东亚区域内贸易发展研究
摘要
近二十年来,东亚区域内贸易的流量、结构、流向、模式和相互关系都发生了显著变化,并引起了世人的广泛关注。这些变化虽然与世界经济整体形势的发展变化密切相关,但主要与东亚经济的快速增长、政府实行的出口导向型经济发展战略、区域分工体系的建立与升级、中国经济的崛起和地区性经济合作组织的影响等内在因素直接相关。东亚区域内贸易在快速发展的同时,还面临贸易不平衡与全球经济失衡、区域内贸易摩擦复杂化、区域货币金融合作滞后和经济体间存在多种冲突等问题。在现有条件下,东亚区域内出口贸易潜力适中,而进口贸易潜力较大。东亚各经济体应从促进区域内最终产品市场和地区性经济合作组织发展,调整对外开放战略,推动金融合作的实质性进展和物流建设与合作等方面促进区域内贸易发展。
East Asia has been the most rapidly developing area, as the new center and power of the world economic. At the same time, East Asia has some problems on the development of economics. That situation has appeared fully in the developing state of intra-regional trade. To research deeply, make clear its characteristics, problems and potentiality, would possess great momentous current significance on the development, cooperation and formulating the development policies of Chinese foreign economics and trade. That research would improve the Trade Gravity Model to some extent.
A lot of full and accurate statistic data were used in the objective description and qualitative analysis. Developing and changing state, reasons and problems of intra-regional trade were revealed. The Trade Gravity Model was applied to examine empirically and forecast the previous research. In the end of thesis, the growing ways and countermeasures of improving intra-regional trade in East Asia were put forward.
In the past twenty years, East Asia intra-regional trade have really changed much, as has been paid widespread attention all over the world. In the aspect of trade flows, the intra-regional trade in East Asia grow rapidly, the growing rate of that is faster than the world trade, and faster than the trade to the world and America. Thus the trade position of East Asia in the world has been raised, the main trade area of East Asia has been transformed from inter-region especially America to intro-region. In the aspect of trade structure, the trade structure of intra-regional trade in East Asia has been more and more senior, finished manufactured goods trade in East Asia, especially machinery and transport equipment trade, the share of parts and components trade has been fast raised. In the aspect of trade direction, China and Japan have been the center of the East Asia, the transit trade position of China Hong Kong and Singapore has been dropped relatively, the regional trade position of economic cooperative agreement has been raised relatively. In the aspect of trade pattern, the intra-industry trade in East Asia has been improved relatively. In the aspect of trade relation, the complementary tendency has been greater than competitiveness. The above characteristics are the same obvious in the export and import trade of intra-region in East Asia. The above development of East Asia trade show that, the poison of East Asia as the trade locomotive of the world has been strengthened, the economic cooperation and cohesion of East Asia economies have been strengthened, the direct economic connections have been strengthened, the function of regional economic cooperation has been strengthened, the trade structure and pattern of East Asia have been being optimized and advanced continuously.
Although the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia in the past two decades is closely related to the whole situation of the world economics, it is mainly related to the following internal factors. Firstly, the rapid development of East Asia economics is the base of the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia. The influence extent of the economics development of export country is greater than that of import country. That indicates the intra-industry trade caused by economic of scale doesn’t only arise between two countries whose economic levels are approximate, but also arise between two countries whose economic levels are very different. Secondly, the governments of every economy in East Asia generally take export orientation policies of economic development, adjust measures of intervening economic continuously, ensure effective enforcement of the export orientation strategy, and provide institution requirement for the rapid development of East Asia trade. The influence extent of economic institution to intra-regional export trade in East Asia is greater than that of import trade, and that of economic institution of import country is greater than that of export country. Thirdly, regional labor division systems in East Asia region which have been established and escalated have been important promoting forces to the development of intro-regional trade. The present regional labor division systems of East Asia include inter-industry division system as well as intra-industry and intra-product division system, vertical division system as well as horizontal division system. The promoting effects of labor division system in East Asia region to import trade of every economy in East Asia are more remarkable. Fourthly, China which is high-speed developing is promoting the offer and demand increase of intra-regional trade in East Asia, and speeding up the trade evolution in East Asia. The development of regional economic cooperation which has been stimulated by China and the friendly diplomatic policies have enhanced cohesive and appeal forces among every economy in East Asia. Fifthly, the effects of four regional economic cooperation organizations on intra-regional trade in East Asia are different. The improving functions of ACFTA to the import and export trade of related economies are all obvious, but the improving functions of CEPA only to the export trade of related economies are obvious, and that of AFTA only to the import trade of related economies are obvious, on the contrary that of JSEPA are not obvious. Just because the above factors would continuously affect East Asia economics in the future, the intra-regional trade in East Asia would grow better and better, strengthen the cohesive force of East Asia, improve the position of East Asia in the world.
