基于EVA的企业价值评估
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摘要
如何评估上市公司的真正价值是证券界长期探索的重要课题,也是投资者最为关心的问题。长期以来,利润指标能够在财务报表中反映出来,而且简单明了,因此目前绝大多数投资者都将其作为评估上市公司价值的标准,并且成为绝大多数上市公司管理者的经营目标和激励基准。事实上,利润等传统指标不能反映企业的真正价值。
本文运用理论分析与实证研究相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,主要研究基于经济增加值评估模型对上市公司的价值评估。本文首先指出选题目的和意义,国内外的研究现状及研究内容和研究方法;其次,介绍EVA的溯源、定义及计算企业价值的方法和步骤;再次,将EVA估价模型与现存主要企业价值评估模型的对比分析,得出EVA估价模型考虑权益资本成本,通过会计调整尽量剔除会计失真影响,着眼于企业的长远发展,能够真实地反映企业价值;最后,应用经济增加值估价模型对上市公司青岛啤酒股份有限公司进行了价值评估,得出折现率对价值评估值影响很大,降低权益资本成本可以大幅度提高企业价值。
本文的特点在于展示了用经济增加值估计模型评估青岛啤酒的全部过程,这在国内是相对比较少的。本文希望通过探讨经济增加值估价模型的具体分析计算,为广大投资者提供有益借鉴。
How to evaluate the real value of the listed companies is not only the important thesis in securities market but also the best concerned problem of investors. Some profit indexes have acted as the scaled standard of the listed companies for a long time. Most investors also make profit indexes as the scaled standard of the listed companies now, because it can be reflected in financial forms and have the characteristics of simple and clear, In fact, it can’t reflect the real value of the company.
This thesis uses the method that not only the theories research and the substantial evidence researches but also quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis combine together. The author firstly introduces why to choose the topic, the purpose and the content. Secondly, takes an introduction to the theory foundation of the way of evaluation in brief. Thirdly, contrastively analyzes EVA model and the other evaluation models in the highest flight, elicits it can reflects the true value and real performances of the companies, in view of equity capital, eliminating accountant distortion through accounting adjustment, considering the future of companies. Finanly, the substantial evidence research, applying the EVA model to calculate the evaluation of Qingdaopijiu co.ltd, figures that equity capital is important factor to corporation evaluation, and we can increase the corporation value by reducing the equity capital.
The characteristics of this thesis lie in to display all the valuation process in detail, and study of this aspect is relatively less in the domestic. The purpose lies in inquiry into the concrete calculation for investors.
本文运用理论分析与实证研究相结合,定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,主要研究基于经济增加值评估模型对上市公司的价值评估。本文首先指出选题目的和意义,国内外的研究现状及研究内容和研究方法;其次,介绍EVA的溯源、定义及计算企业价值的方法和步骤;再次,将EVA估价模型与现存主要企业价值评估模型的对比分析,得出EVA估价模型考虑权益资本成本,通过会计调整尽量剔除会计失真影响,着眼于企业的长远发展,能够真实地反映企业价值;最后,应用经济增加值估价模型对上市公司青岛啤酒股份有限公司进行了价值评估,得出折现率对价值评估值影响很大,降低权益资本成本可以大幅度提高企业价值。
本文的特点在于展示了用经济增加值估计模型评估青岛啤酒的全部过程,这在国内是相对比较少的。本文希望通过探讨经济增加值估价模型的具体分析计算,为广大投资者提供有益借鉴。
How to evaluate the real value of the listed companies is not only the important thesis in securities market but also the best concerned problem of investors. Some profit indexes have acted as the scaled standard of the listed companies for a long time. Most investors also make profit indexes as the scaled standard of the listed companies now, because it can be reflected in financial forms and have the characteristics of simple and clear, In fact, it can’t reflect the real value of the company.
This thesis uses the method that not only the theories research and the substantial evidence researches but also quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis combine together. The author firstly introduces why to choose the topic, the purpose and the content. Secondly, takes an introduction to the theory foundation of the way of evaluation in brief. Thirdly, contrastively analyzes EVA model and the other evaluation models in the highest flight, elicits it can reflects the true value and real performances of the companies, in view of equity capital, eliminating accountant distortion through accounting adjustment, considering the future of companies. Finanly, the substantial evidence research, applying the EVA model to calculate the evaluation of Qingdaopijiu co.ltd, figures that equity capital is important factor to corporation evaluation, and we can increase the corporation value by reducing the equity capital.
The characteristics of this thesis lie in to display all the valuation process in detail, and study of this aspect is relatively less in the domestic. The purpose lies in inquiry into the concrete calculation for investors.
引文
1 Irving Fisher. The nature of Capital and Income. New York. The Macmittan co.1927.
2 Modigliani.F, M.H.Miller. The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment.American Economic Review. 1958, 48: 261~97.
3 Ohlson J. Earnings, book value, and dividends in security valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research. 1995,11:661~687.
4 Miller, M.H. Debt and taxes. Journal of Finance. 1977,32:261~276.
5 Miles J.,R.Ezzell. The weighted average cost of capital, prefect capital market and project life: a clarification. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 1980,15:719~730.
