新兴市场国家的国际资本流动：波动和流向的决定
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摘要
数次金融危机的经验告诉我们，大量国际资本逃离危机国家的过程对这些国家的经济发展以及金融安全起到了巨大的破坏作用。由此，国内外很多学者开始关注新兴市场国家(EMC)国际资本流动的波动问题，并对此进行了大量的理论与实证研究。而国际资本流动的波动并不仅仅体现在金融危机过程中，而是反映在国际资本流动的每时每刻。也就是说，国际资本流动的波动问题存在其本身内在的原因。本文首先将分析新兴市场国际资本流动波动的状况及其内在原因，并进一步分析新兴市场国家国际资本流波动对经济增长的作用，最后分析了新兴市场国际资本流向的决定因素，并对我国未来控制国际资本流动波动性的政策选择进行了分析。
本文的研究结构分为以下几部分：
第一章，导论。
第二章分析EMC国际资本流的波动性及其动态过程。内容有：首先分析新兴市场国家国际资本流的波动特征以及FDI稳定性的形成；采用个案(马来西亚)分析的方法对FDI流的稳定性问题进行深层次分析；并分析了国际资本在新兴市场国家及发达国家之间的份额分配的动态过程。
第三章侧重于分析EMC直接投资资本流和间接投资资本流二者波动的微观基础。主要有：分析了FDI稳定性成因的微观行为基础：并将结论运用于实际FDI稳定增长与增速下降的实际因素分析；对国际投资者选择新兴市场FDI或FPI的行为进行了理论分析，并运用多重均衡存在与否的方法分析了FDI较为稳定的成因以及FPI波动性较强的成因。
第四章侧重于分析金融市场对EMC国际资本流波动的作用。对新兴证券市场的投资者行为及羊群行为、金融脆弱性以及传染问题对新兴市场国际资本流动的影响进行了分析。
第五章对影响EMC国际资本流波动的宏观因素进行了分析。对利率、汇率、货币美元化以及税收、资本管制对国际债券资本流以及国际投机行为的影响进行了简要分析；在分析政治风险与国际资本流动关系的问题时提出了一个新的国际资本流动模型，并就该模型在新兴市场国家的运用作了简要分析；分析了国家风险对新兴市场国际资本流动的影响，对国际信贷评级(国家风险的反映)与新兴市场国际资本流动的关系进行了分析，并在此基础上运用大量数据及已有文献的论证对该问题进行了实证分析。
第六章对EMC国际资本流及其波动对经济增长的作用进行了理论和实证分析。结合文献对直接投资及间接投资对经济增长的作用机制进行了理论总结；并
就样本国家的资本流动及其波动对经济增长的作用进行了实证研究。
第七章采取理论结合实证的方法对EMC国际资本流向的决定因素进行了分
析。首先对“经济增长决定资本流动”这一理论界己有的观点进行了实证研究;
结合文献，可以发现新兴市场国家的国际资本流量占发展中国家资本流动的比重
超过了60%，而其中的人均收入特征相当明显。为了说明这一问题，笔者对人均
收入在新兴市场国家国际资本流动中的作用进行了实证研究;为进一步说明该流
向的决定，笔者“主权国家违约风险”的变动决定国际资本总体流向的问题进行
了理论与实证分析。并就流向的改变对新兴市场国家国际资本流的波动进行了简
要分析。
最后对全文进行简要总结，并就其对我国的启示以及未来我国资本项目开放
后的政策选择提出了建议。
The experience from recent crises tell us that international capital flows which flee from the crisis countries can do great damages to these countries' economic development and financial security. Thus, volatility of Emerging Countries(EMC)' capital flows has attracted more and more researchers' attention, and these researchers have founded a lot of theoretical and empirical analysis. What's more, this kind of volatility of international capital flows exists not only in financial crisis, but also in every time of capital flows, which means volatility of international capital flows has its instinct reasons. This paper analyzes volatility situation of current international capital flows and its reasons at first. Secondly, it analyzes the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on EMC economic growth. At last, it empirically analyzes the determinants of EMC international capital flows.
Section 1 is prologue of this paper.
Section 2 is to analyze volatility situation of current international capital flows and its dynamic process. Firstly this section discusses volatility situation of current international capital flows of EMC and stability of EMC FDI; then from the crisis case of Malaysia this section analyzes the stability of EMC FDI more deeply; Lastly this section analyzes dynamic process of international capital flows quota among emerging countries and developed countries.
Section 3 focuses on the micro-basis of direct and indirect investment capital flows' volatility. Firstly this section analyses the micro-conduct basis of FDI investor and applies its conclusion to the empirical analysis of the reality of EMC FDI capital flows; then theoretically analyzes the international investors' choice between FDI and FPI; lastly from the perspective of multiple-equilibrium's existence or not, this section analyzes the reasons that FDI capital flows are more stable than FPI capital flows.
Section 4 focuses on the effects of financial market on EMC international capital flows, including investors' behavior in emerging security market, herding behavior, financial fragility and contagion.
Section 5 analyzes the macro-factors that affect EMC international capital flows. Firstly this section analyzes some factors' effects on international bond capital flows, such as interest rate, exchange rate, currency dollarization, taxes and control of capital account. Then this section provides a new model about the mechanism of changes of
political risk on international capital flows and applies this model to EMCs. Lastly this section analyzes country risk's effects on EMC international capital flows and empirically tests the relationship between country risk and EMC international capital flows.
Section 6 provides some theoretical and empirical analysis about the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on economic growth.
