城市水环境变化及其驱动力研究
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摘要
城市水环境是城市的重要组成部分,为城市提供重要的生态功能和生态保障。然而,随着社会经济发展,特别是城市化的快速发展,城市水环境发生了显著变化。本文以南昌市为例,探讨城市水环境变化的影响因子以及相应的驱动机制,对实现城市社会经济与生态环境协调发展、促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。
通过对南昌市社会经济发展和城市水环境变化状况的分析,结合驱动力相关理论,采用聚类分析、相关性分析等方法,探讨南昌市城市水环境变化的主要驱动因子和驱动机理。基于主要的驱动因子,采用情景设定分析未来南昌市城市水环境变化趋势,进而分析南昌市水环境安全状况,提出相应的保护对策。
论文研究的主要结论如下:
(1)南昌市城市化水平受工业化程度影响较大,市区主要水体水质受工业废水与生活污水排放量影响较大。由于南昌市工业废水与生活污水排放主要集中在赣江八一桥至尤口段,八一桥、叶楼、尤口断面COD、NH_3-N浓度与城区人口、第二产业产值、人均收入水平呈较为显著的相关性。
(2)南昌市水环境变化的主要驱动力有人口、城镇化、经济发展、土地利用、产业结构、水资源禀赋、政策法规等主要7个因素,采用定性与定量相结合阐述了7种因素的驱动作用。
(3)基于主要的驱动因子预测了南昌市2012年工业需水量、城市生活需水量、工业废水排放量和城镇污水排放量分别为8.47×10~8m~3、2.47×10~8m~3、1.27×10~8m~3、2.1×10~8m~3;2020年分别为8.87×10~8m~3、2.9×10~8m~3、1.67×10~8m~3、2.47×10~8m~3;2002年比2007年分别增长18.11%、88.31%、59.04%、94.49%。以目前南昌市的污水处理能力来看,难以处理2012年及2020年的废水排放量,南昌市应进一步加强污水处理设施建设及应对措施。
(4)依据PSR模型分析了南昌市水环境安全,计算结果显示评价指数为0.71,说明南昌市的水环境总体状况较为安全。但同时也存在一些水环境安全问题,主要是由社会经济和用水环节所造成的。
(5)为保障南昌市水环境安全,依据PSR指标体系的响应指标提出了南昌市水环境保护的对策。
Urban water environment is an important part of the city, which provid giant ecological functions and ecological shelters for the city as the same time. However, with social-economic development, especially the rapid development of urbanization, urban water environment has undergone significant changes, such as water quality declining, water area minishing, water strage capacity reducing, even the uses and functions of water ecological changing etc. This paper explores the impacting factors of urban water environmental changes and corresponding driving mechanism taking Nanchang City as an example, which has great significance to achieve the coordinated development of the urban socio-economic and ecological environment, and to promote regional sustainable development.
Analysis on the development of socio-economic and urban water environment changing situation of Nanchang City, this paper explores the main driving mechanism and driving factors of urban water environmental changes in this area combined with some theories related to the driving force, using cluster analysis and correlation analysis. Based on the major driving factors, it also forecasts the changing trend of Nanchang urban water environment with the help of Future Scenarios, then analyzes the security situation of Nanchang water environment and proposes appropriate protection measures according to the existing issues.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) The level of urbanization in Nanchang is mainly influenced by the degree of industrialization, where the industrial wastewater and domestic sewage emissions have a greater impact on the main urban water quality. The concentration of COD and NH3-N in Bayi bridge, Yelou and Youkou section shows a great significant correlation with the urban population, secondary industry output value and personal income due to the industrial wastewater and domestic sewage discharge in Nanchang city concentrated in the Ganjiang River from Bayi bridge to Youkou section.
(2) The main driving forces of water environmental changes in Nanchang city are composed by 7 factors like population, urbanization, economic development, land uses, industrial structure, water resources endowment, policies and regulations et al, whose driving effect is described using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.
(3) Based on the major driving factors, this paper predicts the industrial water requirement, urban domestic water demand, industrial emissions and urban waste water discharge of Nanchang City are as follows: 0.847 billion cubic meters, 0.247 billion cubic meters, 0.127 billion cubic meters, 0.21 billion cubic meters in 2012; Up to 2020, each variable are 0.887 billion cubic meters, 0.29 billion cubic meters, 0.167 billion cubic meters, 0.247 billion cubic meters; and each variable increases 18.11%, 88.31%, 59.04% and 94.49% according to the year 2007. Nanchang City's sewage treatment capacity is not enough at present, which needs further strengthen the construction of sewage treatment facilities.
(4) Acording to the PSR model to analyze the water environment security in Nanchang city, the index of evaluation shows 0.71. The result reveals that the overall situation of water environment in Nanchang city is safe. But there are still some security problems of water environment which are mainly caused by socio-economic and water uses.
