基于GIS的荆江分蓄洪区洪灾损失动态评估及系统实现
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摘要
洪灾损失评估在防洪规划以及法规制定、洪水灾害风险管理、防洪减灾效益评估、洪水保险等方面都起着极其重要的作用。国内外专家对于洪灾损失评估的理论与方法已做了许多的研究探索。本文的研究任务来源于国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)课题《坝堤溃决风险分析理论与评估方法》(课题编号:2007CB714107)。研究工作针对荆江分蓄洪区开展了应用示范,具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。
本文首先针对洪灾区域内社会经济指标空间分布不均匀的情况,研究了社会经济数据空间展布的理论与方法;然后针对洪水分布特性的强不规则性问题,提出了一种基于GIS空间数据分析与二维洪水演进模型计算相结合的洪水淹没特性动态评价模型;最后,在研究了基于淹没特性分析的洪灾损失计算方法后,采用基于数据交换的松散耦合设计方式,设计并实现了洪灾损失动态评估模型。该模型主要分为三大模块:动态淹没分析模块、损失计算模块和空间属性数据综合管理模块。动态淹没分析模块基于GIS空间分析功能设计实现,而损失计算模块采用软件编程实现,这两个模块之间的交互通过数据库存取操作进行,空间属性数据综合管理模块主要实现空间属性数据的动态展示和维护。与现有的静态洪灾损失评估模型不同,本文提出的动态评估模型可以实现每个时段淹没程度的直观展示和实时灾害损失评估,即洪水演进历程时间与淹没范围、水深、灾害损失状况都以栅格形式呈现和存储,易于决策者查询参考。该损失评估模型,利用了二维洪水演进计算结果,评估过程充分反应了地区的土地利用分布特点,经济分布特征以及洪水演进特性,将GIS手段与损失评估数学模型进行结合,计算结果准确,有较大的实用价值。
基于上述模型和方法开发的洪灾损失动态评估系统已应用于荆江分蓄洪区、漳河水库和佛山实验区;本文以荆江分蓄洪区为实例,验证了系统模型的有效性与实用性。
The flood disaster loss assessment plays an important role in flood control planning, flood risk management, flood insurance, flood control and disaster mitigation assessment and formulation of related laws and regulations. In this field, experts from home and abroad have done lots of researches and exploration. This work is supported by a grant from the National Basic Research Program of China (Project No. 2007CB714107). This research is applied to Flood disaster loss evaluation on Jingjiang flood diversion district and demonstrate theoretical as well as practical values.
Firstly, this paper did researches on spatial distribution method to solve the problem that Social-economic data is unevenly distributed in each administrative unit, which leads to inaccurate input data of the disaster loss evaluation model. Then the dynamic submerging analysis model which is based on GIS spatial analyst functions and two dimensional flood evolution results is provided. Based on this model, combined with the flood disaster loss calculation model, a flood disaster loss dynamic evaluation model has been proposed. This model has a loosely coupled design pattern based on data exchange and it is divided into three slave modules: submerging analysis module, Flood disaster Loss evaluation module and Spatial attribute data comprehensive management module. Different from static flood disaster loss evaluation nowadays, the model developed by this paper can directly display the situation of submerge and evaluate the disaster loss caused by flood in each time units. Therefore, in every moment of the flood evolution, the submerged area, water depth, flow velocity and flood disaster loss values can be saved and displayed in the format of grid, which provide useful information to decision-maker.
The system has been applied on Jingjiang Flood diversion district, Zhanghe Reservoir and the experiment area of Foshan. The demonstration system is implemented on Jingjiang Flood diversion district. This model combined with GIS analysis methods and mathematical ways offers an accurate and efficient method of flood disaster loss evaluation.
