中国劳动收入比重变动研究
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摘要
目前中国处在二元经济结构转型时期,同时近年来中国的对外开放日益深化,但是中国的劳动收入比重却出现了下降的现象。探究劳动收入比重自身变化的规律以及对外开放与经济结构转型对其影响的机理就显得很有意义了。
本文首先从劳动收入比重的定义出发构建了劳动收入比重的增长率的理论分解公式,发现劳动收入比重的增长率主要受三个因素影响：乘数大小、人均资本深化速率、要素偏向型技术进步。乘数大于0时资本深化能提高劳动收入比重,乘数小于0时会降低劳动收入比重,乘数绝对值大于1时乘数会扩大资本深化对劳动收入比重的影响,乘数绝对值小于1时会缩减资本深化对劳动收入比重的影响。资本节约型技术进步会提高劳动收入比重,而劳动节约型技术进步会降低劳动收入比重。接着本文利用得到的分解公式对中国制造业部门、工业部门以及美国的工业部门劳动收入比重增长率进行分解,并从资本深化、要素偏向型技术进步的角度提出了稳定劳动收入比重的政策建议。
在此基础上文章着眼于开放经济,对中国出现背离斯托尔珀-萨缪尔森定理现象的原因进行理论解释。根据理论推导发现,国际贸易具有技术进步效应,劳动力丰裕国家贸易开放会引起劳动节约型技术进步,该技术进步会降低劳动收入比重,这抵消了正向的要素收入效应,这解释了近年来中国外贸依存度上升与劳动收入比重下降的现象。本文还利用中国1987-2006年的29个省及直辖市的数据建立分时间段的模型对理论分析结论进行了实证研究与验证,并从国际贸易的角度提出了稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
同时,本文又探索了FDI对中国的劳动收入比重影响。运用概率论构建了符合中国国情的理论模型。研究发现,FDI对劳动收入比重的影响呈现U型曲线规律。在FDI较低时FDI对劳动收入比重有抑制作用,当FDI的数量超过拐点之后FDI对劳动收入比重起拉动作用。接着本文还利用1995—2007年中国省际面板数据进行了分地区的实证研究与验证。并从FDI对劳动收入比重的影响,以及地区差异的角度提出了稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
针对中国处在二元经济转型时期的特点,本文分析了这一大背景下劳动收入比重变动的规律。研究发现：“刘易斯第一拐点”到来之前经济结构转型会引起劳动收入比重下降。“刘易斯第一拐点”之后,二元经济结构转型对劳动收入比重变动的作用呈现n型曲线,即随着农业部门劳动力的转移劳动收入比重先上升后下降。这一过程一直持续直到“刘易斯第二拐点”的到来。
在此基础上,本文将开放经济的因素纳入到这一大背景下,考察二元经济结构转型、国际贸易、FDI对一国劳动收入比重的影响。得出结论,国际贸易与FDI对劳动收入比重均有三方面的效应：“要素收入效应”、“技术进步效应”、“劳动转移效应”。对于一个劳动力相对充裕的国家来说,国际贸易的要素收入效应一开始为正,后由于资本密集型产品获得比较优势,国际贸易的要素收入效应变为负。国际贸易的技术进步效应为负。国际贸易的三个效应中劳动转移效应最先显现,二元经济的第一阶段劳动力相对充裕的国家劳动转移效应为正,二元经济的第二阶段劳动转移效应加速了n型曲线的形成,二元经济第二阶段的末期,劳动转移效应逐渐趋向于0。发展中经济体FDI的要素收入效应在二元经济第一阶段是负的,第二阶段是正的。FDI的劳动转移效应在二元经济的第一阶段是负的,第二阶段加快了n曲线的形成。接着本文利用跨国数据进行实证研究,通过计量回归测度了不同经济发展水平的三类国家各种主要因素的影响大小与影响方式,并用非结构分析方法研究了各影响因素对劳动收入比重的贡献率大小,研究了国际贸易与FDI三类效应的动态演进规律。最后从国际比较与开放经济的综合视角提出稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
Nowadays China is in the transition period of dual economy and at the same time China is becoming more and more open to the world day by day. However the labor's share of China declines as time passed so it's significant to study the influence of openness and the transition of dual economy.
