中国石油进口依存度问题研究
|
摘要
石油进口依存度是指一个国家石油年净进口量占本国年石油消费量的比重,可以体现该国石油消费对国外石油的依赖程度。随着国民经济的飞速发展和环境承载能力的制约,以石油为主的能源需求缺口不断扩大,这将显著影响到一国政治、军事和经济安全。石油进口依存度问题越来越受到关注。
影响一国石油进口依存度高低的因素是该国石油净进口量和消费量。要降低一国石油进口依存度,一方面要增加该国石油产量,另一方面要降低石油消费量。
石油进口依存度会影响一国经济发展,也会对国家安安全、一国与其他国家政治经济关系产生影响。石油进口依存度对一国经济发展的影响体现在对一国外汇收支和外贸出口的影响；石油进口依存度对一国与其他国家政治经济关系的影响体现在对一国与其他石油消费大国的竞争关系和与其他大国政治关系的影响方面。
随着经济的发展,国内石油开采难度加大,石油产量增速缓慢,而石油消费需求不断增加,我国石油进口依存度成逐年攀升态势。口本、美国、德国等石油消费大国为降低其石油进口依存度,采取了各种措施,对于降低我国石油进口依存度有良好的借鉴意义。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
石油进口依存度国际比较。在分析世界石油探明储量情况及世界石油贸易特点与中国石油贸易现状的基础上,分析其他国家或地区石油进口依存度演变情况及各国或地区的石油安全战略和应对高石油依存度的措施,为降低中国石油进口依存度提供依据。
中国石油进口依存度的演进及成因。在分析中国石油供需现状的基础上,概括中国石油进口依存度偏高的原因及中国石油进口依存度的特点和发展趋势。
石油进口依存度的影响研究。在阐述石油进口依存度的概念、计算方法及影响因素的基础上,分析过高的石油进口依存度对石油供应安全、经济发展、国际关系等方面的影响。
中国石油进口依存度预测及对策。利用基于平均增长率法和灰色系统预测法的组合预测方法预测我国未来年份石油生产量和消费量,在此基础上,预测我国石油进口依存度。借鉴国外经验,提出降低中国石油进口依存度的措施。主要包括建立多元化的石油供给体系、建立合理的石油贸易机制、建立强大的石油战略储备体系、开发替代能源,建设节约型社会、构建健全的石油法律保障体系等方面。
The dependence degree on foreign oil refers to the proportion of a country's annual net oil imports in its annual oil consumption, and it can reflect the country's oil consumption degree of dependence on foreign oil. As the national economy maintaining high growth rate and the increasing environmental constraint, the energy consumption especially the petroleum consumption will increase, and the gap between oil supply and demand will increase year by year. The influence of oil on a country's economic, political and military will be more and more obvious. The dependence degree on foreign oil has attracted more and more attention.
The factors that affect the degree of dependence on foreign oil are net oil imports and oil consumption. In order to reduce the degree of dependence on oil imports, it is neet to increase the country's oil production and ruduce the oil consumption.
The dependence degree on foreign oil can affect a country's economic development, the national security and the relationship between a country and the other countries. The influence of the degree of dependence on oil imports on a country's economic development is reflected in the impact on the foreign exchange receipts and payments and the export. The influence of the degree of dependence on oil imports on the relationship between a country and the other countries is reflected in the competition with other large oil consuming countries and the political relations between China and other countries.
With the development of economy, the domestic oil exploitation becomes more and more difficult, the growth of oil production is slow, and the oil consumption is increasing, the degree of dependence on oil imports is rising. In order to reduce the degree of dependence on oil imports, The United States, Japan, Germany and other petroleum consumption country take a variety of measures, and they have great significance for reducing China's degree of dependence on oil imports.
The main contents of this research are as following:
The international comparison of degree of dependence on foreign oil is studied. In this chapter, on the basis of analysis of the world's proven oil reserves, the characteristics of the world oil trade and the current situation of China's petroleum trade, analyzed the changing of dependence degree on foreign oil of other countries and their petroleum security strategy and the measures for reducing the dependence degree on foreign oil. And it can provide basis for reducing China's dependence degree on foreign oil.
The reason for China's dependence degree on foreign oil is analyzed. Based on the analysis of present situation of Chinese petroleum supply and demand, discusses the reason for China's dependence degree on foreign oil, its characteristics and developing trend.
The influence on high dependence degree on oil imports is researched. On the basis of elaborating the concept, calculation method and influence factors of dependence degree on foreign oil, its influence on oil supply security, economic development, international relations is discussed.
China's dependence degreed on foreign oil is predicted. China's oil production and consumption are predicted by the combined predicting method based on the average growth rate method and grey system prediction method in the chapter. On this basis, the dependence degree on foreign oil is predicted. According to the experiences of other countries, the measures of reducing China's dependence on oil imports are porposed. The main measures include the establishment of diversified supply system, the establishment of a reasonable oil trade mechanism, building up strategic oil reserve system, the development of alternative energy sources, the construction of a conservation-oriented society, and the construction of a sound legal system of oil, and so on.
影响一国石油进口依存度高低的因素是该国石油净进口量和消费量。要降低一国石油进口依存度,一方面要增加该国石油产量,另一方面要降低石油消费量。
石油进口依存度会影响一国经济发展,也会对国家安安全、一国与其他国家政治经济关系产生影响。石油进口依存度对一国经济发展的影响体现在对一国外汇收支和外贸出口的影响；石油进口依存度对一国与其他国家政治经济关系的影响体现在对一国与其他石油消费大国的竞争关系和与其他大国政治关系的影响方面。
随着经济的发展,国内石油开采难度加大,石油产量增速缓慢,而石油消费需求不断增加,我国石油进口依存度成逐年攀升态势。口本、美国、德国等石油消费大国为降低其石油进口依存度,采取了各种措施,对于降低我国石油进口依存度有良好的借鉴意义。
本文的主要研究内容如下：
石油进口依存度国际比较。在分析世界石油探明储量情况及世界石油贸易特点与中国石油贸易现状的基础上,分析其他国家或地区石油进口依存度演变情况及各国或地区的石油安全战略和应对高石油依存度的措施,为降低中国石油进口依存度提供依据。
中国石油进口依存度的演进及成因。在分析中国石油供需现状的基础上,概括中国石油进口依存度偏高的原因及中国石油进口依存度的特点和发展趋势。
石油进口依存度的影响研究。在阐述石油进口依存度的概念、计算方法及影响因素的基础上,分析过高的石油进口依存度对石油供应安全、经济发展、国际关系等方面的影响。
中国石油进口依存度预测及对策。利用基于平均增长率法和灰色系统预测法的组合预测方法预测我国未来年份石油生产量和消费量,在此基础上,预测我国石油进口依存度。借鉴国外经验,提出降低中国石油进口依存度的措施。主要包括建立多元化的石油供给体系、建立合理的石油贸易机制、建立强大的石油战略储备体系、开发替代能源,建设节约型社会、构建健全的石油法律保障体系等方面。
The dependence degree on foreign oil refers to the proportion of a country's annual net oil imports in its annual oil consumption, and it can reflect the country's oil consumption degree of dependence on foreign oil. As the national economy maintaining high growth rate and the increasing environmental constraint, the energy consumption especially the petroleum consumption will increase, and the gap between oil supply and demand will increase year by year. The influence of oil on a country's economic, political and military will be more and more obvious. The dependence degree on foreign oil has attracted more and more attention.