本文首先针对洪灾区域内社会经济指标空间分布不均匀的情况,研究了社会经济数据空间展布的理论与方法;然后针对洪水分布特性的强不规则性问题,提出了一种基于GIS空间数据分析与二维洪水演进模型计算相结合的洪水淹没特性动态评价模型;最后,在研究了基于淹没特性分析的洪灾损失计算方法后,采用基于数据交换的松散耦合设计方式,设计并实现了洪灾损失动态评估模型。该模型主要分为三大模块:动态淹没分析模块、损失计算模块和空间属性数据综合管理模块。动态淹没分析模块基于GIS空间分析功能设计实现,而损失计算模块采用软件编程实现,这两个模块之间的交互通过数据库存取操作进行,空间属性数据综合管理模块主要实现空间属性数据的动态展示和维护。与现有的静态洪灾损失评估模型不同,本文提出的动态评估模型可以实现每个时段淹没程度的直观展示和实时灾害损失评估,即洪水演进历程时间与淹没范围、水深、灾害损失状况都以栅格形式呈现和存储,易于决策者查询参考。该损失评估模型,利用了二维洪水演进计算结果,评估过程充分反应了地区的土地利用分布特点,经济分布特征以及洪水演进特性,将GIS手段与损失评估数学模型进行结合,计算结果准确,有较大的实用价值。
基于上述模型和方法开发的洪灾损失动态评估系统已应用于荆江分蓄洪区、漳河水库和佛山实验区;本文以荆江分蓄洪区为实例,验证了系统模型的有效性与实用性。
The flood disaster loss assessment plays an important role in flood control planning, flood risk management, flood insurance, flood control and disaster mitigation assessment and formulation of related laws and regulations. In this field, experts from home and abroad have done lots of researches and exploration. This work is supported by a grant from the National Basic Research Program of China (Project No. 2007CB714107). This research is applied to Flood disaster loss evaluation on Jingjiang flood diversion district and demonstrate theoretical as well as practical values.
Firstly, this paper did researches on spatial distribution method to solve the problem that Social-economic data is unevenly distributed in each administrative unit, which leads to inaccurate input data of the disaster loss evaluation model. Then the dynamic submerging analysis model which is based on GIS spatial analyst functions and two dimensional flood evolution results is provided. Based on this model, combined with the flood disaster loss calculation model, a flood disaster loss dynamic evaluation model has been proposed. This model has a loosely coupled design pattern based on data exchange and it is divided into three slave modules: submerging analysis module, Flood disaster Loss evaluation module and Spatial attribute data comprehensive management module. Different from static flood disaster loss evaluation nowadays, the model developed by this paper can directly display the situation of submerge and evaluate the disaster loss caused by flood in each time units. Therefore, in every moment of the flood evolution, the submerged area, water depth, flow velocity and flood disaster loss values can be saved and displayed in the format of grid, which provide useful information to decision-maker.
The system has been applied on Jingjiang Flood diversion district, Zhanghe Reservoir and the experiment area of Foshan. The demonstration system is implemented on Jingjiang Flood diversion district. This model combined with GIS analysis methods and mathematical ways offers an accurate and efficient method of flood disaster loss evaluation.
引文
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[2]葛全胜,邹铭,郑景云,等.中国自然灾害风险综合评估初步研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[3]高庆华,马宗晋,张业成,等.自然灾害评估[M] .北京:气象出版社,2007.
[4]魏一鸣,金菊良,杨存建,等.洪水灾害风险管理理论[M].北京:科学出版社,2002.
[5] Xiaoling Yang,Jianzhong Zhou,Jiehua Ding,et al. Study on evaluation methods of flood disaster grade attribute recognition analysis and BP neural network[C]. FSKD,2009,4:386-390.
[6] Yaoyao He,Jianzhong Zhou,Hui Qin,et al.Flood disaster classification based on fuzzy clustering iterative model and modified differential evolution algorithm[C].FSKD,2009,3:85-89.
[7] Deng Weiping,Zhou Jianzhong,Yang Xiaoling,et al.A real-time evaluation method based on cloud model for flood disaster[C].ESIAT,2009,3:136-139.
[8]卢有麟,周建中,宋利祥,等.基于CCPSO及PP模型的洪灾评估方法及其仿真应用[J].系统仿真学报,2010,22(2):383-387.
[9]付湘,王丽萍,边玮.洪水风险管理与保险[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[10]裴宏志,曹淑敏,王惠敏.城市洪水风险管理与灾害补偿研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[11]周成虎.洪水灾害评估信息系统研究[M].北京:中国科学技术出版社,1993.
