我国货币流通速度研究
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摘要
货币流通速度,是货币经济学中重要且复杂的议题。根据收入型的费雪方程,货币流通速度决定货币流量,从而决定收入。在名义收入一定的情况下,货币流通速度决定着货币供应量的多少,货币政策的制定要考虑货币流通速度变化的影响。而且,货币流通速度本身的变化,一方面是宏观经济、金融环境变化的结果,另一方面也反映出经济、金融中的诸多问题。因此,系统、深入研究我国货币流通速度问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。
首先,本文对国内外货币流通速度理论与实证研究状况进行述评,得出了几点启示,指出了我国货币流通速度研究发展的缺陷与问题,为后面各章奠定了理论基础。
其次,本文对我国货币流通速度的长期趋势和短期波动现象进行描述与论证。就长期趋势而言,1978-2005年,我国狭义、广义货币流速均显著地随时间呈下降趋势,且后者比前者衰减得快。首次运用结构突变理论对我国货币流通速度进行计量检验,结果表明,狭义、广义货币流速的数据生成过程没有出现结构突变。因此,货币流速保持了持续下降的稳定态势。运用经济周期的相关概念,系统研究了国内经济学界忽视的货币流速的短期波动问题,得出了货币流通速度周期波动的若干长度和幅度特征以及顺经济周期、顺通货膨胀周期的特征,并验证了货币流通速度短期波动的影响因素。
然后,在揭示了货币流通速度变化特征的基础上,本文依次在制度框架、货币需求框架、动态一般均衡框架下对我国货币流通速度变化的影响因素进行解释和计量检验。这是全文的核心内容。就影响货币流通速度的制度因素而言,价格指数偏低及被迫储蓄、价格管制、货币流通“暗河”等假说均不能有效解释我国货币流速长期下降的现象。广义货币化、储蓄存款持续高增长且沉淀在银行体系内、1994年以来外汇储备持续快速增长、经济及金融效率低下是对我国货币流速长期下降起重要作用的制度因素。在解释了影响货币流速的制度因素(主要是定性分析)的基础上,本文进一步对货币流速的影响因素进行量化分析。在货币需求框架下构建了我国货币流速函数模型,这有助于解决国内实证研究中的不规范问题。基于上述模型的计量检验结果表明,狭义、广义货币流速与实际GDP、利率、通胀率、广义货币化程度存在长期均衡关系。广义货币化是导致我国货币流速长期下降的主要因素。实际GDP对狭义、广义货币流速具有负向影响,符合货币是奢侈品的论断。但实际GDP对狭义货币流速的影响不显著,对广义货币流速的影响显著,主要体现了除
Monetary velocity is an important and complex topic in the monetary economics. According to Fisher equation of income type, monetary velocity determines money flow then income. If nominal income is constant, monetary velocity will determine money supply. The changes of monetary velocity should be considered when monetary policy is worked out. Moreover, the changes of monetary velocity itself are the results of the changes of macroeconomic and financial environments on the one hand, and also reflect many problems in the economy and finance on the other hand. Therefore, it has an important theoretical and practical significance to study China’s monetary velocity systematically and thoroughly.
Firstly, this paper gives a review of the theoretical and empirical researches on monetary velocity home and abroad, obtains several enlightenments, and points out some defects and problems on the researches on China’s monetary velocity, laying a theoretical foundation for the following chapters.
Next, this paper gives a description and demonstration of long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity. As for long-term trend, China's narrow monetary velocity and broad monetary velocity have been significantly declining over time from 1978 to 2005, and the latter declines faster than the former. Econometric test is given on China’s monetary velocity with the theory of structural change for the first time. Empirical results show that data generating process of China’s narrow and broad monetary velocity has no structural change, so China’s monetary velocity has been keeping a stable trend of sustained decline. This paper applies some related concepts of economic cycle to study the issue of short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity that is ignored in the domestic economics field systematically, and obtains some length and extent characters of cyclical fluctuation as well as pro-economic-cyclical and pro-inflationary-cyclical characters on China’s monetary velocity. This paper also demonstrates the determinatives of short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity.