The factors that affect the degree of dependence on foreign oil are net oil imports and oil consumption. In order to reduce the degree of dependence on oil imports, it is neet to increase the country's oil production and ruduce the oil consumption.
The dependence degree on foreign oil can affect a country's economic development, the national security and the relationship between a country and the other countries. The influence of the degree of dependence on oil imports on a country's economic development is reflected in the impact on the foreign exchange receipts and payments and the export. The influence of the degree of dependence on oil imports on the relationship between a country and the other countries is reflected in the competition with other large oil consuming countries and the political relations between China and other countries.
With the development of economy, the domestic oil exploitation becomes more and more difficult, the growth of oil production is slow, and the oil consumption is increasing, the degree of dependence on oil imports is rising. In order to reduce the degree of dependence on oil imports, The United States, Japan, Germany and other petroleum consumption country take a variety of measures, and they have great significance for reducing China's degree of dependence on oil imports.
The main contents of this research are as following:
The international comparison of degree of dependence on foreign oil is studied. In this chapter, on the basis of analysis of the world's proven oil reserves, the characteristics of the world oil trade and the current situation of China's petroleum trade, analyzed the changing of dependence degree on foreign oil of other countries and their petroleum security strategy and the measures for reducing the dependence degree on foreign oil. And it can provide basis for reducing China's dependence degree on foreign oil.
The reason for China's dependence degree on foreign oil is analyzed. Based on the analysis of present situation of Chinese petroleum supply and demand, discusses the reason for China's dependence degree on foreign oil, its characteristics and developing trend.
The influence on high dependence degree on oil imports is researched. On the basis of elaborating the concept, calculation method and influence factors of dependence degree on foreign oil, its influence on oil supply security, economic development, international relations is discussed.
China's dependence degreed on foreign oil is predicted. China's oil production and consumption are predicted by the combined predicting method based on the average growth rate method and grey system prediction method in the chapter. On this basis, the dependence degree on foreign oil is predicted. According to the experiences of other countries, the measures of reducing China's dependence on oil imports are porposed. The main measures include the establishment of diversified supply system, the establishment of a reasonable oil trade mechanism, building up strategic oil reserve system, the development of alternative energy sources, the construction of a conservation-oriented society, and the construction of a sound legal system of oil, and so on.
引文
①BP(British Petroleum),英国石油集团公司。是世界上最大的石油和石化集团公司之一。由前英国石油、阿莫科、阿科和嘉实多等公司整合重组形成。
②丹尼尔·耶金.石油风云[M].上海：上海译文出版社,1997.
③莱昂纳尔多·毛杰里.石油!石油![M].上海：格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2008.
① Olav Bjerkholt,Qystein Oolsen and Jonvislie.Recent Modeling Approaches in Applied Energy Economics[M].Chapman and Hall Ltd.,1990.
② Robert G.ReeddⅢand Fereidun Fesharaki.The Oil Market in the 1990s-Challenges for the New Era[M].Westview Press,1989.
③保罗·罗伯茨.石油的终结：濒临危险的新世界[M].北京：中信出版社,2005.
① Phillip Andrews-Speed.Energy Policy and Regulation in the People's Republic of China[M].Kluwer Law,2003.
②Michael B.McElroy, Chris R Nielsen,and Peter Lydon.Energizing China:Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth[M].The Harvard University Committee on Environment,1998.
③张麦花,张业芬.我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势分析[J].辽宁经济,2006(3)：29-31.
④陆旸.我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2008(6)：45-50.
①张建伟.我国石油对外依存度分析与对策研究[J].商业文化,2012(7)：11-13.
②周亮亮.中国石油对外依存度高企的成因、影响及对策[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2012(4)：91-95.
③张抗.石油进口大幅增长对我国经济发展的影响分析[J].中外能源,2009(8)：11-14.
④李霞.中国石油对外依存度研究[J].经济研究导刊,2011(31)：171-172.
①童晓光,赵林等.对中国石油对外依存度问题的思考[J].经济与管理研究,2009(1)：60-67.
②何金祥.美国石油对外依存度的变化[J].国土资源情报,2006(5)：35-38.
③马冰.石油对外依存度的衡量指标——以美国为例[J].国土资源情报,2001(5)：40-45.
④崔荣国,刘树臣.矿产品对外依存度研究及初步测算[J].国土资源情报,2008(8)：39-43.
⑤何沙,吉安民等.基于我国石油对外依存度的石油安全策略研究[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版)：2011(3)：1-6.
①陈海涛.基于灰色系统理论的我国石油消费对外依存度预测[J].生态经济,2012(5)：103-106.
②查道炯.中国石油安全的国际政治经济学分析[M].北京：当代世界出版社,2005.
①徐晓慧.我国石油对外依存度分析[J].对外经贸实务,2010(11)：27-30.
②张抗,周芳.我国石油进口依存度和来源构成变化及启示[J].中外能源,2011(2)：8-17.
①张幼文.我国外贸依存度提高的影响与对策[J].国际贸易问题,2004(8)：20-22.
②庞博.我国对外贸易依存度过高的风险及调整对策[J].经济视觉,2005(7)：54-55.
③于海蓉,范晓军.外贸依存度提高对我国经济的影响及对策[J].山西财经大学学报(高等教育版),2007(1)：13-14.
④郑春梅.我国对外贸易依存度与实际汇率关系的实证研究[J].经济问题,2008(10)：24-25.
①黄彦,许统生.我国外贸依存度分析[J].当代财经,2003(4)：81-86.
②魏建国,曹爱萍.对中国对外贸易依存度的实证研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005(11)：35-41.
③张素芳,房剑.外贸依存度测算方法的改进及对中国外贸依存度的重新估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(6)：82-86.
