利用外商直接投资与中国外资政策调整
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摘要
2006年底,中国改革开放已历时28年。28年来,中国利用外商直接投资不断取得突破,外商直接投资从无到有,从小到大,已经在中国形成全方位、多层次、宽领域的格局,对中国经济发展产生了深远而重大的影响。总的来说,中国利用外商直接投资的经济效应主要表现在其对经济增长、技术进步、对外贸易和就业这几个方面的影响上。然而,外商直接投资在中国经济生活中所占分量超过一定限度,本身就意味着一种风险。因此,我们有必要对外商直接投资的经济效应进行系统分析,深入研究外商直接投资可能对我国经济造成的影响。在充分利用外商直接投资的正面效应时,也要认识到外商直接投资的负面效应,并采取措施弱化这种负面效应,从而更加有效地利用外商直接投资。
以往的研究主要是运用时间序列方法来研究此问题,但是由于我国外商直接投资分布的不均衡性,这种方法无法准确的衡量外商直接投资效应,因此本文运用动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel data model)进行分析,以便得到更为准确的结果。但是运用动态面板数据模型最大的困难体现在估计的技术,在动态面板数据模型中,由于因变量的滞后项作为解释变量,从而导致解释变量与随机扰动项相关,且模型具有横截面相依性,因此如果应用标准的随机效应或者固定效应对动态面板数据模型进行估计,必将导致估计量非一致性,因而基于估计结果所产生的经济含义也必定是扭曲的。因此,本文在做实证分析时运用Arellano和Bond(1991),Arellano和Bond(1995),Blundell和Bond(1998)提出的广义矩估计方法(GMM)。GMM估计方法利用工具变量(Ⅳ)来解决在应用标准的随机效应或者固定效应对动态面板数据模型进行估计时所产生的非一致性问题,因此,寻找合格的工具变量成为了估计的关键。
在实证分析部分,本文运用动态面板数据模型和误差修正模型进行分析,得出以下结论:外商直接投资对我国经济增长的效应并不是像以往文献中所说的那么大,它具有明显的时间滞后效应和地区差异;外商直接投资对于技术进步的促进作用并不明显,也意味着我国的“市场换技术”战略并不是很成功;外商直接投资有助于我国工业制成品的出口,改善我国出口贸易结构,从而提高出口竞争力;外商直接投资对我国就业的创造效应并不明显,随着时间推移甚至产生替代效应,不管是创造效应还是替代效应都具有地区差异性。通过上面的实证分析,本文最后得出相应的政策建议。
Till 2006,it has been 28years since China first carried out reforms.For the last 28years,we have many break-through in FDI utilization.As for FDI,we start from small scale to big one,and has formed a pattern of all-orientation、multi-arragement、wide-field. Nowadays,FDI has brought important and far-reaching influence on China's economic development.On the whole,the effect of FDI on China's economy mainly are economic growth、technological improvement、foreign trade and employment.Whereas,it will be kind of risk when the ratio of FDI in China has surpassed a certain degree of limit. Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the FDI effect systematically,to study thoroughly the influence caused by FDI.We have to fully make use of the positive effect of FDI,and also have to be aware of the negative effect of FDI,and to take efficient measures to reduce negative effect so as to make use of FDI more efficiently.
The main method used in previous documents is time setries method,however,as for the imbalance distribution of FDI in China,this method can't calculate FDI effect precisely,and therefore,dynamic panel data model is utilized in this dissertation.But the biggest problem is the estimation techniques in utiliazing dynamic panel data model,in this model,lagged dependent varables are used as regressors,which will lead to correlation between regressors and error terms.If we still use standard FE or REM to estimate dynamic panel data model,we'll definitely have inconsistent estimators,and the economic meanings derived from estimation results will be distorted too.So,Generalized Mehod of Moments(GMM),which was prorosed by Arellano and Bond(1991),Arellano and Bond(1995),Blundell and Bond(1998),is utilized in the empirical analysis.GMM utilizes instrument variables to solve the inconsistency problem when FEM and REM are applied to estimate dynaimic Panel data model,therefore,the key question is to find valid instrument variables.