When intra-regional trade in East Asia develops very fast, there are several problems such as trade imbalance development, intra-regional trade friction, backward financial and currency cooperation and some effect of manifold conflict. In the view of future development, the problem of trade imbalance can not be solved until the intra-regional final product market can be established. Nevertheless, the East Asia economies are paying close attention to internal needs and import, the problem of trade imbalance may be mitigated soon. The backward financial and currency cooperation may be improved progressively because of serious economic benefit of East Asia economies. The manifold conflict among East Asia economies may not be more acute because of serious economic benefit also. But the problem of intra-regional trade friction can be more and more obvious because of more and more association on intra-regional trade and common benefit not but country benefit in East Asia.
The thesis shows, the export potentialities of China Hong Kong and Philippines to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of Malaysia, China Taiwan and Republic of Korea to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The import potentialities of China Hong Kong, Japan, Indonesia to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of China, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The most important effort to improve intra-regional trade in East Asia is to retain present positive factors and cultivate some new positive factors.
The thesis indicates, the following efforts on improving intra-regional trade in East Asia should be put forth. At first, nontariff barrier from Japan, Republic of Korea, China Hong Kong, China Taiwan and Singapore should be shut down, developing economic level of China, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand should be raised, and then intra-regional final product market of intra-regional trade should be enlarged, so that ensure stability and continuity of developing intra-regional trade in East Asia. At second, the relationship between China and Japan should be coordinated, and complete economic cooperation in East Asia should be strengthened, and the development of regional economic cooperation organization should be improved on account of trade facilitation. At third, external expansion strategy should be adjusted. That is gradual and proper external expansion should be advocated, export structure should be superior, import trade should be paid more attention, and foreign direct investment should be imported positively and rationally. At fourth, information linkage and economic coordination should be strengthened, regional convenient mechanism for fund-raising should be improved, Asia bond market should be cultivated, exchange rate cooperation should be promoted, and politics mutual confidence should be enhanced to advance the essential development of financial cooperation in East Asia. At fifth, East Asia logistics infrastructure, Informational and standardized construction of logistics and the third party logistics in East Asia should be strengthened.
East Asia has been the most rapidly developing area, as the new center and power of the world economic. At the same time, East Asia has some problems on the development of economics. That situation has appeared fully in the developing state of intra-regional trade. To research deeply, make clear its characteristics, problems and potentiality, would possess great momentous current significance on the development, cooperation and formulating the development policies of Chinese foreign economics and trade. That research would improve the Trade Gravity Model to some extent.
A lot of full and accurate statistic data were used in the objective description and qualitative analysis. Developing and changing state, reasons and problems of intra-regional trade were revealed. The Trade Gravity Model was applied to examine empirically and forecast the previous research. In the end of thesis, the growing ways and countermeasures of improving intra-regional trade in East Asia were put forward.