④刘向尧.加工贸易与我国的外贸依存度[J].工业技术经济,2009(10)：60-71.
①张丽峰.中国能源供求预测模型及发展对策研究lD].北京：首都经济贸易大学,2006.
①张麦花,张亚芬.我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势分析[J].辽宁经济,2006(3)：29-31.
[1]李相远,李亮：《保障我国石油安全的对策和建议》,载《经济师》,2005(9)。
[2]李朴民：《中国应对高油价的选择》,载《国民经济管理》,2006(3)。
[3]朱成章：《把提高能源效率落实到实处》,载《节能与环保》,2006(4)。
[4]梁金修：《我国能源供需与新型工业化能源战略》,载《宏观经济管理》,2006(4)。
[5]仝秀华：《试论石油战略储备》,载《中国能源》,2003。
[6]黄建纲：《海湾国家与中国合作前景广阔》,载《经济日报》,2002(8)。
[7]舒先林、陈松林：《非洲石油与中国能源安全》,载《石油大学学报》(社会科学版),2004(5)。
[8]王海滨、吴磊：《中国的石油安全与地缘战略》,载《国际观察》,2002(2)。
[9]马卫锋：《构建石油金融体系：中国石油安全的战略选择》,载《资源科学》,2005(6)。
[10]韩学锋：《21世纪中国石油安全与中国中亚石油战略》,载《兰州学刊》,2004(5)。
[11]吴巧生：《中国能源战略评价》,载《中国工业经济》,2002(6)。
[12]朗一环,王礼茂：《国际安全新形势下的中国石油安全战略调整》,载《中国能源》,2008(1)。
[13]王礼茂：《资源安全的影响因素与评估指标》,载《自然科学学报》,2002(17)。
[14]张雷：《中国能源安全问题探讨》,载《中国软科学》,2001。
[15]沈骥如：《石油冲突：中美利益不能承受之重》,载《国际先驱报》,2004(2)。
[16]马凯：《在中国发展高层论坛上的讲话》,载《人民日报》,2004(3)。
[17]王忠明：《21世纪中国石油安全战略》,载《企业技术进步》,2001(11)。
[18]张运成：《国际石油的战略影响》,载《现代国际关系》,2003(2)。
[19]李连仲：《我国的能源安全与可持续发展》,载《经济研究参考》,2004(10)。
[20]埃德蒙·布兰奇著,倪海宁译：《阿联酋国防力量情报》,载《国际展望》,2006(1)。
[21]杭雷鸣：《我国能源消费结构问题研究》,上海交通大学博士论文www.cnki.net,2007。
[22]李建民：《阿富汗战争背后的石油利益》,载《中国石油》,2002(3)。
[23]王亚辉：《中国石油贸易研究》,载《航运经纬.水运》2006(]0)。
[24]刘戒骄：《石油-天然气与工业增长关系的变动趋势》,载《中国石油和化工经济分析》,2008(3)。
[25]王立敏：《供需失衡挑战能源安全——BP 世界能源统计2008》,载《国际石油经济》,2008(7)。
[26]白红光：《对中日东海石油之争的经济分析》,载《太平洋学报》,2006(3)。
[27]胡像红，王宇奇,赵起：《中国石油对外贸易现状和对策研究》,载《科技与管理》,2003(3)。
[28]魏巍贤,陈智文,王建军：《三状态马尔科夫机制转换模型研究——在世界油价波动分析中的应用》,载《财经研究》,2006(32)。
[29]孙传忠,安鸿志,吴国富：《ARCH模型及其应用与发展》,载《数理统计与应用概率》,1995(10)。
[30]刘宏杰,李维哲：《中国石油消费与经济增长之间的关系研究》,载《国土资源情报》,2007(12)。
[31]郭菊娥，卢虎等：《国际原油价格变动对中国经济影响的波及效应分析》,载《西安交通大学学报》(社会科学版),2007(27)。
[32]李雪：《外商直接投资的产业结构效应》,载《经济与管理研究》,2005(1)。
[33]钊,德寿,修晶,袁霓：《国际石油价格波动于中国的应对措施——基于博弈论与／ARCH类模型的分析》,载《中国青年政治学院学报》,2008(3)。
[34]曹永凯：《北京市产业结构高度化研究》,载《北方经济》,2006(1)。
[35]刘宏杰,邱立成：《中国能源消费与经济发展关系的时间序列分析——以石油资源为例》,载《河北经贸大学学报》,2008(29)。
[36]袁霓：《国内油价市场波动的ARCH模型分析》,载《技术经济与管理研究》,2009(1)。
[37]朱玉华：《中国经济地位与能源安全》,载《中国有色金属》,2006(6)。
[38]侯建卫：《中国石油对外贸易发展的思考》,载《对外经贸实务》,2006(1)。
[39]薛景：《国际石油价格走势特点及其影响因素分析》,载《经营管理者》,2009(1)。
[40]周嫚：《中国能源贸易问题研究》,载《经营管理者》,2009(2)。
[41]杨建辉,潘虹：《国际原油价格、人民币实际汇率与中国宏观经济研究》,载《系统工程理论与实践》,2008(1)。
[42]时克轩：《国家能源安全》,载《中国石化》,2008(1)。
[43]刘波：《石油禁运——国际社会的重要制裁手段》,载《辽宁大学学报》,2004(32)。
[44]王艺涵,孙振超：《国际贸易在中国石油安全战略中的作用》,载《北方经贸》,2007(10)。
[45]党金刚：《石油与中国经济》,载《大众科学(科学研究与实践)》,2008(6)。
[46]王才良：《从石油“七姐妹”到超级六巨头》,载《国际石油经济》,2009(2)。
[47]马冰：《石油进口依存度的衡量指标——以美国为例》,载《国土资源情报》,2001(5).
[48]陆肠：《我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验》,载《国际贸易问题》,2008(6)
[49]张建伟：《我国石油进口依存度分析与对策研究》,载《商业文化》,2012(7)
[50]周亮亮：《中国石油进口依存度高企的成因、影响及对策》,载《内蒙古财经学院学报》,2012(4)
[51]李霞：《中国石油进口依存度研究》,载《经济研究导刊》,2011(31)
[52]童晓光,赵林等：《对中国石油进口依存度问题的思考》,载《经济与管理研究》,2009(1)
[53]何金祥：《美国石油进口依存度的变化》,载《国土资源情报》,2006(5)
[54]汪如朗,王震等：《典型石油进口国石油进口依存度变化分析及对中国启示》,载《第三届中国能源战略国际论坛》,2008.
