人力资本积累的劳动供给效应：结构视角的研究
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摘要
劳动供给始终是劳动经济学研究的核心问题之一,由于拥有庞大的人口基数和丰富的劳动力资源,我国的劳动供给长期处于过剩的状态。然而,伴随“民工荒”普遍化、农民工工资持续上涨等现象,“人口红利消失”、“刘易斯拐点到来”成为学界讨论的热点问题。尽管劳动力短缺尚未真正到来,学界普遍认为在今后的10-15年间劳动力资源总量和从业人员数量仍将保持在高位运行,但第六次人口普查显示全国劳动年龄人口增速进一步下降,尤其是统计局发布的统计公报显示2012年末全国15-59岁劳动年龄人口绝对数量下降345万人,说明我国劳动力从无限供给转向有限剩余的过程正在发生,劳动力供给问题事实上受到了学界和各级政府部门的高度重视。对此,一个基本的共识是,未来劳动供给将从主要依赖劳动力人口资源总量的增长转向主要依赖于劳动者人力资本积累所带来的劳动供给效率的提升。
人力资本在经济运行中的作用不仅仅在于其总量,更在于其结构,人力资本对劳动供给的影响也一样。然而,与基于数量影响的丰富研究成果相比较,基于结构视角展开的人力资本积累对劳动供给的影响研究至今仍较为少见。本文着眼于结构视角研究人力资本积累对劳动供给的影响,论证人力资本结构变动影响劳动供给的基本路径,模拟人力资本结构调整对劳动供给影响的方向和强度。
论文以劳动参与决策理论和内生增长理论为理论基础,综合运用计量建模、反事实模拟、数据包络分析、耦合和灰色关联分析等方法技术,从个体分布结构、内部层次结构和外部匹配结构三个维度展开研究,主要内容包括：
首先,从个体劳动参与意愿出发,分析人力资本的个体分布结构对劳动参与率水平的影响,以及由此形成的对劳动参与人数的影响。鉴于性别差异在个体劳动参与决策研究中被关注的程度,以及城乡户籍差异在我国劳动力市场中的特殊重要性,本文重点关注了性别和户籍两个个体分布结构维度。理论上,运用劳动参与决策理论,从时间约束、预算约束、偏好特征等方面比较研究了个体劳动参与意愿的性别差异和城乡户籍差异,基于这些差异,论证人力资本积累的性别结构变化、城乡户籍结构变化所产生的平均劳动参与率水平变化。实证上,利用城镇住户调查(UHS)大样本微观数据,运用分类选择模型和反事实分布假设,在“劳动参与率”和“劳动参与人数变量”上模拟考察了人力资本积累的性别结构调整和城乡户籍结构调整的劳动供给效应。
其次,从劳动供给效率出发,研究人力资本的内部层次结构变动对潜在劳动生产率水平的影响,以及进而对劳动供给的影响。综合学界关于人力资本类别和构成的各种观点,本文从同质型人力资本与异质型人力资本的相对结构来观察人力资本的内部层次结构,以及这种结构变动对劳动供给的影响。理论上,以内生增长理论为基础,论证同质型人力资本与异质型人力资本积累对于潜在劳动生产率提升的差异,论证以这一潜在生产率为媒介,同质型人力资本积累与异质型人力资本积累作用于劳动供给的不同路径以及路径差异所决定的作用效应的差异。实证中,运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型,利用国民经济核算和各专业统计提供的省级面板数据,考察了人力资本的内部层次结构变动对潜在劳动生产率的影响。
第三,从供求匹配出发,研究人力资本与物质资本等外部要素的匹配结构的变动对劳动供给有效性的影响,以及进而对有效劳动供给的影响。劳动供给本质上是蕴藏于劳动力人身的人力资本的供给,这种供给只有与物质资本等外部要素形成有效匹配,才成为生产要素意义上的有效供给。运用内生增长理论并对MRW模型进行动态拓展,本文论证了人力资本与物质资本在静态存量上和动态积累上的匹配的重要性,证明了最优匹配结构的在均衡增长路径(BGP)上的存在性和必要性,并据以提出有效劳动供给概念；运用耦合理论和灰色关联分析,本文给出了人力资本与物质资本匹配程度的测量方法；利用工业行业统计数据,就我国人力资本与物质资本的匹配程度进行了实证测算,据以估计了我国劳动供给的有效性。
基于上述研究,本文形成的主要观点是：
(1)人力资本积累的结构是劳动供给的重要影响因素,这种结构影响可以从三个维度来观察：人力资本的个体分布结构影响着劳动参与率并最终对劳动参与人数产生影响、人力资本的内部层次结构影响着潜在劳动生产率并通过要素生产率对要素投入数量的替代实现对劳动供给的影响、人力资本的外部匹配结构影响着劳动供给的有效性并最终对有效劳动供给产生影想。这三个层面的影响相互交织,共同作用劳动供给.