Then, on the basis of having made the characters of the changes of the monetary velocity clear, this paper gives explanations and econometric tests for the determinatives of China’s monetary velocity in the institutional framework, in the money demand framework and in the dynamic general equilibrium framework one by one. The above contents are the core ones of the paper.
首先,本文对国内外货币流通速度理论与实证研究状况进行述评,得出了几点启示,指出了我国货币流通速度研究发展的缺陷与问题,为后面各章奠定了理论基础。
其次,本文对我国货币流通速度的长期趋势和短期波动现象进行描述与论证。就长期趋势而言,1978-2005年,我国狭义、广义货币流速均显著地随时间呈下降趋势,且后者比前者衰减得快。首次运用结构突变理论对我国货币流通速度进行计量检验,结果表明,狭义、广义货币流速的数据生成过程没有出现结构突变。因此,货币流速保持了持续下降的稳定态势。运用经济周期的相关概念,系统研究了国内经济学界忽视的货币流速的短期波动问题,得出了货币流通速度周期波动的若干长度和幅度特征以及顺经济周期、顺通货膨胀周期的特征,并验证了货币流通速度短期波动的影响因素。
然后,在揭示了货币流通速度变化特征的基础上,本文依次在制度框架、货币需求框架、动态一般均衡框架下对我国货币流通速度变化的影响因素进行解释和计量检验。这是全文的核心内容。就影响货币流通速度的制度因素而言,价格指数偏低及被迫储蓄、价格管制、货币流通“暗河”等假说均不能有效解释我国货币流速长期下降的现象。广义货币化、储蓄存款持续高增长且沉淀在银行体系内、1994年以来外汇储备持续快速增长、经济及金融效率低下是对我国货币流速长期下降起重要作用的制度因素。在解释了影响货币流速的制度因素(主要是定性分析)的基础上,本文进一步对货币流速的影响因素进行量化分析。在货币需求框架下构建了我国货币流速函数模型,这有助于解决国内实证研究中的不规范问题。基于上述模型的计量检验结果表明,狭义、广义货币流速与实际GDP、利率、通胀率、广义货币化程度存在长期均衡关系。广义货币化是导致我国货币流速长期下降的主要因素。实际GDP对狭义、广义货币流速具有负向影响,符合货币是奢侈品的论断。但实际GDP对狭义货币流速的影响不显著,对广义货币流速的影响显著,主要体现了除
Monetary velocity is an important and complex topic in the monetary economics. According to Fisher equation of income type, monetary velocity determines money flow then income. If nominal income is constant, monetary velocity will determine money supply. The changes of monetary velocity should be considered when monetary policy is worked out. Moreover, the changes of monetary velocity itself are the results of the changes of macroeconomic and financial environments on the one hand, and also reflect many problems in the economy and finance on the other hand. Therefore, it has an important theoretical and practical significance to study China’s monetary velocity systematically and thoroughly.
Firstly, this paper gives a review of the theoretical and empirical researches on monetary velocity home and abroad, obtains several enlightenments, and points out some defects and problems on the researches on China’s monetary velocity, laying a theoretical foundation for the following chapters.
Next, this paper gives a description and demonstration of long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity. As for long-term trend, China's narrow monetary velocity and broad monetary velocity have been significantly declining over time from 1978 to 2005, and the latter declines faster than the former. Econometric test is given on China’s monetary velocity with the theory of structural change for the first time. Empirical results show that data generating process of China’s narrow and broad monetary velocity has no structural change, so China’s monetary velocity has been keeping a stable trend of sustained decline. This paper applies some related concepts of economic cycle to study the issue of short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity that is ignored in the domestic economics field systematically, and obtains some length and extent characters of cyclical fluctuation as well as pro-economic-cyclical and pro-inflationary-cyclical characters on China’s monetary velocity. This paper also demonstrates the determinatives of short-term fluctuation of China’s monetary velocity.
Then, on the basis of having made the characters of the changes of the monetary velocity clear, this paper gives explanations and econometric tests for the determinatives of China’s monetary velocity in the institutional framework, in the money demand framework and in the dynamic general equilibrium framework one by one. The above contents are the core ones of the paper.
引文
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