Section 7 analyzes the direction determinants of EMC international capital flows, combined theoretical methods and empirical methods. Firstly this section focuses on the opinion that "economic growth determines capital flows" empirically. Then this section analyzes theoretically and tests empirically EMC average capita national income's effects on EMC international capital flows. Lastly, in order to explain the determinants of EMC international capital flows more deeply, this section empirically analyzes the effects of sovereign default risk on EMC international capital flows.
本文的研究结构分为以下几部分：
第一章，导论。
第二章分析EMC国际资本流的波动性及其动态过程。内容有：首先分析新兴市场国家国际资本流的波动特征以及FDI稳定性的形成；采用个案(马来西亚)分析的方法对FDI流的稳定性问题进行深层次分析；并分析了国际资本在新兴市场国家及发达国家之间的份额分配的动态过程。
第三章侧重于分析EMC直接投资资本流和间接投资资本流二者波动的微观基础。主要有：分析了FDI稳定性成因的微观行为基础：并将结论运用于实际FDI稳定增长与增速下降的实际因素分析；对国际投资者选择新兴市场FDI或FPI的行为进行了理论分析，并运用多重均衡存在与否的方法分析了FDI较为稳定的成因以及FPI波动性较强的成因。
第四章侧重于分析金融市场对EMC国际资本流波动的作用。对新兴证券市场的投资者行为及羊群行为、金融脆弱性以及传染问题对新兴市场国际资本流动的影响进行了分析。
第五章对影响EMC国际资本流波动的宏观因素进行了分析。对利率、汇率、货币美元化以及税收、资本管制对国际债券资本流以及国际投机行为的影响进行了简要分析；在分析政治风险与国际资本流动关系的问题时提出了一个新的国际资本流动模型，并就该模型在新兴市场国家的运用作了简要分析；分析了国家风险对新兴市场国际资本流动的影响，对国际信贷评级(国家风险的反映)与新兴市场国际资本流动的关系进行了分析，并在此基础上运用大量数据及已有文献的论证对该问题进行了实证分析。
第六章对EMC国际资本流及其波动对经济增长的作用进行了理论和实证分析。结合文献对直接投资及间接投资对经济增长的作用机制进行了理论总结；并
就样本国家的资本流动及其波动对经济增长的作用进行了实证研究。
第七章采取理论结合实证的方法对EMC国际资本流向的决定因素进行了分
析。首先对“经济增长决定资本流动”这一理论界己有的观点进行了实证研究;
结合文献，可以发现新兴市场国家的国际资本流量占发展中国家资本流动的比重
超过了60%，而其中的人均收入特征相当明显。为了说明这一问题，笔者对人均
收入在新兴市场国家国际资本流动中的作用进行了实证研究;为进一步说明该流
向的决定，笔者“主权国家违约风险”的变动决定国际资本总体流向的问题进行
了理论与实证分析。并就流向的改变对新兴市场国家国际资本流的波动进行了简
要分析。
最后对全文进行简要总结，并就其对我国的启示以及未来我国资本项目开放
后的政策选择提出了建议。
The experience from recent crises tell us that international capital flows which flee from the crisis countries can do great damages to these countries' economic development and financial security. Thus, volatility of Emerging Countries(EMC)' capital flows has attracted more and more researchers' attention, and these researchers have founded a lot of theoretical and empirical analysis. What's more, this kind of volatility of international capital flows exists not only in financial crisis, but also in every time of capital flows, which means volatility of international capital flows has its instinct reasons. This paper analyzes volatility situation of current international capital flows and its reasons at first. Secondly, it analyzes the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on EMC economic growth. At last, it empirically analyzes the determinants of EMC international capital flows.
Section 1 is prologue of this paper.
Section 2 is to analyze volatility situation of current international capital flows and its dynamic process. Firstly this section discusses volatility situation of current international capital flows of EMC and stability of EMC FDI; then from the crisis case of Malaysia this section analyzes the stability of EMC FDI more deeply; Lastly this section analyzes dynamic process of international capital flows quota among emerging countries and developed countries.
Section 3 focuses on the micro-basis of direct and indirect investment capital flows' volatility. Firstly this section analyses the micro-conduct basis of FDI investor and applies its conclusion to the empirical analysis of the reality of EMC FDI capital flows; then theoretically analyzes the international investors' choice between FDI and FPI; lastly from the perspective of multiple-equilibrium's existence or not, this section analyzes the reasons that FDI capital flows are more stable than FPI capital flows.
Section 4 focuses on the effects of financial market on EMC international capital flows, including investors' behavior in emerging security market, herding behavior, financial fragility and contagion.
Section 5 analyzes the macro-factors that affect EMC international capital flows. Firstly this section analyzes some factors' effects on international bond capital flows, such as interest rate, exchange rate, currency dollarization, taxes and control of capital account. Then this section provides a new model about the mechanism of changes of
political risk on international capital flows and applies this model to EMCs. Lastly this section analyzes country risk's effects on EMC international capital flows and empirically tests the relationship between country risk and EMC international capital flows.
Section 6 provides some theoretical and empirical analysis about the effects of EMC international capital flows and its volatility on economic growth.
Section 7 analyzes the direction determinants of EMC international capital flows, combined theoretical methods and empirical methods. Firstly this section focuses on the opinion that "economic growth determines capital flows" empirically. Then this section analyzes theoretically and tests empirically EMC average capita national income's effects on EMC international capital flows. Lastly, in order to explain the determinants of EMC international capital flows more deeply, this section empirically analyzes the effects of sovereign default risk on EMC international capital flows.
引文
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