我国柑橘出口比较优势及其可持续性研究
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摘要
柑橘类水果营养价值高,在全球被广泛种植。我国柑橘主要种植于南方,种植面积位居世界第一,产量现在也已位居世界第一,但是单位面积产量低下。柑橘属于劳动密集型产品,而我国劳动力资源丰富。入世以来,我国柑橘出口量与出口额都显著增加,尽管如此,柑橘出口量只占国内产量的5%左右。2004年以来,我国农业生产资料价格和劳动力成本不断上升,“民工荒”现象愈来愈频繁,在这种现状下探讨我国柑橘出口比较优势的大小,分析其可持续性,提出增强我国柑橘出口比较优势的对策具有重要的现实指导意义。
本文综合运用经济学、农业经济学、国际贸易学的原理,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合,以及描述统计、计量模型分析等多种方法,解释有关柑橘出口比较优势及其可持续性规律,分析其内在政策意义。
论文按照逻辑顺序共分6章。第1章导言,阐明研究目的与意义,界定相关概念,包括比较优势概念、出口比较优势概念以及出口比较优势可持续性概念,分析了国内外研究动态,论述了论文研究结构方法,介绍了论文的创新点与可能的不足之处。第2章详细介绍比较优势理论及其发展状况,对测度比较优势的方法与部分指标进行了梳理。第3章介绍我国柑橘种植面积与产量,分析柑橘生产成本构成及其发展变化趋势,发现劳动日平均工价成为我国柑橘生产成本上升的主导因素,接着对出口现状做了简单的总结,为测度我国柑橘出口比较优势作铺垫。第4章选取了显示性比较优势指数与国际市场占有率两个指标对我国柑橘出口比较优势大小进行测度,得出目前我国柑橘出口比较优势较强的结论,并对测度结果进行了讨论。第5章首先依据柑橘流通中价格形成和利益分配环节,分别测算了国际柑橘出口均价与我国柑橘出口价格之差、我国柑橘出口价格与收购价格之差、收购价格与柑橘生产成本之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,发现我国柑橘出口价格在实证期内受国际市场影响较强。在此基础上运用自回归移动平均模型对我国柑橘出口比较优势的可持续性进行了短期预测,运用半对数模型从生产成本角度主要是从劳动日平均工价角度对其进行长期预测。长期预测结果表明目前我国柑橘出口比较优势是可持续的,劳动日平均工价尚未上升到导致出口比较优势完全丧失的第二临界点。如果考虑汇率变动因素,估计现在的柑橘劳动日平均工价和柑橘实际稳定出口价格已经达到导致出口比较优势开始丧失的第一临界点。第6章提出了增强我国柑橘出口比较优势的政策建议。
本文可能的创新点有：
第一,对我国柑橘市场价格构成以及我国柑橘出口价格与国际柑橘出口平均价格之间的关系进行了实证分析。分别测算了国际柑橘出口平均价格与我国柑橘出口价格之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,测算了我国柑橘出口价格与收购价格之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,测算了我国柑橘收购价格与生产成本之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,发现我国柑橘出口价格在实证期内受国际市场影响较强。
第二,从生产成本角度主要是劳动日平均工价角度,对我国柑橘出口比较优势的可持续性进行了定量长期预测,得出的结论具有新意。
第三,本文首次提出了柑橘出口比较优势可持续性及其临界点的概念,并进行了相关测算。研究表明,如果考虑汇率因素,我国柑橘劳动日平均工价以及柑橘实际稳定出口价格已经到达了导致出口比较优势开始丧失的第一临界点,但尚未到达致使出口比较优势完全丧失的第二临界点。
Citrus fruit is planted widely in the world, with high nutritional value. In our country, citrus are mainly planted in the south, with the most planted hectares and the most production quantities in the world now. Citrus are labor-intensive products, while our country has much labor resources. Since we joined WTO, the export volume and sales of citrus are highly improved, though, the export volume is small with the ratio about 5% of domestic production. Since 2004, the cost of agricultural means of production and labor have risen rapidly, and the phenomenon of "being lack of peasent-labor" has been more and more prevalent. In this situation, it is with great practical guiding mean to refer to the export comparative advantage of our citrus, to analyze its persistency, and to put forward strategy ideas.
This study applies Economics, Agricultural Economics, and International Trade comprehensively. And it manages to illustrate the law as to export comparative advantage and its persistency on China's citrus, and analyze the policy instructions the variables imply by means of integration of positive and normative studies and integration of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The other methods such as econometric models and describing statistical analysis are also used in course of the research.
