金融中心成熟度评价模型构建
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摘要
上海金融中心的建设离不开一套完善的成熟度评价体系。对金融中心成熟度的客观评价不仅有利于上海进行科学合理的金融定位,更有利于上海克服自身的薄弱环节,更好地制定发展策略。西方的金融中心成熟度评价体系注重量化指标,这些量化指标基本是定位于国际金融中心这个层次,在应用到国内金融中心的建设时往往需要重大的调整,同时西方评价体系衡量金融中心成熟度指标偏多,重点不突出,缺乏对关键性指标及各指标内部之间关系的研究。
本文创新地从金融环境、金融规模、金融聚集度、金融服务和金融人才五个准则层来衡量城市金融中心成熟度,并采取14个指标加以细化这5个准则层。
本文主要运用定性与定量相结合法,横向与纵向相结合法来阐述本文的研究对象。在定性方面,本文在金融中心理论的基础上,寻找评价金融中心成熟度的指标。在定量分析之前,确定金融中心成熟度评估指标的大体方向,为定量分析做好理论准备。在定量方面,建立金融中心成熟度评估指标往往需要大量的数据,而这些数据由于繁多容易混淆人们的判断,不容易找到明确的概念,因此,本文运用主成份分析法对变量进行简化,找出评估金融中心成熟度的主要因素,同时检验先前定性部分的正确性。
本文利用横向比较法,通过搜集2007年各城市的经济金融数据指标,对这些城市金融中心的发展情况进行了综合排名。纵向上,通过搜集上海5年来的经济历史数据(2003年至2007年),对上海金融中心建设的有利条件和约束条件进行了全面分析。
本文根据金融中心成熟度评价体系的结果对上海建设金融中心城市提出了发展经济总量,发展金融规模,培养金融人才和改善政策环境等建议。
Shanghai’s aim at becoming an international financial center needs a comprehensive evaluation system. Evaluating the development of financial centers objectively is beneficial for Shanghai to place itself on a reasonable and rational financial position. It also helps Shanghai to overcome its weakness and make strategies for developing financial centers. The foreign systems of evaluating development of financial centers mostly focus on quantitative indicators. These quantitative indicators are based on the level of international financial centers. When these are applied in Chinese cities, they need a lot of adjustments. Meanwhile, there are too many quantitative indicators in the foreign system of evaluating development of financial centers, which fails to focus on prominent and fails to find correlation among the quantitative indicators.
This thesis divides the systems of evaluating development of financial centers into five parts. It includes financial environment, financial scale, financial conglomeration, financial services and financial talents. There are 14 financial quantitative indicators to illustrate these five parts.
This thesis both uses method of qualitative analysis and method of quantitative analysis to analyze the research. Meanwhile, it also uses a method of a combination of horizontal and vertical analysis to illustrate the topic. In qualitative analysis, based on the theories of financial centers, this thesis finds indicators to construct the systems of evaluating development of financial centers. It prepares for the quantitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, this thesis uses principal component analysis to reduce the number of indicators. It helps to find main factors which determine the systems of evaluating development of financial centers. It can be used to test the correctness of the previous qualitative analysis as well.
In horizontal analysis, this thesis collects the financial statistics in 2007 to make a comprehensive ranking on development of financial centers among eight cities. In vertical analysis, through analyzing shanghai’s five-year financial statistics, this thesis points out several advantages and constrains on developing the financial centers for Shanghai.
Based on the above research results, this thesis finally offers some suggestions on the development of financial centers for Shanghai, such as enhancing the development of GDP and financial scale, nurturing the financial talents and improving the financial environment.
本文创新地从金融环境、金融规模、金融聚集度、金融服务和金融人才五个准则层来衡量城市金融中心成熟度,并采取14个指标加以细化这5个准则层。
本文主要运用定性与定量相结合法,横向与纵向相结合法来阐述本文的研究对象。在定性方面,本文在金融中心理论的基础上,寻找评价金融中心成熟度的指标。在定量分析之前,确定金融中心成熟度评估指标的大体方向,为定量分析做好理论准备。在定量方面,建立金融中心成熟度评估指标往往需要大量的数据,而这些数据由于繁多容易混淆人们的判断,不容易找到明确的概念,因此,本文运用主成份分析法对变量进行简化,找出评估金融中心成熟度的主要因素,同时检验先前定性部分的正确性。
本文利用横向比较法,通过搜集2007年各城市的经济金融数据指标,对这些城市金融中心的发展情况进行了综合排名。纵向上,通过搜集上海5年来的经济历史数据(2003年至2007年),对上海金融中心建设的有利条件和约束条件进行了全面分析。
本文根据金融中心成熟度评价体系的结果对上海建设金融中心城市提出了发展经济总量,发展金融规模,培养金融人才和改善政策环境等建议。
Shanghai’s aim at becoming an international financial center needs a comprehensive evaluation system. Evaluating the development of financial centers objectively is beneficial for Shanghai to place itself on a reasonable and rational financial position. It also helps Shanghai to overcome its weakness and make strategies for developing financial centers. The foreign systems of evaluating development of financial centers mostly focus on quantitative indicators. These quantitative indicators are based on the level of international financial centers. When these are applied in Chinese cities, they need a lot of adjustments. Meanwhile, there are too many quantitative indicators in the foreign system of evaluating development of financial centers, which fails to focus on prominent and fails to find correlation among the quantitative indicators.
