黑河流域上游高分辨率降水驱动分析及NoahLSM的径流响应模拟
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摘要
黑河流域是西北干旱区典型的内陆河流域,有限的水资源是制约当地社会经济发展的重要因素,上游产流区的水资源和水文、陆面过程一直是研究的热点。但目前在黑河流域上游仅有有限的高分辨率降水驱动数据,且数据质量并不清楚。另外目前黑河上游长时间跨度的、高时空分辨率、覆盖整个流域的Noah LSM陆面模拟研究比较少,故将单点的Noah LSM陆面过程模型扩展到二维,并应用黑河流域上游,加入汇流方法以检测流域整体的水热模拟效果。
本文应用黑河流域常用的三组驱动数据来源包括WRF、GLDAS和ITP数据集,制备了适宜Noah LSM2D模拟应用的5km驱动数据,参考观测资料设计评价方法详细对比分析了三组数据集中降水数据的特点,结合制备的土地利用类型图、土壤类型图等参数及经校准的模型参数,驱动离线耦合(OFFLINE)的Noah LSM和VIC汇流模块,模拟了2004～2009年逐小时、三小时、5km分辨率的黑河上游水热状况和上游出口径流量,结合多组观测数据对比分析了三组降水数据驱动下的水热模拟结果及径流模拟结果。得出的主要结论有：
(1)三组驱动数据均有各自不同的特点,建议模拟工作选用高时空分辨率的降水数据时,如需年份较长,建议采用年际间更稳定的GLDAS和ITP降水；如所需时间较短,鉴于GLDAS和ITP在总降水量、频率上的误差,WRF也能有较好的表现,推荐将三数据分别做模拟测试。在三组降水数据驱动Noah LSM耦合VIC汇流模块的模拟试验中,ITP降水数据表现出最好的水文模拟效果。
(2)应用WRF制备的驱动数据集和ITP、GLDAS数据集的降水数据能够很好的模拟出黑河上游的水热状况,并且积雪、土壤温度、土壤含水量等的模拟效果均比较好。
(3)三组数据的驱动下Noah LSM结合VIC汇流模块模拟的径流NSE最高可达0.66,说明该方法可以用于检验Noah LSM在流域2D模拟的模拟效果。
(4)降水数据的总量大小、强度分布、空间分布、时间对应等特征均分别强烈影响到径流的模拟效果,并且也影响到整个流域的水量平衡模拟。
The Heihe River basin (HRB) is a typical inland river basin in the arid and semiarid region of northwest China. With naturally limited water resources and irrational water utilization, water-related problems have become severe in HRB. To solve such problems, a number of studies on hydrology and water-heat process of HRB have been conducted in past years. However, no high-quality precipitation forcing data is available in HRB to support accurate modelling activities, and the data qualities of existing forcing datasets remain unclear. Meanwhile, long time scale, high temporal-spatial resolution simulations on the upper stream of HRB with a land surface model are rarely found in literature. Using Noah LSM coupled with a routing scheme to simulate2D water-heat processes in Heihe upper stream could be an effective way to detect the performance of simulation, and could also be a reference case of HRB upper stream water-heat simulation study. It is significant in land surface model and hydrological model research, and the model coupling method.
In this paper, we use three typical land surface model forcing datasets to force the coupled Noah LSM-VIC routing model. These datasets are WRF, GLDAS and ITP. Before simulations, a comprehensive comparative evaluation approach, consisting of a set of statistical indicators from both temporal and spatial aspects and comparisons against in situ observations from four established meteorological sites in the upper HRB, was proposed in this study. Then land use/land cover data, soil type data and other parameters were used to run the coupled Noah LSM-VIC routing model. The simulation is between2004-2009, with time resolutions of1hour and3hours, and a spatial resolution of5km. Simulation results include water-heat variables and runoff at outlet. Main findings are concluded as follows:
(1) Each dataset has its own advantages. GLDAS and ITP are recommended for long-term simulations. Except for that, GLDAS, ITP and WRF precipitation data should be carefully evaluated before simulation. In this study, ITP data have showed best hydrological simulation performance.
(2)Using forcing data produced by WRF and precipitation data from GLDAS and ITP, best simulation of the water-heat process in HRB upper stream can be achieved, especially in simulation of snow cover change, soil temperature and moisture.