First, this paper utilizies the concept of labor's share to construct a formular of decompositing labor share's increasing rate and finds out labor share's increasing rate is determined by three factors:the multiplier, per capita capital increasing rate and Hicksian factor biased technology.If the multiplier is bigger than zero, the capital can increase labor's share and if the multiplier is smaller than zero, the capital will decrease labor's share. In case the absolute value of multiplier is bigger than 1, the multiplier will amplify the impact of capital on labor's share and if the absolute value of multiplier is smaller than 1, the multiplier will diminish the impact of capital on labor's share. Capital saving technology will increase labor's share and labor saving technology will decrease labor's share. Then the paper decomposes labor share increasing rate of manufacturing industry in China and industrial sector both in China and in the USA. By doing this the paper put forward some advice for stabilizing labor's share from the point of view of technology and capital.
Then the paper tries to explain the reasons for conflicting phenomenon of China'share labor share with the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. It finds out that international trade will generate negative technological effect on labor's share which is offset the positive income effect generated by international trade. This explains why labor's share of China is declining accompanied with openness. This paper also does some empirical study use data from 29 province during 1987 and 2006 and gives some policy suggestion for increasing labor's share of China from view of international trade.
On the other hand, this paper research the influence of FDI on labor's share using probability theory and game theory. It finds out that the influence of FDI on labor's share indicating a U-shape curve which means when the amount of FDI is low, FDI tends to decrease labor's share and when the amount of FDI exceeds some turning point, FDI tends to increase labor's share. This paper also does some empirical study on this aspect using the data from China's province during 1995 and 2007. Then it gives some political advice from FDI point of view.
Finally this paper research the effect of transition of dual economy on labor's share and finds out before the first Lewis turing point labor's share declines while economy is transiting and after the first Lewis turning point the transition process has an n-shape effect on labor's share which means at first labor's share raises during transition process and after some time labor's share declines during transition process. At last the paper incorporates openness factor into dual economy system and research systematically. It finds out that both international trade and FDI have three kinds of effects on labor's share:labor transition effect, factor income effect and technology effect. The factor income effect of international trade is positive at first then turns to be negative. The technology effect of international trade is negative all the time. The labor transition effect of international trade is positive at the first phase of dual economy and accelerates the formation of n-shape curve at the second phase of international trade. At the end of dual economy the labor transition effect is zero due to the end of transiting of labor force. The factor income effect of FDI is negagtive at the first phase of dual economy and then turns to be positive at the second phase. The labor transition effect of FDI is negative at the first phase of dual economy and accelerates the formation of n-shape curve at the second phase of international trade. At the end of dual economy the labor transition effect is zero due to the end of transiting of labor force. At the last part the paper does some empirical study using cross-country data and gives some political advice to stabilize labor's share.
本文首先从劳动收入比重的定义出发构建了劳动收入比重的增长率的理论分解公式,发现劳动收入比重的增长率主要受三个因素影响：乘数大小、人均资本深化速率、要素偏向型技术进步。乘数大于0时资本深化能提高劳动收入比重,乘数小于0时会降低劳动收入比重,乘数绝对值大于1时乘数会扩大资本深化对劳动收入比重的影响,乘数绝对值小于1时会缩减资本深化对劳动收入比重的影响。资本节约型技术进步会提高劳动收入比重,而劳动节约型技术进步会降低劳动收入比重。接着本文利用得到的分解公式对中国制造业部门、工业部门以及美国的工业部门劳动收入比重增长率进行分解,并从资本深化、要素偏向型技术进步的角度提出了稳定劳动收入比重的政策建议。
在此基础上文章着眼于开放经济,对中国出现背离斯托尔珀-萨缪尔森定理现象的原因进行理论解释。根据理论推导发现,国际贸易具有技术进步效应,劳动力丰裕国家贸易开放会引起劳动节约型技术进步,该技术进步会降低劳动收入比重,这抵消了正向的要素收入效应,这解释了近年来中国外贸依存度上升与劳动收入比重下降的现象。本文还利用中国1987-2006年的29个省及直辖市的数据建立分时间段的模型对理论分析结论进行了实证研究与验证,并从国际贸易的角度提出了稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
同时,本文又探索了FDI对中国的劳动收入比重影响。运用概率论构建了符合中国国情的理论模型。研究发现,FDI对劳动收入比重的影响呈现U型曲线规律。在FDI较低时FDI对劳动收入比重有抑制作用,当FDI的数量超过拐点之后FDI对劳动收入比重起拉动作用。接着本文还利用1995—2007年中国省际面板数据进行了分地区的实证研究与验证。并从FDI对劳动收入比重的影响,以及地区差异的角度提出了稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
针对中国处在二元经济转型时期的特点,本文分析了这一大背景下劳动收入比重变动的规律。研究发现：“刘易斯第一拐点”到来之前经济结构转型会引起劳动收入比重下降。“刘易斯第一拐点”之后,二元经济结构转型对劳动收入比重变动的作用呈现n型曲线,即随着农业部门劳动力的转移劳动收入比重先上升后下降。这一过程一直持续直到“刘易斯第二拐点”的到来。
