上海市土地价格及其影响因子分析
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摘要
土地价格是地块土地的基本属性,受多种社会经济因素影响。如何定量的去分析土地价格和影响价格的各因素之间的关系,是本文讨论的重点内容。
本文分为五章,第一、二章阐述了研究意义、相关研究及理论基础等；第三章通过一系列步骤对采集的样本数据进行预处理,计算样本地价,修正其到具备同一的内涵,并进行统一性检验。第四章是本文的重点,在确定影响土地价格的因子以后,通过因子的信度分析,证明了研究所选用的因子数据样本是稳定的,具有总体样本的特征值,可以代表总体样本；因子的同质性分析,针对各种用地类型,通过T检验,分别剔除同质性因子；最后通过主成分分析法,建立了三种用地类型土地价格的多元回归方程,并对回归方程进行分析说明；第五章对全文做一个概括性的说明,阐述研究的结论。
本文通过多元回归方程分析方法,得出的结论认为,对于不同的用地类型,地价影响因子对其影响程度是不同的。本文得到的定量分析地价和影响因子关系的结果,一方面非常明确的指出了哪些因子影响不同的用地类型,影响程度多少,另一方面,又简化了因子,为实际的基准地价工作提供了科学的依据。
上海市的土地利用又很好的佐证了区位论理论。在商业办公方面,商业的布局依照的主要是区位论理论,把利润争取最大化是其追求的目标。在商品住宅方面,住宅的选择也是依照区位论理论的,而使居民最大化的满意是其追求的目标。在工业(仓储)方面,把成本降到最低是其追求的,近年来,上海的工业(仓储)用地逐渐向郊区转移。
本研究为上海市政府相关部门进行合理的城市规划修编和市政项目规划建设、政府相关部门对土地用途的合理安排和土地利用强度的确定、对提高上海市土地利用效益等提供了科学的指导依据,更进一步,本文所研究的系列数学方法可以作为参考,直接应用于城市定级估价的实际操作中,有利于缩短土地等级评定和估价的时间,进而提高工作效率,还能提高城市土地价格的实效性,在理论上、学术和实践上均有积极意义。
Land value is the basic properties of the land, which subject to a variety of socio-economic factors. How to analyze the quantitative effects of land value and the price relationship between the factors, the key elements was discussed in paper.
The paper is divided into five chapters, the first and second chapter describes the research significance, relevant research and basis of theory; In the third chapter According to a series of steps to pretreat collected data sample; The next chapter, combining the land level of Shanghai, The land income was obtained in which calculate the land value, using the commonly used exponential model and average model in the fifth chapter which is the focus of this article, after determining the factors affecting land value, through factor analysis, the data sample that the paper selected is stable, with the general characteristics of the sample, and also can represent the overall sample; In factor analysis of homogeneity, through the T-test, for a variety of land types, then delete homogeneity factors; Finally, according to principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis, three types of land use regression equation of land value were set up, and explain it.
In this paper, multiple regression analysis, concluded that the land for different types of impact factor on land value are different. Quantitative analysis obtained in this study the relationship between land value and factors affecting the results, on the one hand pointed out clearly which factors affect different types of land, how much the influence is, on the other hand, it simplifies the factor, the actual premium to provide a scientific basis based.
The land use in Shanghai indicate that the location theory. In the commercial, business is mainly in accordance with the layout of the location theory, to maximize profits of their goal. According to the theory, commodity housing, the choice of residential location is also maximize satisfaction of its goal the. About industry, the lowest cost to its pursuit, in recent years, Shanghai's industrial (warehouse) land shift to the suburbs gradually.
The paper is reasonably relevant government departments in Shanghai urban planning revision and municipal planning and construction of the project, relevant government departments to rationalize land-use and its intensity that determined to improve the effectiveness of it, Shanghai has provided scientific guidance basis, further, a series of mathematical methods of land evaluation in the paper can be used as reference, directly applied to grading and evaluating the land value, helping to shorten the time in land valuation, and improving work efficiency, but also raise the effectiveness land value, not only in theory, but also in academic and practice aspect.
