房地产开发项目前期阶段风险识别与评估分析管理研究
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摘要
房地产开发项目因其占用资金大,开发时间周期长等特点具有高度复杂性及风险性,且风险呈动态变化。
房地产开发项目一般包括项目开发前期阶段、项目建设施工管理阶段、租售管理阶段。在各个不同的阶段,始终存在着不同的风险,但由于房地产项目开发各个阶段在时间上是连续性的,使得房地产开发项目前期阶段的风险识别、分析评估管理尤为重要。是否采用科学有效的风险管理体系来系统的管理、应对项目开发前期的各种风险,将直接关系到整个房地产投资项目能否继续、甚至关系到整个房地产开发公司的成败。而要建立科学、有效的房地产开发前期阶段的风险管理体系,则要求以科学、系统的房地产开发项目前期阶段风险识别与评估分析管理体系为基础。风险控制及管理成功、有序的房地产开发项目市场,不但有利于房地产开发投资企业避免企业投资利益受损,而且有利于整个国家的经济稳定及发展。因此,对房地产开发项目前期阶段风险识别、评估分析管理的研究对整个房地产开发项目及房地产行业有着重要而深远的意义。
本文以G房地产开发公司YLB开发项目为例,在参考国内外相关房地产开发项目风险管理研究理论的基础上,用层次分析法(AHP)对YLB项目前期阶段的风险进行识别、评估分析,为房地产开发企业对项目开发前期阶段的风险识别、评估提供了的可行的参考依据。
Real estate development projects are highly complex and risky because of its characteristics of massive use of funds and long cycle of development period etc. And the risks during the process of real estate project development usually change dynamically.
Real estate development projects generally include pro-construction stage, project construction management stage and rental management stage. And different risks always emerge in each of the three stages. But because the three real estate project development phases are continuous in time, the risk identification, analysis and evaluation management in the early stage of real estate development projects is particularly important. It will directly affect the success of the entire real estate investment project, even result in failure of the entire real estate development company that whether to adopt a scientific and effective risk management system to manage and control various risks in the pre-construction stage of real estate development project. To establish a scientific, effective risk management system on the pre-construction stage of real estate development project, the precondition is to set up a scientific, effective and systematic risk identification and evaluation management system in the early stage of real estate development projects. What's more, the orderly real estate development market with well-controlled risk management not only benefit to real estate development enterprises to avoid investment interests damaged, but also is conducive to the whole country's economic stability and development. Therefore, the research on risk identification, evaluation and analysis management in the pre-construction stage of real estate project development has an important and far-reaching significance.
On the basis of the reference to relevant domestic and foreign theories of real estate development project risk management, this article adopts analytic hierarchy process (AHP) on the pre-construction stages risk identification, evaluation and analysis management by taking the real estate development project YLB in company G as an example. The article shows that it a feasible approach for a real estate development project to use AHP to evaluate and analysis the risk in pre-construction stage.
房地产开发项目一般包括项目开发前期阶段、项目建设施工管理阶段、租售管理阶段。在各个不同的阶段,始终存在着不同的风险,但由于房地产项目开发各个阶段在时间上是连续性的,使得房地产开发项目前期阶段的风险识别、分析评估管理尤为重要。是否采用科学有效的风险管理体系来系统的管理、应对项目开发前期的各种风险,将直接关系到整个房地产投资项目能否继续、甚至关系到整个房地产开发公司的成败。而要建立科学、有效的房地产开发前期阶段的风险管理体系,则要求以科学、系统的房地产开发项目前期阶段风险识别与评估分析管理体系为基础。风险控制及管理成功、有序的房地产开发项目市场,不但有利于房地产开发投资企业避免企业投资利益受损,而且有利于整个国家的经济稳定及发展。因此,对房地产开发项目前期阶段风险识别、评估分析管理的研究对整个房地产开发项目及房地产行业有着重要而深远的意义。
本文以G房地产开发公司YLB开发项目为例,在参考国内外相关房地产开发项目风险管理研究理论的基础上,用层次分析法(AHP)对YLB项目前期阶段的风险进行识别、评估分析,为房地产开发企业对项目开发前期阶段的风险识别、评估提供了的可行的参考依据。
Real estate development projects are highly complex and risky because of its characteristics of massive use of funds and long cycle of development period etc. And the risks during the process of real estate project development usually change dynamically.
