中国资本外逃问题剖析
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摘要
本文从系统梳理国内外资本外逃相关文献开始,首先确立一种符合我国当前外汇管理体制的资本外逃定义,即以是否符合外汇管理规定作为区分资本外流正常与不正常的重要标准和界限;然后通过综合比较国际国内通用的资本外逃测算方法,对主要的两种测算方法(直接测算法和间接测算法)之间的内在联系进行深入探讨,对直接测算法的部分指标进行修正,联同间接测算法对1982年—2007年的中国资本外逃规模进行了较为准确的估算。估算结果表明,20世纪90年代是中国资本外逃的高峰时期,进入21世纪,虽然资本外逃随人民币升值预期有所缓和,但依然维持在较高规模。
国外对资本外逃的动机进行研究的理论众多,国内对中国资本外逃的成因分析也是众说纷纭,但真正影响中国资本外逃的原因可能仅是其中的一部分。本文从微观、宏观和国际经济角度对影响中国资本外逃规模的有关因素进行了深入分析,选择了一系列经济变量,如经济增长率、通货膨胀率、外商直接投资、国内外利率等,通过逐步回归的方法,寻找影响中国资本外逃的最重要因素。本文最终确立了资本外逃与外商直接投资、外汇黑市溢价、以及滞后两年的通货膨胀率的线性回归方程,并对各因素对资本外逃影响的贡献程度进行了深入分析,发现资本外逃与外商直接投资之间的相互促进作用十分显著。
我国放松资本管制的历程就是改革开放30年我国外汇管理体制改革的历程,我国虽然在逐步放松资本管制,但资本账户的开放程度应当与本国的经济发展水平及金融监管能力相适应,可以预见我国在相当长的一段时间内仍将保持一定程度的资本管制。在借鉴比较国内外资本管制强度度量指标的基础上,本文对1994年以来我国资本管制强度进行度量,并以此为基础发现我国资本外逃和资本管制存在弱正相关关系。本文再结合货币政策独立性、国内外美元利差、资本流动、投资率和年储蓄率之间关系等方面的分析,对中国资本管制的有效性进行综合评价,发现我国资本管制有效性不高,尤其在限制资本流出方面有效性较弱。
本文还对中国资本外逃的主要渠道,如贸易项目、非贸易项目、资本项目以及其他可能渠道进行深入分析,并在对1997年—2007年中国内地与香港跨境资金流动分析中发现,中国在上述11年期间,有相当规模的资金流入香港。同时,本文从宏观、微观层面详细分析了资本外逃对中国带来的经济影响,分析了中国20世纪90年代以来大规模的资本外逃没有对中国经济增长产生显著影响的原因。最后,本文对我国政府在放松资本管制过程中,如何有效降低资本外逃对我国经济的破坏性,防范经济危机和金融危机提出应当积极推进金融深化、完善产权保护制度、减少经济扭曲及实行托宾税等政策建议。
Start from a literature review of capital flight in China and other countries, this paper points out that the compliance of capital is the key to determine whether the outflow of capital normal or not under the current foreign exchange administration regime in China, and compares the different approaches calculating capital flight applied in China and other countries, and analyzes the connections between direction approach and indirect approach, and adjusts some of the indicators in direct approach, combined with indirect approach, to calculate the scale of capital flight in China from 1982 to 2007. As the result of the calculation, the 1990s is the peak of capital flight in China, and since the beginning of 21st centaury, the amount of capital flight reduces in a certain degree for the expectation of the RMB appreciation, but the scale of capital flight is still large.
There are a plenty of theories discussing the cause of capital flight, but maybe only a few can explain the cause of capital flight in China. On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the cause of capital flight in the macro-economic, micro-economic and international economic perspective, this paper selects a number of economic variables, such as the economic growth rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate in China and other countries to make a stepwise regression analysis and attempts to find out the most important reason that accounts for the capital flight in China. As a result, this paper sets up a linear regression model including capital flight, foreign direct investment, black market exchange premium and two-year lagged inflation rate, and thoroughly discusses the contribution of these factors for the capital flight.
The process of de-regulation of capital control is the history of the reform of foreign exchange administration regime over the past 30 years of reform and opening up. Although China gradually de-regulates capital control, the openness of capital account should be achieved in accordance with Chinese economic development and its financial supervision ability. Hence, a certain degree of capital control will be maintained for a long period in China. By comparing different intensity indicators of capital control used in China and other countries, this paper attempts to measure the intensity indicators of capital control in China since 1994. As the result of the measurement, weak correlation is found between capital flight and capital control. This paper goes on to comprehensively analyze the effectiveness of capital control in China by discussing the independence of the monetary policy, the spread of exchange in the US dollar, capital flow, and the relationship between investment rate and annual saving rate. The result of the analysis is that the effectiveness of capital control in China is insufficient, especially in controlling the outflow of capital.
This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the major channels of capital flight, such as under trade items, non-trade items, capital items and etc. By studying the cross-border capital flow between Hong Kong and Mainland China from 1997 to 2007, a considerable amount of capital flows from Mainland China to Hong Kong. At the same time, this paper analyzes the impact of capital flight over Chinese economy from the macro and micro-economic perspective, and tries to find out why the large-scale capital flight since 1990's did not impose great influence over Chinese economy. In conclusion, this paper makes policy suggestions, such as intensifying the reform of financial sector, improving the property protection system, reducing economic distortion, implementing Tobin tax and other effective measures to reduce the adverse effects of capital flight over Chinese economy and prevent the economic crisis and financial crisis during the process of de-regulation of capital control in China.