本文分为五章,第一、二章阐述了研究意义、相关研究及理论基础等；第三章通过一系列步骤对采集的样本数据进行预处理,计算样本地价,修正其到具备同一的内涵,并进行统一性检验。第四章是本文的重点,在确定影响土地价格的因子以后,通过因子的信度分析,证明了研究所选用的因子数据样本是稳定的,具有总体样本的特征值,可以代表总体样本；因子的同质性分析,针对各种用地类型,通过T检验,分别剔除同质性因子；最后通过主成分分析法,建立了三种用地类型土地价格的多元回归方程,并对回归方程进行分析说明；第五章对全文做一个概括性的说明,阐述研究的结论。
本文通过多元回归方程分析方法,得出的结论认为,对于不同的用地类型,地价影响因子对其影响程度是不同的。本文得到的定量分析地价和影响因子关系的结果,一方面非常明确的指出了哪些因子影响不同的用地类型,影响程度多少,另一方面,又简化了因子,为实际的基准地价工作提供了科学的依据。
上海市的土地利用又很好的佐证了区位论理论。在商业办公方面,商业的布局依照的主要是区位论理论,把利润争取最大化是其追求的目标。在商品住宅方面,住宅的选择也是依照区位论理论的,而使居民最大化的满意是其追求的目标。在工业(仓储)方面,把成本降到最低是其追求的,近年来,上海的工业(仓储)用地逐渐向郊区转移。
本研究为上海市政府相关部门进行合理的城市规划修编和市政项目规划建设、政府相关部门对土地用途的合理安排和土地利用强度的确定、对提高上海市土地利用效益等提供了科学的指导依据,更进一步,本文所研究的系列数学方法可以作为参考,直接应用于城市定级估价的实际操作中,有利于缩短土地等级评定和估价的时间,进而提高工作效率,还能提高城市土地价格的实效性,在理论上、学术和实践上均有积极意义。
Land value is the basic properties of the land, which subject to a variety of socio-economic factors. How to analyze the quantitative effects of land value and the price relationship between the factors, the key elements was discussed in paper.
The paper is divided into five chapters, the first and second chapter describes the research significance, relevant research and basis of theory; In the third chapter According to a series of steps to pretreat collected data sample; The next chapter, combining the land level of Shanghai, The land income was obtained in which calculate the land value, using the commonly used exponential model and average model in the fifth chapter which is the focus of this article, after determining the factors affecting land value, through factor analysis, the data sample that the paper selected is stable, with the general characteristics of the sample, and also can represent the overall sample; In factor analysis of homogeneity, through the T-test, for a variety of land types, then delete homogeneity factors; Finally, according to principal component analysis and stepwise regression analysis, three types of land use regression equation of land value were set up, and explain it.
In this paper, multiple regression analysis, concluded that the land for different types of impact factor on land value are different. Quantitative analysis obtained in this study the relationship between land value and factors affecting the results, on the one hand pointed out clearly which factors affect different types of land, how much the influence is, on the other hand, it simplifies the factor, the actual premium to provide a scientific basis based.
The land use in Shanghai indicate that the location theory. In the commercial, business is mainly in accordance with the layout of the location theory, to maximize profits of their goal. According to the theory, commodity housing, the choice of residential location is also maximize satisfaction of its goal the. About industry, the lowest cost to its pursuit, in recent years, Shanghai's industrial (warehouse) land shift to the suburbs gradually.
The paper is reasonably relevant government departments in Shanghai urban planning revision and municipal planning and construction of the project, relevant government departments to rationalize land-use and its intensity that determined to improve the effectiveness of it, Shanghai has provided scientific guidance basis, further, a series of mathematical methods of land evaluation in the paper can be used as reference, directly applied to grading and evaluating the land value, helping to shorten the time in land valuation, and improving work efficiency, but also raise the effectiveness land value, not only in theory, but also in academic and practice aspect.
