手机支付第三方运营商经济效益与发展的实证研究
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摘要
手机支付作为一门新兴的行业,国外发展已经非常成熟,一些发达国家的手机用户早已全面进入了手机结算时代。当国外手机支付进行得如火如荼的时候,我国的手机支付还在被一些诸如相关的政策、产业价值链、安全性、消费习惯等因素制约着。手机支付给人们带来的不仅是方便快捷的消费结算模式,同时给人们带来的是一种全新的消费观念,使人们可以足不出户就能随心所欲的购买自己所想要的东西。
     在国内这样一个大的市场环境下,手机支付的发展前景是非常具有盈利价值的,吸引着众多行业相联合来发展这一新兴的行业。然而,由于手机支付产业链的特殊性,涉及多个行业的相互利益关系,如银行、信用卡组织、移动运营商、手机终端厂商、手机支付平台提供商、商业机构、内容和服务提供商、用户等,这些相关行业的存在是一个利益共存体。因此,要想让手机支付行业在国内站稳脚,需要多方行业的相互协调和支持。
     目前存在于全世界范围的手机支付运营模式有多种,手机支付的运营模式由手机支付价值链中各方的利益分配原则及合作关系所决定,目前主要存在以下五种形式:网络运营商独立运营模式、第三方运营商独立运营模式、网络运营商与金融组织联合运营模式、技术供应商参与运营模式和银行独立运营模式。而目前国内研究的比较多的是前三种运营模式,也是国内存在的比较多的运营模式。
     然而笔者认为手机支付作为一项增值服务,其支付过程的安全性、支付方式的便捷性、支付内容的合理性、支付结构的完整性都影响着人们对手机支付的信任度和满足度。如果单纯的依靠网络运营商和金融组织机构来联合实现,笔者觉得不能提供定制的服务,技术上也不完善。而第三方运营商的出现,作为专业化的手机支付的中介平台,为手机支付过程提供了安全、快捷、专业的交易平台,将银行、运营商等各利益群体之间错综复杂的关系简单化,将多对多的关系变为多对一的关系,从而大大提高了商务运作的效率,也使得用户有了多种选择,只要加入平台,即可享受跨行之间的各种支付服务。
     因此,本文旨在对手机支付的第三方运营商的经济效益进行分析。在借鉴国内外已有的研究成果的基础上,通过构建第三方运营商的评价指标体系,对这些指标进行权重赋值,从而建立一个比较好的对第三方运营商进行经济效益综合评价的模型。并用模糊综合分析法对其经济效益水平进行分析,以对第三方运营商的可持续性发展进行研究,在国内手机支付发展还不是很强劲的时候,通过本文的分析,对国内手机支付发展具有一定的参考价值。
     本文在对手机支付第三方运营商的经济效益进行评价分析过程中,综合运用了层次分析法、主成分分析法、多元统计学、运筹学和模糊综合评价法进行分析。首先,在分析了国内手机支付发展现状以及其目前所遇到的问题前提下,确定了以第三方运营商作为本文主要的研究对象,对于国内手机支付未来的发展模式具有一定的参考和代表价值;其次,通过对第三方运营商运营模式的分析,在借鉴已有的研究成果的基础上,提出更为完善的第三方运营商经济评价指标体系;接着,综合考查多目标权重的确定方法,将定性与定量分析相统一,结合层次分析法和主成分分析法来确定各评价指标在经济效益分析中所占的综合权重,并在此基础上采用多目标线性加权的综合评分方法构建了第三方运营商的经济效益评价模型;再次,由于经济效益评价模型中涉及到多个指标值,考虑到满足多个变量同时变化对目标函数的影响,因此笔者引入模糊综合评价法,采取定性和定量相结合的方式,运用模糊数学的原理,将多个经济评价指标进行模糊分析和评价,以便更直观的评价第三方运营商的经济效益可持续性发展前景;最后,通过实际分析一个第三方运营商的经济效益情况,对比该第三方运营商以往几年的经济效益状况,运用模糊综合评价法,来预测其可持续性发展趋势,从而检验模型的正确性与适用性。
     通过本文的深入研究与分析比较,可以得出如下重要结论:
     (1)影响第三方运营商经济效益水平最关键的经济评价指标分别是提高平台可行性、提高系统可持续性、提高设备维护能力和提高系统安全系数,因此在今后国内手机支付第三方运营商的发展过程中,应该结合当前手机支付的发展局势,重点研究影响其关键评价指标的因素。
     (2)本文所建立的经济效益评价模型是建立在对经济评价指标进行科学性分析的基础上,其评价结果合理有效,能真实的反映例证中公司的经济效益水平。并且本文采用了模糊综合评价法对手机支付第三方运营商的可持续性发展进行预测,有助于国内手机支付第三方运营商从市场和企业的实际情况出发,抓住手机支付目前发展的瓶颈和不足,为以后手机支付第三方运营商的发展模式和发展重点提供一定的指导依据和参考价值。
     总体来看,本文的创新之处主要归结如下:
     (1)研究角度的创新。手机支付是一门新兴的产业,其在国外的发展已经比较成熟,在国内还处于起步阶段。而目前广泛存在于国内的手机支付模式是网络运营商和金融运营商相结合的方式,对于第三方运营商的模式,国内的相关研究文献还比较少。
