上海轨道交通网络建设期风险体系研究
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摘要
上海轨道交通网络建设具有工程规模庞大、投资总额高、建设期集中、建设强度大等特点。轨道交通单线建设时期的个别风险源可能在网络化建设时代引发的工程损失呈几何级放大,并已经集中出现了大量原来不曾面对的新风险源。为安全推进工程建设,规避轨道交通网络建设风险,有必要对轨道交通网络各建设阶段的风险辨识和风险管理进行深入而系统研究。
本文首先介绍了上海城市轨道交通网络的规划情况和建设概况,分析了轨道交通网络建设特点,并在此基础上提出了上海轨道交通网络建设的风险管理要求。其次,针对工程风险管理的理论及方法进行了分析,并详细介绍了常用的风险分析方法和分级标准。接着,针对轨道交通网络建设准备期和地下结构工程施工期各环节存在的风险进行了定性的分析和辨识,并对应的提出了风险控制方法。进一步,本文对轨道交通网络节点施工存在的风险进行了着重辨识及分析。节点工程分为交叉穿越隧道和换乘枢纽车站两种情况,根据不同的工程特征,实例分析了两种情况下应重点关注的工程风险以及风险控制方法。并以1号线徐家汇枢纽港汇广场换乘通道的施工为例,论证了风险辨识和风险管理对安全建设的重要性。最后,本文对轨道交通网络建设准备期、施工期的风险进行了归纳,并提出了建立安全风险管理体系的框架思路。
The construction process of Shanghai rail transit network has characteristics with great engineering scale, high investment, concentrated period and great intensity etc. In rail transit network construction, a damage that may be caused by several risk sources during the period of construction single line has been increased. And it has appeared lots of new risk sources which haven't occurred before. For pushing forward the construction smoothly and avoiding the risk of rail transit network construction, it is important to study the risk identification and management in each construction process of rail transit network.
Fist, this paper has introduced the Shanghai rail transit network planning and construction status, analyzed the characteristics of construction and given further Shanghai transit network construction of risk management requirements. Secondly, it has been analyzed on engineering risk management theory and methods and it has been introduced about some of the risk analysis methods and classification standards. Thirdly, it has been analyzed identified for the risk of rail transit network construction preparation and underground structure engineering construction and given the risk control method. What’s more, it has been identified and analyzed on the risk of rail transit network node construction in this paper. The circumstances on nodes engineering includes cross through tunnel and hubs station. According to the different engineering characteristics, an example has been analyzed and it should be focused on the engineering risk and risk controlling method in the two circumstances. With the example of the construction in No.1 XuJiahui hub port transformation channel, the importance of safety construction on the risk identification and risk management has been demonstrated.
Finally, this paper has summarized the risk of the rail transit network during the construction and preparation period. And a risk management system of establishing safe framework has been presented.
本文首先介绍了上海城市轨道交通网络的规划情况和建设概况,分析了轨道交通网络建设特点,并在此基础上提出了上海轨道交通网络建设的风险管理要求。其次,针对工程风险管理的理论及方法进行了分析,并详细介绍了常用的风险分析方法和分级标准。接着,针对轨道交通网络建设准备期和地下结构工程施工期各环节存在的风险进行了定性的分析和辨识,并对应的提出了风险控制方法。进一步,本文对轨道交通网络节点施工存在的风险进行了着重辨识及分析。节点工程分为交叉穿越隧道和换乘枢纽车站两种情况,根据不同的工程特征,实例分析了两种情况下应重点关注的工程风险以及风险控制方法。并以1号线徐家汇枢纽港汇广场换乘通道的施工为例,论证了风险辨识和风险管理对安全建设的重要性。最后,本文对轨道交通网络建设准备期、施工期的风险进行了归纳,并提出了建立安全风险管理体系的框架思路。
The construction process of Shanghai rail transit network has characteristics with great engineering scale, high investment, concentrated period and great intensity etc. In rail transit network construction, a damage that may be caused by several risk sources during the period of construction single line has been increased. And it has appeared lots of new risk sources which haven't occurred before. For pushing forward the construction smoothly and avoiding the risk of rail transit network construction, it is important to study the risk identification and management in each construction process of rail transit network.
Fist, this paper has introduced the Shanghai rail transit network planning and construction status, analyzed the characteristics of construction and given further Shanghai transit network construction of risk management requirements. Secondly, it has been analyzed on engineering risk management theory and methods and it has been introduced about some of the risk analysis methods and classification standards. Thirdly, it has been analyzed identified for the risk of rail transit network construction preparation and underground structure engineering construction and given the risk control method. What’s more, it has been identified and analyzed on the risk of rail transit network node construction in this paper. The circumstances on nodes engineering includes cross through tunnel and hubs station. According to the different engineering characteristics, an example has been analyzed and it should be focused on the engineering risk and risk controlling method in the two circumstances. With the example of the construction in No.1 XuJiahui hub port transformation channel, the importance of safety construction on the risk identification and risk management has been demonstrated.
Finally, this paper has summarized the risk of the rail transit network during the construction and preparation period. And a risk management system of establishing safe framework has been presented.