This study is composed of 6 chapters in logical order. ChapterⅠis preface. In the preface, the purpose and significance of the topic studied are clarified; the related concepts are identified, which include comparative advantage, export comparative advantage, and the persistency of export comparative advantage. The recent development of the research in this area at home and abroad is synthesized; the structure and research methods of this study are expounded; the main creative ideas and the possible problems are introduced. ChapterⅡintroduces the comparative advantage theory and its developments, and sorts out the methods and indexes to estimate the comparative advantage. ChapterⅢtells the total harvest areas and total production quantities of citrus in our whole country, analyzes the production cost structure of citrus and its developing trend obtaining the conclusion that average labor-day cost is the main factor leading to the rising of production cost. Then it tells the present situation of citrus export, foreshadowing the next chapter. ChapterⅣchooses the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and International Market-Possessing Rates Index to measure the export comparative advantage of our citrus fruit, discovering that the export comparative advantage is strong at present. Meanwhile, it discusses the estimation result. ChapterⅤfirstly makes an empirical analysis of the citrus prices depending on their formation and the course of benefits distribution, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the average export price in the world and the export price of our country and the citrus production cost, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the export price and the purchasing price and the citrus production cost, and by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the purchasing price and the citrus production cost and the citrus production cost, discovering that our citrus export price was strongly influenced by international market. On this basis, it makes a short-term forecasting of the persistency of the export comparative advantage with ARMA model, and makes a long-run forecasting with the semi-log model in the direction of production cost especially in the direction of average labor-day cost. The long-term forecasting result shows that our citrus export comparative advantage is persistent now, because the average labor-day cost has not reach the second critical point, which makes the completely losing of export comparative advantage. If we consider the changing trend of exchange rate, the average labor-day cost and the real normal export price of our citrus has already reached the first critical point, which makes the beginning losing of the export comparative advantage. ChapterⅥgives advises to enhancing our citrus export comparative advantage.
The possible innovative points of this study may be as follow three.
First, it makes an empirical analysis of the citrus prices depending on their formation and the course of benefits distribution, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the average export price in the world and the export price of our country and the citrus production cost, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the export price and the purchasing price and the citrus production cost, and by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the purchasing price and the citrus production cost and the citrus production cost, discovering that our citrus export price was strongly influenced by international market.
Second, it makes a long-run forecasting with the semi-log model in the direction of production cost especially in the direction of average labor-day cost. The conclusion obtained is new.
Third, it proposes the concept of the persistency of export comparative advantage and its critical point for the first time, and measures them. The research shows that our citrus export comparative advantage is persistent now, because the average labor-day cost has not reach the second critical point, which makes the completely losing of export comparative advantage. If we consider the changing trend of exchange rate, the average labor-day cost and the real normal export price of our citrus have already reached the first critical point, which makes the beginning losing of the export comparative advantage.
本文综合运用经济学、农业经济学、国际贸易学的原理,采取理论分析与实证分析相结合、定性分析与定量分析相结合,以及描述统计、计量模型分析等多种方法,解释有关柑橘出口比较优势及其可持续性规律,分析其内在政策意义。
论文按照逻辑顺序共分6章。第1章导言,阐明研究目的与意义,界定相关概念,包括比较优势概念、出口比较优势概念以及出口比较优势可持续性概念,分析了国内外研究动态,论述了论文研究结构方法,介绍了论文的创新点与可能的不足之处。第2章详细介绍比较优势理论及其发展状况,对测度比较优势的方法与部分指标进行了梳理。第3章介绍我国柑橘种植面积与产量,分析柑橘生产成本构成及其发展变化趋势,发现劳动日平均工价成为我国柑橘生产成本上升的主导因素,接着对出口现状做了简单的总结,为测度我国柑橘出口比较优势作铺垫。第4章选取了显示性比较优势指数与国际市场占有率两个指标对我国柑橘出口比较优势大小进行测度,得出目前我国柑橘出口比较优势较强的结论,并对测度结果进行了讨论。第5章首先依据柑橘流通中价格形成和利益分配环节,分别测算了国际柑橘出口均价与我国柑橘出口价格之差、我国柑橘出口价格与收购价格之差、收购价格与柑橘生产成本之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,发现我国柑橘出口价格在实证期内受国际市场影响较强。在此基础上运用自回归移动平均模型对我国柑橘出口比较优势的可持续性进行了短期预测,运用半对数模型从生产成本角度主要是从劳动日平均工价角度对其进行长期预测。长期预测结果表明目前我国柑橘出口比较优势是可持续的,劳动日平均工价尚未上升到导致出口比较优势完全丧失的第二临界点。如果考虑汇率变动因素,估计现在的柑橘劳动日平均工价和柑橘实际稳定出口价格已经达到导致出口比较优势开始丧失的第一临界点。第6章提出了增强我国柑橘出口比较优势的政策建议。
本文可能的创新点有：
第一,对我国柑橘市场价格构成以及我国柑橘出口价格与国际柑橘出口平均价格之间的关系进行了实证分析。分别测算了国际柑橘出口平均价格与我国柑橘出口价格之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,测算了我国柑橘出口价格与收购价格之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,测算了我国柑橘收购价格与生产成本之差对柑橘生产成本的弹性,发现我国柑橘出口价格在实证期内受国际市场影响较强。
第二,从生产成本角度主要是劳动日平均工价角度,对我国柑橘出口比较优势的可持续性进行了定量长期预测,得出的结论具有新意。
第三,本文首次提出了柑橘出口比较优势可持续性及其临界点的概念,并进行了相关测算。研究表明,如果考虑汇率因素,我国柑橘劳动日平均工价以及柑橘实际稳定出口价格已经到达了导致出口比较优势开始丧失的第一临界点,但尚未到达致使出口比较优势完全丧失的第二临界点。
Citrus fruit is planted widely in the world, with high nutritional value. In our country, citrus are mainly planted in the south, with the most planted hectares and the most production quantities in the world now. Citrus are labor-intensive products, while our country has much labor resources. Since we joined WTO, the export volume and sales of citrus are highly improved, though, the export volume is small with the ratio about 5% of domestic production. Since 2004, the cost of agricultural means of production and labor have risen rapidly, and the phenomenon of "being lack of peasent-labor" has been more and more prevalent. In this situation, it is with great practical guiding mean to refer to the export comparative advantage of our citrus, to analyze its persistency, and to put forward strategy ideas.