(2)人力资本积累的个体分布结构对劳动参与人数有显著影响,但影响程度有限。一方面由于男女劳动者之间和城乡劳动者之间在时间约束、预算约束、偏好特征等方面的差异,另一方面由于男性和女性劳动力之间、城镇和农村劳动力之间客观存在的人力资本积累水平的差异,改变人力资本结构在男女个体间积累的相对差异、改变人力资本结构在城乡个体间积累的相对差异,最终形成的全体劳动年龄人口平均劳动参与率水平是不同的。各类个体的劳动参与决策估计显示,增加人力资本积累对于女性和农村劳动力的劳动参与意愿提升有积极且显著的影响,对男性和城镇劳动力的影响虽然积极却并不显著,因此,人力资本积累向女性劳动力和农村劳动力倾斜,可以实现劳动供给总量的增加。但是,这种结构调整所能形成的劳动供给总量增加是有限的,反事实分布模拟显示,在现有的人力资本积累状态下,调整未来积累结构向女性倾斜所能形成的劳动参与最大增量仅为2.6%,调整未来积累结构向农村劳动者倾斜所能形成的劳动参与最大增量仅为2.8%。
(3)提高异质型人力资本积累的相对份额对改善和提高劳动供给的影响是重要且持续的。基于内生增长理论的分析表明同质型人力资本直接进入生产部门发挥作用,增加同质型人力资本的积累相应地增加产出但并不改变生产率水平,而异质型人力资本的积累不仅带来产出增量的增加,同时还进入知识和中间产品生产部门发挥作用,通过改造生产函数的形态、从根本上降低生产过程对劳动要素投入的依赖,实现在生产函数层面的劳动生产率对劳动要素投入的替代。应用随机效应模型展开的实证研究表明：在知识和中间产品部门,异质型人力资本对TFP的影响是积极显著的(0.0371),但同质型人力资本的影响却是负面的(-0.1312);在生产部门,异质型人力资本的劳动生产率的影响也是积极的(0.1598),而同质型人力资本的作用也仍然是负面的(-0.3093)。增加人力资本积累提高劳动生产率实现生产率对劳动供给的数量的替代,主要是通过异质型人力资本来实现的,增加人力资本积累中异质型人力资本的相对份额,不仅通过生产部门的直接路径,更通过知识和中间部门的间接路径实现生产率提升从而实现对劳动要素投入的量的替代,这种替代是重要且持续的。
(4)人力资本与物质资本等外部要素之间的良好匹配,是人力资本积累在结构维度上改善和提升劳动供给的又一重要路径。基于对MRW的动态拓展证明,在均衡增长路径(BGP)上,人力资本与物质资本之间无论在静态存量上还是动态积累上,均存在最优匹配关系,而这一匹配的程度恰恰说明了所供给劳动总量的有效性程度,也就决定了在给定劳动供给总量下有效劳动供给的数量。进一步运用耦合理论对我国工业38个行业进行灰色关联分析发现,我国人力资本和物质资本之间形成了较好的匹配关系,从地区分布看,各省人力资本和物质资本的匹配程度在0.57-0.89之间；从时间分布看,2002-2009年人力资本和物质资本的匹配程度在0.51-0.92之间,显示出我国劳动供给有效性较高,这可能是我国经济在资本存量积累不具有优势条件下实现了持续增长的原因之一。但是,鉴于我国目前人力资本积累事实上处于相对低层次状态的特征,这种高匹配本质上说明了我国生产要素之间的一种建立在低层次基础上的匹配关系,这种低层次基础上的高匹配很可能将我国的劳动生产率和经济效率“锁定”在较低的水平上。
(5)面对劳动力资源总量趋势性转变的大背景,人力资本积累是未来改善和提升劳动供给必然选择。结构视角的分析进一步表明,强调异质型人力资本积累的相对比重并谋求高层次基础上的人力资本与物质资本等外部要素的高匹配,是人力资本路径上改善和提升劳动供给的核心。
相对于同类研究,本文在以下方面取得了新的进展：
(1)本文从入力资本的外部匹配结构视角,论证提出了劳动供给有效性问题的概念,并对我国劳动供给的有效性进行了测度。相对于当前基于劳动供给总量和就业人数所展开的研究,本文的工作无疑更为准确也更为接近现实的对我国劳动供给情况进行了估计,并在理论方面为后续围绕劳动供给的研究提供了一个新的视角和方法上的探索。
(2)以潜在劳动生产率为中间变量,阐明了在要素生产率对要素投入数量替代的过程中,人力资本内部结构变动对劳动供给影响的作用路径和强度的差异,为从人力资本积累路径改善劳动供给提供了更清晰的依据。
(3)针对人力资本提升的必然趋势,以及人力资本积累与劳动供给的“倒U型”关系,本文提出调整人力资本的个体分布结构,可以一定程度上抵减更高人力资本积累所导致的劳动供给减少。这不是改善劳动供给的长期选择但可能是短期决策的有效信息。
Labor supply issue is a core issue of labor economics, the research around labor supply throughout the whole process of economic development and related in nearly every fields of economics. While in China, the labor supply issue is a really new-born phenomenon, just be observed and concerned in recent years. Over the past30-years. the demographic bonus delivered by changes of the population structure played a key role in economic growth, been taken as one of the most important engine of economic growth in China... While time changes everything, when steady strong labor demand driven by growth of economic meets the shrinking labor supply, the labor supply issue comes unexpected. Accompanied the universalization of "labor shortage" and migrant workers'wages keep rising, the discussion around "Demographic dividend disappear and "Lewis turning point coming soon" become more and more heated. Despite the labor shortages have not yet come true, generally, the scholars believe that the total labor force and the number of employees is still very rich in the next10-15years, but the sixth