中小股民人格特征与投资决策研究
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摘要
对证券投资者人格类型进行分类,进一步探讨证券投资者人格特征对投资决策以及投资行为的影响,进而据此提出有针对性的投资建议,是金融心理学最新的研究方向之一。本研究主要探讨人格特征对投资决策的影响,进一步探讨人格特征、投资决策与投资行为之间的关系。采用《16种人格因素量表》(部分)、《决策心理问卷》和《投资行为问卷》对南昌市、北京市和郑州市等地区的326名中小股民进行问卷调查,使用SPSS16.0、AMOS18和LIEREL8.70统计软件对数据进行分析。对中小股民人格特征与投资决策进行回归分析,并建立中小股民人格特征、投资决策与投资行为关系模型。研究发现：1、在人格特征方面,中小股民在性别、年龄、文化程度和股龄等方面有显著差异。2、在投资决策方面,敢为性人格偏好于冒险决策,紧张性人格偏好于保守决策,独立性和实验性两种人格偏好于多种决策方法。3、人格特征、投资决策和投资行为之间是一个相互影响的过程,人格特征对投资决策产生直接影响,不同人格会选择不同的决策方式,人格特征对投资行为也产生直接影响。其次,人格特征通过决策方式对投资行为产生间接影响。根据本研究结果,可以为中小股民投资决策提供心理指导。
Classifying securities investors'personality type, further discussion of securities investor personality characteristics on the investment decision-making and investment behavior, and then putting forward some advice on investment, it is one of the newest research direction in financial psychology. This research explores how personality characteristics has influence on investment decision-making, further discussing the relationships among personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior. Cattell 16PF(part), Decision-making Psychological Questionnaire and Investment Behavior Questionnaire are adopted to evaluate the sample comprising 326 small shareholders from Nanchang, Beijing and Zhengzhou, using SPSS16.0, AMOS 18 and LIEREL8.70 statistical software for data analysis. This research builds regression analysis between small shareholders'personality characteristics and investment decisions-making, and frame relationship models among personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior. The main findings include the following points:1. In the personality characteristics, there were significant differences in gender, age, educational level and strands of age.2.In the decisions-making, social-boldness personality prefers to decision in the face of risk, tension personality prefers to conservative decision-making, openness-to-change and self-reliance personality prefer to uses all sorts of methods. 3.Personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior are a mutual influence process, personality traits has direct impact on investment decision-making, different personality can choose different ways of decision-making, personality traits has direct impact on investment behavior. Secondly, personality traits also has indirect impact on investment behavior through investment decision-making. According to the results of this study, it can provide psychological guidance for small shareholders on investment decisions-making.
Classifying securities investors'personality type, further discussion of securities investor personality characteristics on the investment decision-making and investment behavior, and then putting forward some advice on investment, it is one of the newest research direction in financial psychology. This research explores how personality characteristics has influence on investment decision-making, further discussing the relationships among personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior. Cattell 16PF(part), Decision-making Psychological Questionnaire and Investment Behavior Questionnaire are adopted to evaluate the sample comprising 326 small shareholders from Nanchang, Beijing and Zhengzhou, using SPSS16.0, AMOS 18 and LIEREL8.70 statistical software for data analysis. This research builds regression analysis between small shareholders'personality characteristics and investment decisions-making, and frame relationship models among personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior. The main findings include the following points:1. In the personality characteristics, there were significant differences in gender, age, educational level and strands of age.2.In the decisions-making, social-boldness personality prefers to decision in the face of risk, tension personality prefers to conservative decision-making, openness-to-change and self-reliance personality prefer to uses all sorts of methods. 3.Personality traits, investment decision-making and investment behavior are a mutual influence process, personality traits has direct impact on investment decision-making, different personality can choose different ways of decision-making, personality traits has direct impact on investment behavior. Secondly, personality traits also has indirect impact on investment behavior through investment decision-making. According to the results of this study, it can provide psychological guidance for small shareholders on investment decisions-making.
引文
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[70]Wermers R.Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices [J]. Journal oFinance,1999,54(2):581-622.
[71]Zakay D, Tuvia R. Choice latency times as determinants of post-decisional confidence. Acta Psychologica.1998:103-115.
①王自强,王浣尘.管理协同的核心要素[J].经济理论与经济管理,2005,(3).
① Von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, Oscar,1944 Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press.
② Savage L. Foundations of Statistics [M]. New York:Dover,1972.
① Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.,1973, On the Psychology of Prediction. Psychological Review, Vol.80,00. 237-251.
② Kahneman, D., and A. Tversky,1979, Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk, Econometric 47, 263-291.
③ Thaler H. Richard (1985). Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice.Marketing Science, vol.4, No.3:199-214.
① Keren, G, and P. M. P. Roelofsma. (1995). Immediacy and Certainty in Intertemporal Choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 63(3).287-297.
② Kahneman D, A Tversky. Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk [J], Econometrica,1979,47, 263-291.
③ Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, D.1981, The framing of decision and the psychology of choice, Science,211, 453-58.
④ Slovic, p., Griffin, D., and Tversky, A. Compatibility effects in judgment and choice, In R. M. Hogarth (ED.), Insights in decision making [J], Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1990.