6 Rogerson, W. Intertemporal cost allocation and managerial investment incentives: a theory explaining the use of economic value added as a performance measure.Journal of Political Economy.1997, 105: 770~795.
7 Anteil R., J. Jordan J., Mukherji A. . A symptotic Optimality of residual income maximization. Review of Accounting Studies.1998, 2: 207~229.
8 Antcil R., J. Jordan J., Mukherji A.. Activity-based costing for economic value added. Review of Accounting Studies, 1998,2:231~264.
9 Stoughton N, Zechner J.. Optimal Capital Allocation Using RAROC and EVA. SSRN Working Paper Series. 1999.
10 Wallace J. Adopting residual income-based compensation plans: Do you get what you pay for. Journal of Accounting and Economics.1997,24: 275~300.
11 Wallace J. EVA financial systems: Management perspectives. Advances in Management Accounting, 1998,6: 1~15.
12 Stern J M, Stewart G B, Chew D H. The EVA Financial Management System. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. 1993,2:32~46.
13 Shawn Tully. The Real Key to Creative Wealth. Fortune. 1993,2: 38~50.
14 S David Young. EVA and Value Based Management. McGraw Hill. 2001:197~287.
15 Glassman J K,K A Hasset. Stork Prices Are Still Far Too Low. Wall Street Journal Europe. 1999,3.
16 O’Byme,Stephen. EVA and Market Value. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. 1996:116~125.
17 郑旻. EVA——企业价值评估的新视角. 科技和产业. 2005,6:33~35.
18 胡建军,刘又礼. 用 EVA-经济增加值法评估企业价值的分析.贵州航空工业管理学院学报.2004,9(3):29~31.
19 王炜,陈强,杨宠怀. 试论 EVA 评估方法. 安徽商贸职业技术学院学报. 2005,1:28~32.
20 李双燕,卫民堂,金超.MVA、EVA 在企业价值评估中的应用比较.现代管理科学.2005,9:17~18.
21 王燕妮,王波. EVA 与现有指标的比较分析.现代管理科学.2004,7:48~49.
22 潘骞. EVA 价值评估模型在资产评估中的应用.中国资产评估. 2003,6:21~24.
23 段爱玲. EVA 与企业价值评估. 企业改革与管理. 2003,8:12~13.
24 王燕妮,张襄英. 企业价值评估的新方法——经济附加值(EVA). 西北农林科技大学学报. 2003,3:49~52.
25 王炜. 基于 EVA 的企业价值评估方法. 价值工程. 2003,4:8~9.
26 涂毅,刘源.EVA 与价值评估财会研究.2003,8:18～20.
27 梅良勇.经济增加值(EVA)估价模型在企业并购价值评估中的应用.统计与决策.2005.6:131~132.
28 刘 斌 , 李 广 磊 . 基 于 EVA 的 企 业 价 值 评 价 方 法 . 技 术 经 济 管 理 研究.2002,3:64~65.
29 牛凌云,杜琼. EVA 企业价值模式探讨.现代企业.2003,8:40~41.
30 谢明华,乔卓.在我国上市公司业绩评估中的应用.现代企业.2002.2:43~45.
31 秦红,王丽霞.EVA 评估指标及其用于衡量我国上市公司业绩的局限性.冶金经济与管理. 2002,9:40~41.
32 郭 家 虎 , 崔 文 娟 .EVA 对 企 业 价 值 的 解 释 度 比 较 研 究 . 当 代 财 经 . 2005,5:123~126.
33 胡俊娣. 投资回报率和经济附加值在财务评估中的比较研究. 商业研究. 2003,11:86~88.
34 武勇 , 刘曼琴 . 并购过程目标企业价值评估的理论研究 . 现代管理科学.2005,8:37~39.
35 黄俊 , 李飞 . 经济增加值模型与我国上市公司价值的评估 . 统计与决策.2005,1:114~115.
36 张进智,王春.EVA 与企业绩效考核.南海出版公司.2004:28~65.
37 金永红,叶中行,奚玉芹.价值评估.清华大学出版社.2004:203~257.
38 S.戴维.杨,斯蒂芬.F.奥伯恩. EVA 与价值管——实用指南.社会科学文献出版社.2002:120~200.
39 汤姆科普兰,蒂姆科勒,杰克默林.公司价值的衡量与管理.电子工业出版社.2002:102~241.
40 Linterne. Security Prices, Risk and Maximal Gains form Diversification. Journal of Finance. 1965,12.
41 Sharpe. Capital Asset Prices, A Theory of Market Epuilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finances. 1964,9.
42 Stepnen A Ross,Randolph W Westerlidld,Jeffrey F Jaff. Corperate Finance. McGraw-Hill Companied, Inc.1999.
43 Kaplan, S.N, R.S.Ruback. The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts:An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Finance. 1995,50(4):144~122.
2 Modigliani.F, M.H.Miller. The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment.American Economic Review. 1958, 48: 261~97.
3 Ohlson J. Earnings, book value, and dividends in security valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research. 1995,11:661~687.