census shows that the national working-age population growth rate to decline further. Especially the statistical bulletin released by the Bureau of Statistics shows till the end of2012, the absolute number of the country's15-59year-old working-age population has decline over345million, which shows that the process of labor force resource shift from the unlimited supply to limited remaining is occurring. In recent years, despite the government, employer and economist gave a great effort to solve this issue, but the shortage of labor force became more severely rather than fixed. Consider the increasingly tight constrain of labor resource, academia formed a consensus that human capital accumulation should be the main way to solve the labor supply issue in future.
In this paper, we define the labor supply issue with three aspects:labor participation rate, production capacity and the effectiveness of labor supply. The labor participation rate decides the quantity of labor supply in whole, no matter employed or unemployed, so it plays the role like the pool of labor supply; the production capacity of labor decides the maximum output can be achieved in the given labor supply; the effectiveness of labor supply decides the percentage of the quantity and quality of labor supply can be used in real production process and economic growth.
Given the restriction of labor resource and the distribution of gap between labor demand and supply, seeking increase in the number of labor force participation to solve the problem of labor supply under the current situation in China is unsustainable. To solve the issue we faced now has to change minds to human capital, evoke the labor force participation rate, promote the labor productivity and improve the effectiveness of labor supply by enhanced the investment of human capital, improve the stock of human capital and lead the restructure of human capital.
From the human capital aspect, the structure of human capital accumulation affects the labor supply as its stock. Firstly, the individual distribution structure of the human capital affects the participation rate of labor through the male and female, the person with residence of urban and rural have different labor supply elasticity of human capital accumulation, so given the stock of human capital investment, adjustment the investment structure and fill the human capital accumulation gap between male and female, urban and rural residence can get the optimal growth in labor participant.
Secondly, the Internal hierarchy of human capital affect the labor productivity through the homogeneous and idiosyncratic human capital effect the labor productivity in totally different way and get different result. So given the quantity of labor supply, enhanced the investment of human capital will promote the productivity of labor; especially, the idiosyncratic human capital can extrapolation the production possibility frontier and release rely on the quantity of labor input.