引文
[1] Mehr, Hedges,Risk Management in Business Enterprise [M] . 1963.
[2] Einstein H. H, Vick S. G.,Geological model for tunnel cost model [C]. Proc Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conf, 2nd, 1974, 1701-1720.
[3] Einstein H. H, Chiabverio F. & Koppel U., Risk analysis for Alder tunnel [J]. Tunnels & Tunnelling, 1994, 9(1), 28-30.
[4] Einstein H. H. Risk and Risk Analysis in Rock Engineering [J]. Tunneling and Underground Space Technology [J]. 1996. 11(2), 141-155.
[5] Einstein H. H., Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering [J]. Geomechanics Abstracts Volume. Issue: 1. 1997(1), 30.
[6] Sinfield. J.V., Einstein. H.H. Evaluation of tunnelling technology using the“Decision Aids for Tunnelling [J]. Geomechanics Abstracts Volume. Issue: 3. 1997(5). 186.
[7] Salazar, The research on the uncertainty and applicability of economically evaluation in the tunnel design and construction.Ph.D Thesis, University of Cambriage, 1983.
[8] Bj?rn Nilsen, Geo-investigation procedures for subsea tunnels [J]. Geoexploration, 1987, 24(3), 279-286.
[9] J. B. Burland, J. R. Standing, F. M. Jardine. Building response to tunnelling: case studies from the Jubilee line Extension London [M], 2001.
[10] M.D. Ryley, P.E. Johnson, M.P. O'Reilly. Measurements of ground movements around three tunnels in loose cohesionless soil: Transport and Road Research Lab laboratory report [J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts, 1981 (18), 11-18.
[11] T. Isaksson and H. Stille, Model for Estimation of Time and Cost for Tunnel Projects Based on Risk Evaluation [J]. Rock Mech. Rock Engng. 2005, 38 (5), 373–398.
[12] David N. Chapman, Sung K. Ahn , Dexter V.L. Hunt , Andrew H.C. Chan. The use of model tests to investigate the ground displacements associated with multiple tunnel construction in soil [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2006 21 (3), 413-419.
[13] Chungsik Yoo, Jae-hoon Kim, A web-based tunneling-induced building/utility damage assessment system: TURISK [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2003, 18 (5), 97-511.
[14] Mellors, Tunnel risk management code in Britain, 2004.
[15] S?ren Degn Eskesen, Per Tengborg, J?rgen Kampmann, Trine HolstVeicherts.Guidelines for Tunnelling Risk Management,International Tunnel Association Working Group No. 2 [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology .2004, 19 (3): 217–237.
[16] Reilly J. and Brown J.,Management and control of cost and risk for tunneling and infrastructure projects [J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 2004,19 (4-5) :330.
[17] Woong-Suk Yoo, Korean Risk Management Practices: a Contractor’s Perspective (SK E&C), 2004.
[18] Jamal F. Al-Bahar, Keith C.Crandall. Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects [J], Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1990,9(7),324–329.
[19] J.H.M.Tah, V.Carr. Knowledge-Based Approach to Construction Project Risk Management[J], Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2001,19(7),324–339.
[20]丁士昭,曹萍.地铁项目的建设实施策划研究[J],地下空间与开发学报,2006(4):20-24
[21] I. McFeat-Smith, K.W. Harman. IMS risk evaluation system for financing and insuring tunnel projects [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2004, 19 (3): 334–339.
[22]游步上,沈劲利,隧道交叉段破坏区位之探讨[C],首届全球华人岩土工程论坛,同济大学出版社2003
[23]白峰青,卢兰萍,姜兴阁.地下工程的可靠性与风险决策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2000(3):237-239
[24]沈景炎,线路客流预测分析与运营组织设计[J],都市快轨交通,2007(3):3-7
[25]范益群,隧道复合防火安全设计[J],消防科学与技术,2008(3):200-207
[26]黄宏伟,隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J],地下空间与工程学报,2006(1):16-17
[27]黄宏伟,曾明,陈亮等.基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件(TRM1. 0)开发[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):36-41
[28]王岩,黄宏伟.地铁区间隧道安全评价的层次-模糊综合评判法[J].地下空间,2004,24(3):301-305
[29]陈龙.城市软土盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评价研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004
[30]陈龙,黄宏伟.上中路隧道工程风险管理的实践[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):67-68
[31]陶履彬,张奎鸿,汪炳礛.上海市崇明越江通道工程风险分析研究[C],第二届全国公路科技创新高层论坛论文集(上卷)2004: 84-89
[32]白云,汤竞,毛建民.试论地下工程风险管理中参建各方的地位与作用[J]土木工程学报,2009(1):124-129
[33]赵勇.隧道施工安全事故的原因分析及对策建议[J],铁道标准设计,2007(增刊1):1-4
[34]李希元,闫静雅,孙艳萍.盾构隧道施工工程事故的原因与对策[J],地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(6):968-971
[35]郭庆智.规范隧道施工的主要技术措施[J],铁道建筑,2007(6):44-46
[36]毛儒.隧道工程风险评价[J].隧道建设,2003,5(23):2-3
[2] Einstein H. H, Vick S. G.,Geological model for tunnel cost model [C]. Proc Rapid Excavation and Tunneling Conf, 2nd, 1974, 1701-1720.