(5) In order to protect the water safety in Nanchang city, we can promote its water environment through some strategies, such as strongly water-saving, improving technical level, adjusting industrial structure, continue to increase environmental protection investment, raising awareness of water environment, construction of water cultural, which are necessary to achieve sustainable economic and social development in Nanchang city.
通过对南昌市社会经济发展和城市水环境变化状况的分析,结合驱动力相关理论,采用聚类分析、相关性分析等方法,探讨南昌市城市水环境变化的主要驱动因子和驱动机理。基于主要的驱动因子,采用情景设定分析未来南昌市城市水环境变化趋势,进而分析南昌市水环境安全状况,提出相应的保护对策。
论文研究的主要结论如下:
(1)南昌市城市化水平受工业化程度影响较大,市区主要水体水质受工业废水与生活污水排放量影响较大。由于南昌市工业废水与生活污水排放主要集中在赣江八一桥至尤口段,八一桥、叶楼、尤口断面COD、NH_3-N浓度与城区人口、第二产业产值、人均收入水平呈较为显著的相关性。
(2)南昌市水环境变化的主要驱动力有人口、城镇化、经济发展、土地利用、产业结构、水资源禀赋、政策法规等主要7个因素,采用定性与定量相结合阐述了7种因素的驱动作用。
(3)基于主要的驱动因子预测了南昌市2012年工业需水量、城市生活需水量、工业废水排放量和城镇污水排放量分别为8.47×10~8m~3、2.47×10~8m~3、1.27×10~8m~3、2.1×10~8m~3;2020年分别为8.87×10~8m~3、2.9×10~8m~3、1.67×10~8m~3、2.47×10~8m~3;2002年比2007年分别增长18.11%、88.31%、59.04%、94.49%。以目前南昌市的污水处理能力来看,难以处理2012年及2020年的废水排放量,南昌市应进一步加强污水处理设施建设及应对措施。
(4)依据PSR模型分析了南昌市水环境安全,计算结果显示评价指数为0.71,说明南昌市的水环境总体状况较为安全。但同时也存在一些水环境安全问题,主要是由社会经济和用水环节所造成的。
(5)为保障南昌市水环境安全,依据PSR指标体系的响应指标提出了南昌市水环境保护的对策。
Urban water environment is an important part of the city, which provid giant ecological functions and ecological shelters for the city as the same time. However, with social-economic development, especially the rapid development of urbanization, urban water environment has undergone significant changes, such as water quality declining, water area minishing, water strage capacity reducing, even the uses and functions of water ecological changing etc. This paper explores the impacting factors of urban water environmental changes and corresponding driving mechanism taking Nanchang City as an example, which has great significance to achieve the coordinated development of the urban socio-economic and ecological environment, and to promote regional sustainable development.
Analysis on the development of socio-economic and urban water environment changing situation of Nanchang City, this paper explores the main driving mechanism and driving factors of urban water environmental changes in this area combined with some theories related to the driving force, using cluster analysis and correlation analysis. Based on the major driving factors, it also forecasts the changing trend of Nanchang urban water environment with the help of Future Scenarios, then analyzes the security situation of Nanchang water environment and proposes appropriate protection measures according to the existing issues.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) The level of urbanization in Nanchang is mainly influenced by the degree of industrialization, where the industrial wastewater and domestic sewage emissions have a greater impact on the main urban water quality. The concentration of COD and NH3-N in Bayi bridge, Yelou and Youkou section shows a great significant correlation with the urban population, secondary industry output value and personal income due to the industrial wastewater and domestic sewage discharge in Nanchang city concentrated in the Ganjiang River from Bayi bridge to Youkou section.
(2) The main driving forces of water environmental changes in Nanchang city are composed by 7 factors like population, urbanization, economic development, land uses, industrial structure, water resources endowment, policies and regulations et al, whose driving effect is described using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.
(3) Based on the major driving factors, this paper predicts the industrial water requirement, urban domestic water demand, industrial emissions and urban waste water discharge of Nanchang City are as follows: 0.847 billion cubic meters, 0.247 billion cubic meters, 0.127 billion cubic meters, 0.21 billion cubic meters in 2012; Up to 2020, each variable are 0.887 billion cubic meters, 0.29 billion cubic meters, 0.167 billion cubic meters, 0.247 billion cubic meters; and each variable increases 18.11%, 88.31%, 59.04% and 94.49% according to the year 2007. Nanchang City's sewage treatment capacity is not enough at present, which needs further strengthen the construction of sewage treatment facilities.
(4) Acording to the PSR model to analyze the water environment security in Nanchang city, the index of evaluation shows 0.71. The result reveals that the overall situation of water environment in Nanchang city is safe. But there are still some security problems of water environment which are mainly caused by socio-economic and water uses.
(5) In order to protect the water safety in Nanchang city, we can promote its water environment through some strategies, such as strongly water-saving, improving technical level, adjusting industrial structure, continue to increase environmental protection investment, raising awareness of water environment, construction of water cultural, which are necessary to achieve sustainable economic and social development in Nanchang city.
引文
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