[55]庄芮：《石油进口持续增长对我国经济安全的影响》,载《世界经济研究》,2005(6)
[56]张洁：《中国能源安全中的马六甲因素》,载《国际政治研究》,2005(3)
[57]徐晓慧：《我国石油进口依存度分析》,载《对外经贸实务》,2010(11)
[58]张抗,周芳：《我国石油进口依存度和来源构成变化及启示》,载《中外能源》,2011(2)
[59]孟刚,张意翔：《影响石油安全的因素分析与对策探讨》,载《工业技术经济》,2007(4)
[60]王桂英：《中国石油环境分析和石油安全战略研究》,对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2003.
[61]库丽曼：《中国石油供应安全战略探讨》,成都理工大学硕士论文,2004.
[62]王建新,方淑芬：《我国石油安全战略体系的构建》,载《合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2006(2)
[63]李凌峰：《我国石油供应安全危机预警管理研究》,西南石油大学硕士论文,2006.
[64]王晶：《中国石油安全的经济学分析》,中央民族大学硕士论文,2006.
[65]崔宁：《国际石油价格高涨趋势下的中国石油安全问题分析》,对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2006.
[66]范秋芳：《中国石油安全预警及对策研究》,中国石油大学硕士论文,2007.
[67]张磊：《中国石油安全分析与对策研究》,天津大学硕士论文,2007.
[68]刘晶：《中国石油安全研究》,华中师范大学博士论文,2007.
[69]孙晓芳：《完善我国石油安全体系研究》,大庆石油学院硕士论文,2007.
[70]王楠：《对当前我国石油安全的评价和建议》,载《长春大学学报》,2008(6)
[71]张麦花,张亚芬：《我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势》,载《发展战略》,2006(3)
[72]徐晓慧：《我国石油进口依存度分析》,载《对外经济实务》,2010(11)
[73]金鑫、徐晓平：《中国问题报告》,2002,浦东电子出版社。
[74](美)保罗·克鲁格曼：《战略性贸易政策与新国际经济学(第四版)》,2000, 中国人民大学出版社。
[75](美)保罗·克鲁格曼：《克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论》,2001,中国社会科学出版社。
[76](瑞典)托马斯·安德森等：《环境与贸易.生态、经济、体制和政策》,1998,清华大学出版社。
[77](美)伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦：《现代世界体系》,1998,高等教育出版社。
[78](美)约翰·H·杰克逊：《世界贸易体制》,2001,复旦大学出版社。
[79](美)道格拉斯·A·欧文：《备受非议的自由贸易》,2003,中信出版社,辽宁教育出版社。
[80](美)贾格迪什·巴哥沃蒂：《今日自由贸易》,2004,中国人民大学出版社。
[81](美)丹尼尔·耶金.《石油风云》1997,上海译文出版社.
[82](美)莱昂纳尔多·毛杰里.《石油!石油！》2008,格致出版社、上海人民出版社.
[83](美)赫尔曼.E.戴利：《石油经济与政策》,2004,石油工业出版社
[84]华尔街日报：《石油风暴》,2005,经世文化出版有限公司。
[85](美)保罗.罗伯茨：《石油的终结》,2005,中信出版社。
[86]浩军：《石油到底出了什么问题》,2005,海鸽文化出版图书有限公司。
[87]彭刚,黄卫平,郭郁彬：《中国经济发展理论与实践研究》,2004,中国人民大学出版社。
[88]黄炎：《石油,汽车与中国可持续发展》,2006,石油工业出版社。
[89]崔民选：((2006中国能源发展报告》,2006,社会科学出版社。
[90]龚金双,李春霞,单卫国：《2005年中国石油市场分析报告》,2006,中国石油集团经济技术研究院。
[91]吴德春,黄继斌:《能源经济学》,1991,中国工人出版社。
[92]罗党：《灰色决策问题分析方法》,2005,黄河水利出版社。
[93]邓聚龙：《灰理论基础》,2002,华中科技大学出版社。
[94]邓聚龙：《灰色预测与决策》1986,华中科技大学出版社。
[95]吴磊：《中国石油安全》2003,中国社会科学出版社。
[96]查道炯：《中国石油安全的国际政治经济学分析》,2005,当代世界出版社。
[97]倪建民：《国家能源安全报告》,2005，人民出版社。
[98]Selig S.Harrison, "China,oil and Asia conflict ahead", Columbia University Press,1977.
[99]Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb, "The oil factor", Time Warner Book Group New York,2005.
[100]Paul Roberts, "The end of oil", Bloomsbury Publishing Plc London,2005.
[101]Brown, Yucel M.K., "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity:an interpretative survey"[J]. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2002, (42).
[102]David, K. Backus, Mario,J. Crucini, "Oil prices and the terms of trade"[J]. Energy Policy,2003(31).
[103]Lee,B.R., Lee,K., Ratti, R.A., "Monetary policy, oil price shocks, and the Japanese economy"[J]. Japan and the World Economy,2001,(13).
[104]Michacl, LeBlanc, "Do high oil price presage inflation? The evidence from G-5 countries"[J]. UC Santa Cruz Economics,2004,(12).
[105]Adelman, M.A., " Coping with supply insecurity",[J]. The Energy Journal 1983 (2).
[106]Adelman, M.A., "The Genie Out of the Bottle", [M], World Oil Since, MIT Press,1970.
[107]Alhajji,A. F., D. huettner, "The target revenue model and the world oil market: emprical evidence from 1971 to 1994", [J]. The Energy Journal,2000a 21(2).
[108]Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, "A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s," [J]. CEPR Discussion Papers 2389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[109]Barsky, Robert B., Lutz Kilian, "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternativ",[J]. NBER Working Paper Macroeconomics Annual 2001,2002.
[110]Barsky, Robert B., Lutz Kilian., "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s", [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2004,18(4).
[111]Bernanke, Ben S., " Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment", [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1).
[112]Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Watson, "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil price Shocks ", [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1997(1).
[113]Bernanke, Ben. Inflation Targeting:"Prospects and Problems",[R]. At the 28th Annual Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, October 17,2003.
[114]Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Gertler, Mark Watson, "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior:The Role of Monetary Policy, A Reply", [J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,2004,36(2).
[115]Bernanke, B.S., "Energy and the Economy", speech to the Economic Club of Chicago,2006,June 15.
[116]Bernanke, B.S., "The Economic Outlook, remarks before the National Italian American Foundation", New York,2006,November 28.
[117]Bernanke, Ben S., "The Crisis and the Policy Response", Stamp Lecture, January 13, London School of Economics.