Finally, the external structure of the human capital matched with physical capital affect the effectiveness of labor supply. The participation rate of labor and the productivity of labor supply are just the potential of labor supply unless the labor become employed and matched with the physical capital well. From this article's point of view, whether the labor's productivity can be exerted is depends on the degree of matching of human capital he or she accumulated and the physical capital the job offers.
In short, the participation rate set the potential of labor can be employed:the productivity of labor set the maximum output can achieve:and the effectiveness of labor supply decide how much labor supply are the "real" labor supply and promote the output and economic growth.
In this paper, we try to find the solution for the labor supply issue in China from the view of human capital structure. Thus, the key questions we have to answer are: Does the structure of human capital have impaction on labor supply? How to measure the labor supply effective of human capital structure?
In order to answer these questions clearly and systemically, we divide it into three sub-questions:(1) whether the individual distribution of human capital affects the participation rate of labor? Can we figure out the path of this affection? Can we estimate it?(2) Does the internal hierarchy of human capital affect the productivity of labor supply? How does such affect come true and how much does it affect the capacity of output?(3) What is efficiency of labor supply? How does the efficiency of labor supply affect the output and economic growth? Does the external structure of the human capital matched with physical capital have impact on the efficiency of labor supply?
For the first question, we tried to analysis and figure out the path of individual distribution affect the participation rate of labor supply. Based on the theory of labor supply decision, we analyzed the influencing factors of labor supply decision of people of different individual characteristics. We found that for people of different individual characteristics, the labor supply curve and influencing are all different because the budget constraints and time constrains them faced are different, so, the utility function and elasticity of labor supply are all different. Use the micro-individual-data from UHS data base; we did empirical research to see the difference effectiveness of human capital accumulate on labor supply decision between people of different individual characteristics. Based on Probit model, with Stata10.0, we found that given the same accumulation of human capital, females incremental on labor supply are much greater than male, also the people with residence of rural labor supply incremental are much greater than the urban.
It means given the investment of human capital, by adjust the investment structure be tilted to the female and rural, can obtain the greatest incremental of labor supply, by build a counterfactual distribution, we did an estimation about how much labor supply incremental will occur if the females'stock and distribution of human capital are growth to equal with male; and the rural' stock and distribution of human capital are growth to equal with the urban. We found by adjust the structure of individual distribution of human capital can evoke the females' participation rates growth about2.6%, and the rural'participation rates growth about2.8%.
While both the accumulation and structure of individual distribution of human capital have an effect on labor supply and will promote the labor participation rate, but the increase is not such attractive, the potentials of incremental are only2.6%and2.8%for woman and rural residences.
For the second question, we analyzed how does the internal hierarchy of human capital affects the productivity of labor supply. Based on the endogenous growth theory, we analyzed the way how homogeneous and idiosyncratic human capital affect the labor productivity, we found that, the homogeneous human capital promote the labor productivity directly, while the idiosyncratic human capital not only promote the labor productivity directly, but promote technological innovation and improve the economic efficiency at the same time, In the empirical research, we use the panel data of31provinces; use the random effects model for panel data do the regression of the internal hierarchy of human capital and the productivity of labor supply, the result of empirical research confirmed our assume:the homogeneous human capital promote the labor productivity and output directly, but do not have an significant impact on the efficiency and innovation; on the contract, the idiosyncratic human capital car, promote the output and labor productivity directly, but the affection is not very strong, but at the same time. It can promote the efficiency and innovation strongly.
For the third question, we defined the conception of "Effective Labor Supply' and propose a method to estimate the effectiveness of labor supply. Based on the endogenous growth theory and MRW model, we proved that on the Balanced Growth Path, there is an optimal ratio of human capital/physical capital on stock in comparative static and on accumulative in dynamic. With the industry data, we calculate the coordinate of human and physical capital in China, found that the coordination between human and physical capital is quite well, that is why China has achieved high-speed, stable economic growth with quite low stock of human and physical capital---the high coordination between human and physical capital ensure the capacity can be exert perfection, which will enhance the return to human and physical capital, encourage the investment of these two capital.