4 Miller, M.H. Debt and taxes. Journal of Finance. 1977,32:261~276.
5 Miles J.,R.Ezzell. The weighted average cost of capital, prefect capital market and project life: a clarification. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 1980,15:719~730.
6 Rogerson, W. Intertemporal cost allocation and managerial investment incentives: a theory explaining the use of economic value added as a performance measure.Journal of Political Economy.1997, 105: 770~795.
7 Anteil R., J. Jordan J., Mukherji A. . A symptotic Optimality of residual income maximization. Review of Accounting Studies.1998, 2: 207~229.
8 Antcil R., J. Jordan J., Mukherji A.. Activity-based costing for economic value added. Review of Accounting Studies, 1998,2:231~264.
9 Stoughton N, Zechner J.. Optimal Capital Allocation Using RAROC and EVA. SSRN Working Paper Series. 1999.
10 Wallace J. Adopting residual income-based compensation plans: Do you get what you pay for. Journal of Accounting and Economics.1997,24: 275~300.
11 Wallace J. EVA financial systems: Management perspectives. Advances in Management Accounting, 1998,6: 1~15.
12 Stern J M, Stewart G B, Chew D H. The EVA Financial Management System. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. 1993,2:32~46.
13 Shawn Tully. The Real Key to Creative Wealth. Fortune. 1993,2: 38~50.
14 S David Young. EVA and Value Based Management. McGraw Hill. 2001:197~287.
15 Glassman J K,K A Hasset. Stork Prices Are Still Far Too Low. Wall Street Journal Europe. 1999,3.
16 O’Byme,Stephen. EVA and Market Value. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. 1996:116~125.
17 郑旻. EVA——企业价值评估的新视角. 科技和产业. 2005,6:33~35.
18 胡建军,刘又礼. 用 EVA-经济增加值法评估企业价值的分析.贵州航空工业管理学院学报.2004,9(3):29~31.
19 王炜,陈强,杨宠怀. 试论 EVA 评估方法. 安徽商贸职业技术学院学报. 2005,1:28~32.
20 李双燕,卫民堂,金超.MVA、EVA 在企业价值评估中的应用比较.现代管理科学.2005,9:17~18.
21 王燕妮,王波. EVA 与现有指标的比较分析.现代管理科学.2004,7:48~49.
22 潘骞. EVA 价值评估模型在资产评估中的应用.中国资产评估. 2003,6:21~24.
23 段爱玲. EVA 与企业价值评估. 企业改革与管理. 2003,8:12~13.
24 王燕妮,张襄英. 企业价值评估的新方法——经济附加值(EVA). 西北农林科技大学学报. 2003,3:49~52.
25 王炜. 基于 EVA 的企业价值评估方法. 价值工程. 2003,4:8~9.
26 涂毅,刘源.EVA 与价值评估财会研究.2003,8:18～20.
27 梅良勇.经济增加值(EVA)估价模型在企业并购价值评估中的应用.统计与决策.2005.6:131~132.
28 刘 斌 , 李 广 磊 . 基 于 EVA 的 企 业 价 值 评 价 方 法 . 技 术 经 济 管 理 研究.2002,3:64~65.
29 牛凌云,杜琼. EVA 企业价值模式探讨.现代企业.2003,8:40~41.
30 谢明华,乔卓.在我国上市公司业绩评估中的应用.现代企业.2002.2:43~45.
31 秦红,王丽霞.EVA 评估指标及其用于衡量我国上市公司业绩的局限性.冶金经济与管理. 2002,9:40~41.
32 郭 家 虎 , 崔 文 娟 .EVA 对 企 业 价 值 的 解 释 度 比 较 研 究 . 当 代 财 经 . 2005,5:123~126.
33 胡俊娣. 投资回报率和经济附加值在财务评估中的比较研究. 商业研究. 2003,11:86~88.
34 武勇 , 刘曼琴 . 并购过程目标企业价值评估的理论研究 . 现代管理科学.2005,8:37~39.
35 黄俊 , 李飞 . 经济增加值模型与我国上市公司价值的评估 . 统计与决策.2005,1:114~115.
36 张进智,王春.EVA 与企业绩效考核.南海出版公司.2004:28~65.
37 金永红,叶中行,奚玉芹.价值评估.清华大学出版社.2004:203~257.
38 S.戴维.杨,斯蒂芬.F.奥伯恩. EVA 与价值管——实用指南.社会科学文献出版社.2002:120~200.
39 汤姆科普兰,蒂姆科勒,杰克默林.公司价值的衡量与管理.电子工业出版社.2002:102~241.
40 Linterne. Security Prices, Risk and Maximal Gains form Diversification. Journal of Finance. 1965,12.
41 Sharpe. Capital Asset Prices, A Theory of Market Epuilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finances. 1964,9.
42 Stepnen A Ross,Randolph W Westerlidld,Jeffrey F Jaff. Corperate Finance. McGraw-Hill Companied, Inc.1999.
43 Kaplan, S.N, R.S.Ruback. The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts:An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Finance. 1995,50(4):144~122.