循环经济规划的理论、方法及初步应用
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摘要
循环经济一直是众多领域研究的热点问题。国内外学者乃至社会各界从不同角度对其概念、理论及相关实践问题进行了讨论和研究。然而,90年代以来,循环经济的研究主要集中在环境、体制等宏观领域,针对微观领域特别系统的量化分析的研究相对较少。因此,从整体的角度对各个层面的循环经济系统进行量化分析是必要的,也是必须的。本文以系统工程理论、自动控制理论和生态工程理论为指导,对循环经济的系统模型、系统方法和应用评价等问题进行了较全面和深入的研究。主要内容如下:
(1)引入环境系统动力学模型,通过仿真结果,得出环境负荷随着污染量的增加和环境处理能力的减弱而呈正反馈增加的结论,并由此引入循环经济。介绍了循环经济的概念、原则和发展建议。
(2)追溯了静态投入产出模型,提出了基于多部门多时段的以效用最大化为目标的动态循环经济系统分析模型,并将生产部门和循环部门有效的结合起来;汇总了不同层面的循环经济分析方法。
(3)总结并改进了各种循环经济分析方法。主要包括:①改进了一般有效能分析方法,在化学有效能和物理有效能的基础上,引入了混合物质状态变化(特别是压力有较大变化)时的有效能变化值。②从不同角度分析了生命周期评价模型。一是对简式生命周期评价矩阵引入评价权重。二是针对产品生命周期的环境影响,引入四阶段模型和2×3矩阵分析方法。三是应用生产管理理论和自动控制理论,提出了基于反馈流程的产品生命周期的经济分析模型。③改进了物料闭环控制系统的线性分析方法,提出了基于流程的时变系统状态下的非线性闭环控制结构流图和其分析方法。
(4)在实际应用中,提出将LCA与线性规划LP结合起来的结构模型,并以循环经济系统分析模型为基础分析了无锡某小区的中水系统规划及污水管网系统规划。
(5)给出一种切合实际的大循环经济系统评价方法。在此评价中,引入了改进的AHP权重分析方法,有效地将模糊评价方法和多层次分灰色评价模型结合起来进行综合评价。
Circular economy has been the focus of discussion for many fields. Scholars from both home and abroad, even people of various circles, have been clarifying and studying its concept, theory and relevant practice. From 1990s, however, the research of circular economy has been mainly on the macro-fields such as environment, mechanism etc, and therefore, the research on micro-fields, particularly quantitive analysis, is relatively insufficient. Hence the overall and synthetic research on circular economy of various lays is essential and necessary. Guided by the theory of systems engineering, the automation theory and the method of ecological engineering, the system model, system methods and its practical evaluation of circular economy are comprehensively and profoundly studied. It can be outlined as follows:
(1)By conducting environmental systems dynamic models and simulating, conclusion is drawn as follow: the environmental load aggravates characteristically of positively feedback with the increase of pollution and decrease of environmental absorbing ability, thus circular economy is induced. Its concepts, principles and suggestions of development are introduced.
(2)Static Input-output model is reviewed; By integrating production sectors and recycle sectors, dynamical circular economy models based on multi-sector, multi-period and maximal economical utility are put forward. Analyzing methods of various circular economy lays are gathered.
(3)Various analyzing methods are summarized and improved. It mainly includes: ①Based on the analyse of chemical exergy and physical exergy, an improved method of exergy is put forward in which the exergy change of mixing is considered. ②Life cycle assessment model is analyzed from different points. First, weighs are induced to the reduced life cycle assessment. Second, for the environmental impact of products life cycle, four periods model and 2×3 matrix methods are induced. Third, economic analysis model of product life cycle based on the feedback process is put forward, in which the theory of operation management and automation are used. ③The linear analyzing method of material closed loop control system is improved and none-linear closed loop control graph and its solving method is put forward, which is based on the time-varying processes.
(4)In the fourth chapter, the structure model integrating LCA and LP is given, and also in this chapter, the circular economy analyzing model is used to design the middle-water and sewage pipeline net systems in an uptown of Wuxi.