In summary, the structure of human capital have a great affection on labor supply, the individual distribution of human capital affect the participation rate; the internal hierarchy of human capital affect the production capacity; and the external matching structure affect the efficiency of labor supply.
Given the restriction and circumstance of labor resource in China, we suggest the best way to resolve the labor supply issue is to enhance the accumulation of idiosyncratic Human Capital and improve the coordination, evoke the innovation and promote the efficient of economic, optimize the efficiency of labor supply to reduce the dependent on the quantity of labor supply.
人力资本在经济运行中的作用不仅仅在于其总量,更在于其结构,人力资本对劳动供给的影响也一样。然而,与基于数量影响的丰富研究成果相比较,基于结构视角展开的人力资本积累对劳动供给的影响研究至今仍较为少见。本文着眼于结构视角研究人力资本积累对劳动供给的影响,论证人力资本结构变动影响劳动供给的基本路径,模拟人力资本结构调整对劳动供给影响的方向和强度。
论文以劳动参与决策理论和内生增长理论为理论基础,综合运用计量建模、反事实模拟、数据包络分析、耦合和灰色关联分析等方法技术,从个体分布结构、内部层次结构和外部匹配结构三个维度展开研究,主要内容包括：
首先,从个体劳动参与意愿出发,分析人力资本的个体分布结构对劳动参与率水平的影响,以及由此形成的对劳动参与人数的影响。鉴于性别差异在个体劳动参与决策研究中被关注的程度,以及城乡户籍差异在我国劳动力市场中的特殊重要性,本文重点关注了性别和户籍两个个体分布结构维度。理论上,运用劳动参与决策理论,从时间约束、预算约束、偏好特征等方面比较研究了个体劳动参与意愿的性别差异和城乡户籍差异,基于这些差异,论证人力资本积累的性别结构变化、城乡户籍结构变化所产生的平均劳动参与率水平变化。实证上,利用城镇住户调查(UHS)大样本微观数据,运用分类选择模型和反事实分布假设,在“劳动参与率”和“劳动参与人数变量”上模拟考察了人力资本积累的性别结构调整和城乡户籍结构调整的劳动供给效应。
其次,从劳动供给效率出发,研究人力资本的内部层次结构变动对潜在劳动生产率水平的影响,以及进而对劳动供给的影响。综合学界关于人力资本类别和构成的各种观点,本文从同质型人力资本与异质型人力资本的相对结构来观察人力资本的内部层次结构,以及这种结构变动对劳动供给的影响。理论上,以内生增长理论为基础,论证同质型人力资本与异质型人力资本积累对于潜在劳动生产率提升的差异,论证以这一潜在生产率为媒介,同质型人力资本积累与异质型人力资本积累作用于劳动供给的不同路径以及路径差异所决定的作用效应的差异。实证中,运用固定效应模型和随机效应模型,利用国民经济核算和各专业统计提供的省级面板数据,考察了人力资本的内部层次结构变动对潜在劳动生产率的影响。
第三,从供求匹配出发,研究人力资本与物质资本等外部要素的匹配结构的变动对劳动供给有效性的影响,以及进而对有效劳动供给的影响。劳动供给本质上是蕴藏于劳动力人身的人力资本的供给,这种供给只有与物质资本等外部要素形成有效匹配,才成为生产要素意义上的有效供给。运用内生增长理论并对MRW模型进行动态拓展,本文论证了人力资本与物质资本在静态存量上和动态积累上的匹配的重要性,证明了最优匹配结构的在均衡增长路径(BGP)上的存在性和必要性,并据以提出有效劳动供给概念；运用耦合理论和灰色关联分析,本文给出了人力资本与物质资本匹配程度的测量方法；利用工业行业统计数据,就我国人力资本与物质资本的匹配程度进行了实证测算,据以估计了我国劳动供给的有效性。
基于上述研究,本文形成的主要观点是：
(1)人力资本积累的结构是劳动供给的重要影响因素,这种结构影响可以从三个维度来观察：人力资本的个体分布结构影响着劳动参与率并最终对劳动参与人数产生影响、人力资本的内部层次结构影响着潜在劳动生产率并通过要素生产率对要素投入数量的替代实现对劳动供给的影响、人力资本的外部匹配结构影响着劳动供给的有效性并最终对有效劳动供给产生影想。这三个层面的影响相互交织,共同作用劳动供给.
