博弈周期理论：世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性研究
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摘要
本文以各国经济之间的相互博弈关系作为研究切入点，提出和证实关于当代世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性的一个新的理论假说，即“区域间的经济周期协同性减弱、区域内的经济周期协同性增强”的假说。并建立了一组世界经济周期的博弈模型，提供了一个基本解释框架，且命名为“博弈周期理论”，分别得到了两个包含消费、投资、政府支出与进出口的世界经济周期成因机理的核心方程。并且，沿着该方程的逻辑思路展开，作出了扩展和应用。为此，本文分成四个部分共十章，其中：
第一部分包括导论、第一章和第二章，提出理论假说。导论一章主要交代了本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究思路与研究方法，而且还给出了搏弈周期理论特定的基本理论范畴，并作为本文理论研究的最基本的逻辑分析起点。第一章初步考察了世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的经验事实，并以七国集团、欧盟以及北美自由贸易区为例，指出当代世界经济周期呈现出新的特点，即“世界性的协同性降低，区域性的协同性增强”。第二章梳理了当代世界经济周期协同性与非协同性及其相关研究的基本脉络，指出了现有文献的成果与不足，并在这三章的基础上，提出了本文的理论假说。
第二部分包括第三章和第四章，建立了两个博弈模型支撑并证明假说。为了说明国际贸易如何传导经济波动并形成世界经济周期，第三章建立了一个两国静态博弈模型来解释这个新特点的形成机理，得到了一个包含消费、投资、政府支出与进出口的世界经济周期成因机理的核心方程，并建立了理论模型和计量经济模型相互沟通的具体“桥梁”，且依据数据事实证明了该理论模型，证明了世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性的存在，讨论了世界经济及其构成的相互关系。
在“世界”经济越来越证券化的今天，国际投资和国际资本流动越来越重要，因此，第四章利用一个特殊的政府目标函数，引进国际直接投资和国际资本流动，建立一个两国静态博弈模型，并求得包含货币政策、财政政策与贸易政策的世界经济周期的运动方程，以解释金融危机与经济危机的发生机理，并解释它们如何在国家之间的相互传导，以及如何形成世界经济周期等等。同时，本章还以墨西哥为例，考察了墨西哥的货币政策、财政政策和贸易政策可能给世界经济周期带来的影响，并简短地分析了墨西哥政策变动与世界经济变动的相互作用。
第三部分包括第五章和第六章。其中第五章起了承上启下的作用，既是对第二部分理论模型的逻辑扩展，即将第二部分中的两国模型扩展至三国模型，将静态博弈模型扩展至动态博弈模型；也为第六章的测度模型做理论准备。
第五章的已拓展为三国动态博弈模型的基本框架解释了世界经济的区域化与全球化如何导致世界经济周期的区域化与全球化，并解释了当代世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的形成及其相关因素，解释了世界经济周期的运动规律。
第六章通过引入随机变量，构造了世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的测度模型，继而推导出世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的计量经济模型。并以“六国”和欧盟的世界经济周期的协同性与产出及其构成的二阶波动的协同性构造了一组平面数据，得到一组计量经济学方程，并通过计量检验，证实了本文的基本理论假说，即区域内的经济周期协同性增强了，但区域间的经济周期协同性减弱了。由此，通过前面这三部分的研究，既从理论角度又从实证角度，完成了对世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的理论假说的全部证明，并成为博弈周期理论的核心与
浙江大学博士学位论文
博弈周期理论:世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性研究
基础内容。
第四部分包括第七章和第八章，既是世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的对策
研究，也是博弈周期理论的应用研究。
第七章以两国博弈模型的简单情形为出发点，依据本文一、二、三部分的研
究结论，即，政府行为通过改变两国的经济政策、贸易政策、财政政策和货币政
策等，影响世界经济周期的运动形态及其协同性与非协同性，从而推导出在当今
世界各国面临激烈的竞争中，政府行为应当体现在国家之间的政策协调，以避免
“两败俱伤”的结局。所以，本章指出，国际协调将成为世界经济周期运动的外
在平滑机制，而内生于世界经济周期的运动规律之中。
由此，本章讨论了世界经济的“囚徒困境”—世界经济各主体之间的个体
理性与集体理性之间的矛盾，并探讨了走出“囚徒困境”的国际协调方式之一的
世界组织或者区域组织产生的必要性与可能性。同时指出，随着技术的进步、社
会的进步，各国信息的通达也越来越充分，因此，“世界政府”或“国际组织”
的协调成本也越来越低，世界各国也越来越容易达成共识。二战之后世界组织和
区域组织打破了世界经济格局的事实说明了逐步实现集体理性与个体理性相统
一的世界经济也出现了新的运动形态，而世界经济周期的运动规律也随之发生了
改变。同时，本章还指出，走出世界经济“囚徒困境”的途径之一的国际协调也
不可避免地会发生效率损失。因此，制定相应的法律以保障国际协调是非常重要
的，并且也需要对国际协调的方式进行变革。在此基础上，本章还探讨了世界制
度的?