(5)A practical evaluation method of large circular economy system is expounded, in which improved method of obtaining AHP weigh is proposed, and also fuzzy assessment and multi-layer gray assessment model is effectively combined.
(1)引入环境系统动力学模型,通过仿真结果,得出环境负荷随着污染量的增加和环境处理能力的减弱而呈正反馈增加的结论,并由此引入循环经济。介绍了循环经济的概念、原则和发展建议。
(2)追溯了静态投入产出模型,提出了基于多部门多时段的以效用最大化为目标的动态循环经济系统分析模型,并将生产部门和循环部门有效的结合起来;汇总了不同层面的循环经济分析方法。
(3)总结并改进了各种循环经济分析方法。主要包括:①改进了一般有效能分析方法,在化学有效能和物理有效能的基础上,引入了混合物质状态变化(特别是压力有较大变化)时的有效能变化值。②从不同角度分析了生命周期评价模型。一是对简式生命周期评价矩阵引入评价权重。二是针对产品生命周期的环境影响,引入四阶段模型和2×3矩阵分析方法。三是应用生产管理理论和自动控制理论,提出了基于反馈流程的产品生命周期的经济分析模型。③改进了物料闭环控制系统的线性分析方法,提出了基于流程的时变系统状态下的非线性闭环控制结构流图和其分析方法。
(4)在实际应用中,提出将LCA与线性规划LP结合起来的结构模型,并以循环经济系统分析模型为基础分析了无锡某小区的中水系统规划及污水管网系统规划。
(5)给出一种切合实际的大循环经济系统评价方法。在此评价中,引入了改进的AHP权重分析方法,有效地将模糊评价方法和多层次分灰色评价模型结合起来进行综合评价。
Circular economy has been the focus of discussion for many fields. Scholars from both home and abroad, even people of various circles, have been clarifying and studying its concept, theory and relevant practice. From 1990s, however, the research of circular economy has been mainly on the macro-fields such as environment, mechanism etc, and therefore, the research on micro-fields, particularly quantitive analysis, is relatively insufficient. Hence the overall and synthetic research on circular economy of various lays is essential and necessary. Guided by the theory of systems engineering, the automation theory and the method of ecological engineering, the system model, system methods and its practical evaluation of circular economy are comprehensively and profoundly studied. It can be outlined as follows:
(1)By conducting environmental systems dynamic models and simulating, conclusion is drawn as follow: the environmental load aggravates characteristically of positively feedback with the increase of pollution and decrease of environmental absorbing ability, thus circular economy is induced. Its concepts, principles and suggestions of development are introduced.
(2)Static Input-output model is reviewed; By integrating production sectors and recycle sectors, dynamical circular economy models based on multi-sector, multi-period and maximal economical utility are put forward. Analyzing methods of various circular economy lays are gathered.
(3)Various analyzing methods are summarized and improved. It mainly includes: ①Based on the analyse of chemical exergy and physical exergy, an improved method of exergy is put forward in which the exergy change of mixing is considered. ②Life cycle assessment model is analyzed from different points. First, weighs are induced to the reduced life cycle assessment. Second, for the environmental impact of products life cycle, four periods model and 2×3 matrix methods are induced. Third, economic analysis model of product life cycle based on the feedback process is put forward, in which the theory of operation management and automation are used. ③The linear analyzing method of material closed loop control system is improved and none-linear closed loop control graph and its solving method is put forward, which is based on the time-varying processes.
(4)In the fourth chapter, the structure model integrating LCA and LP is given, and also in this chapter, the circular economy analyzing model is used to design the middle-water and sewage pipeline net systems in an uptown of Wuxi.
(5)A practical evaluation method of large circular economy system is expounded, in which improved method of obtaining AHP weigh is proposed, and also fuzzy assessment and multi-layer gray assessment model is effectively combined.
引文
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http://www.bjstats.gov.cn/trcc/bjzl/200301060059.htm,2002.11
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http://www.ncer.tsinghua.edu.cn/lunwen/paper2/wp200005.doc,2000.3
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