人口经济压力空间格局及其演变的定量研究
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摘要
世界人口与经济发展在地理分布上存在着显著的不平衡,不同地区和国家之间贫富差距日趋悬殊,已成为当今世界上最引人注目的社会经济现象之一。联合国经济和社会事务部在高度评价了20世纪人类所取得的巨大发展成就的同时,也认为人口与经济发展的显著不平衡是一个严重的世界性问题。而人口和经济之间的关系是区域可持续发展的轴心问题,人口与经济的协调发展是世界各地区普遍追求的目标之一,因此长期以来倍受地理学、经济学和人口学的关注。正确处理好人口与经济发展的关系,将有助于解决人口、经济、资源和环境的协调发展问题,是区域经济在良好的人口环境下健康、快速、协调发展的前提。
人口与经济协调发展就是指两个系统间协同运作,相互适应,以一种合理的比例关系发展。人口与经济发展是否相适应,就可以通过人口经济压力来衡量。本文针对影响人口经济压力的内在矛盾和外在因素,参考国内外众多学者的相关研究,建立了反映区域人口经济压力的评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析法计算甘肃省人口经济压力指数,最后采用GIS重分类方法,定量分析了甘肃省人口经济压力的空间格局及其演变过程,以期对甘肃省未来人口与资源、环境、经济和社会的和谐持续发展等相关研究提供参考。
研究结果表明,甘肃省各县(市、区)的现状人口经济压力空间格局具有明显的地域特征,表现为经济较发达、自然资源条件较好、人口增长较慢、人口素质较高的地区人口经济压力较小;反之,人口经济压力大。从时间序列上看,在1985—2006年间,甘肃省大部分县(市、区)人口经济压力都有不同程度的增加,人口自身带来的压力是主要因素,经济发展缓慢也是不可忽视的重要因素。人口经济压力较小的县(市、区)主要集中于经济发展水平和自然资源条件相对较好的兰州市和河西地区,这些地区或是水土光热资源相对丰富的灌溉农业区,或是矿产资源富集的新兴工业区,生产力水平较高,人均占有资源和人均生活水平也相应较高,具有人口与经济集聚的较强能力,经济优势明显,人口承载力强,人口与经济发展比较协调;人口经济压力较大的县(市、区)主要集中分布在南部高寒阴湿区和黄土高原半干旱农业区,这些地区经济水平相对低下,发展条件较差,经济增长缓慢,人口增长较快,人均占有资源和人均收入较低,人口与经济发展协调状况差,经济发展滞后于人口增长。今后,这些地区需要在继续控制人口增长、提高人口素质的同时,调整经济结构,转变经济增长方式,提高资源利用效率,以达到人口与经济的协调可持续发展。
The world's population and economic development have significant imbalances in the geographical distribution, the rich and poor gap between different regions and countries become increasingly evident, it has become one of the world's most high-profile socio-economic phenomenons. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs spoke highly the enormous human development achievements in the 20th century and believed that population and economic development of a significant imbalance is a serious global problem as well. Population and economic relations is the core issue of the regional sustainable development, the coordinated development of population and economy is one of the general pursued objectives in different regions of the world, so it has long been highly concerned by the geography, economics and demography. Handle the relationship between population and economic development correctly will help to solve the population, economy, resources and environmental development issues. It is the premise of the regional economy in the good health of the population, environment, rapid and coordinated development.
Population and economic coordinated development refers to coordinated operation between the two systems, each adapted to a reasonable proportion of relations. Population and economic development, whether or not to adapt, can be measured by the population-economy pressure. This paper aims at the internal economic contradictions and external factors on the impact of population-economy pressure, with the references domestic and foreign research scholars, establishs an evaluation index system to reflect the regional population-economy pressure, using principal component analysis method to calculate the population-economy pressure index of Gansu Province, using GIS re-classification method make quantitative analysis of the spatial pattern and its evolution of the population-economy pressure in Gansu Province, to provide references of the future population and resources, the environment, economic and social harmony sustainable development and other related research.
The research results show that the spatial pattern of population-economy pressure of each county (city, district) in Gansu province has obvious geographical characteristics. It performs that the regions with more developed economies, better natural resources, slower population growth, high-quality population has smaller population-economy pressure, otherwise has greater population-economy pressure. From the point of view of time series, in 1985-2006, the population-economy pressures in the majority of counties (cities, districts) in Gansu Province have varying degrees of increase, the pressure brought by population of its own is a major factor and the slow economic development is also an important factor that can not be ignored. Counties (cities, districts) with smaller population-economy pressure mainly concentrated in Lanzhou city and Hexi region with the relatively good level of economic development and natural resource conditions. These areas are irrigated agriculture areas with relative abundance of Water, soil, light and heat resources, and new industrial areas with enrichment of the mineral resources and higher level of productivity, per capita share of resources and per capita standard of living. It has strong population and economic concentration ability, obvious economic advantages, strongpopulation carrying capacity, and coordinated development of the population and economy. Counties (cities, districts) with greater population-economy pressure mainly concentrated in south alpine wet area and semi-arid agricultural areas in Loess plateau. These areas have relatively low economic level, poor development condition, slow economic growth, rapid population growth, low per capita resources and per capita income, poor coordinated of population and economic development, and economic development lags behind population growth. In the future, these areas need to continue to control population growth and improve the quality of the population, at the same time, adjust economic structure, transform the mode of economic growth and improve the efficiency of resource use, then achieve coordinated and sustainable development of population and economy.