In the past twenty years, East Asia intra-regional trade have really changed much, as has been paid widespread attention all over the world. In the aspect of trade flows, the intra-regional trade in East Asia grow rapidly, the growing rate of that is faster than the world trade, and faster than the trade to the world and America. Thus the trade position of East Asia in the world has been raised, the main trade area of East Asia has been transformed from inter-region especially America to intro-region. In the aspect of trade structure, the trade structure of intra-regional trade in East Asia has been more and more senior, finished manufactured goods trade in East Asia, especially machinery and transport equipment trade, the share of parts and components trade has been fast raised. In the aspect of trade direction, China and Japan have been the center of the East Asia, the transit trade position of China Hong Kong and Singapore has been dropped relatively, the regional trade position of economic cooperative agreement has been raised relatively. In the aspect of trade pattern, the intra-industry trade in East Asia has been improved relatively. In the aspect of trade relation, the complementary tendency has been greater than competitiveness. The above characteristics are the same obvious in the export and import trade of intra-region in East Asia. The above development of East Asia trade show that, the poison of East Asia as the trade locomotive of the world has been strengthened, the economic cooperation and cohesion of East Asia economies have been strengthened, the direct economic connections have been strengthened, the function of regional economic cooperation has been strengthened, the trade structure and pattern of East Asia have been being optimized and advanced continuously.
Although the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia in the past two decades is closely related to the whole situation of the world economics, it is mainly related to the following internal factors. Firstly, the rapid development of East Asia economics is the base of the development of intra-regional trade in East Asia. The influence extent of the economics development of export country is greater than that of import country. That indicates the intra-industry trade caused by economic of scale doesn’t only arise between two countries whose economic levels are approximate, but also arise between two countries whose economic levels are very different. Secondly, the governments of every economy in East Asia generally take export orientation policies of economic development, adjust measures of intervening economic continuously, ensure effective enforcement of the export orientation strategy, and provide institution requirement for the rapid development of East Asia trade. The influence extent of economic institution to intra-regional export trade in East Asia is greater than that of import trade, and that of economic institution of import country is greater than that of export country. Thirdly, regional labor division systems in East Asia region which have been established and escalated have been important promoting forces to the development of intro-regional trade. The present regional labor division systems of East Asia include inter-industry division system as well as intra-industry and intra-product division system, vertical division system as well as horizontal division system. The promoting effects of labor division system in East Asia region to import trade of every economy in East Asia are more remarkable. Fourthly, China which is high-speed developing is promoting the offer and demand increase of intra-regional trade in East Asia, and speeding up the trade evolution in East Asia. The development of regional economic cooperation which has been stimulated by China and the friendly diplomatic policies have enhanced cohesive and appeal forces among every economy in East Asia. Fifthly, the effects of four regional economic cooperation organizations on intra-regional trade in East Asia are different. The improving functions of ACFTA to the import and export trade of related economies are all obvious, but the improving functions of CEPA only to the export trade of related economies are obvious, and that of AFTA only to the import trade of related economies are obvious, on the contrary that of JSEPA are not obvious. Just because the above factors would continuously affect East Asia economics in the future, the intra-regional trade in East Asia would grow better and better, strengthen the cohesive force of East Asia, improve the position of East Asia in the world.
When intra-regional trade in East Asia develops very fast, there are several problems such as trade imbalance development, intra-regional trade friction, backward financial and currency cooperation and some effect of manifold conflict. In the view of future development, the problem of trade imbalance can not be solved until the intra-regional final product market can be established. Nevertheless, the East Asia economies are paying close attention to internal needs and import, the problem of trade imbalance may be mitigated soon. The backward financial and currency cooperation may be improved progressively because of serious economic benefit of East Asia economies. The manifold conflict among East Asia economies may not be more acute because of serious economic benefit also. But the problem of intra-regional trade friction can be more and more obvious because of more and more association on intra-regional trade and common benefit not but country benefit in East Asia.
