乌江梯级七库中长期发电优化调度研究
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摘要
乌江流域水力资源丰富,是我国十二大水电基地之一,乌江干流现已规划形成上下游共11座水库的梯级联合开发的水电站联合运行模式。梯级水库群的联合调度是未来水库调度的发展趋势,它能够有效缓解我国经济发展与能源需求之间的矛盾。本论文以乌江水电开发公司负责管理的七座水库：洪家渡、东风、索风营、乌江渡、构皮滩、思林、沙沱为研究对象,通过对梯级水库群优化调度数学模型的建立和求解,研究和探讨了乌江梯级水库群联合优化调度的规则,使水库调度理论与生产实际紧密结合,为水电站的实际运行提供参考。本论文的研究内容及取得的研究成果主要包括以下几个方面：
(1)根据乌江流域水库群生产实际情况,结合梯级水库群联合优化调度的理论,建立了乌江梯级水库群发电量最大模型和兼顾保证出力的发电量最大模型,并运用DPSA-POA混合算法、大系统分解协调算法和加速遗传算法对两个模型进行求解。
(2)通过运用发电量最大模型,根据乌江流域水库群1951年5月～2007年4月的历史长系列径流资料,采用DPSA-POA混合算法进行求解,得到乌江梯级水库群长系列优化调度的调节计算结果,并进行了合理性分析,表明该模型可用于指导水库调度。
(3)根据2009年乌江梯级水库群基本资料,对发电量最大模型和兼顾保证出力的发电量最大模型进行调节计算,制定了2009年乌江梯级水库群优化调度方案,该方案与乌江公司的建议发电计划相比,可以显著增加发电效益。
(4)结合多目标决策理论,分析发电量与蓄能量之间关系,建立了洪家渡、构皮滩水库的年末消落水位多目标预测模型；运用乌江梯级长系列优化调度结果,采用逐步回归方法研究多年调节水库的年末消落水位规律,建立了基于统计规律的多年调节水库年末消落水位预测模型。通过对两种模型的长系列模拟调度的检验,表明两种模型是合理、可行的。
(5)通过对水电站调度规则的理论研究,结合乌江梯级水库群长系列优化调度结果,运用逐步回归方法,分别制定了乌江梯级七座水库的优化调度函数,通过长系列的模拟调度计算,结果表明制定的调度规则是可靠的、合理的。
Wujiang river basin has rich hydropower resources, which is one of the twelve large hydropower bases. The eleven reservoirs of combined operating model has been formed in Wujiang river basin. The combined operating of cascade reservoirs is the trend of reservoir operation, which can relieve the conflict between economy development and energy demand of the state. The paper is studied on the seven reservoirs:HongJiadu, Dongfeng, SuoFengyin, WuJiangdu, GouPitan, Silin and Shatuo. The combined optimization operation rules of Wujiang cascade reservoirs have been researched by establishing cascade reservoirs optimal operation model. The rules can be applied in the real operation of the hydropower station. The main research content and results are as follows:
(1) According to the actual situation of Wujiang cascade reservoirs, combined with the theory of cascade reservoirs combined optimal operation, the maximizing energy output and maximizing energy guaranteed output models have been established. And the algorithms of DPSA-POA, LSSDC and Genetic Algorithm are applied to solve the models.
(2) According to the long series runoff data (1951.02-2007.04) of Wujiang cascade reservoirs. The long series cascade optimal operation results has been gotten by using maximizing energy output model and the DPSA-POA algorithm to solve it. Through analysis of the long series results, the universal rules of cascade reservoirs optimal operation have been proposed which is "upstream supplys first, downstream stores first"
(3) According to the basical data of 2009 provided by the Wujiang company, the optimal scheme of Wujiang cascade reservoirs of 2009 have been made by the two models above. The comparing results indicates that:the scheme made by the models are better than the advised scheme. The models results can improve cascade energy output.
(4) Combined the multi-objedtive decision theory, and analyzing the relation between energy output and storage, the year-end waterlevel multi-objedtive forecast model of HongJiadu and GouPitan have been proposed. According to the long series optimal operaton results, the year-end waterlevel forecast model of HongJiadu and GouPitan based on statistical law have been established used by the stepwise regression. The long series simulating operation of the two models have been made. The test results show that the annual average enery output has been improved and the two models are reasonable and feasible.
