基于福利分析的人民币汇率制度选择研究
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摘要
选择一个合适的汇率制度对一个经济开放的国家来说至关重要。随着我国经济的逐步发展和融入全球经济与金融一体化的程度逐渐加深，人民币汇率制度选择问题愈来愈受到国内外的普遍关注。
汇率制度选择理论一直是国际经济学领域百家争鸣的研究热点，各种理论和研究范式也在不断发展和创新。本文以福利为研究的出发点，基于历史演进的方法论，运用新开放宏观经济学的研究范式，从理论和实证两个方面，从短期和长期两个视角分别建立了适合我国的人民币汇率制度选择的“小国”模型和“大国”模型。其中，“小国"模型以当前的经济发展为现实基础，从国际实际需求与国际价格等外生冲击角度详细考察了固定汇率制度和浮动汇率制对我国居民的不同福利影响；“大国”模型则以未来的经济趋势为理论基础，详细考察了国家规模与对外开放度在不同的汇率制度下对我国居民的不同福利影响。
两个模型遵从结构化的建模思路，综合规范分析与实证分析两个角度，结合定性分析与定量分析，得出了符合我国目前经济现状与未来发展趋势的一致结论：为了进一步提高我国居民的福利水平，人民币汇率制度应该继续朝着更具灵活性的战略方向发展。
It is crucial for one country with open economy to choose the right exchange rateregime. The problem on the renminbi exchange rate regime choice has been turningmore and more attention from both inside and outside on with the economicdevelopment and the deepening of integration both of the international economy andof the international finance.
The theory on the choice of exchange rate regime is always the hot part in thefield of the research on the international economics and there have been many kindsof theory and the pattem which keeps development and creation in diverse directions.Based on the methodology of historical evolution and both the theoretical andexperiential analysis as well, here this thesis take the welfare as the start point ofresearch and apply the "new open economy macroeconomics" to build the "smallcountry model" which concerns the short run and the "big country model" whichconcerns the long run. Based on the economical reality in the short run, the "smallcountry model" analyzed the different welfare effect under the fixed and floatexchange rate regime with the shock of international real demand and internationalmerchandise price index; Based on the economic expectation in the long run, the "bigcountry model" analyzed the different welfare effect under the fixed and floatexchange rate regime with different country scale and openness.
Both the small and the big country model are structural model and synthesizedthe experiential analysis and the methodology of normative and positive economics totake both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The two models have the consistentconclusion which is related to the current economic reality and future development: inorder to improve the welfare of people, the renminbi exchange rate regime should stepforward to be more flexible.
汇率制度选择理论一直是国际经济学领域百家争鸣的研究热点，各种理论和研究范式也在不断发展和创新。本文以福利为研究的出发点，基于历史演进的方法论，运用新开放宏观经济学的研究范式，从理论和实证两个方面，从短期和长期两个视角分别建立了适合我国的人民币汇率制度选择的“小国”模型和“大国”模型。其中，“小国"模型以当前的经济发展为现实基础，从国际实际需求与国际价格等外生冲击角度详细考察了固定汇率制度和浮动汇率制对我国居民的不同福利影响；“大国”模型则以未来的经济趋势为理论基础，详细考察了国家规模与对外开放度在不同的汇率制度下对我国居民的不同福利影响。
两个模型遵从结构化的建模思路，综合规范分析与实证分析两个角度，结合定性分析与定量分析，得出了符合我国目前经济现状与未来发展趋势的一致结论：为了进一步提高我国居民的福利水平，人民币汇率制度应该继续朝着更具灵活性的战略方向发展。
It is crucial for one country with open economy to choose the right exchange rateregime. The problem on the renminbi exchange rate regime choice has been turningmore and more attention from both inside and outside on with the economicdevelopment and the deepening of integration both of the international economy andof the international finance.
The theory on the choice of exchange rate regime is always the hot part in thefield of the research on the international economics and there have been many kindsof theory and the pattem which keeps development and creation in diverse directions.Based on the methodology of historical evolution and both the theoretical andexperiential analysis as well, here this thesis take the welfare as the start point ofresearch and apply the "new open economy macroeconomics" to build the "smallcountry model" which concerns the short run and the "big country model" whichconcerns the long run. Based on the economical reality in the short run, the "smallcountry model" analyzed the different welfare effect under the fixed and floatexchange rate regime with the shock of international real demand and internationalmerchandise price index; Based on the economic expectation in the long run, the "bigcountry model" analyzed the different welfare effect under the fixed and floatexchange rate regime with different country scale and openness.
Both the small and the big country model are structural model and synthesizedthe experiential analysis and the methodology of normative and positive economics totake both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The two models have the consistentconclusion which is related to the current economic reality and future development: inorder to improve the welfare of people, the renminbi exchange rate regime should stepforward to be more flexible.
引文
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