基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径研究
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摘要
随着世界经济的发展,各国均越来越重视沿海地区临港产业的发展。然而临港产业作为资源密集型产业,在促进经济增长的同时,又对海岸线、临港土地、淡水、海洋、能源等资源形成了极大的依赖性。而资源的有限性及环境容量的限制又对临港产业的发展形成了反作用,二者之间的相互作用客观上促使了临港产业与区域承载力之间作用机制的形成。所以,明确区域承载力与临港产业的作用机制对于进行临港产业发展路径决策分析尤为重要。
本文首先在文献综述的基础上对区域承载力进行了概念界定,并从集成角度,借助分层结构模型识别了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成影响因素,并在此基础上构建相应的评价指标体系。随后本文引入灰色关联分析法与模糊积分法构建了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策模型。
最后在算例分析的基础上,本文得出如下结论:区域承载力的各要素对临港产业集成的发展起到不同的作用,包括区域环境的制约作用、区域资源的支撑作用、腹地基础设施的辅助作用、区域软实力的调节作用、港口区位因素的决定性作用。应用基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策分析模型可以得到三方面的路径决策依据:某行业的灰色关联度越大,对于区域GDP的贡献越大,为促进经济发展应优先发展这些行业;某行业的模糊评价指数越大,其区域承载力承载状态越佳,优先发展该行业对区域承载力构成的威胁较小;对于每一个行业,解模糊化后的要素评估值越小,该要素对该行业发展的约束就越大,视为发展该行业的瓶颈。
With the development of the world economy, many countries are more and more attention of the development of port-vicinity industry. However, as a kind of resource-intensive industries, port-vicinity industry has formed enormous dependence on the land, marine, coastline and energy in promoting economic growth. But the limitation of resources environmental capacity formed a backlash on the development of port-vicinity industry, the interaction between them objectively promoted the formation of the mechanism between port-vicinity industry and regional carrying capacity. So it's especially important for the analysis of the development path of port-vicinity industry to clarify the mechanism between regional carrying capacity and port-vicinity industry.
Firstly, the article gives the definition of regional carrying capacity on the basis of literature review, and from the integrated point of view, recognizes the influence factors of integrated port-vicinity industry based on the regional carrying capacity recurring to the hierarchy identification model, and based on this constructing the evaluation index system. Then the article introduces gray correlation analysis and fuzzy integral methods and has set up an decision model of development path of integrated port-vicinity industry based on regional carrying capacity.
At last, on the basis of an example analysis, the article conclusion that: various factors of regional carrying capacity play different roles on the development of integrated port-vicinity industry, including the restricting effects of regional environment, supporting effects of regional resources, auxiliary effects of infrastructure of the hinterland, adjusting effects of regional soft power and decisive effects of port location. Through the decision model can obtain three aspects of the path decision evidence: the bigger grey correlation of an industry is, the greater its contribution to the GDP is, so this industry should be developed priority to promote the economic development; the bigger fuzzy evaluation index of an industry is, the better its bearing status is, so the development threaten to regional capacity is small; to every industries, the smaller element's evaluation after defuzzification is, the bigger its constraint to the industry development is, and this element becomes the bottleneck of the development of this industry.
本文首先在文献综述的基础上对区域承载力进行了概念界定,并从集成角度,借助分层结构模型识别了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成影响因素,并在此基础上构建相应的评价指标体系。随后本文引入灰色关联分析法与模糊积分法构建了基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策模型。
最后在算例分析的基础上,本文得出如下结论:区域承载力的各要素对临港产业集成的发展起到不同的作用,包括区域环境的制约作用、区域资源的支撑作用、腹地基础设施的辅助作用、区域软实力的调节作用、港口区位因素的决定性作用。应用基于区域承载力的临港产业集成发展路径决策分析模型可以得到三方面的路径决策依据:某行业的灰色关联度越大,对于区域GDP的贡献越大,为促进经济发展应优先发展这些行业;某行业的模糊评价指数越大,其区域承载力承载状态越佳,优先发展该行业对区域承载力构成的威胁较小;对于每一个行业,解模糊化后的要素评估值越小,该要素对该行业发展的约束就越大,视为发展该行业的瓶颈。
With the development of the world economy, many countries are more and more attention of the development of port-vicinity industry. However, as a kind of resource-intensive industries, port-vicinity industry has formed enormous dependence on the land, marine, coastline and energy in promoting economic growth. But the limitation of resources environmental capacity formed a backlash on the development of port-vicinity industry, the interaction between them objectively promoted the formation of the mechanism between port-vicinity industry and regional carrying capacity. So it's especially important for the analysis of the development path of port-vicinity industry to clarify the mechanism between regional carrying capacity and port-vicinity industry.
Firstly, the article gives the definition of regional carrying capacity on the basis of literature review, and from the integrated point of view, recognizes the influence factors of integrated port-vicinity industry based on the regional carrying capacity recurring to the hierarchy identification model, and based on this constructing the evaluation index system. Then the article introduces gray correlation analysis and fuzzy integral methods and has set up an decision model of development path of integrated port-vicinity industry based on regional carrying capacity.
At last, on the basis of an example analysis, the article conclusion that: various factors of regional carrying capacity play different roles on the development of integrated port-vicinity industry, including the restricting effects of regional environment, supporting effects of regional resources, auxiliary effects of infrastructure of the hinterland, adjusting effects of regional soft power and decisive effects of port location. Through the decision model can obtain three aspects of the path decision evidence: the bigger grey correlation of an industry is, the greater its contribution to the GDP is, so this industry should be developed priority to promote the economic development; the bigger fuzzy evaluation index of an industry is, the better its bearing status is, so the development threaten to regional capacity is small; to every industries, the smaller element's evaluation after defuzzification is, the bigger its constraint to the industry development is, and this element becomes the bottleneck of the development of this industry.
