FDI的产业效应研究
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摘要
我国已成为发展中国家中吸引外资最多的国家,然而我国在宏观层面和产业层面上利用外资的效果却存在很大的差异。产业层面的引资效果不容乐观,主要表现在高新技术产业严重依赖外资,产业关联效应不强,FDI产业集群的根植性不强等等。为了进一步提高利用外资的质量,并实现外资和内资在产业层面的协调发展,本文将FDI的产业效应作为研究主题。通过运用理论分析和实证分析相结合的方法,在外商直接投资理论和对跨国公司的产业经济分析的基础上,基于产业市场不完全性的假设前提,对FDI的产业效应进行了深入系统地研究。不仅从理论机理上阐述了FDI产业效应的形成机制,还通过理论模型的构建,对FDI产业效应的构成体系和影响因素,进行了具体分析。最后选取江苏省制造业为对象进行了实证检验,并提出可以提升FDI产业效应的外资政策和产业政策的协调战略。
在FDI的外部性、市场不完全和产业集群理论的前提下,FDI的载体跨国公司不管在国际生产链的扩张阶段、集群阶段还是整合阶段的行为都表现出一定的产业经济特征,这是FDI产业效应产生的重要基础。本文认为,FDI的产业效应就是跨国公司的投资行为,透过资本、商品和劳动力资源的有机流动,在产业层面上改变东道国(地区)的需求结构和资源结构,间接影响经济效应的变化,这种变化会间接地通过传导机制直接深入东道国产业内部,借助生产活动的安排,利用多种生产要素向其他企业、前后向关联产业流动,促进当地产业和企业与国际市场和国际经济的联系,提升东道国整体产业的效应表现。由于实现产业增长需要一定时间,FDI在促进东道国资本形成及产业结构和产业组织优化的过程中,会对产业投资总量、产业关联度发生影响,并表现出一定的产业集聚性。因此,FDI的产业投资效应、产业关联效应和产业集群效应就是FDI产业效应中的间接效应。
FDI的产业投资效应就是FDI在产业层面上对国内资本存量产生影响的过程。行业层面上,FDI与国内投资的关系主要取决于生产函数的选择。而FDI对任一个行业内的国内资本存量的影响,主要取决于外商投资的动机和外资所来源的行业的特征。一般来说,市场寻求型(水平型)FDI倾向于具有正面效应,而生产成本驱动型(垂直型)FDI可以同时具有正面和负面效应。行业需求越缺乏价格弹性且跨国公司在该行业内的比重越大,垂直型FDI的正面效应就将越大。投入品行业的FDI趋于对国内资本存量具有正面效应,而产成品行业的FDI却可能同时具有正面或负面效应。
FDI的产业关联效应是FDI进入东道国某一产业后,引起该产业变化的同时,对其上下游产业的影响,包括FDI在刚刚进入时的初始生产效应和与当地企业发生关联后的反馈效应,并且处在上游和下游的跨国公司会有不同的表现和影响力。当外资企业处在下游时,那么外资项目的出口倾向越大(或者进口替代),外资项目在细分的市场中与当地企业区别越大,外资项目越多地使用当地的中间产品,则FDI的初始效应就越大;当上游产业的不完全竞争程度越高(价格越是高于成本),反馈效应就越强;当下游产业对下游产品的需求弹性越大,以牺牲进口为代价扩张销售额的潜力越大。反馈效应使产出进一步扩张并使福利增加。
FDI的产业集群效应就是FDI在产业集聚的过程中发生的与产业集群之间的互动机制和互动效应,主要表现为FDI与产业集聚度之间的良性互动。其中,互动机制是互动效应实现的重要保障。在FDI与产业集群之间互动机制保障的前提条件下,FDI与产业集群的互动效应共分两个步骤实现:一是产业集群形成对FDI的引力,二是FDI增强了产业集群发展的动力。可以将FDI集群的升级看作FDI产业集群效应的发挥,也就是在FDI与产业集群之间出现了良性的互动效应。
在上述理论分析的基础上,论文选取江苏省制造业进行实证分析,发现FDI的产业效应具有行业异质性特征,并且FDI的产业关联效应和产业集群效应的差异也会对FDI的产业投资效应产生一定影响。最后在提升FDI的产业效应的研究主旨下,本文提出了外资政策和产业政策的协调整合战略。以产业效应为基础外资政策的调整包括:在引资方面应积极引进产业关联度高的项目,以培育国内相关产业的发展;在外资进入模式上要鼓励跨国并购,以强化外商投资企业与本土企业的后向联系;注重产业集群的区位及产业选择的导向;考虑集群内部结构的优化和发展方向的引导并通过集群政策来强化服务功能。以产业效应为基础的产业政策的调整包括:以集群政策代替传统的产业政策,并在FDI产业投资效应的基础上进一步深化产业集群政策。
China has become the nation with the largest inflow of FDI among the developing nations. But the effect of FDI is much different between the macro and industrial levels. The effect of FDI on the industrial level is not optimistic. For example, high-tech industry depends on FDI seriously. Besides, industrial linkages are not strong and the root of FDI industry is not strong etc. In order to improve the quality of FDI and realize the coordination of foreign investment and domestic investment, we study the industrial effect of FDI. Through the combination of theoretical and empirical analysis and based on the foreign direct investment theories and the industrial analysis of transnational companies, we have made a deep and systematic study on the industrial effects of FDI under the assumption of incomplete industrial market. We have not only explained the mechanism of industrial effects of FDI in theory, but also analyzed the system and affecting factors of it through models. Finally, we take Jiangsu Province as the example to make empirical tests and put forward the coordinating polices to improve the industrial effects of FDI.
