企业异质性、贸易成本与服务业生产率
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摘要
贸易成本与生产率之间的关系是国际贸易研究的重要论题之一,然而,迄今为止围绕该论题的多数研究都隐含了一个假定,即一个行业内的所有企业是同质的,出口部门的所有企业均参与出口。但现实世界并非如此,参与国际贸易的企业存在差异(特别是生产率差异)是个普遍现象。大量的经验研究显示,不论是服务部门还是商品部门,出口企业的生产率要高于非出口企业,且参与贸易的企业只是该部门中的一小部分,这是因为出口沉没成本的存在导致异质性企业的行为选择存在差异,生产率更高的企业更倾向于参与国际贸易。在此背景下,国际贸易理论研究的最新进展突破了代表性企业的分析框架,转而在企业异质性条件下研究贸易成本下降的生产率效应。囿于数据原因,目前对该领域的研究仍主要局限于商品领域,对服务贸易的相关研究还极其有限。在经济服务化、服务全球化的今天,服务企业参与国际贸易的程度逐步提高,使得我们以最新的贸易理论为支撑,来考察贸易成本影响服务业生产率的微观机理以及实际表现显得尤为重要。因此,本文研究的目的在于,结合中国服务业生产率的行业异质性事实,进一步在服务企业异质性条件下,探讨贸易成本下降促进服务业生产率提升的微观机理,并利用世界投入产出表数据详细测度国际服务贸易成本,进而对服务贸易成本的服务业生产率效应进行经验考察。
在理论层面上,本文从异质性企业在服务全球化背景下的动态行为视角,探讨贸易成本下降促进服务业生产率提升的微观机理。首先,在企业生产率保持不变的假定下,揭示异质性企业在贸易成本下降背景下的生产及出口决策,并通过行业内资源再配置效应影响服务业生产率的微观机理。行业内资源再配置效应的机理可概括为：贸易成本下降→出口扩张、进口渗透和竞争加剧→低生产率企业退出市场(选择效应)和资源向高生产率企业转移(份额转移效应)→服务业生产率提升。进一步,引入服务企业的内生技术选择假设,在企业生产率可变的假定下,揭示异质性企业在贸易成本下降背景下的出口及技术选择决策,并通过企业技术选择效应影响服务业生产率的微观机理。服务企业技术选择效应的机理可概括为：贸易成本下降→出口扩张、进口渗透和竞争加剧→高技术的引入成本降低→更多企业采用高技术→行业内技术进步→服务业生产率提升。最后以此为基础,提出了“服务贸易成本下降促进服务业生产率及其增长”的理论假说。
在实证层面上,首先,基于中国服务业的最新修订数据,对各行业的生产率进行测算和分析,发现服务业全要素生产率(TFP)整体呈上升趋势,但存在较大的行业异质性,对此我们提出了三种可能的解释；基于细分行业层面的服务进出口和TFP数据,在考虑内生性偏误后的固定效应估计结果显示,样本期内服务进口而非出口显著促进了中国服务业生产率提升。其次,基于具有微观理论基础的测度方法和世界投入产出表数据计算了世界各国的双边及单边服务贸易成本,并与商品贸易成本进行了对比分析。结果发现,不论是总体样本还是按收入水平的国家分类样本,服务贸易成本远远高于商品贸易成本,但两者均处于下降通道,且服务贸易成本的下降速度低于商品贸易成本；针对中国的测算表明,中国对外双边服务贸易成本与商品贸易成本均呈下降趋势,且与高收入经济体的贸易成本低于与中等收入经济体。各部门的贸易成本从高到底依次是：生活性服务业、电力燃气及水的生产和供应业、建筑业、生产性服务业、农业、采矿业和制造业。第三,基于数理模型分析以及前期文献的经验模型设定,采用大样本数据考察了服务贸易成本对服务业生产率的实际影响。跨国面板的估计结果显示,服务部门与商品部门相同,更低的贸易成本与更高的生产率及更快的生产率增长相联系,且这一效应主要体现在生产性服务部门。服务贸易成本下降的生产率水平及其增长效应远远低于商品部门；然而,在对中国双边服务贸易成本与服务业生产率的检验中,我们发现技术差距对服务业生产率及其增长的解释力最强,但未发现服务贸易成本下降提升服务业生产率及其增长的经验证据,将其称为“中国对外双边服务贸易成本的生产率效应悖论”,对此我们提出了三种可能的解释。
基于理论分析及经验考察,本文提出了相应的政策启示以实现中国服务经济的崛起,具有较强的现实意义。尽管如此,与商品贸易的相关研究相比,我们对服务贸易的研究深度仍是不够的。在服务企业层面的贸易数据(包括中国)可以获得时,我们将进一步对服务贸易成本的行业内资源再配置效应以及企业技术选择效应进行深入考察,并对“中国对外双边服务贸易成本的生产率效应悖论”问题做进一步的原因透视和学理分析。
The relationship between trade costs and productivity is one of the important topics in international trade research; however, so far most of the studies about this topic have a hypothesis that all firms within one industry are homogeneous. But in the real world it is a common phenomenon that firms participaing in international trade are different (especially the productivity differences). A large number of empirical research have shown that no matter in services sectors or in goods sectors, the productivity of export firms is higher than non-export firms', and firms participating in trade is just a small part of that sector, this is because the existence of sunk costs leads to different choices among heterogeneous export firms, more productive firms tend to participate in international trade. In this background, the latest researches regarding international trade theory break through the representative firms' analytical framework, and turn to study the productivity effects of trade costs reduction under the firm heterogeneity trade theory. Constrained by the data, the research in this area is still largely confined to goods sectors; the related research of service trade is extremely limited. With the rise of service economy and globalization, the level of service firms participating in international trade has gradually growing, so it is significant for us to survey the micro mechanisms and actual performances of trade costs affecting services productivity. The purposes of this dissertation are studing the industry heterogeneity of China's service sectors, exploring micro mechanisms of trade costs reduction promoting productivity improvements under service firm heterogeneity, using world input-output table data to measure costs of international trade in services by, and empirically investigate the productivity effects of service trade costs.