     (2)权重确定方法的创新。在对第三方运营商经济评价指标的权重赋值的过程中,笔者提出层次分析法和主成分分析法相结合的方式,综合考虑指标数据本身提供的信息量,解决由于单一的指标提供的信息量不足的缺点,从而使后面建立第三方运营商经济效益评价模型更加合理化、全面化和系统化。
     (3)第三方运营商经济效益评价模型的创新。运用多目标线性加权的综合评分法对第三方运营商的经济评价指标进行综合考虑,将这些经济评价指标的权重值应用到对经济效益的评价中,对第三方运营商的经济效益情况进行总体的评价,该经济效益模型对第三方运营商有一定的实际应用价值和指导意义。
     通过本文的研究,对手机支付第三方运营商的运营模式、影响手机支付第三方运营商的经济效益评价指标、经济效益评价模型的原理和构建以及模糊综合评价法在第三方运营商经济效益发展预测中的应用有了一个基本的框架。但必须指出的是,由于第三方运营商涉及的行业比较多,且手机支付在国内发展还处于初步发展阶段,在发展过程中难免会存在一些瓶颈和弊端。而本文对于手机支付第三方运营商经济效益评价只是一方面的研究,是一个初步的简化的过程,在实践应用中还有待完善和健全,还有许多问题和变化需要进一步深入探讨。
As a new developed field, mobile payment is prevailed late. However, in foreign country, it was mature, some developed countries have entered into a period of all things paid with mobile phone. In our country, mobile payment is restricted by some factors such as related policy, industry value chain, security, customer habit and so on. Mobile payment brings us not only quick and convenient consumption settlement mode, but also a bran-new consumption concept, it makes people to buy anything they want at their pleasure without going outside.
     In domestic market environment, the prospect development of mobile payment is valuable, which attract other industries to develop this industry. However, due to the particularity of industry chain of mobile payment, the chain relate to many industry’s interest, all these industries make up of interest-shared unit. Therefore, it is necessary to harmonize these industries to make mobile payment stand stably in domestic market.
     At present, there are many kind of mobile payment operation mode all over the world. Mobile payment operation mode is decided by interest distribution principle and cooperation relationship of mobile payment interest chain. There exist five modes for the moment: network operator independent mode, third party operator independent mode, network operator and finance organization cooperative mode, technology supplier participant mode, bank operator independent mode. In our country, we research former three mode which are prevailed in our country.