The thesis shows, the export potentialities of China Hong Kong and Philippines to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of Malaysia, China Taiwan and Republic of Korea to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The import potentialities of China Hong Kong, Japan, Indonesia to East Asia economies would be relatively great, and the export potentialities of China, Malaysia, Philippines and Singapore to East Asia economies would be relatively little. The most important effort to improve intra-regional trade in East Asia is to retain present positive factors and cultivate some new positive factors.
The thesis indicates, the following efforts on improving intra-regional trade in East Asia should be put forth. At first, nontariff barrier from Japan, Republic of Korea, China Hong Kong, China Taiwan and Singapore should be shut down, developing economic level of China, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand should be raised, and then intra-regional final product market of intra-regional trade should be enlarged, so that ensure stability and continuity of developing intra-regional trade in East Asia. At second, the relationship between China and Japan should be coordinated, and complete economic cooperation in East Asia should be strengthened, and the development of regional economic cooperation organization should be improved on account of trade facilitation. At third, external expansion strategy should be adjusted. That is gradual and proper external expansion should be advocated, export structure should be superior, import trade should be paid more attention, and foreign direct investment should be imported positively and rationally. At fourth, information linkage and economic coordination should be strengthened, regional convenient mechanism for fund-raising should be improved, Asia bond market should be cultivated, exchange rate cooperation should be promoted, and politics mutual confidence should be enhanced to advance the essential development of financial cooperation in East Asia. At fifth, East Asia logistics infrastructure, Informational and standardized construction of logistics and the third party logistics in East Asia should be strengthened.
引文
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37. 丁一兵:《东亚货币合作的新进展》,《世界经济》,2006 年第 3 期,第 82-90 页。
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41. 何帆、张斌、张明:《对〈清迈协议〉的评估及改革建议》,《国际金融研究》,2005 年第 7 期,第 16-22 页。
42. 黄卫平、朱文晖:《温特制:美国新经济与全球产业重组的微观基础》,《美国研究》,2004 年第 2 期,第 7-25 页。
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44. 纪昀:《从新古典到新兴古典:国际贸易理论的最新发展》,《世界经济研究》,2000 年第 1 期,第 83-87 页。
45. 姜书竹、张旭昆:《东盟贸易效应的引力模型》,《数量经济技术经济研究》,2003 年第 10 期,第 53-57 页。
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49. 李晓、丁一兵:《论东亚货币合作的具体措施》,《世界经济》,2002年 11 期,第 3-10 页。
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53. 李海舰:《跨国公司进入及其对中国制造业的影响》,《中国工业经济》,2003 年第 5 期,第 15-24 页。
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101. 郑京淑:《东亚的区域内贸易发展及其动力机制研究》,《南开经济研究》2005 年第 4 期,第 107—112 页。
102. 郑昭阳、陈漓高:《东亚国家外贸关系竞争与合作的分析》,《世界经济研究》,2003 年第 2 期,第 75-79 页。
103. 郑恺:《汇率波动与国际贸易关系研究综述》,《经济学动态》,2006年第 10 期,第 107—111 页。
104. 周小兵:《我国周边贸易投资结构与竞争关系》,《未来 10-15 年我国周边的战略环境》,世界知识出版社,2003 年版。
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106. 周琳:《东亚区域贸易关系的实证分析》,《内蒙古财经学院学报》,2003 年第 2 期,第 1-5 页。
1. 《中国统计年鉴》,历年,中国统计出版社。
2. 联合国 COMTRADE 数据库。
3. HTTP: //stats.unctad.org /Handbook /Tableviewer
4. WWW.geobytes.com
5. HTTP: //www.cacs.gov.cn
6. HTTP://aric.adb.org/index.asp
7. http://www.hiik.de/de/index_d.htm
8. 美国传统基金会和《华尔街日报》,《经济自由度指数报告》,历年。
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① Jonne Cutler,Kevin Chow,Carrie Chan and Unias Li,“Intra-regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China”,Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin,2004,No.12,pp.10.