On the basis of the game relation between each county of the world, this paper proposes and confirms a different hypothesis, which is that synchronization of World Business Cycle (WBC) has been less and less, although synchronization of Regional Business Cycle has been stronger and stronger. A series of game models of bi-Countries have been set up to understanding synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which is called Game Business Cycle Theory (GBCT). And the core of mechanism of WBC has also been presented, which derives from fluctuation of consumption, investment, payout of government, imports and exports, etc. Moreover, it further develops the new hypothesis with applications along with the development of logic of GBCT. Therefore, this paper consists of four sections including ten chapters:
Section 1, including introduction, chapter 1 and chapter 2, proposes the hypothesis. In the chapter of introduction, the background, significance, idea and means of GBCT have been given out. And the essential category of GBCT has also been given out, which is taken as a jumping-off point of this paper. Chapter 1 has discovered the fact that regionalization and globalization of WBC has a new trend, which is supported by the data of 7-Group, European Union (EU) and North America Free-trade Area (NAFTA). And chapter 2 has taken a careful review of literature of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, and the given out a hypothesis of this paper, which is based on these papers of predecessors.
Section 2, including chapter 3 and chapter 4, sets up two models to support and confirm the hypothesis. In chapter 3, a two-country game model has been set up to explain the mechanism of WBC, which transmitting-channels is international trade. At the same time, a bridge between a theoretic model and an econometric model has been set up, and the existence of non-synchronization of WBC has been proved by data.
It is more and more important that international investment and international hot money with development of securitization of world economy. So a game model has been set up with an introduction of a special utility function of government, from which may deduce a dynamic economic equation of WBC. So, the mechanism of financial crisis or economic crisis, transmission of crisis, and the cause of the WBC have been proved by this equation, which includes some variables of policy, such as monetary policy, financial policy and trading policy, etc. And then a case study of WBC has given an evidence for GBCT, in which the relation between Mexico policies and WBC has been proved, too.
Section 3, namely chapter 5 and chapter 6, confirms and develops the hypothesis. Chapter 5 is a connecting link between the preceding and the following chapter, which is both the logical extending of section 2 and the theoretical preparation of chapter 6. A dynamic game model is a framework that can explain the fact that the regionalization and globalization of WBC develops with the regionalization and globalization of world economy. So, the law of WBC has been discovered by this model, which can give an answer of formation of synchronization and
non-synchronization of WBC.
Chapter 6 constructs a measure model of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which educes an econometric model naturally. The hypothesis of this paper has been testified by the panel data, which is derived from the synchronization and non-synchronization of 6-Group and EU. Therefore, The hypothesis of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC has been proved completely, which is a core or foundation of GBCT.