     However, author consider that as a value increment service, factors such as security of payment process, convenience of payment method, reasonability of payment content, integrity of payment configuration influence people whether trust and satisfy mobile payment. The appearance of third party operator who is professional media-platform of mobile payment, supply with secure, convenient and professional platform for process of mobile payment. Third party operator simplifies complicated relationship between bank operator and other operators, makes much-to-much relationship changed to much-to-one relationship, enhances business operation efficiency greatly, supplies customer with more choices.
     The paper aims at analyze economic benefit of third part operator of mobile payment, use research result both exist in foreign and domestic for reference, by building evaluation index system of third party operator and evaluating these indexes, building a model for synthesis evaluating economic benefit of third party operator, analyze economic benefit level by using fuzzy synthetic evaluation to study permanent development of third party operator. In the environment of immature development of domestic mobile payment, the author intents to give some valuable reference suggestion to the development of domestic mobile payment through analyses of this paper.
     In the process of synthesis evaluation on economic benefit of third party operator, the author applies Analytic Hierarchy Process, Principal components analyses method, multi-statistics, Operations Research, fuzzy synthetic evaluation to analyzing. Firstly, analyze present status and problem of development of domestic mobile payment, choose third party operator as research object of this paper, which shows reference value of future development mode of third party operator; secondly, through analyses of third party operator operation mode and using research result existed for reference, bring forward more perfect evaluation index system of third party operator; then, consider multi-target evaluation method, combine qualitative analyses with quantitative analyses, together with Analytic Hierarchy Process and Principal components analyses method to determine evaluation of each evaluation index, on the basis of which using multi-target linearity evaluation synthesis method to build economic benefit evaluation model of third party operator; thirdly, considering the economic benefit evaluation model related to many indexes and influence on target function caused by satisfy change of several variable, the author applies fuzzy synthetic evaluation, combine qualitative analyses with quantitative analyses, illegibly analyze and evaluate several economic evaluation index to analyze permanent development of economic benefit of third party operator intuitionistically; finally, by analyze economic benefit of an existed third party operator, compare last several years’economic benefit status, using fuzzy synthetic evaluation, forecast trend of permanent development, to prove validity and applicability of model.
     The author draws conclusion by research and analyses of the paper as follows: (1) the key economic evaluation index influences economic benefit of third party operator is improving feasibility of platform, enhancing permanence of system, increasing maintenance of equipment and advancing security of system. Thus, in future, the business should pay attention to these indexes in the process of development; (2) The model of economic benefit evaluation is based on scientific analyses of economic benefit index, result of evaluation is reasonable. The paper uses fuzzy synthetic evaluation to forecast permanent development of third party operator, helps third party operator consider status of market and entrepreneur and grasp shortage of development of mobile payment, provides instruction and reference to development mode and emphases of third party operator.
     As a whole, the paper mainly attributes to the following three points:
     (1) Research perspective innovation. Mobile payment is a new developed industry, it develops maturely in foreign country and in domestic it is in beginning stage. Network operator and finance organization cooperative mode is prevailed in domestic, but there is little research in third party operator mode. So, the subject and content is an innovation.
     (2) The evaluation method innovation. In the process of evaluating economic evaluation index of third party operator, the author combines Analytic Hierarchy Process with Principal components analyses method, synthesis consider information included in index, overcome shortage of single index lacking of information, make economic benefit evaluation model of third party operator more reasonable, comprehensive and systematical.
     (3) Economic benefit evaluation model innovation. Using multi-target linearity synthesis evaluation method to analyze economic evaluation index of third party operator, apply these index evaluation to analyses of economic benefit and make a whole analyses, to provide with instruction and reference to third party operator.
     Through research of this paper, there is a basic frame of operation mode of third party operator, economic benefit evaluation index, principle of economic evaluation mode, application of fuzzy synthetic evaluation in forecasting development of economic benefit. But, due to third party operator relate to many industry, and mobile payment is in the beginning stage, there exist shortage in the process of development. The research of economic benefit evaluation of third party operator is just on the one hand and a simplified process, which should be perfected and complemented in the practical application, also some problem and change will be discussed deeply in the future.
引文
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