[12]谢龙大,王宁,卢可源,等.水旱灾害灾情评估方法的研究[J].浙江水利科技,2001,(6):1-4.
[13]郑云鹤.分洪区洪灾经济损失估算[J].水利经济,1989,(1):27-32.
[14]张成才,许志辉,孟令奎,等.水利地理信息系统[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2005.
[15]陈丙咸,杨戊.基于GIS的流域洪涝数字模拟和灾情损失评估的研究[J].1996,11(4):309-314.
[16] De Jonge T,M Kok,M Hogeweg.Modelling floods and damage assessment using GIS[J].IAHS,1996:299-306.
[17] Werner MGF.Impact of grid size in GIS based flood extent mapping using a 1D flow model[J].Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,Part B:Hydrology,Oceans and Atmosphere,2001,26(7-8):517-522.
[18] Profeti G,Macintosh H.Flood management through Landsat TM and ERS SAR data:a case study[J].Hydrological Processes,1997,11(10):1397-1408.
[19] Dushmanta Dutta,Srikantha Herath,Katumi Musiake.A mathematical model for flood loss estimation[J].Journal of Hydrology,2003,277(1-2):24-49.
[20]汤国安,赵牡丹.地理信息系统[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[21]程晓陶,吴玉成,王艳艳,等.洪水管理新理念与防洪安全保障体系的研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2004.
[22]刘亚岚,徐枫,王世新,等.遥感与GIS支持下的基于网络的洪涝灾害监测评估系统关键技术研究[J].遥感学报,2001,5(1):53-57.
[23] Appelbaum S J.Determination of urban flood damages[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,1985,111(3):269-283.
[24] Xueqin ZHU,Shibing PAN,JianIi ZHANG,Review of the integration of watershed hydrological model and geographic information system[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2003,l9(3):1-13.
[25]陈秀万.洪水灾害损失评估系统—遥感与GIS技术应用研究[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,1999.
[26] Van Dantzig D.Economic decision problems for flood prevention[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1956,24(3):276-287.
[27]刘湘南,黄方,王平.GIS空间分析原理与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2008.
[28]王远飞,何洪林.空间数据分析方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2007.
[29]何必,李海涛,孙更新.地理信息系统原理教程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2010.
[30]张宏,温永宁,刘爱利,等.地理信息系统算法基础[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[31]胡鹏,游涟,胡海.地图代数概论[M].北京:测绘出版社,2008.
[32]田永中,陈述彭,岳天祥,等.基于土地利用的中国人口密度模拟[J].地理学报,2004,59(2):283-292.
[33]杨存建,魏一鸣.基于遥感的洪水灾害承灾体神经网络的提取方法探讨[J].灾害学,1998,13(4):1-6.
[34]王劲峰,谬一兰,刘鑫.空间数据分析教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2010.
[35]刘小生,黄玉生.基于Arc/Info的洪水淹没面积的计算方法[J].测绘通报,2003,6:46-48.
[36] Dobson J E,Bright E A,Coleman P R,et al.LandScan:a global population database for estimating populations at risk[J].Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing,2000,66(7):849-857.
[37]武靖源,韩文秀,徐杨,等.洪灾经济损失评估模型研究(I)-直接经济损失评估[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,18(11):53-56.
[38]孙绍驰.遥感技术在洪涝灾害防治体系建设中的应用[J].地理科学进展,2002,21 (3):282-287.
[39] Song L,Zhou J,Li Q,et al.An unstructured finite volume model for dam-break floods with wet/dry fronts over complex topography[J].International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids,2010,doi:10.1002/fld.2397.
[40] Lixiang Song,Jianzhong Zhou,Qiang Zou,et al.Two-dimensional dam-break flood simulation on unstructured meshes[C].2010 International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Computing Applications and Technologies,2010:465-469.
[41]宋利祥,周建中,邹强,等.一维浅水方程的强和谐Riemann求解器[J].水动力学研究与进展A辑,2010,25(2):231-238.
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