Section 4, including chapter 7 and chapter 8, both is a countermeasure of WBC and application of GBCT. In chapter 7, based on the conclusion of section 1, 2 and 3, the international harmonization is a very important obligation of government to avoid the internecine trap of world economy, which the synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC can be effected by deeds of government, such as economic policy, monetary policy, financial policy and trading
第一部分包括导论、第一章和第二章，提出理论假说。导论一章主要交代了本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究思路与研究方法，而且还给出了搏弈周期理论特定的基本理论范畴，并作为本文理论研究的最基本的逻辑分析起点。第一章初步考察了世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的经验事实，并以七国集团、欧盟以及北美自由贸易区为例，指出当代世界经济周期呈现出新的特点，即“世界性的协同性降低，区域性的协同性增强”。第二章梳理了当代世界经济周期协同性与非协同性及其相关研究的基本脉络，指出了现有文献的成果与不足，并在这三章的基础上，提出了本文的理论假说。
第二部分包括第三章和第四章，建立了两个博弈模型支撑并证明假说。为了说明国际贸易如何传导经济波动并形成世界经济周期，第三章建立了一个两国静态博弈模型来解释这个新特点的形成机理，得到了一个包含消费、投资、政府支出与进出口的世界经济周期成因机理的核心方程，并建立了理论模型和计量经济模型相互沟通的具体“桥梁”，且依据数据事实证明了该理论模型，证明了世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性的存在，讨论了世界经济及其构成的相互关系。
在“世界”经济越来越证券化的今天，国际投资和国际资本流动越来越重要，因此，第四章利用一个特殊的政府目标函数，引进国际直接投资和国际资本流动，建立一个两国静态博弈模型，并求得包含货币政策、财政政策与贸易政策的世界经济周期的运动方程，以解释金融危机与经济危机的发生机理，并解释它们如何在国家之间的相互传导，以及如何形成世界经济周期等等。同时，本章还以墨西哥为例，考察了墨西哥的货币政策、财政政策和贸易政策可能给世界经济周期带来的影响，并简短地分析了墨西哥政策变动与世界经济变动的相互作用。
第三部分包括第五章和第六章。其中第五章起了承上启下的作用，既是对第二部分理论模型的逻辑扩展，即将第二部分中的两国模型扩展至三国模型，将静态博弈模型扩展至动态博弈模型；也为第六章的测度模型做理论准备。
第五章的已拓展为三国动态博弈模型的基本框架解释了世界经济的区域化与全球化如何导致世界经济周期的区域化与全球化，并解释了当代世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的形成及其相关因素，解释了世界经济周期的运动规律。
第六章通过引入随机变量，构造了世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的测度模型，继而推导出世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的计量经济模型。并以“六国”和欧盟的世界经济周期的协同性与产出及其构成的二阶波动的协同性构造了一组平面数据，得到一组计量经济学方程，并通过计量检验，证实了本文的基本理论假说，即区域内的经济周期协同性增强了，但区域间的经济周期协同性减弱了。由此，通过前面这三部分的研究，既从理论角度又从实证角度，完成了对世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的理论假说的全部证明，并成为博弈周期理论的核心与
浙江大学博士学位论文
博弈周期理论:世界经济周期的协同性与非协同性研究
基础内容。
第四部分包括第七章和第八章，既是世界经济周期协同性与非协同性的对策
研究，也是博弈周期理论的应用研究。
第七章以两国博弈模型的简单情形为出发点，依据本文一、二、三部分的研
究结论，即，政府行为通过改变两国的经济政策、贸易政策、财政政策和货币政
策等，影响世界经济周期的运动形态及其协同性与非协同性，从而推导出在当今
世界各国面临激烈的竞争中，政府行为应当体现在国家之间的政策协调，以避免
“两败俱伤”的结局。所以，本章指出，国际协调将成为世界经济周期运动的外
在平滑机制，而内生于世界经济周期的运动规律之中。
由此，本章讨论了世界经济的“囚徒困境”—世界经济各主体之间的个体
理性与集体理性之间的矛盾，并探讨了走出“囚徒困境”的国际协调方式之一的
世界组织或者区域组织产生的必要性与可能性。同时指出，随着技术的进步、社
会的进步，各国信息的通达也越来越充分，因此，“世界政府”或“国际组织”
的协调成本也越来越低，世界各国也越来越容易达成共识。二战之后世界组织和
区域组织打破了世界经济格局的事实说明了逐步实现集体理性与个体理性相统
一的世界经济也出现了新的运动形态，而世界经济周期的运动规律也随之发生了
改变。同时，本章还指出，走出世界经济“囚徒困境”的途径之一的国际协调也
不可避免地会发生效率损失。因此，制定相应的法律以保障国际协调是非常重要
的，并且也需要对国际协调的方式进行变革。在此基础上，本章还探讨了世界制
度的?
