公路工程项目施工中主体行为风险评估及控制研究
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摘要
近20年来,我国的公路建设得到了飞速发展,对国民经济的发展起到了重要的推动作用。然而随着公路工程项目施工环境和组织形式的多样性、复杂性演变趋势,在项目风险事件中隐含的主体行为风险越来越突出,甚至成为了施工过程中的主导风险。因此,对公路工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险所包含的风险因素进行分析,对主体行为风险的形成机理深入研究和探讨,很有现实的必要。
本文结合主体行为风险研究的发展现状和相关研究成果,从公路工程项目利益的角度出发,提出了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的定义,对公路工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险的概念、特征和分类进行了分析;继而从主体追求自身利益最大化、主体掌握的信息不完备、主体自身能力不足三个角度对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的形成机理进行了探讨,进而从主体行为的角度对承包商、业主代表、监理单位、材料设备供应商和政府部门的行为进行了分析,阐述了我国公路工程项目施工建设过程中存在的主体行为风险因素,建立了一套公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估的指标体系,其中包括6个二级指标和32个三级指标,二级指标分别为:承包商行为风险、业主代表行为风险、监理单位行为风险、材料设备供应商行为风险、政府部门行为风险和设计单位行为风险;再根据主体行为风险的特征,采用AHP-灰色聚类方法建立了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估模型,并利用该模型对ZH高速公路项目的施工实际进行了实证分析,验证了本文构建的评估指标体系的可行性和有效性,最后给出了防范公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险发生的措施和建议。
文章对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险形成机理的探讨、对施工阶段主体行为风险因素的分析和指标体系的构建、对主体行为风险进行防范的措施和建议,丰富了公路工程项目施工风险管理理论,对降低我国公路工程项目施工具有一定的借鉴作用。
In recent twenty years,China's road construction has made rapid development,it played an important role for the development of the national economy's promotion. However, along with the highway engineering project construction environment and organizational form evolution trend of the diversity and complexity, the subjects’behavior risk implicit in the project risk events is becoming more and more prominent, it even becomes to be the dominant risk . According to this , analyzing the risk factors contained in subjects’behavior risk and researching the formation mechanisms of subjects’behavior risk may have strong necessity in fact.
Based on the highway engineering project profit , this paper combined with the current development status and related research on the subjects’behavior risk, we proposed the definition of highway construction phase of subjects’behavior risk and analyzed its conception, features and category. Then based on the angles of pursuing his own benefit maximization, subjects’information incomplete, subjects’ability is insufficient, highway project construction phase of the subjects’risk formation mechanism was discussed, and from the angles of the subject behavior, the owner's representative, the contractor supervision, material suppliers and government behavior is analyzed, and elaborated risk factors on Chinese road project construction process. From this we established a set of highway project construction phase subjects' behavior risk evaluation index system, there are six secondary indexes and 32 third grade indexes in it . The secondary indexes contain contractor behavior risk, the owner's representative behavior risk, supervision units behavior risk, material supplier behavior risk, government departments behavior risk and the design units behavior risk. According to the characteristics of subjects’behavior risk, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering evaluation model and combining with ZHANG-HUA highway project construction practical example analysis, we get the measures and suggestion against the subjects’behavior risk happens on the highway engineering project construction phase. This paper verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model and index system.
The discussion of the formation mechanism of subjects’behavior risk, the construction of the subjects’behavior risk and the analyzing of the risk factors, the measures and suggestion of preventing subjects’behavior risk, enriched the construction of highway project risk management theory. It has certain reference function to reduce the risk of highway project construction.
本文结合主体行为风险研究的发展现状和相关研究成果,从公路工程项目利益的角度出发,提出了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的定义,对公路工程项目施工阶段的主体行为风险的概念、特征和分类进行了分析;继而从主体追求自身利益最大化、主体掌握的信息不完备、主体自身能力不足三个角度对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险的形成机理进行了探讨,进而从主体行为的角度对承包商、业主代表、监理单位、材料设备供应商和政府部门的行为进行了分析,阐述了我国公路工程项目施工建设过程中存在的主体行为风险因素,建立了一套公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估的指标体系,其中包括6个二级指标和32个三级指标,二级指标分别为:承包商行为风险、业主代表行为风险、监理单位行为风险、材料设备供应商行为风险、政府部门行为风险和设计单位行为风险;再根据主体行为风险的特征,采用AHP-灰色聚类方法建立了公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险评估模型,并利用该模型对ZH高速公路项目的施工实际进行了实证分析,验证了本文构建的评估指标体系的可行性和有效性,最后给出了防范公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险发生的措施和建议。
文章对公路工程项目施工阶段主体行为风险形成机理的探讨、对施工阶段主体行为风险因素的分析和指标体系的构建、对主体行为风险进行防范的措施和建议,丰富了公路工程项目施工风险管理理论,对降低我国公路工程项目施工具有一定的借鉴作用。
In recent twenty years,China's road construction has made rapid development,it played an important role for the development of the national economy's promotion. However, along with the highway engineering project construction environment and organizational form evolution trend of the diversity and complexity, the subjects’behavior risk implicit in the project risk events is becoming more and more prominent, it even becomes to be the dominant risk . According to this , analyzing the risk factors contained in subjects’behavior risk and researching the formation mechanisms of subjects’behavior risk may have strong necessity in fact.