Under the assumption of externality of FDI, incomplete market and the cluster theories, multinational companies, as the media of FDI, have shown an extent of industrial characteristics not only at the stage of enlargement of international supply chain and cluster, but also at the stage of integration. We think that the industrial effects of FDI are just the investment behavior of multinational companies. It goes through the organic inflow of capital, commodities and labor force, and changes the structure of demand and resource in host nations on the industrial levels. It influences the economic effects indirectly and such changes will penetrate into the inner industry in host nations indirectly through transmitting mechanisms. Thorough the arrangement of production and the factors flowing into the other firms and connecting industries, it can also encourage the contacts among the domestic industries, firms and international economy and improve the integrated performance of industrial effects. Because it takes some time to realize industrial growth, FDI will affect total industrial investment, industrial linkage and show some cluster characteristics in host nations during the course of capital formation and optimization on industrial structure and industrial organization. Thus, the indirect effects of FDI include industrial investment effect, industrial linkage effect and industrial cluster effect.
The industrial investment effect is the course that FDI affects the domestic capital stock on the industrial level. The relationship of FDI and domestic investment on the industrial level mainly depends on the choice of production function, but the impact of FDI on domestic capital stock in any industry depends on the motive of FDI and characteristics of souring industries. Normally, market-seeking FDI is inclined to have positive effects while the cost-driving FDI can have positive and negative effects at the same time. More inelastic of the industrial demand and bigger percentage of multinational companies, the positive effects of vertical FDI will be bigger. FDI in input industry tends to have positive effects on domestic capital stock, while FDI in output industry may have double effects.
The industrial linkage effects of FDI are the impacts on the upper and lower industries after its entry into host nations and induced changes at the same time, which include initial production effects after entry and feedback effects with linkages with local firms. Besides, multinational companies on upper and lower reaches usually have different performance and impact. When the foreign companies are on the lower reaches, the exporting tendency of foreign projects is bigger and the difference between the foreign project and local firms is bigger, foreign projects will use more local intermediate goods. Then the initial effects of FDI will turn bigger. When the extent of incomplete competition on upper reaches is higher, the feedback effect will be bigger. When the elasticity of products on lower reaches is bigger, the potentiality to enlarge the sale at the price of import will be bigger. The feedback effects enlarge the output deeply and improve the welfare.
The industrial cluster effect of FDI is the interaction mechanism and interaction effect between FDI and cluster during the agglomeration, and mainly behaves the positive interaction between FDI and cluster. Usually, interaction mechanism is the assurance of interaction effect. Under the premise of interaction mechanism between FDI and industrial cluster, the realization of interaction effect has two steps. Firstly, industrial clusters form the attraction of FDI. Secondly, FDI strengthens the motive of industrial clusters. We can look on the upgrading of FDI cluster as the development of industrial effects, which arises the positive interaction effects between FDI and industrial clusters.
