宏观经济因素对房地产上市公司资本结构的影响
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摘要
资本结构与公司治理、公司价值、公司战略之间存在着深刻的内在联系,因此,从20世纪50年代以来,“资本结构之谜”吸引着众多公司财务领域的专家学者。大量的研究提出了一系列的资本结构理论,形成了一个从多个角度解释资本结构理论的体系；而同时大量的关于资本结构影响因素实证分析也为这些理论提供了证据的支持,这些实证分析研究由最初只关注公司层面的因素发展到70年代对行业层面因素的分析,近几年,关于宏观经济因素影响公司资本结构又逐渐成为研究的热点。房地产行业在经过数十年的发展以后已经成为我国国民经济的支柱行业,房地产投资成为拉动我国经济增长的重要力量,选择房地产这一个行业对其资本结构进行研究容易控制行业层面的影响,同时也是具有较大现实意义的。然而,国内针对房地产行业资本结构的研究还不够深入,少量的文献也多是用横截面数据模型来检验公司层面因素对房地产行业上市公司资本结构的影响,而关于宏观经济因素对房地产公司资本结构的研究尚未出现。
本文选择房地产行业作为研究对象,分析了我国房地产企业资本结构特征和融资渠道,发现我国房地产企业负债水平较高,最主要的资金来源是银行借款,定金和预收款,融资渠道较为单一。在这些分析的基础上,本文以房地产上市公司为样本,研究宏观经济因素对房地产上市公司资本结构变动的影响。选择1996年以前在A股上市的41家房地产公司作为研究样本,使用公司特征因素公司规模、债务担保能力、盈利能力和实际税率作为控制变量,分别实证研究了宏观经济周期、新增信贷规模、市场信用违约风险、利率以及股市收益率对房地产上市公司资本结构变动的影响。结果发现：房地产上市公司的负债水平具有显著的逆周期性,宏观经济上升时,房地产上市公司负债水平下降,而宏观经济衰退时,房地产上市公司负债水平上升；信贷额度对房地产上市公司的资本结构影响不显著,通过信贷额度的控制并不能显著改变房地产企业的负债水平；市场信用违约风险与房地产上市公司杠杆水平负相关；利率对房地产上市公司有息负债率有显著负影响,然而利率的上升并不能导致房地产上市公司总资产负债率下降；
最后,再结合房地产行业的特征,提出相应的政策建议,包括：关注房地产业资本结构的逆周期性,加强对房地产业信贷风险的监控；发展公司债券市场,优化房地产企业负债结构；加强金融创新,加快房地产融资多元化步伐；加快行业整合,扩大企业规模。
Capital structure is closely related to corporate governance, growth, strategy, and frrm value. Since 1950s, "capital structure puzzles" attracted lots of economists. They promoted a series of capital structure theory, which became a huge system about how to explain capital structure from different angles. At the same time, large numbers of empirical analysis was promoted to support these theories. At first, the research only pay attention to the factors from the company level, in 1970s the factors related to classification of industry was widely researched. Nearly, macroeconomic conditions' relationship with corporate capital structure has become a hotspot. After decade's years of development, China real estate industry has become a supportive industry in Chinese economy. Therefore, choose real estate industry as our research subject brings practical significance. However, research on real estate industry corporate'capital structure is not deep enough in China.
This paper chooses real estate industry as research subject. On the base of analyzing the capital structure characteristic and financing channel of China real estate industry, the paper uses real estate listed companies as sample research the macroeconomic conditions'effect on corporate capital structure of real estate. It chooses Real GDP、Credit scale、Market default risk、Real interest rate and stock market yield as the agency variables of macroeconomic conditions, at the same time firm-specific variables such as company size、ROA、real tax rate and the tangible asset ratio were considered. At last 41 listed before 1996 real estate companies was chosen and panel data model was applied to do a positive analysis. Our empirical results show that the leverage of real estate listed companies is counter-cyclical, during the period of economic boom, real estate listed companies'leverage decline, however, during the period of economic downturn, real estate listed companies'leverage grow up. Credit scale doesn't affect the capital structure of real estate listed companies, so the control of credit scale couldn't change the leverage of Real Estate Company. Market default risk has significant minus impacts on real estate listed companies'leverage. Real interest rate doesn't change the debt-to-asset ratio, but it has minus impacts on the debt with interest to asset ratio. Finally, this article proposes several suggestions in order to promote capital structure of real estate industry, such as pay attention to the credit risks in real estate industry, develop the bonds'market in china which is helpful for optimizing the debt structure of real estate industry, provide more finance channel for real estate corporate.