Based on the highway engineering project profit , this paper combined with the current development status and related research on the subjects’behavior risk, we proposed the definition of highway construction phase of subjects’behavior risk and analyzed its conception, features and category. Then based on the angles of pursuing his own benefit maximization, subjects’information incomplete, subjects’ability is insufficient, highway project construction phase of the subjects’risk formation mechanism was discussed, and from the angles of the subject behavior, the owner's representative, the contractor supervision, material suppliers and government behavior is analyzed, and elaborated risk factors on Chinese road project construction process. From this we established a set of highway project construction phase subjects' behavior risk evaluation index system, there are six secondary indexes and 32 third grade indexes in it . The secondary indexes contain contractor behavior risk, the owner's representative behavior risk, supervision units behavior risk, material supplier behavior risk, government departments behavior risk and the design units behavior risk. According to the characteristics of subjects’behavior risk, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey clustering evaluation model and combining with ZHANG-HUA highway project construction practical example analysis, we get the measures and suggestion against the subjects’behavior risk happens on the highway engineering project construction phase. This paper verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the evaluation model and index system.
The discussion of the formation mechanism of subjects’behavior risk, the construction of the subjects’behavior risk and the analyzing of the risk factors, the measures and suggestion of preventing subjects’behavior risk, enriched the construction of highway project risk management theory. It has certain reference function to reduce the risk of highway project construction.
引文
[1]罗吉·弗兰根,乔治·诺曼.工程建设风险管理.北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2000,103-105
[2] Al-Bahar. J F . Systematic risk management approach for construction projects.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):49-55
[3] Shen L Y,Wu G W,Ng C.S K.Risk assessment for construction joint ventures in China.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2001,152(1):76-81
[4] Walker A. Project Management in Construction.Blackwell Science,2002,46-123
[5] Baker. S,Ponniah D,Smith. S.Risk response techniques employed currently for major projects.Construction Management and Economics,1997:205-213
[6] Ward, S.C,Chapman. C.B.Project Risk Management:Processes,Techniques and Insights.John Wiley and Sons,1997:25-32
[7] Thompson. P,Perry. J.Engineering construction risks: A guide to project risk analysis and risk management.Thomas Telford,1992:52-53
[8] Rahman M.M , Kumaraswamy M.M. . Joint risk management through transactionally efficient relational contracting.Construction Management and Economics,2002,45 (20):45-54
[9] Ozdoganm I.R.,Birgonul M.T.A decision support framework for project sponsors in the planning stage of build-operate-transfer projects.Construction Management and Economics,2000,(18):343-353
[10] John Raftery.项目管理风险分析.北京:机械工业出版社,2003, 45-54
[11]周士富.经济管理中的决策方法.经济管理,1980,21 (9):13-16
[12]姜青舫.风险度量原理.上海:同济大学出版社,2000,35-41
[13]卢有杰.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2001,36-39
[14]卢家仪,卢有杰.项目融资.北京:清华大学出版社,2002,45-46
[15]徐鼎.项目建设期道德风险的博弈分析研究.中国软科学,1999,28(12):81-85
[16]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003,35-36
[17]杨建平.重大工程项目风险管理研究:[北京交通大学博士学位论文].北京:国家图书馆,1996,23-35
[18]宋明哲.现代风险管理.台湾:五南出版公司,2001,15-18
[19]王卓甫.工程项目管理风险及其应对.北京:中国水利出版社,2010,41-13
[20]马锋,索清辉.效用理论在工程建设风险管理决策中的应用.四川建筑,2003,2(7):85-86
[21]杨宝君.国际工程项目风险管理应研究的几个问题.技术经济,2003,3(12):47-48
[22] Cherns.A , Bryant.D.T . Studying the client’s role in construction management.Construction Management and economics,1984,(2):177-184
[23] Liu A.M.M.,Walker A.Evaluation of Project Outcomes. Construction Management and Economics,1998,16(2):209-219
[24] Naylor J,Pritchard R.D,Ilgen D.R.A theory of behaviour in organisations.NY Academic Press,1980,45-49
[25]陈赟,聂波.高速公路经营主体行为风险指标体系的构建.企业技术开发,2005,12(6):99-101.