引文
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[32]Peter W.De Langen,Evert-Jan Visser.Collective Action Regimes in Seaport Cluster:the Case of the Lower Mississippi Port Cluster[J].Journal of Transport Geography.2005,(13):173-186.
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[2]高吉喜.可持续发展理论探索--生态承载力理论、方法与应用[M].北京.中国环境科学出版社,2001.
[3]Guevara,J.C.et al.Productivity,Management and Development Problems in the Arid Rangeland Central Mendoza Plains[J].Journal of Arid Environments.1997,35:575-600.
[4]Allan W A.Studies in African Land Usage in Northern Rhodesia,Rhodes Livingstone Papers and No.15[M].Cape Town:Oxford University Press,1949:35-36.
[5]Slesser M,Hounam I.Carrying capacity assessment[M].Report to UNESCO and FAO,1984:72-73.
[6]梅成瑞.土地人口承载量研究的几个问题[J].自然资源学报.1988,(3):1.
[7]李久明.系统动态学方法在土地资源承载能力研究中的应用尝试-以黄淮平原为例[J].自然资源.1989,(4):13-20.
[8]谢庭生.湖南洞庭湖地区的土地资源承载人口能力研究[J].资源科学.1989,(4):16-23.
[9]姚治军等.区域水资源承载力的研究进展及其理论探析[J].水科学进展.2002,(13):111-115
[10]Hrlich,Anne H.Looking for the Ceiling:Estimates of the Earth's Carrying Capacity[J].American Scientist,Research Triangle Park,1996,84(5):494-499.
[11]Harris Jonathan M,et al.Carrying Capacity in Agriculture:Ecological Economics[J].Globe and Regional Issue.1999,129(3):443-461.
[12]施雅风,曲耀光.乌鲁木齐河流域水资源承载力及其合理利用[M].北京.科学出版社,1992.
[13]阮本清,沈晋.区域水资源适度承载能力计算研究[J].土壤侵蚀与水土保持学报.1998,4(3):57-61.
[14]惠泱河,蒋晓辉,黄强等.水资源承载力评价指标体系研究[J].水土保持通报.2000,21(1):30-34.
[15]王栋,史运良,王腊春.浅析太湖流域水资源系统退化与修复对策[J].水资源保护.2003,(6):41-42.
[16]刘吕明,王红瑞.浅析水资源与人口、经济和社会环境的关系[J].自然资源学报.2003,18(5):635-644.
[17]洪阳,叶文虎,可持续环境承载力的量度及其应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境.1998,8(3):54-58.
[18]叶文虎,梅风桥,关伯仁环境承载力理论及其科学意义[J].环境科学研究.1992,(5):108-111.
[19]唐剑武,郭怀成,叶文虎.环境承载力及其在环境规划中的应用[J].中国环境科学.1997,17(1):6-9.
[20]Seidl,I.,Tisdell,C.A.Carrying capacity reconsidered:from Malthus' population theory to cultural carrying capacity[J].Ecological Economics.1999,38,395-408.
[21]余丹林.区域承载力的理论、方法与证实研究--以环渤海地区为例:(博士学位论文).北京:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2000.
[22]韩波,邵波.门槛分析法在区域承载力测算中的应用研究--以海岛承载力研究为例[J].经济地理.1992,(4):15-20.
[23]张治华.生态承载力的理论与实践研究--以北部湾(广西)经济区为例:(硕士学位论文).上海:华东师范大学,2007.
[24]朱燕玲,赵永志,陈鑫.区域承载力的研究进展[J].资源与环境.2007,(27):68
[25]梅多斯著.于树生译.增长的极限[M].北京:商务印书馆,1984:201-210.
[26]Sleeser M.Enhancement of Carrying Capacity Options ECCO[M].The Resource Use Institute.1990:156-170.
[27]韦学勤.港口产业集群培育与发展研究:(硕士学位论文).山东:山东大学,2007.
[28]刘志强.论港口与产业集群:(硕士学位论文).上海:上海海事大学,2005.
[29]Peter W.De Langen,Athanasions A.Pallis.Analysis of the Benefits of Intra-port Competitions[J].Industrial Organization.2005.
[30]Michiel H.Nijdam,Peter W.De Langen.Leader Firms in the Dutch Maritime Cluster[J].ERSA conference papers.2003.
[31]Peter W.De Langen.Trends and Opportunities for the Long-term Development of Rotterdam's Port Complex[J].Coastal Management.2005,(33):215-224.
[32]Peter W.De Langen,Evert-Jan Visser.Collective Action Regimes in Seaport Cluster:the Case of the Lower Mississippi Port Cluster[J].Journal of Transport Geography.2005,(13):173-186.
[33]刘志强,宋炳良.港口与产业集群[J].上海海事大学学报.2004,(12):22-26.
[34]姜海燕.临港产业集聚程度评估指标体系研究:(硕士学位论文).大连:大连理工大学,2005.
[35]顾亚竹.港口产业集群之理论探讨[J].物流科技.2006,(136):115-117.
[36]杨琳琳,许继琴.宁波临港产业集群发展的现状及评述[J].商场现代化.2005,177-178.
[37]吕荣胜,袁艺.港口产业集群对区域经济的带动效应[J]大连海事大学学报(社会科学版).2006,(9):47-50
[38]梁钴悦.天津临港产业集群研究[J].现代商业.2007,(24):227-228.
[39]李南,刘嘉娜.唐山市临港产业集群发展构想与实施路径[J].水运管理.2007,(3):9-14.
[40]文妮佳.加工贸易产业结构的优化与珠三角临港产业集群的发展[J].中国水运.2007,(4):194-196.
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