(5) Through the theoretical research of hydropower station operation rules, and combined the long series operating results and stepwise regression method, the optimal operation functions of the Wujiang cascade reservoirs have been made separately. And the long series simulating operation results indicate that the functions are reliable and reasonable.
(1)根据乌江流域水库群生产实际情况,结合梯级水库群联合优化调度的理论,建立了乌江梯级水库群发电量最大模型和兼顾保证出力的发电量最大模型,并运用DPSA-POA混合算法、大系统分解协调算法和加速遗传算法对两个模型进行求解。
(2)通过运用发电量最大模型,根据乌江流域水库群1951年5月～2007年4月的历史长系列径流资料,采用DPSA-POA混合算法进行求解,得到乌江梯级水库群长系列优化调度的调节计算结果,并进行了合理性分析,表明该模型可用于指导水库调度。
(3)根据2009年乌江梯级水库群基本资料,对发电量最大模型和兼顾保证出力的发电量最大模型进行调节计算,制定了2009年乌江梯级水库群优化调度方案,该方案与乌江公司的建议发电计划相比,可以显著增加发电效益。
(4)结合多目标决策理论,分析发电量与蓄能量之间关系,建立了洪家渡、构皮滩水库的年末消落水位多目标预测模型；运用乌江梯级长系列优化调度结果,采用逐步回归方法研究多年调节水库的年末消落水位规律,建立了基于统计规律的多年调节水库年末消落水位预测模型。通过对两种模型的长系列模拟调度的检验,表明两种模型是合理、可行的。
(5)通过对水电站调度规则的理论研究,结合乌江梯级水库群长系列优化调度结果,运用逐步回归方法,分别制定了乌江梯级七座水库的优化调度函数,通过长系列的模拟调度计算,结果表明制定的调度规则是可靠的、合理的。
Wujiang river basin has rich hydropower resources, which is one of the twelve large hydropower bases. The eleven reservoirs of combined operating model has been formed in Wujiang river basin. The combined operating of cascade reservoirs is the trend of reservoir operation, which can relieve the conflict between economy development and energy demand of the state. The paper is studied on the seven reservoirs:HongJiadu, Dongfeng, SuoFengyin, WuJiangdu, GouPitan, Silin and Shatuo. The combined optimization operation rules of Wujiang cascade reservoirs have been researched by establishing cascade reservoirs optimal operation model. The rules can be applied in the real operation of the hydropower station. The main research content and results are as follows:
(1) According to the actual situation of Wujiang cascade reservoirs, combined with the theory of cascade reservoirs combined optimal operation, the maximizing energy output and maximizing energy guaranteed output models have been established. And the algorithms of DPSA-POA, LSSDC and Genetic Algorithm are applied to solve the models.
(2) According to the long series runoff data (1951.02-2007.04) of Wujiang cascade reservoirs. The long series cascade optimal operation results has been gotten by using maximizing energy output model and the DPSA-POA algorithm to solve it. Through analysis of the long series results, the universal rules of cascade reservoirs optimal operation have been proposed which is "upstream supplys first, downstream stores first"
(3) According to the basical data of 2009 provided by the Wujiang company, the optimal scheme of Wujiang cascade reservoirs of 2009 have been made by the two models above. The comparing results indicates that:the scheme made by the models are better than the advised scheme. The models results can improve cascade energy output.
(4) Combined the multi-objedtive decision theory, and analyzing the relation between energy output and storage, the year-end waterlevel multi-objedtive forecast model of HongJiadu and GouPitan have been proposed. According to the long series optimal operaton results, the year-end waterlevel forecast model of HongJiadu and GouPitan based on statistical law have been established used by the stepwise regression. The long series simulating operation of the two models have been made. The test results show that the annual average enery output has been improved and the two models are reasonable and feasible.
(5) Through the theoretical research of hydropower station operation rules, and combined the long series operating results and stepwise regression method, the optimal operation functions of the Wujiang cascade reservoirs have been made separately. And the long series simulating operation results indicate that the functions are reliable and reasonable.
引文
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