Real estate development projects generally include pro-construction stage, project construction management stage and rental management stage. And different risks always emerge in each of the three stages. But because the three real estate project development phases are continuous in time, the risk identification, analysis and evaluation management in the early stage of real estate development projects is particularly important. It will directly affect the success of the entire real estate investment project, even result in failure of the entire real estate development company that whether to adopt a scientific and effective risk management system to manage and control various risks in the pre-construction stage of real estate development project. To establish a scientific, effective risk management system on the pre-construction stage of real estate development project, the precondition is to set up a scientific, effective and systematic risk identification and evaluation management system in the early stage of real estate development projects. What's more, the orderly real estate development market with well-controlled risk management not only benefit to real estate development enterprises to avoid investment interests damaged, but also is conducive to the whole country's economic stability and development. Therefore, the research on risk identification, evaluation and analysis management in the pre-construction stage of real estate project development has an important and far-reaching significance.
On the basis of the reference to relevant domestic and foreign theories of real estate development project risk management, this article adopts analytic hierarchy process (AHP) on the pre-construction stages risk identification, evaluation and analysis management by taking the real estate development project YLB in company G as an example. The article shows that it a feasible approach for a real estate development project to use AHP to evaluate and analysis the risk in pre-construction stage.
引文
[1]王家远,刘春乐.建设项目风险管理[M].中国水利水电出版社,2004.15-18
[2]Boehm John. M. Nicholas.面向商务和技术的项目管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.307-334
[3]Fairley V. M. Rao. Tuanala. Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to Manage Cost Risk of EHN.Transmission Line Project.1999, vol 17, No4:223-235
[4]C. M Tam. Non-structural Fuzzy Decision Support System for Evaluation of Construction Safety Management System [J]. International Journal of Project. 2002, vol 20:303-313
[5]Hofer, Eduard. Sensitivity Analysis in the Context of Uncertainty Analysis for Computationally Intensive Models.Computer Physics Communication.1999, 117(1-2):21-34
[6]乌尔里希,贝克等。自由与资本主义[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社.2001：119-120
[7]Yates, Stone. Risk Appraisal [A] In J. F. Yates(Eds.). Risk Taking Behavior [C]. New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd..1992:387-408
[8]汪忠,黄瑞华.国外风险管理研究的理论、方法及其进展.外国经济与管理.2005,27(2)：26-27
[9]苗晋平.现代房地产投资管理[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2005.3.
[10]李启明,李心丹,沈杰,陆惠民.房地产投资风险与决策.南京：东南大学出版,1995.45-46
[11]Klein, Jonathan H, Cork, Robin B. An Approach to Technical Risk Assessment [J]. International Journal of Project Management.1998,16(6):345-351
[12]Paul R, Garvey P R, Lansdowne Z E. Risk Matrix:an Approach for Identifying, Assessing, and Ranking Program Risks [J]. Air Force Journal of Logistics.1998, 25:16-19
[13]李正.投资的经济效果及其风险分析[J].北京水利电力经济学报.1987,24(8)：25-28
[14]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京：机械工业出版社,1987.161-163
[15]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济出版社,1983,3(4)：69-74
[16]王晋.商业地产开发模式的比较与分析.经济论坛.2006,(1)：18-23
[17]彭志奇.房地产开发前期风险决策与组合投资分析[D].北京：北京科技大学博士论文,2001.