[118]Hamilton, James D., " Understanding Crude Oil Prices", Energy Journal, forthcoming,2009.
[119]Hatfield, Craig B., " Oil Back on the Global Agenda", Nature, May 1997,387(8).
[120]Haigh, M.S., J. Hranaiova and J.A. Overdahl, "Price dynamics, price discovery and large futures trader interactions in the energy complex", US Commodity Futures Trading Commission,2005,Staff Research Report.
[121]Haigh, M. S., J. Hranaiova, et al., "Price volatility, liquidity provision and the role of managed money traders in energy futures markets", CFTC paper,2006.
[122]Herrera, A-M., "Inventories, Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Behavior", mimeo, Department of Economics, Michigan State University.2007.
[123]Hughes, Jonathan E., Christopher R. Knittel, Daniel Sperling, "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand", [J]. Energy Journal 2008,29 (1),113-134.
[124]Hnyilicza, E. and R. S. Pindyck, "Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel the case of OPEC", [J]. European economic review,1976,8, PP.139-154
[125]Hotelling, Harold,"The Economics of Exhaustible Resources", [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1931,39(2).
[126]Hooker, M.A., "What Heppened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1996,38.
[127]Hooker, M.A., "Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited. Board of Governors of the Federal System ", [J]. Working Paper.1999
[128]Hooker, M.A., "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications Versus Changes in Regime", [J]. Mimeo, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.,2000,August.
[129]Ivanhoe L F., "Updated Hubbert curve analyze world oil supply", [J]. World Oil, Nov.1996:91.
[130]Johany, A. D., "OPEC and the price of oil:cartelization or alteration of property rights", [J]. The Journal of Energy and Development 1980,5(1).
[131]Krugman, Paul., "Oil and the dollar." In Economic Interdependence and Flexible Exchange Rates, edited by J. S. Bhandari and B. H. Putnam. Cambridge:MIT Press.
[132]Krugman, Paul.1983b. "Oil shocks and exchange rate dynamics." In Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, edited by J. A. Frankel. Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
[133]Kilian, Lutz., " Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.
[134]Kilian, Lutz., "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries"[J]., Journal of the European Economic Association.
[135]Kilian, Lutz., "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks", [M]. University of Michigan and CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6559 Available at SSRN,5/2007.
[136]Kilian, Lutz., "Exogenous. Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2008,90(2),
[137]Kilian, Lutz. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike:Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market", [J]. Forthcoming, American Economic Review.
[138]Kilian, Lutz., "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008,90(2).
[139]Kilian, L.A., "Rebucci and N. Spatafora, Oil Shocks and External Balances", [J]. Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2).
[140]Krichene, N., "World crude oil markets:Monetary policy and the recent oil shock", IMF 2006,Working Paper No.06/62.
[141]Lastrapes, W.D., "Sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates." Review of Economics & Statistics,1992(74)..
[142]Loungani, Prakash. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis", [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1986,68(3).
[143]Lee, Kiseok, Ronald A. Ratti., "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy:The Role of Price Variability", [J]. Energy Journal,1995(16).
[144]Lee, Kiseok, and Shawn Ni., "On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks:A Study Using Industry Level Data", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2002(49).
[145]Leduc, Sylvain and Keith Sill., "A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2004(51).
[146]Lizardo, Radhames A., Mollick, Andre V., "Oil Price Fluctuations and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates (2009) ", Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas-Pan American.
[147]Masters, M.W., "Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs", [R]. United States Senate,2008-5-20.
[148]McGuirk, Anne K., "Oil price changes and real exchange rate movements among industrial countries," [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 30.
[149]Michael B.McElroy, Chris R Nielsen,and Peter Lydon.Energizing China: Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth[M].The Harvard University Committee on Environment,1998.
[150]Olav Bjerkholt,Qystein Oolsen and Jonvislie.Recent Modeling Approaches in Applied Energy Economics[M]. Chapman and Hall Ltd.,1990.
[151]Phillip Andrews-Speed.Energy Policy and Regulation in the People's Republic of China[M].Kluwer Law 2003.
[152]Richard Eden.Energy Economics:Growth,Resources and Policies[M].London: Cambridge University Press,1981.
[153]Robert G.Reed Ⅲ and Fereidun Fesharaki.The Oil Market in the 1990s-Challenges for the New Era[M].Westview Press,1989.
[154]R.W.Ferrier and A.Farsenko.Oil in the World Economy[M].Routledge Press,1989
[155]Siamack Shojai.The New Global Oil Market:Understanding Energy Issues in the World Economy[M].Praeger Publishers,1995.
[156]Steve A.Yetiv.Crude Awakenings:Global Oil Security And American Foreign Policy[M].Cornell University Press,2004.
②丹尼尔·耶金.石油风云[M].上海：上海译文出版社,1997.
③莱昂纳尔多·毛杰里.石油!石油![M].上海：格致出版社、上海人民出版社,2008.
① Olav Bjerkholt,Qystein Oolsen and Jonvislie.Recent Modeling Approaches in Applied Energy Economics[M].Chapman and Hall Ltd.,1990.
② Robert G.ReeddⅢand Fereidun Fesharaki.The Oil Market in the 1990s-Challenges for the New Era[M].Westview Press,1989.
③保罗·罗伯茨.石油的终结：濒临危险的新世界[M].北京：中信出版社,2005.
① Phillip Andrews-Speed.Energy Policy and Regulation in the People's Republic of China[M].Kluwer Law,2003.
②Michael B.McElroy, Chris R Nielsen,and Peter Lydon.Energizing China:Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth[M].The Harvard University Committee on Environment,1998.
③张麦花,张业芬.我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势分析[J].辽宁经济,2006(3)：29-31.
④陆旸.我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2008(6)：45-50.
①张建伟.我国石油对外依存度分析与对策研究[J].商业文化,2012(7)：11-13.
②周亮亮.中国石油对外依存度高企的成因、影响及对策[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2012(4)：91-95.
③张抗.石油进口大幅增长对我国经济发展的影响分析[J].中外能源,2009(8)：11-14.
④李霞.中国石油对外依存度研究[J].经济研究导刊,2011(31)：171-172.
①童晓光,赵林等.对中国石油对外依存度问题的思考[J].经济与管理研究,2009(1)：60-67.
②何金祥.美国石油对外依存度的变化[J].国土资源情报,2006(5)：35-38.
③马冰.石油对外依存度的衡量指标——以美国为例[J].国土资源情报,2001(5)：40-45.
④崔荣国,刘树臣.矿产品对外依存度研究及初步测算[J].国土资源情报,2008(8)：39-43.