In the part of empirical analysis,by using dynamic panel data model and ECM,we come to following conclusions:FDI effect on economic growth is not as great as that stated in the previous documents,and the effect also has lagged time effect and regional difference;FDI effect on technological improvement is not obvious,which also means strategy of "Market for technology" is not successful;FDI is helpful to promote export of manufactured products,which will help improve the structure of export,and increase export competitiveness;FDI effect on job creation is not obvious,and the FDI effect on employment may become substitution effect as time goes by,both of the creation effect and substitution effect have regional difference.The final part of this dissertation will put forward some corresponding suggestions based on the previous empirical analysis.
以往的研究主要是运用时间序列方法来研究此问题,但是由于我国外商直接投资分布的不均衡性,这种方法无法准确的衡量外商直接投资效应,因此本文运用动态面板数据模型(Dynamic Panel data model)进行分析,以便得到更为准确的结果。但是运用动态面板数据模型最大的困难体现在估计的技术,在动态面板数据模型中,由于因变量的滞后项作为解释变量,从而导致解释变量与随机扰动项相关,且模型具有横截面相依性,因此如果应用标准的随机效应或者固定效应对动态面板数据模型进行估计,必将导致估计量非一致性,因而基于估计结果所产生的经济含义也必定是扭曲的。因此,本文在做实证分析时运用Arellano和Bond(1991),Arellano和Bond(1995),Blundell和Bond(1998)提出的广义矩估计方法(GMM)。GMM估计方法利用工具变量(Ⅳ)来解决在应用标准的随机效应或者固定效应对动态面板数据模型进行估计时所产生的非一致性问题,因此,寻找合格的工具变量成为了估计的关键。
在实证分析部分,本文运用动态面板数据模型和误差修正模型进行分析,得出以下结论:外商直接投资对我国经济增长的效应并不是像以往文献中所说的那么大,它具有明显的时间滞后效应和地区差异;外商直接投资对于技术进步的促进作用并不明显,也意味着我国的“市场换技术”战略并不是很成功;外商直接投资有助于我国工业制成品的出口,改善我国出口贸易结构,从而提高出口竞争力;外商直接投资对我国就业的创造效应并不明显,随着时间推移甚至产生替代效应,不管是创造效应还是替代效应都具有地区差异性。通过上面的实证分析,本文最后得出相应的政策建议。
Till 2006,it has been 28years since China first carried out reforms.For the last 28years,we have many break-through in FDI utilization.As for FDI,we start from small scale to big one,and has formed a pattern of all-orientation、multi-arragement、wide-field. Nowadays,FDI has brought important and far-reaching influence on China's economic development.On the whole,the effect of FDI on China's economy mainly are economic growth、technological improvement、foreign trade and employment.Whereas,it will be kind of risk when the ratio of FDI in China has surpassed a certain degree of limit. Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the FDI effect systematically,to study thoroughly the influence caused by FDI.We have to fully make use of the positive effect of FDI,and also have to be aware of the negative effect of FDI,and to take efficient measures to reduce negative effect so as to make use of FDI more efficiently.
The main method used in previous documents is time setries method,however,as for the imbalance distribution of FDI in China,this method can't calculate FDI effect precisely,and therefore,dynamic panel data model is utilized in this dissertation.But the biggest problem is the estimation techniques in utiliazing dynamic panel data model,in this model,lagged dependent varables are used as regressors,which will lead to correlation between regressors and error terms.If we still use standard FE or REM to estimate dynamic panel data model,we'll definitely have inconsistent estimators,and the economic meanings derived from estimation results will be distorted too.So,Generalized Mehod of Moments(GMM),which was prorosed by Arellano and Bond(1991),Arellano and Bond(1995),Blundell and Bond(1998),is utilized in the empirical analysis.GMM utilizes instrument variables to solve the inconsistency problem when FEM and REM are applied to estimate dynaimic Panel data model,therefore,the key question is to find valid instrument variables.
In the part of empirical analysis,by using dynamic panel data model and ECM,we come to following conclusions:FDI effect on economic growth is not as great as that stated in the previous documents,and the effect also has lagged time effect and regional difference;FDI effect on technological improvement is not obvious,which also means strategy of "Market for technology" is not successful;FDI is helpful to promote export of manufactured products,which will help improve the structure of export,and increase export competitiveness;FDI effect on job creation is not obvious,and the FDI effect on employment may become substitution effect as time goes by,both of the creation effect and substitution effect have regional difference.The final part of this dissertation will put forward some corresponding suggestions based on the previous empirical analysis.
引文
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