基于概率统计的层状岩体裂隙特征分析及模拟
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摘要
针对解决科学实践问题方法的研究,自人类诞生以来就从未间断。裂隙岩体的非均质性特征,可以是随机的,也或是函数可以描述的,用哪种方式,取决于它的特征参数的平均水平随机波动性,或特征参数的函数变化形式可表达性。李华晔曾指出,裂隙岩体存在着一种无法利用因果关系加以严格控制或准确预测的现象,对于这种现象只能进行综合分析,剔除某些因素的影响而从中归纳出某些规律来。显然,裂隙岩体的离散性是可用统计函数表示的。
本文以锦屏一级水电站坝区为研究对象,针对目前在层状岩体研究中面临的问题,以工程水文地质科学理论为指导,运用水文地质学、岩体力学、构造地质学等地球科学理论方法,结合概率统计、系统思维等数学和社会学知识,研究层状岩体的裂隙特征及其离散模型的建模方法,并探讨了离散模型裂隙连通性计算等。主要研究内容与结论为：
1、研究区层状岩体可分为三类
研究区发育中上三叠统杂谷脑组大理岩(T2_3Z2)和砂板岩(T2_3Z3)岩性及其组合关系认识,大理岩据颜色、结构及工程地质特性可分为8小层,砂板岩据互层关系分为4小层。遵照陈志坚对层状岩体分类的研究理论,结合野外实测裂隙发育及构造分布规律的综合分析,研究区中上三叠统杂谷脑组岩层可以划分为A、C、E三类。A类岩体中裂隙多表现为闭合隐裂隙,且层面优势作用明显,主要地层为T2-3Z3(3)、T2-3Z3(1);C类岩体中裂隙发育不受软岩限制,间距多大于50厘米,但切割深度较大,延伸较长,主要地层为TZ-3Z2(3)～2(8)；E类岩体中裂隙多呈闭合隐裂隙,层面优势作用不明显,地层主要为T2-3Z2(1)～2(2)。
2、研究区岩体裂隙发育特征与统计特征
(1)优势裂隙组：经测量统计研究区主要发育Ⅴ级结构面,基于组裂隙分布密度,并结合前人已有研究成果,确定五组优势裂隙组；其中,左岸两组：①100～175°∠40～75°(SL组)；②344～45°∠70～90°(Ⅲ-1组)；右岸三组：③120～188°∠55～90°(Ⅳ组)；④265～350°∠20～60°(Ⅰ组)；⑤188～230°∠50～90°(Ⅲ-2组)。
(2)裂隙间距：针对裂隙间距数据正偏特点,引入了探索性数据分析方法,用箱线图图示数据分布类型、数据分析过程和数据分析结果,提出用中值代替均值提供模型参数的思想,并参照方差概念和求算方法,定义了描述中值波动大小的中方差参数,给出了其求解公式和95%置信区间的求算法则。基于新方法的分析,得出研究区各优势组裂隙间距数据均呈负指数分布,间距均在50cm以内,据岩石与岩体鉴定和描述标准,确定裂隙密度分级为“Ⅳ级——发育”。
(3)裂隙隙宽：用频数直方图图示分析法,得出各优势裂隙组隙宽分布类型均为负指数；经统计隙宽均值为0.33mm；据ISRM提出的裂隙隙宽分级标准,可描述为“部分张开”,其状态为“闭合”,相对渗透系数区间为“10-4～10-2cm/s”。结合野外实践的感性认识,用灰色系统初略探讨了隙宽数据的灰色属性和室内实验方法。
(4)裂隙迹长：各优势裂隙组裂隙平均迹长,用无限长窗口广义H-H迹长估计公式估算,均在3～4m之间,据ISRM(国际岩石力学学会)提出的结构面连续性分级标准,属中等连续性；用频数直方图图示,SL和Ⅲ-1两组迹长数据呈正态分布,其余各组均属对数正态分布。
3、研究区局域裂隙离散网络可视化及分析
运用GeneralBlock软件再现了左右岸小范围内的裂隙三维网络,并采用“由单一到组合,层层深入”的分析思想,设计了三种方案的裂隙三维网络,对岩体裂隙发育规律、分布特征及其连通性做了初步探讨。
(1)左岸：两组裂隙只能在模拟范围的有限局部区域内形成有效连通,且随机性很大。SL组裂隙延仲不如Ⅲ-1组裂隙,且间距大,分布零散；有效的连通网络主要出现在Ⅲ-1组发育的密集区,此时SL组裂隙起导水作用。通过统计其代表性模型剖面(Y-Z面)和平面(X-Y面)内的裂隙交叉点数,计算得出每平方米的交叉点个数,为0.01。