This thesis divides the systems of evaluating development of financial centers into five parts. It includes financial environment, financial scale, financial conglomeration, financial services and financial talents. There are 14 financial quantitative indicators to illustrate these five parts.
This thesis both uses method of qualitative analysis and method of quantitative analysis to analyze the research. Meanwhile, it also uses a method of a combination of horizontal and vertical analysis to illustrate the topic. In qualitative analysis, based on the theories of financial centers, this thesis finds indicators to construct the systems of evaluating development of financial centers. It prepares for the quantitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, this thesis uses principal component analysis to reduce the number of indicators. It helps to find main factors which determine the systems of evaluating development of financial centers. It can be used to test the correctness of the previous qualitative analysis as well.
In horizontal analysis, this thesis collects the financial statistics in 2007 to make a comprehensive ranking on development of financial centers among eight cities. In vertical analysis, through analyzing shanghai’s five-year financial statistics, this thesis points out several advantages and constrains on developing the financial centers for Shanghai.
Based on the above research results, this thesis finally offers some suggestions on the development of financial centers for Shanghai, such as enhancing the development of GDP and financial scale, nurturing the financial talents and improving the financial environment.
引文
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[5]温斯托.劳拉詹南.金融地理学[M].孟晓晨译.北京:商务印书馆. 2001: 35-38.
[6] Porteous. D. J. The Geography of Finance: Spatial Dimensions of Intermediary Behavior[J]. Avbury. England. 1995.
[7]张志刚,黄解余.金融中心形成的自然集聚过程与政府推动.运城学院学报. 2008(2): 70-73.
[8]潘英丽.论金融中心形成的微观基础——金融机构的空间聚集[J].上海财经大学学报. 2003(2).
[9] Gras. An introduction to Economic History [M]. New York: Harper and Brothers. 1922.
[10] Reed,H.C. The Preeminence of International Finance Centers [M]. New York Paper Publishers. 1981.
[11] Choi S.R, Tschoegl A.E and Yu CM. Banks and the World’s Major Financial Centers [J]. Weltwirtschaftiliches Archly. 1986(122): 48-64.
[12] Young, Kitty, Mun, Kin-chok. Financial Centers in Asia: Implications for Bank Marketing in Hong Kong. The International Journal of Bank Marketing. 1990(8): 10.
[13] Abraham, Jean Paul, Bervacs, Nadia and Guinotte Anne. The Competitiveness of International Financial Centers in Jack Revell[M]. The Changing Face of European Banks and Securities Markets. London: St. Martin’s Press. 1994.
[14] Liu, Yi. An Empirical Ranking of International Financial Centers in the Asia Pacific Region [J]. The International Executive. 1997(39): 651-675.
[15]饶余庆.香港国际金融中心[M].北京:商务印书馆. 1997.
[16] Kaufman G G. Emerging economics and international financial centers [J]. Review of Pacific-Basin Markets and Policies. 2001(4): 365-377.
[17] Z/Yen Limited. The Competitive Position of London as a Global Financial Center. Corporation of London. 2005: 1-70.
[18] Z/Yen Limited. The Global Financial Centers Index 3. Corporation of London, 2008: 4
[19]陆红军.首届国际金融中心研讨会论文集[C].上海:百家出版社. 1996.
[20]胡坚.建立国际金融中心评估指标体系的初步设想[A].上海:百家出版社. 1996.
[21]李虹,陈文仪.建立国际金融中心的条件和指标体系[J].经济纵横. 2002(2): 35-38.
[22]胡坚,杨素兰.国际金融中心评估指标体系的构建——兼及上海成为国际金融中心的可能性分析.北京大学学报.2003, 40(5): 40-47.
[23]杨再斌,匡霞.上海国际金融中心建设条件的量化研究[J].华东理工大学学报. 2004(1): 27-32.
[24]王仁祥,石丹.区域金融中心指标体系的构建与模糊综合评判[J].统计与决策. 2005(9): 14-16.
[25]张泽慧,国际金融中心指标评估方法及指标评价体系.社会科学研究. 2005(1): 45-48
[26]陆红军.国际金融中心竞争力评估研究.财经研究. 2007. 33(3): 47-56.
[27]陆红军.发展我国国际金融中心的战略思考.上海金融. 2008(1): 27-30.
[28]陆红军.金融危机与金融中心——第二届国际金融中心研讨会论文集.上海三联书店. 1999(4).
[29]陆红军.新世纪,新格局,新思路,新能力——第三届国际金融中心研讨会文集.学林出版社. 2004(5).
[30]黄运成,杨再斌.关于上海建设国际金融中心的基本设想.管理世界. 2003(11): 103-110.
[31] Zhang Shengman, The worldwide mapping of various financial strength in the indefinite period. Researches on international financial centers. 2003(9).
[32] Poon J P H. Hierarchical tendencies of capital markets among international financial center [J]. Growth and Change. 2003(34): 135-136.
[33] Yi Chengliu, Roger Strange. An Empirical Ranking of International Financial Centers in the Asia-Pacific Region. The International Execultive. 1997(39): 651.
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