[18]孙晓.政府投资工程项目管理模式设计.中国投资.2003,3
[19]石海均.房地产投资分析.大连：大连理工大学出版社,1994.186-191
[20]张强.决策理论与方法.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2009
[21]刘一丁,王军.模糊评价法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用.辽宁石油化工大学学报.2010,第30卷第1期
[22]马霞霞,王文进,余梁蜀.基于AHP的房地产投资风险评价及应用.水利与建筑工程学报.2009,12
[23]陈峰.中国房地产风险预警系统的缺陷及改进思路.统计研究.2008,12
[24]李柏年.模糊数学及其应用.合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007
[25]华建革.基于模糊层次分析法的建筑企业开发房产战略风险度量.江苏建筑.2009
[26]蒋根谋,胡振鹏,金峻炎.基于模拟技术和AHP的房地产项目风险的定量评估.天津城市建设学院学报.2009,15(2)
[27]Cook Peter. Formalized Risk Management:Vital Tool for Project-And Business Success. Cost Engineering (Morgantown, West Virginia) 2005.
[28]AviadShapira, M. ASCE, Marat Goldenberg. AHP-Based Equipment Selection Model for Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2005,12
[29]Carbone Thomas A., Tippett Donald D. Project RiskManagementUsing the Project Risk FMEA. Engineering ManagementJournal. Dec2004, Vol.16
[30]Wenzhe Tang, MaoshanQiang, Duffield Colin F., Young David M., Youmei Lu. Risk Management in the Chinese Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering &Management. Dec 2007, Vol.133
[31]Teuten Peter C. The Top Ten Mistakes in Ri skManagement. Financial Executive. Sep 2005, Vol.21.Issue 7
[32]Cook, Peter. Formalized Risk Management:Vital Tool for Project-and Business-Success. Cost Engineering. August 2005, Vol.47 Issue 8
[33]赵新泉,彭勇行.管理决策分析.北京：科学出版社,2008
[34]Alexander, Gordon. From Markowitz to modern riskmanagement. European Journal of Finance. July 2009, Vol.15 Issue 5/6
[35]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选.北京：清华大学出版社,2005
[36]魏钦才.房地产开发项目风险及其对策.华东经济管理.2008,第22卷第1期
[37]李宁远,翁彩红.房地产项目开发风险管理[J].国外建材科技.2004,第25卷第2期
[38]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用.西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2005,第37卷第1期,
[39]John Moteff. Risk Management and Critical Infrastructure Protection: Assessing, Integrating, and Managing Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences Washington DC:Congressional Research Service.2005
[40]Flyvbjerg, Bent. From Nobel Prize to Project Management:Getting Risks Right (PDF). Project Management Journal. Project Management Institute. August 2006, 37 (3):5-15
[41]王明和,刘培德,欧国立。一种基于不确定语言量的房地产投资风险评价方法.北京交通大学学报：社会科学版.2011,10(4)
[2]Boehm John. M. Nicholas.面向商务和技术的项目管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000.307-334
[3]Fairley V. M. Rao. Tuanala. Applying a Risk Management Process (RMP) to Manage Cost Risk of EHN.Transmission Line Project.1999, vol 17, No4:223-235
[4]C. M Tam. Non-structural Fuzzy Decision Support System for Evaluation of Construction Safety Management System [J]. International Journal of Project. 2002, vol 20:303-313
[5]Hofer, Eduard. Sensitivity Analysis in the Context of Uncertainty Analysis for Computationally Intensive Models.Computer Physics Communication.1999, 117(1-2):21-34
[6]乌尔里希,贝克等。自由与资本主义[M].杭州：浙江人民出版社.2001：119-120
[7]Yates, Stone. Risk Appraisal [A] In J. F. Yates(Eds.). Risk Taking Behavior [C]. New York:John Wiley & Sons Ltd..1992:387-408
[8]汪忠,黄瑞华.国外风险管理研究的理论、方法及其进展.外国经济与管理.2005,27(2)：26-27
[9]苗晋平.现代房地产投资管理[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2005.3.