Based on the above theoretical analysis, we choose Jiangsu province to make empirical analysis and have found the industrial heterogeneity of industrial effects of FDI. Moreover, the industrial linkage effects and industrial cluster effects can also affect the industrial investment effects of FDI. Finally, we put forward the coordination of FDI policy and industrial policy with objective of improving the industrial effects of FDI. On the basis of industrial effects, the adjustment of FDI policies include the introduction of foreign projects with high industrial linkages to foster domestic related industries, the encouragement of transnational merger to strengthen the backward linkages between foreign firms and local firms, the emphasis on the orientation of cluster region and industry choices, and the optimization of internal cluster structures and the guidance of development with the service function of cluster polices. Based on the industrial effects, the adjustment of industrial polices include the substation of cluster policy for traditional industrial polices and deepening the industrial cluster polices on the basis of industrial effects of FDI.
在FDI的外部性、市场不完全和产业集群理论的前提下,FDI的载体跨国公司不管在国际生产链的扩张阶段、集群阶段还是整合阶段的行为都表现出一定的产业经济特征,这是FDI产业效应产生的重要基础。本文认为,FDI的产业效应就是跨国公司的投资行为,透过资本、商品和劳动力资源的有机流动,在产业层面上改变东道国(地区)的需求结构和资源结构,间接影响经济效应的变化,这种变化会间接地通过传导机制直接深入东道国产业内部,借助生产活动的安排,利用多种生产要素向其他企业、前后向关联产业流动,促进当地产业和企业与国际市场和国际经济的联系,提升东道国整体产业的效应表现。由于实现产业增长需要一定时间,FDI在促进东道国资本形成及产业结构和产业组织优化的过程中,会对产业投资总量、产业关联度发生影响,并表现出一定的产业集聚性。因此,FDI的产业投资效应、产业关联效应和产业集群效应就是FDI产业效应中的间接效应。
FDI的产业投资效应就是FDI在产业层面上对国内资本存量产生影响的过程。行业层面上,FDI与国内投资的关系主要取决于生产函数的选择。而FDI对任一个行业内的国内资本存量的影响,主要取决于外商投资的动机和外资所来源的行业的特征。一般来说,市场寻求型(水平型)FDI倾向于具有正面效应,而生产成本驱动型(垂直型)FDI可以同时具有正面和负面效应。行业需求越缺乏价格弹性且跨国公司在该行业内的比重越大,垂直型FDI的正面效应就将越大。投入品行业的FDI趋于对国内资本存量具有正面效应,而产成品行业的FDI却可能同时具有正面或负面效应。
FDI的产业关联效应是FDI进入东道国某一产业后,引起该产业变化的同时,对其上下游产业的影响,包括FDI在刚刚进入时的初始生产效应和与当地企业发生关联后的反馈效应,并且处在上游和下游的跨国公司会有不同的表现和影响力。当外资企业处在下游时,那么外资项目的出口倾向越大(或者进口替代),外资项目在细分的市场中与当地企业区别越大,外资项目越多地使用当地的中间产品,则FDI的初始效应就越大;当上游产业的不完全竞争程度越高(价格越是高于成本),反馈效应就越强;当下游产业对下游产品的需求弹性越大,以牺牲进口为代价扩张销售额的潜力越大。反馈效应使产出进一步扩张并使福利增加。
FDI的产业集群效应就是FDI在产业集聚的过程中发生的与产业集群之间的互动机制和互动效应,主要表现为FDI与产业集聚度之间的良性互动。其中,互动机制是互动效应实现的重要保障。在FDI与产业集群之间互动机制保障的前提条件下,FDI与产业集群的互动效应共分两个步骤实现:一是产业集群形成对FDI的引力,二是FDI增强了产业集群发展的动力。可以将FDI集群的升级看作FDI产业集群效应的发挥,也就是在FDI与产业集群之间出现了良性的互动效应。
在上述理论分析的基础上,论文选取江苏省制造业进行实证分析,发现FDI的产业效应具有行业异质性特征,并且FDI的产业关联效应和产业集群效应的差异也会对FDI的产业投资效应产生一定影响。最后在提升FDI的产业效应的研究主旨下,本文提出了外资政策和产业政策的协调整合战略。以产业效应为基础外资政策的调整包括:在引资方面应积极引进产业关联度高的项目,以培育国内相关产业的发展;在外资进入模式上要鼓励跨国并购,以强化外商投资企业与本土企业的后向联系;注重产业集群的区位及产业选择的导向;考虑集群内部结构的优化和发展方向的引导并通过集群政策来强化服务功能。以产业效应为基础的产业政策的调整包括:以集群政策代替传统的产业政策,并在FDI产业投资效应的基础上进一步深化产业集群政策。
China has become the nation with the largest inflow of FDI among the developing nations. But the effect of FDI is much different between the macro and industrial levels. The effect of FDI on the industrial level is not optimistic. For example, high-tech industry depends on FDI seriously. Besides, industrial linkages are not strong and the root of FDI industry is not strong etc. In order to improve the quality of FDI and realize the coordination of foreign investment and domestic investment, we study the industrial effect of FDI. Through the combination of theoretical and empirical analysis and based on the foreign direct investment theories and the industrial analysis of transnational companies, we have made a deep and systematic study on the industrial effects of FDI under the assumption of incomplete industrial market. We have not only explained the mechanism of industrial effects of FDI in theory, but also analyzed the system and affecting factors of it through models. Finally, we take Jiangsu Province as the example to make empirical tests and put forward the coordinating polices to improve the industrial effects of FDI.