国外对资本外逃的动机进行研究的理论众多,国内对中国资本外逃的成因分析也是众说纷纭,但真正影响中国资本外逃的原因可能仅是其中的一部分。本文从微观、宏观和国际经济角度对影响中国资本外逃规模的有关因素进行了深入分析,选择了一系列经济变量,如经济增长率、通货膨胀率、外商直接投资、国内外利率等,通过逐步回归的方法,寻找影响中国资本外逃的最重要因素。本文最终确立了资本外逃与外商直接投资、外汇黑市溢价、以及滞后两年的通货膨胀率的线性回归方程,并对各因素对资本外逃影响的贡献程度进行了深入分析,发现资本外逃与外商直接投资之间的相互促进作用十分显著。
我国放松资本管制的历程就是改革开放30年我国外汇管理体制改革的历程,我国虽然在逐步放松资本管制,但资本账户的开放程度应当与本国的经济发展水平及金融监管能力相适应,可以预见我国在相当长的一段时间内仍将保持一定程度的资本管制。在借鉴比较国内外资本管制强度度量指标的基础上,本文对1994年以来我国资本管制强度进行度量,并以此为基础发现我国资本外逃和资本管制存在弱正相关关系。本文再结合货币政策独立性、国内外美元利差、资本流动、投资率和年储蓄率之间关系等方面的分析,对中国资本管制的有效性进行综合评价,发现我国资本管制有效性不高,尤其在限制资本流出方面有效性较弱。
本文还对中国资本外逃的主要渠道,如贸易项目、非贸易项目、资本项目以及其他可能渠道进行深入分析,并在对1997年—2007年中国内地与香港跨境资金流动分析中发现,中国在上述11年期间,有相当规模的资金流入香港。同时,本文从宏观、微观层面详细分析了资本外逃对中国带来的经济影响,分析了中国20世纪90年代以来大规模的资本外逃没有对中国经济增长产生显著影响的原因。最后,本文对我国政府在放松资本管制过程中,如何有效降低资本外逃对我国经济的破坏性,防范经济危机和金融危机提出应当积极推进金融深化、完善产权保护制度、减少经济扭曲及实行托宾税等政策建议。
Start from a literature review of capital flight in China and other countries, this paper points out that the compliance of capital is the key to determine whether the outflow of capital normal or not under the current foreign exchange administration regime in China, and compares the different approaches calculating capital flight applied in China and other countries, and analyzes the connections between direction approach and indirect approach, and adjusts some of the indicators in direct approach, combined with indirect approach, to calculate the scale of capital flight in China from 1982 to 2007. As the result of the calculation, the 1990s is the peak of capital flight in China, and since the beginning of 21st centaury, the amount of capital flight reduces in a certain degree for the expectation of the RMB appreciation, but the scale of capital flight is still large.
There are a plenty of theories discussing the cause of capital flight, but maybe only a few can explain the cause of capital flight in China. On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the cause of capital flight in the macro-economic, micro-economic and international economic perspective, this paper selects a number of economic variables, such as the economic growth rate, inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate in China and other countries to make a stepwise regression analysis and attempts to find out the most important reason that accounts for the capital flight in China. As a result, this paper sets up a linear regression model including capital flight, foreign direct investment, black market exchange premium and two-year lagged inflation rate, and thoroughly discusses the contribution of these factors for the capital flight.
The process of de-regulation of capital control is the history of the reform of foreign exchange administration regime over the past 30 years of reform and opening up. Although China gradually de-regulates capital control, the openness of capital account should be achieved in accordance with Chinese economic development and its financial supervision ability. Hence, a certain degree of capital control will be maintained for a long period in China. By comparing different intensity indicators of capital control used in China and other countries, this paper attempts to measure the intensity indicators of capital control in China since 1994. As the result of the measurement, weak correlation is found between capital flight and capital control. This paper goes on to comprehensively analyze the effectiveness of capital control in China by discussing the independence of the monetary policy, the spread of exchange in the US dollar, capital flow, and the relationship between investment rate and annual saving rate. The result of the analysis is that the effectiveness of capital control in China is insufficient, especially in controlling the outflow of capital.
This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the major channels of capital flight, such as under trade items, non-trade items, capital items and etc. By studying the cross-border capital flow between Hong Kong and Mainland China from 1997 to 2007, a considerable amount of capital flows from Mainland China to Hong Kong. At the same time, this paper analyzes the impact of capital flight over Chinese economy from the macro and micro-economic perspective, and tries to find out why the large-scale capital flight since 1990's did not impose great influence over Chinese economy. In conclusion, this paper makes policy suggestions, such as intensifying the reform of financial sector, improving the property protection system, reducing economic distortion, implementing Tobin tax and other effective measures to reduce the adverse effects of capital flight over Chinese economy and prevent the economic crisis and financial crisis during the process of de-regulation of capital control in China.
引文
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