基于环境因素的全要素生产率和国民收入核算研究
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摘要
追求经济的高速增长是许多国家经济社会发展的目的,但片面以GDP为导向、粗放型的经济增长方式在拉动经济快速发展的同时,也给世界上许多国家带来了经济社会等领域一系列的问题,环境问题就是其中一个日益凸显并开始广泛受世人关注的问题。针对经济发展过程的资源环境代价和资源环境约束问题,通过将环境因素纳入宏观经济的两个代表性指标GDP和全要素生产率的分析框架,本文对区域经济增长的可持续增长问题进行了研究。
绿色GDP是针对传统GDP的不足提出的,其目的是为了测算经济发展过程的环境代价和社会成本,正确评价经济发展所取得的成绩,改变唯GDP至上的发展理念。绿色GDP概念提出以后,虽然国内外学者纷纷对其开展研究和探索,但是到目前为止,国际上还没有统一的、公认的、权威的绿色GDP定义和核算方法。本文对绿色GDP的测算是通过在传统GDP的基础上扣除环境污染造成的经济损失的方法来实现的。以杭州市为实证对象,通过调查研究、实地论证、专题调研等研究手段,分类估算了该区域环境污染造成的治理成本(包括实际治理成本、虚拟治理成本)和环境退化成本(包括水污染造成的人体健康经济损失、水污染造成的农业经济损失以及水污染造成的水资源经济损失)。研究结果表明,仅水环境这一项,杭州市2004年需要扣除的GDP为143792万元,占GDP总量的0.57%,基于水环境的绿色GDP为2501亿元。其中,实际治理成本达到了59802万元,占GDP总量的0.24%,应该投入治理而没有投入治理的社会成本即虚拟治理成本达到了143792万元,占GDP总量的0.57%;由于水污染造成的环境退化成本为138423.2万元,占GDP总量的0.55%,其中水污染对人体居民健康造成的经济损失为52694.0万元,对农业生产造成的经济损失为17694.3万元,对水资源造成的经济损失为68034.9万元。
绿色GDP是从经济总量角度对经济发展与环境之间的关系进行分析研究,若要深一步探讨经济发展的可持续问题,则需要从经济增长方式入手。全要素生产率是判断经济增长方式是集约还是粗放的重要指标。通过普通的距离函数和DEA模型,本文首先测算了浙江省以及长三角地区不考虑环境因素的技术效率及全要素生产率,结果表明,不管是浙江省的11个地市还是长三角地区的16个地市,区域之间的技术效率均存在着较明显差异。在传统全要素生产率的基础上,本文提出了基于环境的全要素生产率概念,通过设计方向性距离函数对包含非期望产出的浙江省及长三角地区的技术效率进行了测算,试图分析环境因素对全要素生产率的影响。本文选取了工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、COD排放量以及SO_2排放量4个污染物作为非期望产出,研究结果表明,污染物排放量少的,其区域技术效率排名会上升,污染物排放量大的,其区域技术效率排名会下降,污染物排放量与效率排名变化之间呈较好的线性关系,相关系数在0.7以上。
近年来,在中国经济高增长中所表现出来的投资驱动型经济发展模式、中国的经济生产率、以及日益加剧的环境污染问题的研究中,虽然在它们各自的领域都得出了相当一致的结论,但还缺乏一个统一完整的将经济增长方式与环境问题结合起来的经济学分析框架。本文以较深入的实证研究为依托,对绿色GDP和基于环境的全要素生产率作了有益的探索,对同类或相关研究有参考借鉴机制,对推进绿色GDP和基于环境的全要素生产率的应用实践有积极的意义。
A high economic growth speed was the aim of most countries' economic and social development. However, companying with the high economic growth speed and extensive economic growth mode, a series of social problems have been spurred out, of which, environment pollution was regarded as the direct product caused by GDP-oriented economic. A lot of researches have been carried out on the relationship between the economic development and environment, and this paper supplied a new view to do the research on the relationship between them, since GDP is an indicate of the economic development speed, and TFP is an indicate of economic development path respectively.