人口与经济协调发展就是指两个系统间协同运作,相互适应,以一种合理的比例关系发展。人口与经济发展是否相适应,就可以通过人口经济压力来衡量。本文针对影响人口经济压力的内在矛盾和外在因素,参考国内外众多学者的相关研究,建立了反映区域人口经济压力的评价指标体系,并采用主成分分析法计算甘肃省人口经济压力指数,最后采用GIS重分类方法,定量分析了甘肃省人口经济压力的空间格局及其演变过程,以期对甘肃省未来人口与资源、环境、经济和社会的和谐持续发展等相关研究提供参考。
研究结果表明,甘肃省各县(市、区)的现状人口经济压力空间格局具有明显的地域特征,表现为经济较发达、自然资源条件较好、人口增长较慢、人口素质较高的地区人口经济压力较小;反之,人口经济压力大。从时间序列上看,在1985—2006年间,甘肃省大部分县(市、区)人口经济压力都有不同程度的增加,人口自身带来的压力是主要因素,经济发展缓慢也是不可忽视的重要因素。人口经济压力较小的县(市、区)主要集中于经济发展水平和自然资源条件相对较好的兰州市和河西地区,这些地区或是水土光热资源相对丰富的灌溉农业区,或是矿产资源富集的新兴工业区,生产力水平较高,人均占有资源和人均生活水平也相应较高,具有人口与经济集聚的较强能力,经济优势明显,人口承载力强,人口与经济发展比较协调;人口经济压力较大的县(市、区)主要集中分布在南部高寒阴湿区和黄土高原半干旱农业区,这些地区经济水平相对低下,发展条件较差,经济增长缓慢,人口增长较快,人均占有资源和人均收入较低,人口与经济发展协调状况差,经济发展滞后于人口增长。今后,这些地区需要在继续控制人口增长、提高人口素质的同时,调整经济结构,转变经济增长方式,提高资源利用效率,以达到人口与经济的协调可持续发展。
The world's population and economic development have significant imbalances in the geographical distribution, the rich and poor gap between different regions and countries become increasingly evident, it has become one of the world's most high-profile socio-economic phenomenons. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs spoke highly the enormous human development achievements in the 20th century and believed that population and economic development of a significant imbalance is a serious global problem as well. Population and economic relations is the core issue of the regional sustainable development, the coordinated development of population and economy is one of the general pursued objectives in different regions of the world, so it has long been highly concerned by the geography, economics and demography. Handle the relationship between population and economic development correctly will help to solve the population, economy, resources and environmental development issues. It is the premise of the regional economy in the good health of the population, environment, rapid and coordinated development.
Population and economic coordinated development refers to coordinated operation between the two systems, each adapted to a reasonable proportion of relations. Population and economic development, whether or not to adapt, can be measured by the population-economy pressure. This paper aims at the internal economic contradictions and external factors on the impact of population-economy pressure, with the references domestic and foreign research scholars, establishs an evaluation index system to reflect the regional population-economy pressure, using principal component analysis method to calculate the population-economy pressure index of Gansu Province, using GIS re-classification method make quantitative analysis of the spatial pattern and its evolution of the population-economy pressure in Gansu Province, to provide references of the future population and resources, the environment, economic and social harmony sustainable development and other related research.
The research results show that the spatial pattern of population-economy pressure of each county (city, district) in Gansu province has obvious geographical characteristics. It performs that the regions with more developed economies, better natural resources, slower population growth, high-quality population has smaller population-economy pressure, otherwise has greater population-economy pressure. From the point of view of time series, in 1985-2006, the population-economy pressures in the majority of counties (cities, districts) in Gansu Province have varying degrees of increase, the pressure brought by population of its own is a major factor and the slow economic development is also an important factor that can not be ignored. Counties (cities, districts) with smaller population-economy pressure mainly concentrated in Lanzhou city and Hexi region with the relatively good level of economic development and natural resource conditions. These areas are irrigated agriculture areas with relative abundance of Water, soil, light and heat resources, and new industrial areas with enrichment of the mineral resources and higher level of productivity, per capita share of resources and per capita standard of living. It has strong population and economic concentration ability, obvious economic advantages, strongpopulation carrying capacity, and coordinated development of the population and economy. Counties (cities, districts) with greater population-economy pressure mainly concentrated in south alpine wet area and semi-arid agricultural areas in Loess plateau. These areas have relatively low economic level, poor development condition, slow economic growth, rapid population growth, low per capita resources and per capita income, poor coordinated of population and economic development, and economic development lags behind population growth. In the future, these areas need to continue to control population growth and improve the quality of the population, at the same time, adjust economic structure, transform the mode of economic growth and improve the efficiency of resource use, then achieve coordinated and sustainable development of population and economy.
引文
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