引文
[1]Brigham, E. F. The determinants of residential land values [J].1965,41(4): 318-326
[2]W. Alonso. A Theory of Urban Land Market. Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association[J],1960,6:148-156.
[3]H. Brodsky. Residential Land and Improvement Values in a Central City. Land Economies[J] 1970,46:228-246.
[4]H. A. Clonts. Jr. Influence of Urbanization on Land Values at the Urban Periphery. Land Economies 1970,46:489-497.
[5]P. F. Colwell and C. F. Sirmans. Area, Time, Centrality and the Value of Urban Land[J]. Land Economics 1978,54:514-519.
[6]Alonso W. Location and land use[M]. University Press, Cambridge Mass,1964.
[7]Muth R E. Cities and Housing[M]. Chicago University Press,1969.
[8]Diamond D B Jr. The Relationship Between Amenities and Urban Land Prices. Land Economics[J],1980,56 (1):21-27.
[9]T. M. Crone. Elements of an Economic Justification for Municipal Zoning. Journal of Urban Economics[J],1983,14:169-178,1983.
[10]D. L. Chicoine. Farm land Values at Urban Fringe:An Analysis of Sale Prices. Land Economics[J],1981,57(3).
[11]Anselin. The Future of Spatial Analysis in the Social Sciences. Geographic Information Sciences[J],1999,5:67-76.
[12]M.Atef Sharkawy. Housing segmentation in developing countries in transition:a recent case study of residential development in Bangkok. Journal of Real Estate Literature1998,6:29-42
[13]Martin Hoesli. three new real estate price indices for Geneva. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics1997,15:93-100
[14]毕宝德主编.土地经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2006
[15]王天义主编.马克思主义经济学教程[M].中共中央党校出版社,2006
[16]高鸿业主编.西方经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2007
[17]刘卫东等.城市地价评估理论探索与实践[M].科学出版社,2008
[18]李何超主编.城市土地定级与基准地价评估实证研究[M].科学出版社,2009
[19]杜德斌等.影响上海市地价空间分布的区位因子[J].地理学报1997(5)
[20]张波等.济南市土地资产评估结果比较分析[J].山东大学学报,2001(3)
[21]李小波等.河北省城镇土地基准地价结构比率分析.地理学与国土研究[J].1998(2)
[22]王庆改等.城镇基准地价结构分析.山东师大学报[J].2008(2)
[23]项国民等.城镇土地分等估价法析议及应用.宁波大学学报[J].1994(2)
[24]吴哲宇等.基于Kriging技术的城市基准地价评估研究.经济地理[J].2001(9)
[25]宗跃光等.空间插值法在地价梯度分析中的应用——以北京住宅用地为例.房地产评估[J].2003(11)
[26]陈淮.怎样用市场看地价.中国土地[J].2001(12)：26-28
[27]单胜道等.外部地价论.浙江大学学报[J],2000,30(3)：156-160
[28]陈思源等.GIS空间分析支持下的城市地价分布研究.南京农业大学学报[J],2005,28(3)：119-112
[29]陈浮等.城市地价分布图式的地统计学分析.南京大学学报[J],2002(1)
[30]单卫东等.区域中心地价的空间扩散研究.经济地理[J],1997,17(1)：42-45
[31]杜小娅等.南京市区地价空间分布及影响因素分析.国土资源遥感[J],2004(2)
[32]杜忠潮等.咸阳市城区基准地价空间分布和区位因子分析.咸阳师范学院学报[J],2002
[33]蒋芳等.基于GIS的地价空间分布规律研究——以北京市住宅地价为例.经济地理[J],2005
[34]况伟大.我国主要的土地价值及其述评.中外房地产导报,2001(11)：18-19
[35]李玲等.都市地价空间分析方法及其应用.资源科学,2003,25(4)：86-92
[36]张所地等.城市土地定级估价综合模型研究.中国土地科学[J].1998,12(5)
[2]W. Alonso. A Theory of Urban Land Market. Papers and Proceedings of the Regional Science Association[J],1960,6:148-156.