The Green GDP was put forward for the aim to evaluate the economic development performance correctly and overcome the shortcomings of the conventional GDP. Since it was brought out in《SEEA1993》by the United Nation, it has been widely accepted, and a lot of researches have been done on it. However, there was still no authority definition on it. This paper calculated the Green GDP by simply deducted the economic loss of environmental pollution、ecological destruction and resource degradation from the conventional GDP. Hangzhou city was chosen for as a example. The results showed that the rapid economic development would have to pay a heavy external cost. The real investment cost on the wastewater was 598 million yuan, which was 0.24% of GDP in Hangzhou. The investment gap between the amount should be paid and the amount having been paid for water pollution treatment was 1.44 billion RMB, which was 0.57 percentage of GDP in Hangzhou. The degradation cost was 1.38 billion yuan in Hangzhou in 2004 including the damage loss to human health (526.94 million yuan), agriculture (146.36 million yuan) and water resources (680.34 million yuan). The Green GDP based on the water pollution in Hangzhou in 2004 is 250.1 billion yuan.
In order to make it more clear the relationship between the economic development and environment, it was necessary to introduce TFP into the research framework, since TFP was an important criterion to judge whether a certain kind of economic path was sustainable or not.
By distant function and DEA model, this paper calculated the technical efficiency and Malmquist index without considering environment factors in the region of Zhejiang Province and Changsanjiao District. The results showed that the technical efficiency in these two districts were different distinctly among different cities. Based on the traditional Total Factor Productivity, this paper proposed to embed the environmental factor into the TFP evaluation, which means that the TFP should be adjusted by the environment factors to reflect the performance of economic sustainability correctly. In this paper, the directional distance function method was adopted to calculate the Total Factor Productivity considering the environmental factors. And the calculation was done by SAS (9.0) program designed specially.
Four major environment pollutants were chosen in this paper, which were waste water released form industry、waste gas released form industry、COD and SO_2. The results showed that the rank of technical efficiency will be changed effectively when considering environmental factors. For those cities with a high pollution emission, the rank of technical efficiency will be dropped down, while for those with a low emission, the rank will be improved respectively. This result domesticated that the Total Factor Productivity considering environment factor will be more precised to judge the economic development quality than the traditional index.
In these years, the research on the field of economic development and environment were both booming respectively, but the bridge to connect them was short. This paper made a meaningful exploration on the relationship between them, which will promise to help to evaluate the economic development quality more clearly, and will be a good reference for other researchers.
绿色GDP是针对传统GDP的不足提出的,其目的是为了测算经济发展过程的环境代价和社会成本,正确评价经济发展所取得的成绩,改变唯GDP至上的发展理念。绿色GDP概念提出以后,虽然国内外学者纷纷对其开展研究和探索,但是到目前为止,国际上还没有统一的、公认的、权威的绿色GDP定义和核算方法。本文对绿色GDP的测算是通过在传统GDP的基础上扣除环境污染造成的经济损失的方法来实现的。以杭州市为实证对象,通过调查研究、实地论证、专题调研等研究手段,分类估算了该区域环境污染造成的治理成本(包括实际治理成本、虚拟治理成本)和环境退化成本(包括水污染造成的人体健康经济损失、水污染造成的农业经济损失以及水污染造成的水资源经济损失)。研究结果表明,仅水环境这一项,杭州市2004年需要扣除的GDP为143792万元,占GDP总量的0.57%,基于水环境的绿色GDP为2501亿元。其中,实际治理成本达到了59802万元,占GDP总量的0.24%,应该投入治理而没有投入治理的社会成本即虚拟治理成本达到了143792万元,占GDP总量的0.57%;由于水污染造成的环境退化成本为138423.2万元,占GDP总量的0.55%,其中水污染对人体居民健康造成的经济损失为52694.0万元,对农业生产造成的经济损失为17694.3万元,对水资源造成的经济损失为68034.9万元。
绿色GDP是从经济总量角度对经济发展与环境之间的关系进行分析研究,若要深一步探讨经济发展的可持续问题,则需要从经济增长方式入手。全要素生产率是判断经济增长方式是集约还是粗放的重要指标。通过普通的距离函数和DEA模型,本文首先测算了浙江省以及长三角地区不考虑环境因素的技术效率及全要素生产率,结果表明,不管是浙江省的11个地市还是长三角地区的16个地市,区域之间的技术效率均存在着较明显差异。在传统全要素生产率的基础上,本文提出了基于环境的全要素生产率概念,通过设计方向性距离函数对包含非期望产出的浙江省及长三角地区的技术效率进行了测算,试图分析环境因素对全要素生产率的影响。本文选取了工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、COD排放量以及SO_2排放量4个污染物作为非期望产出,研究结果表明,污染物排放量少的,其区域技术效率排名会上升,污染物排放量大的,其区域技术效率排名会下降,污染物排放量与效率排名变化之间呈较好的线性关系,相关系数在0.7以上。