⑤何沙,吉安民等.基于我国石油对外依存度的石油安全策略研究[J].西南石油大学学报(社会科学版)：2011(3)：1-6.
①陈海涛.基于灰色系统理论的我国石油消费对外依存度预测[J].生态经济,2012(5)：103-106.
②查道炯.中国石油安全的国际政治经济学分析[M].北京：当代世界出版社,2005.
①徐晓慧.我国石油对外依存度分析[J].对外经贸实务,2010(11)：27-30.
②张抗,周芳.我国石油进口依存度和来源构成变化及启示[J].中外能源,2011(2)：8-17.
①张幼文.我国外贸依存度提高的影响与对策[J].国际贸易问题,2004(8)：20-22.
②庞博.我国对外贸易依存度过高的风险及调整对策[J].经济视觉,2005(7)：54-55.
③于海蓉,范晓军.外贸依存度提高对我国经济的影响及对策[J].山西财经大学学报(高等教育版),2007(1)：13-14.
④郑春梅.我国对外贸易依存度与实际汇率关系的实证研究[J].经济问题,2008(10)：24-25.
①黄彦,许统生.我国外贸依存度分析[J].当代财经,2003(4)：81-86.
②魏建国,曹爱萍.对中国对外贸易依存度的实证研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2005(11)：35-41.
③张素芳,房剑.外贸依存度测算方法的改进及对中国外贸依存度的重新估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(6)：82-86.
④刘向尧.加工贸易与我国的外贸依存度[J].工业技术经济,2009(10)：60-71.
①张丽峰.中国能源供求预测模型及发展对策研究lD].北京：首都经济贸易大学,2006.
①张麦花,张亚芬.我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势分析[J].辽宁经济,2006(3)：29-31.
[1]李相远,李亮：《保障我国石油安全的对策和建议》,载《经济师》,2005(9)。
[2]李朴民：《中国应对高油价的选择》,载《国民经济管理》,2006(3)。
[3]朱成章：《把提高能源效率落实到实处》,载《节能与环保》,2006(4)。
[4]梁金修：《我国能源供需与新型工业化能源战略》,载《宏观经济管理》,2006(4)。
[5]仝秀华：《试论石油战略储备》,载《中国能源》,2003。
[6]黄建纲：《海湾国家与中国合作前景广阔》,载《经济日报》,2002(8)。
[7]舒先林、陈松林：《非洲石油与中国能源安全》,载《石油大学学报》(社会科学版),2004(5)。
[8]王海滨、吴磊：《中国的石油安全与地缘战略》,载《国际观察》,2002(2)。
[9]马卫锋：《构建石油金融体系：中国石油安全的战略选择》,载《资源科学》,2005(6)。
[10]韩学锋：《21世纪中国石油安全与中国中亚石油战略》,载《兰州学刊》,2004(5)。
[11]吴巧生：《中国能源战略评价》,载《中国工业经济》,2002(6)。
[12]朗一环,王礼茂：《国际安全新形势下的中国石油安全战略调整》,载《中国能源》,2008(1)。
[13]王礼茂：《资源安全的影响因素与评估指标》,载《自然科学学报》,2002(17)。
[14]张雷：《中国能源安全问题探讨》,载《中国软科学》,2001。
[15]沈骥如：《石油冲突：中美利益不能承受之重》,载《国际先驱报》,2004(2)。
[16]马凯：《在中国发展高层论坛上的讲话》,载《人民日报》,2004(3)。
[17]王忠明：《21世纪中国石油安全战略》,载《企业技术进步》,2001(11)。
[18]张运成：《国际石油的战略影响》,载《现代国际关系》,2003(2)。
[19]李连仲：《我国的能源安全与可持续发展》,载《经济研究参考》,2004(10)。
[20]埃德蒙·布兰奇著,倪海宁译：《阿联酋国防力量情报》,载《国际展望》,2006(1)。
[21]杭雷鸣：《我国能源消费结构问题研究》,上海交通大学博士论文www.cnki.net,2007。
[22]李建民：《阿富汗战争背后的石油利益》,载《中国石油》,2002(3)。
[23]王亚辉：《中国石油贸易研究》,载《航运经纬.水运》2006(]0)。
[24]刘戒骄：《石油-天然气与工业增长关系的变动趋势》,载《中国石油和化工经济分析》,2008(3)。
[25]王立敏：《供需失衡挑战能源安全——BP 世界能源统计2008》,载《国际石油经济》,2008(7)。
[26]白红光：《对中日东海石油之争的经济分析》,载《太平洋学报》,2006(3)。
[27]胡像红，王宇奇,赵起：《中国石油对外贸易现状和对策研究》,载《科技与管理》,2003(3)。
[28]魏巍贤,陈智文,王建军：《三状态马尔科夫机制转换模型研究——在世界油价波动分析中的应用》,载《财经研究》,2006(32)。
[29]孙传忠,安鸿志,吴国富：《ARCH模型及其应用与发展》,载《数理统计与应用概率》,1995(10)。
[30]刘宏杰,李维哲：《中国石油消费与经济增长之间的关系研究》,载《国土资源情报》,2007(12)。
[31]郭菊娥，卢虎等：《国际原油价格变动对中国经济影响的波及效应分析》,载《西安交通大学学报》(社会科学版),2007(27)。
[32]李雪：《外商直接投资的产业结构效应》,载《经济与管理研究》,2005(1)。
[33]钊,德寿,修晶,袁霓：《国际石油价格波动于中国的应对措施——基于博弈论与／ARCH类模型的分析》,载《中国青年政治学院学报》,2008(3)。
[34]曹永凯：《北京市产业结构高度化研究》,载《北方经济》,2006(1)。
[35]刘宏杰,邱立成：《中国能源消费与经济发展关系的时间序列分析——以石油资源为例》,载《河北经贸大学学报》,2008(29)。
[36]袁霓：《国内油价市场波动的ARCH模型分析》,载《技术经济与管理研究》,2009(1)。
[37]朱玉华：《中国经济地位与能源安全》,载《中国有色金属》,2006(6)。
[38]侯建卫：《中国石油对外贸易发展的思考》,载《对外经贸实务》,2006(1)。
[39]薛景：《国际石油价格走势特点及其影响因素分析》,载《经营管理者》,2009(1)。
[40]周嫚：《中国能源贸易问题研究》,载《经营管理者》,2009(2)。
[41]杨建辉,潘虹：《国际原油价格、人民币实际汇率与中国宏观经济研究》,载《系统工程理论与实践》,2008(1)。
[42]时克轩：《国家能源安全》,载《中国石化》,2008(1)。
[43]刘波：《石油禁运——国际社会的重要制裁手段》,载《辽宁大学学报》,2004(32)。
[44]王艺涵,孙振超：《国际贸易在中国石油安全战略中的作用》,载《北方经贸》,2007(10)。
[45]党金刚：《石油与中国经济》,载《大众科学(科学研究与实践)》,2008(6)。
[46]王才良：《从石油“七姐妹”到超级六巨头》,载《国际石油经济》,2009(2)。
[47]马冰：《石油进口依存度的衡量指标——以美国为例》,载《国土资源情报》,2001(5).