At the theoretical level, this dissertation investigates the micro mechanisms of trade costs reduction promoting the productivity improvements in service sectors from the perspective of heterogenous firms' dynamic behavior. Firstly, under the assumption of constant firm productivity, we reveal the production and export decision-making of heterogeneous firms, and the micro mechanism of resources reallocation affecting the services productivity in the context of trade costs decline. The mechanism of resource reallocation effects can be summarized as follows:trade costs reduction→export expansion, import penetration and increased competition→low-productive firms exit (selection effect) and the resources transfering to high-productive firms (share-shifting effect)→productivity improvement in services. Furthermore, with the introduction of service firms' endogenous technology choice and the assumption of variable firm productivity, we reveal the micro mechanism of technology choice affecting services productivity. The mechanism of firm technology choice effects can be summarized as follows: trade costs reduction→export expansion, import penetration and increased competition→cost decline of introducing high-tech→more firms to adopt high-tech→industry technology progress→productivity improvement in services. Finally, a theory hypothesis that trade costs decline can promote service productivity and its growth is proposed.
At the empirical level, first of all, based on the latest revision data of China's services industry, we calculate and analyze the services productivity, and find that the total factor productivity (TFP) is rising, but there exists a big industry heterogeneity for which we put forward three possible explanations; based on the data of service trade and TFP and the consideration of endogenous bias, the fixed effects regression results show that it is service import rather than export promoting productivity growth of China's service industries. Secondly, on the basis of micro-based method and world input-output table data, we measure the bilateral and unilateral service trade costs, and find that service trade costs are far higher than that of trade in goods, and the decline rate of service trade costs is lower than that of goods trade. The measurement for China shows that China's foreign bilateral trade costs in services and goods trade are both in downward trend, and the costs of trading with middle-income economies are higher than that of trading with high-income economies. The order of costs from high to low is: consumer services; electricity, gas and water production and supply; construction; producer services; agriculture; mining; and manufacturing. Thirdly, based on the theory analysis and pre-literature's empirical model setting, we exam the effect of trade costs on services productivity. The results of cross-county panel estimation show that the lower trade costs are linked to higher productivity and faster productivity growth for both service and goods sectors and this effect is mainly reflected in the producer services. The productivity and growth effects of trade costs decline in services are much lower than that of goods sectors. However, in the empirical test for China, we find that the technology gap's explanatory power is strongest for service sectors, but no evidence show service trade costs decline can promote services productivity, which can be called "productivity effects paradox of China's bilateral service trade costs" for which we put forward three possible explanations.
