粮食生产潜力预测方法研究
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摘要
粮食生产潜力的研究,对于制定一个国家的作物生产规划、粮食储运、人口控制、合理开发利用农业自然资源以及环境保护等一系列基本国策都具有重要的战略意义和现实意义。传统的基于光热资源角度估算的粮食生产潜力往往高于农业的实际生产水平,且参数众多,如何科学地确定不同潜力层次主要限制因子的有效程度难度较大,其预测结果对粮食生产、安排调运供应和进出口计划以及防灾减灾的指导意义不大。基于此,本研究的主要内容包括以下三个方面:
(1)重新定义了粮食生产潜力的内涵,它是指某一空间单元的土地上,在某一时间内(年或若干年内)种植某一作物的主导品种,在当时生产技术条件和投入情况下,在平均气候年型下的单产。
(2)提出了粮食生产潜力的科技进步驱动力预测理论。
(3)建立了整体建模方法、分段建模方法、逐年回归建模方法、动态n值建模方法、拐点建模方法以及最优化系统建模方法等系列预测方法。通过众多案例的分析和验证,表明提出的理论和方法具有科学性,符合生产实际,能够解决粮食生产潜力预测的问题。多年单产移动平均趋势模型巧妙而有效地将气象因素和人为因素分离开,是预测的理论基石,能处理不同趋势的预测问题。可以预测不同空间尺度下不同作物类型的单产和总产。研究表明:可以使用任何预测单元的历史数据进行验证,并可进行预测。所提出的预测理论和所建立的系统预测方法可以作为我国粮食生产潜力乃至估产的理论基础和方法基础,并有望据此建立国家粮食生产潜力和估产信息技术平台,成为政府、商业和研究者的决策依据和研究工具,并可应用到其他类似系统(具有趋势性变量和波动性变量的系统)的预测,其应用前景十分广泛。
Study on grain potential productivity is important for a country to crop production planning, population controling, natural resources utilization and environmental protection. Traditional potential grain productivity estimated on the basis of light and thermal resources generally is higher than the actual level and requires so many parameters that it is rather difficult to scientifically determine. In addition, the results of prediction provide little guidance for grain production, import and export planning as well as prevention and reduction of disasters. The results are as follow:
(1) The potential grain yield is redefined in this article as yield of a certain crop under multi-year average climate conditions and technology imputs of that time.
(2) Put forward the theory motivating force of science and technology of potential grain productivity.
(3) Prediction methods applicable to different conditions have been set up, such as modeling n value determination method, dynamic n value determination method during year-by-year prediction, prediction method for occurrence of point of inflection in yield tendency, micro tendency rectification method, and macro tendency prediction plus micro tendency rectification method, which are integrated into a systematic prediction method.
The proposed prediction theory and the established systematic prediction method can be applied as the theoretical and methodological foundation for potential grain productivity or even yield estimation in China. They can hopefully help to set up the national technical platform for information of potential grain productivity and yield estimation and become decision-making bases and research tools for government, business and researchers. They can also be applied to the prediction of other similar systems (systems with tendency-oriented variables and fluctuating variables), highly promising for a widespread application.
(1)重新定义了粮食生产潜力的内涵,它是指某一空间单元的土地上,在某一时间内(年或若干年内)种植某一作物的主导品种,在当时生产技术条件和投入情况下,在平均气候年型下的单产。
(2)提出了粮食生产潜力的科技进步驱动力预测理论。
(3)建立了整体建模方法、分段建模方法、逐年回归建模方法、动态n值建模方法、拐点建模方法以及最优化系统建模方法等系列预测方法。通过众多案例的分析和验证,表明提出的理论和方法具有科学性,符合生产实际,能够解决粮食生产潜力预测的问题。多年单产移动平均趋势模型巧妙而有效地将气象因素和人为因素分离开,是预测的理论基石,能处理不同趋势的预测问题。可以预测不同空间尺度下不同作物类型的单产和总产。研究表明:可以使用任何预测单元的历史数据进行验证,并可进行预测。所提出的预测理论和所建立的系统预测方法可以作为我国粮食生产潜力乃至估产的理论基础和方法基础,并有望据此建立国家粮食生产潜力和估产信息技术平台,成为政府、商业和研究者的决策依据和研究工具,并可应用到其他类似系统(具有趋势性变量和波动性变量的系统)的预测,其应用前景十分广泛。
Study on grain potential productivity is important for a country to crop production planning, population controling, natural resources utilization and environmental protection. Traditional potential grain productivity estimated on the basis of light and thermal resources generally is higher than the actual level and requires so many parameters that it is rather difficult to scientifically determine. In addition, the results of prediction provide little guidance for grain production, import and export planning as well as prevention and reduction of disasters. The results are as follow:
(1) The potential grain yield is redefined in this article as yield of a certain crop under multi-year average climate conditions and technology imputs of that time.
(2) Put forward the theory motivating force of science and technology of potential grain productivity.
(3) Prediction methods applicable to different conditions have been set up, such as modeling n value determination method, dynamic n value determination method during year-by-year prediction, prediction method for occurrence of point of inflection in yield tendency, micro tendency rectification method, and macro tendency prediction plus micro tendency rectification method, which are integrated into a systematic prediction method.
The proposed prediction theory and the established systematic prediction method can be applied as the theoretical and methodological foundation for potential grain productivity or even yield estimation in China. They can hopefully help to set up the national technical platform for information of potential grain productivity and yield estimation and become decision-making bases and research tools for government, business and researchers. They can also be applied to the prediction of other similar systems (systems with tendency-oriented variables and fluctuating variables), highly promising for a widespread application.
引文
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