近年来,在中国经济高增长中所表现出来的投资驱动型经济发展模式、中国的经济生产率、以及日益加剧的环境污染问题的研究中,虽然在它们各自的领域都得出了相当一致的结论,但还缺乏一个统一完整的将经济增长方式与环境问题结合起来的经济学分析框架。本文以较深入的实证研究为依托,对绿色GDP和基于环境的全要素生产率作了有益的探索,对同类或相关研究有参考借鉴机制,对推进绿色GDP和基于环境的全要素生产率的应用实践有积极的意义。
A high economic growth speed was the aim of most countries' economic and social development. However, companying with the high economic growth speed and extensive economic growth mode, a series of social problems have been spurred out, of which, environment pollution was regarded as the direct product caused by GDP-oriented economic. A lot of researches have been carried out on the relationship between the economic development and environment, and this paper supplied a new view to do the research on the relationship between them, since GDP is an indicate of the economic development speed, and TFP is an indicate of economic development path respectively.
The Green GDP was put forward for the aim to evaluate the economic development performance correctly and overcome the shortcomings of the conventional GDP. Since it was brought out in《SEEA1993》by the United Nation, it has been widely accepted, and a lot of researches have been done on it. However, there was still no authority definition on it. This paper calculated the Green GDP by simply deducted the economic loss of environmental pollution、ecological destruction and resource degradation from the conventional GDP. Hangzhou city was chosen for as a example. The results showed that the rapid economic development would have to pay a heavy external cost. The real investment cost on the wastewater was 598 million yuan, which was 0.24% of GDP in Hangzhou. The investment gap between the amount should be paid and the amount having been paid for water pollution treatment was 1.44 billion RMB, which was 0.57 percentage of GDP in Hangzhou. The degradation cost was 1.38 billion yuan in Hangzhou in 2004 including the damage loss to human health (526.94 million yuan), agriculture (146.36 million yuan) and water resources (680.34 million yuan). The Green GDP based on the water pollution in Hangzhou in 2004 is 250.1 billion yuan.
In order to make it more clear the relationship between the economic development and environment, it was necessary to introduce TFP into the research framework, since TFP was an important criterion to judge whether a certain kind of economic path was sustainable or not.
By distant function and DEA model, this paper calculated the technical efficiency and Malmquist index without considering environment factors in the region of Zhejiang Province and Changsanjiao District. The results showed that the technical efficiency in these two districts were different distinctly among different cities. Based on the traditional Total Factor Productivity, this paper proposed to embed the environmental factor into the TFP evaluation, which means that the TFP should be adjusted by the environment factors to reflect the performance of economic sustainability correctly. In this paper, the directional distance function method was adopted to calculate the Total Factor Productivity considering the environmental factors. And the calculation was done by SAS (9.0) program designed specially.
Four major environment pollutants were chosen in this paper, which were waste water released form industry、waste gas released form industry、COD and SO_2. The results showed that the rank of technical efficiency will be changed effectively when considering environmental factors. For those cities with a high pollution emission, the rank of technical efficiency will be dropped down, while for those with a low emission, the rank will be improved respectively. This result domesticated that the Total Factor Productivity considering environment factor will be more precised to judge the economic development quality than the traditional index.
In these years, the research on the field of economic development and environment were both booming respectively, but the bridge to connect them was short. This paper made a meaningful exploration on the relationship between them, which will promise to help to evaluate the economic development quality more clearly, and will be a good reference for other researchers.
引文
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