① 李淑娟:《东亚区域内贸易发展的特点及成因》,《当代亚太》,2006 年第 1 期,第 39 页。
① 杨小凯、张永生:《新兴古典经济学与超边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社,2003 修订版,第 65页。
① Edward E. Leamer and James Levinsohn .International Trade Policy: The Evidence[A]. Gene M. Grossman and Kenneth Rogoff. Handbook of International Economics Vol.3 [C]. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1995, 1339-1394.
① Jonne Cutler,Kevin Chow,Carrie Chan and Unias Li,”Intra-regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China“,Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin,2004,No.12,pp.10.
① Jonne Cutler,Kevin Chow,Carrie Chan and Unias Li,”Intra-regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China“,Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin,2004,No.12,pp.11.
① Jonne Cutler,Kevin Chow,Carrie Chan and Unias Li,”Intra-regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China“,Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin,2004,No.12,pp.10.
②李晓、丁一兵、秦婷婷:《中国在东亚经济中地位的提升:基于贸易动向的考察》,《世界经济与政治论坛》,2005 年第 5 期,第 5 页。
① 张曙霄:《中国对外贸易结构论》,中国经济出版社,2003 年版第 115 页和第 121 页。
① Ng, Francis and Alexander Yeats (2003),”Major Trade Trends in East Asia.” World Bank Policy Rearch Paper 3084,pp24.
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①杨小凯、张永生:《新兴古典经济学与超边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社,2003 修订版,第 65页。
①于同申:《发展经济学—新世纪经济发展的理论与政策》,中国人民大学出版社,2002 年版,第249-250 页。
①戴晓芙、郭定平:《东亚发展模式与区域合作》,复旦大学出版社,第 86 页。
②世界银行,《东亚的复苏与超越》,中国人民大学出版社,第 70 页。
①世界银行,《东亚的复苏与超越》,中国人民大学出版社,第 184 页。
②汪慕恒:《1999-2000 年,韩国的对外贸易》《经济资料译丛》2001 年 1 期,48 页,转引自日本贸易振兴会,《贸易振兴白皮书:贸易篇》,2000 年。
③ 安忠荣:《现代东亚经济论》,北京大学出版社,2004 年版,第 89 页。
① 安忠荣:《现代东亚经济论》,北京大学出版社,2004 年版,第 38-40 页。
② 丁冰:《资本主义国家市场经济研究》,山东人民出版社,2000 年,第 315 页。
③沈红芳:《东亚经济发展模式比较研究》,厦门大学出版社,2004 年版,第 151-152 页。
①根据 HTTP: //stats.unctad.org /Handbook /Tableviewer 数据计算。
②池元吉:《世界经济概论》,高等教育出版社,2003 年版,第 9 页。
① 张曙霄,吴丹:《世界经济概论》,经济科学出版社,2005 年版,第 4 页。
③黄卫平、朱文晖:《温特制:美国新经济与全球产业重组的微观基础》,《美国研究》,2004 年第 2期,第 7-25 页。
① 田文、刘厚俊:《产品内分工下西方贸易理论的新发展》,《经济学动态》,2006 年第 5 期,第 69页。
② Jonne Cutler,Kevin Chow,Carrie Chan and Unias Li,”Intra-regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China“,Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin,2004,No.12,pp.11.
①吴丹、邹颖娟:《国际直接投资与东亚国家和地区间贸易的互补性关系分析》,《工业技术经济》,2006 年第七期,第 146-148 页。
① Prema-chandra Athukorala and Nobuaki Yamashita ,”Production Fragmentation and Trade Integration: East Asia in a Global Context ”,paper prepared for the workshop on Regional Integration with Particular Reference to Asia ,Claremont Mckenna College , Claremont, CA,USA, February 25,2005,P.31.
① Joint Media Statement of the Nineteenth Meeting of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) Council , Vientiane , 27 September 2005, Http//www.aseansec.org/17772.htm.
② Joint Media Statement of the Thirty Seventh ASEAN Economic Minister’s (AEM) Meeting Vientiane , 28 September 2005, Http//www.aseansec.org/17778.htm.
