Note on the Underestimation and Overestimation of the Leontief Inverse.Econometrica,1995(3):490-498
45 Lynch.An Assessment of the RAS Method for Updating Input-Output Tables.Readings in Input-Output Analysis,1996(3):271-284
46 Chonghui Guo,Huanwen Tang.Optimization models and algorithms of inverse problem for Input-Output analysis.2002(2):1-8
47 Linden,J.A.vander.The determinants of structural change in the European Union:a new application of RAS.SOM Research Reports,1995(6):16-22
48 Jalili A.R.Evaluating relative performance of four non-survey techniques of updating Input-Output coefficients.Economics of planning,2000(33):221-231
49唐焕文.大连经济开发区1995年价值型投入产出表的编制与应用研究.当代中国投入产出实践与研究,北京:中国统计出版社,1999:42-67
50 [日]新饭田宏著,林贤郁,齐舒畅等译.投入产出分析入门.北京:中国统计出版,2001: 300-311
51 Ghosh A.,Sarkar H..An Input-Output Matrix as a Spatial Configuration.Economic of Planning,1990(2):133-142
52 Leontief W..Quantitative Input-Output relations in the Economic Systems of the United States.Review of Economics and Statistics,1986(18):105-125
53 Sraffa P..The Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities.Cambridge University Press,1986:32-47
54曾力生.关于投入产出模型的比较静态分析.数量经济技术经济研究,2000(4):25-29
55付雪.基于生产函数和投入产出技术的两阶段模型应用.管理评论,2005(5):17-25
56张永岳.国际房地产概述.上海:上海人民出版社. 2004:21-30
57鲍丽香.房地产价格影响因素研究评述.边疆经济文化.2005(9):57-63
58范如国.房地产投资与管理.武汉:武汉大学出版社.2004:56-70