① Soman, D., Contextual Effect of Payment Mechanism on Purchase Intention:Check or Charge? Unpublished Working Paper, University of Colorado,1997.
② Stein, J., Rational Capital budgeting in an irrational world [J], Journal of Business.1996,69:429-455.
③ Shafir, Diamond and Tversky. Money illusion [J], Quarterly Journal of Economies 1997 112:341-374.
④ Thaler, R, "Mental accounting matters", in:D. Kahneman and A.Tversky, eds. Choice [J], Values and Frames (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK),2000:241-268.
⑤ Camerer, C., Individual decision-making, in John H. Kagel, and Alvin E. Roth, ed.:The Hand book of Ex-perimental Economics [J], Princeton University Press, Prince-ton NJ,1995.
⑥ Kuran, T., and C. Sunstein, Availability cascades and risk regulation [J], Stanford Law Review,51,1999, PP.683-768.
①戴广平,靳晓龙.行为金融学对中国证券投资者行为的分析[J].商场现代化,2005,(7).
② Slovic P, Lichtenstein S. Comparison of Bayesian and Regression Approaches to the Study of Information Processing in Judgment [J], Organizational Behavior and Human Performance,1971(6):649-744.
③ De Bondt, Werner Thaler. Does the Stock Market Overreact [J]. Journal of Finance,1985,40:793-808.
④ Ellsberg, D., "Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms" [J], Quarterly Journal of Economies,1961,75:643-69.
⑤ Shefrin, H. M. and Thaler, R.,(1988), The behavioral life—Cycle hypothesis, Economic Inquiry [J],26(4), 609-643.
⑥ Kahneman, D., and Tversky,1979, prospect theory:Analysis of decision under risk,Econometric 47,263-291.
⑦ CHAN, HAMAO, and LAKONISHOK. Fundamentals and Stock Returns in Japan[J].Journal of Finance 1991,(1):133.
⑧ DISSANAIKE G. Are Stock Price Reversals Really Asymmetric? A Note [J], Journal of Banking & Finance 1996,(20):189-201.
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⑩李心丹,王冀宁,傅浩.中国个体证券投资者交易行为的实证研究[J].经济研究,2002,(11).
① De Long, Bradford J., Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. summers, and Robert J. Waldmann,1990a, Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets, The Journal of Political Economy, Volume 98,Issue4 (August):703-738.
② De Long, Bradford J., Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. summers, and Robert J. Waldmann,1990b, Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation, The Journal of Political Economy,Volume 45, Issue2 (June):379-395.
① Shefrin,Hersh. and Meir Statman,2000, Behavioral Portfolio Theory, Journey of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol.35, No.2 (June):127-151.
① Shefrin, Hersh, and Meir Statman,1994, Behavioral Capital Asset Pricing theory. Journey of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol.29, no.3 (Sep.):323-9.
②Hong. Harrison and Stein, Jeremy C,1999, A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets, The Journal of Finance, Vol. LIV, No.6, (December).
① Thaler, R., and E.J.Johnson,1999, Gambling with the house money and trying to break even:The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice,Management Science 36,643-660.
② Shiller. Robert J.,1990,Speculative Price and Popular Models,Journey of Economic Perspective,4,55-65.
③ March J G, Shapira Z. Variable Risk Preferences and the Focus of Attention [J]. Psychological Review,1992, 99:1722～1783.95.1994～2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved. http://www.cnki.net青岛大学学报(自然科学版),第19卷.
④ Kahneman Daniel, Mark W Riepe. Aspects of Investor Psychology [J]. Journal of Portfolio Management, 1998.
① Shefrin H. Behavioral Decision Making, Forecasting, Game Theory and Role-Play[J]. International Journal of Forecasting,2002 (18):375-382.
② Wermers R. Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices [J]. Journal oFinance,1999,54(2):581-622.
③ Kahneman Daniel, Amos Tversky. On the Psychology of Prediction [J]. Psychological Review,1973,80: 237-251.
④ Ritov I. Probability of Regret:Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution in Choice [J].Organizational Behavior and Human.
①沈世峰,吴世农.我国证券市场过度反应了吗?[J].经济研究，1999,(2).
②李诗林,李扬.沪深股票市场过度反应研究[J].管理评论,2003，15(6).
③ Harrison Hong, Jeffrey D.Kubik, and Jeremy C.Stein, "Social interaction And stock-market participation" 2001,NBER.
①J.Goldberg and R.V Nitzsch,Behavioral Finance(english edition),John Wiley & sons Ltd.2001,P125-150.
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①王自强.影响个体行为选择的内在因素研究[J].企业经济，2002,(7).
② Estes R, Hosseini J. The gender gap on Wall Street:An empirical analysis of confidence in investment decision-making. Journal of Psychology,1988,122(6):577
③ Zakay D, Tuvia R. Choice latency times as determinants of post-decisional confidence. Acta Psychologica. 1998:103-115.
④ Pulford, Briony D, Colman, Andrew M. Overconfidence, Base Rates and Outcome Positivity Negativity of predicted Events. British Journal of Psychology,1996,87(3):431-446.
⑤ Barberis N,Shleifer A, and r. Vishny. R. A Model of In-vestor Sentiment.Journal of financial Economics,1998, 49(3):307-343.
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