(2)右岸：三组优势裂隙组构建的裂隙网络,连通性很好。剖面上Ⅳ组和Ⅲ-2组组成了条带状裂隙网络,且伴随Ⅰ组与Ⅳ组裂隙的共生,放大了该特征；平面上Ⅳ组裂隙从右上贯通至左下,Ⅰ和Ⅲ-2组合成“#”型分布于其间。从对裂隙网络的作用分析,Ⅳ组裂隙既是裂隙网络的集水廊道,又是导水通道；1组既是集水廊道,也是贮水空间；Ⅲ-2组裂隙相比于其它两组裂隙,平面和剖面都反映其不发育,主要起贮水作用。经计算,得出右岸每平方米的交叉点个数,为0.2,其连通程度远远大于左岸。
4、裂隙网络控制参数的敏感性分析
根据GeneralBlock软件参数输入特点,设计了控制裂隙组产状和半径参数波动的裂隙模型生成方案,探讨了裂隙在模拟区内的分布规律及连通性变化趋势。
(1)直接以实测裂隙各特征数据的统计结果输入(A方案),成果图显示单一裂隙组随机波动大,组间裂隙形成交叉,与理论分析和野外观测均有差异；
(2)产状参数保持稳定,控制迹长的半径参数适当加大波动(A-1方案),裂隙分布规律明显,且符合理论与野外观察;迹长波动,不影响模拟区内裂隙分布密集区和稀疏区的位置,但增加了裂隙网络的连通程度；
(3)半径保持稳定,产状参数用四分位数扩大数据波动范围(A-2方案),不但使裂隙分布规律改变,原先的密集区可变为稀疏区,原先的稀疏区可能成了密集区,也会提升模拟区的连通性能,但与野外观察略有出入；
(4)总结认为,半径波动只改变单一裂隙,产状波动既影响整个模拟区,也改变单一裂隙几何特征,是相当于增加了裂隙组数,因此,产状是构建模型的关键因子。不同成因的裂隙,在模拟时应该采用不同的控制方法,对于倾角较陡的构造与卸荷裂隙,由于实测时产状误差小,迹长误差大,应该控制产状,半径适当波动；而顺层裂隙组,则应该相反。基于裂隙分布特征统计分析的模型建立,其合理性应该与实际状况(如开挖平硐)进行对比检验。
本文主要创新：(1)对描述裂隙特征参数的实测数据,根据数据分布类型采用了不同的统计分析方法,获取裂隙参数统计值；(2)基于裂隙参数统计成果,建立了“由单一裂隙组到复杂网络”的局域裂隙离散网络模拟方法,用裂隙交叉数描述模型的连通性,并探讨了裂隙参数对离散网络模型连通性的影响。
For solving the problems of scientific practicel method, since human birth has never stopped Heterogeneity of fractured rock mass characteristics, can be random or a function can also be described, in what way, depends on the parameters of its average level of random fluctuation, or the parameters can be expressed as a function of the variations. Li Huaye pointed out, there was a fractured rock can not be used causal relationship to strictly controlled or accurately predicted the phenomenon, this phenomenon can only be for a comprehensive analysis, excludes certain factors, summarizes some of the law from which. Obviously, the discrete nature of fractured rock is expressed statistical functions available.