(3) NSE of the runoff simulation could reach0.66, which show that the coupled approach is effective in evaluating the performance of simulation.
(4) Precipitation data plays an important role in simulation. Many items of precipitation data including magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution pattern could impact the water-heat and runoff simulation results.
本文应用黑河流域常用的三组驱动数据来源包括WRF、GLDAS和ITP数据集,制备了适宜Noah LSM2D模拟应用的5km驱动数据,参考观测资料设计评价方法详细对比分析了三组数据集中降水数据的特点,结合制备的土地利用类型图、土壤类型图等参数及经校准的模型参数,驱动离线耦合(OFFLINE)的Noah LSM和VIC汇流模块,模拟了2004～2009年逐小时、三小时、5km分辨率的黑河上游水热状况和上游出口径流量,结合多组观测数据对比分析了三组降水数据驱动下的水热模拟结果及径流模拟结果。得出的主要结论有：
(1)三组驱动数据均有各自不同的特点,建议模拟工作选用高时空分辨率的降水数据时,如需年份较长,建议采用年际间更稳定的GLDAS和ITP降水；如所需时间较短,鉴于GLDAS和ITP在总降水量、频率上的误差,WRF也能有较好的表现,推荐将三数据分别做模拟测试。在三组降水数据驱动Noah LSM耦合VIC汇流模块的模拟试验中,ITP降水数据表现出最好的水文模拟效果。
(2)应用WRF制备的驱动数据集和ITP、GLDAS数据集的降水数据能够很好的模拟出黑河上游的水热状况,并且积雪、土壤温度、土壤含水量等的模拟效果均比较好。
(3)三组数据的驱动下Noah LSM结合VIC汇流模块模拟的径流NSE最高可达0.66,说明该方法可以用于检验Noah LSM在流域2D模拟的模拟效果。
(4)降水数据的总量大小、强度分布、空间分布、时间对应等特征均分别强烈影响到径流的模拟效果,并且也影响到整个流域的水量平衡模拟。
The Heihe River basin (HRB) is a typical inland river basin in the arid and semiarid region of northwest China. With naturally limited water resources and irrational water utilization, water-related problems have become severe in HRB. To solve such problems, a number of studies on hydrology and water-heat process of HRB have been conducted in past years. However, no high-quality precipitation forcing data is available in HRB to support accurate modelling activities, and the data qualities of existing forcing datasets remain unclear. Meanwhile, long time scale, high temporal-spatial resolution simulations on the upper stream of HRB with a land surface model are rarely found in literature. Using Noah LSM coupled with a routing scheme to simulate2D water-heat processes in Heihe upper stream could be an effective way to detect the performance of simulation, and could also be a reference case of HRB upper stream water-heat simulation study. It is significant in land surface model and hydrological model research, and the model coupling method.
In this paper, we use three typical land surface model forcing datasets to force the coupled Noah LSM-VIC routing model. These datasets are WRF, GLDAS and ITP. Before simulations, a comprehensive comparative evaluation approach, consisting of a set of statistical indicators from both temporal and spatial aspects and comparisons against in situ observations from four established meteorological sites in the upper HRB, was proposed in this study. Then land use/land cover data, soil type data and other parameters were used to run the coupled Noah LSM-VIC routing model. The simulation is between2004-2009, with time resolutions of1hour and3hours, and a spatial resolution of5km. Simulation results include water-heat variables and runoff at outlet. Main findings are concluded as follows:
(1) Each dataset has its own advantages. GLDAS and ITP are recommended for long-term simulations. Except for that, GLDAS, ITP and WRF precipitation data should be carefully evaluated before simulation. In this study, ITP data have showed best hydrological simulation performance.
(2)Using forcing data produced by WRF and precipitation data from GLDAS and ITP, best simulation of the water-heat process in HRB upper stream can be achieved, especially in simulation of snow cover change, soil temperature and moisture.
(3) NSE of the runoff simulation could reach0.66, which show that the coupled approach is effective in evaluating the performance of simulation.
(4) Precipitation data plays an important role in simulation. Many items of precipitation data including magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution pattern could impact the water-heat and runoff simulation results.
引文
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