This study applies Economics, Agricultural Economics, and International Trade comprehensively. And it manages to illustrate the law as to export comparative advantage and its persistency on China's citrus, and analyze the policy instructions the variables imply by means of integration of positive and normative studies and integration of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The other methods such as econometric models and describing statistical analysis are also used in course of the research.
This study is composed of 6 chapters in logical order. ChapterⅠis preface. In the preface, the purpose and significance of the topic studied are clarified; the related concepts are identified, which include comparative advantage, export comparative advantage, and the persistency of export comparative advantage. The recent development of the research in this area at home and abroad is synthesized; the structure and research methods of this study are expounded; the main creative ideas and the possible problems are introduced. ChapterⅡintroduces the comparative advantage theory and its developments, and sorts out the methods and indexes to estimate the comparative advantage. ChapterⅢtells the total harvest areas and total production quantities of citrus in our whole country, analyzes the production cost structure of citrus and its developing trend obtaining the conclusion that average labor-day cost is the main factor leading to the rising of production cost. Then it tells the present situation of citrus export, foreshadowing the next chapter. ChapterⅣchooses the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and International Market-Possessing Rates Index to measure the export comparative advantage of our citrus fruit, discovering that the export comparative advantage is strong at present. Meanwhile, it discusses the estimation result. ChapterⅤfirstly makes an empirical analysis of the citrus prices depending on their formation and the course of benefits distribution, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the average export price in the world and the export price of our country and the citrus production cost, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the export price and the purchasing price and the citrus production cost, and by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the purchasing price and the citrus production cost and the citrus production cost, discovering that our citrus export price was strongly influenced by international market. On this basis, it makes a short-term forecasting of the persistency of the export comparative advantage with ARMA model, and makes a long-run forecasting with the semi-log model in the direction of production cost especially in the direction of average labor-day cost. The long-term forecasting result shows that our citrus export comparative advantage is persistent now, because the average labor-day cost has not reach the second critical point, which makes the completely losing of export comparative advantage. If we consider the changing trend of exchange rate, the average labor-day cost and the real normal export price of our citrus has already reached the first critical point, which makes the beginning losing of the export comparative advantage. ChapterⅥgives advises to enhancing our citrus export comparative advantage.
The possible innovative points of this study may be as follow three.
First, it makes an empirical analysis of the citrus prices depending on their formation and the course of benefits distribution, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the average export price in the world and the export price of our country and the citrus production cost, by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the export price and the purchasing price and the citrus production cost, and by measuring the elasticity between the difference between the purchasing price and the citrus production cost and the citrus production cost, discovering that our citrus export price was strongly influenced by international market.
Second, it makes a long-run forecasting with the semi-log model in the direction of production cost especially in the direction of average labor-day cost. The conclusion obtained is new.
Third, it proposes the concept of the persistency of export comparative advantage and its critical point for the first time, and measures them. The research shows that our citrus export comparative advantage is persistent now, because the average labor-day cost has not reach the second critical point, which makes the completely losing of export comparative advantage. If we consider the changing trend of exchange rate, the average labor-day cost and the real normal export price of our citrus have already reached the first critical point, which makes the beginning losing of the export comparative advantage.
引文
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63. Kim H., Gopinath M. and Kim J.K. Competition between China and the United States in the Korean Food Market. Paper Prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting,2007, Portland
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40. 伍小梅.深加工视角下我国水果业的出口竞争力研究.[硕士学位论文].长沙：湖南大学,2006
41. 辛毅.中国主要农产品的完全生产成本与及其对农产品贸易的含义.[博士学位论文].北京：中国农业大学,2003
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49. 钟甫宁,徐志刚,傅龙波.中国粮食生产的地区比较优势及其对结构调整政策的涵义[J].南京农业大学学报,2001,1(1)：38-51
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