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical investigation, we put forward some corresponding policy implications which have strong practical significance for China's service economy. However, compared with trade in goods, the research for services trade is still not enough. When the firm-level data of service trade (including China) can be obtained, we will further investigate resources reallocation effects and technology choice effects of service trade costs on services productivity, and explain the productivity effects paradox of China's foreign bilateral service trade costs.
在理论层面上,本文从异质性企业在服务全球化背景下的动态行为视角,探讨贸易成本下降促进服务业生产率提升的微观机理。首先,在企业生产率保持不变的假定下,揭示异质性企业在贸易成本下降背景下的生产及出口决策,并通过行业内资源再配置效应影响服务业生产率的微观机理。行业内资源再配置效应的机理可概括为：贸易成本下降→出口扩张、进口渗透和竞争加剧→低生产率企业退出市场(选择效应)和资源向高生产率企业转移(份额转移效应)→服务业生产率提升。进一步,引入服务企业的内生技术选择假设,在企业生产率可变的假定下,揭示异质性企业在贸易成本下降背景下的出口及技术选择决策,并通过企业技术选择效应影响服务业生产率的微观机理。服务企业技术选择效应的机理可概括为：贸易成本下降→出口扩张、进口渗透和竞争加剧→高技术的引入成本降低→更多企业采用高技术→行业内技术进步→服务业生产率提升。最后以此为基础,提出了“服务贸易成本下降促进服务业生产率及其增长”的理论假说。
在实证层面上,首先,基于中国服务业的最新修订数据,对各行业的生产率进行测算和分析,发现服务业全要素生产率(TFP)整体呈上升趋势,但存在较大的行业异质性,对此我们提出了三种可能的解释；基于细分行业层面的服务进出口和TFP数据,在考虑内生性偏误后的固定效应估计结果显示,样本期内服务进口而非出口显著促进了中国服务业生产率提升。其次,基于具有微观理论基础的测度方法和世界投入产出表数据计算了世界各国的双边及单边服务贸易成本,并与商品贸易成本进行了对比分析。结果发现,不论是总体样本还是按收入水平的国家分类样本,服务贸易成本远远高于商品贸易成本,但两者均处于下降通道,且服务贸易成本的下降速度低于商品贸易成本；针对中国的测算表明,中国对外双边服务贸易成本与商品贸易成本均呈下降趋势,且与高收入经济体的贸易成本低于与中等收入经济体。各部门的贸易成本从高到底依次是：生活性服务业、电力燃气及水的生产和供应业、建筑业、生产性服务业、农业、采矿业和制造业。第三,基于数理模型分析以及前期文献的经验模型设定,采用大样本数据考察了服务贸易成本对服务业生产率的实际影响。跨国面板的估计结果显示,服务部门与商品部门相同,更低的贸易成本与更高的生产率及更快的生产率增长相联系,且这一效应主要体现在生产性服务部门。服务贸易成本下降的生产率水平及其增长效应远远低于商品部门；然而,在对中国双边服务贸易成本与服务业生产率的检验中,我们发现技术差距对服务业生产率及其增长的解释力最强,但未发现服务贸易成本下降提升服务业生产率及其增长的经验证据,将其称为“中国对外双边服务贸易成本的生产率效应悖论”,对此我们提出了三种可能的解释。
基于理论分析及经验考察,本文提出了相应的政策启示以实现中国服务经济的崛起,具有较强的现实意义。尽管如此,与商品贸易的相关研究相比,我们对服务贸易的研究深度仍是不够的。在服务企业层面的贸易数据(包括中国)可以获得时,我们将进一步对服务贸易成本的行业内资源再配置效应以及企业技术选择效应进行深入考察,并对“中国对外双边服务贸易成本的生产率效应悖论”问题做进一步的原因透视和学理分析。
The relationship between trade costs and productivity is one of the important topics in international trade research; however, so far most of the studies about this topic have a hypothesis that all firms within one industry are homogeneous. But in the real world it is a common phenomenon that firms participaing in international trade are different (especially the productivity differences). A large number of empirical research have shown that no matter in services sectors or in goods sectors, the productivity of export firms is higher than non-export firms', and firms participating in trade is just a small part of that sector, this is because the existence of sunk costs leads to different choices among heterogeneous export firms, more productive firms tend to participate in international trade. In this background, the latest researches regarding international trade theory break through the representative firms' analytical framework, and turn to study the productivity effects of trade costs reduction under the firm heterogeneity trade theory. Constrained by the data, the research in this area is still largely confined to goods sectors; the related research of service trade is extremely limited. With the rise of service economy and globalization, the level of service firms participating in international trade has gradually growing, so it is significant for us to survey the micro mechanisms and actual performances of trade costs affecting services productivity. The purposes of this dissertation are studing the industry heterogeneity of China's service sectors, exploring micro mechanisms of trade costs reduction promoting productivity improvements under service firm heterogeneity, using world input-output table data to measure costs of international trade in services by, and empirically investigate the productivity effects of service trade costs.