[3] Einstein H. H, Chiabverio F. & Koppel U., Risk analysis for Alder tunnel [J]. Tunnels & Tunnelling, 1994, 9(1), 28-30.
[4] Einstein H. H. Risk and Risk Analysis in Rock Engineering [J]. Tunneling and Underground Space Technology [J]. 1996. 11(2), 141-155.
[5] Einstein H. H., Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering [J]. Geomechanics Abstracts Volume. Issue: 1. 1997(1), 30.
[6] Sinfield. J.V., Einstein. H.H. Evaluation of tunnelling technology using the“Decision Aids for Tunnelling [J]. Geomechanics Abstracts Volume. Issue: 3. 1997(5). 186.
[7] Salazar, The research on the uncertainty and applicability of economically evaluation in the tunnel design and construction.Ph.D Thesis, University of Cambriage, 1983.
[8] Bj?rn Nilsen, Geo-investigation procedures for subsea tunnels [J]. Geoexploration, 1987, 24(3), 279-286.
[9] J. B. Burland, J. R. Standing, F. M. Jardine. Building response to tunnelling: case studies from the Jubilee line Extension London [M], 2001.
[10] M.D. Ryley, P.E. Johnson, M.P. O'Reilly. Measurements of ground movements around three tunnels in loose cohesionless soil: Transport and Road Research Lab laboratory report [J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts, 1981 (18), 11-18.
[11] T. Isaksson and H. Stille, Model for Estimation of Time and Cost for Tunnel Projects Based on Risk Evaluation [J]. Rock Mech. Rock Engng. 2005, 38 (5), 373–398.
[12] David N. Chapman, Sung K. Ahn , Dexter V.L. Hunt , Andrew H.C. Chan. The use of model tests to investigate the ground displacements associated with multiple tunnel construction in soil [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2006 21 (3), 413-419.
[13] Chungsik Yoo, Jae-hoon Kim, A web-based tunneling-induced building/utility damage assessment system: TURISK [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2003, 18 (5), 97-511.
[14] Mellors, Tunnel risk management code in Britain, 2004.
[15] S?ren Degn Eskesen, Per Tengborg, J?rgen Kampmann, Trine HolstVeicherts.Guidelines for Tunnelling Risk Management,International Tunnel Association Working Group No. 2 [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology .2004, 19 (3): 217–237.
[16] Reilly J. and Brown J.,Management and control of cost and risk for tunneling and infrastructure projects [J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 2004,19 (4-5) :330.
[17] Woong-Suk Yoo, Korean Risk Management Practices: a Contractor’s Perspective (SK E&C), 2004.
[18] Jamal F. Al-Bahar, Keith C.Crandall. Systematic Risk Management Approach for Construction Projects [J], Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 1990,9(7),324–329.
[19] J.H.M.Tah, V.Carr. Knowledge-Based Approach to Construction Project Risk Management[J], Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering, 2001,19(7),324–339.
[20]丁士昭,曹萍.地铁项目的建设实施策划研究[J],地下空间与开发学报,2006(4):20-24
[21] I. McFeat-Smith, K.W. Harman. IMS risk evaluation system for financing and insuring tunnel projects [J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2004, 19 (3): 334–339.
[22]游步上,沈劲利,隧道交叉段破坏区位之探讨[C],首届全球华人岩土工程论坛,同济大学出版社2003
[23]白峰青,卢兰萍,姜兴阁.地下工程的可靠性与风险决策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2000(3):237-239
[24]沈景炎,线路客流预测分析与运营组织设计[J],都市快轨交通,2007(3):3-7
[25]范益群,隧道复合防火安全设计[J],消防科学与技术,2008(3):200-207
[26]黄宏伟,隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J],地下空间与工程学报,2006(1):16-17
[27]黄宏伟,曾明,陈亮等.基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件(TRM1. 0)开发[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):36-41
[28]王岩,黄宏伟.地铁区间隧道安全评价的层次-模糊综合评判法[J].地下空间,2004,24(3):301-305
[29]陈龙.城市软土盾构隧道施工期风险分析与评价研究[D].上海:同济大学,2004
[30]陈龙,黄宏伟.上中路隧道工程风险管理的实践[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):67-68
[31]陶履彬,张奎鸿,汪炳礛.上海市崇明越江通道工程风险分析研究[C],第二届全国公路科技创新高层论坛论文集(上卷)2004: 84-89
[32]白云,汤竞,毛建民.试论地下工程风险管理中参建各方的地位与作用[J]土木工程学报,2009(1):124-129
[33]赵勇.隧道施工安全事故的原因分析及对策建议[J],铁道标准设计,2007(增刊1):1-4
[34]李希元,闫静雅,孙艳萍.盾构隧道施工工程事故的原因与对策[J],地下空间与工程学报,2005,1(6):968-971
[35]郭庆智.规范隧道施工的主要技术措施[J],铁道建筑,2007(6):44-46
[36]毛儒.隧道工程风险评价[J].隧道建设,2003,5(23):2-3