①陆建人:《中国-东盟自由贸易区的进展与问题》,中国信息报,2005 年 11 月 16 日,007 版。
①赵夫增:《世界经济结构性变化与经常账户失衡》,《国际金融研究》,2006 年第 4 期,第 44-51 页。
①相关材料散见中国贸易救济网,网址 HTTP: //www.cacs.gov.cn。
①中国贸易救济网,网址 HTTP: //www.cacs.gov.cn。
② 武长海:《应对国外知识产权摩擦:全民进行时》,《国际贸易》,2006 年第 9 期,第 56 页。
③ 赵晓、柳阳:《再论中国崛起之“国际经济摩擦时代”》,《国际经济评论》,2005 年第 3 期,第11 页。
① 丁一兵:《东亚货币合作的新进展》,《世界经济》,2006 年第三期,第 83 页。
②李晓、丁一兵:《现阶段的东亚金融合作:面临的挑战及政策建议》,《国际经济评论》,2005 年5-6,第 58 页。
① [美]保罗?克鲁格曼:《克鲁格曼国际贸易新理论》,中国社会科学出版社,2001 年第 1 版,第 13页。
①王志明、袁建新:《技术性贸易壁垒的影响及中国的对策》,《世界经济》,2003 年第七期,第 31页。
②李树:《日本的技术性贸易壁垒和我国的对策》,《世界经济与政治论坛》,2004 年第一期,第 46页。
①吴丹:《中国影响下的东亚新型产业循环机制与区域经济合作》,《亚太经济》,2005 年第五期,46-47 页。
① 熊启泉、杨十二:《重新审视进口在经济增长中的作用》,《国际贸易问题》,2005 年第二期,第10 页。
① 丁一兵:《东亚货币合作的新进展》,《世界经济》,2006 年第三期,第 83 页。
② 王之泰:《中国物流业成本高在体制》,《新华文摘》,2004 年第 12 期,第 42 页。
①王力军:《国际贸易与现代物流》,《金融教学与研究》,2005 年第一期,第 31 页。
①周启蕾:《物流学概论》,清华大学出版社,2005 年版,第 332 页。
②马飞雄:《我国发展第三方物流企业的制约因素及对策》,《国际经贸探索》,2006 年第一期,第80-81 页。
③杨三根、段钢:《现代物流业的发展和全球供应连管理》,《世界经济研究》,2005 年第九期 48 页。
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3. [美]H·钱纳里等:《工业化和经济增长的比较研究》,上海三联书店,1989 年版。
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6. [美]大卫·莫契拉:《权力狂潮:全球资讯科技势力大预言》,麦格·希尔台湾公司,1999 年版。
7. [日]桥本寿朗、长谷川信、宫岛英昭:《现代日本经济》,上海财经大学出版社,2004 年第二版。
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9. [韩]安忠荣:《现代东亚经济论》,北京大学出版社,2004 年版。
10. 卡菲?克拉米:《东亚一体化-共享增长的贸易政策议程》,中国财政经济出版社,2004 年版。
11. 世界银行:《东亚的复苏与超越》,中国人民大学出版社,2001 年版。
12. 池元吉:《世界经济概论》,高等教育出版社,2003 年版。
13. 戴晓芙、郭定平:《东亚发展模式与区域合作》,厦门大学出版社,2005 年版。
14. 高鸿业、刘凤良:《20 世纪西方经济学的发展》,商务印书馆,2004年版。
15. 金哲松:《国际贸易结构与流向》,中国计划出版社,2000 年版。
16. 廖少廉、陈雯、赵洪:《东盟区域经济合作研究》,中国对外经济贸易出版社,2003 年版。
17. 刘厚俊:《国际贸易新发展-理论、政策、实践》,科学出版社,2005年第二版。
18. 刘力臻:《市场经济“现代体制”与“东亚模式”》,商务印书馆,2000年版。
19. 马宏伟:《东亚崛起与危机的制度分析》,中国金融出版社,2005 年版。
20. 孙国辉:《跨国公司内部贸易研究》,山东人民出版社,2002 年版。
21. 沈红芳:《东亚经济发展模式比较研究》,厦门大学出版社,2004 年第二版。
22. 宋新宁、陈岳:《国际政治经济学概论》,中国人民大学出版社,1999年版。