本文选择房地产行业作为研究对象,分析了我国房地产企业资本结构特征和融资渠道,发现我国房地产企业负债水平较高,最主要的资金来源是银行借款,定金和预收款,融资渠道较为单一。在这些分析的基础上,本文以房地产上市公司为样本,研究宏观经济因素对房地产上市公司资本结构变动的影响。选择1996年以前在A股上市的41家房地产公司作为研究样本,使用公司特征因素公司规模、债务担保能力、盈利能力和实际税率作为控制变量,分别实证研究了宏观经济周期、新增信贷规模、市场信用违约风险、利率以及股市收益率对房地产上市公司资本结构变动的影响。结果发现：房地产上市公司的负债水平具有显著的逆周期性,宏观经济上升时,房地产上市公司负债水平下降,而宏观经济衰退时,房地产上市公司负债水平上升；信贷额度对房地产上市公司的资本结构影响不显著,通过信贷额度的控制并不能显著改变房地产企业的负债水平；市场信用违约风险与房地产上市公司杠杆水平负相关；利率对房地产上市公司有息负债率有显著负影响,然而利率的上升并不能导致房地产上市公司总资产负债率下降；
最后,再结合房地产行业的特征,提出相应的政策建议,包括：关注房地产业资本结构的逆周期性,加强对房地产业信贷风险的监控；发展公司债券市场,优化房地产企业负债结构；加强金融创新,加快房地产融资多元化步伐；加快行业整合,扩大企业规模。
Capital structure is closely related to corporate governance, growth, strategy, and frrm value. Since 1950s, "capital structure puzzles" attracted lots of economists. They promoted a series of capital structure theory, which became a huge system about how to explain capital structure from different angles. At the same time, large numbers of empirical analysis was promoted to support these theories. At first, the research only pay attention to the factors from the company level, in 1970s the factors related to classification of industry was widely researched. Nearly, macroeconomic conditions' relationship with corporate capital structure has become a hotspot. After decade's years of development, China real estate industry has become a supportive industry in Chinese economy. Therefore, choose real estate industry as our research subject brings practical significance. However, research on real estate industry corporate'capital structure is not deep enough in China.
This paper chooses real estate industry as research subject. On the base of analyzing the capital structure characteristic and financing channel of China real estate industry, the paper uses real estate listed companies as sample research the macroeconomic conditions'effect on corporate capital structure of real estate. It chooses Real GDP、Credit scale、Market default risk、Real interest rate and stock market yield as the agency variables of macroeconomic conditions, at the same time firm-specific variables such as company size、ROA、real tax rate and the tangible asset ratio were considered. At last 41 listed before 1996 real estate companies was chosen and panel data model was applied to do a positive analysis. Our empirical results show that the leverage of real estate listed companies is counter-cyclical, during the period of economic boom, real estate listed companies'leverage decline, however, during the period of economic downturn, real estate listed companies'leverage grow up. Credit scale doesn't affect the capital structure of real estate listed companies, so the control of credit scale couldn't change the leverage of Real Estate Company. Market default risk has significant minus impacts on real estate listed companies'leverage. Real interest rate doesn't change the debt-to-asset ratio, but it has minus impacts on the debt with interest to asset ratio. Finally, this article proposes several suggestions in order to promote capital structure of real estate industry, such as pay attention to the credit risks in real estate industry, develop the bonds'market in china which is helpful for optimizing the debt structure of real estate industry, provide more finance channel for real estate corporate.
引文
1沈艺峰.资本结构理论史[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999.
2综合张晓晶和孙涛(2006),张雅静和张庆君(2009),谭刚(2001)及王东(2007)所得出的一个大致周期划分,当然各个学者在周期的长短,划分上也有很多不同的意见,但是在我国房地产市场存在着周期上大家观点一致。
3转引自：广宇集团招股说明书,2007年.
4资料来源：清华大学房地产研究中心等3家研究机构发布的《2009中国房地产百强企业研究报告》。
5资料来源：中国债券信息网,www.chinabond.com.cn
6数据来源：Wind数据库。
7数据来源：Wind数据库。
8资料来源：中国人民银行,《中国房地产金融报告》,2005.
9根据Wind数据库数据整理后,其他行业上市公司的资产负债率基本情况如下：采掘业2009年平均资产负债率为40.17%,制造业2009年平均资产负债率为56.44%,电力、煤气及水生产业2009年平均资产负债率为47.35,交通运输业2009年平均资产负债率为42.54,信息技术业2009年平均资产负债率为44.94,批发零售贸易行业2009年平均资产负债率为56而房地产业2009年平均资产负债率为67.9,显著高于其他行业上市公司平均资产负债率。
10许多其他的研究使用负债账面与权益的市场价值比、负债账面价值与负债账面价值加上权益市场价值的比等其他变量衡量资本结构。
11部分研究用公司的销售收入的对数来代表公司的规模。
12部分研究用销售净利率来表示盈利能力。
13数据引自王东奇,香港上市房地产企业资本结构研究。
14数据来自新浪财经2009,3.
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2综合张晓晶和孙涛(2006),张雅静和张庆君(2009),谭刚(2001)及王东(2007)所得出的一个大致周期划分,当然各个学者在周期的长短,划分上也有很多不同的意见,但是在我国房地产市场存在着周期上大家观点一致。
3转引自：广宇集团招股说明书,2007年.
4资料来源：清华大学房地产研究中心等3家研究机构发布的《2009中国房地产百强企业研究报告》。
5资料来源：中国债券信息网,www.chinabond.com.cn
6数据来源：Wind数据库。
7数据来源：Wind数据库。
8资料来源：中国人民银行,《中国房地产金融报告》,2005.
9根据Wind数据库数据整理后,其他行业上市公司的资产负债率基本情况如下：采掘业2009年平均资产负债率为40.17%,制造业2009年平均资产负债率为56.44%,电力、煤气及水生产业2009年平均资产负债率为47.35,交通运输业2009年平均资产负债率为42.54,信息技术业2009年平均资产负债率为44.94,批发零售贸易行业2009年平均资产负债率为56而房地产业2009年平均资产负债率为67.9,显著高于其他行业上市公司平均资产负债率。
10许多其他的研究使用负债账面与权益的市场价值比、负债账面价值与负债账面价值加上权益市场价值的比等其他变量衡量资本结构。
11部分研究用公司的销售收入的对数来代表公司的规模。
12部分研究用销售净利率来表示盈利能力。
13数据引自王东奇,香港上市房地产企业资本结构研究。
14数据来自新浪财经2009,3.
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