地铁盾构法施工风险管理与应用研究
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摘要
地铁盾构法施工具有施工周期长、施工项目多、技术复杂、不可预见风险因素多等特点,近几年相继发生的地铁工程事故更是引起了人们对地铁施工安全风险的高度重视,因此有必要对地铁盾构法施工开展风险管理的研究。
运用风险管理的基本理论与地铁盾构法施工实践相结合的方法,对风险辨识、风险评估以及风险控制等方面的内容进行了研究,主要的研究成果包括如下几个方面:
(1)综合了核查表法、维恩图法、工作分解结构法(WBS)和风险分解结构法(RBS)等风险辨识方法,形成了“初选——二次筛选——再分解”的风险辨识模式,最终建立了风险指标体系。
(2)由于传统的层次分析法存在标度过于简单、一致性检验复杂等问题,引入了三角模糊数理论,并与层次分析法相结合,建立了改进后的层次分析模型。
(3)在进行风险估计时,除了考虑风险发生概率和风险损失水平,还引入了风险不可控制性变量,更加科学地体现了风险管理的思想。根据这三个变量对风险量进行估算,按照风险量的估值区间范围,建立了相应的风险分级标准。
(4)将模糊综合评判法和改进的层次分析法结合(F—AHP),建立了适用于地铁盾构法施工风险评估的分析模型,增强了风险分析的适用性和准确性。
(5)根据已建立的风险评估模型对实际工程进行了分析,并提出了相应的风险控制措施来降低施工风险。
通过对地铁盾构法施工风险管理的研究,能够较好地预测和解决施工中可能遇到的问题,对保证施工安全具有一定的指导意义。
Construction of metro shield is of some characteristics, such as long-term construction, numerous subprojects, complexity of construction technology, and unpredictability of risk factors, etc. In recent years, there appeared sequent metro engineering accidents, which draws a great deal of attention of people into the construction safety risk of metro engineering. Thereby, it is necessary to carry out the research in risk management on the construction of metro shield.
With the combination of the risk management theory and the experience got from the metro projects, the paper detailed content from risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.The main contents of the paper summarized as follows:
1) Based on the Check List Method, Venn diagram, Work Breakdown Structure(WBS), and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS), risk index system of metro shield project is established by using the Pattern of primary selection—reseletion—brekdown.
2) Because of the shortage in Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), improved the model of AHP by taking account of Triangular Fuzzy Number theory and the traditional AHP.
3) The calculation of risk quantity should be considered from Probability, Consequences and Uncontrollability, it embodies the idea of risk management. Based on the three variables, we can ascertain interval range of the risk quantity, accordingly get the standards of risk level.
4) The paper integrates the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation with improved analytic hierarchy progress, so that it suits the metro shield constructiong risk analysis better and can swell the applicability and accuracy of the project risk analysis.
5) Take a actual project as an example, make risk analysis using textual risk model, and put forward correspondingmeasures to reduce the risk of it.
Research on the risk management of metro shield construction, which can can predicted and solved constructive problems, has certain guiding significance for safety in construction.
运用风险管理的基本理论与地铁盾构法施工实践相结合的方法,对风险辨识、风险评估以及风险控制等方面的内容进行了研究,主要的研究成果包括如下几个方面:
(1)综合了核查表法、维恩图法、工作分解结构法(WBS)和风险分解结构法(RBS)等风险辨识方法,形成了“初选——二次筛选——再分解”的风险辨识模式,最终建立了风险指标体系。
(2)由于传统的层次分析法存在标度过于简单、一致性检验复杂等问题,引入了三角模糊数理论,并与层次分析法相结合,建立了改进后的层次分析模型。
(3)在进行风险估计时,除了考虑风险发生概率和风险损失水平,还引入了风险不可控制性变量,更加科学地体现了风险管理的思想。根据这三个变量对风险量进行估算,按照风险量的估值区间范围,建立了相应的风险分级标准。
(4)将模糊综合评判法和改进的层次分析法结合(F—AHP),建立了适用于地铁盾构法施工风险评估的分析模型,增强了风险分析的适用性和准确性。
(5)根据已建立的风险评估模型对实际工程进行了分析,并提出了相应的风险控制措施来降低施工风险。
通过对地铁盾构法施工风险管理的研究,能够较好地预测和解决施工中可能遇到的问题,对保证施工安全具有一定的指导意义。
Construction of metro shield is of some characteristics, such as long-term construction, numerous subprojects, complexity of construction technology, and unpredictability of risk factors, etc. In recent years, there appeared sequent metro engineering accidents, which draws a great deal of attention of people into the construction safety risk of metro engineering. Thereby, it is necessary to carry out the research in risk management on the construction of metro shield.