(2)人力资本积累的个体分布结构对劳动参与人数有显著影响,但影响程度有限。一方面由于男女劳动者之间和城乡劳动者之间在时间约束、预算约束、偏好特征等方面的差异,另一方面由于男性和女性劳动力之间、城镇和农村劳动力之间客观存在的人力资本积累水平的差异,改变人力资本结构在男女个体间积累的相对差异、改变人力资本结构在城乡个体间积累的相对差异,最终形成的全体劳动年龄人口平均劳动参与率水平是不同的。各类个体的劳动参与决策估计显示,增加人力资本积累对于女性和农村劳动力的劳动参与意愿提升有积极且显著的影响,对男性和城镇劳动力的影响虽然积极却并不显著,因此,人力资本积累向女性劳动力和农村劳动力倾斜,可以实现劳动供给总量的增加。但是,这种结构调整所能形成的劳动供给总量增加是有限的,反事实分布模拟显示,在现有的人力资本积累状态下,调整未来积累结构向女性倾斜所能形成的劳动参与最大增量仅为2.6%,调整未来积累结构向农村劳动者倾斜所能形成的劳动参与最大增量仅为2.8%。
(3)提高异质型人力资本积累的相对份额对改善和提高劳动供给的影响是重要且持续的。基于内生增长理论的分析表明同质型人力资本直接进入生产部门发挥作用,增加同质型人力资本的积累相应地增加产出但并不改变生产率水平,而异质型人力资本的积累不仅带来产出增量的增加,同时还进入知识和中间产品生产部门发挥作用,通过改造生产函数的形态、从根本上降低生产过程对劳动要素投入的依赖,实现在生产函数层面的劳动生产率对劳动要素投入的替代。应用随机效应模型展开的实证研究表明：在知识和中间产品部门,异质型人力资本对TFP的影响是积极显著的(0.0371),但同质型人力资本的影响却是负面的(-0.1312);在生产部门,异质型人力资本的劳动生产率的影响也是积极的(0.1598),而同质型人力资本的作用也仍然是负面的(-0.3093)。增加人力资本积累提高劳动生产率实现生产率对劳动供给的数量的替代,主要是通过异质型人力资本来实现的,增加人力资本积累中异质型人力资本的相对份额,不仅通过生产部门的直接路径,更通过知识和中间部门的间接路径实现生产率提升从而实现对劳动要素投入的量的替代,这种替代是重要且持续的。
(4)人力资本与物质资本等外部要素之间的良好匹配,是人力资本积累在结构维度上改善和提升劳动供给的又一重要路径。基于对MRW的动态拓展证明,在均衡增长路径(BGP)上,人力资本与物质资本之间无论在静态存量上还是动态积累上,均存在最优匹配关系,而这一匹配的程度恰恰说明了所供给劳动总量的有效性程度,也就决定了在给定劳动供给总量下有效劳动供给的数量。进一步运用耦合理论对我国工业38个行业进行灰色关联分析发现,我国人力资本和物质资本之间形成了较好的匹配关系,从地区分布看,各省人力资本和物质资本的匹配程度在0.57-0.89之间；从时间分布看,2002-2009年人力资本和物质资本的匹配程度在0.51-0.92之间,显示出我国劳动供给有效性较高,这可能是我国经济在资本存量积累不具有优势条件下实现了持续增长的原因之一。但是,鉴于我国目前人力资本积累事实上处于相对低层次状态的特征,这种高匹配本质上说明了我国生产要素之间的一种建立在低层次基础上的匹配关系,这种低层次基础上的高匹配很可能将我国的劳动生产率和经济效率“锁定”在较低的水平上。
(5)面对劳动力资源总量趋势性转变的大背景,人力资本积累是未来改善和提升劳动供给必然选择。结构视角的分析进一步表明,强调异质型人力资本积累的相对比重并谋求高层次基础上的人力资本与物质资本等外部要素的高匹配,是人力资本路径上改善和提升劳动供给的核心。
相对于同类研究,本文在以下方面取得了新的进展：
(1)本文从入力资本的外部匹配结构视角,论证提出了劳动供给有效性问题的概念,并对我国劳动供给的有效性进行了测度。相对于当前基于劳动供给总量和就业人数所展开的研究,本文的工作无疑更为准确也更为接近现实的对我国劳动供给情况进行了估计,并在理论方面为后续围绕劳动供给的研究提供了一个新的视角和方法上的探索。
(2)以潜在劳动生产率为中间变量,阐明了在要素生产率对要素投入数量替代的过程中,人力资本内部结构变动对劳动供给影响的作用路径和强度的差异,为从人力资本积累路径改善劳动供给提供了更清晰的依据。
(3)针对人力资本提升的必然趋势,以及人力资本积累与劳动供给的“倒U型”关系,本文提出调整人力资本的个体分布结构,可以一定程度上抵减更高人力资本积累所导致的劳动供给减少。这不是改善劳动供给的长期选择但可能是短期决策的有效信息。
Labor supply issue is a core issue of labor economics, the research around labor supply throughout the whole process of economic development and related in nearly every fields of economics. While in China, the labor supply issue is a really new-born phenomenon, just be observed and concerned in recent years. Over the past30-years. the demographic bonus delivered by changes of the population structure played a key role in economic growth, been taken as one of the most important engine of economic growth in China... While time changes everything, when steady strong labor demand driven by growth of economic meets the shrinking labor supply, the labor supply issue comes unexpected. Accompanied the universalization of "labor shortage" and migrant workers'wages keep rising, the discussion around "Demographic dividend disappear and "Lewis turning point coming soon" become more and more heated. Despite the labor shortages have not yet come true, generally, the scholars believe that the total labor force and the number of employees is still very rich in the next10-15years, but the sixth census shows that the national working-age population growth rate to decline further. Especially the statistical bulletin released by the Bureau of Statistics shows till the end of2012, the absolute number of the country's15-59year-old working-age population