23. 王振锁、李钢哲:《东亚区域经济合作:中国与日本》,天津人民出版社,2002 年版。
24. 汪斌:《国际区域产业结构分析导论—一个一般理论及其对中国的应用分析》,上海人民出版社,2001 年版。
25. 吴建伟:《国际间产业竞争与市场容量》,上海三联出版社、上海人民出版社,1999 年版。
26. 杨小凯、张永生:《新兴古典经济学与超边际分析》,社会科学文献出版社,2003 修订版。
27. 张二震、马野青、方勇:《贸易投资一体化与中国的战略》,人民出版社,2004 年版。
28. 张海东:《技术性贸易壁垒与中国产业安全》,上海财经大学出版社,2006 年版。
29. 张曙霄:《中国对外贸易结构论》,中国经济出版社,2003 年版。
30. 张曙霄、吴丹:《世界经济概论》,经济科学出版社,2005 年版。
31. 张岩贵:《日本与东亚地区的贸易、投资关系》,天津人民出版社,2003 年版。
32. 张杰:《欧盟与东亚的经贸关系》,东北财经大学出版社,1999 年版。
33. 郑昭阳:《东亚区域贸易合作》,中国商务出版社,2004 年版。
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48. 李晓、丁一兵、秦婷婷:《中国在东亚经济中地位的提升:基于贸易动向的考察》,《世界经济与政治论坛》,2005 年第 5 期,第 1-7 页。
49. 李晓、丁一兵:《论东亚货币合作的具体措施》,《世界经济》,2002年 11 期,第 3-10 页。
50. 李晓、丁一兵:《现阶段的东亚金融合作:面临的挑战及政策建议》,《国际经济评论》,2005 年 5-6,第 57-61 页。
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53. 李海舰:《跨国公司进入及其对中国制造业的影响》,《中国工业经济》,2003 年第 5 期,第 15-24 页。
54. 李荣林:《国际贸易与国际投资的关系:文献综述》,《世界经济》,2002 年第 4 期,第 44-46 页。
55. 李树:《日本的技术性贸易壁垒和我国的对策》,《世界经济与政治论坛》,2004 年第 1 期,第 46 页。
56. 李扬、余维彬:《全球经济失衡及中国面临的挑战》,《国际金融研究》,2006 年第 2 期,第 12-18 页。
57. 林玲、王炎:《贸易引力模型对中国双边贸易的实证检验和政策意义》,《世界经济研究》,2004 年第 7 期,第 54-58 页。
58. 刘力:《当前中国面临的国家经济摩擦与对策》,《管理世界》,2004年第 9 期,73-80 页。
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101. 郑京淑:《东亚的区域内贸易发展及其动力机制研究》,《南开经济研究》2005 年第 4 期,第 107—112 页。
102. 郑昭阳、陈漓高:《东亚国家外贸关系竞争与合作的分析》,《世界经济研究》,2003 年第 2 期,第 75-79 页。
103. 郑恺:《汇率波动与国际贸易关系研究综述》,《经济学动态》,2006年第 10 期,第 107—111 页。
104. 周小兵:《我国周边贸易投资结构与竞争关系》,《未来 10-15 年我国周边的战略环境》,世界知识出版社,2003 年版。
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106. 周琳:《东亚区域贸易关系的实证分析》,《内蒙古财经学院学报》,2003 年第 2 期,第 1-5 页。
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2. 联合国 COMTRADE 数据库。
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7. http://www.hiik.de/de/index_d.htm
8. 美国传统基金会和《华尔街日报》,《经济自由度指数报告》,历年。
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