在此基础上,本文将开放经济的因素纳入到这一大背景下,考察二元经济结构转型、国际贸易、FDI对一国劳动收入比重的影响。得出结论,国际贸易与FDI对劳动收入比重均有三方面的效应：“要素收入效应”、“技术进步效应”、“劳动转移效应”。对于一个劳动力相对充裕的国家来说,国际贸易的要素收入效应一开始为正,后由于资本密集型产品获得比较优势,国际贸易的要素收入效应变为负。国际贸易的技术进步效应为负。国际贸易的三个效应中劳动转移效应最先显现,二元经济的第一阶段劳动力相对充裕的国家劳动转移效应为正,二元经济的第二阶段劳动转移效应加速了n型曲线的形成,二元经济第二阶段的末期,劳动转移效应逐渐趋向于0。发展中经济体FDI的要素收入效应在二元经济第一阶段是负的,第二阶段是正的。FDI的劳动转移效应在二元经济的第一阶段是负的,第二阶段加快了n曲线的形成。接着本文利用跨国数据进行实证研究,通过计量回归测度了不同经济发展水平的三类国家各种主要因素的影响大小与影响方式,并用非结构分析方法研究了各影响因素对劳动收入比重的贡献率大小,研究了国际贸易与FDI三类效应的动态演进规律。最后从国际比较与开放经济的综合视角提出稳定中国劳动收入比重的政策建议。
Nowadays China is in the transition period of dual economy and at the same time China is becoming more and more open to the world day by day. However the labor's share of China declines as time passed so it's significant to study the influence of openness and the transition of dual economy.
First, this paper utilizies the concept of labor's share to construct a formular of decompositing labor share's increasing rate and finds out labor share's increasing rate is determined by three factors:the multiplier, per capita capital increasing rate and Hicksian factor biased technology.If the multiplier is bigger than zero, the capital can increase labor's share and if the multiplier is smaller than zero, the capital will decrease labor's share. In case the absolute value of multiplier is bigger than 1, the multiplier will amplify the impact of capital on labor's share and if the absolute value of multiplier is smaller than 1, the multiplier will diminish the impact of capital on labor's share. Capital saving technology will increase labor's share and labor saving technology will decrease labor's share. Then the paper decomposes labor share increasing rate of manufacturing industry in China and industrial sector both in China and in the USA. By doing this the paper put forward some advice for stabilizing labor's share from the point of view of technology and capital.
Then the paper tries to explain the reasons for conflicting phenomenon of China'share labor share with the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. It finds out that international trade will generate negative technological effect on labor's share which is offset the positive income effect generated by international trade. This explains why labor's share of China is declining accompanied with openness. This paper also does some empirical study use data from 29 province during 1987 and 2006 and gives some policy suggestion for increasing labor's share of China from view of international trade.
On the other hand, this paper research the influence of FDI on labor's share using probability theory and game theory. It finds out that the influence of FDI on labor's share indicating a U-shape curve which means when the amount of FDI is low, FDI tends to decrease labor's share and when the amount of FDI exceeds some turning point, FDI tends to increase labor's share. This paper also does some empirical study on this aspect using the data from China's province during 1995 and 2007. Then it gives some political advice from FDI point of view.
Finally this paper research the effect of transition of dual economy on labor's share and finds out before the first Lewis turing point labor's share declines while economy is transiting and after the first Lewis turning point the transition process has an n-shape effect on labor's share which means at first labor's share raises during transition process and after some time labor's share declines during transition process. At last the paper incorporates openness factor into dual economy system and research systematically. It finds out that both international trade and FDI have three kinds of effects on labor's share:labor transition effect, factor income effect and technology effect. The factor income effect of international trade is positive at first then turns to be negative. The technology effect of international trade is negative all the time. The labor transition effect of international trade is positive at the first phase of dual economy and accelerates the formation of n-shape curve at the second phase of international trade. At the end of dual economy the labor transition effect is zero due to the end of transiting of labor force. The factor income effect of FDI is negagtive at the first phase of dual economy and then turns to be positive at the second phase. The labor transition effect of FDI is negative at the first phase of dual economy and accelerates the formation of n-shape curve at the second phase of international trade. At the end of dual economy the labor transition effect is zero due to the end of transiting of labor force. At the last part the paper does some empirical study using cross-country data and gives some political advice to stabilize labor's share.
引文
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