has decline over345million, which shows that the process of labor force resource shift from the unlimited supply to limited remaining is occurring. In recent years, despite the government, employer and economist gave a great effort to solve this issue, but the shortage of labor force became more severely rather than fixed. Consider the increasingly tight constrain of labor resource, academia formed a consensus that human capital accumulation should be the main way to solve the labor supply issue in future.
In this paper, we define the labor supply issue with three aspects:labor participation rate, production capacity and the effectiveness of labor supply. The labor participation rate decides the quantity of labor supply in whole, no matter employed or unemployed, so it plays the role like the pool of labor supply; the production capacity of labor decides the maximum output can be achieved in the given labor supply; the effectiveness of labor supply decides the percentage of the quantity and quality of labor supply can be used in real production process and economic growth.
Given the restriction of labor resource and the distribution of gap between labor demand and supply, seeking increase in the number of labor force participation to solve the problem of labor supply under the current situation in China is unsustainable. To solve the issue we faced now has to change minds to human capital, evoke the labor force participation rate, promote the labor productivity and improve the effectiveness of labor supply by enhanced the investment of human capital, improve the stock of human capital and lead the restructure of human capital.
From the human capital aspect, the structure of human capital accumulation affects the labor supply as its stock. Firstly, the individual distribution structure of the human capital affects the participation rate of labor through the male and female, the person with residence of urban and rural have different labor supply elasticity of human capital accumulation, so given the stock of human capital investment, adjustment the investment structure and fill the human capital accumulation gap between male and female, urban and rural residence can get the optimal growth in labor participant.
Secondly, the Internal hierarchy of human capital affect the labor productivity through the homogeneous and idiosyncratic human capital effect the labor productivity in totally different way and get different result. So given the quantity of labor supply, enhanced the investment of human capital will promote the productivity of labor; especially, the idiosyncratic human capital can extrapolation the production possibility frontier and release rely on the quantity of labor input.
Finally, the external structure of the human capital matched with physical capital affect the effectiveness of labor supply. The participation rate of labor and the productivity of labor supply are just the potential of labor supply unless the labor become employed and matched with the physical capital well. From this article's point of view, whether the labor's productivity can be exerted is depends on the degree of matching of human capital he or she accumulated and the physical capital the job offers.