Under the assumption of externality of FDI, incomplete market and the cluster theories, multinational companies, as the media of FDI, have shown an extent of industrial characteristics not only at the stage of enlargement of international supply chain and cluster, but also at the stage of integration. We think that the industrial effects of FDI are just the investment behavior of multinational companies. It goes through the organic inflow of capital, commodities and labor force, and changes the structure of demand and resource in host nations on the industrial levels. It influences the economic effects indirectly and such changes will penetrate into the inner industry in host nations indirectly through transmitting mechanisms. Thorough the arrangement of production and the factors flowing into the other firms and connecting industries, it can also encourage the contacts among the domestic industries, firms and international economy and improve the integrated performance of industrial effects. Because it takes some time to realize industrial growth, FDI will affect total industrial investment, industrial linkage and show some cluster characteristics in host nations during the course of capital formation and optimization on industrial structure and industrial organization. Thus, the indirect effects of FDI include industrial investment effect, industrial linkage effect and industrial cluster effect.
The industrial investment effect is the course that FDI affects the domestic capital stock on the industrial level. The relationship of FDI and domestic investment on the industrial level mainly depends on the choice of production function, but the impact of FDI on domestic capital stock in any industry depends on the motive of FDI and characteristics of souring industries. Normally, market-seeking FDI is inclined to have positive effects while the cost-driving FDI can have positive and negative effects at the same time. More inelastic of the industrial demand and bigger percentage of multinational companies, the positive effects of vertical FDI will be bigger. FDI in input industry tends to have positive effects on domestic capital stock, while FDI in output industry may have double effects.
The industrial linkage effects of FDI are the impacts on the upper and lower industries after its entry into host nations and induced changes at the same time, which include initial production effects after entry and feedback effects with linkages with local firms. Besides, multinational companies on upper and lower reaches usually have different performance and impact. When the foreign companies are on the lower reaches, the exporting tendency of foreign projects is bigger and the difference between the foreign project and local firms is bigger, foreign projects will use more local intermediate goods. Then the initial effects of FDI will turn bigger. When the extent of incomplete competition on upper reaches is higher, the feedback effect will be bigger. When the elasticity of products on lower reaches is bigger, the potentiality to enlarge the sale at the price of import will be bigger. The feedback effects enlarge the output deeply and improve the welfare.
The industrial cluster effect of FDI is the interaction mechanism and interaction effect between FDI and cluster during the agglomeration, and mainly behaves the positive interaction between FDI and cluster. Usually, interaction mechanism is the assurance of interaction effect. Under the premise of interaction mechanism between FDI and industrial cluster, the realization of interaction effect has two steps. Firstly, industrial clusters form the attraction of FDI. Secondly, FDI strengthens the motive of industrial clusters. We can look on the upgrading of FDI cluster as the development of industrial effects, which arises the positive interaction effects between FDI and industrial clusters.
Based on the above theoretical analysis, we choose Jiangsu province to make empirical analysis and have found the industrial heterogeneity of industrial effects of FDI. Moreover, the industrial linkage effects and industrial cluster effects can also affect the industrial investment effects of FDI. Finally, we put forward the coordination of FDI policy and industrial policy with objective of improving the industrial effects of FDI. On the basis of industrial effects, the adjustment of FDI policies include the introduction of foreign projects with high industrial linkages to foster domestic related industries, the encouragement of transnational merger to strengthen the backward linkages between foreign firms and local firms, the emphasis on the orientation of cluster region and industry choices, and the optimization of internal cluster structures and the guidance of development with the service function of cluster polices. Based on the industrial effects, the adjustment of industrial polices include the substation of cluster policy for traditional industrial polices and deepening the industrial cluster polices on the basis of industrial effects of FDI.
引文
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