In this paper, as the research object of Jinping Hydropower Station, according to the current problems in the study of the rockmass, in engineering science as a guide hydrogeology, useing of hydrogeology, rock mechanics, structure theory of geology, earth science, combining probability, statistics, and philosophy of mathematics and sociology, studies the fracture characteristics of stratified rock and the discrete model modeling methods in the construction, connectivity calculation; obtains the following main conclusions:
1,The stratified rockmass in the study area can be divided into three types
Based on the understanding of the marble and slate rock on the sand or their combinations relation in the study area,Marbles can be divided into 8 small layer by color, structure and geological features, sandy slate can be divided into 4 small layer of stratified rock mass classification.According to the interbedded between,in accordance with Chen Zhijian's theory on the stratified rockmass, with distribution of crack development and construction of an integrated analysis of Study area,12 small layer by divided into A, C, E three types. The fractures in rock mass performance of hidden cracks closed of A, and the level of superiority obvious, the main grounds are T2-3Z3(3), T2-3Z3(1); C class from the soft rock in the fractured rock restrictions, spacing much in the 50 cm, but a larger depth of cut, a longer extension,with the main ground for the T2-3Z2(3)～2(8); E Class closes mostly hidden cracks in rock fissures, level of advantage is not obvious, the main formation T2-3Z2(1)～2(2).
2, Fractured characteristics of the study area
(1)The dominant fracture groups:In the study area, the paper mainly develops V grade structural surface, based on the density of fractures in each group, combins with previous research results, thinks that the dominant fracture groups are five; the left bank have two groups:①100～175°∠40～75°(SL);②344～45°∠70～90°(Ⅲ-1);the right bank have three groups:③120～188°∠55～90°(Ⅳ);④265～350°∠20～60°(Ⅰ);⑤188～230°∠50～90°(Ⅲ-2).
(2) Fracture spacing:In view of the characteristics of crack spacing data, the paper introducts the exploratory data analysis method, data distribution shows, data analysis and data analysis results, by boxes-chart;and provids the median instead of the mean, refers to the variance and the calculation,defines the variance parameters to describe the fluctuations of the median,gives the formula and the calcalation method of 95% confidence interval. Based on the new method, in the study area, the data of the dominant fracture sets shows a negative exponential distribution,spacing are less than 50cm, confirmation crack density rating of "Ⅳ-development" by the identification and description standards of its rocks and rock.
(3)Fracture aperture:the dominant fracture of wide data gap fracture group, with the frequency histogram icon, are negative exponential distribution,with the statistical mean gap width of 0.33mm, according to ISRM classification standard fracture, can be described "partially open", and its status is "closed", the relative permeability "10-4～10-2cm/s".With the Perceptual field, talks about the data attributes and laboratory methods of the grey system.
(4)Trace length:the mean trace length of the dominant fracture, with an infinite window, HH trace length are between 3～4m, according to ISRM proposed the grading standards of the surface continuity of the structure, is a continuous medium sex; with frequency histogram icon, SL andⅢ-1 trace length showed normal distribution, other groups are lognormal.
3, The study area local discrete fracture network visualization and analysis
Using GeneralBlock software, reproducted the fracture three-dimensional network of the banks of in small-scale, and using the theought of "from a single to the combination", designs three dimensional fracture network,and does a detailed analysis of rock mass fracture law,distribution and its connectivity.
(1)Left:two cracks form an effective connectivity only a limited range of local connectivity within the region,and very random. SL has more crack extension and the spacing thanⅢ-1, scattered distribution; the effective connectivity network is seen inⅢ-1 intensive development zone,SL conductivity effect.Type model through statistical profile of their representatives (Y-Z) and the plane (X-Y) fracture,calculats the number of intersections per square meter, is 0.01.