With the combination of the risk management theory and the experience got from the metro projects, the paper detailed content from risk identification, risk assessment and risk control.The main contents of the paper summarized as follows:
1) Based on the Check List Method, Venn diagram, Work Breakdown Structure(WBS), and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS), risk index system of metro shield project is established by using the Pattern of primary selection—reseletion—brekdown.
2) Because of the shortage in Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), improved the model of AHP by taking account of Triangular Fuzzy Number theory and the traditional AHP.
3) The calculation of risk quantity should be considered from Probability, Consequences and Uncontrollability, it embodies the idea of risk management. Based on the three variables, we can ascertain interval range of the risk quantity, accordingly get the standards of risk level.
4) The paper integrates the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation with improved analytic hierarchy progress, so that it suits the metro shield constructiong risk analysis better and can swell the applicability and accuracy of the project risk analysis.
5) Take a actual project as an example, make risk analysis using textual risk model, and put forward correspondingmeasures to reduce the risk of it.
Research on the risk management of metro shield construction, which can can predicted and solved constructive problems, has certain guiding significance for safety in construction.
引文
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[9]DUDDECK H.Challenges to tunnelling engineers[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(1):5-10
[10]GDMS(Geodata master system):an information system for managing geoengineering projects[J].(2006-12-10).http://www.geodata.it.
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[15]Einstein.H.H.,Viek.5.G..Geological model for tunnel cost model[J].Proe RaPid Excavation and Tunneling Conf,2nd,1974:1701-1720
[16]Einstein.H.H..Risk and Risk Analysis in Rock Engineering[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):141-155
[17]Sinfield.J.,Einstein.H.H..Evaluation of Tunneling Technology Using the"Decision Aids for Tunneling"[J].Tunneling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(4):491-504
[18]Reilly.J.J.Management process for complex underground and tun-neling projects[J].Tunneling & Underground Space Technology,2000,(17):31-44
[19]Tonon.F,Mammino.A,Bernardini.A..Multiobjectiveoptimization under uncertainty in tunneling:application to the design of tunnel support/reinforcement with case histories[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2002(17):33-54
[20]Yoo,C.,Kim,J.H..Aweb-based tunneling-induced building/utility damages assessment system:TURISK[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2003(18):497-511
[21]Sturk,R.,Olsson,L.and Johansson,J..Risk and decision analysis for large underground projects,as applied to the Stockholm ring road tuning[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,1996,11(2):157-164
[22]Vik,E.A.,Sverdrup,L.,Kelley,A.,etc.Experiences from environmental risk management of chemical grouting agents used during construction of the Romeriksporten tunnel[J].Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology,2000,15(4):369-378
[23]白峰青,卢兰萍,姜兴阁.地下工程的可靠性与风险决策[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报,2000,6(3):237-239
[24]范益群,钟万勰,刘建航.时空效应理论与软土基坑工程现代设计概念[J].清华大学学报,2000,40(S1):49-53
[25]孙钧.城市地下工程施工安全的智能控制预测与控制及其三维仿真模拟系统研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1999,18(增):753-762
[26]黄宏伟.隧道及地下工程建设中的风险管理研究进展[J].地下空间工程学报,2006,2(1):13-20
[27]陈桂香,黄宏伟,尤建新.对地铁项目全寿命周期风险管理的研究[J].地下空 间与工程学报,2006,2(1):47-51
[28]黄宏伟,曾明,陈亮,等.基于风险数据库的盾构隧道施工风险管理软件(TRM1.0)开发[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):36-41
[29]陈龙,黄宏伟.上中路隧道工程风险管理的实践[J].地下空间与工程学报,2006,2(1):65-69,73
[30]同济大学.崇明越江通道工程风险分析研究总报告[R].上海:同济大学,2003
[31]中华人民共和国建设部.地铁及地下工程建设风险管理指南[M].2007
[32]王梦恕,张成平.城市地下工程建设的事故分析及控制对策[J].建筑科学与工程学报,2008,25(2):1-6
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