[26] Kjell Hausken. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Game Theory. Risk Analysis, 2002(1):17-27.
[27] Schoemaker, P. H. Determinants of Risk-Taking: Behavioral and Economic Views. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1993(6): 49-73.
[28] Pate-Cornell, M. E., Lakats, L. M., Murphy, et al. Anesthesia Patient Risk: A Quantitative Approach to Organizational Factors and Risk Management Options. Risk Analysis, 1997,12(4):511-523.
[29] Harsanyi J C.Utilities,preferences and substantive goods.The United Nations University,1992,16-19
[30] Okamoto K.Introduction to risk and psychology.Saiensu,1992,61-63
[31] Bottelberghs PH.Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands.Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71(13):59-84
[32]张水波,何伯森.工程项目合同双方风险分担问题的探讨.天津大学学报(社会科学版),2003,5 (3 ):257-261
[33]邵国霞,曹政国.公路工程项目施工阶段承包商风险综览.四川建筑,2005,12(6):67-69
[34]杨成忠,王淑芳.公路建设项目承包商的风险管理探讨.中南公路工程,2004,12(12):16-121
[35]吕志勇.浅谈公路工程项目投资的风险管理.山东财政学院学报,2004,12(6):78-82
[36]王长在,兰照满,张志强.公路工程项目投资控制与风险管理,内蒙古科技与经济,2005,4(4):31-35
[37]曹玉明.浅谈公路施工企业经营风险与风险防范.经济问题,2002,7(7):15-20
[38] A.H.Mowbray , Morgenstern O . Theory of games and economic behavior.Princeton:NJ Princeton University Press,1947,67-70
[39] March. Savage L.J.The foundations of statistics.NY: Wiley,1954,23-26
[40] Edwards W.Behavioral decision theory.Annual Review of Psychology,1961,12(12):473-498
[41] Luce R.D,Weber E.U.An axiomatic theory of conjoint expected risk.Journal of Mathematical Psychology,1986,10(30):188-205
[42] Mellers B.A,Chang S.Representations of risk judgments.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1994,6(57):167-184
[43]刘单复.风险决策心理因素的理论综述.应用心理学,1994,9(2):25-29
[44]马艳.风险活动的内在激励与动力是追求风险增益.上海社会科学院学术季刊,2002,1(1):41-46
[45]肖平.工程中的利益冲突与道德选择.道德与文明,2000,4(4):26-29
[46]张襄松,刘三阳.互补支持向量机.计算机科学,2010,15(2):41-46
[47]邓聚龙.灰色预测基本方法.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987,72-80
[48]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社.2004:96-109
[49]李源,王鹏华.基于三角白化函数的信息化炮兵旅作战效能灰色评估.舰船电子对抗,2008,12(12):41-43
[50]刘文光,李德月,李松辉.基于三角白化权函数的混凝土桥梁耐久性评估.公路交通科技,2008,1(01):139-143
[2] Al-Bahar. J F . Systematic risk management approach for construction projects.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,1990,116(3):49-55
[3] Shen L Y,Wu G W,Ng C.S K.Risk assessment for construction joint ventures in China.Journal of Construction Engineering and Management,2001,152(1):76-81
[4] Walker A. Project Management in Construction.Blackwell Science,2002,46-123
[5] Baker. S,Ponniah D,Smith. S.Risk response techniques employed currently for major projects.Construction Management and Economics,1997:205-213
[6] Ward, S.C,Chapman. C.B.Project Risk Management:Processes,Techniques and Insights.John Wiley and Sons,1997:25-32
[7] Thompson. P,Perry. J.Engineering construction risks: A guide to project risk analysis and risk management.Thomas Telford,1992:52-53
[8] Rahman M.M , Kumaraswamy M.M. . Joint risk management through transactionally efficient relational contracting.Construction Management and Economics,2002,45 (20):45-54
[9] Ozdoganm I.R.,Birgonul M.T.A decision support framework for project sponsors in the planning stage of build-operate-transfer projects.Construction Management and Economics,2000,(18):343-353