(2)Right:The crack fracture network concludsed of three dominant groups has more connectivity, the fracture network characteristics ofⅣandⅢ-2 of the profile composition is significantly, and withⅠandⅣsymbiotic crack, amplies the features;Ⅳplays through upper-right to down-left,ⅠandⅢ-2 portfolie a "#" distribution in the meantime. From the role of fracture network,Ⅳfracture sets both the catchment corridor fracture network, but also guides the water channel; I is both a watershed corridor, but also storages space;III-2 compared to other groups,mainly froms the water effect. The intersection number per-square meter of the right bank, is 0.2, and its connectivity is far greater than the left bank.
4,The fracture network control parameter sensitivity analysis
According to GeneralBlock software, designs the fracture model generation program of the control fracture occurrence and the radius parameter fluctuations, discusses the distribution and connectivity trends.
(1)Inputs the statistical results of the measured data directly (A program), the results chart shows a large single fracture random fluctuations remarkably, fissure between the two groups form a cross, and are inconsistent with the theory and field observations;
(2)The occurrence parameters remains stable, the radius of the control parameters of trace length increases volatility (A-1 program), the fracture distribution significantly, and in accordance with theory and field observations; trace length fluctuations, does not affect the simulation of dense and sparse fracture zone area, but will increase the network connectivity;
(3)The radius keeps stable and occurrence parameter fluctuations (A-2 program), not only change the distribution of cracks, the original dense areas become sparse areas, the original sparse area become a concentrated area, will also enhance the connectivity of simulation region performance, but a slight discrepancy with the field observations;
(4)In concluded, that radius fluctuations only change a single fracture fluctuations,not only effect the simulation area, but also change a single fracture geometry is tantamount to increasing the number of the fracture group, the occurrence is the key factor to build the models. Different fracture should be used different control methods of the factor in the simulation, the construction of steep dip and unloading fissures,because the error is small and the trace length error, should control the occurrence, the radius appropriatly fluctuate; and smooth layer fracture should be the opposite.
The major innovations:(1)the measured data of the fracture characteristic parameters, according to their different distribution types of data using different statistical methods;(2)based on data analysis, bulids a set of the discrete model simulation program to control parameters, explores the complex models and the sensitivity analysis method of its parameters.