At the theoretical level, this dissertation investigates the micro mechanisms of trade costs reduction promoting the productivity improvements in service sectors from the perspective of heterogenous firms' dynamic behavior. Firstly, under the assumption of constant firm productivity, we reveal the production and export decision-making of heterogeneous firms, and the micro mechanism of resources reallocation affecting the services productivity in the context of trade costs decline. The mechanism of resource reallocation effects can be summarized as follows:trade costs reduction→export expansion, import penetration and increased competition→low-productive firms exit (selection effect) and the resources transfering to high-productive firms (share-shifting effect)→productivity improvement in services. Furthermore, with the introduction of service firms' endogenous technology choice and the assumption of variable firm productivity, we reveal the micro mechanism of technology choice affecting services productivity. The mechanism of firm technology choice effects can be summarized as follows: trade costs reduction→export expansion, import penetration and increased competition→cost decline of introducing high-tech→more firms to adopt high-tech→industry technology progress→productivity improvement in services. Finally, a theory hypothesis that trade costs decline can promote service productivity and its growth is proposed.
At the empirical level, first of all, based on the latest revision data of China's services industry, we calculate and analyze the services productivity, and find that the total factor productivity (TFP) is rising, but there exists a big industry heterogeneity for which we put forward three possible explanations; based on the data of service trade and TFP and the consideration of endogenous bias, the fixed effects regression results show that it is service import rather than export promoting productivity growth of China's service industries. Secondly, on the basis of micro-based method and world input-output table data, we measure the bilateral and unilateral service trade costs, and find that service trade costs are far higher than that of trade in goods, and the decline rate of service trade costs is lower than that of goods trade. The measurement for China shows that China's foreign bilateral trade costs in services and goods trade are both in downward trend, and the costs of trading with middle-income economies are higher than that of trading with high-income economies. The order of costs from high to low is: consumer services; electricity, gas and water production and supply; construction; producer services; agriculture; mining; and manufacturing. Thirdly, based on the theory analysis and pre-literature's empirical model setting, we exam the effect of trade costs on services productivity. The results of cross-county panel estimation show that the lower trade costs are linked to higher productivity and faster productivity growth for both service and goods sectors and this effect is mainly reflected in the producer services. The productivity and growth effects of trade costs decline in services are much lower than that of goods sectors. However, in the empirical test for China, we find that the technology gap's explanatory power is strongest for service sectors, but no evidence show service trade costs decline can promote services productivity, which can be called "productivity effects paradox of China's bilateral service trade costs" for which we put forward three possible explanations.
Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical investigation, we put forward some corresponding policy implications which have strong practical significance for China's service economy. However, compared with trade in goods, the research for services trade is still not enough. When the firm-level data of service trade (including China) can be obtained, we will further investigate resources reallocation effects and technology choice effects of service trade costs on services productivity, and explain the productivity effects paradox of China's foreign bilateral service trade costs.
引文
① 本章的部分内容已发表于《经济研究》,可参见王恕立、胡宗彪(2012)。
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