In short, the participation rate set the potential of labor can be employed:the productivity of labor set the maximum output can achieve:and the effectiveness of labor supply decide how much labor supply are the "real" labor supply and promote the output and economic growth.
In this paper, we try to find the solution for the labor supply issue in China from the view of human capital structure. Thus, the key questions we have to answer are: Does the structure of human capital have impaction on labor supply? How to measure the labor supply effective of human capital structure?
In order to answer these questions clearly and systemically, we divide it into three sub-questions:(1) whether the individual distribution of human capital affects the participation rate of labor? Can we figure out the path of this affection? Can we estimate it?(2) Does the internal hierarchy of human capital affect the productivity of labor supply? How does such affect come true and how much does it affect the capacity of output?(3) What is efficiency of labor supply? How does the efficiency of labor supply affect the output and economic growth? Does the external structure of the human capital matched with physical capital have impact on the efficiency of labor supply?
For the first question, we tried to analysis and figure out the path of individual distribution affect the participation rate of labor supply. Based on the theory of labor supply decision, we analyzed the influencing factors of labor supply decision of people of different individual characteristics. We found that for people of different individual characteristics, the labor supply curve and influencing are all different because the budget constraints and time constrains them faced are different, so, the utility function and elasticity of labor supply are all different. Use the micro-individual-data from UHS data base; we did empirical research to see the difference effectiveness of human capital accumulate on labor supply decision between people of different individual characteristics. Based on Probit model, with Stata10.0, we found that given the same accumulation of human capital, females incremental on labor supply are much greater than male, also the people with residence of rural labor supply incremental are much greater than the urban.
It means given the investment of human capital, by adjust the investment structure be tilted to the female and rural, can obtain the greatest incremental of labor supply, by build a counterfactual distribution, we did an estimation about how much labor supply incremental will occur if the females'stock and distribution of human capital are growth to equal with male; and the rural' stock and distribution of human capital are growth to equal with the urban. We found by adjust the structure of individual distribution of human capital can evoke the females' participation rates growth about2.6%, and the rural'participation rates growth about2.8%.
While both the accumulation and structure of individual distribution of human capital have an effect on labor supply and will promote the labor participation rate, but the increase is not such attractive, the potentials of incremental are only2.6%and2.8%for woman and rural residences.
For the second question, we analyzed how does the internal hierarchy of human capital affects the productivity of labor supply. Based on the endogenous growth theory, we analyzed the way how homogeneous and idiosyncratic human capital affect the labor productivity, we found that, the homogeneous human capital promote the labor productivity directly, while the idiosyncratic human capital not only promote the labor productivity directly, but promote technological innovation and improve the economic efficiency at the same time, In the empirical research, we use the panel data of31provinces; use the random effects model for panel data do the regression of the internal hierarchy of human capital and the productivity of labor supply, the result of empirical research confirmed our assume:the homogeneous human capital promote the labor productivity and output directly, but do not have an significant impact on the efficiency and innovation; on the contract, the idiosyncratic human capital car, promote the output and labor productivity directly, but the affection is not very strong, but at the same time. It can promote the efficiency and innovation strongly.
For the third question, we defined the conception of "Effective Labor Supply' and propose a method to estimate the effectiveness of labor supply. Based on the endogenous growth theory and MRW model, we proved that on the Balanced Growth Path, there is an optimal ratio of human capital/physical capital on stock in comparative static and on accumulative in dynamic. With the industry data, we calculate the coordinate of human and physical capital in China, found that the coordination between human and physical capital is quite well, that is why China has achieved high-speed, stable economic growth with quite low stock of human and physical capital---the high coordination between human and physical capital ensure the capacity can be exert perfection, which will enhance the return to human and physical capital, encourage the investment of these two capital.
In summary, the structure of human capital have a great affection on labor supply, the individual distribution of human capital affect the participation rate; the internal hierarchy of human capital affect the production capacity; and the external matching structure affect the efficiency of labor supply.
Given the restriction and circumstance of labor resource in China, we suggest the best way to resolve the labor supply issue is to enhance the accumulation of idiosyncratic Human Capital and improve the coordination, evoke the innovation and promote the efficient of economic, optimize the efficiency of labor supply to reduce the dependent on the quantity of labor supply.
引文
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