本文以锦屏一级水电站坝区为研究对象,针对目前在层状岩体研究中面临的问题,以工程水文地质科学理论为指导,运用水文地质学、岩体力学、构造地质学等地球科学理论方法,结合概率统计、系统思维等数学和社会学知识,研究层状岩体的裂隙特征及其离散模型的建模方法,并探讨了离散模型裂隙连通性计算等。主要研究内容与结论为：
1、研究区层状岩体可分为三类
研究区发育中上三叠统杂谷脑组大理岩(T2_3Z2)和砂板岩(T2_3Z3)岩性及其组合关系认识,大理岩据颜色、结构及工程地质特性可分为8小层,砂板岩据互层关系分为4小层。遵照陈志坚对层状岩体分类的研究理论,结合野外实测裂隙发育及构造分布规律的综合分析,研究区中上三叠统杂谷脑组岩层可以划分为A、C、E三类。A类岩体中裂隙多表现为闭合隐裂隙,且层面优势作用明显,主要地层为T2-3Z3(3)、T2-3Z3(1);C类岩体中裂隙发育不受软岩限制,间距多大于50厘米,但切割深度较大,延伸较长,主要地层为TZ-3Z2(3)～2(8)；E类岩体中裂隙多呈闭合隐裂隙,层面优势作用不明显,地层主要为T2-3Z2(1)～2(2)。
2、研究区岩体裂隙发育特征与统计特征
(1)优势裂隙组：经测量统计研究区主要发育Ⅴ级结构面,基于组裂隙分布密度,并结合前人已有研究成果,确定五组优势裂隙组；其中,左岸两组：①100～175°∠40～75°(SL组)；②344～45°∠70～90°(Ⅲ-1组)；右岸三组：③120～188°∠55～90°(Ⅳ组)；④265～350°∠20～60°(Ⅰ组)；⑤188～230°∠50～90°(Ⅲ-2组)。
(2)裂隙间距：针对裂隙间距数据正偏特点,引入了探索性数据分析方法,用箱线图图示数据分布类型、数据分析过程和数据分析结果,提出用中值代替均值提供模型参数的思想,并参照方差概念和求算方法,定义了描述中值波动大小的中方差参数,给出了其求解公式和95%置信区间的求算法则。基于新方法的分析,得出研究区各优势组裂隙间距数据均呈负指数分布,间距均在50cm以内,据岩石与岩体鉴定和描述标准,确定裂隙密度分级为“Ⅳ级——发育”。
(3)裂隙隙宽：用频数直方图图示分析法,得出各优势裂隙组隙宽分布类型均为负指数；经统计隙宽均值为0.33mm；据ISRM提出的裂隙隙宽分级标准,可描述为“部分张开”,其状态为“闭合”,相对渗透系数区间为“10-4～10-2cm/s”。结合野外实践的感性认识,用灰色系统初略探讨了隙宽数据的灰色属性和室内实验方法。
(4)裂隙迹长：各优势裂隙组裂隙平均迹长,用无限长窗口广义H-H迹长估计公式估算,均在3～4m之间,据ISRM(国际岩石力学学会)提出的结构面连续性分级标准,属中等连续性；用频数直方图图示,SL和Ⅲ-1两组迹长数据呈正态分布,其余各组均属对数正态分布。
3、研究区局域裂隙离散网络可视化及分析
运用GeneralBlock软件再现了左右岸小范围内的裂隙三维网络,并采用“由单一到组合,层层深入”的分析思想,设计了三种方案的裂隙三维网络,对岩体裂隙发育规律、分布特征及其连通性做了初步探讨。
(1)左岸：两组裂隙只能在模拟范围的有限局部区域内形成有效连通,且随机性很大。SL组裂隙延仲不如Ⅲ-1组裂隙,且间距大,分布零散；有效的连通网络主要出现在Ⅲ-1组发育的密集区,此时SL组裂隙起导水作用。通过统计其代表性模型剖面(Y-Z面)和平面(X-Y面)内的裂隙交叉点数,计算得出每平方米的交叉点个数,为0.01。
(2)右岸：三组优势裂隙组构建的裂隙网络,连通性很好。剖面上Ⅳ组和Ⅲ-2组组成了条带状裂隙网络,且伴随Ⅰ组与Ⅳ组裂隙的共生,放大了该特征；平面上Ⅳ组裂隙从右上贯通至左下,Ⅰ和Ⅲ-2组合成“#”型分布于其间。从对裂隙网络的作用分析,Ⅳ组裂隙既是裂隙网络的集水廊道,又是导水通道；1组既是集水廊道,也是贮水空间；Ⅲ-2组裂隙相比于其它两组裂隙,平面和剖面都反映其不发育,主要起贮水作用。经计算,得出右岸每平方米的交叉点个数,为0.2,其连通程度远远大于左岸。
4、裂隙网络控制参数的敏感性分析
根据GeneralBlock软件参数输入特点,设计了控制裂隙组产状和半径参数波动的裂隙模型生成方案,探讨了裂隙在模拟区内的分布规律及连通性变化趋势。
(1)直接以实测裂隙各特征数据的统计结果输入(A方案),成果图显示单一裂隙组随机波动大,组间裂隙形成交叉,与理论分析和野外观测均有差异；
(2)产状参数保持稳定,控制迹长的半径参数适当加大波动(A-1方案),裂隙分布规律明显,且符合理论与野外观察;迹长波动,不影响模拟区内裂隙分布密集区和稀疏区的位置,但增加了裂隙网络的连通程度；
(3)半径保持稳定,产状参数用四分位数扩大数据波动范围(A-2方案),不但使裂隙分布规律改变,原先的密集区可变为稀疏区,原先的稀疏区可能成了密集区,也会提升模拟区的连通性能,但与野外观察略有出入；
(4)总结认为,半径波动只改变单一裂隙,产状波动既影响整个模拟区,也改变单一裂隙几何特征,是相当于增加了裂隙组数,因此,产状是构建模型的关键因子。不同成因的裂隙,在模拟时应该采用不同的控制方法,对于倾角较陡的构造与卸荷裂隙,由于实测时产状误差小,迹长误差大,应该控制产状,半径适当波动；而顺层裂隙组,则应该相反。基于裂隙分布特征统计分析的模型建立,其合理性应该与实际状况(如开挖平硐)进行对比检验。
本文主要创新：(1)对描述裂隙特征参数的实测数据,根据数据分布类型采用了不同的统计分析方法,获取裂隙参数统计值；(2)基于裂隙参数统计成果,建立了“由单一裂隙组到复杂网络”的局域裂隙离散网络模拟方法,用裂隙交叉数描述模型的连通性,并探讨了裂隙参数对离散网络模型连通性的影响。
For solving the problems of scientific practicel method, since human birth has never stopped Heterogeneity of fractured rock mass characteristics, can be random or a function can also be described, in what way, depends on the parameters of its average level of random fluctuation, or the parameters can be expressed as a function of the variations. Li Huaye pointed out, there was a fractured rock can not be used causal relationship to strictly controlled or accurately predicted the phenomenon, this phenomenon can only be for a comprehensive analysis, excludes certain factors, summarizes some of the law from which. Obviously, the discrete nature of fractured rock is expressed statistical functions available.