[10]李启明,李心丹,沈杰,陆惠民.房地产投资风险与决策.南京：东南大学出版,1995.45-46
[11]Klein, Jonathan H, Cork, Robin B. An Approach to Technical Risk Assessment [J]. International Journal of Project Management.1998,16(6):345-351
[12]Paul R, Garvey P R, Lansdowne Z E. Risk Matrix:an Approach for Identifying, Assessing, and Ranking Program Risks [J]. Air Force Journal of Logistics.1998, 25:16-19
[13]李正.投资的经济效果及其风险分析[J].北京水利电力经济学报.1987,24(8)：25-28
[14]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京：机械工业出版社,1987.161-163
[15]李存斌.建设项目经济效果风险分析的函数偏导法[J].技术经济出版社,1983,3(4)：69-74
[16]王晋.商业地产开发模式的比较与分析.经济论坛.2006,(1)：18-23
[17]彭志奇.房地产开发前期风险决策与组合投资分析[D].北京：北京科技大学博士论文,2001.
[18]孙晓.政府投资工程项目管理模式设计.中国投资.2003,3
[19]石海均.房地产投资分析.大连：大连理工大学出版社,1994.186-191
[20]张强.决策理论与方法.大连：东北财经大学出版社,2009
[21]刘一丁,王军.模糊评价法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用.辽宁石油化工大学学报.2010,第30卷第1期
[22]马霞霞,王文进,余梁蜀.基于AHP的房地产投资风险评价及应用.水利与建筑工程学报.2009,12
[23]陈峰.中国房地产风险预警系统的缺陷及改进思路.统计研究.2008,12
[24]李柏年.模糊数学及其应用.合肥：合肥工业大学出版社,2007
[25]华建革.基于模糊层次分析法的建筑企业开发房产战略风险度量.江苏建筑.2009
[26]蒋根谋,胡振鹏,金峻炎.基于模拟技术和AHP的房地产项目风险的定量评估.天津城市建设学院学报.2009,15(2)
[27]Cook Peter. Formalized Risk Management:Vital Tool for Project-And Business Success. Cost Engineering (Morgantown, West Virginia) 2005.
[28]AviadShapira, M. ASCE, Marat Goldenberg. AHP-Based Equipment Selection Model for Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 2005,12
[29]Carbone Thomas A., Tippett Donald D. Project RiskManagementUsing the Project Risk FMEA. Engineering ManagementJournal. Dec2004, Vol.16
[30]Wenzhe Tang, MaoshanQiang, Duffield Colin F., Young David M., Youmei Lu. Risk Management in the Chinese Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering &Management. Dec 2007, Vol.133
[31]Teuten Peter C. The Top Ten Mistakes in Ri skManagement. Financial Executive. Sep 2005, Vol.21.Issue 7
[32]Cook, Peter. Formalized Risk Management:Vital Tool for Project-and Business-Success. Cost Engineering. August 2005, Vol.47 Issue 8
[33]赵新泉,彭勇行.管理决策分析.北京：科学出版社,2008
[34]Alexander, Gordon. From Markowitz to modern riskmanagement. European Journal of Finance. July 2009, Vol.15 Issue 5/6
[35]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选.北京：清华大学出版社,2005
[36]魏钦才.房地产开发项目风险及其对策.华东经济管理.2008,第22卷第1期
[37]李宁远,翁彩红.房地产项目开发风险管理[J].国外建材科技.2004,第25卷第2期
[38]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用.西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版).2005,第37卷第1期,
[39]John Moteff. Risk Management and Critical Infrastructure Protection: Assessing, Integrating, and Managing Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences Washington DC:Congressional Research Service.2005
[40]Flyvbjerg, Bent. From Nobel Prize to Project Management:Getting Risks Right (PDF). Project Management Journal. Project Management Institute. August 2006, 37 (3):5-15
[41]王明和,刘培德,欧国立。一种基于不确定语言量的房地产投资风险评价方法.北京交通大学学报：社会科学版.2011,10(4)