[3]H. Brodsky. Residential Land and Improvement Values in a Central City. Land Economies[J] 1970,46:228-246.
[4]H. A. Clonts. Jr. Influence of Urbanization on Land Values at the Urban Periphery. Land Economies 1970,46:489-497.
[5]P. F. Colwell and C. F. Sirmans. Area, Time, Centrality and the Value of Urban Land[J]. Land Economics 1978,54:514-519.
[6]Alonso W. Location and land use[M]. University Press, Cambridge Mass,1964.
[7]Muth R E. Cities and Housing[M]. Chicago University Press,1969.
[8]Diamond D B Jr. The Relationship Between Amenities and Urban Land Prices. Land Economics[J],1980,56 (1):21-27.
[9]T. M. Crone. Elements of an Economic Justification for Municipal Zoning. Journal of Urban Economics[J],1983,14:169-178,1983.
[10]D. L. Chicoine. Farm land Values at Urban Fringe:An Analysis of Sale Prices. Land Economics[J],1981,57(3).
[11]Anselin. The Future of Spatial Analysis in the Social Sciences. Geographic Information Sciences[J],1999,5:67-76.
[12]M.Atef Sharkawy. Housing segmentation in developing countries in transition:a recent case study of residential development in Bangkok. Journal of Real Estate Literature1998,6:29-42
[13]Martin Hoesli. three new real estate price indices for Geneva. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics1997,15:93-100
[14]毕宝德主编.土地经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2006
[15]王天义主编.马克思主义经济学教程[M].中共中央党校出版社,2006
[16]高鸿业主编.西方经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2007
[17]刘卫东等.城市地价评估理论探索与实践[M].科学出版社,2008
[18]李何超主编.城市土地定级与基准地价评估实证研究[M].科学出版社,2009
[19]杜德斌等.影响上海市地价空间分布的区位因子[J].地理学报1997(5)
[20]张波等.济南市土地资产评估结果比较分析[J].山东大学学报,2001(3)
[21]李小波等.河北省城镇土地基准地价结构比率分析.地理学与国土研究[J].1998(2)
[22]王庆改等.城镇基准地价结构分析.山东师大学报[J].2008(2)
[23]项国民等.城镇土地分等估价法析议及应用.宁波大学学报[J].1994(2)
[24]吴哲宇等.基于Kriging技术的城市基准地价评估研究.经济地理[J].2001(9)
[25]宗跃光等.空间插值法在地价梯度分析中的应用——以北京住宅用地为例.房地产评估[J].2003(11)
[26]陈淮.怎样用市场看地价.中国土地[J].2001(12)：26-28
[27]单胜道等.外部地价论.浙江大学学报[J],2000,30(3)：156-160
[28]陈思源等.GIS空间分析支持下的城市地价分布研究.南京农业大学学报[J],2005,28(3)：119-112
[29]陈浮等.城市地价分布图式的地统计学分析.南京大学学报[J],2002(1)
[30]单卫东等.区域中心地价的空间扩散研究.经济地理[J],1997,17(1)：42-45
[31]杜小娅等.南京市区地价空间分布及影响因素分析.国土资源遥感[J],2004(2)
[32]杜忠潮等.咸阳市城区基准地价空间分布和区位因子分析.咸阳师范学院学报[J],2002
[33]蒋芳等.基于GIS的地价空间分布规律研究——以北京市住宅地价为例.经济地理[J],2005
[34]况伟大.我国主要的土地价值及其述评.中外房地产导报,2001(11)：18-19
[35]李玲等.都市地价空间分析方法及其应用.资源科学,2003,25(4)：86-92
[36]张所地等.城市土地定级估价综合模型研究.中国土地科学[J].1998,12(5)