In this paper, as the research object of Jinping Hydropower Station, according to the current problems in the study of the rockmass, in engineering science as a guide hydrogeology, useing of hydrogeology, rock mechanics, structure theory of geology, earth science, combining probability, statistics, and philosophy of mathematics and sociology, studies the fracture characteristics of stratified rock and the discrete model modeling methods in the construction, connectivity calculation; obtains the following main conclusions:
1,The stratified rockmass in the study area can be divided into three types
Based on the understanding of the marble and slate rock on the sand or their combinations relation in the study area,Marbles can be divided into 8 small layer by color, structure and geological features, sandy slate can be divided into 4 small layer of stratified rock mass classification.According to the interbedded between,in accordance with Chen Zhijian's theory on the stratified rockmass, with distribution of crack development and construction of an integrated analysis of Study area,12 small layer by divided into A, C, E three types. The fractures in rock mass performance of hidden cracks closed of A, and the level of superiority obvious, the main grounds are T2-3Z3(3), T2-3Z3(1); C class from the soft rock in the fractured rock restrictions, spacing much in the 50 cm, but a larger depth of cut, a longer extension,with the main ground for the T2-3Z2(3)～2(8); E Class closes mostly hidden cracks in rock fissures, level of advantage is not obvious, the main formation T2-3Z2(1)～2(2).
2, Fractured characteristics of the study area
(1)The dominant fracture groups:In the study area, the paper mainly develops V grade structural surface, based on the density of fractures in each group, combins with previous research results, thinks that the dominant fracture groups are five; the left bank have two groups:①100～175°∠40～75°(SL);②344～45°∠70～90°(Ⅲ-1);the right bank have three groups:③120～188°∠55～90°(Ⅳ);④265～350°∠20～60°(Ⅰ);⑤188～230°∠50～90°(Ⅲ-2).
(2) Fracture spacing:In view of the characteristics of crack spacing data, the paper introducts the exploratory data analysis method, data distribution shows, data analysis and data analysis results, by boxes-chart;and provids the median instead of the mean, refers to the variance and the calculation,defines the variance parameters to describe the fluctuations of the median,gives the formula and the calcalation method of 95% confidence interval. Based on the new method, in the study area, the data of the dominant fracture sets shows a negative exponential distribution,spacing are less than 50cm, confirmation crack density rating of "Ⅳ-development" by the identification and description standards of its rocks and rock.