[10] John Raftery.项目管理风险分析.北京:机械工业出版社,2003, 45-54
[11]周士富.经济管理中的决策方法.经济管理,1980,21 (9):13-16
[12]姜青舫.风险度量原理.上海:同济大学出版社,2000,35-41
[13]卢有杰.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,2001,36-39
[14]卢家仪,卢有杰.项目融资.北京:清华大学出版社,2002,45-46
[15]徐鼎.项目建设期道德风险的博弈分析研究.中国软科学,1999,28(12):81-85
[16]王卓甫.工程项目风险管理.北京:中国水利水电出版社,2003,35-36
[17]杨建平.重大工程项目风险管理研究:[北京交通大学博士学位论文].北京:国家图书馆,1996,23-35
[18]宋明哲.现代风险管理.台湾:五南出版公司,2001,15-18
[19]王卓甫.工程项目管理风险及其应对.北京:中国水利出版社,2010,41-13
[20]马锋,索清辉.效用理论在工程建设风险管理决策中的应用.四川建筑,2003,2(7):85-86
[21]杨宝君.国际工程项目风险管理应研究的几个问题.技术经济,2003,3(12):47-48
[22] Cherns.A , Bryant.D.T . Studying the client’s role in construction management.Construction Management and economics,1984,(2):177-184
[23] Liu A.M.M.,Walker A.Evaluation of Project Outcomes. Construction Management and Economics,1998,16(2):209-219
[24] Naylor J,Pritchard R.D,Ilgen D.R.A theory of behaviour in organisations.NY Academic Press,1980,45-49
[25]陈赟,聂波.高速公路经营主体行为风险指标体系的构建.企业技术开发,2005,12(6):99-101.
[26] Kjell Hausken. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Game Theory. Risk Analysis, 2002(1):17-27.
[27] Schoemaker, P. H. Determinants of Risk-Taking: Behavioral and Economic Views. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1993(6): 49-73.
[28] Pate-Cornell, M. E., Lakats, L. M., Murphy, et al. Anesthesia Patient Risk: A Quantitative Approach to Organizational Factors and Risk Management Options. Risk Analysis, 1997,12(4):511-523.
[29] Harsanyi J C.Utilities,preferences and substantive goods.The United Nations University,1992,16-19
[30] Okamoto K.Introduction to risk and psychology.Saiensu,1992,61-63
[31] Bottelberghs PH.Risk analysis and safety policy developments in the Netherlands.Journal of Hazardous Materials,2000,71(13):59-84
[32]张水波,何伯森.工程项目合同双方风险分担问题的探讨.天津大学学报(社会科学版),2003,5 (3 ):257-261
[33]邵国霞,曹政国.公路工程项目施工阶段承包商风险综览.四川建筑,2005,12(6):67-69
[34]杨成忠,王淑芳.公路建设项目承包商的风险管理探讨.中南公路工程,2004,12(12):16-121
[35]吕志勇.浅谈公路工程项目投资的风险管理.山东财政学院学报,2004,12(6):78-82
[36]王长在,兰照满,张志强.公路工程项目投资控制与风险管理,内蒙古科技与经济,2005,4(4):31-35
[37]曹玉明.浅谈公路施工企业经营风险与风险防范.经济问题,2002,7(7):15-20
[38] A.H.Mowbray , Morgenstern O . Theory of games and economic behavior.Princeton:NJ Princeton University Press,1947,67-70
[39] March. Savage L.J.The foundations of statistics.NY: Wiley,1954,23-26
[40] Edwards W.Behavioral decision theory.Annual Review of Psychology,1961,12(12):473-498
[41] Luce R.D,Weber E.U.An axiomatic theory of conjoint expected risk.Journal of Mathematical Psychology,1986,10(30):188-205
[42] Mellers B.A,Chang S.Representations of risk judgments.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,1994,6(57):167-184
[43]刘单复.风险决策心理因素的理论综述.应用心理学,1994,9(2):25-29
[44]马艳.风险活动的内在激励与动力是追求风险增益.上海社会科学院学术季刊,2002,1(1):41-46
[45]肖平.工程中的利益冲突与道德选择.道德与文明,2000,4(4):26-29
[46]张襄松,刘三阳.互补支持向量机.计算机科学,2010,15(2):41-46
[47]邓聚龙.灰色预测基本方法.武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1987,72-80
[48]刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕等.灰色系统理论及其应用.北京:科学出版社.2004:96-109
[49]李源,王鹏华.基于三角白化函数的信息化炮兵旅作战效能灰色评估.舰船电子对抗,2008,12(12):41-43
[50]刘文光,李德月,李松辉.基于三角白化权函数的混凝土桥梁耐久性评估.公路交通科技,2008,1(01):139-143