[48]陆肠：《我国原油进口依存度的国别差异分析——基于Armington模型的实证检验》,载《国际贸易问题》,2008(6)
[49]张建伟：《我国石油进口依存度分析与对策研究》,载《商业文化》,2012(7)
[50]周亮亮：《中国石油进口依存度高企的成因、影响及对策》,载《内蒙古财经学院学报》,2012(4)
[51]李霞：《中国石油进口依存度研究》,载《经济研究导刊》,2011(31)
[52]童晓光,赵林等：《对中国石油进口依存度问题的思考》,载《经济与管理研究》,2009(1)
[53]何金祥：《美国石油进口依存度的变化》,载《国土资源情报》,2006(5)
[54]汪如朗,王震等：《典型石油进口国石油进口依存度变化分析及对中国启示》,载《第三届中国能源战略国际论坛》,2008.
[55]庄芮：《石油进口持续增长对我国经济安全的影响》,载《世界经济研究》,2005(6)
[56]张洁：《中国能源安全中的马六甲因素》,载《国际政治研究》,2005(3)
[57]徐晓慧：《我国石油进口依存度分析》,载《对外经贸实务》,2010(11)
[58]张抗,周芳：《我国石油进口依存度和来源构成变化及启示》,载《中外能源》,2011(2)
[59]孟刚,张意翔：《影响石油安全的因素分析与对策探讨》,载《工业技术经济》,2007(4)
[60]王桂英：《中国石油环境分析和石油安全战略研究》,对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2003.
[61]库丽曼：《中国石油供应安全战略探讨》,成都理工大学硕士论文,2004.
[62]王建新,方淑芬：《我国石油安全战略体系的构建》,载《合肥工业大学学报(社会科学版)》,2006(2)
[63]李凌峰：《我国石油供应安全危机预警管理研究》,西南石油大学硕士论文,2006.
[64]王晶：《中国石油安全的经济学分析》,中央民族大学硕士论文,2006.
[65]崔宁：《国际石油价格高涨趋势下的中国石油安全问题分析》,对外经济贸易大学硕士论文,2006.
[66]范秋芳：《中国石油安全预警及对策研究》,中国石油大学硕士论文,2007.
[67]张磊：《中国石油安全分析与对策研究》,天津大学硕士论文,2007.
[68]刘晶：《中国石油安全研究》,华中师范大学博士论文,2007.
[69]孙晓芳：《完善我国石油安全体系研究》,大庆石油学院硕士论文,2007.
[70]王楠：《对当前我国石油安全的评价和建议》,载《长春大学学报》,2008(6)
[71]张麦花,张亚芬：《我国石油依存度现状与发展趋势》,载《发展战略》,2006(3)
[72]徐晓慧：《我国石油进口依存度分析》,载《对外经济实务》,2010(11)
[73]金鑫、徐晓平：《中国问题报告》,2002,浦东电子出版社。
[74](美)保罗·克鲁格曼：《战略性贸易政策与新国际经济学(第四版)》,2000, 中国人民大学出版社。
[75](美)保罗·克鲁格曼：《克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论》,2001,中国社会科学出版社。
[76](瑞典)托马斯·安德森等：《环境与贸易.生态、经济、体制和政策》,1998,清华大学出版社。
[77](美)伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦：《现代世界体系》,1998,高等教育出版社。
[78](美)约翰·H·杰克逊：《世界贸易体制》,2001,复旦大学出版社。
[79](美)道格拉斯·A·欧文：《备受非议的自由贸易》,2003,中信出版社,辽宁教育出版社。
[80](美)贾格迪什·巴哥沃蒂：《今日自由贸易》,2004,中国人民大学出版社。
[81](美)丹尼尔·耶金.《石油风云》1997,上海译文出版社.
[82](美)莱昂纳尔多·毛杰里.《石油!石油！》2008,格致出版社、上海人民出版社.
[83](美)赫尔曼.E.戴利：《石油经济与政策》,2004,石油工业出版社
[84]华尔街日报：《石油风暴》,2005,经世文化出版有限公司。
[85](美)保罗.罗伯茨：《石油的终结》,2005,中信出版社。
[86]浩军：《石油到底出了什么问题》,2005,海鸽文化出版图书有限公司。
[87]彭刚,黄卫平,郭郁彬：《中国经济发展理论与实践研究》,2004,中国人民大学出版社。
[88]黄炎：《石油,汽车与中国可持续发展》,2006,石油工业出版社。
[89]崔民选：((2006中国能源发展报告》,2006,社会科学出版社。
[90]龚金双,李春霞,单卫国：《2005年中国石油市场分析报告》,2006,中国石油集团经济技术研究院。
[91]吴德春,黄继斌:《能源经济学》,1991,中国工人出版社。
[92]罗党：《灰色决策问题分析方法》,2005,黄河水利出版社。
[93]邓聚龙：《灰理论基础》,2002,华中科技大学出版社。
[94]邓聚龙：《灰色预测与决策》1986,华中科技大学出版社。
[95]吴磊：《中国石油安全》2003,中国社会科学出版社。
[96]查道炯：《中国石油安全的国际政治经济学分析》,2005,当代世界出版社。
[97]倪建民：《国家能源安全报告》,2005，人民出版社。
[98]Selig S.Harrison, "China,oil and Asia conflict ahead", Columbia University Press,1977.
[99]Stephen Leeb, Donna Leeb, "The oil factor", Time Warner Book Group New York,2005.
[100]Paul Roberts, "The end of oil", Bloomsbury Publishing Plc London,2005.
[101]Brown, Yucel M.K., "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity:an interpretative survey"[J]. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,2002, (42).
[102]David, K. Backus, Mario,J. Crucini, "Oil prices and the terms of trade"[J]. Energy Policy,2003(31).
[103]Lee,B.R., Lee,K., Ratti, R.A., "Monetary policy, oil price shocks, and the Japanese economy"[J]. Japan and the World Economy,2001,(13).