On the basis of the game relation between each county of the world, this paper proposes and confirms a different hypothesis, which is that synchronization of World Business Cycle (WBC) has been less and less, although synchronization of Regional Business Cycle has been stronger and stronger. A series of game models of bi-Countries have been set up to understanding synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which is called Game Business Cycle Theory (GBCT). And the core of mechanism of WBC has also been presented, which derives from fluctuation of consumption, investment, payout of government, imports and exports, etc. Moreover, it further develops the new hypothesis with applications along with the development of logic of GBCT. Therefore, this paper consists of four sections including ten chapters:
Section 1, including introduction, chapter 1 and chapter 2, proposes the hypothesis. In the chapter of introduction, the background, significance, idea and means of GBCT have been given out. And the essential category of GBCT has also been given out, which is taken as a jumping-off point of this paper. Chapter 1 has discovered the fact that regionalization and globalization of WBC has a new trend, which is supported by the data of 7-Group, European Union (EU) and North America Free-trade Area (NAFTA). And chapter 2 has taken a careful review of literature of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, and the given out a hypothesis of this paper, which is based on these papers of predecessors.
Section 2, including chapter 3 and chapter 4, sets up two models to support and confirm the hypothesis. In chapter 3, a two-country game model has been set up to explain the mechanism of WBC, which transmitting-channels is international trade. At the same time, a bridge between a theoretic model and an econometric model has been set up, and the existence of non-synchronization of WBC has been proved by data.
It is more and more important that international investment and international hot money with development of securitization of world economy. So a game model has been set up with an introduction of a special utility function of government, from which may deduce a dynamic economic equation of WBC. So, the mechanism of financial crisis or economic crisis, transmission of crisis, and the cause of the WBC have been proved by this equation, which includes some variables of policy, such as monetary policy, financial policy and trading policy, etc. And then a case study of WBC has given an evidence for GBCT, in which the relation between Mexico policies and WBC has been proved, too.
Section 3, namely chapter 5 and chapter 6, confirms and develops the hypothesis. Chapter 5 is a connecting link between the preceding and the following chapter, which is both the logical extending of section 2 and the theoretical preparation of chapter 6. A dynamic game model is a framework that can explain the fact that the regionalization and globalization of WBC develops with the regionalization and globalization of world economy. So, the law of WBC has been discovered by this model, which can give an answer of formation of synchronization and
non-synchronization of WBC.
Chapter 6 constructs a measure model of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which educes an econometric model naturally. The hypothesis of this paper has been testified by the panel data, which is derived from the synchronization and non-synchronization of 6-Group and EU. Therefore, The hypothesis of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC has been proved completely, which is a core or foundation of GBCT.
Section 4, including chapter 7 and chapter 8, both is a countermeasure of WBC and application of GBCT. In chapter 7, based on the conclusion of section 1, 2 and 3, the international harmonization is a very important obligation of government to avoid the internecine trap of world economy, which the synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC can be effected by deeds of government, such as economic policy, monetary policy, financial policy and trading
引文
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[47] Fabio Cannova, Angel J. Ubide, 1998. International Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Household Production. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 22 (1998) 545～572。
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[52] Geoff Relph, Peter Barrar, 2003. Overage inventory—how does it occur and why is it important? Int. J. Production Economics 81 - 82 (2003) 163 - 171。
[53] Debashis Guha、Lorene Hiris, 2002. The aggregate credit spread and the business cycle. International Review of Financial Analysis 11 (2002) 219-227。
[54] Norribin Stefan C. and Don E. Schlagenhauf, 1996. The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study, Journal of International Economics 40(1996)85-104.
[55] Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 1998. The international transmission of economic fluctuations: Effects of U. S. business cycles on the Canadian economy, Journal of International Economics 44 (1998) 257-287。
[56] M. Ayhan Kose, Explaining business cycles in small open economies 'How much do world prices matter?' Journal of International Economies 56 (2002) 299-327。
[57] David D. Selover, Roderick V. Jensen, 'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 23 (1999) 591-618。
[58] Robert Kollmann, 1996. Incomplete Asset Markets and the Cross-country Consumption Correlation Puzzle. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 20 (1996) 945～961。
[59] Peril R. 、Plutarchos Sakellaris, 1998. Human Capital Formation and Business Cycle Persistence. Journal of Monetary Economics. 42 (1998) 67～92。
[60] Plutarchos Sakellaris, Antonio Spilimbergo, 2000. Business Cycles and Investment in Human Capital: International Evidence on Higher Education. 52 (2000) 221～256。
[61] Gregory D. Hess、Kwanho Shin, 1998. Intra-national Business Cycles in the United States. Journal of International Economics, 44 (1998) 289～313。
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[63] Steve Ambler、Emanuela Cardia、Christian Zimmermann, 2002, International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model. European Economic Review 46 (2002) 273～300。
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