(3)Fracture aperture:the dominant fracture of wide data gap fracture group, with the frequency histogram icon, are negative exponential distribution,with the statistical mean gap width of 0.33mm, according to ISRM classification standard fracture, can be described "partially open", and its status is "closed", the relative permeability "10-4～10-2cm/s".With the Perceptual field, talks about the data attributes and laboratory methods of the grey system.
(4)Trace length:the mean trace length of the dominant fracture, with an infinite window, HH trace length are between 3～4m, according to ISRM proposed the grading standards of the surface continuity of the structure, is a continuous medium sex; with frequency histogram icon, SL andⅢ-1 trace length showed normal distribution, other groups are lognormal.
3, The study area local discrete fracture network visualization and analysis
Using GeneralBlock software, reproducted the fracture three-dimensional network of the banks of in small-scale, and using the theought of "from a single to the combination", designs three dimensional fracture network,and does a detailed analysis of rock mass fracture law,distribution and its connectivity.
(1)Left:two cracks form an effective connectivity only a limited range of local connectivity within the region,and very random. SL has more crack extension and the spacing thanⅢ-1, scattered distribution; the effective connectivity network is seen inⅢ-1 intensive development zone,SL conductivity effect.Type model through statistical profile of their representatives (Y-Z) and the plane (X-Y) fracture,calculats the number of intersections per square meter, is 0.01.
(2)Right:The crack fracture network concludsed of three dominant groups has more connectivity, the fracture network characteristics ofⅣandⅢ-2 of the profile composition is significantly, and withⅠandⅣsymbiotic crack, amplies the features;Ⅳplays through upper-right to down-left,ⅠandⅢ-2 portfolie a "#" distribution in the meantime. From the role of fracture network,Ⅳfracture sets both the catchment corridor fracture network, but also guides the water channel; I is both a watershed corridor, but also storages space;III-2 compared to other groups,mainly froms the water effect. The intersection number per-square meter of the right bank, is 0.2, and its connectivity is far greater than the left bank.
4,The fracture network control parameter sensitivity analysis
According to GeneralBlock software, designs the fracture model generation program of the control fracture occurrence and the radius parameter fluctuations, discusses the distribution and connectivity trends.
(1)Inputs the statistical results of the measured data directly (A program), the results chart shows a large single fracture random fluctuations remarkably, fissure between the two groups form a cross, and are inconsistent with the theory and field observations;
(2)The occurrence parameters remains stable, the radius of the control parameters of trace length increases volatility (A-1 program), the fracture distribution significantly, and in accordance with theory and field observations; trace length fluctuations, does not affect the simulation of dense and sparse fracture zone area, but will increase the network connectivity;
(3)The radius keeps stable and occurrence parameter fluctuations (A-2 program), not only change the distribution of cracks, the original dense areas become sparse areas, the original sparse area become a concentrated area, will also enhance the connectivity of simulation region performance, but a slight discrepancy with the field observations;
(4)In concluded, that radius fluctuations only change a single fracture fluctuations,not only effect the simulation area, but also change a single fracture geometry is tantamount to increasing the number of the fracture group, the occurrence is the key factor to build the models. Different fracture should be used different control methods of the factor in the simulation, the construction of steep dip and unloading fissures,because the error is small and the trace length error, should control the occurrence, the radius appropriatly fluctuate; and smooth layer fracture should be the opposite.
The major innovations:(1)the measured data of the fracture characteristic parameters, according to their different distribution types of data using different statistical methods;(2)based on data analysis, bulids a set of the discrete model simulation program to control parameters, explores the complex models and the sensitivity analysis method of its parameters.
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