基于通用发生函数的边坡系统滑坡危险度研究
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摘要
本文通过概念阐述和方法对比,系统的指出了边坡稳定性分析、危险度分析评价以及边坡滑坡风险评价之间依次递进的关系,提出了有限差分数值模拟与边坡可靠度分析相结合的FLAC-统计矩分析方法,针对具有多条潜在滑动面的复杂边坡问题,首次将系统可靠性分析领域中的多状态系统的理论和方法引入边坡滑坡的危险度研究中,并对其中的一些问题做了深入的探讨和研究,主要包括：
(1)分析探讨了边坡稳定性分析、边坡滑坡危险度评价以及边坡滑坡风险评价之间依次递进的关系,将边坡稳定性分析以及边坡系统滑坡危险度评价作为重点,综述了边坡稳定性分析以及滑坡危险性分析的国内外研究现状,为本文分析方法及数学模型的提出打下基础。
(2)针对具有多个潜在滑动面的复杂边坡,首次将系统可靠性分析领域中的多状态系统理论及其通用发生函数方法引入此类边坡系统的滑坡危险度评价中,建立了多状态边坡系统模型以及基于通用发生函数的边坡系统滑坡危险度模型,将边坡滑坡的危险性进行数学表达,求出危险度这一定量指标。
(3)分析了边坡可靠度方法,如一次二阶矩法、蒙特卡洛模拟、响应面法、神经网络法以及统计矩法各自的优缺点以及适用范围,结合有限差分FLAC模拟,提出了基于FLAC-统计矩法的边坡稳定性分析方法,并根据边坡特点,建立了边坡可靠度分析的功能函数和极限状态方程,以此求出边坡系统的多条潜在滑动面的位置及其可靠指标和失效概率。
(4)进行工程实例研究,将所建立的多状态边坡系统模型以及基于通用发生函数的边坡滑坡危险度评价模型应用于广东省某露天矿边坡的危险度评价中,并运用Auto CAD等工具进行滑坡强度指标的分析和计算,最终完成边坡危险度定量值的计算并提出边坡维护及治理建议。
In this paper, by comparing related concepts and methods, the relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was illustrated. A new method for analysing slope stability called FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced. In order to analyse the slide hazard problem of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced. Besides, intensive research on some involved issues was conducted. The main content of the paper are as follows:
(1) the hierarchical relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was analysed and illustrated. This paper put the analysis of slope stability and slope system's slide hazard as a keystone, sumerized their current study situation. Based on this, the following analysis methods and mathematical model were put forward.
(2) For the high complexity of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced to assessment the hazard degree of slope system. Multi-state slope system model was put forward, and the hazard degree of slope slide was expressed by the model based on universal generating function.
(3) The methods for analysing slope reliability such as First order reliability method, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Response surface method, Neural network method and Rosenblueth method and their advantages, disadvantages, application were illustrated and compared. FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced to analyse slope stability. According to features of slope, the performance function and limit state equation were built, then, sliding surfaces'location, reliability index and failure probability were calculated.
(4) The study of project case was performed. The multi-state slope system model and slope slide hazard assessment model that based on universal generating function was applied to analyse hazard degree of a open slope in GuangDong province. In this process, other tool such as Auto CAD was used to calculate the intensity index of slide. Then, the hazard degree of slope slide was calculated. In the end, some advice for maintening and managing slope was put forward.
(1)分析探讨了边坡稳定性分析、边坡滑坡危险度评价以及边坡滑坡风险评价之间依次递进的关系,将边坡稳定性分析以及边坡系统滑坡危险度评价作为重点,综述了边坡稳定性分析以及滑坡危险性分析的国内外研究现状,为本文分析方法及数学模型的提出打下基础。
(2)针对具有多个潜在滑动面的复杂边坡,首次将系统可靠性分析领域中的多状态系统理论及其通用发生函数方法引入此类边坡系统的滑坡危险度评价中,建立了多状态边坡系统模型以及基于通用发生函数的边坡系统滑坡危险度模型,将边坡滑坡的危险性进行数学表达,求出危险度这一定量指标。
(3)分析了边坡可靠度方法,如一次二阶矩法、蒙特卡洛模拟、响应面法、神经网络法以及统计矩法各自的优缺点以及适用范围,结合有限差分FLAC模拟,提出了基于FLAC-统计矩法的边坡稳定性分析方法,并根据边坡特点,建立了边坡可靠度分析的功能函数和极限状态方程,以此求出边坡系统的多条潜在滑动面的位置及其可靠指标和失效概率。
(4)进行工程实例研究,将所建立的多状态边坡系统模型以及基于通用发生函数的边坡滑坡危险度评价模型应用于广东省某露天矿边坡的危险度评价中,并运用Auto CAD等工具进行滑坡强度指标的分析和计算,最终完成边坡危险度定量值的计算并提出边坡维护及治理建议。
In this paper, by comparing related concepts and methods, the relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was illustrated. A new method for analysing slope stability called FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced. In order to analyse the slide hazard problem of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced. Besides, intensive research on some involved issues was conducted. The main content of the paper are as follows:
(1) the hierarchical relationship among slope stability analysis, slope hazard assessment and risk assessment was analysed and illustrated. This paper put the analysis of slope stability and slope system's slide hazard as a keystone, sumerized their current study situation. Based on this, the following analysis methods and mathematical model were put forward.
(2) For the high complexity of slopes which contain multiple potential sliding surfaces, multi-state system theory and its methods were introduced to assessment the hazard degree of slope system. Multi-state slope system model was put forward, and the hazard degree of slope slide was expressed by the model based on universal generating function.
(3) The methods for analysing slope reliability such as First order reliability method, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Response surface method, Neural network method and Rosenblueth method and their advantages, disadvantages, application were illustrated and compared. FLAC-Statistical Moment method which combining finite difference numerical simulation and reliability method was also introduced to analyse slope stability. According to features of slope, the performance function and limit state equation were built, then, sliding surfaces'location, reliability index and failure probability were calculated.
(4) The study of project case was performed. The multi-state slope system model and slope slide hazard assessment model that based on universal generating function was applied to analyse hazard degree of a open slope in GuangDong province. In this process, other tool such as Auto CAD was used to calculate the intensity index of slide. Then, the hazard degree of slope slide was calculated. In the end, some advice for maintening and managing slope was put forward.
引文
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