[104]Michacl, LeBlanc, "Do high oil price presage inflation? The evidence from G-5 countries"[J]. UC Santa Cruz Economics,2004,(12).
[105]Adelman, M.A., " Coping with supply insecurity",[J]. The Energy Journal 1983 (2).
[106]Adelman, M.A., "The Genie Out of the Bottle", [M], World Oil Since, MIT Press,1970.
[107]Alhajji,A. F., D. huettner, "The target revenue model and the world oil market: emprical evidence from 1971 to 1994", [J]. The Energy Journal,2000a 21(2).
[108]Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, "A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s," [J]. CEPR Discussion Papers 2389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[109]Barsky, Robert B., Lutz Kilian, "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternativ",[J]. NBER Working Paper Macroeconomics Annual 2001,2002.
[110]Barsky, Robert B., Lutz Kilian., "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s", [J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2004,18(4).
[111]Bernanke, Ben S., " Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment", [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983,98(1).
[112]Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Watson, "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil price Shocks ", [J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1997(1).
[113]Bernanke, Ben. Inflation Targeting:"Prospects and Problems",[R]. At the 28th Annual Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, October 17,2003.
[114]Bernanke, Ben S., Mark Gertler, Mark Watson, "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior:The Role of Monetary Policy, A Reply", [J]. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking,2004,36(2).
[115]Bernanke, B.S., "Energy and the Economy", speech to the Economic Club of Chicago,2006,June 15.
[116]Bernanke, B.S., "The Economic Outlook, remarks before the National Italian American Foundation", New York,2006,November 28.
[117]Bernanke, Ben S., "The Crisis and the Policy Response", Stamp Lecture, January 13, London School of Economics.
[118]Hamilton, James D., " Understanding Crude Oil Prices", Energy Journal, forthcoming,2009.
[119]Hatfield, Craig B., " Oil Back on the Global Agenda", Nature, May 1997,387(8).
[120]Haigh, M.S., J. Hranaiova and J.A. Overdahl, "Price dynamics, price discovery and large futures trader interactions in the energy complex", US Commodity Futures Trading Commission,2005,Staff Research Report.
[121]Haigh, M. S., J. Hranaiova, et al., "Price volatility, liquidity provision and the role of managed money traders in energy futures markets", CFTC paper,2006.
[122]Herrera, A-M., "Inventories, Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Behavior", mimeo, Department of Economics, Michigan State University.2007.
[123]Hughes, Jonathan E., Christopher R. Knittel, Daniel Sperling, "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand", [J]. Energy Journal 2008,29 (1),113-134.
[124]Hnyilicza, E. and R. S. Pindyck, "Pricing policies for a two-part exhaustible resource cartel the case of OPEC", [J]. European economic review,1976,8, PP.139-154
[125]Hotelling, Harold,"The Economics of Exhaustible Resources", [J]. Journal of Political Economy,1931,39(2).
[126]Hooker, M.A., "What Heppened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics.1996,38.
[127]Hooker, M.A., "Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited. Board of Governors of the Federal System ", [J]. Working Paper.1999
[128]Hooker, M.A., "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications Versus Changes in Regime", [J]. Mimeo, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.,2000,August.
[129]Ivanhoe L F., "Updated Hubbert curve analyze world oil supply", [J]. World Oil, Nov.1996:91.
[130]Johany, A. D., "OPEC and the price of oil:cartelization or alteration of property rights", [J]. The Journal of Energy and Development 1980,5(1).
[131]Krugman, Paul., "Oil and the dollar." In Economic Interdependence and Flexible Exchange Rates, edited by J. S. Bhandari and B. H. Putnam. Cambridge:MIT Press.
[132]Krugman, Paul.1983b. "Oil shocks and exchange rate dynamics." In Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, edited by J. A. Frankel. Chicago:University of Chicago Press.
[133]Kilian, Lutz., " Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics.
[134]Kilian, Lutz., "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries"[J]., Journal of the European Economic Association.
[135]Kilian, Lutz., "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks", [M]. University of Michigan and CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP6559 Available at SSRN,5/2007.
[136]Kilian, Lutz., "Exogenous. Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,2008,90(2),
[137]Kilian, Lutz. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike:Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market", [J]. Forthcoming, American Economic Review.
[138]Kilian, Lutz., "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks:How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?", [J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2008,90(2).
[139]Kilian, L.A., "Rebucci and N. Spatafora, Oil Shocks and External Balances", [J]. Journal of International Economics,2009,77(2).
[140]Krichene, N., "World crude oil markets:Monetary policy and the recent oil shock", IMF 2006,Working Paper No.06/62.
[141]Lastrapes, W.D., "Sources of fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates." Review of Economics & Statistics,1992(74)..
[142]Loungani, Prakash. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis", [J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,1986,68(3).
[143]Lee, Kiseok, Ronald A. Ratti., "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy:The Role of Price Variability", [J]. Energy Journal,1995(16).
[144]Lee, Kiseok, and Shawn Ni., "On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks:A Study Using Industry Level Data", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2002(49).
[145]Leduc, Sylvain and Keith Sill., "A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, and Economic Downturns", [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2004(51).
[146]Lizardo, Radhames A., Mollick, Andre V., "Oil Price Fluctuations and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates (2009) ", Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas-Pan American.
[147]Masters, M.W., "Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs", [R]. United States Senate,2008-5-20.
[148]McGuirk, Anne K., "Oil price changes and real exchange rate movements among industrial countries," [J]. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 30.
[149]Michael B.McElroy, Chris R Nielsen,and Peter Lydon.Energizing China: Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth[M].The Harvard University Committee on Environment,1998.
[150]Olav Bjerkholt,Qystein Oolsen and Jonvislie.Recent Modeling Approaches in Applied Energy Economics[M]. Chapman and Hall Ltd.,1990.
[151]Phillip Andrews-Speed.Energy Policy and Regulation in the People's Republic of China[M].Kluwer Law 2003.
[152]Richard Eden.Energy Economics:Growth,Resources and Policies[M].London: Cambridge University Press,1981.
[153]Robert G.Reed Ⅲ and Fereidun Fesharaki.The Oil Market in the 1990s-Challenges for the New Era[M].Westview Press,1989.
[154]R.W.Ferrier and A.Farsenko.Oil in the World Economy[M].Routledge Press,1989
[155]Siamack Shojai.The New Global Oil Market:Understanding Energy Issues in the World Economy[M].Praeger Publishers,1995.
[156]Steve A.Yetiv.Crude Awakenings:Global Oil Security And American Foreign Policy[M].Cornell University Press,2004.